Bitcoin: There’s Less Than 90 Days Left

Added: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]For 32 weeks, Bitcoin has been in a bare market. Now, that is matter of fact based on structure of the chart. Lower highs, lower lows equals a bare market.

[00:00:10]Now, there are signs that we're transitioning from this bare to a bull.

[00:00:13]And I'll cover three signs in particular relating to the macro environment that suggest Bitcoin still has a little more time here, but there could be some brighter lights on the horizon for Bitcoin. Hit the like and subscribe to the channel. your home of macrocycle analysis covering the daily analysis on Bitcoin, cryptos, stock markets, and of course the real estate cycle. Plus, don't forget the reports are coming out this week. Two of stock market, 18-year cycle, and a Bitcoin and economic report. All right, guys, let's dive straight into Bitcoin. We've seen a lot of stuff happen over the weekend in regards to the war and Trump and Iran with their own views on the current ceasefire. But first things first, taking a look at Bitcoin. As I said, 32 weeks down from this high in a bare market. Lower highs, lower lows. There are a few major things here that we've been tracking with Bitcoin. And in particular, we've got price and time. We have structure, sentiment, of course, looking at the difference between the bears and the bulls using objective data. Liquidity, is there money coming into the space? And then if there is, at what rate is this money coming in? And we're also looking at the average true range to give us a little more substance on the liquidity. So, we've seen a few things happen every single time from a bare market to a bull market. The futures markets have just opened with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high.

[00:01:51]The Nasdaq also achieving a new all-time high. Now, this is before the session begins in the US in a few hours time.

[00:02:00]And the Dow Jones very very close to 51.

[00:02:04]Yep. 51,000 points after closing at a new all-time high on Friday. And of course, this is Monday. Markets just opening uh Sunday night for the US. of course, Monday morning here. So, we're still seeing signs that the market stock market wants to run higher and I think ultimately there are still signs that Bitcoin will have another rally. But we've covered several in uh several signals that show the slowing effect of this climb as we reach into the next what I think is going to be a local top and not a final top for the stock markets. Now over the weekend there was more news from Trump which was then kind of denied by the US to Iran. This news stocks and earnings surge and Iran deal may be imminent but Trump says US will not rush into Iran deal not even fully negotiated yet.

[00:03:05]And on top of that, there was a post from Trump on, you know, social truth and X that state that they're getting very very close to at least another ceasefire or settling this whole thing.

[00:03:18]But Iran says the US told them to ignore President Trump's public statements as it's only for domestic media purposes.

[00:03:26]I've gone through how to look at all the sources and really if this is true there's not really a way to find out what the actual truth is. meaning is what Trump's telling us on his posts the truth the ceasefire is coming or is that just all for public display and the the negotiations with the US and Iran are actually the real deal whereby they don't have a ceasefire yet or they don't have deals because when you look at what Iran is talking about they are not saying that they want to rush into any deal they're saying that they must have a a full commitment and then they don't want to keep going backwards and forwards with these ceasefires. However, all that aside, what matters to us trading the markets is what is the market doing? Now, it is early hours of um you know, Sunday night, Monday morning. We haven't got to the pit session yet where the volume comes in. And if the you know if this is the case it's a little bit more speculation here but it seems like the market is trading on the exposts alone what Trump is saying regardless of what is actually happening behind closed doors. We're seeing the stock market run higher. We're seeing oil fall so far it's fallen 5% mark. As I said futures markets have just open and we're also seeing the bond markets reacting to this as well. The bonds are up, the yields are down. And this was a big piece that I was talking about last week, looking at the bonds as they pivot that then start to tick or the the clock begins to tick for a peak in the stock market.

[00:05:09]We're not there yet, which is why I keep coming back to the fact that I think we have more time to go for stock market highs.

[00:05:18]And that will then open the door to at least another rally from Bitcoin whenever it finds its low. So 18-ear cycle, they're the three pieces of this puzzle so far. Oil has been a big one.

[00:05:29]As I said, looks like the markets are reacting to the news from Trump as opposed to what's h actually happening behind closed doors. Oil prices have fallen, stocks are up. Basically the same thing that typically happens time and time again. The bonds also reacting to it as we would expect to in the direction that you'd expect on this type of news. And then the sentiment is not crowded one way or the other. The bullish sentiment from last week was only at around 31% according to the Aouble and the bearishness was pretty high, 43%.

[00:06:04]Meanwhile, the stock market was at all or very close to all-time highs. Yes, it was only off a couple of points, but it was basically trading in that all-time high region. Meanwhile, the investors were more bearish than they were bullish, which typically signals there is further uh upside to go for the stock market. So, let's bring all of this back and then recap some more of the traditional finance. Let's bring it back to to Bitcoin right now. $77,000 weekly closing price, just slightly below uh last week on some of these charts. Either way, pretty well flat.

[00:06:43]Now, the positive here for the short term is that it's still trading above 76,000. The negative is that it's trading below 79. So, it's basically right between a rock and a hard place.

[00:06:54]And again, the market has not given us any clear signal for the direction.

[00:06:59]Taking another step back into the in terms of the weekly, the trend is still up. We have higher highs and higher lows. Volume is fading. Not a great sign, but nonetheless, volume uh the the structure, the pattern is definitely up.

[00:07:16]Higher highs, higher lows. So, now we take it to the next couple of indicators we're watching. And one in particular is the average true range. As I said earlier, this uh in previous cycles, we've typically seen the average true range peak within the B uh within the bull market and it doesn't typically peak at the uh it doesn't top at the peak of the Bitcoin bull market. So, here is the peak of last cycle for the true range. basically the spread of how much volatility and activity there is within the space when there's a lot of volatility, a lot of activity, a lot of people and more importantly a lot of money changing hands. Whether that's people winning, losing, we don't know, but there's a lot of money changing hands, which is why you have these big wild extreme swings on the chart. So, let's have a look at this. So, you can see the whole chart.

[00:08:11]Next cycle, the cycle that we just finished the bull market. Again, same sort of thing. There was the peak in the average true range roughly around the early 2025 peak and then markets fell.

[00:08:22]Increasing volatility meaning increase of activity in uh in the trading ranges.

[00:08:28]Now we get get to the all-time high price for Bitcoin and you can see the average true range drops off which means you're seeing less interest in the market at all-time highs, less volatility. Sometimes it can be a good thing if it can consolidate and hold those gains, but it didn't. So, if that was going to hold above 110, consolidate, and then start to break higher, absolutely okay. It would be normal to see the range and the volatility contract while the the gains were consolidated. It didn't happen, and we got the breakdown in November. Yeah, right on right on queue there. November.

[00:09:04]Now, the range increases because we're seeing bigger swings to the downside.

[00:09:10]So, much larger ranges, more people selling, and it just increases those moves to the downside. Now, typically a low begins to form on the average true range uh right around the price action low. It consolidates, it accumulates, and it reaccumulates before the market begins to head higher. So that was last cycle and that was a cycle before. Now this isn't only a Bitcoin signal. It's not a Bitcoin indicator alone. The beauty about that is that you can see the back testing and you can see how it works on any other market in the world whereby you'll get an accumulation and then a breakout. And if you don't get the accumulation, it's basically like not being able to reload or, you know, fill up your fuel fuel tank before the market's getting ready to to move higher. And if you want to go on a long journey, you need to fill the car up.

[00:10:04]Whether it's batteries or fuel, whatever the hell's in your tank, you need to fill up maximum. The if you can fill up maximum, you're going to get the maximum move higher. Now if we haven't filled up to the maximum here and the market has transitioned just playing devil's advocate here if this is the low at 60k and we haven't filled up the tank then this next move higher will be probably two things it'll be shortlived in time it'll be shorter than this move and it'll be shorter than the last cycle and it'll be shorter than the cycle before that and it'll be shorter than basically it'll be shorter than three years guaranteed.

[00:10:41]The second thing is the move into those next prices will most likely be uh a lot lot lot less in terms of a percentage than the prior bull markets as well. So you're going to get a shorter run in time and you'll get a shorter movement in price as well. Doesn't mean it can't go to new alltime highs. It just be a lot shorter. So depends what type of trip you'd like to take. I'd like to take a long journey into the next highs.

[00:11:09]I know other people they just want to try and make it their um you know a short trip. Anyway, what we saw in each of the price cycles has not occurred yet. And if we look at in terms of timing, we're getting very close. So life cycle the peak to the bottom of the average true range roughly around 85 weeks. So a year and a half, just a bit over a year and a half and then you can extend that out to the next low. But by that stage, you'd gone into the reaccumulation zone where Bitcoin was trading between 25 and $31,000.

[00:11:42]So the area that I'm interested in, so that's 126 weeks, that's 2 and a half years. I'm interested in just at this first low, and that was January 23, just as you get to that breakout point. So it it takes into account all of the accumulation for Bitcoin during those periods. And what we want to know, where does roughly 80 or so weeks count? So we're at 60 odd weeks now. 64 weeks. 80 83 84 85 takes us to September to October of this year. So call it quarter 3, which is that time frame that we're watching for quite some time for Bitcoin. Now this other movement here, this is February 2018. It happened after the peak in the price cycle because you saw absolutely wild swings once the top came in. Nonetheless, we're just going to take a measure from around these peaks in January of 2018 to the lows roughly about 60 weeks. So, we're at about that time frame now, top to this point, which is about 60 weeks like last cycle. But even when you get to the top to the bottom, there was still some more accumulation in time to take place. You had the breakout and then more reaccumulation.

[00:12:55]So, what I think is happening is the transition is there. we don't have the confirmation that the low is confirmed in but I think we're getting signs that we're going through a transitional period even if we're um you know as we take a look at all of these indicators that we've been tracking for many many months now and these are the things we've covered in prior cycles which also called the lows so why not continue to follow for this next cycle so that's the average true range now the sentiment has been an interesting one this time around as well because it's basically been doing exactly what it did last cycle.

[00:13:29]The lows in terms of sentiment, it hit single digits in the crypto fear and greed index, meaning there was extreme fear at the most extreme levels. And that was around February of this year.

[00:13:40]We've seen a rally since that since then. And the sentiment has also rallied into neutral. Now when that happened in the last cycle, we saw a pull back into extreme fear again which was basically around the same price as the capitulation low around the 18k. There was another a break lower slightly lower to 15 16k more accumulation and then the market began to run. So I think we're in the process of that again. That's why I keep looking at this as a transition and not perma anything not perma bull, not perma bear. I think this is possibly in a transition. And if we to see some lower sentiment readings in the extreme fear, then it somewhat lines us up pretty close to what happened last time.

[00:14:26]We're getting very similar time frames again. And yeah, I've got no reason to believe that this time is going to be any different. So sentiment readings over the coming months, I think, is also important. And as we line up those monthly forecasts roughly around that 90 days, that three-month period, I think that's going to get us there. Little bit of a interesting point I think could be that with all of these going ons uh with the US and Iran several of these time frames do take us out to July, August, September. If what the US is talking about they they've mentioned a 60-day ceasefire even though Iran has been told that this isn't true. If something like that does get negotiated, well then that takes us out to July and who knows whether they put on another 30 days or 60 days, but we're getting to very close to quarter 3. So that's something else that I'm keeping in mind, especially with these um time frames that Trump keeps posting about. So sentiment is lining up, average true range is lining up, meaning the the volatility is is contracting into that period. And not once have we ever seen the true range basically uh bounce into a low and then rally into highs. It can happen, but as I said, that would be a short-term fuel tank with a short-term move. But yeah, I'm I'm looking forward to one of these big ones here. Let's wait and see. Um the other piece would be the liquidity, and we haven't seen the liquidity base out yet. There is some signs that it wants to, but we're still at lower highs and roughly lower lows, but we could be getting there.

[00:16:02]This is the liquidity for the cryptocurrency exchange volume. Last cycle you're basically trading around the lows consolidating before you get a breakout. Cycle before that 2019 2020 in the lows consolidation before the breakouts. So far the only tops that have occurred that you can see here on the chart are basically lows in the market. So these two spikes in the volume were around lows and prior to that we had a couple of the highs there.

[00:16:33]But none at no point did the alltime high for this bull market cycle for Bitcoin come in on the highest exchange traded volume. It's all been happening on the way down and we've just seen lower lower highs and lower lows. So we still don't have that volume back yet for for Bitcoin.

[00:16:54]In regards to timing, we saw it happen again for Micro Strategy. The week closed down. So, there's a big uh drop here for strategy. Just checking my dates here. That was all of last week.

[00:17:06]It fell 10% last week and it was right on time with the prior cycle. So, if you have been following, you will be familiar with the time frames that we've tracked from the peak of Micro Strategy to oops to the lower highs. So peak to the bottom to the lower highs to the corrections to the lower highs to the capitulation lows even to this current rally has almost mirrored last cycle.

[00:17:36]Exactly. There's a capitulation and there is your top of last cycle and even to the point of these last two weeks of micro strategy collapsing that happened last cycle into this rally out of the capitulation. that bar right there, the exact time frame from the lows. So, it seems strange. I know there's always comments from people saying times don't work. It's all a matter of whatever else they believe in.

[00:18:04]Humans are humans and they typically respond to emotional stress around the same time. There's if they're pissed off at something, they usually build and it'll take them time until they they break. If they're excited about something, they're usually going to be excited for a period of time until they break. It just occurs over and over again. And this has been tested for over a hundred years when you check back to stock markets, fear and greeds and the extreme excitement into the 1920s or the 1980s. All these things happen over and over again. And again, humans just don't want to learn from the past, which gives us our edge if you are willing to use it in your own trading. So time frames from the lows, same sort of deal here. The interesting part now is if this is going to repeat, well then where does that time frame leave us? Let's open up a couple of time frames here, few of the dates.

[00:19:01]And where are they? Oh, here they are. Okay, the capitulation low to the final low is about 33 weeks. I've taken a couple of weeks off because the one thing I've noticed in this cycle is that it's might be happening just slightly quicker, which might mean you'll get an extra couple of weeks if this thing rallies.

[00:19:19]But let's put that aside and just watch the the range of time that um humans typically repeat their mistakes. So 31 weeks to 33 weeks, that'll take us out to about September. So early to mid September, we're watching first second week up to the fourth week. And that could be the low there for Micro Strategy. Now, Bitcoin loaded about a month earlier than what Micro Strategy did. So, we're definitely going to be on alert for August, which is basically 90 days about thereabouts from now for a potential Bitcoin low. So, we're getting very close. And I think the rest of these indicators are also lining up with that sentiment average true range liquidity and our overbalances in time and price as well. So a few things that we are watching here as we get closer and closer to this date. Micro strategy has been a pretty key one here as we uh we we line up with these lows. Now the 200 day moving average has also been hit.

[00:20:23]We've seen the rejection over the last couple of weeks. The interesting part now is from those rejections in the last bare market. There were a couple of weeks down which so far has happened the same and then there was a bit of uncertainty between the bulls and the bears. Market was holding out but it was still in a downtrend. So you had this short-term downtrend and it was just holding out before you had the dip lower. Now, if we are in this sort of a phase of the market, so this one here getting into the low, so we can be rejected here and hold out. But if we're getting closer to that low, then the move down may not be the same as what some might be expecting, you know, this larger correction down. It might be a little bit more uh well, obviously less of a correction down and something that represents uh something similar to the end of the cycle. So there can still be a capitulation, but it may be less than what you've seen earlier in the cycle, especially with the the decline that we've seen so far, that sort of 52% from from the highs. So either way, we're still looking out for more downside. As I've talked about it being a bit more brutal and boring to to cover until we get to this final period of the low, smaller accumulation ranges or the the average true ranges as we get towards the breakout. And I think that timing is still coming through for for quarter 3.

[00:21:47]You can see in 2018, same sort of thing.

[00:21:50]Really really tight ranges breakdown tighter and tighter ranges. very very boring trading action for months and then you start to see some excitement come through. That was 2018. And then in 2020, sorry, 2014, same sort of thing.

[00:22:06]Rejections off the 200 day. Couple of weeks to decide with the bears and the bulls. You know, who's winning here? All that sort of that goes on on X and then the breakdown again. Holding out. Bit more of a breakdown here. But you can see that these breakdowns were a lot less than earlier in the piece. Get to the low and then it all sort of bases out from that point. Now, for those that are interested in altcoins, I did see something absolutely ridiculous on X.

[00:22:34]Not going to have a an entire hate here because if you're trading them, I think you could be on to something in the coming months. But the ridiculousness of a 9-year accumulation range for altcoins, it's essentially all vaporware. And I know I've still got some people who are a little bit whack, a little bit mental, and think that their altcoin is going to make it. Um, but nonetheless, if you're just trading them to make some money, then this could be a way to go, especially if it holds out here. If you can see these bases begin to hold at about. 26. This chart is the ratio of total market cap excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stable coins. So, basically, you've got all of the altcoins out there. Then, if you got some low here and a breakout, could be on for some good trading. And obviously in the last couple of days there's been some good trades off Hype and one or two others maybe Tron or something like that. But the main thing that has not occurred since 2017 and reasons that you could say argue that well 2021 was also a great year is that we have not seen a larger rally on this market compared to the first time which means over the long term the coins continue to die and if we're going to see a transition from you know the main players Bitcoin and Ethereum to some other sort of random altcoins to take the lead and actually grow in market value, then we have to see this chart break higher and overbalance any of the prior moves. So, you can see from this cycle 23 to 25, we've only got about two major rallies. One, well, that's in 2022, but 2023, there was a rally here and a rally there. And then late 25, there was one more rally, which was even less than the prior rally. So, if there is going to be a base and we get a rally out, it's got to exceed all of this jargon to then have a a chance at having a nice big fat altcoin season.

[00:24:39]Otherwise, it's all going to die out yet again. And any sort of breakdowns below.

[00:24:44]25 probably going to result in a test of the next low at 0.2. And if that breaks, well, then you're basically just going back to the dark ages of altcoins. So overall, this basically looks like a chart that is flatlining, but it looks like there could be some opportunities in the coming weeks for these sort of rallies, which I think also lines up with a quarter 3 move as we're only about, you know, five weeks away from from quarter yeah, from quarter 3 about five weeks away into July. And you can see the rallies just how long they've lasted throughout 2024, five, and six.

[00:25:21]Not very long. So take it easy if you're on that that altcoin train. You got about 12 weeks in the first move. You got about 2, four, five weeks in the prior move there. And then this rally here was again maybe three, four, four months as well from those lows. So be ready. That's the the call here, at least from what I can see in terms of the indicators. And I think we've got something special coming here with the stock markets. Maybe we go through a bit of a consolidation after those huge gains in the semiconductors over the coming months and any sort of declines that we would end up seeing on the stock market may lead to further drops on Bitcoin like larger drops which then sets us up for that low. So I don't think moves down are any sort of bad news at this rate especially with the the strength in the traditional finance and I'm yeah very much looking forward to quarter three especially if it's a bit more of a quieter period than what we've seen in the first quarter of 2026.

[00:26:20]So with that said make sure you subscribed like the content and check out the reports coming at you this week the 18ear cycle stocks and Bitcoin and I'll see you guys back at the next video. Cheers.