The Federal Reserve's Preferred Consumer Expenditures (PCE) data is a critical inflation metric that significantly influences market movements, as the Fed closely monitors this indicator to guide monetary policy decisions; when the Fed signals hawkish policy through this data, it typically strengthens the US dollar and can trigger market volatility, making it essential for traders to monitor PCE releases for potential trading opportunities.
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Week Ahead in Markets– Is the Fed’s Favorite Inflation Metric Important Next Week?
Added:Is the Fed's favorite inflation metric important next week? And also Sunday, which happens to be Father's Day, also is the first day of summer. So, is that going to be an important day for the markets as we reopen next week? I'm Blake. You're watching the week ahead video. We're going to talk about all that and more. So, stick around.
Hey traders, this is Blake Marorrow and you are listening to the week ahead in markets with trading analytics and I'm glad that you're here and yeah, next week we're going to have the PCE data from the Fed. It's going to be an important piece of data, but is it going to be that important? because this week we just heard from the new Fed chair Kevin Worsh and he's got task force 5 and one of his task force is going to be tackling inflation and how they read inflation. So is this week's PCE data that happens to fall on Wednesday is it going to matter that much? Um you know I still think it is or it's actually on Thursday I'm sorry. Um I actually think it will uh but because obviously the market's really sensitive to inflation because the Fed's paying really close attention. So mark your calendars for Thursday. It's going to be a big day.
But also Sunday, it is Father's Day. So to all you fathers out there, happy Father's Day. Um you know, keep being those great role models that you are to our our youth that are coming up cuz one day they are going to rule the world. Um but happy Father's Day to you gentlemen.
Um uh but uh but going going into Sunday, it is going to be really important because it's going to be the first day of summer. And now that we've gotten past the SpaceX IPO, we've gotten the memorandum of of understanding. Big options X-ree happened on Thursday just before the market was closed for a long weekend. And you know, now that it's summer, is it buy the rumor, sell the news time? I think early next week is going to be really important to gauge how the market's going to respond going into summer. And you got to stick around for the top three trade setups because one of them has to do with equities. So, we're going to get to all that and more in just a few moments. I do want to also say this is going to be a shorter week ahead video. Um, Nick is not joining me once again this week. He is still traveling. He was traveling last Friday.
He left. He's going to be gone. Uh, right now it's Friday, Junth actually.
So, June 19th. Uh, it is the US holiday as I'm recording this. But, um, like I said, uh, Nick is going to be back next week. So, he's not going to provide a uh a piece to this video. I'm going to quickly breeze through some things that I think are really important. Then, I'm going to give you the top three trade setups that I have of next week. And then re and I'm also going to review the ones from the previous week. So, let's go ahead and get started. And once again, thanks for joining me. And if you like these videos, make sure you give us a thumbs up, do all the good things, you know, give a thumbs up, comment down below, tell us you like it, share it on social media, and more most importantly, subscribe to this channel. You want to support what we're doing? Well, sub subscribing to the YouTube channel is a great start. It's all free to subscribe, free to give a thumbs up, and free to comment down below. All right, guys. Uh let's get into it. So, next week, uh there's a few things that are happening that I think are really important.
First, it's going to kick us off with Monday. And, uh we're using the week ahead videos. So, uh charts, I'm going to come back to that crude oil chart here in a second. Um but the dollar Canadian, we have Canadian CPI. Look at this massive rally in the dollar CAD. I mean, it is absolutely taken off like it's nobody's business. We're going to we're we're approaching 161% extension, which I think is pretty important. But also, if you look and let me let me get rid of this stuff so it's easier to draw on um that previous channel. I don't think we need that now. This is all old drawing stuff. I could probably delete all that, too, but I'm not going to do that right at this moment. High to low, right? This false breakdown over here.
You know, if you look at our uh Whoops.
That's not what I want to do. There we go. If you look at where we could extend to, we're above the 50% retracement.
That, you know, was a big breakout. Um, we have 161% extension, a 618 retracement. Some somewhere in the 142s, I'm assuming the dollar CAD is going to find some pretty significant resistance.
But could we reach for there this week, especially if the Canadian inflation on Monday comes in a little weaker than expected? Absolutely. But what I'd be looking for is a potential reversal somewhere up in that neighborhood. All right, continuing on for the rest of the week. Um, we have we have a lot of data from Australia, we have uh CPI uh come Wednesday, and then we also have on Thursday, and I'm saying this in Australian days, on Thursday, we're going to have employment, but take a look at the Aussie. And the Aussie is going to fit the bill of what we've been talking about. Uh we're obviously going to review this uh from last week's trade of the week, one of the top three trades of the week, but I want you to look at Aussie just a little bit differently.
Now, yes, it is still a head and shoulder pattern. Yes, is there further downside? Of course, there is. But notice where the Aussie is holding. Now, if you take a look right through here, you'll notice that we are on basically triangle support. Now, why is that important? Well, it's extremely important in my opinion because if you look at this um this, you know, this obvious uh uh level, why is where's that importance come from? Well, if you take this low, well, actually, even before I do that, uh just have a have a gander of what what what is this level right here?
It's 70 cents, right? So, it's a big that's a we call that, you know, in in in in FX market terms or in currency terms, that is a a big figure number.
Now, obviously, you need to pay attention to the Aussie dollar because of risk, and I'm going to get into that here in one second. Risk meaning what's happening in the stock market. We're going to cover, you know, the S&P and uh crude and group and and gold and Bitcoin and all that stuff here in a few minutes. But it's important when you look at the Aussie because one of the reasons why the Aussie is holding up so well is because equities are near all-time highs. They haven't really backed away. Even if you look at the NIK or the Cosby, you know, out out in uh in Korea, those markets hit all-time highs just actually uh 24 hours ago. So when risk is holding up really well, it shouldn't be a surprise that the Aussie dollar is holding above.7. But why is this number really important as well?
Well, if you take a look at this low right here, this low to high, you'll notice that we have a 618 retracement right there at 70. So, um, that's telling you right now if we break through 70s, we're going to probably complete that uh head and shoulder pattern, which I'm know if you're following along with the trades, the the top three trades of the week, you know that this is a really important chart to me right now. Uh we're going to get into that in a bit. But anyway, Australian data obviously uh uh CPI actually on on Wednesday. Uh then we have uh employment data on Thursday in Australia. Then on Thursday, we have the US PCE data. Now take a look at the dollar. The dollar is absolutely on fire. Now, that's following the Fed uh and the the more and surprisingly to me, I was really surprised on how hawkish Fed chair pal pal Worsh sounded. It's his first, you know, it was his first FOMC meeting and you can tell just based on the response that you got here after the FOMC meeting, the market was positioned for a more dovish war. I was thinking we were going to get a dovish war. I was like, there's no way he's going to be hawkish. I was wrong. And I traded the dollar to the long side. Soon as I figured out, I'm like, man, he is not going to be dovish today. Uh I turned around, I went long dollars uh on, you know, Wednesday after the FOMC or well during the press conference. And if you guys don't know how to or that I did, well, you can just go to the trades room and go see how I traded the dollar.
All you have to do is go back to Wednesday um and you can see exactly what I was doing on the 16th. So, if you want to if you want to follow along here, you can see exactly what I was doing with the dollar. But, um, but you know, that's part of like being a member in the uh in the trading analytics chat room, which I'll talk about here in a second. Um, but man, that was really really an important um thing with the dollar because now the dollar is ripping and even, you know, I know we sit back and we go, is he really that hawkish?
You know, I think Worsh is going to be one of those Fed chairs that you gota you're going to listen to his words, but you got to watch their actions. And I think that's what his Fed is all going to be about. You know, he's not he's not do he's not doing any more he's doing less communication, which takes us back to like pre green uh Berneni era. So, it takes you more like Greenspan and back, which I used to trade through um which the Fed is going to give us less information. their statements are going to there less communication and we're going to be guessing on a lot of things which means there's more volatility coming in the markets which is going to be a really great thing for us traders.
But with all that being said, you can see the dollar is in uh is in breakout territory right now. But more importantly, if you look at the long-term of the dollar index, we're approaching a 38% retracement. So, uh, what I'm going to tell you here is if the dollar or if you see, you know, the dollar index we start to break above like 102, that's going to be really bullish on a more longer term basis. You know, you talk to a lot of traders um, uh, or traders uh, analysts that are bullish dollars, their targets are near the 107 level. And if you just look at it as a as a descending channel, that's really um, I think doable. Now technically technically speaking now are we going to get there tomorrow? No. Um is but can we make our way up there?
Sure. And does it have to be for the reasons that you believe or you think because the US economy is strong? Not necessarily. Remember the dollar is also a function of liquidity. If the market's running low on liquidity and they need dollars because they need to sell uh they they sell equities, they want their dollars back, they want their investments back, they want to be in cash, dollar can actually rally for a couple of different reasons. And it isn't always just because the US economy is strong or the economic data is better or there's US exceptionalism. The dollar can do better for that's why we talk about the dollar being the best risk aversion tool out there. But um anyway, that's the dollar. Uh PCE data on Thursday is going to be really important. We wrap up the week with like University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Uh we also have uh and inflation expectations. We also have on Thursday we have final GDP which I don't think is going to be much of a mover for the dollar but you never know. All right, so that's economic data that we're experiencing next week. Now before I get into what the S&P is doing and everything else, I want to mention this guys. Did you know um trading analytics uh it is actually we have a free version? Um yes, we actually have a free version of trading analytics. That means that you can actually use the trading analytics tool, download the mobile app and get alerts and analysis directly and use use our our tools directly on your palm in your on your mobile device. But what's really cool about that is it doesn't take a credit card. You just put in your name and a valid email. We need a valid email to send all the alerts to.
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You even get the premium version for the first 10 days minus the chat room, but then you get to use all the tools. And then even after that, why is it so valuable? because you have this great tool with a lot of different analysis for in in 10 different languages with AI summaries every single day can get you up to speed. The AI summaries, by the way, is our analysis. It's summarizing our analysis across the board, multiple times a day. And then you get all of this for free.
But, and I'm going to give you the butts, the cool thing is you see all these uh support and resistance levels, like when you have a mobile phone and you have an app and you're you're seeing alerts on your phone, the great thing is is when you know levels are breached or there's new analysis, you're up you're notified on your mobile device. So, this way you know when something is moving.
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So, take a test drive uh download your mobile app and uh upload the free version of Trading Analytics. And then obviously you can do the pro version and get uh get the scanning tool and this which scans uh over 5,000 or under 4700 almost 4,800 different instruments.
Yeah, 47 uh00 instruments um and looks for uh trade setups as you can see here based on criteria that we have set forth in the market. So yeah, that is our pro product which also gives you some other pro tools as well. All right, guys. Uh, getting back into what's happening this next week or other markets that I want to cover. Let's take a look at the S&P.
Uh, the S&P is obviously very important right now because we are perched above the highs, but you notice where we held like we held the important support that we talked about last week, which is right here. We're still above it. Um, the markets rallied really sharply in the middle of the week when that memorandum of understanding was digitally signed between Iran and the US administration. Then we had um on Thursday we had um uh you know and then also we had the FOMC meeting but on Thursday we had options expiration big expirations a lot of hedge hedges coming off in the markets that's kept us elevated but what happens next week when we have to put all these hedges back on for protection.
So, I'm going to tell you how I want to trade the S&P, but I'm going to do that at the end of this video on the top three trade setups of next week, and I'm going to review the ones from last week. So, stick around. All right, so that's the S&P, but take a look at where the NASDAQ's at. So, the NASDAQ, big breakout, right?
Challenging these highs. But look at the Dow and look at the Russell. So, the Dow is at wedge resistance, which we've talked about. So, we can actually move that up, right? Like that. Look at the Russell also at channel resistance right so we are you know challenging levels that are really really important in the market um so therefore keep an eye on everything because I think now that you know the market doesn't have much else to look forward to for summer and it's the first day of summer on Sunday the first part of next week is going to be a little rocky and potentially a down week this next week um and that's the way I'm going to be trading it. Anyway, all right. So, moving right along. I wanted to point out gold because gold is extremely weak. We remember we continue to fail and we talked about it this last week. We continue to fail uh below while we're below the 200 EMA. I said as soon as we break through the 200 EMA, you got to look to the downside. Well, guess what? Even rallies are getting sold.
We're getting sold at previous support acting as current resistance. And if you haven't known that all week, well, good news is moving forward, if you're if you're using um if you're using trading analytics, even the free version, you're going to get basic technical analysis every single day. And you can actually go read through the analysis all week long and how much we talked about resistance at 4370 and how important that analysis is all week long. That resistance remains at 4395.4,400 key resistance 4375 main resistance 4,400. We just kept talking about the resistance and you know how we're going to continue to fail there. Well, we've failed and now the risk is for gold that we finally complete. This is the gold uh pattern that we're looking for. That is what we call an alt bat, which this is a bat.
This is a bat. And then this is an altbat, right? So that is what looks to be completing with uh with um or I'm sorry, this is a butterfly. It's a butterfly. Bat is going to be in something else which I'll have to get into soon as it comes to my head. Uh but anyway, that's one of the harmonic patterns we're looking for. But Regardless, it's pointing towards 3900, which seems like a logical place as we talked the last couple of weeks for gold to get to. Flushes out all the stops below 4,000. And for those of you that want to take on some risk, because like myself, I'll probably be going long here over the course of the next week or two if gold sees below 4,000 this next uh week or two. All right, so continuing on, if you look at silver, silver looks like we can we can actually make our way down towards channel Whoops, I didn't mean to do that. We can make our way down towards channel support. You can see channel support right here, which will be at that big breakout point around the $55 uh dollar level. And that's what we've been targeting the last couple weeks. But notice how silver is failing as well. Um, Bitcoin is a big big deal to me. You know, we talked about last week this uh the rolling ball off the table. You guys remember that conversation and how we can reach for 52,000. Nothing's changed here, but actually a few things have. I say nothing's changed as far as the price action goes, but if you look at it closely, this is a bare flag pattern that is uh that is um uh developing. So, as I said on social media, uh, like on Wednesday, uh, if you follow me on Pipszar on on Twitter on X, I said it's a bare flag in a bare flag in a bare flag, which means that it's bearish in a big in a bare flag that still we're we're waiting for completion at 52,000 and a longerterm bare flag that points to 20,000. we have a shorter time frame bare flag that actually is going to point us to the 161% extension if we complete the whole thing. So, we're a bare flag and a bare flag and a bare flag in Bitcoin, which is not bullish right now. I still think that we could get a significant bounce from the 50,000 mark because it's 50K. There's going to be a lot of people trying to buy there.
52,000's been our downside target, right, for this one right here. This this red bearish flag, it's been our target for months. Um, I still think we can get there, and I think that's going to be a tradeable bounce area. As I've told you guys the last couple of weeks, uh, on the trade setups, which we're going to get to here in a second, but that's Bitcoin. Um, and then, uh, the other thing we should probably just be looking at is we should probably be looking at yields because it's not actually the the, um, the belly, uh, of the curve here around the, uh, on the 10-year yield, although I still think that they look fairly perky. But take a look at the uh, US uh, 2-year. So, let's get into the uh the the two-year. Uh look at how look at how perky these yields are looking. Now, the the front end of the curve is starting to rip. And so, we need to as as market participants, we need to pay attention to that because it's obviously um the way the two 10s are moving makes the market a little bit more dangerous.
Stock market is a little bit more dangerous at current levels. All right.
And uh continuing on with other things that I wanted to cover uh before we get into the top three trade setups of the week. Um I wanted to talk about something that is really a very important. I know I've discussed this.
We've discussed this a lot uh in uh in recent weeks here. Um but look at this massive massive breakout of this descending wedge on the Euro Swiss.
Remember we did talk about this a week or two ago. Uh looking for the breakout above the 200 DMA and the wedge resistance. Right? Soon as we break that wedge resistance, ah grabbed the wrong thing. Soon as we break that wedge resistance, right? Well, we broke that wedge resistance and now we're above the 200 DMA. This is a huge breakout, guys.
And it's a and I've I've been saying in our chat rooms on a daily basis for the last two weeks, you got to look at the behavior of the Swiss Frank. I've been in this I've been in currencies since currency markets were allowed allowed to be traded in the United States which was back in 2001. Uh I started trading them basically at the end of 2001 and I was the chief currency strategist for the wise trade group and MB trading uh all the way through 2011 and then before we became Ally Financial and as a currency trader what I've what I've noticed over the last 25 years uh 24 years is uh basically the Swiss Frank always strengthens when there's risk aversion.
that behavior has changed a lot over the last month and I've been recognizing it and I think most uh well people in our community have as well. What's really interesting is if stocks start to go down, if the Swiss Frank goes down as a when stocks are going down, that's going to be a behavior that's changed that's been different over the last 20 years.
Now there's been uh some bank analysis based on what you know the Fed has said and how people are viewing that the the dollar the safe haven status of the Swiss Frank may be may be in jeopardy but more importantly it's a carry trade too. So even if even if equities stay strong, you know, being long the euro Swiss or Aussie Swiss or dollar Swiss or any other Swiss Frank, anything but Swiss Franks as the Swiss National Bank, interest rates are at zero, it provides a really healthy carry for anybody who's long just say the Euro Swiss, which I happen to be for for the last uh several weeks. So keep your eye on the Euro Swiss. it could this could really take off and uh now that we're coming out of this very bearish um very bearish long-term trend. This is a bullish reversal sign that could give uh the the uh the Euro Swiss a much bigger recovery in the it's not it's not going to happen tomorrow but in the weeks, months, and maybe even years ahead. All right, guys.
Um, that's what I wanted to cover just briefly here on the week ahead video before I get into the top three trade setups of the week. But, um, but you know, as we talk about the top three trade setups, what's probably the most important thing to you as volatility looks to set to increase this summer is how you are trading the market. So, I want to just share with you that our trader funding program for instant funding, that means you'll have capital to trade as soon as you fill out the paperwork. Um, instant funding and one-step assessments, uh, up to a million dollars in funding are at 30% off. Both types of assessments, instant funding or one-step assessment, 30% off. You use the code summer30 on your checkout. Now, if you don't know what funding programs are or you're not familiar with them, I want you to sit back and watch this two-minute video, but I want to tell you before you do this and you can learn, you know, figure out which one's best for you. When there's volatility and you want to participate in volatility and you want to make money, you want to have more capital to trade to be able to press a little bit more aggressively if you want to take advantage of a certain situation. the trader funding program, instant funding and both both assessments are something that we've been doing now for the last three and a half years, maybe going on four years uh with our traders and it's been a wonderful program for certain people. You know, certain people really really enjoy this because maybe they don't have the capital to trade or they don't want to risk their own money. So again, sit back, take take the next two minutes, watch uh the different funding programs and then remember, use this discount code. You have to until July 6th. That's the day after the 4th of July weekend in the United States. So, you have the next couple weeks to take advantage of this. All right, I'll be right back.
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So, take advantage of that. All right, guys. Um, let's go into the top three trade setups of last week. And, uh, we want to discuss those. Um, and then we'll I'll give you the top three trade setups in my view, um, for this next week. All right. So, uh, last week, the first one, trade setup number one, we said, hey, if the Aussie dollar, uh, trades at 7080, it's going to be a good short because it's the head and shoulder neckline. Well, this week's high was 70 88. So instead of hitting 7080, we hit 70.88 and then we dropped back down to 70 cents. So I was off by about eight pips.
So would you say that that first trade setup worked well?
I I don't I don't know if I could have done much better, but I obviously I could have said 70 88. That would have been better, but you you guys get what I'm saying. Trade setup number one, it worked. So uh I hope you guys enjoyed that one. I'm short the Aussie dollar right now, too. I've been trading it from the short side since the FOMC and prior to the FOMC. So, hopefully you guys have done well with that. All right, trade setup. And again, if you want to know how I traded it, just go to the chat room. Trade setup number two, uh, short S&P below 7225 on a breakdown.
Well, unfortunately, that hasn't happened. Not yet. Okay. I was looking for a breakdown below here to get on the short side of the S&P, but we rallied back. Um, so that has not happened. So, uh, trade setup number two, we called a scratch because we set up for trades.
Uh, some trades don't work out. Some trades work out famously like the Aussie. Some of them we get ready for them and they just never come to fruition. Well, this is one of those.
So, we call it a scratch. So, one worked well, one's a scratch. The third one was short gold while below 4,400, target 4,100, then 3,900. Oh, no, that was two weeks ago. I'm sorry. But hey, that worked great, too. Uh I'm sorry. Last week was long dollar Swiss above 8045.
Sorry, I was that was two weeks ago.
8045 uh for a breakout.
Well, uh, we broke 8045 and, um, we are breaking out. And currently Europe, uh, and it's still going, uh, the dollar Swiss. So, did trade setup number three work? It did. So, we had two trades that worked great. One of them is just a scratch. So, that was a good week of trade setups. That was last week. So, what are the top three trade setups of this week? because, you know, now we're in a situation where what do we do, especially now that summer's coming? Well, first trade setup for this week is going to be short the S&P at 7550, basically where we're at right now or higher. Um, so I'm looking for the S&P at this uh 7500 to 7550 level. So, right through here. Let me just draw it out for you as a short. Okay, because Dang it, I didn't want to do that. Let me move that back because I'm looking for a sell-off here. This would also be a bat, which would take us back down to those lows. So, the first trade setup is shorting the S&P from 7500, where we're currently at right now, uh, all the way up to 7550 for a potential short. And I'm looking for an eventual break below this week's low to add. So, in other words, short there, breaks through here.
I'm going to add to it somewhere down here and eventually look for a move down to here. Okay, you guys uh got trade setup number one? That was trade setup number one. Trade setup number two. Uh I want to pick up dollar Swiss again. If you missed it last week because some of you are like, "Damn, man. I saw that." All right, fine. If it dips back to 8050 down here, I'm looking for a long back down to here. Now, I'm already long, but for those of you that missed it, I think that's a great trade setup going into next week. So, buy dips to 8050.
That was trade setup number two. Trade setup number three, crude oil. So, as long as crude oil remains above the 200 DMA, I'm looking for longs. So, you guys remember from a couple weeks back, I was looking for a dip below 80 to get long.
Well, you know, we got to the 200 EMA, we got a hammer on Thursday. That's Thursday. Today, we're trying to follow through. So, while we're above that 200 EMA, I'm looking for a move back above 80 and beyond. So, while we're above the 200 DMA, I am looking to be on the long side of crude. And those are your top three trade setups of the week. Once again, guys and gals, if you like these videos, make sure you give me a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, comment down below if there's anything that you think is really important that maybe I've missed because, yeah, this is a quick video because we have a holiday weekend. But also, take advantage of trading analytics. Um, you have lit literally you want to you want to support what we do here. If you like these like free videos that we've done for the last 10 years, well, come jump in the chat room with me. It's a $118 a day.
And if you really want to support us, do the pro. So this way you have a scanning tool and you scan through all these different markets and that's less than $2 a day. I mean, even the premium's like a euro a day, but at least get a free trading analytics account. Use the premium for the next 10 days. But more importantly, now you have alerts on your phone. So all the markets we cover, 60 different markets, when those alerts start going off, like, oh my gosh, Google's breaking out, or oh boy, oh boy, the dollar index is breaking down or oh boy, the S&P is hitting new highs and new highs and new highs. and you keep getting these alerts. Now you have a tool in your pocket or in your palm that tells you when the markets are moving aggressively and it's free. So take advantage of that. All right, guys and gals. My name is Blake. I want to thank you so much for spending your time with me. I know you're probably spending your time over your holiday weekend uh or your long weekend um you know watching this video.
So I do appreciate that. And for all you Father's Days, uh, fathers out there, happy Father's Day on Sunday and happy summer to everybody. All right, guys. My name is Blake Marl with Trading Analytics. I'll catch you guys on the morning monday morning face show. Uh, but don't forget the flow show with Ryan and Kayman is just a couple hours before. So, get prepared for your trading day in Europe with our team, our European team. All right guys, have a great weekend. I'll see you next week.
Hey traders, this is Blake Marorrow with Forex Analytics. Thanks for stopping by our YouTube channel. Don't forget to like these videos, share them, and subscribe to our channel so you don't miss any of the content that we provide here for free. Thanks for stopping by.
I'll see you in the next video.
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