Commodities Update: Technical Analysis: STRONG DXY AND YIELDS TODAY

Ajouté : 2026-05-16

[00:00:01]Hey everyone. Hopefully you're having a good day. My name's Andy. My channel's Finding Value.

[00:00:06]Today we're going to do our daily technical analysis update of commodities, work our way through the dollar, yields, precious metals, and commodities ETFs that I follow.

[00:00:14]I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together, and if you need help with anything, check out finding-value.com.

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[00:00:37]All right, let's dive in see what's going on today.

[00:00:40]Uh we're seeing momentum pick up on a stronger dollar and stronger yields.

[00:00:47]Uh which those generally move together.

[00:00:51]So, I'm still in the camp that this can go higher.

[00:00:53]Uh this this looks good to move on up.

[00:00:56]We're seeing that momentum get generated here and I mean, it looks good to go higher for the dollar. The the DXY at least. And what that means is it doesn't mean that the DXY is going up in real terms.

[00:01:10]It just means that the DXY is going up against the yen and maybe the euro or whatever else it's being compared against.

[00:01:20]Uh so, they're all falling like a rock.

[00:01:23]Yields are up. The two-year yield is up 1.6. It is flying higher uh as we expected with this breakout here to the upside.

[00:01:35]Yields look like they're going to further increase to the upside here.

[00:01:39]Uh and the momentum picking up a little bit.

[00:01:43]10-year's up 2.6% today.

[00:01:47]Big breakout there with yields to the upside. Looking good for a continued move to the upside. And I mean, that's kind of what we were thinking the entire time anyway.

[00:01:59]We broke out of this pattern here to the upside and usually it's just a matter of time before the big candlesticks start to show up, like today.

[00:02:09]The 30-year was up 1.8%. That's also broken to the upside and I would suspect that this is going to continue higher. Uh we could see this go up substantially higher.

[00:02:21]Uh I mean, when I mean substantially higher, I'm talking you know, something like this uh is easily possible.

[00:02:30]And that doesn't mean we'll stop there.

[00:02:32]I'm getting like 9%.

[00:02:36]We could go above that potentially.

[00:02:39]Uh and uh yeah, that's what I'll say there.

[00:02:43]I'll just say I'll leave it at that. We could go a lot higher.

[00:02:47]Uh TLT bond prices are breaking lower.

[00:02:50]Uh that was what I thought was going to occur. Um I didn't know it was going to occur, but my guess was that we were going to head lower and that we could potentially break down. I know a lot of people were in the camp that they was going to do one of these things.

[00:03:06]That sure doesn't look like it.

[00:03:08]We are breaking to the downside today. There it is.

[00:03:12]That doesn't mean that we don't get a uh move higher here in the short term where we kind of come up like this and then roll over.

[00:03:20]Something like that could easily occur.

[00:03:23]Uh but we broke through some resistance today.

[00:03:26]Yield shooting higher.

[00:03:28]Bond prices shooting lower.

[00:03:30]>> [clears throat] >> And that's what we've got going on here.

[00:03:34]Is that breakdown.

[00:03:37]The two and the 10, we had the 10-year go up more than the two-year. So, we had yield curve un-inversion, but it's with yields flying higher.

[00:03:44]I don't I wouldn't take this too seriously uh for a legit move lower.

[00:03:51]It's just that the yield curve is moving up on the long end faster than the short end.

[00:03:56]And that the curve uh I'll just say adjusts downward.

[00:04:02]It uninverts as the long end comes up.

[00:04:06]That is inflation expectations getting priced into the curve.

[00:04:11]TYX/TNX ratio is falling and that's again that's yield curve inversion because the 10-year went up a lot more than the 30-year.

[00:04:20]10-year went up the most today. Then >> [clears throat] >> it was the 30-year, then it was the 2-year.

[00:04:26]So, gold was down $135 an ounce. Been a little bit of a pullback there. We're still in this big consolidation.

[00:04:34]Is this the beginning move of a lower move? I wouldn't bet on it. I'd bet that gold was going to go higher here.

[00:04:39]Soon. Would be my bet, my best guess.

[00:04:43]As yields start to approach 5% and exceed it both on the 10 and 30-year we could see gold break higher not lower.

[00:04:53]That's what I'm looking for.

[00:04:54]Silver >> [clears throat] >> down about 10 10% $8.6 an ounce. Pretty big down day.

[00:05:03]But, it could just be a return move retest move here.

[00:05:07]We've got platinum down 5% too. Probably just a return retest move would be my guess. And palladium was down 1.7.

[00:05:15]>> [clears throat] >> And that's down there. Pretty cheap actually.

[00:05:19]Almost kind of doing a double bottom here before maybe we move higher.

[00:05:25]XAU/Gold ratio we saw that the mining companies were sold off quite hard today.

[00:05:31]Down about almost 5% a little bit less than 5% but yeah, we're just kind of pulling back here. Maybe it's creating some pattern underneath resistance before a large move higher. I'm in the higher camp. I am.

[00:05:45]Uh I think this will eventually break its way on up, cuz I think gold and silver bonds really start to take off here.

[00:05:52]Eventually, I'm not saying in the short term, but eventually money's going to start to flow into precious metals.

[00:06:00]Uh just like it was before.

[00:06:02]Uh GDX was down seven-ish percent, so kind of a stronger selling pressure day today. And again, I still think we're in the consolidation type environment. I I don't think we're going to fly higher in the short term. That's just me.

[00:06:16]I kind of guessing here.

[00:06:18]We've got GDX down as well, and then we've got SILJ down and I'm just looking at kind of this pattern here. It's in all of it.

[00:06:26]And we're kind of just chopping.

[00:06:28]You know, like the lows are kind of I don't know. It seems kind of messy. Put it that way. There's no structure to it where I'm like, man, this looks really good and we're going to break this clear structure.

[00:06:40]Crude oil is slightly higher, but basically flat today. Uh I do think this is going to go way up.

[00:06:48]And I'm sure they're in there trying to hold this down with everything they've got.

[00:06:52]Because rates and crude oil generally move together.

[00:06:58]GTF gas up about 6%. I think this is going to break out of that resistance level right at about 55-ish and rip.

[00:07:09]I mean rip.

[00:07:12]Um we've got natural gas in America up 2.6% or so, and that looks good. It's making higher highs, higher lows, looking pretty pretty solid today. Looking pretty solid today.

[00:07:24]And boy, XOP, yeah, you know me, up almost 3%, looking pretty solid today.

[00:07:29]Um I think this is going to fly here, guys. That's that's what I think.

[00:07:33]Shoulder, head, shoulder, neckline.

[00:07:35]We've got a nice little consolidation going on, and then it will just keep going higher.

[00:07:40]Why? Because the bond market agrees with me.

[00:07:43]I'm not saying it has to do it tomorrow.

[00:07:45]I'm just saying or Monday.

[00:07:47]I'm just saying the trend is up. The trend.

[00:07:52]OIH down slightly today, but the trend going to be higher here.

[00:07:57]We've broken out of the base and we are extending upward.

[00:08:01]Uh it doesn't mean we can't go down or chop sideways in the short term. You know, these patterns like this.

[00:08:09]But it looks good to go higher.

[00:08:12]Newcastle coal futures up 2.32 with natural gas and I do think this will break with natural gas through that resistance much like TTF is doing.

[00:08:22]The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust down a little bit.

[00:08:25]Still chopping around here going sideways much like the physical uranium price chopping sideways.

[00:08:32]Uh looks looks fine. Looks fine to go higher.

[00:08:35]Not nothing bad here to see.

[00:08:37]Uh URA down 4.9 and some of these they trade like equities. They trade with the overall tech sector. Uh but that's pulled back today uh across the board in uranium equities.

[00:08:48]Uh but you know, I'm I'm not I'm not bearish yet. Not yet.

[00:08:53]We've got kind of all this going on.

[00:08:54]Now, if we start to create upward facing patterns or something, we don't have that. So, we're still chopping around.

[00:09:01]Uh URNM same thing and same thing with URNJ.

[00:09:05]We are pulling back a little bit in the short term, but uh uh uh uh my mind hasn't changed anything yet.

[00:09:11]Uh nickel's down 2.6 and that's still above support.

[00:09:15]That blue line going across is that support region and we could come back and do a retest at 1730-ish.

[00:09:22]Copper's down 5%. That's broken out of its resistance support zone.

[00:09:30]And we could come back and bounce on top of it.

[00:09:36]COPX down 7%. Pretty strong selling pressure in the copper equities today.

[00:09:42]But again, I We're in a bull market of commodities.

[00:09:46]Could we see rates go way up in a potential man, I if rates go up that means you've got inflation in the system.

[00:09:55]And copper could go up during that. So, we'll see what happens here.

[00:09:59]Lithium's down 3.35. Yeah, a little bit of a pullback, not a topping pattern.

[00:10:03]RMX down 3.34.

[00:10:06]Back to some support area.

[00:10:09]It's not a topping pattern though.

[00:10:12]E- even if well, yeah, it does look a little bit little bearish here. We got some bearish engulfing candlesticks there. I mean, maybe we pull back.

[00:10:20]Difficult to say. I'm not doing anything here. Just going to watch it.

[00:10:25]Day long is what I'm doing.

[00:10:27]Iron ore up slightly.

[00:10:30]Uh there it is, but we're above critical support.

[00:10:33]Which is that white line there.

[00:10:35]I still looks good to go higher.

[00:10:38]Aluminum down 2.4%. Probably doing a retest on top of this, which it looks like it's doing. A little bit of a retest on this breakout.

[00:10:45]Baltic Dry Index up slightly. Still looking good to go higher.

[00:10:50]Soybeans down 1.3.

[00:10:53]That still looks fine to me. We haven't created a a lower low or anything like that. So, that's what we have to look for.

[00:11:02]Wheat down 3.3. Still looks okay. And corn down 2.5, but still above support.

[00:11:09]Uh so, it's we haven't created a lower low. There's And then we've broken out of these patterns pretty recently.

[00:11:15]So, I still think the path of least resistance is higher, but that doesn't mean that in the short term we do something like that or whatever it is.

[00:11:26]Emerging markets down 3.43. And these are the more sensitive uh uh asset classes to dollar, stronger dollar and stronger yields.

[00:11:35]They pull back 3.43 there. Moves down about 1% at support.

[00:11:41]KRE's down 1.14 and these are going to be sensitive to that.

[00:11:45]They're pulling back a little bit. They don't look horrible. I mean, they've got little wicks at the bottom there.

[00:11:50]It's not just flying lower like people are running to safety.

[00:11:54]XHB down quite a bit about 4%. Now, this could pull back if we get a much stronger 10-year yield move and it's it's it was moving today.

[00:12:04]So, yeah, that could pull back.

[00:12:06]And the Russell's down 2.44 and we could see that pull back quite a bit. The S&P's down 1.24 and I wouldn't touch any of these with anything.

[00:12:18]This is I mean, we're in overvalued territory with yields breaking higher right at the threshold of 5%.

[00:12:25]If I were to guess, this is just a huge bear bull trap.

[00:12:31]It's a bull trap. It it's going to suck in retail while the big boys just offload their shares to retail.

[00:12:38]NASDAQ down 1.5 and even if it melts up more, I'm not I'm not being here.

[00:12:43]Don't like it.

[00:12:45]Dow Jones transportation up 0.4, that's at support. Looking decent.

[00:12:49]But to grab some support here.

[00:12:52]XLI down 1.8 or so, but that's still pretty much almost at all-time highs.

[00:12:57]Real close.

[00:12:58]Bitcoin down 2.84. I don't know if Bitcoin's going to like stronger yields. So, we're going to we're going to see what happens here.

[00:13:07]Uh we're going to see what happens to the NASDAQ and these cryptos when yields continue to go up.

[00:13:14]This is this is this is the big question mark. I want to know what these do.

[00:13:18]I think they're going to go down.

[00:13:20]But I don't know for sure. We'll see.

[00:13:23]Ethereum's down 2.6.

[00:13:25]This it's not a ton of selling pressure.

[00:13:27]There is some. I mean today is a little bit, but I really want to see these roll over with rates going up.

[00:13:34]I don't own any of this, so I'm just watching, making comments.

[00:13:39]MicroStrategy down 5%. That still looks okay though. Doesn't look bad.

[00:13:44]And the VIX is up about almost 7%.

[00:13:48]But still well within control of historical box standards here.

[00:13:53]And then we saw the commodity currencies all go They all pulled back against the dollar today.

[00:13:59]So that's what we've got for today. Give me a thumbs up for the content, subscribe to the channel, subscribe to the website if you like.

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[00:15:43]But that's all I've got for today, guys.

[00:15:45]We'll catch you next time. See you.