Bitcoin COLLAPSES To $65,000 (Emergency Update)

Ajouté : 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]Bitcoin has smashed through $70,000 which was key structural support. It's very close to breaking down from the mid60s which basically leads us to a new cycle low. There are a few major questions that I'm seeing pop up on my socials exam YouTube when it comes to the Bitcoin bare market. When is this going to end? Is it likely to see another rally? And why is this happening? We're going to try and answer those questions today. So, make sure you hit the subscribe button if you haven't already. and of course like the content so that you let YouTube know you want to see more of this and less of the noise in your news feeds. Now the last thing I'll mention is my TIA channel, the investor accelerator. I'm looking at more things to do with the 18-year cycle. So if that interests you, there is a link in the video description as well looking at real estate, bonds, the economy, stock markets, uh in a broad macro sense. So without further ado, let's have a look at Bitcoin as it currently breaks down from $66,000.

[00:01:03]Currently testing 65 for the first time since the base in April. Basically, it bounced from that point in April that ran to 83,000. That's where a lot of the permables got very excited. If you haven't heard of that term before, it's basically the type of influencers that remain bullish on Bitcoin no matter what. They have a long-term well or they say they got a long-term view that Bitcoin will eventually break to new all-time highs. But I'd like to present you with the data rather than the hopeium. We can all indulge in some hopeium, but I think the data is is what is going to make us more money. Now, what I had circled on the chart here are the tops for Bitcoin. Pretty significant highs. And at these points, this is where retail gets most excited. This is the Bitcoin ETF flows uh that you're looking at here on the chart. And basically around each of these significant local tops, the most interest came in across retail. It could also be seen as institutions getting in because this is the ETF inflow. So no matter whether it's small money, big money, smart money, dumb money, whatever the terminology is, people are buying the most around these highs and they get the most noisy around the tops. And it didn't change this time, especially in May. I can see it across my socials. In May when Bitcoin ran to 83K, I was called to all sorts. It's no basically you can change your opinion now. It's running to new highs. The low is in at 60K. Now, I think that's why it's really important to stick with your analysis and understand where the invalidation levels are because up until that point in May, we did not see an invalidation level for Bitcoin. And this was telling us that we were likely going to see lower prices. We saw the market begin to roll. And that's typically what happens in a distribution pattern. So this and at the moment it looks like it's running into a distribution pattern. So we've definitely seen a distribution from this shorter term move. Now for the longer term, if the low breaks here, and that's the word that I I must use because we haven't got the break yet. If this 60k low breaks, then this is all confirmed as redistribution on the way down.

[00:03:22]Otherwise, it's redistribution at the top and then potentially more accumulation here. But we're we're not at that phase yet. We have not seen a base come in. So we have big volume at each of the peaks starting from a year ago and continuing through the bare market telling us that there is selling happening at each of these peaks. We haven't seen enough stopping volume at the bottoms yet. So looking at where the buyers are actually stepping back in for a sustainable period of time. We have seen increased volume when the market has broken down, but it continues to result in further declines. So, you got some volume at the lows. So, here's some more volume on the way down and then the market has eventually broken back beneath those levels. That tells us that sellers are still in control and we don't have that change yet. It's very similar to each of the the prior cycles when we take volume into consideration.

[00:04:24]We didn't have ETFs back in 2022, but we definitely did have exchange volume. And so, if you look at it on a longer time frame, just to clear out some of the noise, the volume bars to the downside are much greater than the volume bars to the upside. If you take an even longer outlook here on the monthly chart, let's get to 2022. The red months uh far exceed anything prior in basically the distribution pattern. That was almost 12 months of distribution.

[00:04:56]The market came down more red months, still an increase in volume here. And that's where you start to see the likes of the buyers coming back in on those down months because there is no further uh decline or no further decline straight away. and you're starting to see a bit more support coming in. This was FTX, so basically the biggest event crypto has ever seen. Collapse, huge volume, and it still held out the following month in December. That's the sort of sign that we're looking for to confirm that the bare market is over.

[00:05:34]volume stops being so high for one on the decline, but if it is high here, you're not seeing the price go down any further. Then you get a reversal. That's exactly what we need to see and we haven't seen that yet. The next piece of the puzzle which we are trying to understand here when it comes to markets and that's essentially all we're doing is trying to decide or figure out what buyers and sellers are actually doing with their money as opposed to what they're saying because anyone can lie.

[00:06:07]They often do just like the perma bulls do and the perma bears will also do the same thing. We want to see what where the money's actually going. So that is a look at it when it comes to the volume.

[00:06:17]We haven't seen those those change yet.

[00:06:19]Now when it comes to the sentiment, this has worked very very well with lows and highs. We have extreme fear. This is 2022 on the way down. Putting in singledigit readings. This is all majority single digits. Rallies up breaks the extreme fear into then fear which is orange here and then yellow just a touch and pulls back into extreme fear this time double digits. So less fear and the the price came down again.

[00:06:52]It basically came tested those lows potentially what we're in right now.

[00:06:55]Maybe we are about to go through this and track sideways for a period of time in the 60,000s. No one knows for sure.

[00:07:03]That could be the case that we're going through at the moment. Then there was the FTX event. Oh, just before that actually had a little rally here which was able to reset the fear from extreme fear just to fear. So, a little less fear. Then the collapse and the sentiment did drop back into extreme fear. But note that overall the sentiment was able to sustain the fear even though price continued to put in lower lows. This is also just a slightly lower low here. Then the accumulation takes place very very quietly. In this case, the the sentiment had rallied into fear and then we get the breakout. This happens. This is a process that occurred over six to seven months and I suspect it's going to be similar this time just like it was back in 2018 2019. Look at those bars. Absolutely brutal and boring when it comes to holding and you could basically go on holidays and nothing happens for that entire period. Just small trading ranges, DCA time, that sort of thing.

[00:08:08]I'm talking about this, not this. I think we're about to go through one of these patterns now. we have to figure out whether we're going to see this collapse past 60,000 right now or um if it's going to go sideways in the 60s and then eventually break down. But I think ultimately the price is going to break below 60 for a number of reasons.

[00:08:27]And those reasons eventually I think are going to happen because we haven't seen one the sentiment enough time to reset and two enough time for the liquidity come to come back. Uh we've seen it on the exchange volume. Still not enough liquidity in the game. It's just bumbling around here in the 20 billions and previous cycles have all done similar things. We're just not seeing the people come back with the money.

[00:08:53]Could be less people. It just needs to be more money. And each of those cycle lows, you can see the volume basically dry up into the lows. Now, the sentiment I said that we would see a bounce on the search volume for Bitcoin when the price drops because we're in a bare market.

[00:09:11]And that's what's happened here. 36 up to 64. So, you probably remember that from the prior videos. If not, obviously, you know, it's my little way of saying subscribe to the channel and follow along here. We've got the bounce.

[00:09:23]Let's see over the next couple of days where things go any further. Now, I've gone from the longer term here, but I want to touch on the shorter term because of one big factor. That number at the top of the screen. Can you see that? You got 24-hour long and short.

[00:09:40]We're sitting at rounded up 48% are in the longs and 52% are in the shorts.

[00:09:46]There is a 4% difference between those numbers. I think everyone could do that maths. 4% difference. When we see that, it's very heavily crowded to the short side. And when that occurs, it often bounces back the other way. So, I think we're in a we're in a good position that there could be a shortterm rally that starts to clear out some of these shorts that have gotten very excited towards this low. So far price has come down to 65,370 getting very close to that March bottom 64,960.

[00:10:25]We you know in terms of a short term here we are looking for a bounce somewhere from these levels at least to test rallies and start to clear out how heavily onesided the leverage positions are here now for the shorts. So I think that is going to occur. We have seen $1.8 8 billion of liquidations over the last 24 hours. And as you can see from the bar here, that's been one of the largest uh liquidations we've seen in 3 months. So, a an absolutely monstrous day. Now, it's going to uh not be huge when you compare it to the 10th of the 10th, October, that is 2025. That day was absolutely enormous. And that's what the perma bulls blame on the game. So, if you're looking for a why, as I said at the beginning, and we're trying to answer these questions, one of those wise is that permables. Well, one of the wise is that liquidations are manipulated by the exchanges. And I can't disagree. There is I think there is definitely manipulation. Exchanges will typically trade against most of their traders because most of the people are typically wrong when it comes to trading. That's why most people lose.

[00:11:40]Therefore, why not do the opposite to the majority of people? If you're an exchange that has all of this data, it's I guess it's not ethical, but in some cases, it's not illegal. I have to look at the playbooks for that. In different countries or different jurisdictions, in many cases, it is definitely illegal to do. But you're playing in the wild west here, looking at huge volatile swings, and you're looking for massive gains. So if you're playing in the wild west west then you have the possibility for higher upside and you have the possibility for bigger downside. And unfortunately in the wild by wild west there is still manipulation to the downside as there is to the upside. It's a game that plays both ways. It happens into the highs. It happens into the lows. So the position here it is. This is the exchange volume.

[00:12:33]one of the largest longs liquidated since we saw the uh February price lows.

[00:12:40]So going back to Feb, that's uh the low right here on the way down. Huge longs were liquidated. So all in all, we've answered what's happening right now.

[00:12:50]Obviously, it's a downtrend. Why is it happening? Well, could be manipulation.

[00:12:56]Could be that Michael Sailor is selling and people are panicking. I just think that there is less interest in the markets from what we can objectively see in the exchange volume and in the search volume. Less people, less money more importantly. Therefore, there's going to be less buying. And if the selling overcomes the buying, then you got a downtrend. And that's exactly what has happened through here. And it's exactly what we've been discussing this entire way up. Even though these markets make explaining that look ridiculous because you can see it go from 66k to 82k and then basically all the way back down much much quicker. All right, so that's the medium-term, shortterm, longterm.

[00:13:40]Shortterm is looking for a little bit of a bounce based on the factors I've given you. Longterm still looks like there's further to go because we haven't seen the indicators roll over. How much downside? How much downside? Well, let's get back to the fibs. And conservatively, I'm still looking in this zone 43 to 58K. So, now that we've had the downtrend, I just want to make it abundantly clear if price is able to maintain here in the 60s, maybe a few touches at the 70s, and I'll come to this 50% because that's basically one of the most important parts. Uh we're we're seeing signs of transition from this bare market to a bull market. I've explained the sentiment. It looks similar to last time as we were tracking through this period.

[00:14:24]And the exchange volume also looks similar. The uh the volume nowhere near as much as what it was back then. So, I'm still on the on the fence of whether we're going to get a new alltime high for the next cycle, but I'll leave that until we get to some future videos. Um, but in terms of the pattern, if this is going to hold out, it's very similar to what happened back in 2022 where it saw a rally, short-lived, came back down, and basically based out around the lows for several months, and things got even more boring. I suspect from that time, more of you who are potentially watching this are going to switch off. You're going to switch off from X and YouTube and whatever else you look at when it comes to Bitcoin. And I think more of that interest is going to go over to AI because this thing is actually moving.

[00:15:13]And that would be one of my other major reasons why you're not seeing the same sort of gains through cryptos, altcoins, and bitcoin when there are other areas of the market that retail like to trade in. Institutions, everyone people are merging or are migrating towards AI as this bubble takes off.

[00:15:37]A lot of people try and short the bubble. Not something I would suggest doing, but uh you know, you do you.

[00:15:43]Things that get started like this, they can keep going indefinitely. And as the old saying or the old quote from KE goes, markets can remain irrational longer than you or I can remain solvent.

[00:15:54]And so if this is the beginning of the bubble, all we have to do is just squeeze up the chart a little bit and you can really start to see how much this thing could take off. Maybe it hits 80, 90, 100, 120. I'm looking at the the AI here. There's about 90 odd stocks in this particular um ETF and at the moment it's it's it's pretty much heading straight through many of the resistance levels. 50% taken out, 100% taken out.

[00:16:21]This is on the extensions, the fib extensions of prior ranges. And when markets take out these fib levels pretty cleanly, they generally run quite quickly to the next one. So, at the moment, there is really not much of a pullback besides in the 60 60 bucks here on this ETF. Now, the thing the other ETF or the other um sectors that that aren't running the same as AI at the moment is the MAGS. I'll get back to Bitcoin in a sec, but we're definitely seeing more of that money flowing through into AI and semiconductors compared to the the Magnificent 7. It may come back. Some of those are moving of course that are more heavily invested into AI and semi compared to others. But by and large that's where the money is flowing and we're seeing it also happen in the S&P 500 which is still in its bull market testing new highs. We have spoken about this in a um uh potentially having a bit of a grinding top and eventual correction in 2026. Not the end, but we've seen corrections before and things continue to run. especially when you're in that bubble territory.

[00:17:26]S&P and NASDAQ have all been in that space. And when you get those moves, check back into the early 2000s.

[00:17:35]NASDAQ's going to be better at this. As it runs higher, the pullbacks are going to be more severe. Now, this is where it ties back into Bitcoin because if we do get these severe pullbacks, that's extremely volatile.

[00:17:47]Percentage move from top to bottom is about 22% and then it bounced back from that level. Imagine 22% wiped out and bounced back. I guess we can imagine it because we've seen it in 2025 and 2026 with all the tariff nonsense. Look at this when you got to squeeze the chart up. There it is. 20% down, 20% back.

[00:18:05]Huge 10% down crash in 2026 and it's it's bounced back. So, I think things are going to get a little bit more volatile like this, especially if they keep heading straight up. that is going to most well my opinion of course definitely impact Bitcoin quite substantially and we'll see those moves down. Um I that's going to take us into that price range I think of the 40 to 50k after we get through some sort of uh you know basing effort should prices hold here at 60k. So that's another reason why I think things aren't looking so rosy for for Bitcoin and altcoins. The final reason why is probably interest rates with an interest rate environment that's remaining a little bit stronger than what risk assets would like to see. Interest rates still sitting around well it's still sitting at 3 and 3/4 but the outlook is basically pause steady for the rest of 2026 and 2027 looks to be a an interest rate increase here for the US. We've seen it around the globe already. Um, not that other countries affect the US, mostly the US affects us, but we're seeing the inflation problem across the globe. Australia's inflation was up.

[00:19:19]Interest rates have now increased three times here in Australia. Imagine that.

[00:19:22]It's absolutely crazy. Imagine if that happened in the US. Uh, Canada's in a sticky situation now, too. Their inflation is getting out of control. I think it's a little bit above their cash rate. Europe, I just saw in the last few hours, last um 24 hours, Euro zone inflation rises to 3.2. 2%. So they might have to put up some interest rates as well. And you know, if it happens to Japan, then I think that's just it's not going to be great for the market because it continues to breed uncertainty and then a lack of confidence. So that's going to be a tricky one for the US over the coming years. But even if this stays high, I think that's another reason for Bitcoin and cryptos to uh to not do so well through this environment. Now taking a look at liquidity for cryptos, the USDT dominance, which was another big indicator for us back in 2024.

[00:20:17]Looking at how the cycle was progressing, we didn't see any breakdowns. And now USDT, which is basically the safe haven in crypto.

[00:20:24]Money has continued to flood back to USDT. We're seeing an uptick in the volume for USDT as we continue to break fresh prices again back above 8% and the highs sitting around 9%.

[00:20:40]The big issue here for altcoins is if this breaks 9% we're then into uncharted territories for USDT. Yes, there is more USDT printed out there, but there are also more altcoins, bigger market caps all around.

[00:20:58]Bitcoin needs more money to sustain its price as well and so this is all feeding in on itself. This could head high which is just going to suck more and more liquidity out of the altcoin space. Uh it's obviously ETH is down seeing some fresh lows here. I think ultimately ETH is going to come back and test the 1400 level. Not saying it has to happen today but we've seen ETH basically go on some pretty wild tears to the downside when it gets going. So I'd be I'd be very very careful there. have some alerts set um for any sort of downside movement past 1,700 14's there which then takes you all the way back to 2017 2018 top.

[00:21:39]So pretty much playing with old highs from two cycles ago. Not a very strong sign overall.

[00:21:49]Salana now down even further putting in fresh lows. The only lower price now for this bare market was back on the 5th of February testing lows around 60. Well, that was 68 bucks. Now down to 72. So not far off that now. I I I mean, yeah, this was basically the targets that I'm looking at. I was looking between these lows around 50 to 70 bucks as a test for this cycle low. I suspect Salana will probably go further here, but let's wait and see what happens through this period. Uh this was a major sign for us counting the time frames into the highs for Salana. Five months up into the highs. It loves to do this five to six month pattern in moves especially in the bull market. Whereas for the bare markets it can just go on for many many months. So it was 13 months to the downside last cycle. This cycle I think we've extended past that now. You're at 13 months to the current low. It could be taken out. If it's taken out this month you're at 17. So, you're basically getting longer bare markets here because the bull markets are potentially getting a little shorter, which is a sign of weakness moving into the future. If you made it this far in the video, take that, plaster it on your walls, because if you're getting longer times in these downtrends, that generally is going to breed shorter up moves until we start to see a shift coming back to the upside.

[00:23:15]Okay, that essentially means that probably won't see new all-time highs here for some of these major alts.

[00:23:24]Look at this last cycle with Trump. That was January 25. President of of the United States launched a memecoin which was all the rage for Salana at that time and the closing price did not even go past the prior all-time high. The price did for a few moments and then back under. So, pretty weak in this cycle.

[00:23:44]And I know many people be looking that huge shoulder shoulders and a head. This is like a Butch gym buff head and shoulders pattern which will probably send things down a little further. I'll stop before we get too too depressed on that. I think XRP is probably heading towards the same outcome here. Uh same deal. Did not see big all-time highs past price cycles, which is a little bit of I don't want to say a little bit. it's actually very very weak on its own. Uh and then to marry that in with the liquidity escaping and into more favorable spaces, I just want to make sure people are are protecting themselves in these moves.

[00:24:25]Now, should we get to some of the lows and we see bounces, there's going to be some decent multiples. That's going to be a time for trading, but we'll once we get to that point, we'll continue to cover it here. So, make sure you subscribed to the channel, like the content, and so on. Now, the other piece you can do is check out the free reports. There's a link in the top of the video description that'll keep you up to date with the 18ear cycle, stocks, Bitcoin, and the uh and the economy as we uh continue to cover that in each of the weekly reports. Links in the top of the video description. You can see that.

[00:24:56]Just click on free report and you will be on the mailing list for that. Now, back to cryptos. We got the stock mark uh sorry, the old coins done, ETH done.

[00:25:07]We looked at stable coins and how this is still looking relatively weak across the board. You're even seeing the combined stable coins head a little higher here. If this breaks past 13, could be on the on the cards to get back to those prior tops and total three excluding Bitcoin, ETH and stable coins.

[00:25:31]So this is a look at the altcoin market has had a rally off some lows here and this is what probably the the final piece of hopeium that we could give when it comes to the market. There has been a bit of a base here but we have not seen any overbalances in time and price to a greater degree. It's only in the short term here and no tops broken yet. So there really needs to be a pretty significant move above prior tops somewhere above 0.5 to have any hope in a a sustained altcoin move and I'd hate to say season because it didn't really seem like any seasons this entire cycle but without much happening in the face of uh you know the Bitcoin price heading higher I think these are probably short-lived moves that we're seeing with alt verse Bitcoin pairs.

[00:26:24]You can see that with ETH against Bitcoin. Couple of days up. It's had a pullback. Now I'm on a weekly chart. You check it on the daily. Big day up. Huge reversal. Reversal. Soul.

[00:26:36]Couple of days up here. Reversal. Doge.

[00:26:40]No one really trades this anymore, but it was all the talk of the town. Now reversing. XRP people still love. That's holding up today. Other times it's just barely made it through. So, this would be the next big piece you'd need to see move back above prior uh resistance levels in order to sustain that next move out. So, Bitcoin price targets to the downside. We've looked at looking between that 40 and 60,000 level, 43 and 58 to be a bit more precise. Time frames still following out to 20 uh quarter 3 of 2026.

[00:27:18]Take a look at Micro Strategy because that has also absolutely been smashed.

[00:27:23]Some volume coming back in today. But the time frame on Micro Strategy that um that we saw last cycle is basically playing out the same this cycle which led to the cycle low and then the base forming for Micro Strategy about a month after Bitcoin. Bitcoin bottomed around 21st of November. Micro Strategy bottomed around that what 20 something to late 20th of December. So five weeks later and then things started to rally.

[00:27:51]So if the time frames continue to line up almost identically which is our voodoo indicator here then we're looking somewhere around September for a micro strategy low and Bitcoin be watching somewhere around that August period. So September, October for Micro Strategy. Let's watch August to September for Bitcoin for that low. I'm not I'm not in the camp of the old October low. But definitely keep watching quarter 3 2026, especially if the S&P 500 has a bit of a pullback uh in the coming weeks. And even if it tracks sideways, that's not going to be helpful for Bitcoin whatsoever. You know, if this continues to grind at the highs or consolidate the gains that it's had in preparation for another move higher, probably going to see some further weakness for Bitcoin and altcoins and obviously Micro Strategy as well, which is in a bit of a tough situation here. Like, subscribe, free reports in the top of the video description. Highly suggest getting on board with that so you get up to date with the 18 cycle, the economy, stocks, and uh cryptocurrency. and I'll see you guys back at the next video. I've got a traditional finance video coming up, stock markets and so on. All right, enough from me. Enjoy your day and hopefully you've been able to prepare yourself as best as possible with all the information that you've got here on on the channel. All right, guys. Take care. Peace out.