Will Ethereum Outperform Bitcoin? The Structural Outlook

[00:00:00]So, the Ethereum chart is currently very, very close to the April 2025 low, very close.

[00:00:09]And the question is, can we start to rally from here? Can we break out above resistance? What are the key levels? Or are we going to be stuck in a bear market until the end of the year? So, I want to take a look at this chart from a higher time frame point of view. We'll also take a look at the microstructures.

[00:00:31]And what I can tell you is that the overall idea is that Ethereum is moving in line with Bitcoin. Before we even take a closer look here um at the Ethereum chart, what I want to do, I want to take a look at the ETH BTC chart. So, Ethereum Bitcoin. Because this gives us a good idea of which of these charts is outperforming the other one.

[00:00:57]What is likely going to happen in the near term, in the medium term. And where are the support levels and when we can start to expect that possibly Ethereum could start to outperform Bitcoin again.

[00:01:11]And I actually want to start here on the higher time frame chart for ETH BTC because it shows us that at the moment ETH BTC is in a local downtrend or actually a substantial downtrend, you could say, from the 2021 high.

[00:01:27]Um ETH BTC has declined 74% 73% since then to where we are now.

[00:01:34]Uh and you could even argue that from the 2017 high which was even higher, we've you know, the the decline started.

[00:01:43]So, Ethereum has not really outperformed Bitcoin since 2017.

[00:01:48]Okay, there were always phases, but not a decisive long-term uptrend or something. So, actually, you could argue we are in a we are in a decline measured from the tops.

[00:01:59]But if you consider how the structure looks like with three waves up, three waves down, three waves up again from the 2025 low, it could even be a sideways range which I have labeled here on this chart as a triangle pattern in blue. So, one wave count I'm considering is that the the rally from the all-time low into the 2017 highs was an A wave.

[00:02:25]This now is a B wave, but it's a triangle A B C D E. We could be in the D wave right now and could get another push higher from the current region.

[00:02:35]We're going to take a look at that on the smaller time frame in a minute. And then could get a higher low. You know, what does all of this means? It means that at the moment um yes, in the short-term, medium-term as we go down, Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum, but we could soon start to see another push possibly to the upper boundary of the range. Nothing guaranteed yet, no low yet anyway confirmed on a local level.

[00:03:00]We're also below this yellow trend line, but it means we could be stuck in a long sideways range here um as shown in the blue scenario. Now, this range will start to break once we move below the previous swing lows. The first one was the April 2025 low at point 0.0177.

[00:03:20]The second one is the 2019 low at point 0.015. And if we do that, then I think we're also in a wave B. That wouldn't change. It's just the structure of the B wave would change. Um I'm neutral between whether it's a triangle or a B wave pullback. Um it's it's a B wave anyway, that's the idea.

[00:03:39]Whether it's a B wave in white or the B wave as a triangle remains to be seen.

[00:03:45]And now, I mean, we know that to keep a triangle alive, the market should ideally hold higher lows, lower highs.

[00:03:52]So, to keep this triangle alive, the market should soon start the next bounce, right?

[00:03:58]And this would be the blue scenario that I'm definitely tracking and observing.

[00:04:02]And in this blue scenario, we should soon start to see the move up in this blue C wave within uh the large D wave.

[00:04:11]A triangle again is an A B C D E structure.

[00:04:14]And the D wave itself would be an A B C pattern.

[00:04:18]And so, we have a support zone to watch for blue wave B.

[00:04:22]And I will show that to you on the smaller time frame here.

[00:04:26]And in this particular scenario, and we have to label it here on the smaller time frame, the idea would be that the current pullback could be a B wave pullback in a larger triangle pattern. Let's copy that as well over to the smaller time frame. But the support zone is there.

[00:04:42]So, it's a zone to watch um where the market could react between.02 and.026.

[00:04:50]This was also our target zone here.

[00:04:53]Market has now reached it, which means in other words, at the moment, Bitcoin is still outperforming Ethereum, but we are in an area where the market at least could attempt a bounce and rally at least to the yellow trend line at the red resistance zone, which is between.031 and.039.

[00:05:12]Only a break above this red resistance zone would really open the door to a larger rally or any five-wave move up as well would indicate that a larger bounce is unfolding in the blue count. And the blue count isn't really bullish, but it would at least uh lead to another uh period where Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin. At the moment though, this chart tells the story. I mean, for those of you who don't know the analysis or never followed it, but we've been tracking this ETH/BTC chart for many, many, many, many months. And there was no expectation for Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin in recent months. And so, it's also no surprise that Ethereum looks weaker than Bitcoin at the moment, which is to be honest quite normal in a bear market.

[00:05:54]So, the question is now, when could Ethereum start to outperform Bitcoin?

[00:05:58]And I mean, there might be a period here, yeah, where from this support zone Ethereum could try to start, but right now I don't see any evidence. Look, I would need to see from a structural point of view at least a break above that point 028 level, which could lead to a rally in a potential B wave bounce, but maybe something more, but for now we haven't even moved away from this support zone. Now, if we then take a look at the ETH/USD chart, I wanted to start with the ETH/BTC cuz it's so important because it is important to understand that um the even if Bitcoin goes up, if Ethereum will likely be a bit weaker. I've been saying that for many months. And so, when we track Bitcoin, we do that on a daily basis, most of the things we talk about when we when we talk about Bitcoin that relates to Ethereum as well. It's just that Ethereum performs weaker at the moment, and and you know, there's just Bitcoin's outperforming. So, I I I talked to you guys about this fractal here from 2022, and we talked about this fractal here after the February lows, and we said, "Well, it's probably the same."

[00:07:11]And so, then people said, "But yeah, it looks like we dropped much more from the 2025 high than than here from the 2021 high."

[00:07:19]Look, maybe it looks like that. I think it is a little bit more, but Ethereum is also going down against Bitcoin, right?

[00:07:26]And so, uh if we now compare what happened after the 2022 high all the way to the low, that was a 75% decline.

[00:07:35]Do I suggest we do the same? Not necessarily, but it would still take us into this orange support zone into the area between $650 to $1,000.

[00:07:45]This is far away.

[00:07:47]Um there's also no sign low is in and uh as I often showed you when we look at a seasonality and and time cycles, Ethereum should stay in a correction until the end of the year.

[00:08:01]And so if we take a look at our our time cycle engine, which is the time cycle model that we use for uh cryptos and stocks in our terminal, then if we take a look at the Ethereum chart, I mean this model predicted, you could say, cuz it has a predictive element, that we form a top in this area in May. It worked. It it just did. And so we'll continue to focus on it. It also projects that a low could form around September time.

[00:08:30]And so that doesn't mean we we crash down like a stone right now, but um there will likely be ups and downs, but as I shared with you, Ethereum Ethereum is likely weaker than Bitcoin and it's going to be like that for a little while until we actually see a small upside uh rally, small momentum to the upside, yeah.

[00:08:55]We we are still dealing with a decline here.

[00:08:59]And so this gives you the cycle. The dominant cycle is currently around 240 days.

[00:09:05]And this is very similar to other cryptos as well. There could be weakness over the summer. Doesn't mean we we crash down every month, but there could be periods of sideways, but this is the overall dominant trend. And then you can play around with this, project it further. Yeah, it can tell us where the next highs are and everything, but just wanted to highlight this here uh in the very very um in the let's say in the in the medium term, it's important to understand where we might be heading.

[00:09:30]And this aligns very well with the structure because the time cycles um not Bitcoin, the time cycles give us an idea of when something might happen, whereas Elliott wave gives us an idea of the structure. It's the trending market, counter trend, and so on.

[00:09:46]So, uh by the way, if you want to um test our terminal, it's still early access. We only released it last month. Feel free to check it out. Um you can access it via our gold membership. As a gold member, you even get access to it for 50% discount in the first month. Um the link is in the comment section with a discount code if you want to test it out.

[00:10:07]And And so, the focus, you know, the the focus currently is on lower prices here.

[00:10:11]Yeah, we're now back on the higher time frame chart. And when we track a decline like that, we track it as an ABC structure. The C wave would be 1 2 3 4 5. Resistance is unchanged between $1,817 and $2,223.

[00:10:29]And we might end somewhere in this orange box. My view is $1,000 is not unrealistic. And that would still where we are right now, roughly a 40% decline.

[00:10:42]Um could be a little less, could be a little more.

[00:10:46]The next structural support is where the April low is located at around $1,400.

[00:10:54]Okay. And so, let's take a look at the shorter time frame chart now for Ethereum. Um and here on the shorter time frame, we see that the market might be working on this wave two bounce that I showed you already here on the higher time frame. This is exactly what we're tracking on the smaller time frame, but please note that the yellow trend line uh is here as well. And um yeah, it's it's it's currently located around $2,100.

[00:11:22]The market might move higher in an ABC structure here at the moment. The chart really hasn't moved much on Friday.

[00:11:29]I don't expect much of a movement uh over the weekend, but the micro support zone to watch for the weekend is between 1,620 and 1,657 dollars. As long as this one is holding, um yeah, Ethereum could try to push higher in a more direct fashion. If we break below it, then it will become even more probable that circle wave B is extending, um and key support will shift back to 1,547, which is the lower boundary of our larger range. For now, the idea is that the market could push higher, but it might not do that until next week. And it really depends on whether the um Ethereum bulls can defend the 1,620 to 1,657 dollar area. The resistance zone to watch for the weekend is between 1,682 and 1,740 dollars.

[00:12:26]And if we push higher, ideally the market in this wave two would reach at least the upper resistance, which starts here at around 1,820 dollars, because what we want to see is a five-wave sequence either in the orange count or um in the white count, it could even be a one-two-one-two setup, but because in the orange wave two it allows for a slightly deeper pullback, um I have highlighted this orange support zone for the orange scenario here.

[00:12:54]For now, if we really take a look at the micro structures, I mean, I do not see any evidence that this pullback that started on Thursday is over. We might go a little bit lower. It's a bit messy here, this micro structure. And therefore, I wouldn't be surprised if we just see some sideways, maybe slight with slightly downward drifting patterns over the weekend.

[00:13:17]So, that should give you a really good idea of what we expect for Ethereum in the yeah, medium-term and short-term. I mean, medium-term weakness probably until Q4. There could be some periods where maybe Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin a little bit, but it might just be a corrective rally into resistance, as I showed you here on the ETH/BTC chart.

[00:13:37]Um Ethereum overall is expected to move lower towards the orange support zone.

[00:13:42]Could potentially even reach $1,000, maybe even lower.

[00:13:46]Um in the short term though, higher prices are possible as per this wave two.

[00:13:51]And if you're interested in additional updates, if you want to request charts, or if you just want to test our terminal, get our live chart access for TradingView charts, and much more, feel free to check out our membership. I'll put the link into the comments, and I wish you a great weekend. Bye-bye.