Oil ETFs like USO (United States Oil Fund) carry significant risks due to their futures rolling mechanism, which can result in substantial roll costs of up to 30% in some years, making them unsuitable for long-term holding; investors should consider alternatives like XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) or equity-based plays such as crack spread (refiners) that avoid the complex derivative structures inherent in oil futures products.
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Don’t Mess With OilAdded:
We still do not have a great oil ETF.
>> Don't mess with oil.
USO is a wolf in sheep's clothing. It's why we invented the traffic light system. Basically, it rolls futures and so some years you can have roll costs of 30%. So you can get the call right, but like lose a lot of money.
Um be careful. So I would look at that as like a rated R movie.
USO Investors use XLE instead of USO for that instead. Yeah, I would use XLE. We have Vince Piazza who's works in BI. He likes crack because crack is refiners and if the Strait of Hormuz was closed, you got to get oil from other places where it's not as it needs more refining. So this is kind of like long equity plays around oil that I think makes sense cuz there's no weird derivative action. But be very careful.
If you're going to use USO, just trade it.
>> [music]
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