BITCOIN'S MISSION TO LIQUIDATE ALL SHORTS | THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU NEED TO LOOK FOR

Ajouté : 2026-05-08

[00:00:02][music] >> Yo, what is going on everybody? Welcome back to another Kev Capital video where we spend some time pulling back the curtain on some of the most important charts in the market and what it means for you. Before we jump into the video today, if you enjoy the content, please like, subscribe, and leave a comment below. And also, do not forget to check the links in the description below where you can visit patreon.com/kevcapital and trade, invest, and analyze the markets with me on a daily basis. We are currently running a 50% off promo for all new members for the first month. And with that being said, let's jump right into it. Today, I want to provide an update to the countertrend rally on Bitcoin that we are seeing. And boy oh boy, starting off the month of May hot.

[00:00:52]Bitcoin is moving back to the upside after getting rejected from the top end of the 74 to 81k range, holding support down at 74k and the daily 100 EMA, and now pretty aggressively bouncing back up to the upside to test the top of the bear flag pattern, to test the golden pocket, maybe even test the 786 at 81k.

[00:01:12]Maybe if we get really frisky, we'll come up to the 82 to 83 to 87k range, right? Which consists of the two the two 200 EMA and SMA on the daily and the higher time frame 0.5 fib.

[00:01:25]And fill that CME gap that we've been talking about at 83.7k. Now, we're not at that point yet. Let's not jump to conclusions. Let's focus on the 74 to 81k zone first. That is major resistance. But all in all, if Bitcoin were to keep pushing higher, if we were to keep liquidating short positions that keep coming in on this move higher, then yes, right? There is major major resistance up ahead. And and I want to kind of reaffirm that, right? Cuz let's just talk about what have I been talking about, right? In detail, right? We want to play this game kind of slow. be smart about it. Don't want to jump to conclusions. Back in February, even up until, you know, March, I talked about, "Listen, Bitcoin's going to have another countertrend rally in the late winter and early spring, during tax season."

[00:02:08]Okay? It's very common, bull markets, bear markets, for Bitcoin to have these nice countertrend moves in the late winter or early spring, or just continuation moves higher in a bull market in that time before we then enter into summer.

[00:02:22]Typically, in the summer, you show weakness. This is not my opinion, it's just facts, right? You can look back over the last 6 years in Bitcoin.

[00:02:30]We have some moments in the summertime, but typically, you're pretty weak in the summertime. I don't know why. People go on vacation, the algos don't want to play play ball. I don't know what it is, but that's just the way it works. And all of that's coming true, right? We are getting that countertrend rally.

[00:02:44]Bitcoin's up 30-plus percent off of its lows at 59k.

[00:02:48]With that being said, what do I talk about that's so important?

[00:02:53]A countertrend rally within a higher time frame downtrend is one thing. But if you want to confirm that something different is happening, if you say, "Screw that four-year cycle where Bitcoin has to go down all mid-term year and bottom out in Q4. I want to go up now. I want Bitcoin to do something different." What needs to occur beyond what we already know? Because I don't want to jump the gun too far, all right?

[00:03:15]I'm pretty happy with the way things are playing out right now because it's in line with what I thought was going to happen, so it makes me feel pretty good about myself. But at the end of the day, we also need to be ready for if and when something different happens.

[00:03:28]Now, what would that look like? And I talk about this in every video. If Bitcoin were to just show super big strength, we get expansionary momentum in a more durable fashion than what we're getting now. We get more net money inflow. We get more whale money flow. We get all of those ingredients that we need to really show a bear market breakout. Right? Now, we're not currently getting all of that now. And we're getting a little bit of money flow today, but really nothing substantial that you would get in a typical bear market breakout. But with that said, if we started to get that, Bitcoin would blast up through these resistances, break the key daily moving averages, which are holding us in a higher time frame downtrend, come up to the 97 to 100k zone.

[00:04:11]All in all, very likely to get rejected up there. That would be this high and also just major major resistance structurally. The two-day 200 EMA and SMA are in that zone. You know the deal.

[00:04:21]That's big resistance. But then what you would do is you would come back down, retest these moving averages, which would start to curl back up to the upside, okay? And you would hold them as support and these major fib levels, right? And then you would start to ascend back higher. That would be your confirmation, folks, that the bear market is very likely over. Bitcoin is starting a new higher time frame uptrend, and there ain't nothing anyone can do about it. Bitcoin would be becoming the honey badger at that point.

[00:04:51]You don't want to fight a trend once it changes. Why would that What is supportive of that? And let me just put that back. Look how, for example, the last bear market works, right? You have this staircase pattern down. You constantly get rejected from your daily moving averages and the 21-week EMA and 20-week SMA. Right? You have these classic staircase pattern to the lows.

[00:05:10]Eventually, you come down, you make your final low, you form some nice divergences on the weekly time frame or whatever. You don't have to do that, but you get the point. And then look at the force you break out with, right? You break out of these moving averages with force.

[00:05:25]You come back and retest them. That is a major changing point. That is a major trend change right there. The evidence is there for you, right? You're doing the opposite of what you did during the bear market. Now, you're coming up and holding key levels. The trend has officially changed, right? The trend had officially changed at 21 to 19k.

[00:05:45]Okay? Back in the last bear market. And then you could have rode Bitcoin for the next 3 years all the way to 125,000 or wherever it topped out at exactly.

[00:05:53]That's what you would be wanting to look for here. That's what you need to happen, okay? So, for the people out there who are desiring for that to happen, I'm showing you exactly what you need to see in order for that to be confirmed. So, we haven't done that yet.

[00:06:06]So, don't get crazy, right? Don't be going leverage long like crazy. It's okay to accumulate spot positions. Just make sure your portfolio management is appropriate in case this is just a countertrend rally within a higher time frame downtrend and we do end up getting rejected and legging lower in the summertime. Just make sure that your portfolio management is okay. All right?

[00:06:24]If you're inching into the market, I totally support that at this point in the year.

[00:06:29]If Bitcoin breaks out higher and comes back and retests, then you can get more aggressive. But at the same time, just remember, if this didn't work out, this rally, if this putters out at some point and we head lower, you still need to have some, you know, cash on the sidelines to buy lower prices. So again, it's that middle line, right? You have to be able to walk the line. And I get it, it's not that easy to do. Portfolio management is not an easy thing to learn. It's totally separate from learning analysis. But you have to learn to walk that line. You know, make it Now, this is like a good piece of advice.

[00:07:00]Allocate into the market what makes you able to sleep at night comfortably, okay? If you're starting to get knots in your stomach, you probably have too much money in the market. Or if you're feeling FOMO, you might not have enough money in the market, okay? So, use And it's crazy to say this, right? But use your emotions a little bit to help you determine in terms of capital allocation where you're currently at in terms of your weighting into Bitcoin or whatever else you're holding. But also, it'll help you, you know, risk manage properly. And that's the most important thing, managing your risk, managing your capital properly so that you have exposure to the upside, but that you don't get creamed if you go to the downside, okay?

[00:07:38]With that said, what am I looking at here, right? I've been talking about this in our private group over the last few days, particularly yesterday. Look at all the shorts, folks. These They just keep shorting nonstop. This was all built up over the last few days, by the way. This was not here a couple days ago. So, people are shorting heavily.

[00:07:56]So, there is a ton There's billions of dollars in short liquidations from current price, it was around 76k, I said in the group, to 81.5k.

[00:08:05]Tons of short liquidations, okay?

[00:08:07]Billions of dollars. And And I would not be surprised at this point if Bitcoin goes up and liquidates those shorts.

[00:08:12]People just keep shorting what they believe to be the top of the countertrend rally. And with that said, they're just going to keep getting ripped because there is momentum in Bitcoin at the moment. There is also downside momentum in USDT dominance. So, with that said, though, we are also building up a lot of long liquidations to the to the downside. What have I been talking about?

[00:08:32]We haven't really had big net spot inflows, okay? A lot of this move is leverage driven. A lot of this move is not seeing big expansionary momentum on the indicators. We're not seeing a lot of net money inflow. We're not seeing a lot of whale money inflow. Now, can that change? Of course it can change, and I monitor it 24/7. But we're not seeing it at the moment. A lot of this is leverage driven, which is why you're seeing constant liquidation hunts currently to the upside, punishing the short positions who think they're about to catch the peako top and then a move down to 40,000, right? They need to get that out of their head and start focusing on what the momentum indicators look like in the short term. Because if you just keep shorting over and over and over again while Bitcoin has some decent momentum on 3-day, 1-week time frames, you're just going to keep getting liquidated, right? So, um with that said, that's what I've been eyeing.

[00:09:20]That's what's currently playing out here. And I expect fully, right? And I do think that this will all get swiped at some point. And now, remember something also, it is worth noting here, too, that if we look at the CME chart on Bitcoin, right? Something else we've been talking about. Look at the gap, folks, right? We'll go to the 4-hour time frame. There is a massive gap at 83.7k. One of the biggest gaps I've ever seen, okay? So, this is all This is on the table, right? This can absolutely get filled. I mean, you're already up there, right? Sometimes it's going to it's going to act as a magnet. So, um keep an eye on that 83.7k CME gap. It is worth noting you do have some CME gaps to the downside at 697 and 671.

[00:10:01]So we'll have to keep an eye on those in the future, but for now look at the size of this gap, right? Very very big.

[00:10:06]Sometimes these act as a magnet when you get very very close to them.

[00:10:09]Um what else do I want to talk about here just real quick so that you can see is the USDT dominance chart, right?

[00:10:15]Because this is probably and I'm just waiting, man. I'm just waiting for the day that I hope I get to repost um the video from back in February, right? Cuz what did I What have I been talking about, right? What did I talk about when I said there's going to be a countertrend rally?

[00:10:29]Well, I said well look at USDT dominance and let's just zoom out for a second.

[00:10:33]Right? We'll just stick to the daily time frame. USDT dominance was trapped in a zone for 2 and 1/2 years. This was our bull market essentially, right? USDT dominance had distribution. It broke down. We had our bull market where it ranged in this zone for 2 and 1/2 years.

[00:10:47]We bottomed out. We ferociously broke out to the upside.

[00:10:51]We hit our previous all-time high resistance zone. Well, you know, this wasn't rocket science to say I think Bitcoin's going to get a countertrend rally. USDT dominance was at its previous all-time high. Some of the 3-day, the weekly momentum indicators were slowing down. We just weren't getting money flow yet, okay? So that was the one thing that kind of kept it up there for a while.

[00:11:09]Now you know, fast forward a couple months, that countertrend rally is occurring.

[00:11:14]But what did I say specifically in that video? And if it happens, you best believe I'm going to replay it because it would really have been a great great call. I said I do believe there's going to be a countertrend rally in the late winter, early spring. What I think would make sense is typically when This is regular technical analysis. When you break out of a massive range after spending 2 and 1/2 years in it, typically you come back and retest it as support to see if it'll be new support. Okay? That makes perfect sense, right? You come back to that major zone that was broken out of to test it as new support, right? You give it the kiss of death.

[00:11:49]All right? Now if that were to hold as major support, then you would get a bounce back to the upside. Bitcoin would eventually leg lower in the summertime, form some type of bullish divergence.

[00:11:58]USDT dominance would form some type of bearish divergence. That would be the true low and then from there we would, you know, get ready for a new bull run.

[00:12:06]If USDT dominance were to come down and break the golden pocket, break the 200 EMA and SMA on the daily, come back up and retest it, knock its head on it, and fail to get back above, well now you've reclaimed the bull market zone and I would expect higher prices for Bitcoin.

[00:12:21]Something different would be occurring in the mid-term year. So again, similar to Bitcoin, right? We have the scenario to Can you break above these key moving averages? Can you break above key resistance levels, come back and retest it, and confirm a new trend? The same goes for USDT dominance. This is why it's the best second pair of eyes in the market. Currently, right? And I hope this plays out. I really do cuz it would be great. But you are forming what looks to be a little bit of a bear flag pattern here on USDT dominance. If you were to just And this is on the shorter time frames, but if you were to just measure this, guess where it gets you?

[00:12:55]Right into my zone. Right into the 6.8 to 6.6% zone, which is the higher time frame golden pocket, the 200 EMA and SMA on the daily, and obviously structured what could be support now, right? That used to be resistance. It's amazing how technical analysis works, folks. I'm going to say that I still think this is going to play out. So we'll just have to see. Now what would that coincide with Bitcoin? I think that would coincide with Bitcoin hitting those, you know, 83 to 87K zone, okay? So we'll just have to keep an eye on that. But I don't want the video to run too long, folks, right?

[00:13:27]We went over everything that I'm looking at. We went over everything we've been talking about. We went over everything that I'm currently looking at. We went over the USDT dominance chart, which I also think is extremely important when conducting analysis on the crypto market. With that being said, that's what I'm looking for in the short term.

[00:13:43]Liquidate those short positions.

[00:13:45]If we're going to get super If we're going to get more bullish, come up and test the 200 EMA and SMA and maybe even the 0.5 fib. That would coincide with USDT dominance hitting the zone that I spoke about, okay?

[00:13:56]That's what I'm looking for in the short term if that is to occur. And then obviously you know what to look for from a broader perspective. If we're starting something new here, what you would want to see Bitcoin do and what you would want to see USDT dominance do. And then if we're not starting something new and this is just a countertrend move that's just getting everyone excited, then you know what Bitcoin will do and it'll eventually get rejected in here and end up legging lower into the summertime.

[00:14:19]All right. So those are all the scenarios. That's how I'm looking at it.

[00:14:22]Those are the the evidence to back all of it up and and I hope this video helped you guys out. So if it did, again, please like, comment, subscribe, and don't forget to check the links in the description below. You guys all have a nice day. Peace out.

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