Venezuela faces significant challenges during its political transition, including a foreign debt of $160-180 billion (over 150% of GDP), severe infrastructure problems with only one-third of electrical capacity operational, and extreme inequality (60.3% Gini coefficient, making it the second most unequal nation globally). The US is implementing a three-step plan for stabilization, economic recovery, and political transition, while international companies like Chevron and Exxon are cautiously assessing investment opportunities. Despite some economic improvements (poverty rate dropping from 92.9% to 68.5%), Venezuela's oil-dependent economy remains vulnerable, and the country is unlikely to become a digital nomad hub like Medellín due to its high cost of living, extreme wealth concentration, and complex political dynamics.
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🇻🇪 Livestream: Trump's honeymoon over? Power outages incoming? Green Zone occupation?Added:
Hello and welcome to a new episode of Peninsula Insider live stream that is not live. Still waiting for recommendation for another day and today is May 10 of 2026 and yeah we are still on this transition period in Venezuela and a lot to discuss today. So let's start with the news and as always and the first that we have to discuss is that the US Treasury Department the FAC the sanctions uh the is um the sanctions issuing a new license for government especially for Pedesa state owned oil company in order to giving the green light in order to restructure the depth of the of the company and the sovereign bonds overall.
After this news, the Venezuelan bonds rallied on the open market. And this, you know, something that I've been following and nailing consistently is follow the bond market in Venezuela. You know we know the saying that the dumb money is on stocks and the smart money is on bonds. So basically if you see the price action of the investment and bonds h there is a strong correlation between such prices and the actions happening within the country and something that we have to remember that Venezuela has a foreign debt. uh the total amount this the outstanding amount is between 160 and 180 billion of US dollars that's over 150% depth to GDP ratio now and this is important because we need to build trust yet again for the financial system and the economy overall h in order to you know uh receive even more foreign direct investment.
And regard the bonds, uh the bonds have been a lot there is a plethora of bonds by the way of Venezuelan sovereign bonds and the Pereesa issued bonds that are called the global 2020, global 2026, whatever. And even we have some bonds that were issued on 1987, sovereign bonds, uh even before the Chavis era.
And you know debts have to be settled and in order to access such um you know the financial systems overall again and this is an important metric and in order to do so of course you need to restructure today. Also, we have to be fair with this is that the sanctions that affected Venezuela since 2015 were mostly against Venezuelan individuals of the government, roughly 200 people and their families. However, on 20 2017 during the Trump administration, the first Trump administration erh Venezuela, different entities tied to the Venezuelan government were sanctioned including PESA and the financial system and that did not allow to keep making the payments for in order to serve such debt.
Uh right now depending on the on the bond uh roughly give and take they are trading 50 cents on the dollar. Remember just a couple of years ago those bonds were trading uh 14 cents to 22 cents on the dollar. So it's a it's a big rally that we had on the past year basically uh since basically the announcement of this you know military movement that ended you know with the Janu January 3 operation.
good on that also this is very important that Venezuela since they don't don't have access to uh to the basically the lending market worldwide you know IMF uh World Bank and different institutions and the risk premium in order to lend to Venezuela is was over 12,000 points is huge a normal country just has like 100 200 less of basis points.
Peninsula was over 12,000 and right now is less than 6,000. So the risk premium still way high uh for the Venez significantly and this is something to keep an eye on.
Other news that we got this week is the deputy secretary, the deputy state secretary Christopher Landau that he is very savvy on Venezuela. He lived in Venezuela actually and his father was the ambassador, the US ambassador in Karakas many years ago and also even his um thesis on on college was regarding Venezuelan politics back on the day.
Anyways, he gave important remarks in order to keep you know this forward guidance on what is going on in Venezuela. He said that the economic progress goes hand inhand with the with politics and yeah we know with something that basically we have discussed constantly here on Venezuelan is that the the issue that we got the collapse the economic collapse is tied to the political crisis in Venezuela.
uh he mentioned yet again something that we we also mention here constantly is that investors want guarantees in the country. We have a dubious situation regarding politics in the country and of course that affects foreign direct investment.
Also he said that we are pushing with the United States we are pushing political reform in the country. Well the US basically according to his bosses both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio the US is in charge in Venezuela. So it's up to them to get that political reform. And lastly, he said that the the goal uh regarding in Venezuela is lead to reach the point of a political transition in the country. So well, it's very very clear.
we can review again is the the three-step plan that the US has and is remember the phase one is stabilization of the country no shenanigans no you know armed groups or whatever in in the country uh step number one step number two is the is the economic recovery we are here on that phase allegedly according to you know what state department are saying and political reconciliation that is not going well by the way if I have to be honest we are going to address that a little bit later and the step number three is the political transition basically having a free and fair election in Minnesota something that we haven't had in a while in the country in order to determine that who is going to run the country for the next I don't know six years So yeah. Okay. Now we have to go to another news. This goes with Donald Trump. You know Trump is always involved. Um, according to Reuters, he met with representatives of both Chevron and Exon Mobile on Tuesday, the White House, uh, regarding Venezuela and how they're going to proceed now with this new um, oil industry opening pro western multinationals, especially the US multinationals. And of course, the two main guys are both Chevron and Exon.
And different situations for both companies. Chevron has 100 years of continuous presence in Venezuela. They are the incumbent and the issue right now with Chevron is actually the largest producer private producer in the country roughly 300 barrels of good oil per day.
That's Chevron's quarter and they expect to expand such operations. But right now they are not using capex uh meaning erh further investments in the country. They are just keeping the opex you know the income that generate from the from the country from Venezuela in order to expand such operations. So they are not gambling. Basically they are just using the the surplus of their of their activities in Venezuela in order to increase their activities in Venezuela.
And Exon is completely different because they left in 2007. They got expropriated by the late Yu Chaveis. Basically the same people that are running the country right now.
And first they want compensation.
They Venezuela has a depth right now is roughly 12 billion US dollars with Exxon. They want to get paid but also they are very interested in investing in the country with the right guarantees that they do not have right now. They got burned already a couple of times and this according to the to the CEO Darren Goods. The first thing the positive said that the biggest challenge for a company like Exom Mobile is finding the resources and Venezuela they are there so they don't have to invest on exploration or anything like that they the commodities are there just getting you know puts on the ground starting the operations however the race is political that's one thing uh he said uh famously on on early January after the the operation of Maduro. He said that right now Venezuela is uninvestable.
However, he has been suffering his position on the country and they are doing the due diligence. They have apparently they have people you know just you know kicking the tires seeing um what's going on. But yeah, I'll say they are on board when the transition in Venezuela that remember the political crisis, the political transition has been the main driver of unstability in a country and when they have a stable political situation, they will do their thing. We are just here, you know, debating on what's going on. Okay, now let's go with Chris Wright, the Trump's er energy secretary, and he gave an interview on Fox News and it was not as positive as usually he likes to speak about Venezuela. H first the the operations right now so far so good according to their plan, the US plan.
H however he remarked that the banking system in Venezuela is a mess and it needs to be fixed and yeah a mess is might be an underell in that regard. We have covered the banking system in Venezuela uh recently a couple of times but the the energy industry the energy sector in Venezuela that's the key in order to fix and the structural issues Venezuela that's the the cornerstone of the Venezuelan economy I was saying for a while and so right now the situation is kind of muddy h most of the changes that are happening remember the issue with Venezuela is the political system and right now is been fixed on the back end but we are not seeing that much results on the front end. You know you know I'm not an IT guy that's kind of the explanation. Okay, let's go with another, you know, interesting news is that Venezuela own and rich uranium at 20% 13 kilos to be accurate and was owned by the government and it was disposed by the US government.
that uranium was retrieved basically disposed out of the country and the issue with uranium and that I'm not an expert on you know nuclear whatever but in order to have civilian uses for the uranium you need the enriched uranium at 3%.
Now if you want to you know think badly h in order to make nuclear weapons you need 90% of enrichment. This particular uranium was on 20%. So way high for civilian purposes but way low for you know naughty purposes but just in case it was disposed. Yeah. just giving the news uh was given by both the both the Venezuelan government and also by the US authorities here.
Okay. And lastly, another news that we're going to cover uh very interesting. Wingo, the Colombian airline that has daily operations in Venezuela, basically connecting Karakas with Bogotaa, the capital of Colombia, basically both capitals that they have daily flights. Now they will open a second flight between Bogota and Valencia that Valencia will is like the third most important city in in Venezuela on the western side.
and they will have three flights per week starting in July. And actually, I saw the the estimates for those flights and are actually very affordable like $100 just for one way. So, I think it's interesting the the price, you know, the price structure of those flights. Very interesting. Good news.
That means that one of the main issues that we got in in the country on the past now decade or something is the lack of international flights and we are seeing a significant expansion of such flight and yeah and Colombia is an important market for Venezuela.
Therefore, we have another new flight to you know to celebrate here. Uh for everyone watching this that is thinking about visiting Venezuela and I know there are a lot of people living in Colombia both Colombians uh Venezuelans but also internationals from the US and Europe that actually a handful of them are my clients they are already traveling to the country.
Anyways, now uh we're going to cover uh the topics of the week and the first one, this is very important, is that uh the lights will be out in Venezuela.
And one of the main issues that we have in the country is the electrical grid has been destroyed on the past 18 years.
Basically since 2008 we have consistent blackouts in different major cities in the country and and that happened you know lack of maintenance uh corruption mismanagement has been off and the worst time on the trigger was 2019 but we had a huge blackout in Venezuela and some people are still traumatized for such event and that's not for less.
Okay. The Pan government issued an a statement saying that we have a demand a pe a 9year peak on demand of 15,000 megawws used to be roughly 13 on the past couple of years. Remember that we got a lot of migration, immigration, people left the country roughly 9 million and also a lot of companies have been I don't know have been closed or expelled out of the country and also we got h also we got the issue of the oil the oil industry that collapsed used to produce 3 million barrels of crude oil per day and right now is no 1.2 1.3 million according to the last estimate.
So less oil production less so the demand has shr has shrunk but now with this revival of the Van economy h that particular demand has increased. Now the issue is that the installed capacity it has a potential supply of over 30,000 megaww but uh it's only like a third is operational and that's the reason why we have issues with the with the electrical grid a lot of blackouts in different major cities and the government just you know uh blow the blow the whistle on that regard and they are playing in the sanctions and the economic demand and economic recovery and yeah whatever you know the political mumbo jumbo yeah is it's mostly about the corruption in the in the in the mismanagement so let's let let's let's be fair with this anyways you know how politics is now how this will affect the country. We need h first how we're going to fix it.
uh Jos and I mentioned this here on the platform a couple of times that both General Electric and CMS are doing the due diligence in order to fix the power grid in the country mostly focusing on the goodie dam that particular dam produces like two of the electricity in the country but has a severe issues you know lack of maintenance and its capacity is working just a third of their capacity and they are yet again doing the due diligence. However, according to Bloomberg, they they are meeting with the with the representatives of the country and they got a budget in order to fix it of roughly 15 billion US and it's going to take of course a couple of years.
However, the problem according to Bloomberg is that they want payment guarantees and the Venezuelan government is not giving such guarantees. Remember that the Venezuelan government uh they have a reputational risk since you know they are one of the worst governance in human history. they usually are are poised to default on their obligations that happens regularly and now that's the economy that we have that in order to fix the electrical grid uh these companies both GM and CMS need guarantees and also Mitsubichi apparently but who's going to pay who's going to pay the bill and that's the issue with that we have right now. Of course, there is a lot of interest right now on fixing such electrical grid. However, h so is you know it's semantics who who's going to pay when it's going to when they are going to get paid and how the structure is going to work right now since we are on a political transition and an economic transition too. So that's the issue that we have right now. But uh the main issue is that we might have blackouts on major cities on the upcoming months and this is something that you have to be prepared. Other subject that we have to discuss today and this is very important is that the honeymoon between Trump and the Venezuelan people might be over. Here's what happens. Um since you know Trump and the Trump administration took over of the politics in Venezuela after you know the military operation.
Right now [clears throat] the medicine people remember that most the overwhelming majority of the people are upset due to the draconian economic situation the political situation uh you know a worldless currency terrible economic dynamic 80% of GDP collapse infrastructure collapse 9 million migrants and also the the political actions of the government when was Maduro uh basically committing state abuse and repressions, arbitrary detentions and political prisoners and all of that.
Yes. So basically a terrible governance and a terrible rule of law and the people are upset. The problem is right now is and of course that is not Trump's fault by any means. However, Trump is taking, you know, is taking credit that right now he controls Venezuela and he controls the future of Venezuela and he is selling the outcome as a success compared to the issues with Iran or the the war in Ukraine and whatever is a quote unquote su success case regarding geopolitics and military conflicts.
and he said himself that the the war in Venezuela only took 48 minutes. So basically praising himself that he's a military genius and conqueror whatever.
The problem is that and I and we know he um in Venezuela that when Trump talks about anything he is talking to his US border space perfectly understand however he mentions a lot Venezuela on his public addresses and Venezuelans have they they have their eye glued every time that Trump talks about Venezuela that despite the fact that he is not he's not meant to mention Venezuela in order to please the the Venezuelan people the is the US people that is referring and the and the press in the US or whatever but Venezuelans listen very closely every time that and anyone from the Trump administration speaks about Venezuela especially Trump himself and Trump something that he has been done on the past several weeks is praising the current Venezuelan government. Remember that the interim authorities are the same people of the Madurus government and the overwhelming majority of the Venezuelan people the spices the the the current government including Maduro's government due to all of the reasons hyperinflation 80% of GDP collapse terrible economics infrastructure migration and political stability and also of course the the random and arbit arbitrary rule of law of Venezuela that has affected a lot of people. And on the worst moment after the the 2024 electoral crisis, what happened is that a lot of people got detained, you know, were political prisoners. Some people died actually on those days. And since Trump arrived, you know, arrived quote unquote in ME on January, they have released the the new government, the well same government of Maduro without Maduro. They have released uh over half of the political prisoners.
Good on that.
However, the problem is that there are still roughly 100 people 500 people detained on political prisoners in Venezuela according to the people who advers the government but the government says that they are not political prisons whatever but the let's say the credibility of the government is pretty pretty much not existent now something that happens that shock the people and was the Astro that broke the camel's back was the the murder of Victor Kero. He is a Venezuelan middle class gentleman. Uh he's on his late 40s I believe and he was just an ordinary citizen.
He was detained on January of 2025.
What happened is he was detained on dubious charges mostly due to political persecution but it happened randomly and arbitrarily like most of the actions of the government under Maduro remember was early last year.
But the biggest thing is that he was detained and their Nexon king their their families their close relative members they don't know what happened with him including the most vocal on that is the mother of this gentleman Victor Kero and he never got any news about him when he got first where he was detained they never got this this information. Apparently, he was on the El Rodeo prison that is on famous is very infamous regarding detaining and not only detaining but keeping on draconian and medieval conditions their prisoners mostly political prisoners.
So the mother of this gentleman basically spent year a year and a half going to each major prison in managed by the government and she never got an answer. She never she didn't even knew that he was alive.
Sadly this week we learned that Victor Victor Kero was deceased. He according to the Venezuelan government he died on 10 months ago and the mother never got uh the news of that of of the passing of Victor Kero.
And not only that, when an amnesty law was approved just this year, just a couple of months ago, h by the the court, the court system managed by the by the current international authorities, the his particular abstension by I'm sorry, his amnesty was denied being dead, being deceased.
And first this particular gentleman doesn't have to be you know uh be detained because apparently he didn't do anything right. He was arrested on bous charges then captive and allegedly tortured according to the forensics they are doing right now something with the forensics. I'm not an expert on that regard but the main point and I mentioned this case because has shocked everyone in Venezuela. Erh remember the people are already upset for many reasons. The economics, the the terrible governance, the lack of rule of law and yada yada yada yada yada. So people are really upset, infurious.
And this this event, the death of the Victor was the last straw that broke the captain's back. So people are furious right now and even some former collabor some former supporters of the the Venezuelan government that are you know there are not that many right now and I mean that should the word if you're watching this from the states this will be the equivalent of the death of Charlie Kirk or the death of Arena Sustra forget the the Ukrainian women woman in Charlotte uh you know it's a very sad disease and this particular week Trump himself remember we have discussed this on previous weeks Trump is very popular in Venezuela and Venezuelans are very grateful on what he's doing in the country however he was he went from being 92% % popular and support among 77 people and just last week we got a reading of 47%. So he lost half of his popularity and the reason why is because he keeps praising the current government and Venezuelan people know that it's politics and I don't know why he's doing that. He's doing it for some political reasons. Okay. But the last straw that brought the comments the camels back was that he said that the Venezuelan people are dancing in the streets. And that was he said it just a couple of days before the death of Victor Ker and people are not dancing in the streets. They are furious and upset and we have reached another level of political tension on that regard. people are very upset against their their own government for very obvious illegitimate reasons.
So Trump is not addressing that. He's not addressing the communications for the Venezuelan people. And you might say that the Venezuelan people I mean Trump is just only two to please their political base in the United States.
That's perfectly understandable.
However, he said he owns that he is in control of Venezuela and is control of the oil industry. That is completely true.
But on this department, people are fierce and so Trump is basically making a lot of unfortunate remarks about Venezuela and Venezuelans are being upset. You know, they are getting the TDS, the Trump derangement syndrome for very clumsy communication about Venezuela from the Trump administration, especially Trump himself. And lastly, the new head of mission, the new basically ambassador of the United States in Venezuela, John Barrett, the same day, just hours after the news of the death of Victor Kero, the he posted that, oh, how well we are working with the current government and people went after the new ambassador saying, dude, shut the up or whatever. They [snorts] are furious.
I mean John Barrett the the ambassador had to you know close his Twitter account or something like that. I mean that did not happen but Reneans were furious about it. So this is something that's this a PR issue that the Trump administration is having in the country [snorts] and of course the death of Victor Ko that shocked everyone in the country. young man is a fairly young guy on his 40s I believe that he is not supposed first to be detained then being held on medieval conditions and lastly killed and even the worst part is keeping their elderly mother wandering around for a year or two for a year almost after the after the you know he said I mean this particular woman had his son dead and she learned that a year afterwards. So a horrible situation. The Venezuelan people are shocked, are upset and right now since Trump is claiming that he is in charge in the country, some responsibility is going to Trump himself despite the fact that this particular gentleman passed away last year and he was covered for the for the intering government for now and that's not Trump's fault. However, uh Trump needs to do a better PR work uh regarding the communications in Venezuela. People are upset and he if he thinks that he can rail this thing on the right track, he needs to do a better job. The Trump administration, they need to do a better job regarding the communications and the first thing is just doing something about the death of Victor Ker. Now we're going to discuss further h something very interesting is that is Venezuela under a green sun occupation by the United States. Well uh we're going to discuss you know the nitty-gritty the brass tax on that department. I don't know if you remember when the United States occupied Iraq, you know, after the war with Saddam Hussein and whatever, they had something called the Greenson in Baghdad, capital of Iraq.
Basically, [clears throat] it was a heavy US militarized area. They had the embassy, the the military bases and whatever. So, are we today or we have today in Venezuela a green son in Karacas? Well, we are going to discuss that and first right now the the state that we have on Venezuela in the US is that it's a total state. So basically the Venezuelan government is doing what the US is wants to do but without a particular you know usual occupation boots on the ground. However, there are significant presence of the United States regarding diplomats, business people and whatever.
Today we are going to discuss the manual the occupation manual of the US military, the US army actually and how they proceed and if this something that we are seeing right now in Venezuela. So this might give some spoilers on what is going to happen in the near future in Venezuela since we are on a political transition.
So first this particular manual so you can check it yourself is called the ADP37 the stability manual of the US Army.
So the first statement from this manual so remember it's from 2019 so you can check it on on PDF on internet if you want to uh stability for the US interest is not option talks about the procedures besides military force that in order to keep peace and stability on a particular territory after you know a military event like we had in Venezuela. H military force is not enough. You need a lot of let's say a soft approach in order to do things in in an occupied country.
The goal is building a legitimate governance, rule of law, social well-being and being you know a s a sustainable situation.
And sometimes uh that is doesn't happen.
We know the we know the events on Iraq Afghanistan that in Afghanistan completely fail in Iraq is kind of in the middle. Well, you got afterwards al-Qaeda and ISIS and whatever. I don't want to get address that. But you have a lot of success stories. Mostly the most notorious one. After World War II, Japan, Germany and Italy, uh they had economic miracles afterwards and right now and afterwards they became uh US allies very close US allies. Actually all of those countries are members of the G7 club.
So in that regard it was a success story and you have military bases on three of those countries and whatever. But yeah and remember those countries were the enemies of the United States back then Germany, Japan and and Italy were the equivalents of Russia, China and Iran today. So imagine that in a 100 years they will be the close allies of the US.
Well I I wouldn't bet on that but yeah that's basically the goal. And not only that, that happened other countries in Latin America, for instance, in Panama after the the just cause operation that deposian dictator. And right now, Panama is one of the closest allies of the United States in Latin America. And you know, we have the Panama Canal. So was strategic for them. And different other countries happened. Grenada from the 80s several countries in Asia and even you have the case on Randa that I don't want to discuss that much further because I'm not an expert in what's horrible what happened I don't want to hurt any sensitivity but apparently the project on Randa that on the night on the mid 90s something horrible happened in Randa I can even say it on YouTube so so [clears throat] maybe you can Google yourself but afterwards because the institutions were reformed and right now Randa is a kind of like prosperous countries for subsaharan African standards. So even in Randa this particular man will work and sometimes doesn't work and that's what you see on the news like uh Vietnam and Afghanistan. So the are the unsuccessful cases. Anyways, now the United States applying this particular manual, they have been able to deal with a lot of threats, geopolitical threats. And the good news is that in Venezuela, unlike most of the countries that I just mentioned like Iraq and Afghanistan, uh the Venezuelan culture is actually kind of similar to the US culture kind of just with Spanish. uh we don't have [clears throat] political and religious extremist you know uh like you know I don't want to the word with tea so we don't have that in Venezuela we don't have um cultural differences that you have in Africa Randa was one of the cases that you have two different tribes that they don't get along and they you know end themsel mutually and I don't want to get into that so on that regard Venezuela is fairly stable on social issues. The only issue is that the government really despises the the I'm sorry the people really despises the their own government and their own government. It's not like they love that much their own population anyways and that and that's between the the people of the country the citizens of the country against their own government and that's basically the main issue and this is something that can be fixed using uh success cases of the past by the United States. So the the main point of this particular of this particular manual for in order to create stability in the country you just need to remove the active drivers of instability that in Venezuela if you are savvy of Venezuela h you know which those are and generate resilience a resilient erh government and institutions the most important Okay.
Okay. Now we have the the US army in order to you know reach that particular goal they have six task that need to be fulfilled uh basically completely well the first thing is civil security. So right now the security apparatus in Venezuela is to is mostly political rather than serving the civilian population and this is something that is poised to change in the near future may be happening right now.
Then you have a civilian control. So basically everything works you don't want random acts of violence or social turmoil or anything like that. The task number three is guaranteeing essential services. Yeah, we are way behind that curve on that regard with something that we discussed. Water services, public services, electricity, but the most important the government services are are terrible. The the bureaucracy is terrible in Venezuela. Something that we need to fix. Number four is support the local governments in the country in order to generate good governance. The issue with that we had in Venezuela rather than political instability is the the lackluster governance that we had for the past decades and according to the the US army manual that something that they need to be fixed ASAP and apparently they are on that radar.
Number five is economic and infrastructure development.
uh on that particular case in Venezuela we have the infrastructure actually the problem is lack of maintenance corruption and whatever basically the consequences of bad governance that destroy the infrastructure and of course the economics of the country that's why uh the Trump administration especially Trump himself has focused a lot on fixing the oil industry that is the benchmark and the cornerstone of the of the economy the Venezuelan economics and lastly the six the sixth tax the sixth task is the security cooperation and this is major because it involves as what is called in by the US army is the SSR protocols security sector reform basically re-educating the security people in uh at any given country like that is occupied and right now like Venezuela and the main issue and what you know the manual says is that basically you need to reform uh regarding educating and re-educating the the the average military and the average police officer uh on human rights and the two process in order to manage civil million population and this is something that is lackluster most of the countries occupied by the United States in Panama they were loyal to Manuel Norria the dictator instead of the civilian population they were used mostly as a pritorian army in order to repress the people against the the [snorts] Nora government happen in Germany with the you know the Austrian painter h happened in Italy with the friend of the Austrian campaign there in Japan happened because they were loyal to the emperor and well on that part I believe Japan was actually very in favor of what happened World War II whatever I'm not going to get into that anyways what happens in Venezuela is that most of the military and police individuals are mostly they are tied mostly to for political reasons and political reasons make their everyday job of an average police officer in an average military that we have. By the way, we have a lot of good people on both the police and military in the country. However, political reasons make their work also, let's say, not as correct. And sadly, especially on the military, they have more of a pritorian and occupation mindset rather than a civilian servant mindset. That that is something that according to the SSR protocols they are going to fix.
And so basically is a process according to the SSR process. H you are going to do is you're gonna basically bet the bad players people that cannot be reformed you know corrupt officers corrupt policemen h or military members that have commit severe crimes they will be better. This is according to the manual by the way. If that happening whatever and also implementing another protocol called DDR that is basically disarm the conflicted groups that of course they own guns. Apparently that's that's basically how the SSR program works.
remember that if you're watching this if you are watching this channel from a while you know that time that we have to talk about military affairs and I was just hoping that this thing will end and I'm going to come back talking about economics business and things like that in the country rather than learning what a what a Tomahawk missile is or a tyonderoga cruise destroyer whatever you know you already forget that that's not my cup of tea. But anyways, I had to learn it just for, you know, in order to keep doing this job. But anyways, I have to come back learn learning about military affairs rather than, you know, economics, business, and whatever. Yeah, just wanted to get off my chest.
Anyways, now according to the this manual, the ADP307, we h the US plan for an occupied territory and everything indicates that's the plan going on right now in Venezuela. H according to the manual, we have six steps. Step number one is understand the operational environment.
I think that the US is on board right now that regard. Number two is assess conditions and prioritize and priorities in the country. So whatever you know is technical jumbo but apparently that's what they're doing right now. first with Laogu and now with John Barrett and of course the people involved the secretaries Marco Rubio Gris right Bergam and Trump himself and everyone involved on the let's say renaissance of Venezuela to put it that way step number three of the US plan is design the operational approach mostly governance and rule of law in the country. Yeah, we are still I think we are behind the curve if that's the step that we are right now. Step number four is using adapted military uh decision making for the it's a particular protocol that you need and after that you know the military did the the military thing that thank God that it's not going to happen again hopefully and right now they need to you know establish the the occupation and that everything is going right but you know with the support of the military. Number five is army stability task. You know the c tax that we mentioned previously.
Civil security, civil control, essential services, support to governance, economic and infrastructure development and lastly security cooperation.
And step number six is according to the US plan for an occupied territory is assess continuously and transition. So basically you take a particular territory and then you the last step of the process [snorts] is taking the transitional authorities in order to a legitimate government with rule of law governance good quality governance and whatever that happened successfully in again Japan, Germany, Italy, Panama and unsuccessful cases Afghanistan. and when in Vietnam they couldn't occupy. So that's up to you. But we have a lot of success cases and the US continuously updates this particular manner. So the endgame of this particular occupation manual by the US army is uh a legitimate post occupation civilianled governance.
And it says all the time, this is, you know, kind of like the buzz words of this part manual, governance is the key, legitimate good governance. Something that Venezuela is lacking from the past, let's say decor for the manual is removing active drivers on instability. So take the hint anyone who wants to create instability in the country in Venezuela have been groups like the collectivos that they are civilian are groups tied with the Venezuelan government. So but also could be manifestations political manifestations of disgruntled Venezuelans that they are a lot like most of the population. So this is something to keep an eye on. So, according to the manual, this is something that we're seeing right now and hopefully it will end. It will have a good ending like the video game people like to say. And the end goal is is that uh self-sufficient, legitimate, good government with good governance.
Governance is the key for the the end result of a US occupation.
Hopefully it will end like that. Now let's discuss today the economic outlook of Venezuela according to the enco 2026 poll. This is something that if you follow my work from from a while, you know, I really love this particular study. It's very exhausted and and covers a lot of data. And Kobe is the acronym for the the poll of living conditions in Venezuela has been done by the UCAB.
That's one of the most prestigious universities, the Catholic University of Venezuela, one of the most prestigious in the country and they have been doing this particular national very comprehensive poll since 2014 due to the lack of government data or trustworthy government data and even some private data. So I love this poll. I use it a lot when I talk some of my clients. I always mention it. I put it on my newsletter when it happens and this year won't be an exception. So what I love is that gives you a great snapshot erh of the country especially the living conditions for most of the penance. Of course, it has some, let's say, some loopholes, some uh blind spots that kind of a I'm going to explain that a little bit later, but the most important thing is gives you a good picture on the situation. Now, this poll was made in last year and the results were published this year.
Usually, it's done every year and a half, something like that. So the last time that we spoke about the enco was on 2024. Right now we're going to talk about the 2026 with the data of 2025. So let's start with this. And the first measurements is on demographics.
According to the enco we have uh the population in Venezuela is 28.5 million and it was 34 million in 2015.
something that you have to remember that we don't have a trustworthy a trustworthy I forget the I forget the name I forgot the name in English is the poll I'm sorry it's not the poll it's a census we don't have a serious census in the country since many years so we don't have the we don't have the the real data on first how many Venezuelans we we are the the estimates is we have 9.2 2 million abroad and 28.5 right now according to enco I had an estimation of 25 26 but it's really hard to track and also you have constant movement Venezuelans coming back to the country they address this on in coh but most of the Venezuelans are thinking is on how to leave the country and the trend continues by the way but anyways According to enco we have we're going to take at face value this particular 28.5 million of the the number of the population in the country right now in 2026 one out of every seven pene is on an elder age something that happens also with the migration is that most of the people are economic active population young people 18 to say 45 uh college students or just young young men and women that started a family and they want a better future for their sons and whatever and everything in between. So also a lot of educated people white colors and blue colors and whatever and the people left behind in the country usually are infants and the senior citizens.
According to the [clears throat] I'm sorry according to the demographics uh right now in Venezuela 25% of the population are between zero and 14 years old. 60% are between 15 years old and 59 years old and 15% the remaining 15% are senior citizens 60 plus years old.
Now they cover a segment regarding the access of utilities in Venezuela.
the water supply uh running water uh 78% have access to running water in Venezuela but only 19% is continuous service electricity interesting 98% of the Venezuelan people according to the poll they have access to electricity however 39% have daily issues with erh with you know the constant electricity service and 89% of the poll says that they have at some moment interruptions of the service you know blackouts outages and whatever and 10% of these people are connected to the electrical grid but never have electricity usually on rural areas small towns places like that even I heard a case of a small town that they don't have people just left the town because there is no electricity since several years ago or something like that. I heard that case anyways and other issue is with the garbage disposal the garbage disposal service 64% have access to the service of garbage disposal. you know, a truck, a garbage truck goes to their street and takes out the trash. It's um let's say intermittent dubious service, but it's cannot work in Venezuela. time. Now, let's go with education very quickly.
13% of the of the Venezuelans on on scholar age, you know, from infants to even young adults that are in college, 13% go with to public to I'm sorry to private institutions. Only 13% go to the public sector. So a lot of people mostly go to the private sector according to the most I'm sorry most of the people go the public and 13% only go to the private sector and according to the study happens that inequality affects the access and the quality of education in Venezuela 44% of the youngsters going going to school have an in uh irregular assistance to you know, school uh mostly tied to economic conditions, maybe families that are too poor to send the kids. Even public free education that usually they cannot transport the kid or the the kid gets sick sadly or one of the family members gets sick or they cannot take the kid to college or school or whatever. So a lot of friction, the frictions that happens for the most Venezuelans affects also the regular attendance of the of the youngsters going to going to school. And sadly, this is the most heartbreaking number is 1.2 children are excluded from the education system in Venezuela for different reasons. So it's a sad fact.
Now let's go with migration. H this something that they address but interestingly they address remigration people coming back to the country. So we have according to enco the number that they manage is 7.9 migrants.
Erh remember that number 7.7 is from 2001 2021 2022 uh has been revised for for the NGO tracking this to 9.2 two but according to enco we're going to take just for the sake of the conversation uh their 7.9 number at face value okay uh 7% of the migrants have been repatriated to the country uh mostly infants and senior citizens according to enco the countries that they are aborting more of the of their remigrants are Ecuador and Colombia. Apparently the economic conditions in those countries basically our neighbor countries Ecuador and Colombia are more likely on proportion to repatriate to Venezuela to that the economic conditions on those countries is not that much better is better by the way. I have to be fair with this. Both Ecuador and Colombia have better economies than Venezuela right now at least for the average citizen. However, the conditions are not that much better. And surprisingly for the future, this is according to the story, Argentina has the Venezuelan migrants more likely to be repatriated to the country in the near future. So basically Argentina is not going as well. This is according to the survey by the way. Not saying anything bad about Argentina. Just it surprised me to see that particular, you know, a particular asterisk in the study.
Now let's go with economics first. The labor market.
The labor participation rate in Venezuela is actually quite low is 55%.
And has that number has been stagnated on the past 12 years. Basically the the formal job market is not great and opportunities and whatever in the economy because the economy has been destroyed 80% on the past 12 years.
Anyways, uh so the but still stable on 55% the participation rate and also remember that the people on age of being part of the participation the labor participation age mostly that's the significant cohort that migrate 39 only 39% of women h are part of the labor force is something also remark by the enco COVID study. Erh. Now the silver lining regarding the labor market is that formal employment has a slight rise. So that's hope for the future. No, hope is not a strategy. However, on that particular case, the formal employment has slowly rising. Hopefully, it will continue on that trend. And usually in Kovi the divides the original population in five and 10 you know 10 segments then trenches regarding their income and their social economic status. There's something we're going to use a little bit later. Okay. Uh the salaries on the public sector 22 22.2% 2% of the labor force works in the public sector according to enco that and the average salary is $117 per month on the private sector is 27.2% 2%. So is surpassing the public sector.
So those are great news. And the average salary is basically double $230 per month.
An employer uh only 2.6% of the active uh active labor participation. They have an average salary of 36 uh $350 per month. and self employed uh people 41.9%.
So a lot of formality on the job market.
Uh they have an average salary of $171 per month. And lastly, domestic services, you know, cleaning ladies, gardeners, people like that. Uh 2.2% of the of the job market and they have an average salary of $112 per month. Now those particular study those particular estimates of monthly wages you have to take it with a grain of salt. There is a lot of undeclared income usually. So that's screwed. So and also h the let's say lower trenches or regarding income in Venezuela they have usually a particular usually they have for instance remittances or they do a second job and they get paid you know under the cash under the table things like that [clears throat] and the richer people in Venezuela the people who are millionaires and billionaires h their disclosure of income is not particular accurate. So this is something that you have to take into account.
But those are the report income and you know just have it for reference and reading between the lines. Now on macroeconomic numbers we have the poverty rate according to enco is 68.5%.
So almost 70% of the population are poor are poor. And however that number was 92.9% on 2020. That's basically the bottom of the [clears throat] GDP 80% GDP collapse in the country. So that has improved, thank God. And the extreme poverty rate is 31.7%. So basically one out of three Venezuelans live on extreme poverty. So the subsaharan African poverty cases however that number was 75.2% on 2018 basically the bottom of the GDP collapse in Venezuela.
Regarding GDP erh thanks to the you know the economic recovery we had like a dead cat bounce the GDP the b on the bottom was roughly 43 billion.
Uh remember there used to be almost 400 billion it reached 43 that's the bottom and right now we are roughly 120 so we're still a long way to go but somehow marginal on a marginal way the we have seen some improvements compared to 2018 the the bottom of the economy that actually that that was the situation that created the those millions and millions and millions of migrants that went to Peru, Colombia, whatever the United States and so on.
Also, they have an indicator of multi-dimensional poverty. Not only poverty regarding income and infrastructure, but also uh education, culture, whatever. According to the study, it has improved. It was 55% of multi-dimensional poverty, but used to be 65%. on 2021 basically the end of the bottom of the Venezuelan economy inequality. This is something that I discuss a lot and even in different subjects when I discuss Venezuela and not only the economy but society overall I always mention that Venezuela is the second most unequal nation in the world only behind South Africa because the reading that you're going to Google is not accurate and the reading that I use is actually from this study the encoh inequality for 2025 is a uh 45946 46% of inequality if if I may and that's a lot of inequality but it doesn't reflect the true inequality in the country for the blind spots that I mentioned that this study has that doesn't track the real income in in the country we have people making like $20 per month and also we have people billionaires. So we have extreme inequality. At some moment according to the enco study it was 68% uh or 68 of inequality.
That's even higher than South Africa the most unequal nation in the world in 2017 and on 2022 it was603.
That will make Venezuela the second most unequal nation in the world. And I believe that's the current number. Now if you want to use the 04 459 still still high but not as high but I'm working right now because the the rest of my studies corroborate that we have extreme inequality and only just behind South Africa and that's the number that I'm using 603. I use this even for a dating market analyze. I use this number 603.
Anyways, and according to the inco study, the top 10% of Venezuelans are making roughly $500 per month. Like I said, there is a lot of undisclosed income and there are even on the top.1% there are people making millions per year. But yeah, let's go just for the sake of the conversation with 500. The median income in Venezuela is roughly $100 per month and the bottom 10% is just $20. Sadly, less than $20 per month. Some people you know uh usually elder people that are unactive for working are unfit for working and they get a very modest remittance something like well anyways those are the numbers of enco got the population right now 28 million according to MOI plus 7.9 migrants uh utilities they access the service of uh Utilities in Venezuela is lackluster to say the least. Education a lot of lack on that regard slightly improved but inequality affects the access to not quantity but also the quality of the education in the country. Migration 7.9 migrants however we have 7% of repatriations mostly on infants and Syrian citizens. Most of the remigrants come from Ecuador, Colombia and the near future is expected from Argentina.
The labor market the participation the labor participation rate 55% stagnated 39% only for women silver lining formal employment is slightly rising. The public sector workers er the labor participation rate of the p the public sector is 22% 27% for the private sector. Erh employers are 2.6 in the country. Self-employed are 42% and domestic service uh people involved from that 2.2%.
The poverty rate in Venezuela almost 70% but has dropped for almost over 90%. on the worst part of the economic crisis of 2020 extreme poverty 32% but used to be 75 2018 compared to the worst part of the Venezuelan economy according to enco GP growth we had it still one out of three Venezuelan families don't cover the basic food basket multi-dimensional poverty 55% it was 65% on 2021 inequality according to enco is basically 45% is is is 45 sorry that number however the number that I'm using is over 60 45 46 according to current numbers of enco for me I'm taking the 60 making Venezuela the second most unequal nation just behind South Africa Puerto Kovi is aus cold, but still there's a lot of undisclosure income.
The top 10% is making on average uh $500 per month, but remember there are people in Venezuela making millions uh per year at least. The median income in Venezuela according to enco is $100 roughly but we're going to sold there is a lot of undisclosed income and the bottom 10% sadly is making $20 per month.
Those are the results of the co s of living census. Uh I love this particular study is very well done. a couple of issues every now and then, but yeah, I totally vouch for this particular stuff.
Lastly, we are going to discuss today why Venezuela won't be the next Medini.
This is something that I'm seeing a lot mostly from the passport pros but even digital nomads or these entrepreneurs that you know Medigin attracts a lot of you know young entrepreneurs, crypto guys and whatever people from you know experts in Colombia overall but the the hub is Medin. I love Medin the city of the spring and whatever. Lovely culture, lovely place, beautiful women, beautiful people, whatever. But you know, Medin is okay.
And I'm seeing this recurring theme on social media and a lot of enthusiasts regarding visiting Venezuela. They are thinking, you know, Venezuela will be the second coming of Medin. They are treating kind of like the Jewish people.
they're going to build the third temple or whatever that these people these experts and passport pros they think they're going to build the second med in ina and sadly that won't happen if you're thinking that and today we are going to explain why first regarding cosplay one of the attractives back in the day when meding was a one called hidden gem Latin America 2010s 2015 whatever was a it's a beautiful is of course and but it was very affordable. So the ROI regarding cost of living was awesome. Uh cheap rent, cheap food, cheap groceries, h very entertaining place and whatever whatever and a lot of intangibles that make special medin and they think that they right now Medin has been victim of their own success. So you have a lot of let's say gentrification in Medí. So the rents right now are high. The the services depend of course depending on the service is also expensive and therefore Medin has got a little bit spoiled. They're looking to replicate you know that particular experience especially the good old days of Medin.
and they think Venezuela is gonna be like that and it's not regarded cost of living. Venezuela is not cheap.
Venezuela has never been cheap.
Remember, Venezuela is an oil economy and oil economies are not cheap.
Regardless of the crisis, Venezuela historically has been the the wealthiest country in Latin America on GDP per capita. And right now is one of the poorest thanks to the governance and whatever. I'm not going to address the reasons just just here on this segment.
But the main point is that Venezuela has been expensive and the first people that arriving right now on this new dichotomy of western internationals coming to Venezuela that were not that many. They by the way they were still coming to Venezuela but not on high numbers mostly from Europe not from the United States.
And uh right now the people coming back to Venezuela are the are the oil the oil industry people. Not the small entrepreneur, not the crypto enthusiast, not the guy that has, you know, some significant income online and whatever the small entrepreneur and whatever hustle, you know, Gary Bayner chop attitude and whatever.
No, the people coming to Venezuela, the first international that are right now in Venezuela, they are not it's not this is not something for the future. This is something happening today is that the people coming right now are from the oil companies and these people unlike the self-made entrepreneurs and Gibb enthusiasts and whatever entrepreneurship these people are playing with our employees well-paid employees. They are basically gambling with house money because they get paid by a particular budget from the oil internationals. Chevron, Repzel, Hallebertton, you know the boys and these people have huge usually very significant budgets in order to get a nice rent rental property and whatever.
So that drives and actually that's the standard for the price setting of the Venezuelan rent market very expensive.
So if you come here and you think that just with a couple of hundred you're going to get a mansion or whatever that is not going to happen. First thing, second thing is that unlike other countries in Latin America like Mexico, you know, mostly on Cancun and the the Riviera Maja or Panama or Colombia itself, mostly on Kartahena, those businesses are catered towards the international and usually you know the gringo price dynamic, they charge in pesos the the local population and they charge in hard currency the quoteunquote greenos you know Americans Europeans whatever the business dynamic in Venezuela is not catered towards the international the middle class international American European whatever is towards the very highend wealthy Venezuelan remember that we're speaking just a few minutes ago about the wealth inequality that we have in the country is the the second most unequal nation in the world just behind South Africa. You have people making almost nothing but you have billionaires here in the country. So you have a lot of extreme inequality in Venezuela. So these people the business mostly care to those that 0.1% of the Venezuelan population that are very wealthy and usually pay better, pay on time, don't well you have issues dealing with them. I don't want to get too much into that. But the main point is that the marketing and the strategy and the sales, the price setting is structured in order to please the very ultra wealthy Venezuelans, the high net worth Venezuelans and on the second degree the oil multinationals, Chevron reps or whatever the boys.
And uh if you come here, you're going to come with your backpack and you know, you're a digital nomad or you're a passport pro and whatever that you are going to be, you know, behind the curve because usually you come with a budget and whatever. And these people, both the high network Venezuelan and the oil multinational, come with big budgets to work with.
And most businesses and most real estate providers won't cater towards you. And usually something that I'm seeing and well, this is the third reason is the mindset, the perception of Venezuela compared to the reality of Venezuela is a a huge mismatch. I'm talking the perception for the western multinational something that I'm seeing I'm I said this a lot but meanwhile I'm seeing this trend I'm going to keep trying to correct this particular dubious mindset that people abroad think that Venezuela is like this you know subsaharan African economy and whatever and everyone is broke and for the most part it's the case however we have a small minority of rich people and economy is drive in order to service that very rich people.
So Venezuelans know how being wealthy is. It's not like in Africa or the Philippines or whatever. I mean and even other parts in Latin America, mostly in Central America. So Venezuelans know how rich looks like, how a rich country looks like. They know about price and whatever. So you are not going to get arbitrage in Venezuela regard prices compared to other countries in Latin America or for that matter in Southeast Asia and whatever. So the main point is that if you think that a lot of people think that with a very modest budget they're going to kill it here in the country and that won't happen. So for those three reasons, Venezuela won't be the next Medin. It's not going to be the next digital nomad hub. It's going to be for some sophisticated people. I'm not saying that you have to be sophisticated. But I'm saying that if you have an unrealistic expectations um especially regarding pricing and budget, you're going to miss uh you're going to miss completely the ball here in in in the country. I've seen this a lot.
That's why a lot of people have very unrealistic expectations regarding real estate, cost of living, budgets and human capital whatever. So because there is a bubble on the top 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20% of Venezuelans and those are the ones who are going to provide any kind of business or service or whatever and on that particular bracket uh the economy works completely different therefore you won't get uh the ROI or at the very least the expected ROI in country so basically everything points out that peninsula is very expensive. It's not cheap. It's an oil economy and has memory on how a rich country looks like. So, it's not going to be a hidden gem like Medin used to be. Remember, Colombia was for the most part of the 20th century. It was a failed state. Medin was the epicenter, you know, the drug cartels, Pablo Escobar and whatever, you know, prostitution and yada yada. So, Venezuela won't be like that. H if you are thinking that you're going to recreate that particular experience the meding experience in Venezuela and lastly this is for the guys looking for them. Venezuela is not a good dating market or at not at least a great dating market like Med used to be. I heard you know and not a big fan of the the Colombian and whatever but anyways so the mindset is completely different.
the Venezuelans, the Venezuelan female compared to the Colombian female. Now, of course, this particular on the Jensen women worldwide, you have a lot of sex worker mindset, you know, the Instagram model, the OF creator, the sugar babies and whatever that happens a lot in Colombia and but it's happening in the US and what even celebrities are doing it right now. So, and of course that depreciates the quality of of the data and in Venezuela happens a lot. I'm not going to lie on that, but doesn't happen as much compared to the Colombian women. So, it's a discrepancy over there. So and that of course reduces the quality the intangibles in order to date in if you're thinking just coming regarding day also if you come if you are US citizen or a European or whatever making you know a little money you know drop shipping or whatever or a normal income in you want to lead with money and be successful in Venezuela just because you're leading with money because you make some money online or whatever. And I I heard I was hearing the a German guy that he was saying, "Okay, dude, talking to other German guys to make €2,000 for a pension. You think you're a big shot here? You're not going to be a big shark here." Well, something like that. In Venezuela, like I said, we have a 0.1% of the Venezuelan people are super mega rich. Talking billionaires in some cases. So, and these people have Ferraris and the yachts and private planes and whatever. So, if you want to impress and a lot of women, especially the the most beautiful ones are caring towards those guys, most of them are what we call in Venezuela in jufos.
And so, if you want to lead with money and be successful dating in Venezuela with money, you have to compete with those guys. Ferrari, super yacht, the private plane, yada yada yada. Nicest air karakas is very very expensive regarding the high-end amenities. I'm talking you know nice steak houses and fancy hotels and nice properties and whatever. So a lot of uh people I'm not saying that it's good or bad. It's just it is what it is. And a lot of people watching this from abroad that right now they are on this trend hip hip trend of being a digital nomad or a whatever they see they're seeing is outside looking in because the only thing that they know about Venezuela is usually what happens you know the news on CNN or Fox News or the Wall Street Journal or whatever that's the only thing that they know about Venezuela not about history or economics on social dynamics. ICS and whatever. Most of them not even speak Spanish. Therefore, you're losing most of the picture. So, the main point of this particular site, Venezuela won't be the next. If you are betting on that, uh, bet against that.
Go to Poly Market and bet against or Venezuela has nice amenities. Uh, maybe is that's what you're looking for and whatever there are. So, there's a silver lining here for tourists, digital nomads, passport bros, whatever. But it's not what it's a complete different it's more deeper than that and this something that you will understand you know given time. So that's the whole episode for today. Thank you very much for your attention another week. Uh wishing you the best week and take care of yourself. Bye. And really appreciate it spending your time here with
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