Bitcoin: This'll Be Brutal (for EVERYONE)

Added: 2026-06-05

[00:00:00]Bitcoin's breaking down. It's at key structural support, $71,000, the halfway point of the bull market.

[00:00:07]We've started a new day, a new week, and a new month. All are in the red. And should this level break, very high chance that the $60,000 low is going to be taken out. Now, my view on the channel has of course been that we are in a bare market at the moment. There is some signs of a transition, but first there's going to be lower prices. I've maintained that view since October, and it's only increased as more of the confirmation signals have continued to mount. Like early in November at $18,000, we broke down from a double top and then continued to fall from that. So, there is nothing that has changed on the macro front here. All that is happening right now is that we're potentially seeing more signs that the bare market is going to continue. But I've got a few I guess signs for those that have got a clear ahead when it comes to their investing that we could be getting closer to that transitional phase from the bare market to a bull market for Bitcoin. But first, make sure you hit the like button, subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. Hopefully, I can give you some data that you can take away for yourself and make your own decisions with your money and not get caught up in an echo chamber of bull only or bear only. Those guys always lose money because they don't have any risk management. Risk is to the downside and also to the upside.

[00:01:35]Okay, so without further ado, let's keep going with the the analysis. Now 71,000's been a very very key level.

[00:01:44]Breaking of this and a monthly close under it as we've seen from prior bare markets typically results in further downside. At least the last three bare markets 100% of the time we've seen further downside taking out the low of the month that broke the 50% level. So th those numbers and where does this thing ultimately end up? Nobody knows.

[00:02:07]But we do our best to have a an estimated educated guess. And at the moment, I'm looking between 43,000 and 58,000 because of the uh where the market's fallen in the past. So, we've seen the fib levels in the past prior cycles. Bare market top, well, bull market top, bare market begins, breakdown, 50% level. I'll take this out because this is a little bit confusing for some. And then you get the breakdown of the 50%, the halfway point, last cycle, 36K. the market continues to fall further. Some really slow, long, boring periods and then you get into the final low. Now, all of that period that occurred from June to January 23 happened between 1 point uh sorry.125 and 0.25. So, that was the price target low for last cycle and the market got there. Cycle before that, same fibs occurred.125.25 25 and we had the low forming in that phase rallies and then the next cycle begins cycle before that in 201 peak of 2013 the correction in 2014 same deal fell into the.125 to 0.25 25. But note on each of the bare markets that level got a little bit higher. First time round it was closer to the 125. The next cycle it was less not you know not as close. So it didn't touch it that time.

[00:03:37]And then in 2022 we also got into the zone but basically halfway through it.

[00:03:42]So that's why I'm giving it a little bit more of breathing room this cycle and looking between the 0.25 25 to 38. Now, there's going to be other signs that I think will will form to let us know, well, is it is it got does it have further to go or have we find found the final low? Get my words out here. Uh, and I think that's going to come over the second half of 2026. And we're still looking for a low sometime around quarter 3, maybe extends into the old meme of October 2026. But we're going to watch quarter 3 based on my timing charts of Micro Strategy, Ethereum, and XRP. Typically, those will base uh after their highs. Micro Strategy being around four years, which comes due later in 2026. Ethereum about 13 months from the top. It topped in August of 202.

[00:04:40]We can take a quick look at ETH because it would also be getting hit a little here. There is the top August 2025. 12 months out takes us to August 2026.

[00:04:48]Sometimes it does 123 and then also XRP.

[00:04:51]Now why do these matter? How do they all come together? I just see it as liquidity coming into cryptocurrencies and of course Bitcoin as well. And those are the major ones that basically retail like to trade in. Therefore, we might begin to see a low at that time.

[00:05:08]Therefore, we might see the low for Bitcoin as well. The other piece to Bitcoin is, of course, USDT dominance.

[00:05:15]We have seen a top for this cycle at the moment, correction, and it's starting to bounce back. Is this the final low? We don't know yet. There's no confirmation.

[00:05:26]I can't confirm or uh deny that yet. No one can because there has not been the confirming factor. What we can say though is that it is in a strong bull market. USDT dominance is still in a strong bull market and it's basically repeated the same cycle that it has done well in the last bare market. It found a higher low and then broke out. So there's the higher low and this was after the all-time high peaks of 2021.

[00:05:57]There was two of them 65,000 69,000 April and November broke out um higher low formed as well on the short term. See it just in here and then it broke higher. Same deal there. Broke higher, tested the highs, broke higher, tested the highs, pulled back, broke higher last cycle, pulled back, broke higher. So we're somewhere I think in this range now with the USDT dominance.

[00:06:25]Note that last cycle didn't hit the prior high. It's marginal. Maybe this time it does because they're printing more USDT or maybe that means there's more money floating around there uh at the moment. That that's staying in crypto. We'll see. But even if this rallies up to about 9% and doesn't go any further, gets a wick, falls, puts in a lower high. No, right there. Then that could be another strong argument that we're getting closer to the low.

[00:06:53]Remember I did say I was going to give you some hopeopium for the video. Other piece of opium actually sale is on now.

[00:06:59]TIA pro lifetime discount links in the top of the video description. It's how we navigate our portfolios in crypto, stocks, commodities, and real estate at these peak stages of the 18-ear cycle.

[00:07:10]So what we're going to do next, I discuss those on a weekly basis with our members and talk about the overall uh markets and how people are also needing to navigate through them. back to Bitcoin. That to me is a pretty good sign that we would be getting into a top for USDT dominance, which would potentially mean a low for Bitcoin. So, you can see in terms of the price chart, it's not that far off. Now, take a swing back to Bitcoin and have a look at the crypto fear and greed index. The other indicator that I've been watching and sharing with you guys is a uh basically a pullback on USD on the crypto fear and greed index that runs into a higher low like it did last cycle. So I look at the crypto fear and greed index compared to here. That's the bottom of 2022. You've got the extreme fear, breakout, pullback, lower prices on the pullback, lower prices, but a higher low for the sentiment. Here is the low. There is low. Extreme fear, singledigit extreme fear, breakout uh breakout on the uh sentiment pullback. And at the moment, we're pulling back on the price. So, I'll get to the price in a sec. But this one here is also another to from from what I've seen over the prior cycle, a really good indicator that the market is getting ready for this base and the transition from a low to another move higher. Now, I don't know if this is going to occur. That's what I want to keep putting in as a preface to all of this data that there is no guarantees that Bitcoin is going to run to a new high, but it's not out of the question.

[00:08:59]It could still get there. We still run to a new alltime high 130 150k possibly still in still still there, right? But at the time we're going to obviously hear that Bitcoin can go to 200 300 $500,000 and all this sort of BS, right?

[00:09:13]We're not there yet. Let's get to a low point in this in the Bitcoin price first. So two major ones there. One on the USDT, which is the liquidity. The other is on the sentiment. And to back those up, we've also got Google Trends.

[00:09:26]You've got the sentiment, very, very low levels. That's usually the case around lows and it uh the search volume for Bitcoin generally only ticks up when there is a very big move down on price because people are searching what about my Bitcoin and you know do I need to sell Bitcoin? Is Bitcoin dead? All that sort of stuff that comes up in the search volume for for Bitcoin. We've seen it over every single cycle. You're in a bare market. The spikes in search volume come from corrections in the market. November 2024 in a bull market, you see spikes in search volume um during those breakout periods, breakouts, search volume high on breakouts equals bull market. Search volume high on breakdowns equals bare market. Now, you're still going to see search volume pick up for any uh volatile moves, but typically that's a bit of a rule of thumb that you can use for the sentiment and the search volume.

[00:10:28]The exchange volume also not really doing much. The lifeblood hasn't come back yet. It's still relatively dead here in the 20 billions. But I'm going to give you the hopeium on everything here because obviously prices are coming down. But the positive signs thus far is that there seems to be a base forming.

[00:10:49]Could be early signs here between 22 billion and 32 billion. But last cycle, we also saw bases form and some breakouts to the upside. Now, the the base is going to take longer than it's going to go after the low. So, at least you got the signs that you've got a bit of a base forming here, but the exchange volume will probably continue to dry up the further we go into a low and the further we run into the next cycle. And that's why with the four-year cycle that we watch the low to the low, not this all-time high havinging BS, the low to the low, that's why we can keep following that because it doesn't mean that the price has to run to an all-time high, but we could see a macro lower high form. Bitcoin could correct into this price zone of 43 to 58,000. Let's get a few more months here. you know, it comes down into that and then it could rally up pretty hard, hit your 112s and fade out again. So, somewhere in those tops there in 100 120K region. That would still be a 4-year cycle because you're measuring low to the next low. And if this low is in 2026, the next low is going to be roughly around 2030 with a top possibly somewhere in 2027 to 2028. That's how that looks. And from what we've seen across the board with other cryptocurrencies, uh I mean I I don't like saying it because most people are basically bull only and they don't want to hear how to trade or invest longterm. They just want to buy and hold forever, which is okay, but this is just the facts of the chart. You can do with it whatever you want, right? And I think it's representative of the entire industry at this point.

[00:12:43]Ethereum this cycle barely an all-time high. You It technically is an all-time high, but it closed underneath the prior all-time highs. So, pretty pretty flat.

[00:12:56]Salana, the other big player of this cycle. Again, barely an all-time high.

[00:13:02]Closed underneath the prior all-time high on a monthly basis. The other big player, XRP, nothing was holding it back this cycle. It broke the 2018 high. That was a huge boom. Broke higher, closed back underneath the January top. So July tested it again, closed underneath, and has since failed from that point. Three massive cryptocurrencies, touching all-time highs, failing. Doge 2021 got nowhere near the prior top and then reversed from that point. So you can see the alltime high bar or the cycle top in December 24 closed back underneath the prior cycle. Now I'll I'll follow up this in other videos. What the data is suggesting is that retail and investors and money in general is just getting less and less interested in cryptocurrencies and bitcoin. That telling like talking about that online does not win me any friends.

[00:14:05]it actually loses me a lot of people because they don't want to hear it. I'm just sharing what it looks looks to be happening on these charts and if things change I'll let you know and that's why you know I I I hope you subscribe and like the content help us out on the YouTube algorithm. All right. Uh the other big player of course was ADA and I mean that just speaks for itself.

[00:14:27]Absolute loss of interest through through the cycle. Um hype is an interesting one. We'll have a look at that in future videos. sets obviously broken higher last month, run to new highs. Great stuff. Excellent looking trade. But the the main thing we're focused on here is what's happening overall in Bitcoin and then cryptocurrencies and basically the the health of the market at this stage.

[00:14:50]Bitcoin against the stock market is obviously on in a downtrend here. So, it's not really giving any sort of vibes that it wants to play catchup with the AI play and the tech sector play and the semiconductor play that's happening in the stock market. This is looking very very weak against the S&P 500 actually closed at 9.7 and the dump in February was at 9.74.

[00:15:16]So, it actually closed slightly underneath putting in the lowest monthly closing price in this entire bare market so far. And remember, it topped out earlier than the Bitcoin USD chart. So, stock market was looking stronger earlier on. Bitcoin against the NASDAQ clearly a downtrend last month. Absolute huge loss. 13% loss against the NASDAQ.

[00:15:40]And so far, uh, breaking underneath prior support levels. So, not a great sign longterm here for for Bitcoin.

[00:15:48]Watch any sort of breakdown below the prior cycle lows. It's not going to be great for Bitcoin.

[00:15:53]Bitcoin against gold had its rally as we anticipated. That's typically what happens after several straight months down. Red, red, red, red. Like that was three, four, five, six, seven. Here's a bounce and so far it's pulling back.

[00:16:07]Bitcoin against silver also found support at the level we've been watching around 700 ounces and is pulling back.

[00:16:13]So again on the weak front here, silver and gold and uh Dow Jones obviously going to be down as well. So you can see the tops also pulling back. So in a slightly stronger position, but still underneath the 50%. So that brings me full circle to the 50% level here for Bitcoin. Broken underneath pullbacks at the moment. Now the key thing here for the buyers, this level needs to hold right here. $71,000 without question.

[00:16:41]We've got we're just at the beginning of a new month, so there's still time to go. But any weekly closes under here is really going to start to break this structure for for Bitcoin, which is most likely going to send things back under 65 and $60,000 to the ultimate lows. I think coming up in 2026, if Bitcoin can turn around, hold this level for for June and break back above the $83,000 level, that is going to be a very strong sign for the bulls. So, that's the point that I would say not happening. We've we've uh things have changed this cycle and we're beginning to see some strength earlier on and it looks like many of these other signs are not going to play out or at least maybe we'll start to see some of them uh also changing hands. As I said at the beginning of the video, the things that are changing, the transition that we can see is the sentiment. Sentiment seems to be pulling back into that higher low that's anticipated like last cycle which is a good sign going from a bare market to a bull market. See right in this the midst of things right here and the exchange volume tapering out but not really coming back uh just yet. Now a couple of other indicators that the market likes to look at and that is the RSI. So we've just seen lower highs and lower lows on the RSI. There was a breakout in May which has now pulled back and sitting pretty much at its um uh average moving average line here. So it looks like it's on the verge of breaking down again back below the prior highs and should that get down back towards 30 35 possibly looking for a higher low there to start forming that base. You can check out last cycle. You got lower prices, but the RSI began to put in higher lows and that started to stem after June. So June got the lowest low point for the RSI. Prices kept going lower over the next 3, four, five months and then the RSI picked up because you're seeing less of a drop in price. I think that is what's happening with Bitcoin at this, you know, at this current rate. So even if we saw the RSI continue to fall, probably going to start to form a pattern like this, which takes that 3, four, five months, which then lines us up to the second half of 2026. So it's all basically coming full circle. The average true range also pulling back, meaning that we're seeing uh less volatility in the bars themselves. A normal sign that we're getting closer to the low. You can see it happen last cycle. We can see it happen the cycle before that. less interest that's typical and the the ETF flows also they have continued to basically sell off through this period but we are in a bare market so we'll be looking for some sort of news failure here and a turning point for uh the ETFs the next indicator 200 day moving average typical of a bare market we've seen the prices rally into the 200 day moving average and now get rejected same thing happened in 2022 2.

[00:19:52]And remember, we talked about this leading into the rally to the 200 day.

[00:19:56]Had to do a lot of work to get there, but people didn't want to believe it at the time. They did not want to believe that Bitcoin could rally into it and then fail. And it's done exactly that at this stage. Uh last cycle did the same thing. Couple of tests once and twice, held its ground and then failed. and then also in 2014 got to the line, held for a few weeks and then failed again, failed again and ran to the new lows.

[00:20:22]So, lots of signs that this is still the bare market, but we're getting much much later in the piece. So those who basically skip town at the moment probably going to miss out on some of those cycle lows I think coming in the second half which potentially also line up with the S&P 500 getting to this grinding high or at least a trading range while the market catches up and digests the moves of AI and semiconductors over the last two months.

[00:20:50]And from from that point I think we could see a final push higher. whether it goes to all-time highs, we'll obviously continue to cover that here.

[00:20:58]We should see some signs of strength that comes back and we'll um you know be able to to track that. But in regards to the stock market, I think even if there is a slowdown or a pause here after those nine weeks straight up, uh I think we'll probably still get some good highs coming into 2026, maybe even early 2027.

[00:21:16]And that's what could ultimately get Bitcoin to to ride higher even though it has been lagging the S&P 500 over these last several months since the top in October. Hit the like, subscribe to the channel, check out the sale on TIA Pro.

[00:21:32]Limited time left on that lifetime discount. We'll help you navigate the cycle over there. And I'll see you back at the next video looking at traditional finance, looking at stock markets, commodities, and the economy. All right, guys. Cheers and peace out.