Grain Market Update - Corn, Soybeans & Wheat Price Outlook

Added: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]Well, as we continue to move through the growing season, we just want to give you an update here um on really the three major row crops. We'll start with corn, go on to beans, uh and wheat. We got Chad uh in here as well as we just kind of look at uh some some charts and fundamentals here um you know, as we head towards the summer months. So, we'll kick things off. We've got that weekly December continuous corn chart here in front of us. kind of highlighted a fairly narrow range about $5 resistance and you know probably some support here near-term at least around 470. Uh what are your thoughts on corn here today Chad?

[00:00:35]>> Just more or less stuck in this range in here right now. But I think what you have to do is just look ahead and and say, you know, what's going to be the major major factors in here and as we move past the energy markets, it just really comes down to weather and and specs. And on the weather side of it, you know, you can really spin things both ways, you know, and and I don't think either side has leverage, you know, I guess maybe my bigger concern right now is you got specs with a big net long position in the market and you tend to get massive moves in the market if you have both the fundamentals and the speculators moving on the same side.

[00:01:08]And so when we move past in here on planting and then when we get towards pollination in here, if we get spec selling and and the farmer dumping old crop at the same time, that's where the market has a risk of the big roll down low. On the other hand, you know, a breakout above five bucks probably needs a major weather issue. Now, now neither one of those situations are in the cards in here, let's say this week or next week, but that's something that as as the calendar turns to June and you get weather forecast peaking into July are going to have a major impact on the market.

[00:01:41]>> As we go back to that chart real quick now, when you talk about the funds maybe selling off, do you think that's something that pressures new crop down to 450 or do you think that's more old crop pressure here?

[00:01:51]>> You know, I think it's going to be really on both. I mean, there is some carry in the market in here. the old crop pressure really come from farmer selling, you know, when you look towards new crop de, you know, if we do take out the support area, everyone's going to talk about 450, you know, and I I'm one where I I just think we got to get further into the growing season and be more confident with this year's crop before you're going to get a sustained break below, let's say, 450 or 460 a bushel.

[00:02:18]>> So, as we look at the bean chart now in front of us, again, this is your weekly November continuous soybean chart. We've got 12 has been pretty steady resistance here and maybe 1150 is kind of near-term support. Um we've been a little more defensive beans this entire year. What where do you sit here today?

[00:02:37]>> No, I'm not the first one to admit this bean market has moved up higher than uh than I would have expected, especially when you look at where US prices are compared to the globe market. You look at a big South American crop here. You look at a big US crop last year and then increased acres. But, you know, where the market really got all of its support from is is is Trump likes soybeans, okay? And we've had, you know, trade deals last October that rallied this market, you know, trade deals this winter and then another one here this last spring. And you just kind of really wonder how often can we bring these trade deals to the table with potential without anything actually showing up.

[00:03:15]And you know, I don't want to be critical of this last trade deal, but you know, I mean, everyone wants to make a big deal that, hey, China's committed to buying 17 billion dollar in US egg goods. And yes, that's double from what it was in 2025, but the previous five years, we sold $30 billion to China. And and the other thing too when you get to the wording of the the trade deal, it specifically says in addition to soybean purchase commitments that it which is China made in October of 2025. Well, in October 2025, China only committed it by tw 12 million metric ton this past year.

[00:03:52]There is nothing about future years. It was just our treasury secretary who said that. And I think something would be interesting and I hope someone does ask does ask Bessant this when he comes on TV next is is clarify is is it 25 million metric ton did China commit to that or not? You know to me it just seems a little bit doubtful in here and again I don't want to poo poo these trade deals but it just seems like there's much more hype with them than actual reality down the road. So something we always hear on beans is you really don't spend historically a lot of time between 11 and 12. You either kind of have to accelerate through 12 up into the 13 or we come back below 11. As we sit here today, are we making the argument that you have a higher price floor where we hold 1150 or do you think the the historical norm holds true and we head back below 11 or accelerate to 13? I mean, it's a tough call. Well, I I I think the one thing is if we're going to move higher, I think it's all on the weather card, similar to what you have on corn. But but then, you know, you look at the the other the other side of it and and again, I don't want to be doom and gloom on soybeans, but I got to tell you, 11 and 12 soybeans is going to buy a lot of acres in South America. No one is going to slow down. And and sure, we got a bit of a bounce bump from the bofuel debate in here for usage. Other than that, we just don't have any growing usage globally, but we've got a price incentive out there to raise a lot of soybeans, you know, and the other thing too with beans, we just got to remember specs can dominate the bean market or the bean complex. And just look across the board from soybeans to meal to oil, specs are already heavily heavily net long. So, you know, to to me, a lot of the bullish cards have already been placed in the soybean side of it. you know, if we're going to accelerate, I'm just going to go back towards we need a major major weather issue sitting here at the end of May today. That doesn't seem to be in the cards, but that can change.

[00:05:53]>> As we look at wheat now, we've got the weekly July continuous Chicago wheat chart. That market really accelerated uh like you said, off of crop problems. We all can agree that that will generally off offer bullish catalyst. 650 kind of a good resistance point here as we look at the July Chicago chart and maybe support around 575. Are we looking at again probably a higher price floor on Chicago wheat? But what are we going to do to accelerate it?

[00:06:19]>> You know, and I that's a dilemma here whether you're looking at Chicago wheat or KC wheat is that that to me Chicago tailed along KC as there are major crop issues. I mean just look at the crop ratings of the poorest it's been in in more than 30 years. But then it comes down to for the markets, it's what's next. I mean, these are the futures market. They're not the past market. And so, you know, we got to ask what's going to feed us. And I think that's where the wheat bulls are really going to, you know, look towards spring wheat or Minneapolis wheat, especially with warmer, drier weather up in the northern plains right now where that could be that next bullish catalyst as we do have no doubt there is a really bad hard red winterw wheat crop out there. So much puts more pressure on raising a big spring wheat crop. So I I think you know that's the next bullish catalyst is potentially spring wheat futures. On the other hand, you know, similar to soybeans, you know, US wheat is just too expensive on the world market.

[00:07:18]>> Well, as we look at kind of closing this thing out, you know, at the end of the day, we always want to encourage guys to just focus on dollars per acre. There's certainly going to be a lot of volatility out there as we head into the back half of some of the weather markets. Um, we we tried to highlight some targeted areas, I guess, that we would consider for you to have some orders working above the market. Um, I think it might be fair to say that overall, if you want to be optimistic grains, you can make the argument right now today that we could see some higher price floors than we have in the past few years. Uh, but again, you still kind of have to market, you know, within that year, right?

[00:07:51]>> Well, exactly. And I think the one thing what's probably changed the most over the last six months is we've bumped up the floor prices in here right now. But I I just really really question if we need sustained moves above $5 on corn or or 12 or $13 on beans or above seven or or or8 on wheat and then it just comes back down from a marketing standpoint in here. You know, I mean my golden rule is sell when you want to, not when you have to. And you know, like like the thing I continue to mention to to to producers is I I think a big goal this year is that put yourself in a position that if the markets do break and we do have $4 corn or we do have $10 beans or we do have five or 550 wheat that you don't have to sell, that you can just shut the bin door and wait things out and say there's going to be better opportunities down the road. And I I think that's one of the the biggest challenges for producers out there right now is hey, make sure you got enough sales, cover some expenses, cover cash flow in here right now, but also save enough that if the markets do move higher, you can reward the market. But at the same time, if we do fall apart, you can sit there and go look at I'm fine. We just have to avoid selling a large share of the crop in a whole.

[00:09:09]>> Yeah. Hope you guys enjoyed the video.

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