War Impact On India: Fuel Prices Surge, Rupee Weakens And Inflation Nears 5 Percent

本站添加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Mr. Subnavis, let me take that question to you. Put a number on this. What has this war already cost India?

[00:00:07]Energy, import bill, freight insurance, currency pressure, how bad is the damage?

[00:00:14]In fact, all the elements which you've spoken of have been affected on account of the war. Uh difficult to say at this point of time which is more severe because the way in which the transmission is taking place, is it all starts from the oil price, gets into inflation, then there are measures taken by the government to uh to bring about austerity. So, we have duty on gold and silver. So, we see some kind of a price push coming from that particular direction.

[00:00:39]Then, look at the way in which the government has tried to protect the household from the high price of crude oil. So, they took a part of the burden on the fiscal numbers, that is in terms of cutting off the excise duty. There's probably been increase in the fertilizer subsidy, so that is something which is going to affect the budget. And finally, of course, they have increased the retail price of petrol and diesel and CNG, which means that overall, I would say that the inflationary impact is something which is something which would have been uh expected. So, if you even go back towards what kind of forecast we had of inflation before the war began, we were looking at something in the region of 4% or maybe even lower than that. Today, we are really talking of inflation being in the region of 4 and 1/2 to 5% depending upon the severity of the war and the way in which these price hikes are implemented by the government. The currency, I would say is something which has definitely something which has been affected the most because for different kind of reasons. You know, the war has actually impacted the trade deficit.

[00:01:37]But, the kind of withdrawal we are seeing from FPIs, I think that has been a kind of a concern because it was happening even before the war began.

[00:01:44]But, that is something which is having a direct impact on the currency on a day-to-day basis. And then, last of all is whether the dollar is strengthening or weakening. Every time the dollar strengthens, we see that all currencies are weakening and the rupee is also weakening. So, on the whole, if I have to summarize, I would say the inflation impact and the currency impact have been more distinct. And the government on its part has made sure that there are no shortages. I think so, credit has to be given out there because the fiscal aspect has been tackled, but the price aspect