SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY?

Added: 2026-05-25

[00:00:01]Good day, legends. It's been a little while since I posted one of these. We've got FOMC in about 10 hours time, which has typically resulted in a sell-off of Bitcoin. So, I think it's pretty crucial where we're at in the market to get one of these out now. So, look, essentially, so far what we've seen is BTC following this move I posted in March to the T. All right, so you can see where we are at the top of this A wave, pull back for the B wave, and then ultimately a C wave up here. Now, this is typically a corrective move, which would result in further downside.

[00:00:31]Now, if you have a look, this has played out almost exactly as anticipated during March.

[00:00:36]Now, coming into fundamentals, which I know everyone can get around, whether you're interested in charts or not, looking at May, during US midterm election years, how has Bitcoin performed?

[00:00:48]Well, 2014, we broke down after a consolidation and then continued a bear market into late 2014.

[00:00:55]2018, we got a major rejection after a Q1 recovery, uh which led into capitulation towards 3K.

[00:01:02]2022, we had a relief rally, much like what we've just seen, and then collapsed into the Luna / FTX cascade. All right, so May in every midterm of year, all right, election year, has kicked off the biggest sell-off of the cycle. All right, and that is exactly where we're at right now. Coupled with what I'm seeing, obviously, here on BTC.

[00:01:22]Looking at Fed chairs, what has happened every time we've seen a new Fed chair?

[00:01:26]Uh BTC fell roughly 80 to 85% peak to trough over the following year when we had Yellen.

[00:01:33]Uh Powell comes in as Fed chair, we fell roughly 70 to 85%.

[00:01:39]And now Powell's reappointed for the second term, and we kept falling another 60% after Powell's re-election. So, we've got two macro indicators historically with a 100% success rate that have seen BTC nose dive.

[00:01:53]All right, coupled with, obviously, this ABC playing out, and now we want to have a look at some other charts to see if we can further support this theory. All right, now looking at USDT.D, we can see what happens when USDT.D sees high volume highs and high volume lows, all right?

[00:02:07]It typically shows you money being positioned. Whenever the market puts in a high volume high, all right, you'll typically see big absorption and the market starts to reverse. What it shows you is money heavy money being positioned at a level.

[00:02:19]So, we've got this high volume high here and we trended down all through these levels, all right? So, I think this has been last like 5 months we've sort of trended down for.

[00:02:28]And now we've seen a high volume low.

[00:02:30]All right, so like I said in previous post, you see what happens when a high volume high gets put in. What do you think happens when a high volume low put gets put in?

[00:02:38]And so, BTC and USDT.D for the most part both showing us very um bearish outlook coupled with fundamentals. Now, looking at NAS, all right? As you know, BTC is very heavily tied to tech stocks.

[00:02:50]I said um made a post on Twitter um couple of weeks ago saying I was looking for NAS to top around 29K. Now, the reason for that is because of what's known as the terminus. So, if you look at a downtrend, what you want to find is the last leg of money that swept liquidity before the reversal. So, if you have a look, you can see we've got all these relatively equal lows here. They've swept all of this liquidity. So, we want to go to the top of this move and we want to pull our retracement fibs and we want to take it from the top of the move to the bottom.

[00:03:20]Now, what this will give you is what's known as the terminus. So, you can see up here we've got this 4 3 here.

[00:03:25]Now, most professional traders aren't going to touch something within a certain standard deviation away from the terminus. All right, away from the uh leg of money that swept the liquidity, all right? So, this is known as the terminus. This is where majority of professional traders are going to stay out. They're not going to be buying anymore because of the massive deviation from the original broken trend.

[00:03:50]All right, you'd be at the very least currency to prove that. So, we've got NAS, which has created no strong support on this whole leg up whatsoever, sitting at the terminus as BTC is showing these bearish signs, as USDT.D is showing these high volume lows.

[00:04:03]As we've got very fundamental bearish catalyst with a 100% historic success rate.

[00:04:09]And last but not least, we want to look at DXY. Now, when money when DXY sells off, right? As it has been since January 2025, what you will typically see is money leave the US dollar and rotate into assets, all right? Because it doesn't make sense to be in a devaluing US dollar when you can make money elsewhere.

[00:04:26]Now, when the Dixie retraces, what that typically shows you is that money is leaving US dollars and moving into assets.

[00:04:34]So, we want to have a look at the Dixie and see, okay, are they just going to sit down here and then immediately break out? Have they finished the retrace?

[00:04:40]What's going on? So, what I want to do is I want to take my standard fibs.

[00:04:44]All right?

[00:04:45]I'm going to see have we even retraced the 382?

[00:04:48]And we haven't, all right? So, because we haven't had any kind of a retrace of the 382, this has been making me keep an eye on the Dixie for a very long time, all right? Because you really want to see that pullback at least into the 382 retrace to tell you that this move has retraced and we are going to see further downside. Because in order for these assets to get another big rally, you really want to see the Dixie break down.

[00:05:08]You want to see money leaving US dollars and moving to the Dixie, and we haven't had that, all right? We haven't had a proper retrace on the Dixie yet.

[00:05:14]Now, looking at this structure below, okay, I'm know that I'm looking for some kind of higher time frame uh retracement in here. All right? So, when are they going to do that?

[00:05:25]Well, if I have a look here on the daily chart, I can see we've got a very clean five waves to the upside. All right?

[00:05:32]We've got 1 2 3 4 5. All right? We get the ABCs to the downside.

[00:05:39]And now we want to see are they starting to continue to push up?

[00:05:42]All right? So, what I'm looking for here is has this shown me an intention to push higher?

[00:05:49]So if you look down here at lows, what I can see is an ending diagonal to tell us that they are finished going down.

[00:05:55]And now we've got our first five waves up, 1 2 3 4 5.

[00:05:59]All right, so we can see that the Dixie is showing intent to rally higher. It's very likely intent coupled with where everything else is at on the charts.

[00:06:06]So if that's the case, then what that means is that this is an A wave, this is a B wave, and now we should see them putting in a C wave.

[00:06:13]So if I want to find targets for the Dixie, I run it from the lows to the highs of this leg of money, then to the pullback.

[00:06:20]And this will give me fib targets for where the market's likely to retrace to.

[00:06:24]Now if you have a look, these targets align very nicely with our 618 and our 50 fib. So what this tells me is that the Dixie is likely to push back up into these highs.

[00:06:31]Doesn't mean the Dixie is likely to come all the way back up here.

[00:06:35]All right, so if the Dixie's response Dixie's selling off, so all of these assets rally, what do you think a Dixie rally is going to do? Now I want to make it clear that this is also very bad for metals, all right? Typically if the dollar's strong, metals become weak. So this isn't just NAS and BTC and risk-on assets, this is all assets. But the implication is here that the money will leave assets and go into the US dollar.

[00:06:57]And so what we pretty much want to see is five waves up through here to give us our C wave.

[00:07:01]And you know, I I will humor buying assets, man, once we get this ABC. I will be having a look at the rest of the market, and this is really where I'll be having a look at shopping again. Because if the Dixie gets a breakdown through here, then we're going to see a big fat rally uh for assets again. All right, now I don't know what the macro environment's going to look like.

[00:07:18]Obviously everyone's talking about this recession.

[00:07:21]Uh but I do know from experience that typically when something seems very obvious and the whole market's talking about it, it is usually an unlikely thing to happen. So look, all of this combined, all right, you've got bearish fundamentals, this ABC playing it from March playing out to the T, we've got USDT.D putting these high volume lows, we've got NAS sitting at their terminus where I'm expecting them to dump.

[00:07:42]We've got BTC, big reaction from that CME gap, and like I said, that's um you know, that ABC structure playing out. Got the Dixie showing intent to rally higher.

[00:07:51]Now, the only thing the only thing that is giving me some kind of hope of a more recent bear market than um bull market than um than even what we've seen in past years. Looks I mean, honestly, we're following the halving cycle to the T. BTC topped to the day uh or like one one day later, I think, than the previous halving cycle. And now we're getting our made up. To me, uh it does look like the halving cycle is the most valid thesis here. Um now, like I said, the only really macro bullish case scenario I can see uh is if ETH comes into this one fib and we see ETH BTC ETH starts to outperform BTC.

[00:08:29]And typically, that is indicative of an alt season. All right? So, a level I have my eye on uh is 0.02439.

[00:08:38]Outside of that, man, I do have a very bearish macro bias.

[00:08:43]Now, in terms of current price action, uh I'd be looking at one of these two levels on BTC. Either this balanced price range through here or just this push up above these highs.

[00:08:57]All right?

[00:08:58]Uh these are the two areas I'll be looking for shorts. Now, looking at USDT.D, you can see that these guys have been in a diagonal.

[00:09:05]All right? You can see we've got this diagonal here. Now, very likely um one So, one of two things are going to happen here, all right? Based on um based on this structure, I see the like an ABC.

[00:09:16]Uh or we're just going to see this diagonal, and then we're going to uh see further downside, which would be bullish for crypto. All right?

[00:09:23]That doesn't align with what I'm seeing on the fundamentals. It doesn't align with what I'm seeing on the macro. It doesn't align with what I'm seeing on every single chart. So, what I think is more likely is that one of these two levels is going to hold as support, and we're going to launch. We're going to see a massive sell-off in crypto. This is what I'm anticipating, man. These are the two levels that I'm looking for shorts at. Want to see some kind of reaction from these two levels.

[00:09:44]Uh if not, obviously we're just going to play our straight through them. So, all I'm looking for, man, is some kind of confirmation coming in through these levels on USDT.D coupled with uh these levels on Bitcoin, all right? These two levels we've got on Bitcoin, this red line here, this gray box here. I mean, it's pretty simple.

[00:10:01]You know, if you have a look at things like SOL as well, um these guys, if you're looking at a higher time frame, they do look to be putting in their own uh sort of diagonal structure, all right? So, if you go one, so if we went one, two, three, four, five. All right, so SOL, you know, very likely putting in their own sort of aggressive five-wave structure to the downside.

[00:10:22]We'll be looking uh at SOL at about $88.60 for shorts. Man, all of this stuff it it it has got some pretty solid alignment here. Breaking down to lower time frames, it it's exactly where I'd look at finding an entry for, all right?

[00:10:33]So, all I'm looking for, man, um you know, if SOL is a I mean, I think it's very unlikely they get that. But, like I said, you want to look for confluence. When USDT.D is in one of these gray boxes and SOL and BTC is simultaneously at one of their levels, you want to look for that uh reversal and uh I'll be hitting this trade with a hammer, to be honest. I think this may be the last chance to catch a big fat short down.

[00:10:55]Like I said, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

[00:10:56]But, uh I trade with data. There's and everything is is sort of pointing me in the the same direction here. So, look, any questions, guys, I will be in Discord. Um you want to trade this with me, you trade this with the team, send me a message, whatever.

[00:11:09]Take care and good luck.