I Found the XRP Supply Shock...

[00:00:00]I think I found the XRP supply shock.

[00:00:03]Might sound a little crazy, but ultimately I do think we are on the cusp of something pretty major. Let me just go ahead and turn my phone on to do not disturb here whilst we do a recording because this is an interesting one.

[00:00:19]Right, we have seen XRP for the last 12 months behave frustratingly, right?

[00:00:25]price crashing down, going sideways, just completely infuriating the XRP community and holders. This comes after reaching $366 in July 2025. And since then, the price has not really been behaving the way that many people were expecting. But we're starting to see some data change in the kind of background that people might not be paying close enough attention to. Now, I've spoken about this a couple of times from different kind of exchange perspectives, but we now have even more data to reflect on what's going on with XRP.

[00:01:07]But before we get into that, let me introduce you introduce you to myself.

[00:01:12]My name is Nick. If you're new to the channel, this might seem like a very odd crypto video. Not something that, you know, you'd expect to see, right? You normally expect to see some guy in the bottom corner over here somewhere, right? And then like, you know, have a Twitter feed up or something, right? But no, I'm not about that kind of lifestyle. I'm usually doing content that's in a studio that's highly polished, scripted, not AI. I know people hate AI these days. I do use AI for my workflows, but not for scripting purposes. But normally I like to script the videos. I like to kind of make sure that I cover all of the data points.

[00:01:47]Make sure you get all of the right information and that I'm not just, you know, regurgitating some rando anonymous person account on X and pretend that it's factual information, right? I like to do proper journalism where possible.

[00:02:01]But on the flip side of that, these videos are in complete contrast to it.

[00:02:06]These videos are about keeping it as real as possible with you guys so that you guys can just get this kind of really real raw personal approach to my own thoughts and opinions of what's going on outside of the kind of polished video that I like to do personally.

[00:02:21]Actually, on that note, before we get into the XRP supply shock, you can let me know your thoughts on all this in the comments down below. Right? Do you prefer the polished factual videos or do you prefer the kind of videos like this where I'm just walking around talking to you guys and just having a good chat about what's going on in the space? And the reason that I'm asking is I obviously prefer the studio stuff, the scripted stuff, the the more factual because it feels like I'm actually delivering value, right? Whereas this kind of feels like cheating. It feels like I haven't earned your time, your attention, your views on the video because all I've done is picked up a camera and went for a walk and just chatting to you guys. Whereas the amount of work that goes into a video in the studio is a good 6 hours worth of work per video, right? If not more. So that feels like I've earned your attention.

[00:03:15]That feels like I've earned the view that you've given the video. Whereas this, it feels like cheating. So you can let me know what your thoughts are in the comments down below. And the other [snorts] thing is I chose this spot today because historically it's been very very quiet and I've just bumped into like so many people and I'm also an introvert so I don't like talking to a camera out in public very often and um I say I don't like doing it like I try to find places where I'm not going to see people so that I can just you know do this in one cut and and all that kind of stuff. But today, today I seem to be just bumping into dog walkers everywhere. [laughter] And uh yeah, it's not really my scene. I don't like to have to have human interactions. I'm a crypto investor. We don't do that. Uh we like to kind of stay to the desktops, right? Anyway, digest and divest.

[00:04:08]Don't even know what I'm saying anymore.

[00:04:09]Let's talk about XRP. Let's talk about the supply crunch, the supply shock. Um the terminology gets thrown around an awful lot. Um so let's go ahead and break it down because a supply shock in its most simplest of terms is quite simple.

[00:04:25]There's more demand than there is supply. Now in order to get a supply shock, you need to see two things happen. You need to see the supply contract and you need to see the demand increase. Sounds pretty basic, pretty simple, and it is. It is. But a lot of people throw the terminology around all the time because it gets the clicks. It gets the headlines and well, people love it, right? They they love the idea that a supply shock is just around the corner and everyone's going to make a become a millionaire tomorrow, right? That's not really what this video is about. This video is about giving you the as much factual information as you can. And I'm going to kind of communicate why I think we may have just found the beginning of a supply shock again. Now, this setup isn't new. This setup has actually been bubbling in the background pretty much since late 2024, beginning of 2025, into 2025, throughout 2025, and into 2026.

[00:05:22]Kind of cooled off a little bit after the price kind of lost the $2 level. But the mechanics behind the supply shock are still there. Even when sentiment cools off, retail investors get infuriated with the price action not doing anything. when retail investors capitulate, but the data itself hasn't overly changed all that much. So, let's talk about what's going on. So, we saw Binance recently. Binance had actually now seen an outflows outpacing their inflows for XRP. It's actually dropped their reserves to the lowest point since February. All right. So, it's a fivemon low point on the Binance exchange, which is obviously the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange. Right. So that's quite an important tell. But it doesn't stop just at Binance. I mean Binance I think has dropped down to like 2.21 billion in terms of XRP reserves, right? And that just means and it's really important to understand that isn't that Binance has 2.2 billion XRP that's for sale. Binance doesn't actually sell XRP. The exchanges don't sell XRP. Retail investors do. Retail investors buy and sell. Right? The XRP that's on Binance, the 2.21 1 billion that is that is either um you know Binance's personal reserves which is very unlikely or it's the actual balances of all of the users who have XRP on the Binance platform. That is more realistic. Now that means that just because there's 2.21 billion on Binance right now doesn't mean that there's 2.21 billion available to sell.

[00:06:59]But it does mean is that there is 2.21 21 billion that could be sold pretty quickly if people decided that they wanted to. So that's the first kind of thing we need to understand, right? The difference between how some retail investors think the market works versus how it actually works, right? Retail investors think they go to an exchange, they go and buy XRP, and that they're buying it from the exchange. They're not. They're buying it from other people who are willing to sell it, right? The exchanges make money from the fees that they associate with trades amongst a few other methods as well. Because if you hold reserves on your platform, they essentially uh let's say you hold XRP on Binance as an example, they they basically owe you the XRP, right? That's basically what you have. All of these exchanges operate the same way, right? Not your co uh not your keys, not your crypto is the saying. And what that basically means that if you have your crypto on an exchange, [snorts] they promise to give you the crypto, but they actually can use it for whatever purposes they want. Lend it, manage it, whatever. So, there's many different ways that exchanges make money from you guys operating on them. Which is why I'm always talking about the redundancy strategy, right? Which is basically making sure that you set up on as many centralized exchanges as possible, top tier ones, of course. And you'll find links in the description down below or even the pinned comment.

[00:08:20]So, make sure that you set up your redundancy strategy. And this important because you don't necessarily want to have all of your crypto on one place.

[00:08:27]And if you do use cold storage, that's great. That's fantastic. But you're going to want to make sure that you always have a route to exit and you don't just have one door. You're going to want multiple doors, right? So, always make sure that you set up multiple exchange accounts. You can check the links down below. They are affiliate links. They support the channel here and it's very much appreciated. Um, but the strategy is the same. Regardless of whether it's my links or not, set up as many crypto exchanges as you can. Make sure you get the KYC done so that you are never just kind of in the moment getting locked out of the market, right? You're going to want a way to manage. Anyway, Binance's reserves dropping is an indication that there's been a lot of withdrawals, and that's where Wales have come in. Wales have actually been withdrawing an awful lot of XRP, right? Um, we saw 4.6 6 billion in the last 12 months getting absorbed by whale addresses, right? And that's not just Binance, that's others as well because we also see by bit with now more outflows than inflows when it comes to XRP. So, Binance is low is losing XRP in its reserves. So is Bybit.

[00:09:36]And the one that caught my attention today and that sparked this video is Coinbase. Coinbase has now accelerated its withdrawals or people withdrawing from Coinbase at a 2.3 times higher than the other platforms. That is showing us that there is a huge withdrawal happening on the Coinbase platform. And if you remember from I think late 2025, Coinbase was um I think it had dropped like 90% of its reserves. there was a mass exit from keeping XRP on that platform. So, right now we can see that there's the potential for a supply shock that is brewing here, right? It's not happening tomorrow. It's not happening necessarily next week, but the mechanics behind it are there. And it's important that we kind of acknowledge what they mean. So, let's break this down further, right? If the supply on exchanges is decreasing, what does it actually mean?

[00:10:35]Well, it means that people whether they are Wales institutions or retail investors have decided that they no longer want to keep their crypto or their XRP in this case on the centralized exchanges. It's a pretty wise thing to do. We don't generally want to be keeping crypto on the exchanges anyway. It's high risk. Like I say, the exchanges, they promise to give you the crypto, but if they go bankrupt, well, that becomes a promise that they cannot fulfill, right? And that is the case of FTX. You could do everything right. You could make the perfect entries at the bottom. You could try to sell the perfect tops, but if the platform that holds your crypto assets goes down, your crypto, it goes down with them. Which is why that redundancy strategy is so important.

[00:11:20]So, what we've got going on then is a mass exit. Now, that's important because it basically means that the supply side of the equation for price action is getting smaller. So, like I said earlier, the supply has to contract, and that is what we're seeing. Now, we're not seeing the other side just yet.

[00:11:38]We're not seeing the demand kick in, but we are setting up the potential for a supply shock on XRP with the supply decreasing and contracting in. We only need now a spark of interest to start to cause a significant rally. Now, don't get me wrong, right? There are many other exchanges out there and I've only got data today for Binance, Coinbase, and Bybit, but Asian platforms are pretty massive as well when it comes to XRP.

[00:12:09]So, just because the Western exchanges are decreasing doesn't necessarily mean the eastern ones are. They might be increasing, right? But at the moment, it looks like we have the the start of something pretty interesting for the supply shock, right? a tightening of that supply. When demand kicks in, the price will probably react pretty violently and pretty fast. That basically just means that we're going to get that initial kind of knee-jerk reaction in the market. Retail investors will probably think that that's going to be a fake rally, um, a fake recovery, something to sell into, and that might be the case. We might start to see a bit more selling pressure there. But if the demand increases and maybe some retail investors see it as the start of a a bottom in forming and maybe they jump in with some FOMO on the back of a green candle that could fuel it even further.

[00:12:59]And of course, the leverage derivatives markets will also have a significant impact here because if we start to see a significant rise in the XRP's price and there's a lot of short sellers, well, those short sellers are forced to close and that causes a short squeeze, which pushes the price further higher, which then fuels more FOMO, which then fuels more shorts liquidations, and which then fuels even higher price action, and it becomes a bit of a flywheel effect. So, it's important that we understand that we're only at the very beginning of what is potentially there, but it's a promising sign nonetheless. You see, for months, we haven't seen such positivity in the market. We've just seen a kind of a sideways chopping market, kind of trying to hold support around $1. And the market's just not really been that interesting to retail investors. Retail investors have ultimately been capitulating because the price action just hasn't been what they were expecting it to be. And now now we actually have at least an opportunity.

[00:14:02]Ow. Just twisted my ankle. That hurt.

[00:14:05][gasps] Ow. Um, but there's now an opportunity here to uh to kind of say that the price action seems to be an afterthought and we should actually be checking and tracking the onchain data too with what wallets hold what crypto with what the exchanges are doing. What we are seeing the behavior change on those exchanges because typically the price action it lags behind the behavior of the actual participants. So we don't have to pay attention too much to the candlesticks.

[00:14:40]What we do want to pay attention to though is increase in volumes. We want to pay attention to increase in withdrawals. Is there more going into exchanges than coming out? Is more coming out than going in? Right? Because if the if we are right about this and we're starting to see the mechanics of a supply shock, then we're at the beginning of something that could be a beginning of a bull market for XRP.

[00:15:03]something that we haven't seen for many, many months. Of course, it's just my own personal thoughts and opinions, you know, as I personally see it. Um, but of course, you can let me know what your thoughts are in the comments down below.

[00:15:16]Also, let me know what you think about the videos like this or more studio based. Let me know in the comments down below. But for now though, smash that like button, subscribe if you're new, and I will catch you all in the next