Bitcoin Is About to Catch Everyone Off Guard

[00:00:00]Bitcoin has now traded sideways for nearly 2 months, but beneath the surface, the market may be starting to shift. ETF flows are finally starting to turn positive, and the altcoin market is sitting on major support. And despite the signs of stabilization, the broader crowd remains deeply fearful. So, is this the market quietly building a bottom or is this simply consolidation before yet again another leg lower?

[00:00:21]Today, we're going to break down what the latest macro data is telling us along with the key Bitcoin and altcoin levels that could signal strength or weakness from here. My name is Paul Samson. Welcome back to Dave Dash.

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[00:01:34]Here we have Bitcoin still relatively in its downtrend since the $126,000 high.

[00:01:40]Right now, I want to cover where and when we could see a bit of strength come into this market. Right? And on a very structural level, uh the one area you want to see us get above is our last high. All right. So, in this case, we've put in a high, a low, a lower high, a lower low, a new lower high, a basically a new lower low here. And in theory, we would be anticipating that the market would continue lower until something shifts, right? So, that's something that we could see shift and strength come into this region is really what I want to cover. Right? So, if we lose our low currently, we're trading right around it. Simple as that. We look lower. All right? Until that happens, however, uh for me, I'm always going to look at, you know, we're down 50% or more, especially in Bitcoin. Really, in any asset, though, you have to be looking for uh you know, a long opportunity or bounce opportunity or buying opportunities, right? You just in the in the grand scheme of risk management, it's not ideal to just be continually looking lower after we've seen such a major drop at this point, right? Uh so, where could we see any type of strength come into this market? I have three levels marked off for you. Very, very simple. Okay. Uh in a short term, I think that we could easily see a small pullback towards around 60,000 yet again. And that would offer up a more local area for us to be paying attention for. If I zoom that in with a local gold pocket, meaning that if we were to see a 618 to 65% retrace of the current bounce, all right, and that's where I just took that from this low to this high, that gold pocket still aligns really well with that. And there is a weekly NPOC or a naked point of control and untapped volume level that still sits down there from a few weeks back. So if I'm looking for a little local area where I'd be interested in looking for, you know, a buy on Bitcoin, a long on Bitcoin or anything like that from where we are right this moment, currently trading at 64,000, it would be 60,300 give or take. Doesn't have to get there. Um, again, this is just prep, you know, preparing for some something ahead of time so that if we do see it, I'm not shaking in my boots, not panicking, nothing along those lines. Okay. Uh, for the foreseeable future here for this quarter, uh, for Q3, uh, we have a new high time frame average as well as a six-month. So, this is a weekly naked point of control, very high volume level for, of course, seven days. We also have a six-month version of that just overhead aligning with our high time frame average which has a very high statistical hit rate to be met in the following session meaning that we are likely to come up to that in Q3 of this year uh which we have plenty of time. We just started Q3 in July. So we have until basically October. Um it's only about $2,000 away from where we are now and where we've been. I don't think it's too uh unrealistic to think that we'll see that. Now flipping above that region uh would be the first real green. I always call it like a green flag, right?

[00:04:33]So, we're looking for a few cues on the side of strength kind of re-entering the market before waiting to see a reclaim of our previous high all the way back up at $80,000, which at this point would be a 30% move before you could confirm that. Right? So, what I mean by that is again when we're looking at the overall trend, there's no real potential uptrend beginning or confirming until we get back above that high on a simple structure basis. Again, I don't want to wait for a 30% move to get uh, you know, confirmation that the the market is shifting a bit. So, I want to look for those key areas down below, take advantage of any moves that come along the way. Even if we do in turn still go lower, because again, we could get pushes up to these areas right here, get a rejection, and go lower from there, you know, you're still talking about a sizable 10 15% move to this one I have marked off right here. But the first green flag we want to see or the first little sign of strength getting over our one our more recent little swing high here at around $66,000 and two it just so happens to be that high time frame average. This is 90 days. All right, 90-day average just similar to a 100 day moving average if you use those. Uh and then also again a six-month volume level. So uh very very big level right there on top of it being a swing high. I would say if we flip that, it is uh very likely that we at least get the push up towards our sixmonth pivot. So the high time frame average of six months sits right here. It's also where our quarterly VWOP closed. Uh so those two areas align really nicely there. Okay.

[00:06:03]So in the sense of where we are right this moment, I'd say 60,300 holds relevance down below. 66 is a big level just above us. 71 is really the line in the sand in my opinion for the foreseeable uh rest of this year really.

[00:06:19]And why is that? It's because again when you're looking at the strength or weakness uh idea here and many will look to the 50-day or the 200 day moving averages, right? Simple simple outlook there. You're bearish below, you're bullish above when you get above those high time frame moving averages. This average I'm presenting to you does not move. It is a very stable level. It is not going to change. It's not going to shift. I know exactly where it is. It's 71,380 give or take uh depending on what exchange you're looking at, but it will not shift from here. And if we are to claim that, that is getting back above a 180day average. So almost a 200 day average, right? The the same relevance, the same strength, uh is should be viewed as as such. So if we were to get above $71,380 on a daily and weekly closing basis, right? So claim that 66 and get up and claim that as well. And again, claiming means closing daily, weekly candles above uh consecutively. Doesn't mean it can't get lost after that, but that's just where we'd want to, you know, shift the bias. And as as long as we're above that, we'd seek higher prices. And for me, that would be a very very large confirmation of strength re-entering the market. We would be reclaiming a lot of ground. And then even before we come all the way back up towards that region, I would say that it is likely that Bitcoin's making a another push higher and we would come up and challenge that high again. Okay. And something that has been shifting a bit over the last few weeks. If you looked at uh what was it May and June, basically the ETF flows were highly highly negative, meaning that there was a ton of outflows, meaning there was a ton of selling going on in the multiple hundreds per day. We didn't see a single inflow day in the months of May and June. And now since July, uh we've still had a few little uh decent outflow days, but what is this here? Since it's the 20th today, and we've had one, two, three, four, four outflow days. And the rest are all uh inflows, right? So the inflows range, you know, up to about $220 million, $260 million here. There's like a 21 million, very small, 90 million, pretty small, 80 million, pretty small, but uh staying relatively inflow heavy. All right.

[00:08:29]compared as far as the days go. Of course, we have a big, you know, big sell-off day right here. But overall, just want to point out that we're seeing a little bit of inflows come back in, not seeing just a complete carnage selloff uh no longer. Okay. Uh so, with that being said, and Bitcoin potentially being around these areas where we could see uh a a bottom or a low come in at here, right? Even if we don't get an overall uh bare market low, new all-time highs from here type of move, but even if it just equates into a sizable move, uh I think that we have the recipe here for multiple reasons. And that recipe really starts to cement when we get in if we get above 71,000. Okay. Uh so that is what I'd be looking for pretty heavy.

[00:09:08]So not only do we have potentially a little uh sweep of the lows here, we catch some reclaims and show some strength. We have we have the institutions showing a little bit of interest again here which I I always say this isn't the end- all beall indicator but like I just like to lay it on top of other things here and while that is all going on as well the crypto fear and greed still sits in fear meaning that the average person is still relatively fearful that we're going to you know continue lower uh into the 30 $40,000 area more than likely throughout the time between now and October right stock market is also in an area of fear with the prices that we're sitting at up here. Uh, which we can take a quick peek at that too. But I also wanted to highlight how um, Bitcoin potentially is at major support here. And if we flip on over to look at the the total two chart, which is everything in crypto minus Bitcoin, uh, we are sitting at a major value area low or range low basically that we've seen for over the course of the last few years here as far as the value area will go. Uh, as well as around the 2025 lows also. And we have a couple of things that generated back above us. So, um, I bring this up because Bitcoin is sitting on some major support here. The altcoin market potentially is as well, right? And I'm anticipating a move up towards this region in the next coming months. We could get a little, you know, throwback first, but overall at least pushing up towards uh about the $1 trillion mark again. We're currently at about 893 billion, right? So, it's about a 10 12% move just to get to, you know, that region there. It really doesn't amount to too much. doesn't mean that we're in a you know full-blown uh alt season at that point. But from where we are right now, it is likely that we get a little bit of a push in the coming months up towards that $1 trillion mark again. And if I look at total three, this is uh everything minus Bitcoin and ETH. So this is just the altcoins basically. If I look at the anchored VWAP from our 2018 low, right? So our our COVID low actually uh from back here in 2020 uh which was the most notable, you know, sizable drop that we've had back there.

[00:11:10]And I've I've just let this ride. I've been looking at this over the last few years really. Uh and it's been a pretty decent area of support and resistance.

[00:11:17]We've come down and lost it around this region here. Hit our head on it for a little bit. Then that region got a push up carry trade low. This is exactly where we came down and you know got a bounce off of uh and then even for our February low came back down to it yet again. And that's right where we're sitting right now. Now, in the sense of uh beating up support or resistance, you know, this is quite a few levels that we've or quite a few times we've come down and tagged this. Uh so, as far as a strength meter would go, technically speaking, we could easily lose this at any point, too. But for now, I'm looking at this as it is. We're holding above it. It is a major support line that we can, you know, basically see going all the way back for the last six years now.

[00:11:59]And as well as 2025's low also. Okay. Uh we also now have a again high time frame average uh that is generated above us.

[00:12:08]These have a high statistical hit rate of getting met in the following session.

[00:12:12]So this again is likely to get met in the in the next six months of this year.

[00:12:16]So the second half of the year basically and if that's the case from where we are right now to that is about 12%. It's in line with the total two uh move that could be about 12% as well. And just seeing something along those lines, by the way, is uh just because it's 11, 12, 13% in the overall market, that still equates to a lot of altcoins seeing sizable moves. That could be a 100% mover uh for a couple things, 50% here and there. Uh doesn't necessarily mean everything will just only have a 10% bounce. Even that even though that's an incredible move on its own, uh but we have Bitcoin, Total Two, Total Three, all pretty much sitting on a sizable floor here. uh with you know fear still running through the streets. So the recipe is there folks that I think we could get at least a little bounce back up towards this region here. And what I like to present at that at this point too is that when you get positions uh around these areas and you ride it up even if we're heavily targeting this region to begin with and we want to gauge the reactions once we get there and if we start to reclaim that level we just blow right through it. From here we're looking for the next one up here and at that point we're already positioned from way lower. the risk is, you know, not that much um at that point compared to somebody who's going to be trying to rush into the market after after the move. Uh and then we can also take a little bit of profit right here, stash it on the side. I always have cash for the crash. Uh just in case we do just lose that a day or two later and it ends up rolling over on us, you know, still a winning move. Um and you can position yourself like that and and have skin in the game for a potential move higher as well as coming in when the fear is a little bit higher, right? like the the risk is still here, right?

[00:13:53]There's no guarantee that the market has to move up. But where we are right now, very easy invalidations, right? Come down and lose these lows. Well, then you just cut your losses or prepare for the the drop, right? Um much easier than getting a push all the way up to here, then deciding if, you know, we want to jump in at that point. Where's our stop loss or our invalidation going to be?

[00:14:14]It's going to be all the way back down below these lows again, 13% away from us. Uh we'd have to see price come all the way back down. uh just to get you know into a position where it's like oh do I cut it now that I'm down 15% and now I'm back to a key support you know you sell it support that's how somebody will sell it support right so anyways where it's key supports right now uh I think that it makes sense for Bitcoin uh to see a rise higher towards at least 66 and then if not 71 the altcoin market seems pretty good uh for a bounce here as well and the stock market still relatively holding um one holding this key level right here right this uh first major target area that I was looking for as we began 2024 pretty much. So, um, holding that for now. Again, fear is in the market here as people are really anticipating great recession and depression style crashes. Uh, and as long as we are holding above 7,400 right now, you you just have to anticipate that it's going to get a push for a new all-time high yet again. uh and then if not into that $7,700 mark. Uh losing 74 is where things can start to shift.

[00:15:20]Maybe we get a little bit of a cool down, a pullback, right? Even if we just get one back down towards 382 or gold pocket previous highs type of moves there. Um but for now, we're holding that key area. Um I don't see a reason why we wouldn't go to 7700 as long as she's holding above 74. All right, that's all for today's market update, folks. As always, stay patient, manage your risk, and let the key levels guide you. And real quick before we go, be sure to check out a new educational series that I filmed over with Kraken Crypto Exchange. For their YouTube over here, this is several episodes that will be released over the coming weeks covering trading strategies, market structure, risk management, and much more. When you go to their channel right here, you can scroll down towards the Kraken Pro sessions area. And you can actually see right here, it's in collaboration with Data Dash on these two. So, these two videos right here that were posted four days ago and two days ago are the ones that uh I'm in here. So, just be sure to give that a check. I would really appreciate it. Let me know what you think down in the comments below. My name is Paul Samson.

[00:16:18]Thank you all so much for watching. I'll see you all in the next video. And until then, everybody, cheers.