Everybody Knows Nobody’s Going to Jail

Añadido: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice. It is for educational purposes only. Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full.

[00:00:09]We know their lying. They know their lying. They know we know their lying, right? The insider traders, they're not even trying to hide it at this point anymore because there appears to be no consequences for them whatsoever.

[00:00:28]Hello everyone. Welcome to this episode of Finance You. I'm your host, Chris Martinson. I'm back with Paul Ker of Kiker Wealth Management. Paul, so good to be back with you. So much to discuss today.

[00:00:39]>> Yes, we have a lot to discuss and it's great to see you, too.

[00:00:42]>> Well, I want to start here with this idea that we've never I've never seen anything like this. But, you know, history rhymes. I've This isn't my first bubble I've been through. It's actually, embarrassingly enough, probably my third or fourth. Uh people are only supposed to experience them once a generation.

[00:00:58]>> Yeah. So I want to start with what we're seeing going on in our in our financial markets by starting out as with this idea that there's a narrative war at play, right? That the narrative is all important. And what's the narrative? So this was on the above the fold front page finance new sorry Yahoo Finance today which is uh the 6th of May. And the headline reads stocks rise on report US Iran close in on peace deal. sub headline, markets are eyeing signs of easing in Mid East tensions and impressive AI fueled tech earnings. So, I want to deconstruct these narratives a bit, but first, why would the stock market be going up on the easing of tensions? Because they've been doing nothing but absolutely skyrocketing with the increase in tensions. So, now they're going to do better for the easing of tensions. That's that's the trouble with these narrative makers. are always trying to like tell a story that fits what we're seeing. But >> right, >> I think they have to struggle a bit, you know, to be consistent.

[00:02:00]>> Well, I think they do, too. But it seems to be that we're in the late stage cycle where fear of missing out and panic chasing is involved. So, this is just part of late stage cycle. Good news is is good news, bad news is good news. and and everything else is ignored because people are caught up in this just FOMO, fear of missing out and the euphoria of of uh the speculative attitude that we have in the I mean Trump said a couple of weeks ago the world's a casino and now we're starting to see it really look like a casino. Yeah. And a casino where the rules are rigged in favor of the house. I would agree because there's been some insider trading. We'll get to that in just a minute. But this I want to just close in on the narrative structure. stocks rise on the report that US and Iran close in on peace deal.

[00:02:46]So, so that's okay. So, what happened was at 4:45 I now have the exact minute. Um, an Axio's article came out and by the way, Axios has been dumping market moving headlines this whole time. And Axio said the report was that quote, "The US is nearing an agreement with Iran on a memo to end a war." I wasn't aware you ended wars with memos, but apparently you can.

[00:03:10]And the memo was just like this US wish list like we're going to see Iran committing to enrichment moratorum.

[00:03:16]You're going to see the US agreeing to lift sanctions but over time it's going to US may agree to release frozen funds.

[00:03:22]Uh both sides lifting restriction on Harmuz. They also said that in this memo that Iran was going to give up all of its enriched uranium. Uh never enrich again, never seek a nuclear bomb, all kinds of things. And so this comes out of 450 and you know just about 7 o'clock this morning of course Iran comes out and says nuhuh. So they said here quote what US media outlets are publishing about the details of the negotiations does not reflect the reality of what is happening. According to uh the news outlet Al Arabi citing Iranian sources progress has been made in talks but it has not yet reached a level that would lead to an agreement. negotiations are focused on ending the war, not the nuclear issue. And the negotiations are still facing the intrigent American approach and excessive demand. So this is the US issuing demands and saying these are our terms, take them or leave them. Right?

[00:04:19]And that's exactly what happened because after Iran came out this morning and said, "Nuh-uh." Trump said, um, assuming Iran gives in, agrees to give what has been agreed to, not by them, by us.

[00:04:32]Assuming >> assuming Rian agrees to give what had we agreed to, which is perhaps a big assumption, the already legendary epic fury named by a 10-year-old boy, uh, I think it's awesome, you know, will be at an end and the highly effective blockade where we were blockading the blockade to make sure the blockade that had some leakage of the blockade was fully blockaded will allow the hormone straight to be open to all including Iran. If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before, by the way, they're all in on it. Here's Reuters saying the same thing. Oil prices ease, markets rally as Trump works deal towards deal with Iran.

[00:05:16]Now, does that sound like a deal has been struck? Did I miss something?

[00:05:21]>> No. That that sounds like that US is still expecting unconditional surrender, and we haven't seen that out of Iran yet. No, >> no. And and but it's kind of an interesting setup, right? So Trump says, "Oh, we gave them this deal. If they don't agree to it, they already agreed to it. We we think they agreed to it, but if they don't agree to this thing they already agreed to, we're going to have to bomb them again." So it's kind of like saying, "No, it's your fault."

[00:05:46]>> Right.

[00:05:47]>> Right. Right. Right. Always fingerpointing. We're the greatest. This is epic. And fingerpointing >> like like Paul, I'm a car I'm a car dealer. and and you and I, you know, were negotiating towards the price of a car. And I go back in, I talk to my manager. I said, "Yeah, he's agreed to he's agreed to pay 2x the sticker price, which you haven't." And I come out and I tell you, "Hey, yeah, uh 2x the sticker price or the deal is is busted." And you go, "What?" You know, that's not negotiating.

[00:06:15]>> No, no, that's not negotiating at all.

[00:06:19]It's not. It's demands. It's demands.

[00:06:21]This is what we want.

[00:06:22]>> Yeah. But anyway, so again, but that narrative, so we're all like inundated in these narratives, right? The narratives. Reuters is reporting it and Yahoo Finance and it's New York Times.

[00:06:32]Everybody's report, all the mainstream media report the same thing. Close to a deal. Now, we've been, this isn't the first time. How many times we close to a deal in the last six weeks? Uh, every day practically.

[00:06:43]>> Every day. At at least Monday through Friday. We get a little bit of a break till the futures open on Sunday afternoon.

[00:06:49]>> Correct. Correct. Saturday, Trump is a tough guy. He's like, "Yeah, bomb them back to the stone age and end civilizations." And that's a sat that's Saturday talk. But it it's pretty much the markets are being talked up, talked up, talked up, you know, and there was just a interview this morning or or yesterday it came out, but I saw it this morning where Trump said, you know, I kind of expected a 25% market decline in oil to maybe hit two-300 a barrel. And wouldn't you know it, stocks are actually up and oil's only 100 a barrel.

[00:07:18]So this is fantastic.

[00:07:22]Yeah, with no hidden hand, no jawbon, no propaganda effort. It just happened to do it on do it on its own in a completely free market. Right.

[00:07:31]>> That's the story. But uh hey Paul, I'm seeing this like really big people like, you know, it used to be just some contrarians at the edge kind of squinting sideways at at the markets, right? But a lot of people are starting to notice and question an invisible hand. I've actually been really surprised by that because analysts that they don't want to push the edge too far, right? It takes a little bit of courage and you got to be in a situation where you're independent because if you're with a big corporation and you push that edge a little bit too far and you get outside control, it's job security risk. But that doesn't seem to be the case. It's not just the independent analysts that that have to work for the the you know, they only get the fee of the efforts of their research and they've got a lot of followers out there. And now you're starting to see these analysts with with larger corporations and institutions that are willing to state it out loud. And that's that's been a surprising mile marker to to indicate where we are in this journey and just just lack of integrity when the majority starts to say, "Hey, something doesn't add up here." Um that that's been shocking to me. Something that I've not really seen all in agreement until late 2008, but not even to the extent percentages of what we're seeing right now. They were still keeping the narrative coming out of, you know, the Fed. Hey, things are great. Housing's under control.

[00:08:51]Subprime's no problem. Um I don't know the percentages, but I'm just going to take a wild guess from my observation.

[00:08:57]It was maybe 40 50% back then. It seems to be 75 80% now that are questioning the narrative. Yeah, because the narrative just doesn't make any sense obviously, right? Um so we've seen problems with the oil prices, oil structure. We've had warnings from the head of uh the CEO of Exxon to um the head of Carlile all saying, "Hey, all the major investment houses, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, um you know, Deutsch Bank, all saying, "Hey, we are only a month away from hitting bottom of our tanks." And when that happens, all heck breaks out. And still the narrative structure is more powerful than that reality. The narrative structure is this fake thing written by Axios. And again, it's it's they're just they've been putting out fake headlines, market pumping, pre-market fake headlines the whole way through. Fine. But when they do that, they're taking us further and further away from reality. And right over your head, Paul, I see the history of bubbles. All of those bubbles have these really sharp rises and even sharper declines on the backside.

[00:09:59]>> Yeah. I got to slide out of the way. So you can see that a little bit better.

[00:10:03]But I mean that that's the blowoff phase and that's all all the bubbles in. I mean I mean just just go back to January. I mean silver did the same thing, right? And even gold to an extent, but it was mostly silver. So I mean this is happening in rapid succession across different asset classes. And I'll I'll reference that here in a minute. But um but you know they don't end well. They don't end well. And the question is, you know, especially when you have just this pure fear of missing out, upside panic. Um, and I don't really understand where it's coming from. What I do know is it's really hard on the emotion of nearly every investor that's involved in this journey and that's what bothers me so much. So they're individuals that didn't have a strategy that back in 20161717 some back in 2008 recognized issues were in didn't think that they could kick the can down the road this long and they've been sitting in cash the whole time.

[00:10:57]Right? These type of moves really really make it stressful for those individuals and and the chance that they get sucked in right at the worst time or maybe a little bit of instant gratification and you know or 2017 even back to then. So even those that are in are feeling the euphoria and they have a little bit of nervousness to nervousness to begin with, but when this market takes off like this, they're all in. And then think about, you know, just the power, right? So if you're I if you're Trump, these tweets, if you're Axios, man, we're moving the markets. Everybody's paying attention to us. And and that that power leads to arrogance. And then you've got these insiders that are shorting. I mean it it they're not even trying to hide it at this point, right? Like what's the old saying? I always get this messed up when I'm doing it live right here, but you know they what was it Alexander Solenson said? We know they're lying. They know they're lying. They know we know they're lying, right? The insider traders, they're not even trying to hide it at this point anymore because there appears to be no consequences for them whatsoever. And the problem is is they're they're they're impacting the citizenry and those individuals that are that are trying to do it the right way, trying to do it the morally correct way. And and it seems that they're just drunken this power of, hey, you know, look, we're great. We're making everybody rich. But the consequences of not telling the truth at this point because I'm I mean, you've got the data.

[00:12:27]I'm really struggling with the mismatch of where we're headed at this point based on what the market's looking at.

[00:12:34]And you know, so the question is, uh, is the market right? Is it anticipating that we're not going to have an issue no matter how long this goes along?

[00:12:44]I guess it's a possibility, but the math just doesn't add up. So then you got to go back and look at CO, right? I mean, it was clear that they were preparing everybody for lockdowns and the market's just ripping right into the moment they're announced and then it collapses on the other side. That that's my concern. You know, not fear-mongering, y'all. This is just the reality of the situation we're in and we have to play the game by the rules that are forced upon us. But, you know, this is this is a dangerous game. They're playing a very dangerous game with a lot of people's, you know, livelihoods on the line when reality sets in.

[00:13:24]Markets are facing heightened uncertainty and thoughtful portfolio management has never been more important. If your current strategy relies solely on passive investing or diversification without active oversight, it may be time to consider a different approach. At Peak Financial Investing, we connect you with experienced wealth managers who actively manage portfolios using disciplined, research-driven strategies designed to adapt to evolving market conditions. Our focus is on helping clients navigate volatility with clarity and confidence.

[00:13:59]While no investment strategy can guarantee results or eliminate risk, we believe that preparation and active management can make a meaningful difference over time.

[00:14:09]Visit peakfinancialinvesting.com to schedule a complimentary consultation and explore whether our approach aligns with your goals. I'm Dr. Chris Martinson and I am proud to support Peak Financial Investing. This is not a guarantee of future performance, but a call to take your financial planning seriously.

[00:14:28]Again, that's peak financial.com.

[00:14:32]Investing, of course, involves risk, including the potential loss of principle. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a qualified adviser before making investment decisions.

[00:14:44]This is how they've operated for a long time with these narrative structures, right? So, if they can just jawbone the markets and I know there's cash flooding into these markets cuz all my liquidity gauges are pegged red right now, Bitcoin and everything, right? Um, so I know they're they're both visible handing it with their jawbon and you their media allies out there, you know, telling the talking points they want relayed, but also the invisible hand. Money is coming from somewhere. And as you and I discussed last time, there was $172 billion of Fed printing already in the first four months of this year, plus the US government's interest payments, which is STEMI checks to the financial markets, right? Um, principally. So, we look at that, we say, okay, the just the behavior of the markets since there are sort of needle bottom, which uh we're going to have to take a look at that in a little while. Um, it just doesn't smell right at all. Now, here's the problem. This all goes along fine, Paul, until it doesn't work anymore. And then we look at the chart over your head and um we get we get these we get these ups and downs. I wish I could tell you this is my first time experiencing this. This is what happened in 2000, 2001, right? This is what happened in 2007, 2008, 99, right?

[00:15:59]Again, right? And it's happening again.

[00:16:02]And and so that's a lot of bubbles for a single person to experience because normally they're so painful. You should learn. But they think they can just print their way past it. This is oil.

[00:16:12]This is sulfur. This is ura. This is aluminum. This is helium. You can't print your way past these things. That's what's coming. And um I'm just worried that those these headlines such as they are, they're designed, Paul, to keep the average person off the scent.

[00:16:29]>> Yeah.

[00:16:30]>> And in the game, >> right? They re Yeah, they really are.

[00:16:34]And is it is it for arrogance? Is it for the feeling of power, right, with these with with these tweets and this this misinformation?

[00:16:44]Is it all for midterm elections to try to keep the markets up into the midterm?

[00:16:48]I I don't know. But it's a dangerous game to play. And I mean, it's just a dangerous game to play. And and you know, maybe now is a good time to kind of go back and reference. I just want to show, you know, just like silver, right?

[00:17:02]If we go back to here recently, you know, these blowoff moves are awesome.

[00:17:07]And I love, don't get me wrong, I love the fundamentals from a long-term standpoint, but I remember there were were a lot of folks that we were looking to kind of average in. And I'm like, okay, hey, let's just stand back and let this finish, you know, and the question is, but you know, what if we go to $300 an ounce? That made a whole lot more sense at the point because the fundamentals uh uh are there, but it but when you get these type of moves that take place, you just kind of got to stand back and just be patient. That's the discipline part. And I know I've replaced, you know, control your emotions basically, you know, work your plan and not your emotions, but still it's hard all the way across the board, right? So, so silver is very instructive and you get those blowoffs for for what they're markets. I think there's even reasons. There's reasons why that chart behind you always looks the same even before we had computers and futures and options and all the fancy things. It's that it you have to the the way a bubble ends is you have to suck in the most mo number of people at the highest possible price and then you just I think they end when you run out of buyers. You know, >> they do.

[00:18:11]>> I think that some unfortunate person is the last person to die in World War I and some unfortunate person is the last person to buy, you know, the NASDAQ at the peak, right? It's just it's just how that works.

[00:18:22]>> Well, and and you're right, information moves faster. You know, there was a period of time in the past where information was power. Information is commoditized. Now, was commoditized. I'm going to change this a little bit. Was commoditized. So, it's the wisdom to know what to do with that information became the power. Well, true and honest information is where the real power is right now. I mean, that that's kind of how we seem to have changed. But let's go back and looking at the tulip bubble. That looks minimal right there compared to Bitcoin and the Tesla bubble that's referenced in that chart. But I mean you didn't have computers. You didn't have that. I mean we know today, right? Tulip there's no reason to have a tulip bubble. But it's the human nature. Okay. So the one thing is you know money never lasts rarely lasts through three generations.

[00:19:12]Uh really a good father is hard to find except for you know consistently in three generations because those of us that may not necessarily have had a good father decided to choose a different path and you become the father that you desire but your kids have a good father right and then they don't understand the importance of it and they get pulled into chasing the world and neglect their family things of that nature. Money is the same way. This is all of our human emotions. This brings up a point. So, I got to give Nick credit when we were talking this morning and and I I I actually wrote it down. I butchered it.

[00:19:49]I didn't get all of it because I didn't want to interrupt his thought process, but we were talking. He says, "You know, humans tend to overdo things. They overspend. They overeat. They overspeculate and we might just be in the super cycle of overdoing things."

[00:20:03]And and that's really seems to be where we are right now. You know what happens in private uh credit, private equity, there's a market space. It has uh it solves a problem in the economy, but as success comes along and that hindsight um uh picture looks really really good, the people that are in that space are wanting more and wanting more and wanting more. They suck more people in and and the returns look great and people believe, hey, if I'd have just done this 10 years ago, then I would have been here. and they assume that that's going to happen over the next 10 years. And then when everybody believes that narratives, that's where those bubbles come into place and they they forget the lessons of the past because the average person just doesn't enjoy history. The average person doesn't want to do the work, right? I mean, it's hard to lose weight. Some some people it's easier than others. But if you've got a pill that helps you to lose weight or a pill that helps you to overcome eating, that's an easy fix. And I believe we're just in that that peak environment where discipline, morality, honesty is is is not valued because of the wealth that our country's been through.

[00:21:21]And we've lost the fear of God and the fear of reality. And the fear uh we have no fear of the ultimate outcome when we overdo things. And that pendulum swings, we have no clue where it's going to end.

[00:21:34]And then it reverses back with a vengeance. And that's what happened in the Great Depression. There were all of the investors that were really damaged when they were 65 to 70 year years old in the year 2000. Guess what? They got hurt. They're out of the picture. They had to change their lives. They Some of them are still alive at this point. I think they're 85 90, but they're not the ones that's being interviewed on CNBC talking about how they got wiped out in the year 2000 and had to downsize dramatically and the picture of their retirement absolutely got eviscerated because that's not what sells news.

[00:22:10]That's not what sells stocks. That's not what sucks people into this game.

[00:22:15]>> You're talking about a reversion back to reality off of the fantasy, the the dream, the hope, the fantasy, the bubble, and then reality snaps back. And um he said people also don't like history. So history is kind of a that's the reality of what happened. It reminds me of that that little card title card that came up in the movie The Big Short.

[00:22:33]I'm going to leave one word out. Uh and that title card says >> truth is like poetry. Everybody hates it.

[00:22:44]>> Yeah, that's a good one.

[00:22:45]>> Just left that one word out in the middle of that. But anyway, um so all right. So that's the narrative structure and and very well said all of that. So beware the narrative and I just want to remind everybody that if you would love to talk with Paul and his amazing team, you go to peak financialing.com, fill out a very simple form within 48 business hours. Somebody from Paul's team will get a hold of you. We got a really ironclad systems working beautifully. And uh you'll set up an appointment. You'll have the first of three calls, which is an introductory call, then a planning call. If all goes well, you'll have a recommendations call. And if everything goes well after that, there may be a decision between both parties that it's good to work together and then um you'll be in the Paul Ker wealth management family. All right, Paul, thanks so much for your time today and thank you for being here everyone.