In a rapidly rising market, investors should consider taking profits when stocks trade significantly above expected levels, as corrections often follow periods of aggressive gains; companies with strong government integration and consistent revenue growth, such as Palantir and Big Bear, may offer compelling investment opportunities despite short-term market volatility.
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Deep Dive
PLTR-BBAI STOCKS ARE GOING TO RUN THIS YEARAdded:
Friends, top of the evening, morning, wherever you're at. I hope you all are doing well. Good god almighty, we're breaking records again here in the market. S&P almost at 7,400 points. This is insanity.
Uh Dow, Nasdaq, uh Bitcoin running, the VIX. Oh my god, the Russell. I I mean, what are we talking about here? So, obviously, I I think this is just another in Listen, you're not going to find someone who's more bullish long-term in the market than me. I'm making the juice. I'm drinking the juice. I'm serving it out here. I'm very bullish on our North American stock market. Our companies are mad. We are leading the way. No one will ever come close to beating us.
But, I do want to say I think this is a clear-cut This is one of those days where if you have positions that you're like, "Wow, I'm really up. Wow, what should I do? Wow, is this going to last?" This is one of those days maybe where, you know, I don't normally tell people to like do stuff. I don't think I do at least, but hey, maybe take some profit because this is one of those days where you might see significant uh you know, loss going into what's coming here. And I I will explain what I mean by that. I think this is just a clear-cut of things are running very aggressive right now.
The S&P is trading over 21, 22 points of what it should. There are, you know, the mags up running it really hot again. And yes, why shouldn't it? We're in This is the thing where we've got another supposedly Iran deal or clean-up we're working on here. Oil's been taken back down again. But, we've been here time and time again. You know, and and this is where I fear people will be like, "Oh, things are back in order.
I'll buy X. I'll buy >> [laughter] >> X." And then next week they're like, "What the happened?"
So, it's really you have to understand how this market's working. You know, I think this is a clear-cut day of like, "This is really not the day to buy. This is the day to sell." Um now, saying that, obviously, I want to talk about Palantir. I think this is a trick that is being served up for people who are uh, you know, doubtful in Palantir. And I think Big Bear back up and running here, and we'll talk about that at, you know, they both have come out with quarterlies this week, and they were good. I mean, obviously, Palantir is just unbelievably doing well.
So, um, I hope you're doing well. I really do mean that. We are We are You have to understand, fundamentally, we are in a historical moment in the market. And last year was a historical moment. This year may be even a more of a bigger, better year in the market. Um, but I Here's what I'll say before I go into Palantir.
I think there will be huge consolidation at the end of May. I'm going to go ahead and warn you. And I hope I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong and right on this, too.
But, I think there will be consolidation at the end of May. I think once we get these Nvidia, Broadcom quarterlies out, it's going to be very choppy out there.
I think it's going to be like, uh, here comes the storm. Because, you know, obviously, May May 15th is when Jerome steps down, Kevin takes over. But, after we get done with this situation of Nvidia, Broadcom, it may happen before this, too. And this is I'm just kind of, you know, trying to throw darts in the dark here.
There will be some consolidation at some point this this month, 100% because we're running so hot right now. Um, we got Kevin Walsh coming in here, and he's going to bring new rules, new regulations. What's going to happen? And not that they'll be bad. I This isn't me being like mean towards Kevin whatsoever. I I I'm not. I'm just saying, historically, when a new Fed chairman comes in here, the market goes, "Whoa, pump the brakes." Because it's a new principal on site, and the market goes, "You know, we need to see what this person's about." Now, I do think there there be rate cuts this year at some point. I think they will be used later on in the year, obviously. And if And if this is the real deal, if this is really it with this Iran stuff, and they start getting oil under control, oil gas is going to be expensive at least until August, September, at least, because things are so messed up at this point in that field.
Not talking politics, I'm talking strictly this is investing world. And obviously, politics stuff bleeds right into the investing world. Um so, with this, um let's talk about Palantir, let's talk about Big Bear, and uh yeah, here we go. Now, here's what I want to say. Obviously, I so I don't get a letter in the mail from either of these companies, from Kevin or Alex here, saying uh cease and desist this picture. This is obviously AI. This is not a real picture of them, but I am uh I wish it was a real picture, that'd be great. But both, obviously, Kevo and Alex here, they have strong ties, obviously, to DC. They have strong ties to Trump. Uh you know, Alex, Trump, we there's video, there's you know, everything of them talking together. And Palantir, obviously, is so integrated into the government at this point, it's insane. I think it's one of the biggest companies in the last decade to be so integrated into the United States government.
[snorts] And that's not going to change, you know? And for people going like, "Well, once, you know, Trump's out of you know, gone from office, then you know, things will change." Not necessarily. I mean, these contracts are going crazy amount into, you know, some of us are going to have kids in college by time these contracts either get renewed or just, you know, end. Um they go a long ways. And And right now, Palantir, you know, it's not really Palantir Palantir was here before Trump. You know, Palantir actually showed up in the Biden years. So, for someone that doesn't know that, I'm I'm I hate to burst your bubble, but that, you know, I I just want to be honest and truthful with you here. They were here in the Biden years and it but it obviously for the person, you know, the things have picked up pretty aggressive here.
So, um I am saying that I I think Big Bear and Palantir will be here for a while. And you know, Palantir's already soaked up and sucked up so much revenue out of the United States government and they still are.
They just got that agriculture deal for $300 million. And that came out of nowhere and that's just going to that's going to be bleeding into the next quarterly.
>> [snorts] >> But I am bullish that Big Bear is that they could just get a big deal here. Something could happen. I know I know I've been spewing this garbage since last year, but it really is this thing of my God, if they just got one more deal, this would really be nice for us. So, um going right into Big Bear. Big Bear right now is climbing. So, recap what happened. I don't want to go over the whole quarterly's because it's not that entertaining, but they Q1 of last year was just a hair bigger than Q1 for this year. I mean, it was like just right there.
But saying they missed, it's good and it's bad. So, here's the situation.
Quarterly's from last year kept getting worse. It was like, what the freak is going on? We're getting deals, we're getting partnerships, but quarterly's are getting worse. What the flip is going on?
So, the fact that Big Bear started off this year at least back up in this $34 million for 34 and some change uh million dollars in range this year, it's fantastic. Now, right now, um Big Bear is projected somewhere and this is a huge ballpark of where their projection is right now, but they're projected to be around 135 million 135 million to 165 million this year in revenue. Now, that's not a ton, but you you obviously we're hopeful that they at least get I mean, I'm hoping they get at least 160 for God's sake. And that's still less than what was projected for last year. So, this is the thing of where it's still early in the year. Possibly, you know, deals can show up here. Trump is more than likely going to try to get this bill passed for more defense money coming up here where it's a 1.5 billion 1.5 trillion dollars spending bill what they can have for defense spending.
Will Big Bear get more deals? More than likely, probably. They already have a strong relationship with United States government. Now, recently here, the stock is having this 1 2 3 pop. Now, these first two bubbles here, this was pre-quarterly. Quarterly comes out, now we're getting some run. Now, today, obviously, good day in the market. Big Bear is running with the big dogs here.
It's moving. We're seeing, you know, a high push back up into this 440 zone.
Fantastic. Organic push, phenomenal.
But, this is where, as much as I love Big Bear and I'm bullish that they can change their stars this year, maybe at some point, um I [snorts] do want to warn you 100%. I don't want to come on here and be like, "Oh my God, it's going to $10." I that's that I would be lying to you. Now, to split that comment in half here, >> [snorts] >> we've seen Big Bear run to $10, obviously. Last year, we had some big moments. Big Bear got into this moment of last year where it was getting pushed around with day traders, swing traders.
It was in this moment of, you know, software was a huge, you know, topic in the market. Palantir getting a lot more attention.
And now we've moved into this place of where security software stocks, they're just not getting love. But, if you look at this, it I mean, look at where we're at right now. We're like in a full circle right now. We're in a full circle with the market. So, look at like 2024, the beginning of 2025, where Nvidia was crushing it and and Nvidia was, you know, coming off a stock split. People were like, "Chips, chips, you can make that much money off chips?"
And then we started to look at like and this is like the mid and you know, somewhere in 2024 here to memory trying to correct, you know, think here but you know, AMD was a company that was at that point getting their, you know, stuff together. They had a, you know, the new CEO who she has redirected that company 100%. You know, AMD was a cheap stock back, you know, 2 years ago.
But chip stocks and data centers were getting a lot of attention then. They were getting a lot of attention, you know, in 2024. Okay, boom, we go into 2025.
Um, 2024, big year for chips. 2025 comes, what happens? Software security stocks.
They get a lot of attention. Palantir is the golden child of the stock market.
Big Bear is running, getting more attention than it deserves and I say that as someone who loves Big Bear but it was getting more attention than it deserved. We were seeing these huge swings in Big Bear on a monthly basis where it was like buy it for four, sell it for seven, you know, buy it for five, sell it for eight. You know, it was this back and forth and like, "Oh my god, this is crazy." And it was getting talked about everywhere. I mean, I I I think I I still stand by this. I think I was the first YouTuber person to talk about Big Bear and then once that started happening, everyone was talking about it. I don't think anybody's talking about it now. I don't know who's talking about it but >> [snorts] >> um, this is a place of where, you know, Big Bear has consolidated down to this $4 range.
I don't think it's crazy for Big Bear to organically move back up into a five to $6 range off of, "Hey, something could happen here." I don't think that's that crazy >> [snorts] >> because they've got cash in the bank.
Uh, they've got debt under control. They got the sales acquisition done. And more than that, they probably will start to scoop up some deals here. I would imagine something's got to happen here. So, I think there is good elements occurring here, but the thing is you know, it's like it's almost like every company that really gets a big push, they have at least one or two big giant contracts. You you you see this in in the market all time where like a company like a stock for instance that, you know, is sitting around like a five to ten dollar position and then they just they just get a huge contract.
Let's think of something like Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab was on the market for quite some time and like people are like, I don't know about this stock. And then they got that huge government contract.
Oh my god, you know, now that's Look at that stock now. But there's a lot of stocks like that. One There's a lot of companies like that. And you know, I do think this is a place where Big Bear could be kind of in that and where software and AI is going, I don't think it's going to slow down. I think it's just going to keep getting more progressive. So, with that, you know, watch Big Bear. I don't want to sell you a bag of lies here. I really don't. I I I would be very careful buying Big Bear above six dollars. If we do see go above six dollars, >> [snorts] >> that is very high. That is very high until we see more deals start to pop up here. Now, if they start coming out with, you know, hey, we got you know, a deal for 50, 30, you know, 60 million dollars. That's different, you know, then what do we know? That is new money, that is new capital, that is new liquid cash that is going to flow into these quarterly's and keep this high momentum in this 30 mid or higher 30 [snorts] million dollar range with quarterly's, which is fantastic, you know, that that's really good. So, yeah, we're going to watch Big Bear. I'm very I'm I I'm I'm feeling good. Okay, moving into Palantir conversation here. So, Palantir, what you know, what's crazy here is that Palantir is still Palantir is now trading in this 130, possibly 120 zone, anchoring in right there. But, this is this place now of where Palantir is now closer to $2 billion quarterly's than $1 billion quarterly's compared to three quarterly's ago. And by Q2 here, Q3 especially, we're going to knock out that $2 billion quarterly zone from what it looks like.
And yes, this is bullish conversation.
This is not a Michael Bury conversation.
This is not a well, maybe, you know, in two four, you know, like I said earlier, I think I said this earlier when I was yapping at the beginning here, you know, yeah, Big Bear's been with the government here before T-Pain walked in here. And this is a place where they'll be here for a while, while more than likely that, you know, when they're so integrated into the foundation of what's going on here, it's going to be hard to rip them out here. And I don't think any by is going to do that anytime soon for whoever is the next person at the helm here as the president. So, right now, you know, I think the theory, the thesis of the Alex Karp kind of conversation here when he says that by 2030, you know, Palantir may be in should be in the range of well into yearly quarterly's will be anywhere from 30 to 40 billion dollars. Yeah, I think I think that's possible. I I'm even more I'm I'm drinking the juice even a little more here where I'm a little more bullish on that, you know.
Look at something like Anthropic, you know, with Claude and and Mythos, what they're doing right now. I do wonder, and this really hasn't been talked about, this is pure gossip what I'm about to say here. Um you know, may is there a place of where Palantir creates their own AI system for the public? You know, something like what Anthropic has with Claude, maybe, possibly? I mean, could you imagine? You know, that would be that'd be huge. Um and now we're really talking Palantir and, you know, Anthropic being, you know, kind of in this place of, you know, competitors with each other. And I I don't want to say that because it is apples and oranges when you compare Anthropic and Palantir 100%.
And I, you know, and I I said this yesterday, so I don't want to say it too much more, but when Anthropic comes to market here at the end of the year, from what we're being told, it IPs comes up here, I I think it's fantastic. And and what I was saying earlier about, you know, this place of where chips were were in this full circle now where where chips were getting so much attention in data centers, you know, about a year and a half ago, you know, we're going through that again, but at the end of this year, does the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 start again where software, software security stocks, just software stocks in general start to get a lot more attention. And this is where Palantir runs way back up into this you know, $200 range. It's pretty obvious by the end of this year, by well in the Q3, Q4 especially, we're going to be in $2 billion zone somewhere. Anthropic's in the market.
Uh, Palantir's running hot here on on quarterlies, more cash in the bank, who knows what they're doing by that time.
Um, you know, we might see even Big Bear being, you know, hitched to this ride where these software stocks, AI companies like this, they go berserk again. You know, really think about that. I mean, this is the market shifts with with attention.
We've seen this now for 2 years where the market is just shifting with attention. Like, this is what we're liking now. Then this is what we like.
Then this is what we like.
We could just be in a full rotation right now with this. So, buying Palantir at this 130 zone, this might be a huge, you know, uh, golden goose moment in front of a lot of investors where it's like get it right now. Get it as much as you can because this may not last. I I Like I said, I this is not a Michael Berry conversation. I am I've been through this with Michael Berry before. You know, this Michael Berry stuff going through this with Palantir, I've been through this with Michael Berry with Tesla. He was on the Tesla a few years back saying Tesla's not going to do more, that stock's going to drop, blah blah blah.
That is not I I I think it's pretty obvious, you know, Palantir Wall Street is so for it and retail is still heavy in it. It's not going to go below 100.
They're They're not going to allow it because the closer it gets to those lower numbers, it's going to get bought up by it's going to get bought up very very aggressive here. You know, Kathy just came out Kathy Wood's Ark Invest just came out what 3 weeks 3 4 weeks ago at this point and bought up a ton of Palantir.
Um you know, and that was when it was in that 120 zone. So, you know, that kind of tells us there's there there is we've seen this a few times now in this sell-off with Palantir. There's a strong anchors in this 120 zone and it's getting below that it's it's going to take something dramatic and right now we're just not seeing dramatics in the market. For the market to get back to even a 68 for the S&P, which is crazy to say, for the S&P to get back to a 68 67 point range, you know, that that's going to take some real chaos in the market. You know, going back to 771, I don't think that's that crazy. I think we'll probably see that here soon enough in May at the end of May here, but um yeah, I I think Palantir is obviously a clear-cut indication get as much as you can. The buy button you can't hit it fast enough.
And Big Bear, if you're willing to take the time, the risk, yeah. I mean, you're waiting on bigger things to happen there. You're relying on this company that they are going to push forward into this industry and they're going to get more deals.
So, will that happen? I mean, it's really a a moment of you've got to wait and see here, but I and I I'll say this cuz I didn't finish it, but I do think when the Entropic comes to market here, I would not look at that as a threat. I would look at that as that is good. Look at it, you know, people were having this conversation 2 years ago when AMD was well under $100. You know, Nvidia was getting so much attention, you know, even right before they had a stock split. And people thought like, I'm not going to Why would I buy this AMD company? You know, they're they're not going to do anything like this.
Well, look what's happened now. You know, they're both getting attention. They're both getting incredible deals. Look at Intel now. You know, what is Intel going to look like in 2 years?
Um you know, chips [clears throat] are not they're not going away. They're it's just getting stronger and you know, we saw the first phase of software what it did. Well, Entropic can kind of help that market, too, where it gets crazier.
You see what I'm trying to say here? So, I think competition is good.
And this is going to be a place where we could see I I'm very bullish on software going forward, 100%. And Microsoft, obviously, you know, that's a whole 'nother conversation, but Microsoft will be leading the way in a lot of that, too. So, friends, I wish you all the best of luck. Let me know what you think here. Um yeah, it's going to be a fun time. By the way, once again, fake photo, AI photo. I thought it was funny.
Um and hopefully Kevin, Alex, you know, I it's it's just a joke. It's just a joke. Guys, I'll talk to you soon. Bye, everyone.
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