Trump Approved a Rival Pipeline to Undercut Canada — Carney's Response Is the Right One

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Good evening, Canada.

[00:00:01]I'm Walter Smith and this is Canada tonight.

[00:00:04]This week Bloomberg published a story with a headline that every Canadian who cares about this country's energy future needs to read carefully.

[00:00:12]Trump approved a US oil pipeline plan that rivals the Canadian project backed by Carney.

[00:00:18]Let that sink in.

[00:00:20]While Canada is working to build a West Coast pipeline to ship Alberta oil to Asia, giving Canada direct access to world markets and independence from the American pricing system, the Trump administration has approved a competing American pipeline project designed to move US oil independently.

[00:00:38]And Bloomberg added one more fact that makes this story even more significant.

[00:00:43]Despite the trade war, despite the tariffs, despite all of the tensions in the Canada-US relationship over the past year, the United States and Canada are growing more energy interdependent than ever.

[00:00:56]More interdependent. Even as the political relationship faces a serious strain. Even as tariffs pile up. Even as both sides try to reduce their dependence on each other.

[00:01:07]The physical reality of North American energy infrastructure keeps pulling the two countries closer together.

[00:01:13]Tonight, Canada tonight breaks down exactly what Trump's rival pipeline means. Why Bloomberg's finding about growing interdependence matters enormously for Canada's CUSMA negotiations.

[00:01:26]Why Carney's strategy of diversifying Canada's energy exports to Asia has never been more important or more justified. And what Canada needs to do and is doing to ensure it captures the full value of its own resources.

[00:01:40]This is the energy story at the heart of the Canada-US relationship. Let's get into it.

[00:01:46]Let us start with the facts of what Bloomberg reported because the details matter.

[00:01:51]Bloomberg confirmed that the Trump administration has approved a US oil pipeline plan that is designed to move American oil independently in direct competition with Canada's West Coast pipeline project backed by Carney.

[00:02:04]The context is important.

[00:02:06]Canada has been working to build a new pipeline from Alberta's oil sands to the British Columbia coast.

[00:02:13]This project would allow Canada to ship approximately 1 million barrels per day of Canadian crude directly to Asian markets.

[00:02:21]It would give Canada something it has never fully had.

[00:02:25]The ability to sell its oil to multiple buyers at world prices rather than being largely limited to the American market where Canadian crude trades at a persistent discount.

[00:02:35]The Trump administration's rival pipeline approval is a direct response to this Canadian ambition.

[00:02:42]If Canada builds a Pacific export route, some of the Canadian oil that currently flows south to American refineries could be redirected to Asia.

[00:02:51]American refineries, which were specifically engineered to process Canadian heavy crude, could face supply competition.

[00:02:59]American energy security, which has come to depend on Canadian crude, could be affected. By approving a competing US pipeline, the Trump administration is signaling its preference for American energy independence over continued reliance on Canadian imports.

[00:03:15]The goal, over the long term, is to reduce American vulnerability to Canadian pipeline decisions.

[00:03:22]Bloomberg framed the situation with striking precision.

[00:03:26]Despite strained US-Canada relations under Trump's second term, when it comes to oil, the countries appear to be growing more interdependent than ever.

[00:03:35]Much to the chagrin of the Canadian government.

[00:03:38]That phrase, "much to the chagrin of the Canadian government", is worth examining carefully.

[00:03:44]Canada has been trying to reduce its energy dependence on the United States.

[00:03:48]The West Coast pipeline, the Trans Mountain expansion, LNG Canada at Kitimat.

[00:03:54]All of it designed to give Canada genuine alternatives to the American market, but the deep physical integration of the North American energy system, pipelines that cross the border, refineries built for specific crude types, supply chains built over decades, does not unwind overnight.

[00:04:12]Even as both sides move toward more independence, the current reality is one of growing interdependence.

[00:04:18]Understanding this paradox is essential to understanding Canada's energy strategy.

[00:04:23]And it is essential to understanding why Trump felt the need to approve a rival pipeline in the first place.

[00:04:29]Before we go further, let us explain something that is fundamental to understanding this story, and that many Canadians may not be fully aware of.

[00:04:38]Canadian oil is not sold at the same price as American oil.

[00:04:43]The global benchmark for oil prices is Brent crude, set by international markets based on global supply and demand.

[00:04:50]The American benchmark is West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, which typically trades close to Brent.

[00:04:57]Canadian oil, particularly the heavy crude from Alberta's oil sands, trades under a benchmark called Western Canadian Select. And Western Canadian Select almost always trades at a significant discount to WTI. Why?

[00:05:12]Because Canadian oil can only flow south into the US market.

[00:05:17]When the only buyers for your product are south of the border, those buyers have pricing power.

[00:05:22]American refiners know that Canadian producers have limited options, so they pay less.

[00:05:28]The discount varies. Sometimes it is $10 per barrel, sometimes more. But over millions of barrels per day, that discount represents billions of dollars in lost revenue for Canadian producers, Canadian workers, and Canadian royalty revenues every single year.

[00:05:46]A West Coast pipeline to the Pacific changes this equation completely.

[00:05:51]When Canadian oil can reach Asian buyers, buyers in Japan, South Korea, China, and India, who are paying world prices and are desperate for reliable supply, the discount disappears. Canadian producers can negotiate from a position of genuine competition among buyers, not captive dependence on American refineries.

[00:06:12]This is the economic case for the West Coast pipeline, not ideology, not politics, math.

[00:06:20]And Trump's rival pipeline approval is evidence that Washington understands this math perfectly.

[00:06:26]By approving an American export route, the Trump administration is attempting to give US producers their own alternatives, so that over time American refineries can source from domestic production, rather than Canadian imports, reducing the leverage that Canadian energy interdependence gives Canada at the Kuzma table.

[00:06:47]Carney sees this clearly, and his response, build the West Coast pipeline faster, expand Trans Mountain, grow LNG Canada, is the correct strategic answer.

[00:06:59]While the West Coast oil pipeline is still in the planning and approval phase, Canada already has compelling evidence that energy diversification works, and the evidence is right in front of us. Trans Mountain, the expanded pipeline that runs from Alberta to the Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, British Columbia, has been running at full capacity since the Iran war drove up Asian demand for reliable, democratic energy.

[00:07:24]890,000 barrels per day, every barrel reaching Asian markets.

[00:07:30]Asian buyers paying world prices, rather than American discount prices.

[00:07:35]The results are measurable and significant.

[00:07:37]Alberta's oil exports to Asia went from essentially zero before Trans Mountain expanded to over 800 million US dollars by October 2025.

[00:07:47]Trans Mountain is generating Canadian revenue that does not flow through American pricing systems or American pipelines.

[00:07:55]It is Canadian oil sold at world prices to customers who want it and need it.

[00:08:01]And Trans Mountain is not stopping there. The company is planning two expansions. First, using drag reducing agents, a relatively simple and low-cost technology to push approximately 10% more oil through the existing system by January 2027.

[00:08:18]Second, a larger expansion involving new pumping stations that would add 360,000 additional barrels per day with the timeline now accelerated to 2028 from the original 2029 target because of the urgency of Asian demand.

[00:08:35]Asian demand is real and growing.

[00:08:38]South Korean and Japanese energy companies are signing long-term supply agreements with Canadian producers.

[00:08:44]The Iran war disruption, which took significant volumes of Middle Eastern oil off the market, confirmed what Canada's energy advocates have been saying for years.

[00:08:54]The world needs reliable democratic energy suppliers.

[00:08:57]Canada is exactly that.

[00:09:00]LNG Canada at Kitimat is adding another dimension.

[00:09:04]Canada has gone from 19th in global LNG exports to the top 10 in just 1 year.

[00:09:09]The Enbridge Sunrise Gas Pipeline, approved last month, adds 300 million cubic feet per day of additional gas transportation capacity feeding directly into LNG Canada.

[00:09:21]That gas will be liquefied and shipped to Japan, South Korea, and other Asian markets that desperately need it.

[00:09:28]All of this diversification is happening because Canada built the infrastructure.

[00:09:33]Trans Mountain, LNG Canada, the Enbridge Sunrise pipeline.

[00:09:39]These are not promises. They are operating realities.

[00:09:43]And they prove that Carney's strategy works. Every time Canada adds Pacific export capacity, it reduces its dependence on the American market and captures more value from its own resources.

[00:09:55]The West Coast oil pipeline, when built, will be the largest single addition to Canada's Pacific energy export capacity, 1 million barrels per day, going to Asia at world prices.

[00:10:07]That is the transformation that Trump's rival pipeline was designed to prevent.

[00:10:11]Now, let us look at the broader strategic picture that Bloomberg's finding reveals.

[00:10:16]Because growing energy interdependence between Canada and the United States is actually one of Canada's most important assets at the Kuzma negotiating table.

[00:10:25]Bloomberg confirmed something that seems counterintuitive.

[00:10:29]Despite the trade war, despite the tariffs, despite Trump's effort to reduce American dependence on Canadian oil, the US and Canada are growing more energy interdependent than ever.

[00:10:40]Why?

[00:10:41]Because the physical infrastructure of North American energy is deeply integrated in ways that resist rapid change.

[00:10:48]American refineries in the Midwest were specifically engineered to process Canadian heavy crude.

[00:10:54]Replacing Canadian crude requires either retrofitting expensive refinery equipment or accepting lower efficiency and output. Neither option is quick, cheap, or politically painless for American energy communities. At the same time, American natural gas distribution networks rely heavily on Canadian supply, particularly for heating in the northern United States and increasingly for powering the AI data centers and LNG export terminals that are growing rapidly across America.

[00:11:25]As Canada's Enbridge Sunrise pipeline adds more gas transportation capacity in British Columbia, some of that gas will flow into American markets as well as Asian ones.

[00:11:36]Canada currently supplies approximately 25% of all US daily oil consumption.

[00:11:43]That number is not declining quickly even as both sides try to build independence.

[00:11:48]It reflects the deep physical reality of an integrated continental energy system.

[00:11:53]This interdependence is leverage in the CUSMA negotiations.

[00:11:57]Not in the threatening sense that Carney has rejected, but in the fundamental economic sense.

[00:12:03]Both sides need the energy relationship to function. American industries that depend on Canadian crude, American consumers who benefit from Canadian gas, American businesses that rely on continental energy integration, all of them have strong interests in a CUSMA outcome that preserves and strengthens the energy relationship.

[00:12:24]The CUSMA review is 51 days away on July 1st.

[00:12:28]Canada enters those negotiations with energy interdependence as a quiet but powerful card.

[00:12:35]Trump may be approving rival pipelines for the long term, but the long term is not the CUSMA negotiation.

[00:12:42]The negotiation is happening now when the interdependence is at its peak.

[00:12:47]Let us now look at Carney's complete energy strategy in response to all of this because it is more comprehensive and more coherent than any single new story can capture.

[00:12:58]Carney's strategy has three mutually reinforcing components. First, build Pacific export capacity as fast as possible.

[00:13:06]Trans Mountain full and expanding.

[00:13:09]Enbridge Sunrise approved and under construction this summer. LNG Canada growing and phase two planned.

[00:13:16]West Coast oil pipeline advancing toward the July 1st submission deadline.

[00:13:20]Every new barrel of export capacity to the Pacific is a barrel that Canada can sell at world prices, rather than American discount prices.

[00:13:30]Every new cubic foot of gas that flows to Asian LNG terminals is Canadian revenue that the US market does not control.

[00:13:38]Second, use the interdependence that exists as leverage at the Kuzma table.

[00:13:43]Canada does not threaten to cut off US supply.

[00:13:47]That would be harmful to both countries and is not Canada's approach.

[00:13:51]But Canada makes clear through its diversification actions that it has choices. When Asian buyers are taking everything Trans Mountain can deliver, when Japanese companies are signing long-term LNG contracts with Canadian suppliers, when the Air Asia Aerospace deal demonstrates that Canadian manufacturing has global customers, Canada's Kuzma negotiators have real credibility when they say Canada does not need to accept a bad deal.

[00:14:18]Third, invest in Canadian energy capacity through the sovereign wealth fund and the infrastructure program.

[00:14:25]The $25 billion sovereign wealth fund announced earlier this month will co-invest with allied sovereign wealth funds in exactly the kind of large, long-duration energy infrastructure that private capital alone cannot always finance.

[00:14:41]The West Coast pipeline, additional LNG terminals, critical minerals processing, all of it funded partly by Canadian public wealth, partly by allied partners, and partly by the private sector. This three-part strategy is designed to transform Canada from a country that sells raw energy at American-set prices into a country that sells processed, delivered energy at world prices to a diverse range of buyers.

[00:15:08]Trump's rival pipeline approval is a signal that Washington sees where Canada is going and would prefer Canada not get there.

[00:15:16]That is actually the strongest possible confirmation that Canada's strategy is correct.

[00:15:22]Let us close with the most urgent immediate dimension of this story.

[00:15:25]The West Coast pipeline and the July 1st deadline.

[00:15:29]Alberta has committed to submit its West Coast pipeline proposal to the federal major projects office by July 1st.

[00:15:36]That deadline is 51 days away.

[00:15:39]And the Bloomberg story about Trump's rival pipeline makes that deadline more urgent, not less.

[00:15:46]Alberta is currently evaluating three northern routes to the British Columbia coast. A carbon pricing deal between Ottawa and Alberta, a key condition of the Carney-Smith MOU, is expected to be finalized within weeks.

[00:15:59]The indigenous engagement process is underway with the federal government committed to free, prior, and informed consent.

[00:16:07]No private company has yet committed to build the West Coast pipeline. Alberta is still seeking investors.

[00:16:13]The Canada investment summit in September will be a critical moment for attracting that private capital.

[00:16:19]The UAE's $70 billion investment pledge, the Qatar FIFA deal, and the 100 sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors invited to Toronto will all be potential partners for this project.

[00:16:32]Trump's approval of a rival American pipeline is not a reason for Canada to slow down on the West Coast project. It is a reason to move faster.

[00:16:41]Every month of delay is a month that Canadian oil is sold at American discount prices. Every month of delay is a month that Asian buyers, who are hungry for Canadian supply right now, might sign long-term contracts with other suppliers.

[00:16:55]Build the pipeline.

[00:16:56]Do it properly with indigenous partnership and environmental care, but do it with urgency.

[00:17:02]Before I let you go tonight, I want to be direct about what Trump's rival pipeline approval means.

[00:17:08]It means Canada was right.

[00:17:10]Right to build Trans Mountain. Right to approve the Enbridge Sunrise pipeline.

[00:17:15]Right to pursue the West Coast Right to sign LNG supply contracts with Japan and South Korea.

[00:17:22]Right to declare Canada an energy superpower and start acting like one.

[00:17:27]If Canada's energy was not strategically important, if Canada's diversification ambitions were not a genuine threat to American pricing dominance, Trump would not need to approve a rival pipeline. The fact that Washington felt it necessary to create an American alternative tells you everything about how seriously the US government takes Canada's Pacific export ambitions.

[00:17:49]They take them seriously enough to respond.

[00:17:52]That is not a sign of Canadian weakness.

[00:17:55]It is a sign of Canadian strength.

[00:17:57]Bloomberg found that the two countries are growing more energy interdependent despite the trade war.

[00:18:03]That interdependence is Canada's leverage at Kuzma, whether Carney calls it leverage or not.

[00:18:09]And Canada's growing Pacific export capacity is the long-term insurance that ensures Canada never has to accept less than its resources are worth.

[00:18:19]Trump approved a rival pipeline.

[00:18:21]Canada's answer is simple and correct.

[00:18:24]Build ours faster.

[00:18:26]I'm Walter Smith. This is Canada tonight. Thank you for watching. Stay strong, Canada.