Oklo vs. NuScale: Why One Nuclear Stock Could EXPLODE

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]Oklo and NuScale are both riding the same massive nuclear wave.

[00:00:06]AI data centers, they need power, not someday, right now. And they need electricity that runs all day, all night, every day of the year, all without carbon emissions. I mean, you'd think that would make every nuclear stock a winner.

[00:00:22]But that's not how it works. Because Oklo and NuScale, they may look similar on the surface, but underneath, they're taking two very different paths. One wants to own the reactor and sell the power for decades. But the other wants to license design and let the partners do all the heavy lifting. And that difference matters a lot. So, in this video, I'm going to break down the three biggest things that investors need to understand. First, how these two companies actually make money. Second, which one has the stronger regulatory and financial position. And third, what all of that could mean for the companies over the next several years.

[00:01:01]My name is Rick Orford. I'm a Wall Street Journal best-selling author. I've been trading since 1999, and no, I'm not a financial advisor. That is a good thing. I break down the numbers so retail investors like us can make smarter, more confident decisions with our money.

[00:01:15]I want to thank The Motley Fool for sponsoring this video. The Motley Fool is a company that provides investing insight and stock recommendations for investors of all skill sets and risk levels. And you all know how much I love researching new stocks and trying to find the next best investment. So, I'm proud to partner with The Motley Fool to bring you 10 stock picks from their popular product, Stock Advisor. Stock Advisor has beaten the market by almost six times. Go to fool.com/ricko to get your 10 stock picks right now.

[00:01:50]Nuclear energy is having its biggest moment in decades. And it has almost nothing to do with the old power grid and everything to do with AI.

[00:01:59]Data centers are now one of the biggest drivers of electricity demand growth in the United States. The companies building them need power that runs around the clock every day, all year, and they want that power with zero carbon emissions. Solar and wind are great, but they can't do that on their own reliably, but nuclear can. And that gap is exactly where the money is flowing, which brings me to two companies every growth investor is watching right now, Oklo and Nuscale Power. These two companies were recently brought up in my community and I got to say both play in the small modular reactor space or SMRs.

[00:02:40]But the way they make money is very different. The way they deal with regulators is different. For investors, those differences can be the gap between a great long-term setup and a painful mistake. So, let's have a look at the business model because that's the first thing you want to understand before getting excited about either stock. How do these companies actually make money?

[00:03:03]Well, Oklo is going after what's called a vertically integrated model. They build the reactor, they own it, and they run it. And then, it sells the electricity straight to the customers under long-term contracts called power purchase agreements or PPAs.

[00:03:20]Picture a utility company that also happens to own its own technology.

[00:03:24]That's the idea. So, every reactor Oklo puts online can keep paying for years, not once, not just during construction, but potentially over 20, 30, or even 40 years of recurring energy revenue. And that's why the model is so interesting.

[00:03:41]And Oklo is already building its customer pipeline. The company signed a non-binding master power agreement to deploy up to 12 gigawatts of power for Switch, a major data center operator. Now, I want to be clear here about that word non-binding. It doesn't mean guaranteed revenue. It doesn't mean the money is already locked in, but it does show where demand could come from.

[00:04:06]And for a company trying to sell reliable, always-on nuclear power to data centers, that's exactly the type of customer you want to see in the pipeline. But NuScale, it does the complete opposite. NuScale designs the reactor, then licenses that design to utilities and industrial partners who handle building and running the actual plants. So, NuScale doesn't want to own dozens of power plants. It wants to sell the technology and let partners carry more of the project burden. And that makes NuScale a more capital-light model.

[00:04:41]It doesn't have to put the same kind of heavy plant ownership on its balance sheet. And on paper, that sounds very attractive. It would make sense if investors like it. But, there's a trade-off.

[00:04:54]NuScale success depends heavily on partners actually following through.

[00:04:58]The partners have to finance the projects. They have to build the plants.

[00:05:03]They have to operate them. And they have to turn those agreements into real revenue.

[00:05:08]So, with Oklo, the risk here is more about execution and ownership. With NuScale, the risk is more about dependency. And in nuclear, that matters because nothing moves quickly. And that brings me to the next big piece. The regulators.

[00:05:23]Because in nuclear, a permit is everything. And NuScale has got the head start right here. It's the first and only SMR company to receive NRC approval for its SMR design from the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission or the NRC. And that's a very big deal. The NRC approves all commercial nuclear technology in the country. And clearing that certification hurdle is the single biggest and most important step in the industry.

[00:05:54]NuScale cleared it. No other American SMR developer has. So, from a regulatory standpoint, NuScale has something Oklo doesn't have yet. So, that's the bullish case. Through its partner, Entro One Energy, NuScale is also tied to a non-binding framework agreement with the Tennessee Valley Authority to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of SMR capacity across seven states.

[00:06:20]If that turns into binding contracts, it would be the largest SMR deployment program in US history.

[00:06:26]But again, notice the word framework.

[00:06:28]That word is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. These agreements are still non-binding right now, right? There's no locked-in contracts, no guaranteed revenue, there's no certainty that the full deployment actually happens. And that's exactly why NuScale's first quarter 2026 numbers look the way they do.

[00:06:46]Revenue came in around 600,000 for the quarter, which was actually down from previous quarters. And the drop happened because roll-power related licensing and engineering work wrapped up in 2025 and didn't repeat.

[00:07:00]And the operating loss widened to 57 and a half million. Now, there is an upside.

[00:07:06]NuScale ended that quarter with about a billion dollars in total liquidity, and management says that climbed to roughly 1.2 billion by early May.

[00:07:15]So, there's runway, sure, but the cash burn is picking up. And when a company is still waiting for partner-driven projects to become real contracts, that's something I'd be watching very closely.

[00:07:27]Now, let's have a look at Oklo. Oklo's regulatory path, well, it's been bumpier. And I want to be straight about it, right? I mean, the NRC rejected Oklo's original license application back in 2022 because the submission was missing key information. And that was a real setback. You'd honestly expect better from a nuclear company that's trying to build something this important, wouldn't you?

[00:07:51]But today's picture looks very different. In July of last year, Oklo completed a formal pre-application review with the NRC for the Aurora reactor. The NRC confirmed there were no significant gaps in blocking the application from moving forward. That [snorts] doesn't mean the approval is guaranteed and it doesn't mean the hard part is over, but it does mean the path looks clearer than it did just a few years ago.

[00:08:18]Oklo also broke ground at its Idaho site in September 2025 and the target for that to turn on is 2028.

[00:08:26]So, no, Oklo still doesn't have a full NRC commercial license in hand yet. That is a real risk, but the road to getting one seems a lot clearer today, at least more than it's ever been. And that's the setup that investors need to weigh. New Scale's already got the regulatory approval and Oklo has the more interesting long-term business model.

[00:08:48]New Scale has got the head start.

[00:08:51]Oklo has the stronger ownership economics if it can execute. So now, let's get into the money because both of these companies are still pre-revenue at least at scale. They're not mature businesses yet. They're not throwing off large profits. They're still building.

[00:09:05]So, the balance sheet is going to matter a lot.

[00:09:08]Oklo is in a very strong spot. Early in 2026, the company completed an at-the-money equity program that brought in about 1.18 billion in net proceeds.

[00:09:19]As of the first quarter of 2026, Oklo held roughly 2 and 1/2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable debt securities. And that's a serious amount of capital for a company at this stage.

[00:09:31]For fully year 2026, cash outflow from operations is expected to land between 80 and 100 million.

[00:09:39]Property, plant, equipment spending, all of that adds another 350 to 450 million on top. So, yes, Oklo is going to spend a lot of money. That is It's unavoidable with this model. But even with all that spend, the runway is still very long.

[00:09:54]And to me, that matters because the risk of another dilutive raise in the near term is much lower than it was 18 months ago. Now, that doesn't remove execution risk, but it does give Oklo a bit of breathing room. It gives the company time to work with regulators, build the Idaho project, and keep moving customer agreements closer to reality.

[00:10:17]NuScale's liquidity also looks fine on paper. The company ended the first quarter with about a billion dollars in total liquidity. So, this too isn't the company that's running out of cash tomorrow.

[00:10:27]But the concern here is how fast that cash is going out the door.

[00:10:31]Now, management is targeting for positive operating cash flow by the end of 2026, but that depends on landing power purchase agreements and finalizing equipment contracts. And that's an ambitious target. I'd be watching the next two quarters closely to see if NuScale is actually tracking towards it.

[00:10:50]Because it'd be one thing if revenue was already accelerating or if binding contracts were already stacking up or if the cash burn was moving in the right direction. But right now, NuScale still needs partners to convert potential into dollars. Now, before I give you my verdict, I do want to give you a practical way to think about this as a retail investor. If you've been watching either of these two stocks, but think, "Look, they're still too expensive."

[00:11:18]Maybe you want to buy one or the other or both 15, 20, 30% below where it is right now.

[00:11:26]Check this video up here because I talk about how you can sell a cash secured put on a stock you actually want to own and get paid to wait for it to potentially come down to your price. And if it does, you get to buy it and you got paid to buy it. It's not a recommendation, but it is a strategy worth understanding if you're interested in owning a stock, but you don't currently love the price. Because with high growth nuclear names, price matters. Entry matters. And patience, well, it really matters. So, here's my take. If I had to put money into one of these two names right now, I'd probably go with Oklo. Sure, NuScale, their regulatory head start, it's real. I don't want to downplay it. Getting NRC design approval is a major achievement.

[00:12:14]The problem is that it's not turning into revenue fast enough for me.

[00:12:19]The TVA agreement is non-binding. The cash outflow is accelerating and at this stage NuScale is still waiting on other people to move before the money really flows. That's a lot of dependency packed into one single stock.

[00:12:34]But Oklo, they're building something much more compelling as a long-term hold.

[00:12:40]When you factor in the reactor, you own the cash flow.

[00:12:44]Every plant that comes online can potentially put decades of contracted revenue on the books. And the balance sheet is now so strong that near-term dilution is practically not a worry.

[00:12:58]I mean, I'm not saying that Oklo is safe. It isn't. It's still nuclear. It's still regulated. It's still capital intensive.

[00:13:05]And the company still has to prove that it can get licensed, built, operate, and deliver power at scale. But if I had to choose between the two, I'd rather own the company with a model that can compound over time if it works. NuScale may get there, but right now I see more dependency, more waiting, and less direct control over for economics.

[00:13:26]But, whichever one you choose, if you choose one, neither of them are going to be a quick trade. Neither is going to be doubling next quarter, I think, just because AI needs more power. Maybe the market gets more excited. Maybe headlines push these names around. Maybe one agreement completely changes the story.

[00:13:48]But, if you're going to make a decade-long bet on how America powers its most crucial infrastructure, I think Ocloo gives you the better shot at owning something that can actually compound. So, that's my take. What about you? Which of these two companies would you put your money on? And why? And are you already? And did I get this analysis right? Did I forget something? Uh should I have added something? Let me know all of that and everything else you'd like in the comments below. And of course, while you're there, don't forget to like and subscribe because it helps others find this video. It supports the channel, and it makes sure that you don't miss out on my next deep dive.

[00:14:27]Well, that's it for me today. Thank you so much for watching, and I'll see you next time.