Why US Debt Doesn't Matter (How Retail Saved the Market)

追加: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Hey Saki, did you whiteboard this already, but is there implication here of debt being higher than GDP? What's the drop potential here? I mean, honestly, the truth is is that debt to GDP ratio used to be something that people really looked at as far as like a rating for the for the government sustainability, but again, I hate to say this, but the truth is is that unlike other countries, we have a money printer and we print our own money and we print money in our you know, and we borrow in our own currency that we control. So, as much as as much as you don't like debt to GDP, it's not like we're going to default because nobody expects to be paid back, right? This isn't money cuz we have this thing where we think of money and and budgets and and and debt the way that we look at our own household debt and and and budgeting. And the government doesn't do that. Nobody really thinks the US is ever going to pay them back.

[00:00:47]The world owes 310 trillion, so nobody's ever paying anybody back. But I again, world reserve currency, petrodollar, and military. As long as those three things are good, the US could have a 200 GDP.

[00:00:55]It It doesn't matter right now because nobody else has anywhere else to put their money where they see the type of growth and stuff like that. That's going to change eventually, but it yes, debt to GDP ratio is a big deal when you're looking at it from a from a from like a a standpoint of like health of a of a of a you know, but again, it's not that debt to GDP GDP debt to GDP ratio is something you should be ignoring, but if you're looking at it as hey, we have more debt to GDP, therefore this is the beginning of the end and this is the collapse, you're looking at debt the way we would at a household. And and that's fine because that's the only experience we have. That's the only like understanding we have, but when you look at a global like marketplace, it doesn't they don't look at debt the same cuz nobody actually expects to get paid back, right? It's more of a handshake and a back room and a hey, listen, we owe you money. We're That doesn't mean that we're going to get money back from you, but we're going to get some kind of other support from you. Military support, trade deal support, financial support, you know, votes at the UN. It's It's a It's a It's a handshake and a back pat and that's what it is. It's not what you think of with, you know, like who's going to let's say let's say we owe money to Japan, right? The biggest owner of our debt is Japan. What if we what if what if we can't pay it back?

[00:02:10]Not that we're that's a scenario, but what if we can't pay it back? What's Japan going to do? You know what I mean?

[00:02:14]They're just going to have to hang on to the debt. It's not like they're going to be able to come like knock on the door and be like, "Yo, give me my [ __ ] money." You know what I mean? I mean sure they could sell their their their their debt their US debt on the market, but then they have no bargaining chip on the on the global stage. So, it's a [ __ ] up situation. So, again I'm I'm not you know this isn't a excuse for for overspending and and and you know just oh [ __ ] it don't worry about it. But you got to think about it this way. It's like, "Okay, well when we were $10 trillion in debt we were like, okay we're going to collapse." Then $12 trillion, then $15 trillion, then $20 trillion. And it's like, "Okay, well we're definitely going to collapse."

[00:02:47]Like the stock market, right? Everyone keeps seeing the stock market go up there's no way it can keep going up.

[00:02:51]It's overbought. It's oversold. Look at that chart. It's insane. This is going to collapse any day. It's going to collapse any day. But if there's more if if people continue to want to be invested in the market cuz there's no other better option, then it's going to keep going up, right? If the United States and their economy and their military and their and their and their whatever is the best, you know, investable most investable country in the world, even if they're in debt, you still just put money into it cuz it's the best option, right? It's the same similar type of scenario. Difference is the United United States is is printing its money, you're not. But again again you have to you have to pull your brain out and and stop looking at it as as a way of like this is my understanding because this is my experience. These are two totally different things. These are two totally different things. It's like you going on a vacation to the Bahamas versus, you know, Jeff Bezos going. Yes, you're both going to the Bahamas. You're both going on a vacation. But you guys both see that vacation entirely different. It is two different scenarios. You're going looking for a hotel that's in a budget that has amenities. You're looking for, you know, discounts on packages. You're looking at the time crunch, how many days you got, doing this. This dude literally doesn't even book it. He just tells his assistant, "I'm going, I don't know, a week to a month. Just find me something that's secluded, and you know my preferences." The [ __ ] could rent out a an entire island in the Bahamas, and not even see it in his [ __ ] net worth. So, yes, it's the same thing, but two different experiences. So, when you look at debt from the US versus debt at your house, these are two different experiences.

[00:04:18]Right? The You would think because the more debt you have, the less likely you are to have people or banks or institutions lend you money, or at much higher interest rates. But, you don't have a military. You don't have a money printer. You don't have others households and other banks holding your money. It's a different scenario.

[00:04:34]Serious question, what incentive does eBay have to accept and entertain the GameStop buyout? $10 billion company trying to buy a $50 billion company.

[00:04:40]Doesn't make sense. eBay is just going fine. Meanwhile, GameStop is a dying pawn shop surviving on dilution, interest, or treasuries.

[00:04:45]It's And I think it's just a it's just a a marketing stunt. Because I mean, eBay could do it if they if they have, you know, certain, you know, rights to it because But, the shareholders of eBay are most likely not going to do it cuz even at a 20% premium right now, it's like, "What is What What's GameStop's plan for it?" Sure, there's You You could You could make a scenario where it's an online marketplace and things like this, but it's like, you know, I don't know enough about this transaction and what what the what the understanding is. I don't see it as a good deal for eBay shareholders. I don't see it as anything that makes sense other than Ryan Cohen probably just trying to get his his bonus incentives to get GameStop to a $100 billion company. Um you know, I I think I mean, they could get the money by just diluting and diluting and diluting like they already have. But, um uh in my opinion, it's more about a a a a thing to get the the share value up to either dilute again or to just bring the value up so that they can, you know, he can hit his incentives. But, um the interesting thing is is that the Pokémon card market is still going up. It's still It hasn't slowed down. So, again, you know, it This isn't, you know, there is value in that marketplace, but for how long? You know, when does it when does it correct?

[00:05:53]You know, this reminds me of the baseball card market of the '90s.

[00:05:57]Obviously, a little bit different because you have new new new things added into it, but it reminds me of that. And it's just a it's just I mean in in the Pokémon card market has sucked away the value and the and from the sneaker market, from the Rolex market.

[00:06:11]Like people that were generally, you know, looking at other markets for value and for buying and selling, they're they're putting it in the in Pokémon. I mean, there was a report that came out today that there's a What was it? Pokémon something that that that is selling out. It's not even a card. It's It's It's like something edible or something like that. Yeah, so it's it's it's it's being in Oh, yeah, Pokémon Pop-Tarts.

[00:06:31]Pokémon Pop-Tarts are being scalped right now. And the market just keeps going up because there's a frenzy right now.

[00:06:37]This we are in a a a gambling, you know, frenzy right now. Everybody is trying to make money because their their outlook is is either bleak or it's it's just it's just the adrenaline or it's addiction, but everybody is doing it. I mean, I was looking at the the the numbers in the report this morning, okay?

[00:06:58]Let me give you an example. Remember how I always say that and people get the [ __ ] on me for this and that's fine.

[00:07:03]It's my opinion, but retail traders are a major factor now. Retail traders, us, we are we are literally a force to be reckoned in this market. And that's why a lot of people are like, "Why isn't there sell-offs? Why aren't there more dips?

[00:07:17]Why aren't there more, you know, whatever?" Because why are large firms going to sell their positions? Like, "Oh, it's manipulated. All these firms are pumping the market up to use us as exit liquidity so they can dump on us, wait for the big crash and buy it up pennies on the dollar." No, every Do you want to see a crazy thing? Look at this, okay? Look at this. You You just got to stop thinking about what you think makes sense for a minute, okay?

[00:07:38]Because you you you got to drown out the noise. You just have to look and see the numbers, okay? The numbers are where it's at. You follow the [ __ ] money. I want you to see something. If this was 15 years ago, the Iran, you know, conflict and the sell-off would have been much deeper and it would have been much wider, okay? It would have been lasted longer. But this, ladies and gentlemen, is an is something you need to see.

[00:07:59]It's manipulation. The fastest market recovery ever. How many days it took to recover a more than 10% loss in the S&P 500. The dot-com crash, 7 years. The the [ __ ] the 2008 global financial crisis, right? 6 years. The EU debt crisis, 99 days. China devaluing, the hiking cycle in 2008 which wiped out my AMD position, China trade war, COVID 103 days, 2022 2023 hiking cycle, tariff tantrum that was last year. It took 11 days. I've been streaming through every single one of these. 1 2 3 4 5 6 of these now. 11 days. Now, somebody out there is going to go, "Oh, well, that's just manipulation. That's just insiders.

[00:08:42]That's just Trump giving his buddies."

[00:08:44]There's not some group of [ __ ] billionaires out there being like, "Hmm, let's pump the market today. Hmm."

[00:08:48]Everybody's making money. And this is the reason that this didn't last longer is because big firms aren't dumping big positions like they were before because they're not trying to get out of the way. And if you think I'm wrong, let me tell you this number right here. This is This is from last year now, all right?

[00:09:04]Retail, which is us, the share of daily trading in US stocks by retail has more than doubled in the past 15 years to 36%.

[00:09:16]That is now larger than that that that share of big banks or hedge funds.

[00:09:21]Retail has now become market price setters. Now, again, it's not there's a there's a lot of like, you know, scattered, you know, you know, what who's doing what what group and who's looking at what, but that's wild. Last year US retail trading topped 5 trillion dollars. That's that's more than the pandemic high when everybody was at home bored with money. And you'd say, "Well, they've got to be wiped out by now. They got to be losing money." It doesn't have to be one person with 10 billion dollars, but 10 million people with a hundred bucks or a thousand dollars changes the game. Now, it doesn't mean that, "Oh my god, you know, retail is running the market." No, but it is a significant portion of the market.