When global markets weaken due to factors like rising US bond yields, a stronger dollar index, and currency depreciation, investors typically rotate from high-beta sectors (such as private banks and metals) to defensive sectors like IT and pharma, while maintaining short positions during monthly expiry weeks to manage volatility.
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Nifty Faces 200-Point Gap Down As Global Selloff Intensifies | Global Weakness Hits India? | ET NowAdded:
Okay, let's move on and let's talk about what our market setup is looking like today. Of course, there's a lot of global weakness. Could we actually be swept by that wave? Uh, given that yesterday we managed to close in comfortable around that 23,700 odd print for the Nifty futures. And it was IT all the way. Some of the Adani group of stocks as well were supportive. And then of course, uh, you know, some of the key themes, uh, like in L&T, NTPC, SBI, Reliance as well were giving that little bit of a support. Having said that, uh, private banks, they are the ones which are, uh, getting weak. ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, both of them had another weak session yesterday. And then metals is what's, uh, weighing heavy. Again, you know, very divided and split a sector even within that. But yes, IT has strength and, uh, can it really pull through today as well? And can it really provide any amount of support to the index along with of course the pharma names which have been holding up quite, uh, well of late. But Kunal is here in the studios. Let's ask him that. Kunal, hi, good morning. Uh, quite consolidation yesterday.
What's in store for us today given that global markets are weak? Yeah, now the concern is the global markets have started to become weak, you know, because earlier the ground for us was very fertile because, you know, the global markets was very strong and we were probably trying, uh, you know, recovering quite well over the last four to five weeks. But that I believe believe is now getting a lot more challenged and there are bigger concerns which are emerging, you know.
So I think it's not just a global markets reversing, uh, as such, but but you know, the dollar index coming back to 99 plus levels, which is a concern for, uh, you know, the currencies across the globe. In fact, we've seen many of the currencies, uh, you starting to depreciate depreciate in the last, uh, few days, three, four days specifically.
Bond yields, uh, you know, for the US, uh, indices, I think 10-year crossing 4.6 4.67 mark. That I think is a bigger concern originating. And all of this could probably put some additional pressure for, uh, our indices. And even in the last, uh, you know, two days, 3 days specifically where our markets were starting to show some signs of recovery from that 23,000 mark, I think the last half an hour, last 1 hour in the last couple of days when we saw the index trimming of gains from the intraday highs was specifically because of the rupee depreciation. You know, when rupee started to make a new low for itself, that's where you saw the markets getting a little bit more jittery. So, I think it's now more external-based reactions which our markets are facing or, you know, likely to face in the near term. And, I think that could put a lot more pressure for the index in the near term. Kunal, how do you look at we are into the monthly expiry week, actually. And, there's going to be a lot of volatility this week.
How do you look at positioning for investors in this week? Are they going to unwind this position because we're still sitting on a lot of short positions in the market? Yeah, so I my sense is they would carry forward the short positions, not majorly unwind the positions. Maybe there could be some sector churn which could happen. Because in the last, I think, you know, 4-5 weeks we've seen real real estate, metals, etc. do very well. And, when there is a sudden risk off which happens from the external circumstances, it's bound to be that the high beta sectors are the ones which, you know, we typically typically call it as rate sensitives, they are the ones which generally see profit booking. So, my sense is that over the next maybe few odd sessions, few odd weeks, you would probably expect the churning to happen within sectors. From the high beta sectors, the money is bound to flow back into the defensive names, specifically pharma, FMCG, maybe potentially even IT stocks which could see some bit of buying, especially in the larger cap names. So, I would believe that that could be how the money would be rotated back again into various sectors.
Yeah, I was just looking at IT's performance.
We'll analyze that in greater detail.
But, Kunal, what about the stock strategies for the day? So, two sell calls over here. Actually, the first one is on the PSU banking name, Bank of India is something which looks negative on the short-term charts. In fact, uh many of the PSU banking names are on the verge of breaking the previous swing lows. Bank of India is one of them.
Would look at a target of 134 on a short-term basis. Stop loss to be kept at 141. The second would be a buy sell on InterGlobe Aviation. That's also another chart which has shown signs of weakness consistently. It's struggling to cross as well as sustain above its 50-day moving average on the daily time frame. So, that's a concern for the stock in the near term.
Would look at a target of 4,140 on the downside. Stop loss to be kept at 4260.
Okay, let's take a very quick break. I just want to bring up the gift nifty as well and tell you where it's currently at. The implied open indicating sharply lower start for us. 192 points in the red as we speak right now. We'll take a break, be right back and get you all the stocks that you need to keep on your radar this morning.
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