Stop trying to predict the market

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Most traders fail not because they don't understand technical analysis or they can't listen and implement what their mentor is telling them. No, they fail because they think in certainties in a game that is entirely based on probabilities. I'm Malik and this is Crackit Pro Session.

[00:00:18]Now, in this episode, I'll teach you exactly what you need to understand and know about probabilities.

[00:00:27]Now before we begin, it's important that you understand why people pivot towards thinking in certainties and not probabilities. You see, most traders enter a market thinking that every single trade has a clear answer, right?

[00:00:40]This is a picture perfect setup. If I trade this, well then I am going to win.

[00:00:44]But the reality is there is absolutely no certainty in this market. In other words, there is no such thing as a perfect trade and there is absolutely no such thing as a guaranteed outcome.

[00:01:00]But what does probabilistic thinking actually mean? It's incredibly simple, yet most traders will never truly understand it. Mark Douglas, the author of Trading in his Own, dedicated his entire career to make traders understand exactly what it means to think in terms of probabilities. It's not a prediction.

[00:01:18]It's not a guarantee. It is a probability. You take 100 different trades. You have 55 of those that are winners and then you have 45 of those that are losers. That's it. Yet, in the grand scheme of things, one individual trade means absolutely nothing. So, stop asking, is this trade going to win?

[00:01:36]Because the moment you start caring about the outcome of any individual trade, well, then you've already broken your entire system.

[00:01:47]You see what you have to learn is think about the next series of trades. You need to think about the next 50, 100 or 200 trades because that is exactly what matters. A trader will have a win. They will get overconfident and they will take a new trade with more size attached to it. The moment you start attaching extra size to certain trades, well then that one trade has gotten into your head and all of a sudden you're not thinking in series, you're thinking about that one individual trade. You see, you have probably tried so many systems, right?

[00:02:18]Me included. I have tried probably 50, 100, or even 200 trading strategies. And each and every single one of those strategies might have worked perfectly over a series of 100 trades. The problem is I never let it reach 100 trades because I couldn't think in terms of series. The simple truth is your profitable system is only profitable over an extended period of time. It is not profitable one by one. Profitable traders, they think like the casino owner. Whereas unprofitable traders, they behave and act like the consumer.

[00:02:49]They let time do the heavy lifting. They don't care because they understand the system. And that is exactly how you should operate. You're not here to win every single trade.

[00:03:03]Now, I want to give you an actionable takeaway just like I've done in every other video because understanding it is one thing and implementing it is everything. So, this four-step plan I'm about to give you here can literally change the trajectory of your entire career. So, do not sleep on it. The first thing you have to do is define your system. You need to control every single variable that you possibly can.

[00:03:25]So that means you have clear entry criteria. You have stop-loss criteria.

[00:03:29]You know exactly where to place your take-profit. And there's logic behind every single one of those decisions. You know exactly when you're going to move your stop loss to break even, when you're going to take a partial, when you are going to activate a trailing stop-loss. If it's not defined like I just described it, well then it's not a probability. It is simply nothing more than a gamble. Step number two is to track your data. You need to log and write down absolutely everything that you possibly can. trades, emotion, stop-loss placement, take-profit placement, when did you take your break even? Why did you take your break even?

[00:04:01]When did you activate a trailing stop-loss? Why did you execute this specific asset, not the other asset?

[00:04:06]There's so much data, and you need to collect every little piece of it. Step number three is going back to thinking in series. You need to stop judging yourself, your system, and your performance on a day-to-day basis. Think in 20 trades, 50 trades, 100 trades.

[00:04:20]Those are the numbers that actually matter. Step number four is something that has literally changed my entire career for the better. And that is to standardize your risk. See, what I used to do was I would have a bunch of trades, right? And I would look at them and then I would try and evaluate what the probability of this playing out actually was. The higher the probability in my head, well, the more risk I was going to attach to that individual trade. So, for example, let's say we have five trades here. I consider all of these five A+ setups. In other words, they are the best of the best. And because of that, I am going to attach $1,000 to all of these. But then we have five other trades here, and I consider them Btier. They're okay that, you know, there's probably not a very high chance that they're going to play out. And so I am going to attach, you know, $100 to all of these out here. But because trading is based on probabilities and not certainties, all of these out here that I attached $1,000 to could fail, and all of these out here that I attached $100 to could win. What you have to understand is that each and every outcome is random. So, the fix here is simple. You use the same exact risk on each and every single trade that you place. Should I not just attach $50 to them in case they do win? No. What you should do, in fact, is probably not take those trades at all. You need to have clear criteria, right? And if a trade fills up all the criteria, well, then you're simply going to take that trade. And that means every single trade is going to look awfully similar. So, there is really no such thing as a lowgrade setup and a high-grade setup.

[00:05:45]Control everything you possibly can.

[00:05:48]That is your entire job. As traders, we have little to no control. So the things that we do control, we better take action on. That's things like where you place your stop, when you enter your trade, the amount of risk that you attach to each and every trade that you place. These are the variables that you can actually control. Your system, your edge, your rituals, your environment, your discipline. All of these things is exactly what you control. And all of these things is exactly what allows you to finally succeed. And I know most people have not even gotten this far into the video, and the people that do have will click off this video and forget about it tomorrow. Promise me one thing. Do not be one of those people.

[00:06:26]Ladies and gentlemen, I want to thank you for watching this video. This was Kraken Proessions. Now, if you enjoyed it, well then do me a favor and subscribe to the Kraken YouTube channel.