Trump Just Dropped *BIG NEWS* For The Stock Market

Added: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]The stock market is yet again exploding higher today. The NASDAQ up over 1.5%.

[00:00:08]We do have some very exciting news that we're going to get into. First things first to start today's episode. Another very important point in this video that we need to talk about is the markets from a structural perspective. You are pretty significantly overbought at this point. And while that doesn't mean that markets are going to crash, there is clearly going to be some kind of consolidation of this rally that we have seen, history would suggest. So I want to talk about that as well and the areas of this market that you want to be invested in at this point because things are rapidly changing. from one area of the markets that did really well in 2026, that's not going to be the area that does really well in the second half of 2026. So, before we get into all of this key information that will help you make more money, hit that like button.

[00:01:07]If you guys have not done so already, subscribe to the channel. It's free.99.

[00:01:11]Only about 50% of you guys that watch these videos every day are subscribed.

[00:01:16]So, hit that subscribe button if you're not and let's begin. Okay, so this is the exciting news today that sent markets skyrocketing. It says here, "The US and Iran near a framework to restart talks. The US and Iran are drafting a one-page 14-point framework to launch a month of renewed talks, potentially starting next week in Islamabad. Key issues, uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and control of the Strait of Hermoose remain unsolved. The plan includes easing tensions during negotiations, but major sticking points could complicate any deal. Donald Trump today on Iran says if it doesn't end, we will go back to bombing. Donald Trump says today the Iran war may end soon. He said the Iran conflict has a very good chance of ending as the US nears a deal that could require Iran to send enriched uranium to the US and halt parts of its nuclear program. He cautioned progress isn't certain, warned military action would resume if talks fail and said an agreement could come before his trip to China next week. Donald Trump says that he feels the US is closing in on a deal with Iran. Aragoti says today Iran appreciates Beijing's four-point plan.

[00:02:33]This fourpoint plan calls for number one, peaceful coexistence and a regional security architecture, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, number three, upholding international law, and four, balancing development with security. It says here, Israel is unaware that Trump is nearing an Iran deal. Israel was preparing for escalation in conflict. And a French official today says maritime coalition is ready to escort tankers. Donald Trump yet again said today we are going to get enriched uranium from Iran. And you can actually see today over on Kshi the US Iran nuclear deal um betting market here while very low liquidity only about $6.5 million worth of um activity within this contract jumped from about 27ish% uh yesterday up to a high of about 53 53% sitting at about 48. 8% chance that the US and Iran will reach a nuclear deal before August. So, you are seeing a a big jump. But look, like I've said for a while now on this channel, Wall Street is over the Iran war. As as long as there is not a kinetic conflict again, I don't really see the Iran war as a catalyst for this market anymore. I know there's a lot of people that have said, "Oh my gosh, this is going to be a forever war in the Middle East. Like, it's just going to last forever." Um, sure, maybe, maybe that is the case. Uh, I don't know. But what I can tell you is just simply looking at the NASDAQ here, the NASDAQ does not give a about the Iran war anymore.

[00:04:27]Okay? They care about oil markets. oil markets are pricing in to some degree the the shortage to start resolving itself and stocks are reacting to that today. Now, if we take a look at the indexes today, the Russell 2000 is up 1.1%, NASDAQ up 1.62%, S&P up 1.14% and the Dow is up 1%. The VIX today down about 2% sitting at 17.04.

[00:04:57]So again, Wall Street is just not worried about this Iran war anymore. I mean, the the VIX is about as low as I would expect it to be during a midterm election year. Like, are are you going back to 13, 14, 15 even on the VIX? Probably not. It's a midterm election year. There's going to be extra hedging. There's going to be people that are a little bit more nervous just because it's a midterm election year. And historical patterns tend to be that you have a bit of a sell-off over the summertime before a midterm election. And that's what we should expect to see if you're bullish or bearish, right? 2 to 5% kind of trend trends down over the summertime. I'm not expecting some kind of crash here. I'm not expecting some kind of disaster or really not even a correction unless there's like some kind of crazy new development to react to, but some kind of consolidation or or downside, you should be prepared for that. Now, bond yields today, 10-year Treasury yields down six and a half basis points today.

[00:06:07]Two-year Treasury yields down about seven basis points today. So, what is this doing to the projected path for the Fed? Well, it's easing things up a little bit. We are nowhere near like pricing in rate cuts this year though for December 9th. Okay, you're you jumped from yesterday there was an 8.8% chance of one rate cut to now today at 11.8% chance of a rate cut. Like you're not even close to pricing in a rate cut at this point. The odds of a rate hike by December 9th went from 23.5% yesterday to 16.9% today. There's a greater chance of a rate hike than a rate cut this year. Now, obviously, the greatest probability by far is no cut or no hike at 69.5%.

[00:07:03]But if we start to look out to 2027, the odds do start to favor at least one rate cut versus one rate hike. So if oil continues to come down and inflation surprises to the downside, which I do think it is going to over the summer, you're going to start to price in potentially a rate cut this year or a rate cut next year. And that could help to you know give a boost to some of the riskon areas of this market. Oil today down 6 12%. Brent down almost 7.5%.

[00:07:42]This is one of the largest drops in oil we have seen in a while. It's still very elevated. Okay, you're still at $95 a barrel. back even briefly on April 17th, you hit $83 a barrel. Before this conflict, you were in the 60s, right?

[00:07:59]About the mid60s, $65 a barrel or so.

[00:08:03]So, you're still up like 50% from where you were before this conflict. There's plenty of room for oil to come down if this conflict does end. And while look, I don't think the markets are going to just continue to skyrocket if the war ends, I think you have to see some kind of consolidation likely pretty damn soon. In my opinion, some areas could do really well in this market as oil comes down. even if the markets come down.

[00:08:34]Areas that are sensitive to oil prices, like yesterday, I actually made a video on this channel um about the stocks to buy in May, top stocks to buy in May.

[00:08:45]Number one on the list was Royal Caribbean, RCL, you know, down from $362, its all-time high, just back in uh September of 2025. Stocks up 7% today.

[00:09:00]this is one that could benefit from oil that continues to come down and actually move higher over the summertime even if the markets come down. And that's kind of the way you have to be thinking about this market right now. So, you have to be thinking about this market not in terms of just like the S&P is going up or is it going down and then everything's following that. I don't think you're going to have a broad-based um decline in the markets at this point.

[00:09:26]I think some areas are going to do well, some areas are not going to do well. As I've talked about on this channel for a while now, consumer defensives that those valuations are insane, consumer defensives have benefited from the war with Iran, from this defensive rotation, right? utilities and energy and industrials have benefited from the war with Iran. Okay, from a capital influx perspective, well, today consumer defensives are underperforming. Energy utilities are underperforming. Industrials are actually doing quite well. I I I don't know how long that will last for. I think it could be a more neutral area of this market if anything because there are some AI tailwinds to a lot of these stocks, but consumer cyclicals on fire today. Technology doing pretty good outside of software. Okay, software getting uh punched in the face a little bit today just as a continuation from Palenteer earnings, the sell-off we had there. Microsoft really isn't doing anything either. But other than that, I mean, semiconductors doing really well today. Shout out AMD for that one.

[00:10:45]Financials doing pretty well today.

[00:10:48]Again, cyclicals, communication services doing pretty well also. So I do think money is going to leave consumer defensives, industrials, utilities, energy, maybe basic materials and go into technology, consumer cyclicals, financials, areas that benefit from lower oil prices from a more risk onmarket environment. And again, technology, consumer cyclicals, financials, these are trading at some of the lowest valuations you have ever seen before. Whereas consumer defensives, industrials, utilities, and energy are trading at some of the highest valuations you have ever seen before.

[00:11:26]This looks like a pretty pretty easy call to make. Now, we did get the ADP employment change for April. This is the private payroll number. It came in at 109,000 jobs. The forecast was about 70,000. The consensus was about 99,000. So, better than expected uh labor market data today, which uh definitely is a good sign if you're a bull. The last thing you want if you're bullish on this market is for uh the labor market to unexpectedly weaken or something.

[00:11:58]Tomorrow, you have challenger job cuts, planned layoffs, aka initial jobless claims. That is a very important indicator right now because it's very leading. It should be pretty accurate, right? This is all filed online v via the government, right? It there it's less about a survey number like the jobs report actually is. Initial jobless claims in theory should be very accurate like down to a specific single number.

[00:12:29]Okay. Um whereas the jobs data is a survey that's extrapolated for all of America. It's very inaccurate. Okay. So you do have some economic data coming out tomorrow, but the big data is on Friday with non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and Michigan consumer sentiment for the month of May. Now we do have some earnings today and after hours as well from Coherent, IQ, Axon, ARM, Apploven, Dutch Bros, Fastly, Snapchat, Beyond Me, and Albert Marley.

[00:13:00]Uh Thursday, tomorrow morning, you have ACM Research, Celsius, Data Dog, McDonald's, Planet Fitness. Thursday and after hours you have INE, Cororeweave, Open Door, Coinbase, a firm or cataly, Soundhound, Rocket Lab, and Redcat. And then Friday and after hours, you do have earnings from Wendy's. And really over the next couple of weeks, there's going to be a lot of stocks that you own in your portfolio that are reporting earnings. Um, so like the MAG 7 earnings are over with. the earnings that are going to move the broader index are basically done besides obviously Nvidia over the next couple of weeks but the heart of earning season like the the largest amount of companies are still uh going to be reporting earnings over the next two to three weeks but I do want to give you a again a little bit of a of a warning here the RSI on the NASDAQ is at 79 a half basically every time you get to 80 or the low 80s Sometimes you can get to like 81 82 you're going to have some kind of consolidation or downside price action. Doesn't mean the markets have to like collapse or enter a correction or anything like that but it it's it's a red flag that you are getting very close to some kind of um consolidation. I mean the markets have been basically vertical. So, expect some point soon, even I mean the S&P has an RSI of 75. Like, you're going to have some kind of consolidation. Again, during a midterm election year, markets tend to sell off over the summertime.

[00:14:42]I'm not expecting even a correction, but I am expecting a lot of choppiness and a general trend lower over the summertime.

[00:14:52]The bigger rally happens after the midterm elections. technically before the midterm elections. The midterms are on November 3rd. Um October, you tend to begin the rally.

[00:15:04]Um and then that extends well into July.

[00:15:08]But you know, any weakness we get over the next couple of months, I think is firmly a buying opportunity for the next couple of years. I think there are once in a-lifetime, once in a generational um opportunities right now in the stock market. And if if you're bearish right now, you're just you're just going to miss it. But again, if um if you think everything is going to come down over the next couple of months, you're wrong.

[00:15:35]Okay? Money's going to rotate into other areas into some of the underperformers into some of the software AI winners from earning season from I mean, the semiconductor trade looks like it's it's going quite well. that probably can do well until Nvidia earnings. I think as it normally is, Nvidia earnings are going to be great and then you kind of just, you know, sell the news a little bit. That's kind of where I'm leaning with the whole semiconductor trade. So, I think there's a couple of weeks left in that. Um, longer term, I think there's there's a lot of legs to that trade, but you definitely want to be specific with the areas you're investing in right now. areas that are going to benefit from the war with Iran ending or could benefit if inflation comes in lower than expected like cyclicals like financials, areas of tech, software winners from earning season. These are areas that could do really well even over the summertime if the markets do come down a little bit. So, let me know your thoughts on all of this down below in the comment section. Now, if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. Again, I like to be heavily concentrated into big winners. Okay? The hard part is finding the big winners. If you can find those big winners like like we are, you're you're going to make a lot of money. That's the bottom line. You're going to make a lot of money. You cannot get rich in this market by diversifying.

[00:17:07]If you're watching this video, you want to make as much money as possible. The only thing is you don't want to buy dog companies. Now, I'm not a financial adviser, not a financial planner. We've never lost on a large high conviction position. Like we've never bought it and it just crashed, right? Or or dissolved.

[00:17:25]Um a large position that is. We've had small trades that have went bad. But that link is down below. I'm not a financial adviser, not your financial adviser. Contact a financial adviser before making investment decisions. Very important. And you could lose money.

[00:17:40]Full disclaimer there. Have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next