This Stock Market Pattern Should Put Us on ALERT (here's why)

Added: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]Hey guys, Alex here. Hope you're well. I haven't talked about the stock market for a while. So, in this video, I want to take a look at the chart the major stock markets here and discuss what potentially could be happening here. And in fact, I want to discuss with you some really interesting data here. I'll explain to you the meaning and significance of this and al some interesting charts. We'll go through them here and also this particular data you're seeing here. And I want to explain to you why we could be coming to a very important critical point here in the major stock markets. All right, guys. Join me.

[00:00:30]All right guys, welcome back. So, it's good to do a fresh update on the major markets. In fact, we'll have a look at this particular chart and also this particular data in just a few minutes.

[00:00:36]But first of all, I want to begin with this important chart which is a screenshot of my video from almost a year ago in April of 2025. So, in my members video last year, I put out this particular chart, this wave count on the stock markets. At the time last year, by the way, the S&P in April of last year was at approximately this level, just under 5,600, as you can see here. Now, obviously, we're way above that. But here's what I said in that video, my members video on April 27th of last year. So, this particular wave count has now gained a much higher probability based on the data we just looked at.

[00:01:10]This has significantly increased the likelihood that the market could make new highs in the next several months.

[00:01:16]And indeed, I've actually plotted here.

[00:01:17]I've actually pointed out the levels um quite clearly on this chart. I'm now looking for the market in the next several months and likely potentially by the end of this year to move to the first target. So we could see this wave five extend much higher to over the 7,000 level. That's for the 12 month period which could take us eventually 7,278.

[00:01:38]All right guys, thanks for watching that. So that's one of the important things about Eliot waves because they have this predictive potential and obviously as you can see here the S&P has now exceeded that level. were above that level I mentioned last year. By the way, I want to make it very clear that I'm not saying that wave five has topped or completed. No, I don't think as yet there's any indication that wave five has topped. And there's still potential for this wave five to extend higher this year despite any pullbacks or corrections we might get this year. All right, guys. Let's take a look at this particular data I want to show you here.

[00:02:05]Now, let me just first of all explain where I got this data from, courtesy of Jay Keell of Sentiment Trader. Now, in a video of his that I watched, Jay Couple mentioned that there's a seasonal pattern that occurs every decade. So, every 10 years, you get this seasonal pattern called a mid decade bulge. In other words, every 10 years between year two and year six of that decade, we see what's called a very strong period, what's called a mid decade bulge. In other words, that particular period, we see a big bulge.

[00:02:35]>> That's what she said.

[00:02:36]>> Or in other words, a lot of strength and positivity in the major stock markets.

[00:02:39]In fact, we can see that that period started in 2022, September 2022, but it ends March 31st, which by the way, we just finished recently. Now, let me just show you some examples. So, here's 2022.

[00:02:52]September 2022 was here all the way to March of 2026. Again, the mid decade bulge. We can see a very strong period.

[00:03:00]Despite the volatility that we had in that period, it still managed to extend higher. And obviously I realize we're above those levels now from March, but I'll explain in a few minutes what that potentially could mean. Here's another example. So this is from 2012, from September of that year to March 2016.

[00:03:18]Here's another example from 2002. Again, you can see September 2002 was very close to the bottom and all the way 2006. You can see again a very strong period again the mid decade bulge. So, as you can see from this data from Jaykeell, look at the mid decade bulge going back all the way to the 20s, the 1920s. And as you can see here, notice that the four-year period from the second year to the sixth year of that decade, as you can see here, for the last 100 years has typically been positive. You can see on the right hand side. So, the percentage positive or the win rate is very high. In fact, the only period the only period when this was not positive was in the 70s. So in other words, that's almost a 90% win rate for the markets for this mid decade bulge.

[00:04:06]So again, the majority as as we mentioned, 90% of the time it's positive. And we can see the average return has been about 65% with a median return of about approximately 59%.

[00:04:18]That's very good. Now let me first of all explain that Jay Keell is not saying that once this period comes to an end in March on March 31st that suddenly the market just tops and then crashes. He's not saying that and that's not how we should interpret the data. What it does mean however is that perhaps the the easy period for the markets could be coming to an end. So this particular seasonal pattern which happens every 10 years every decade seems to indicate that in this period again from the second year to the sixth year of that decade that happens to be a favorable a positive seasonal period where the easy money again in quotation marks where the easy money can be made in the stock market. However once that period that seasonal period comes to an end then it becomes perhaps much more complicated and less easy perhaps for the uptrend in the market to continue. Again, it does not mean the market has to top immediately, but it does mean we should be very cautious because if for any reason, let's say for example, for any reason in the next several months, let's say in the next 3 to 6 months, if for any reason the stock market were to trigger a bearish reversal signal, any kind of a reversal signal that's bearish or negative, if that happens, I'm not saying it's going to happen, but if that occurs, that means we should be extremely cautious and on our guard that perhaps the market could be reaching a top. Now, let me just say this. I personally don't think it's likely for the market to top this year. So, I'm not expecting a crash or a major bearish scenario. Although, I do think given the conditions in the market right now being extremely overstretched and overbought as it is, I think a pullback is quite probable. So, I am expecting a sizable pullback or some kind of a retracement or a minor correction in the next several weeks. I think a pullback or retracement after such a strong rally is probable. And by the way, go and watch my members video about which particular levels we could come down to. But overall, I think once we get this pullback and retracement or correction out of the way, I'm still remaining bullish for the remainder of this year, despite the fact that perhaps the easy period for the market seasonally has come to an end. And by the way, you have to remember that from a seasonal perspective, we're coming across some headwinds, some major obstacles for the market because usually the period from May to June, as we see here, is typically negative. Not a great period for the market. All right, guys. Thanks very much indeed. Make sure you go ahead and watch my members video about more details. Thanks very much indeed. I look forward to seeing next video update. Bye for now.