Why Cattle Prices Keep Climbing in 2026

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:08]Welcome back to this week's episode of the Real Country File.

[00:00:12]We have barley whiskers.

[00:00:14]Barley near harvest does feel like it is around the corner.

[00:00:19]Moody skies tonight, but we have had some great weather over the last fortnight since since the last episode.

[00:00:24]Coming up on this one, uh we have an update from Neil up in Scotland, and Stephen catches up with Phil from Norbreck Genetics. In fact, we go up No, we won't go to Phil just yet.

[00:00:36]Fertilizer. Now, it's obviously ridiculous price. It's probably nearly double what I paid last year.

[00:00:42]And for the first time ever, I have actually ordered fertilizer without selling wheat on the same day. Normally, what I'd do is I'd hedge me fertilizer, I'd order wheat, I'd sorry, I'd sell wheat, and I'd buy fertilizer the same day. But, I feel like the wheat market's got a lot further to go than than it should do.

[00:00:58]And the fertilizer market could equally go up, and supply could be an issue. So, for the first time ever, I haven't back-to-back it. I'm just keeping me fingers crossed that the wheat's going to rise, and I'll sell that at a better price, which should cover some of the rise from the fertilizer costs. Anyway, we're going to head over now to um Stephen, who's catching up with Phil at Norbreck Genetics. So, over to Stephen.

[00:01:20]Well, we better start by saying a massive thank you to this week's sponsor of the Real Country File. Phil's here.

[00:01:27]Phil, Phil, I I don't know how are you, Phil? Very well, thank you. I Oh, good.

[00:01:32]Some of your genetics behind us, is it, mate? Yes, it This is some of the most popular genetics that we're selling at the moment. It's the Shorthorn genetics. Ben Towers here, his brother Jonathan, they've been using these genetics on their red and white, predominantly red and white Holsteins, Ben, for quite a number of years, and it's they're really popular. And I'm sure we're going to get into the topic of beef and the price of beef and where we are, albeit on the back of a very low milk price. You mentioned price of beef, we'll get onto that in a minute, but I'm just keen where you are at a minute with milk, aren't you? Milk, our milk price, Steve, we're very fortunate to be on a new contract with First Milk Co-operative.

[00:02:13]So, you're happy with Well, we're we're we're we're happy.

[00:02:17]But, the general milk price is is under a lot of pressure. Still a lot flying this country at the moment, isn't there?

[00:02:22]I don't know.

[00:02:24]But, on the flip side beef.

[00:02:27]So, yeah. So, the the global production of milk at a minute, Steve, is just off the clock. I don't know. I mean, we keep hearing about sort of 4 and 5 and even 6% excess production at the same time as with all the disruption and Ukrainian war, the Iran war, consumption is at best pretty flat. Very little growth in consumption. So, that extra capacity has to be dealt with.

[00:02:52]Talk to all the processors. Fortunately, um not everyone's on an aligned contract with a supermarket. They're you know, they're supplying other outlets, and those markets are under a lot of pressure. So, um it's it's really challenging. But, one of the great things, I think, at the moment for a lot of farmers, unlike, let's say, 10 years ago, is beef from dairy has become a real thing. So, the suckler industry, the the the cow calf industry, as we call it, there's is is really in decline. Keeping a cow all year to rear one calf in this sort of challenging environment of cost increases in terms of the environmental impact uh is becoming harder. So, the dairy farmer, like Ben and his brother Jonathan, uh producing 10,000 plus liters of milk, and that's super dairy cow, uh and then these wonderful calves here that you can see on the camera. Um Ben, when you go to the market [clears throat] in the next couple of weeks, we're going to be up at maybe 900 even 1,000 lb for Quite possibly. Quite a 12 to 14 week old calf.

[00:03:56]Um that feeds on to consumers who are really appreciating real food. Stephen, we've talked about this a lot over the summer season at the shows and things with consumers. Great that they're back into realizing what great British food's all about. What protein, real protein is and that's what these these girls are doing and these lads are doing for us in terms of producing quality meat. That's a strong running out 45 years ago I asked that.

[00:04:26]And that 900 for it. Yeah.

[00:04:28]So that's that's a jewel.

[00:04:31]A good news story I mean I guess we're all waiting for it.

[00:04:33]And the best calves are making what cattle are making.

[00:04:39]It's a global phenomenon. So only two years ago at the CMEX conference in Glasgow, there was an American over he was talking about $900,000 calves from the dairy herd in America and I I was, you know, my eyes were wide open and I thought well this he's got the figures wrong or he's he's got the wrong price or whatever but he hadn't.

[00:04:59]And then only several weeks later that arrived on our shore >> [snorts] >> and we've seen that across the globe.

[00:05:04]In America a 75 year low in beef production. And then you've got all this disruption around the world.

[00:05:12]So it's by no means a great news story because the costs that go with rearing these things, you know, these animals to sort of 18 months, 20 months old is it's a real pressure for the rearers and finishers.

[00:05:25]And ultimately the consumer we're here trying to produce food at an affordable price. So we've got to be very careful that we keep everything in balance.

[00:05:35]And then the other the other one the other strange thing that's not strange but the other piece of the jigsaw is GLP-1s, the fat jabs. That is an amazing thing that's rolling across the world now and what people are doing they're eating 10 to 15% less consumption which is going to be a challenge again for farmers as we see consumption drop.

[00:05:58]Well, that's balanced with that and I read read a lot of articles that protein.

[00:06:03]So, every all the marketing now is your yogurts and cheeses and stuff that's protein. And they stick a product.

[00:06:09]That's protein, right there. Yeah, exactly. Prime beef. Yeah. So, we can counterbalance hopefully clever marketing and a bit of only Yeah. Change what people's perception of a steak is.

[00:06:19]Oh, that's beef. That's protein. And it is that simple sometimes that kind of marketing. Well, then you've heard me, Stephen, in the show during during the summer. If your grandmother wouldn't recognize it what's on your plate, you probably shouldn't be eating it. And if it's got a a long list of ingredients on a label or it's ultra-processed foods, everyone now is waking up to the fact that there's a lot of rubbish on on the supermarket shelves that really isn't good for your health.

[00:06:45]And we're back to good old protein, the milk, the cheeses, all the stuff that that we're producing here at at the Towers farm. Well, thanks for inviting us along.

[00:06:54]We've been more than welcome to have a good look around, really.

[00:06:57]I really appreciate your time and some fine-looking animals. Thank you very much.

[00:07:02]We we we try and look after them well and yeah, they look after us. You've done a job. I do.

[00:07:08]So, how do you think prices are fairing up? What is going to happen in the beef market? What's going to happen with the grain market? Like I said before, we need the price to go up quite a bit.

[00:07:17]I mean, this is obviously barley, but wheat needs to go up a bit more.

[00:07:21]Anyway, over to Neil in Scotland, let's see how he's getting on up there. Have a bit of a crop update. Hello, it's Neil White here from Greenknowe Farm.

[00:07:29]I'm located in the southeast of Scotland, just down tucked in the southeast corner, just over the border at Coldstream. The right side of the border, I would claim, in sunny Scotland.

[00:07:41]So, yeah, just doing a little bit of an update.

[00:07:44]The weather, well, you know, we've come out of It wasn't a particularly wet winter, but just lots of showers. Going was quite wet at the start of sowing, and then it sort of we we seem to move into this drier, windier spell of weather.

[00:07:59]So, everything went like a kind of creme brulee, I was saying, you know, very crispy, dry on the top, but moist underneath, which a little bit of a challenge. I direct drill everything. I went to land spring. And so, yeah, getting a nice seed bed was a challenge, but things seem to have responded really well. So, the winter the winter barley winter barley is is looking well. I craft winter barley that goes to Simpson's for malting. It's brewed. And so, yeah, that's that's been looking well. It's quite short and seems to be going accelerating through the stages quite quickly. Now, we've moved into this drier spell. We're still in a cold spell. We're getting frost at night. And I don't really think that's the winter barley. Although, it is looking quite green and strong. Um, the oilseed rape oilseed rape I have higher risk resort I higher risk oilseed rape. And it's been looking really well.

[00:08:53]I've I've taken a video in one of the fields. It's quite representative. I've one field with a patch that's not as good as that, but it has been looking really strong and good. Um, right from the outset. So, we're have high hopes for that. Did amazingly well last year. Biggest crops of rape we've ever cut. So, I don't know whether it's going to manage to do that, but it's certainly looking as well as it did last year. We'll just have to see if we can get as much sunshine as last year cuz that's what built the yields. Then moving into spring, the spring beans, spring beans they went in the 18th of March. They were direct drilled in. And that that field came up really nicely.

[00:09:31]They've they've >> So, we've got we've just got a fully a feed spray that goes on and then as late as I can travel in them without damaging them we put a fungicide on and then that's all they get. So, one final addition that I I was almost almost forgot to mention was I have changed my drill. I haven't changed brands. Although it has changed country.

[00:09:56]I have a Missouri strip till drill which I've had I've had this is this will be my third one. I've had them since around 2015-16.

[00:10:07]I started with them and just it seems to be the right drill for my ground and and my expectations. So, yeah, well they've moved production across to Poland which caused a bit of a delay in supply and we were a bit worried of how we were going to keep that carried on and so I decided to sort of be a bit proactive. So, contacted them myself and spoke to the sales guys over there and Vojtech came across here actually and had a visit. I organized a a kind of group of of Missouri users in this area and we had a really good chat and he was reassuring.

[00:10:41]Offered us a factory trip and well, if you get offered a factory trip nowadays, I think you have to just take it, don't you? Cuz there's not so many going about. So, yeah, we went across to Poland. Just as just there was all actually only three of us could go at the time and uh it was very very interesting. If you get a chance to go on that sort of trip, it's always interesting. But yeah, just to go to Poland, my first time in Poland and just to see the country that's you know, there's a lot of investment. There's uh a lot of grants from the EU and you know, and a really impressive production line and factory there and yeah, just just pushing everything on as hard as they can. Loads of drills being sold on grants and loads into different countries around Europe.

[00:11:27]Ukraine, met some dealers from Ukraine there and they just bought the guy had just bought 10 6-m drills. So, you know, a big order there and yeah, they're just pushing things on. So, that was that was really impressive, nice to see all that investment and that kind of reassured a couple of us and after to actually make a purchase.

[00:11:47]So, I've changed my 3-m drill just for another 3-m.

[00:11:51]I've got the kind of Well, it's not basic, but the more similar-looking drill and the other guy that was there changed his he has a 4-m changed his for the the kind of newer version with a bigger tank and some extra additions on it some extra software and some some different kind of hydraulics which looks really great, but I just kept mine a little on the cheaper side and I was quite happy with the drill as I had it. So, I wasn't nervous about having something the same but slightly updated and beefed up again. The build quality is is fantastic and yeah, some really interesting little changes that they've made which which yeah, I look forward to using it, but yeah, we'll hopefully show you just a quick once around the the drill just so you can see what it looks like and I look forward to to using that um in the coming season.

[00:12:48]But yeah, that's all for now, I think.

[00:12:50]Okay, thanks all.

[00:12:51]Thank you for that, Neil. Glad things are looking well.

[00:12:54]Now, we all know someone that's had a cancer diagnosis and someone that cares for someone that has. Now, FCAN charity we're going to go over to them now one of one of them and we're going to talk to them of how they support carers of people with cancer.

[00:13:16]My name's Tracy and I have been living alongside cancer for almost 20 years now.

[00:13:24]It's a difficult journey and it's it's not it's not one that you would want to ever go down yourself.

[00:13:33]When I say I've been living alongside cancer, I've been living as a wife.

[00:13:37]Um I wasn't the patient. My husband was the patient.

[00:13:41]And that means you're also the carer.

[00:13:44]You're also the one that's there through all the hardships, the chemotherapies, the low times, the high times. So, that can be difficult. Because when you see your loved one going through chemotherapy, and going through treatments, and you know that they're uncomfortable, and they're not feeling well, it's very, very hard to keep that control and that composure all of the time.

[00:14:11]I was the person who said to my husband, you're you've got symptoms that don't look right. They don't feel right to you. You really do need to think about going to see the doctor. Things didn't go away, and eventually, through a bit of persuasion from me, he did go to see the doctor, and thankfully, he did.

[00:14:30]Because they they diagnosed cancer in the early stages.

[00:14:34]Since then, he has had cancer twice. He has had all of the treatments, uh and those have been successful.

[00:14:42]Um but there are times when as a wife, and as a loved one, you feel you feel very alone.

[00:14:53]You feel as if no one hears you.

[00:14:56]You don't really have a voice, and people mean so well, but so many people will say, "And how how's your husband keeping?" And "How's his treatment going?"

[00:15:05]And no one ever really thinks that the loved one's suffering, too, and they're suffering a lot with this.

[00:15:11]And that's where friends come in, and family.

[00:15:15]And in some ways, you can offload, and that's that's good, to be able to talk to someone about how you feel. And in some ways you're not judged. When it's a friend or when it's part of your family, you're not judged for how you feel, and that's good.

[00:15:30]But, you know, there's also McMillan.

[00:15:33]And McMillan are there for me when I was sometimes at my lowest points.

[00:15:39]Um I could just lift the phone, and I could contact McMillan.

[00:15:43]And for you as well, um being totally selfish about it, you know, we have had many, many years now of being cancer-free and enjoying life to the full. And as I said at the start, if my husband hadn't gone to the doctor when he did, we wouldn't have had that.

[00:16:01]And that's really what it's all about.

[00:16:04]So, you know, take my advice, um seek out McMillan when you need to, and if you need to, seek out your family and friends. Uh let them be a shoulder for you to cry on if you need to. And the most important thing of all is please, please nip cancer in the bud.

[00:16:32]>> [music] >> Very important message there. We all know that it's important to go and check out if any sort of symptoms cuz early diagnosis can be one of the best things to to for a you know, successful treatment of cancer. That is all for this week, anyway. I hope you've enjoyed it. Let us know uh if you did or you didn't.

[00:16:55]Um what have you been up to this week?

[00:16:57]What are your crops looking like? What do you think's going to happen in the fertilizer market and the wheat market?

[00:17:01]Let us know in the comments. We'll be keen to hear them. Thanks for watching, and I'll see you next time.