Trend changing for bitcoin and alts!!! {ALERT}

Añadido: 2026-05-13

[00:00:04]Good morning, guys. Okay, so we're looking at the trend changing uh Bitcoin sitting at resistance levels last week.

[00:00:14]Just as a quick recap for everybody, we were looking at the 80k relief rally call at these lows. We're now at 80K.

[00:00:22]So, this has played out. The market was choppy. I mean in all fairness I was looking at trying to get to the 80k relief rally call at these lower levels at an earlier stage and um you know it did look promising came right back down again just to test the support level and this is why you use the weekly time frame to help you with your bias because in the end of the day it's easy to get caught up in the up and downs and the chop of uh a typical range and lose sight of what it is we're trying to achieve. So, what am I saying, guys?

[00:00:57]Let's head over to the Discord. I want to go to the coin log. This is in the free member section. These are the coins that I'll keep track with you guys on the Discord or in in YouTube in the future. So, go and have a look at these coins. And today, we're going to just be looking at Bitcoin. Tomorrow, we'll be looking at Ethereum. And we'll be going through these coins at the right time when it is worth looking at them. Okay.

[00:01:22]uh each one of these coins if you go to the discord and you click on them will have their charts and everything that I have for them at this stage. Okay, so you will be able to follow along within that. So the coin log within the chart section is the important thing. Now how do you access it? Go to my page.

[00:01:39]It's free, completely free to join.

[00:01:41]Links in the video description and you'll be able to get uh access to all of this there. Okay, so what what have we looked at? So Bitwin on a weekly update. So what am I saying? So price typically fills trading gaps before the trend can resume. So if you're patient, you can get awesome entries trading in harmony with the weekly trend. It works until it doesn't, you know. So the trend will stay bearish weekly time frame until it doesn't. So where we're at right now, you can clearly see that last week or the Sunday, I was pointing out that the Bitcoin is at resistance. Last time we were here and this is now zooming into the smaller time frame.

[00:02:20]Major sellers stepped in. The hourly did close very strong as things stand. The weekly will close strong too. So the weekly did close strong leading me to believe that we will have another green week and that is definite possibility.

[00:02:33]Now if we zoom into this on the daily time frame, what have we done? We have created our first bearish divergence pivot. But yesterday in in in what's the word I'm looking for? Uh basically the market said screw that. It didn't want to fight with that. So what happened was we went to these lows at 80 and the daily still closed above that support level. So we're sitting in a situation where today is maybe a potentially another one of those scenarios where you know it's not accepting that it's ready to go bearish just yet and we're closing above this level. Now, it's worth noting the buddy system, the buddy indicator system.

[00:03:16]Looking at the entire bare market, it color codes the candles according to what the trend is. So, what we have was a really strong bull market leading up to the highs at 125 and there it started overriding the color candles blue from blue to red saying that listen, things have turned bearish now. we need to consider the the bearish momentum and it's been bearish ever since this is daily time frame until now. Now it's saying everything is aligned for a bullish trend. Uh so it's worth noting that although we seeing the daily strong bearish divergence forming, it's the first higher time frame scenario that we have to be open to the potential possibilities that things can go on higher. So to get back to the point that I'm trying to make, price typically fills the trading gaps before it can resume. And if you're patient, you can get awesome short entries right now, but it works until it doesn't. Now, how would it look if it doesn't? So typically what we'll find is price will go even higher still and turn this area into support. So now you can say I am reserved because we filled this area.

[00:04:31]Now I am reserved in a scenario that what we've done is we've reached our objective but in reaching our objective by the time that we got there the hope was that there would be enough bearish information here to say let's now go short at 80k. We don't have that yet. So I can't in good conscious just say okay now it's time to to move on. The market could chop around in this range and then give us the signal or it can build above and go on. So we have to be open to both possibilities for now. It's more of a holding station than anything else. Now what else do we have? So the 200 moving average guys say that you know this is typically a statistical line. Uh people start getting hesitant around these area. Nobody wants to buy the top and this is why price is hesitant right now.

[00:05:20]So we're reaching the 200 moving day average right now. I don't have a 200 day moving average loaded on the screen.

[00:05:27]I can quickly load one for you guys if my internet allows. I've been struggling with some internet. Let's see. U moving average. Um where's a moving average? Just a simple one.

[00:05:42]Oh, there it's coming through now. Uh I just want a simple trading view moving average. Come on, guys. There we go.

[00:06:00]There we go. Simple moving average. So, load. There we go. And I'm going to switch this on to the 200. So, now you if we can get there again. My my internet has been laggy as as of late.

[00:06:12]While that while this is happening, let's say hi to our regular viewers.

[00:06:16]Let's do that. There we go. Hello, Renee. Good morning to you.

[00:06:23]There's a delay on that as well. The buttons aren't seem to be working. Good morning, Altech codes. Good morning to you as well, buddy. [clears throat] And Firestorm and everybody else joining in live. Hello to you as well. There's definitely um you know, I've got a slow internet. So, now what we have right now is people are getting hesitant around this this range because the 200 moving average is sitting right there. So, it becomes a sticky point. People are uncertain. This is almost like a surprise short because people were expecting price to go and test it. Now we're sitting in a situation where price is testing it. What would be the biggest surprise for me personally is price goes above it and then moves back down below it. Now if we look at this from a fractal point of view. Let's just let's let's emotion you know imaginations run a little bit wild on a fractal point of view. The 200 moving average is not to be seen as a bull bay top signal line.

[00:07:20]Why? Because look at what it did here and then it reclaimed it. Funny enough, coincidental indoor indication of trend in that regard. And then look at what bottom go to the charts at the bottom still going to be loading. I have going through we had crazy stories. Internet is useless.

[00:07:45]Everything is delayed and slow and so I don't know how the live feed looks. It might probably be um useless. Peter, you can give me a thumbs up if the live feed is anything worth it.

[00:07:58]Thumbs up. Okay, so it's worth watching.

[00:08:00]Okay, so it's loading. It's loading very slow. But there you have it again. 200 moving average. So what is the the key takeaway from the 200 moving averages before I would even consider acting on it in any way? I will wait for the 200 moving average to at least go up and that means we need a long time for price to grind slowly so that we can get the flat line at some stage. It's just momentum. That's all that it is. Um sound breaks up a bit but yes I don't know Renee. I mean like I say everything is useless right now internet wise. I checked the speed. I nearly didn't do a live stream today. Uh okay, we're back. It seems to be back. I don't know.

[00:09:02]Yeah, it is very shaky.

[00:09:05]We gone again now. My trading view is gone. Uh, but I think the audio seems to be bit better.

[00:09:14]Peter, this is um, like I said, my internet's been like this since the um since the major storm hit. We've had it we had it crazy, guys. Last week we um we basically we we basically flooded and yesterday we basically blew away. This is our wind.

[00:09:33]Um let's see if this thing wants to load.

[00:09:39]So we had about crazy crazy weather and this is how our roads look after the the rain we had last week. So everything is useless um in in basically destroyed in that regard. So it's unstable as hell. So I do apologize if it's like this. Maybe I should have pre-recorded this maybe and just uploaded it because now I don't have any charts. Nothing seems to be loading. Uh let's see where we are right now. Let's see. Let's see.

[00:10:11]It seems back. Okay. Okay. So the point that I'm trying to make is that you shouldn't not use the moving average in any regard as anything worth um setting your sentiment. Okay. Now causality some guys are saying okay so typically in a bare market we see uh we won't see three uh green months in a row and they're saying that this could turn um you know we could make a turn bearish again. So there's the other side of things. Now, the causality uh the best way to get to that causality information is to just load, and I'm hoping that the internet will allow me to do this, the trend scope indicator. So, the trend scope indicator I have built in at the back of it.

[00:10:54]The um I'm just going to go to the template. It's probably going to be easier just to open the templates. Um, there we go.

[00:11:18]So, what they're saying is from a month pointer view, when we go through bare months, we have not seen three blue months in a row. So the argument being that where we are right now uh we're going to be we're going to be seeing another uh a bearish month. Now I don't really agree with any of that but be careful that those causality guys are looking at the market from that point of view and that can influence your sentiment. Okay. So try and stay away from stuff like that in all fairness if I can be honest with you guys. [snorts] And then what else do we have channels?

[00:11:49]So there's the bearish side of things.

[00:11:50]So guys are saying about the bearish channels out there and that they expecting price to sell down. Now what does a channel do or any pattern trading? Okay, it creates a bias and that then can can trick you because if it doesn't quite play out as per the bias um you know it it it shakes your faith in [snorts] in TA. So what are they saying? They're saying that this is what's happening right now. I'm going to draw this out real quick. We had trend break and now we're creating a channel.

[00:12:21]So now they're drawing. If my mouse would stop standing still, now they're drawing trend lines like this and they're drawing trend lines like this and saying this is the channel at which price is moving. And then they start drawing channel lines like this and channel lines like this and saying okay right we're at these areas right now. So we need to go down. But the problem is they had these channels and I'll probably draw let me draw this with a a better line. There it is. Let's make this line nice and thick. They had these lines drawn like this the other day saying that this is the channel price is moving towards. So, so the so the play is as soon as you start getting these biases on this, it starts setting you up and then when you have one candle that moves in the in the other direction, it shakes your faith and try and avoid that again as well. Take things level by level because it's going to it's going to trick you. It's going to get you into stuff hot water which you shouldn't be.

[00:13:19]So all that I have to say basically on this is keep an eye on the daily, keep an eye on the level at 815 and as long as we consolidate above that, dream and hope more or consolidate around that.

[00:13:31]There is questions around whether we're going to fall below 79 again and those are areas that the market could test and all of this could still be considered chop. Just trying to build momentum for more. Even even guys in my discord, no fairness, they really formidable traders now. They thinking bear b bear and I'm I'm I feel like I'm sometimes the only one saying that. But wait, there's not enough there just yet. I'm speaking for them. Their opinions might not be that.

[00:14:04]But let's just make that assumption. A lot of people eager saying, "Well, I missed out on this. I want to get this."

[00:14:12]Wait, because you don't know whether this is done. And in conclusion, if I look to Bitcoin on the smaller time frames, this is now the 4hour time frame. There's nothing bearish here right now. Everything according to the buddy is still bullish. Hidden bullish divergences are still playing out. We don't have at any stage a scenario where the momentum has flipped. The trend has flipped red. Everything is still pointing to the upside, which potentially means that the alts could still get a good good kick in the back and they could still rally somewhat.

[00:14:43]Okay. So just just in that now what else do we have here? So if we now talked about the lower time frames and um that shakeouts will typically hunt your stop.

[00:14:54]So if you're going to try and go short right now in this area, you could find that this be the ultimate move. But what would be the bigger way is the market is going to look for liquidity because liquidity is going to start drying out right now around about now. So, what the market's going to do is buy closing this zone here.

[00:15:19]Give I'm back. The guys internet keeps going and coming and going. I'm [snorts] I'm going to end this off. Having trouble connecting. My internet is really unstable. Okay. So, I don't know where I lost you. I don't know what we did and what I said and what broke through, but this is now the curse of going live. I will re-record and maybe upload a recording. But in short, the point I'm trying to get to is here you had strong bearish divergence as well. And the key here is whether the market accepts price what above that level and at that stage it still accept accepted price above that level. So if you have strong bearish divergence, your key is whether price wants to trade above that wick.

[00:16:29]Okay, that's simple. And there for all intents and purposes, that's a pull trap because that would have been a simple clear indication. Let's go. We we we still there. But now because the divergence pivot is there, that is the new level. Sweeps out, goes again. So now we've got that same scenario playing out in here again. So let me just talk you through it because I I hope that it comes through and then I'm going to end off the stream because I don't know how much has been cut off and lost. We have divergence. We have the scenario again.

[00:16:58]Okay. So what when do we really want to accept price to go above it again? When we close above this level. If you close above this level like we did there, you want to try and be short. But then you have the range as your invalidation.

[00:17:11]These areas become your stop levels for the sentiment. We do have yet again a higher high lower high in the same scenario. And what we need to do is delete hidden bearish divergence. So unless price goes below this level while the RSI is below this level, you can't say that this is bearish here. This is all just buying the dip territory. And that's basically my place. So to answer the question, is the train trend changing for Bitcoin right now? No, the trend isn't changing big picture for Bitcoin right now. Our altcoins do have really good upside potential and those coins have been have been shared in there as well. So go and have a look at that. So my recommendations are based on the following. This is just risk assessment ideas, guys. It's not financial advice. I cannot give financial advice. I cannot predict the future. But reducing your Bitcoin position is a smart thing. We're at a resistance level after all, but getting out completely isn't. Okay. Unverified additional information that I have or found is that Michael Sailor is also considering selling his Bitcoin. Now, now he's got a lot of Bitcoin that could add selling pressure into a weak bullish market. The momentum has been slowing.

[00:18:20]So, so the risk is to the downside far outweighs, you know, any upside potential because if Bitcoin goes to 87, but it can sell all the way back down to 60 or even 53, the risk to the downside is is more, you know, if you're holding a spot position before the long-term outlook. Now, long-term outlook is what I'm saying is the fouryear cycle is still alive and well. And in my opinion, the market's going to try and stick to that fouryear cycle. Let me just load this one real quick.

[00:18:54]I think it's this one. The market's going to stick to the four year cycle until it doesn't. No, it's not this one.

[00:19:00]With the internet being so horrible, guys, I should probably loaded this a little beforehand.

[00:19:06]There we go. Let's load the 4year cycle.

[00:19:09]And the four-ear cycle is simple, alive, and well. We still have until August before the market gets there. So, we could potentially still see the lower low. And I'm only going to, like I said, I was bearish right at the height of the cycle and said, well, what Bitcoin gave me is what it got, you know, and 125 is what it was and and I had to make peace with that. Whatever the low will be around that time is going to be the low for me. And if that means that it's a double bottom or something like that, accept it and move on because then statistically the odds are moving in our favor again for another upside cycle.

[00:19:40]And that's all that I'm going to try and stick to. And that means that the alts I'm buying right now are potentially also just trying to find a floor. So I'm looking at some of the stronger alts.

[00:19:50]Okay, so that's it. So in conclusion, trend is still there. The risk is getting higher to be a bull.

[00:19:59]Consider selling some of your your your um your your best performers because the risk now becomes more lean to the downside. And if we're wrong and the thing goes on higher, there will be a secondary test, the support level of this where you can then consider buying or diversifying into something else that is moving really strong or finding a floor. Okay, any one of these ones that I might might need to look at. So, I'm looking at EAT that is starting to look really good right now. Uh I looked at KA some, you know, some new launches. Hyperlid does look really good. Um it's it's reclaiming weekly resistance levels. So all of those are are signs, you know, if you look at this right now, the weekly time frame, what do we have? We we we're getting above these levels. So Hyperlid does have some good upside there. Uh so all of that and more in the Discord if you want to read up on that and I will be updating those charts if my internet permits it. Right. Uh just a quick shout out guys. um breakout prop channel sponsor. They updated their um their trading panel. And for any new account, somebody that opens a new account that did not have an account beforehand, if you buy a classic 100K account, I will give you that same value in subscriptions to my private group. So you can come and trade with me, meaning you'll get a year subscription to everything in the discord and everything I do within the discord. Okay, we do have the hodddle 100 in the discord now that has launched. It is uh in investment play. So there's the huddle log and these coins get categorized as per buys and sells. There's a list of all the coins and we manage that as a index to try and get as much as we can out of the altcoins. It's a diversified index. You get access to the trade logs and everything, all the trades I do. Uh this week with the internet, I have not done much. Last week's trade log, we had two good longs that played out quite nicely. And as well as you'll be part of a really strong community of traders, guys. These guys are really ripping it and killing it. So, you get to be with them. As the rule says, if you're friends with four billionaires, the fifth one will be you. And the reality is that uh mi mixing yourself and mingling with fellow traders, success is going to rub off on you. It's as simple as that, guys. So, make sure to either get access through the Discord or use Breakout Prop as a promotion for you to get access. So, you got your trading capital, you can come and join and come trade with me. Okay? It's simple as that. Um, in conclusion then, Bitcoin, you now know what you want to do, what I'm going to do. Nothing is financial advice. And uh for the rest of the altcoins and this list, stay tuned during the rest of the week. I will go through these coins and probably pre-record the videos seeing as my internet isn't working that well.

[00:23:06]Ethereum itself. Now, just as a quick brief recap, you can already see where I'm heading to with Ethereum.

[00:23:13]Weekly time frame, the goal was to try and hit this $2,800 level and where we are right now. We are consolidating on a break break off structure flipping a critical resistance area back into support and this could be the buy to try and drive price into these areas. This zone where we are right now 22 really good zone. Uh this does not necessarily mean we're going to go new all-time highs. Relief rally means that Bitcoin could slow down alts could speed up.

[00:23:42]Looking at Ethereum to the BTC pairing things does point to a potential reversal. And the same with BTC versus gold. Gold is one of the weaker looking ones right now. Okay, so uh I think that's everything that I wanted to say.

[00:23:56]Thanks for sticking it out for the regulars uh watching the video. I know that it's maybe lagging and dragging and and and not that nice. Uh I'll be back again and uh we'll be looking at more stuff. I think Peter was saying sound lost. Everything is just choppy. So I hope you guys got what you needed from this. Cheers everybody.