Oil Above $108! US Inflation Shock + Iran Fear Hits Market #nifty Pre Market report 13 May 2026

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]Hello everyone, this is the pre-market report video for today 13th May 2026 for the stock market in terms of Nifty and Macy. Yesterday after the Indian market closing both Indian government and US government released their April month consumer inflation data and I believe today this inflation data along with US Iran conflict and oil price movement are going to be the biggest things that influence our Indian market. I mean as it is already market sentiment is weak because of the rupee hitting fresh all-time low. Oil price above $100 US per barrel and our prime minister Modi's recent fuel conversation request to the public. And now yesterday night US inflation also came higher than expected. So in a way this confirms that Middle East conflict and higher oil prices are now influencing US economy as well. If required please pause and have a look. The headline consumer inflation for April month came at 3.8% whereas market was expecting 3.7% and more importantly this is the highest inflation since May 2023. Then on the monthly basis also inflation increased 6% which is very high but the okay thing to notice core inflation is still below 3% even though it also came higher than expected and according to US data itself energy prices increased 17.9% on the yearly basis which is the highest since September 2022. Gasoline prices alone increased more than 28% on the yearly basis. Hence, in one sentence, yesterday's US inflation data clearly confirmed that oil price spike due to the US Iran conflict is now becoming a macroeconomic issue for us as well. And on top of that, the geopolitical situation also become slightly worse.

[00:01:51]Last night, Trump again spoke aggressively regarding Iran. He called Iran's proposal as unacceptable and piece of garbage. In addition, US news channel CNN said that Trump administration is seriously considering restarting their attack operations if negotiations continue to fail means. So naturally, oil prices increased. At the time of this video, Bren crude trading near 108 US per barrel whereas WA crude is trading above 1 or2 US per barrel.

[00:02:21]And another important thing to notice UK also announced that they are preparing drones, jets and warships to support future defensive operations around the state of harness. Hence, overall confidence about a quick peace agreement is reducing significantly. Because of all those reasons, US market reacted significantly negative. At one point, NASDAQ was down near 2%, S&P 500 fell near 1% and Dow Jones traded deeply negative. But however, defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer durables supported the US market recovery. So in the end last night, Dowo Jones actually managed to recover most of its losses and closed marginally positive by around.1% whereas S&P closed around 2% negative and NASDAQ underperformed all down around 7%. In case of VIX, it fell to 18 from 18.5. So clearly technology sector was the weakest segment yesterday and in line with this negative US market closing and higher inflation concern nifty continued to weaken further early morning today gift nifty teed near 23,369 hence equating that with the spot market for now it's indicating a gap down opening of around 70 points but here the important thing to notice despite the bad inflation data and weak NASDAQ closing gift nifty is not collapsing aggressively which means to some extent yesterday Indian market itself already priced in lot of negativity still overall momentum remains weak then moving to Indian ADRs as it is all four major ads closed to negative HTFC bank ADR closed around 6% negative ICC bank ADR also closed more than 1% negative and regarding IT side both Infosys and Vipro ADR fell around 2% but if we compare ADR movement With yesterday Indian market closing ADR weakness is comparatively less. Hence ADRs are not indicating fresh panic selling. Rather it's indicating continuation of cautious negative sentiment. Here I like to highlight one thing. Yesterday in Indian market nifty IT index fell to near three-year low and the negativity is associated with AI as on Monday night open AI announced a new AI company where they will directly embed engineers into organizations and help companies to implement AI solutions. I mean market is interpreting this as direct competition to traditional IT service business models. Then on top of that HSBC released a note saying global a spending is crowding out Indian traditional IT spending demand. So now market is worried that instead of companies spending on traditional software outsourcing they may spend more on a infrastructure and automation and already Indian IT company's earnings and guidance were weak in the March quarter.

[00:05:20]Hence all these things together are increasing pressure on Indian IT stocks.

[00:05:25]But still I won't say Indian IT is finished or anything like that. I mean at the moment investor confidence towards traditional software service business is weak. That's the takeaway.

[00:05:36]Now moving to India's April month consation it came at 3.48% which is less than RBI's 4% target as well as analyst expectation of 3.8%. So in a way this is positive. However the important thing to note is compared to March month's 3.4% 4% inflation increased slightly and food inflation increased to 4.2% from previous months 3.87%. Hence we could say inflation is still under control but upward pressure is slowly starting.

[00:06:07]Please note so far Indian government still hasn't increased petrol and diesel prices. So at some point if fuel prices are increased domestically then naturally transportation cost and overall inflation will move higher. And regarding the rupee side also weaker rupee itself is inflationary because India imports most of its crude oil.

[00:06:29]Hence in one sentence present inflation data is okay and positive but future inflation risk is increasing because of energy price and geopolitics. As a summary yesterday both US and India released their inflation data. US inflation came clearly higher than expected and confirmed that higher oil prices are now creating broader inflation pressure in the economy. At the same time, India's inflation data is still relatively under control and below RBI target. But because of oil price, rupee weakness and future fuel price risk, market is becoming cautious. Then on the geopolitical side, again US era negotiations are becoming complicated.

[00:07:11]Hence overall global momentum is weak and for now gift nifty is indicating the gap down opening. Then if you see the institution data yesterday for the fifth session in a row they were mega net sellers. Yesterday the net sold for massive 8,500 cr rupes. Then about da the net bought for significant 6,000 cr rupes. Then if you see the participant wise openress data slightly more call options around 41% against 31% of the put option openers either unwound or expert. Hence the PCR ratio improved slightly to 89 from 77 on Monday closing. Based on the remaining open interest, please pause and have a look for index option stance and future index percentage holding. Here please note all these positions are after expiry. So today it has to rebuild and it might change after that. about the things to look out. Sipla, TV holdings, TVs motor company, Hindustan Petroleum, Oil India, CA Ratings, Crompton Greaves, LAC Housing Finance and PFC are some of the major Indian companies earnings results are released today. In terms of macro during our market time, there is nothing that I'm aware of release that could influence our Indian market. Whereas after our market close, OPEC monthly report, US wholesale inflation, crude oil inventories and 30-year note auction are the important things to look out for today. Coming technical, Nifty opened 90 points gap down and extended its downward journey for the fourth straight session. Then closed at around 23,380.

[00:08:36]Thus on the daily chart, Nifty formed a long red candle and fell below the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April rally in a single session indicating increasing selling pressure.

[00:08:48]In addition, it remained below all key moving averages all of which are trending downward. RSA fell below 40.

[00:08:55]Hence, as long as Nifty trades below 23,400, a fall towards 23,200 to 23,000 is possible in the upcoming sessions.

[00:09:04]However, reclaiming and sustaining above this level can drive it upward towards 23,500 to 23,600. In case of Bank Nifty, similar to Nifty, it also opened more than 250 points gap down and dropped throughout the session, then closed at 53,555. Thus on the daily chart, bank nifty formed a long bearish candle and maintained its lower high lower low formation. In addition, it remained below all cuming averages all of which are continue to trend downward. RSI fell below 40. Hence going forward 54,00 to 54,200 zone is likely to act as the significant resistance with support at 53,000 level. Regarding the options front, the maximum call option openers was at 24,000 strike followed by 23,500 and 23,800 with maximum new collapse rating at 23,500 24,000 and 23,800 strike. Whereas on the put side, the maximum bonus was at 23,000 strike followed by 22,800 and 23,500 with maximum new put up rating at 23, 22,800 and 23,500 strike. There's no options data. It indicates that Nifty's trading range would be at 23,000 to 24,000 in the short term. So that's all in this video. Hope you got some information.

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[00:10:34]Thanks for watching.