(Starting With Bitcoin)Why Everything Is Selling Off

追加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]So, this is a quick emergency update video about what's happening to the market because AI stocks are selling off and Bitcoin is selling off and it's sort of leading the way for this huge correction. Now, even if you're not interested in Bitcoin, I think you should still watch this video because Bitcoin tends to be a leading indicator for what's about to happen. And Bitcoin already started to go down before the rest of the market. And there's a couple of different theories of why this is happening. And each of them is extremely interesting. But arguably the most interesting one that I've seen is coming from this technical point of view. And again, credit to Benjamin Cowan for this. If you don't follow him, go check out his YouTube channel. It's fascinating. And one of the most interesting things I've learned from him is this. When the price of Bitcoin falls below something called the 50week moving average, the bull cycle, aka the good days, are over, that 50week average price for this cycle was roughly $13,000, which we crossed a couple weeks ago. And that was enough to cause a cascade of selling from investors that pay attention to this stuff because to them, the prophecy has sort of been fulfilled, right? This also happened while everything else was still kind of looking good. We got regulatory clarity, more Bitcoin treasury companies buying, positive news about Bitcoin legislation.

[00:01:28]We had Harvard University buy hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin.

[00:01:32]Everything around Bitcoin was saying this thing should be going up, but it didn't. So, the question is why and how does this affect everything else? So, in this video, I want to share with you all the super interesting theories about what's happening. And let me just start right here. I mentioned this one before, but I want to repeat it because in the world of economics, in the world of investing, there's two major forces that try to explain what's happening to the world. The first one is the technical force, technical analysis. The people that look at the chart of an investment, they draw some lines, and then they're able to guess what's going to happen to the market. Okay, that's force number one. The other force is the macro force.

[00:02:14]And this is the force that looks at the bigger picture of the world. Like for example, what's happening geopolitically speaking? Is there a threat of war? Is there a change to politics? It looks at the central bank level, at the Fed, at the interest rates, monetary policy, things like that. But one of the biggest questions that we just can't answer still in the world of economics is which of these two forces best explains our reality? So using this point of view, I want to help explain the theories of what's happening so you can hopefully get a better idea of what's about to happen next. So with that said, let's get into it. Hi, my name is Andre Jick.

[00:02:54]Hope you're doing well. Come for the finance and stay for the market. So let me start with the technical side of the force because I actually think this is one of the best explanations for what is happening. Again, this is something I've been following very closely and I'm impressed with how accurate all of this has been. And again, this is full credit to Benjamin Cowan for sharing this on his YouTube channel. Now, the whole idea behind technical analysis is that the stock market or any market in this case are just social systems. And when they create a certain pattern, it can trigger certain things to happen. Now, I'm going to use Bitcoin as an example, but this is true of all investments people look at. First, let me show you this right here. This is kind of mind-blowing. It shows you how long it took for Bitcoin to go from the bottom of the market to the top of the market. It took roughly 1,50 days for this cycle. But what's also very interesting is that the last cycles, cycles 3 and 4, also took the exact same amount, 1,50ish days. Now, check this out. I know it looks complicated, but this chart shows kind of the same thing. Bitcoins followed the same pattern, but alternating from the all-time low to the all-time high and then all-time high to the all-time low. So, for example, in 2015, from the all-time low to the all-time high, it took Bitcoin 1,50ish days. And then in 2017, from the all-time high to the all-time low, it took Bitcoin about a year, 364 days.

[00:04:37]Then in 2018, from the all-time low to the all-time high, it took again 1,50ish days. And again, from the all-time high in 2021 to the all-time low, it took 364 days. Well, guess how long it took us to go from the all-time low to the all-time high in this cycle. 1,50 to 1,64-ish days. Which means if this pattern continues, we should reach the all-time low 364 days from our all-time high, which happened on October 6th of this year.

[00:05:20]That means we are on around October 5th, 2026 when Bitcoin could reach the all-time low of this cycle. Now, regardless of what you think about these kinds of things, I think it's extremely compelling, and I don't think we should ignore it. That's just technical force explanation number one. There's a second thing we should look at. Now, before I explain it though, here's something else I've been personally doing to keep stacking stats while all of this plays out with the Gemini credit card, the sponsor of this segment. It's a card I've been using for a while now. All opinions are my own, and they were not influenced by Gemini. I use it like any regular credit card for gas, groceries, and travel, but I earn Bitcoin every time I use it. It has no annual fee, and you can see rates and fees in the description down below for more info.

[00:06:04]You get up to 4% back in over 50 cryptocurrencies instantly, and you can choose which one you want. Personally, I have mine set to Bitcoin, but that's 4% back on gas, transit, and ride share, 3% on dining, 2% on groceries, and 1% on everything else. It's a Mastercard World Elite. I've used it internationally with no issues. And every time I use it, it adds Bitcoin to my portfolio. And the best part is you're investing as you spend. In fact, according to Gemini, card holders who earned and held their Bitcoin for 1 year saw an average appreciation of 279%. And those are not your typical credit card points. So, if you're interested, click the link in the description down below or go to gemini.com/andre to get $200 in Bitcoin when you spend 3,000 in your first 90 days. Thank you Gemini for sponsoring this segment. And now, let's get back to it. Now, the second part of the technical force explanation is to look at something called the 50we moving average. And here's how this works. If you take the average closing price, meaning the price at the end of the week for the last 50 weeks, you get a certain line on a chart, a price. And what Ben noticed is that when Bitcoin is in a bull cycle or a bull market, it has always stayed above that line. But when Bitcoin's price went below that 50week moving average level, that meant it was the end of the bull cycle and the beginning of the bare market. And we broke below that price point for a few weeks in a row now, which is obviously not good. That price point is $13,000 which for a few weeks now we have been below that point.

[00:07:37]Now let's take a look at the macro force, the big picture stuff. Because this theory says that what's happening to the markets right now has nothing to do with what I just explained. Instead, there's a bigger force, an invisible force that moves the markets to behave the way they do. And according to this theory, this was all because of what's called a change to global liquidity.

[00:08:01]Here's example number one, Japan. Why does Japan matter? Well, it matters because remember how the world is structured. We have the United States, right? The police officer who controls the supply of money, exporting mostly the dollar and technology. But then we have China, which is the global factory of the world. It makes all the stuff for everyone. And we had Japan as the biggest interestfree lender because their interest rates were zero, actually negative, which meant something called the carry trade was possible. Long story short, investors borrow Japanese yen at low rates. They take that money and invest it somewhere else for a bigger return like US Treasury bonds.

[00:08:48]Guaranteed difference on the spread.

[00:08:50]That's called the carry trade. But long story short, it was a very easy and a free way to make a guaranteed return on your money. But now that's changed because Japan's interest rates are going up, which means no more borrowing free money and a change of incentive. meaning money right now could be leaving dollar denominated assets and going back to their homeland where interest rates are high enough to make sense keeping that money at home. Now yes technically US interest rates are higher than Japan's but once you factor in the cost of converting yen into dollars and back and forth and the currency hedging costs the yield advantage basically disappears. In some cases it even turns negative. So whether you're a Japanese pension fund or a global hedge fund, it now makes more sense to sort of unwind those trades and to sell those dollar assets and to bring the money back home. That is a very big deal. But there's also a second change to liquidity and it should be good news technically, but investors perceive this as bad news. And here's what happened. The Fed announced that on December 1st they'll be ending QT or quantitative tightening. Now that is good, but it's also technically bad because when the Fed ends QT, it usually means they are seeing signs that something somewhere in the financial system is starting to break or at least is fragile. Of course, the Fed is not going to tell us that. So, they're like, we're just doing this to be ahead of the curve so we don't end up causing a recession. But investors are like, "Well, we don't really believe you.

[00:10:36]Circular funding in the AI bubble, right? The job market is slowing down.

[00:10:40]Consumer spending is mostly propped up by the wealthiest people. We have a K-shaped economy. That's not good." But regardless of what the reasons are, the point is risk assets, which are things like Nvidia, things like Bitcoin, they start to sell off because investors are like, I'm just going to sit this one out and wait until all of this cools down.

[00:11:03]And again, it just so happens that Bitcoin is the canary in the coal mine, as they say. It's the first thing to be affected. Why? Because it's the easiest investment to sell. It can be sold on weekends when the markets are closed, so it reacts first. By comparison, if you're a real estate investor, you can't just panic sell in a day. So, some investments, because they're easier to sell, aka more liquid, they move first, which is arguably why Bitcoin started going down before the rest of the market. So what you're seeing in the technicals, these price charts, that is just a reflection of investors anticipating all these changes and all their worries. And that's the macro force explanation. Now, there's a third theory that's neither technical nor macro. It's more human psychology. It comes directly from the Bitcoin community themselves. Fun fact, Bitcoin was allegedly on the Epstein list.

[00:12:09]Apparently, there was funding that happened in 2015, which doesn't look good, but it ties into this much bigger story. So, here's what happened. What most people don't actually know is that for the last few months, Bitcoin's been fighting itself over the idea of what it's supposed to be. Like, what is Bitcoin is the question. To be or not to be, right? And most OG Bitcoiners believe that Bitcoin is supposed to only represent money. That's it. But the newest version of Bitcoin run by the core development team which was allegedly funded by some sketchy people on that list made an update that got rid of an old data restriction. It's called OP return. Now, this feature is what allows people to attach a piece of data to their Bitcoin transaction. Now, this was always possible with Bitcoin, but this update increased the size of how big that data could be. So, now this new version that's being pushed says Bitcoin isn't just money, but data of all sorts, pictures, videos, whatever. It's an immutable data transfer protocol. Now, a lot of Bitcoin investors are really upset about this because it now introduces a new way to attack Bitcoin because now if someone wants to, they could attach pictures or videos to a transaction that will forever live on the blockchain. The problem with that though is if someone were to attach something illegal like the people who might have been funding this project for their own self-interest in 2015 allegedly that makes it potentially unusable from an ethical and illegal point of view. How? Because this opens the door for people to spam the blockchain with things like NFTTS and memes and other random files which over time not only increases the block size making it harder to run your own node and to be decentralized but also changes the meaning of what Bitcoin is supposed to be. I can make an entire video talking about this, but that's how you can basically co-opt Bitcoin from the inside. That's how you attack it. Now, whether you personally care about this story or not is not really the point.

[00:14:33]The point is this is another possible explanation for why some Bitcoin holders decided to sell. They're like, "You know what? I'm going to sit this one out while Bitcoin figures itself out." And that fear is causing them to sell in addition to all the other things we just explained. And the fourth theory that sort of explains everything that's happening right now sort of ties everything together. And full credit to Jordi Visser for coming up with this, but his theory says that Bitcoin is having its equivalent of an IPO moment.

[00:15:03]Now, an IPO happens in the stock market.

[00:15:05]It stands for initial public offering and it's when a company goes public and investors could buy shares of that company. But Bitcoin is obviously not a company. So, what does that mean? What it means for Bitcoin is early investors are cashing out. They're taking their profits because for the first time in history, they actually can. There's enough liquidity. There's enough money now to sell and get their money out. But hold on. If Bitcoin is going to a million, why would they ever sell, right? Well, it's because what you have to understand is that there are people that walk among us right now, and you don't know who they are. I mean, you might be one of them, but some of them are already billionaires. Here's a recent example of a wallet that's been cashing out hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin. Earlier this year, there was also Galaxy Digital, which processed a $9 billion Bitcoin sale for just one person, one wallet. At that point, would you care if Bitcoin went to a million? No. I I'd be happy with 9 billion. Thank you. Right. But the point is, if they had tried to sell their investment even just a couple years ago, they could have crashed the entire market, they wouldn't be able to get what their investment was worth because there wasn't enough demand to buy it. Just because you have a billion dollars worth of something on paper doesn't mean you'll get a billion dollars for it. But now, thanks to Bitcoin ETFs, there are companies buying Bitcoin. There's countries buying Bitcoin. And for the first time ever, those OG Bitcoiners can now sell a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin without crashing the price. So, what we're seeing is a transfer of wealth from the few early investors to now the masses.

[00:16:53]This phase is what we're in right now.

[00:16:56]It's slow. It could take a whole year for us to reach the point of those people selling out of their investment, but this is what it looks like and it's a long journey down. Again, it could take us 364 days roughly. So, that's Jordy Viser's theory and this is Bitcoin's IPO. I thought it was a very interesting and very credible theory.

[00:17:17]Now, if you made it this far, here's what I'm personally doing. I am not selling my Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin will bounce back regardless of what happens to it externally or internally like the new updates been going on. And I think the financial incentives of Bitcoin will always realign themselves to fix any issue that it comes across. But I'm also not selling stocks. I'm not touching my long-term portfolio at all. My dividend portfolio is still paying me every single month. And if we do get in a sideways market or a down market, the portfolio should do pretty well. If you want to see it in full and track your own dividends, the link is down below.

[00:17:51]But what's funny to me about all of these theories is that if everyone knows about them, will they still be true? And I don't know the answer to that question. And also, all of these theories, I think, could be true, but on a weighted scale. Like some theories explain the price today more than others. If this were uh an S&P 500 index of all the truths that explain this, they would be weighted by how important they are. But what their individual weights are is a question that I don't know the answer to. The best I can do is to explain it to the best of my very flawed ability. So whatever ends up happening, I'm going to continue to dollar cost average into the market. But I'd love to hear your thoughts about this. What do you think is happening?

[00:18:39]I'd love to know your theory. As always, I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day. Smash the like button. Subscribe if you haven't already. I'd love to see you back here next week. I'll see you soon.