Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count: CRASH Wave C Likely Now in Progress - The Next Leg Down of the BTC CRASH

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:04]I told you it's possible that the bare market rally is more feeble this time around and we just rallied under 38% and again you have a bare flag. You're selling at the 200 period. We are doing exactly what we did though the last bare market and that is that you dropped 52% and then you rallied into the 200. We didn't rally uh more than the higher percentage than the 200.

[00:00:29]Last time it was a 46% rally into the 200 period. Here it was just under a 38% rally into it. Uh last time after that rejection at the 200 you drop 68%. That would take us down to 25,000. This is the linear scaling. I've drawn a parallel boundary uh of the trend line up here.

[00:00:50]Again, you could just be expanding the channel. parallel boundary again could take us down into towards 15,000. We may even uh try to take 15,000 out get a bounce go lower and again possibly up to a 90 90 plus% drop into 12 13,000 bare flag could be a continuation of this first leg down as I've talked so much about this rally into the 200. This is our linear scaling. We we didn't even reach the 50% retracement here in with linear. It's 93,000 with the log. It's 87,000. Uh we didn't even reach the 38.2 Fibonacci.

[00:01:29]So, this is a much weaker rally than the last bare market. Maybe it's not done yet. If we can get a higher low and go higher, but right now, if the bare flag plays out, you've got the possibility that we've completed a wave B. If the bare market rally is done, if the bare market rally is done, I talked about my original thesis was we were going to go down, get one more push and get a larger bare market rally back to test 97,000 7,900.

[00:01:56]And again, how that's possible.

[00:01:59]It's becoming more likely that this is a bare flag continuation that we have an ABC completing wave B and that you have a leg down for A and now you've got B and now you're going to get C in either a five leg push lower or a threeleg push lower. uh if this bare market is more feeble and if it's done. Now here I've marked this as a five leg push down one two three four and five completing A an A B C structure for B that's going to be followed by a five leg structure down for C that could take us to the parallel boundary the lower boundary to this channel which again take us back to test 15,000 or beyond it here with this scenario I've marked it going down into the summer a rally back up and then going on into October here, early October again down towards 12,000.

[00:02:54]Previous channel I just showed you, it was a little higher than that. If we go into October, you could see something like this happen, which is in agreement with the 4-year cycle. This scenario says we get a five leg uh push down and that we have a five for a 535 pattern.

[00:03:12]535.

[00:03:13]That's the pattern in a zigzag correction.

[00:03:18]A zigzag corrected pattern is a three leg push down, but it unfolds in a 535 pattern in that ABC structure. So you have a three-legged structure ABC down that unfolds in a 535 pattern. That is a zigzag.

[00:03:41]Again, the zigzag would be a five leg push down followed by a three-leg push higher followed by another five leg push down. Now, this could be a complex correct correction. And if it is a complex correction, then it might unfold in a three-legg push down rather than a five leg push down for this next uh leg down of the bare market. If that is the case, assuming that the bare market rally is done, just being more feeble, uh we have a potential wxy here down for W, an X, and then a Y and what could be a larger complex correction, but it's too early to know that for sure. We don't know how this is going to unfold. But it is possible that if it unfolds in a three-legg push down rather than a five leg push down that we have a larger complex correction uh under construction on Bitcoin. to speculation too early to tell. to see how the next leg unfolds or bare market doesn't the bare the bare flag doesn't play out and we end up getting a move down for a higher low or a lower low but then we end up going back up to these Fibonacci larger Fibonacci retracement levels of 50% or maybe the 61 point of Fibonacci you've got a good shot that the bare market rally is done and it's just more feeble as I've said I think those are the possibilities here if in fact the bare market rally is done at the 200 period moving average.

[00:05:14]I'm going to show you some interesting things in this video. Watch the video all the way through. You're going to really see some neat stuff help you to help you understand uh where Bitcoin is likely headed to.

[00:05:29]Please support the channel. Please support the channel with the link directly below that allows me to be able to provide you this information.

[00:05:37]If you could take a moment to help out, I would really appreciate that. Most YouTube channels, they have sponsors.

[00:05:42]They sell you stuff or influence you to go to, you know, such and such exchange. I choose not to do that. I turn those offers down. I'm not here to sell you something. I'm here to talk about Bitcoin and my amazing indicators and my beautiful charts. These are the charts and indicators that I use to make my decisions with Bitcoin. They help educate you. Then please support the channel. Let me know that you want this information by supporting the channel.

[00:06:10]Follow the link below. It'll take you to a secured site. You could donate any amount you want. If you could take a moment to do that, I would really appreciate it. I just put all the information out there for free and just ask that you do what you can to help out rather than get sponsors. But I need to hear from you in order to make that work. So, take a moment to do that today. Anything helps. Thank you for your consideration for that. And once you finish watching the video, please take a moment and support the channel.

[00:06:35]Today, we're seeing the risk model turn back to bearish on Friday, flipping the trend back to bearish for Bitcoin. A boatload of sell signals uh last week and a bunch of them uh the majority of them came on Saturday. Had other ones earlier in the week. I talked about all those signals in my last update. If you didn't watch it, you want to see all my amazing indicators, go watch the video linked at the end of this one from my last post. You'll see all the sell signals. Now, Bitcoin's approaching of the 50 period moving average. It may try to bounce there.

[00:07:08]It's had a pretty pretty good decline here, but again, I talked about the bearish diversions on the crypto fear greed index with Bitcoin. That likely has marked a peak. Looks like that is the case. The last time I got a bearish diversion is back over here. It marked the top on October 6th.

[00:07:26]Now, it's a Monday session. Bitcoin is currently down over 1%. Uh again, moving towards that 50 period moving average.

[00:07:34]Uh today is May 18th, 2026. And it's still a bad day to be bullish on Bitcoin. Why? Because Bitcoin's in a confirmed bare market rally that I predicted back over here on the 5th and 6th of February, predicting that Bitcoin would rally up to 74,000 to 80,000. We've gone just a little bit higher to 82,000 is uh has likely now concluded and we are now on our way back down to eventually take out the trend line, the bare flag and ultimately take out the lows over here and over here and over here and ultimately take out 60,000.

[00:08:16]Boom boy has told us, "Oh, WE HAVE A BREAKOUT. IT'S A BREAKOUT."

[00:08:20]As we stall at major resistance levels, the 200 period, that's the black line you see right there, and reverse, break the rising wedge, form a rising wedge, break down, back test it, now drop back towards the 50 period moving average. 50 is still below the 200. The 50 right here is rising. We're above it. And again, I told you back over here that we found support at the support zone.

[00:08:43]Signals began to turn back to bullish and that we're going to rise back up and test this high for lower high or higher high. But again, I've talked about all the way from back over here, the uh uh the target uh levels being between 74,000 and 80,000. Told you if we moved above that, we might reach the 200 period moving average, which is what we did in the last bare market. We ended up doing that. This is likely now completed. We're now resuming the decline, likely to go take out 60,000.

[00:09:11]Talked about four scenarios. One scenario is that we sell off and we get a higher low and then we go make new highs above this peak over here 82,000 towards the 50% retracement. That's possible. But right now we're getting rejection at the 200. Another possibility is we drop down the my original thesis was we drop down below this level near the two and 300E moving average and then try to get a bigger bare market rally. That is still possible but starting to become less likely. The third possibility was as as I talked about uh we would have to be able to clear the 200 period moving average this moving average right here and move closer towards the 50% retracement of the 61 point of Fibonacci for a larger bare market rally right here right now. I told you that was likely but I explained to you what had to happen in order for that to happen. U and we have rejection at the 200 period and horizontal resistance. The fourth possibility, which very well could be the case, is that we've had a more feeble bare market rally, just under 38%. The last one was 46%. We didn't make it up to the 50% retracement of the previous decline. And that we're now resuming the next leg down. This is very possible. And I'll show you uh my Elliot Wave counts that suggest that is possible. We've seen divergences at the 200 period moving average with the rising wedge forming in the larger bare flag. That's playing out. Now we're coming back and testing the 50 period moving average. We saw divergence develop on on uh the RSI and we've had multiple points of divergence on many indicators at that 200 period moving average. Now the RSI is moving below 50.

[00:10:53]So again above 50 the buying pressure is stronger and you're getting a rally below 50. below 50 like back over here with this decline right here below 50 the the selling pressure is stronger than the buying pressure and you're dropping the final exit point we had rejection at the 50 and that's right where the 100 was crossing it but the 50 and the 100 but we got rejection at the 50 period moving average then at the January 14th peak we got rejection at the 100 period moving average the pink line and now here in May we've gotten rejection uh with our peak on May 6th and the lower high tagging it yet again we've gotten rejection at the 200 period moving average. Nothing bullish about this chart. This is a counter trend rally, a secondary trend. The primary trend is still down with a series of lower highs and lower lows. No, we have a higher low and a higher high. This is short-term price fluctuations just like right over here. Higher low, higher high giving you a counter trend in the larger primary trend. We didn't get a higher high above 97,900.

[00:11:59]the peak back over here. We're still in a confirmed downtrend. The bare flag is a continuation of this. As I told you, this rally was a continuation of this and it played out getting rejection at the 50 level in the weekly time frame on the RSI as we're getting rejection at the 200 in the daily time frame. Still have a 50/50 sell signal. The RSI is still below 50.

[00:12:26]We're price is still below the green line. the 50 level. Risk is that we're going to uh again crash by 80% or 90% which is what we've done in the past. This is not a bullish chart. This is a bearish chart. We had an RSI uh an RSI failure swing right here at the 50 level. We failed to clear it and get back above the 50week moving average.

[00:12:54]Reaffirming the previous 50/50 bearish signal, dropping below the 50we moving average, dropping below 50 on the RSI.

[00:13:02]The 50/50 sell signal is being reaffirmed here. This is not bullish.

[00:13:08]Now, Bitcoin is in a confirmed bare market in the daily, in the weekly, and the monthly time frame. Bitcoin topped with the 4year cycle.

[00:13:24]If you cannot admit these things that Bitcoin is in a confirmed bare market, if you cannot admit that Bitcoin topped with the four-year cycle and you still uh promote, no, the four-year cycle's dead. The super cycle again, if you if you can't admit these things, there's there's nothing I can do for you. You're in denial. We're in a bare market, a confirmed bare market that's going to at least last for the next 4 and a half months till October of 2026.

[00:13:58]The 4-year cycle is intact. We topped with the 4-year cycle at major resistance, right on schedule. Now, the four-year cycle may break at some point in the future, but right now it remains intact. And if we bottom out in, you know, September, October or so, the 4-year cycle will remain intact. Some point we could break it. If we get a prolonged bare market that goes into 2027, then well, it could be broken with an extended bare market or if a bull market next bull market is extended, it could break the 4-year cycle. But right now, the four-year cycle is intact. We completed it. We completed the cycle top right on time, as I've pointed out. completed phase three as I pointed out phase one the bottoming process and the consolidation the uh markup phase and phase two and on into phase three the topping process now we're in the phase for the markdown phase that's going to take us at least into uh you know October or September September or October of 2026 which will likely produce an 80 to 90% % drop sh which oh THAT'S OUTRAGEOUS THAT'S RIDICULOUS really I mean come on let's grow up again markets for bitcoin have been 80 to 90%. How did I predict this crash? Because bitcoin crashes 50% or more to kick off the bare market and then it goes on to drop 80 or 90%. The smallest bare market was our last bare market at 78%. First bare market now I've seen here 93% 86% uh 86% over here 84% 78 12% again you're likely going to drop approximately 80 to 90% or close to it now maybe the bare markets are getting smaller and smaller possible I'm open-minded to that we get a bare market less than 78% but until proven otherwise we have to assume that we're going to drop approximately 80 to 90% or the last bare market just under 80%. First bare market just over 90%.

[00:16:07]Now the cycle low again here is a one-year bare market just like the one over here. Just like the one back over here, just like the one back over here.

[00:16:18]Approximately a year bare market. We have people continuing to, you know, call every dip the bottom all the way down. And again, Bitcoin has at least four and a half more months till the bare market could be uh completed and it's going lower. 60,000 is not the bottom.

[00:16:40]I've talked about I've talked about the four-year cycle. I've talked about it and again, people continue to be in denial that the four-year cycle, no, we're in the super cycle. There's no evidence that we're in a super cycle.

[00:16:51]Another Moonboy hoax. People dismiss what has worked and what has happened over and over again to believe something that has never happened. That we're in this brand new super cycle. As Tom Lee and the Moon Boys all predicting at the top we're going to 200 250,000 by the end of 2025 as the bottom falls out of Bitcoin in our first leg down. The experts, the Moo Boys, the herd completely blindsided by what happened.

[00:17:20]Everything I've told you and warned you about has happened. But again, just real fast, uh, from cycle low to cycle high, the four-year cycle, right, with October October 2000, uh, October uh, uh, 2025, October 6th from the cycle low back over here, cycle low, it was 1,64 days, right on right on schedule. There was a double bottom back over here. That was the first bottom. Uh that was u64 days. Prior bull market 1,064 days. Prior bull market 1,64 days.

[00:18:02]Markets from 2013 on into 2015 just over 52 weeks. We had over a year. Okay. Here we had 52 weeks. one year exactly 2017 on into the 2018 bare market over here from the 2021 peak down to the 2022 low again 52 bars exactly one year so one year just over one year one year one year and again that's why I'm telling you this should take us into October 2026 give or take top you know October late September or maybe something a little bit longer if it's a you know more like here in 2013 to 2015. But again, the four-year cycle remains intact and you still have believe people that believe that this is a bare trap and we're all going to be so sorry.

[00:18:54]Again, it was a bull trap back at the top. But people get in denial. You know why they're in denial? Because they're trapped. A good majority of people are holding losing positions. So it clouds it clouds their thinking. They want to buy into the hype and the hopium because they want to believe that Bitcoin will recover and then we're going to show those bears. And again, either Bitcoin's going to drop into late 2026 here or we'll get a pro prolong bare market, but at some point there's going to be a great buying opportunity for the long on the long side for Bitcoin. This isn't it. and the people that are in denial will will finally figure out that Bitcoin's in a bare market right about the time that it bottoms. That's what usually happens. Just wanted to show you again the four-year cycle is intact.

[00:19:46]Bitcoin is on a path to continue to drop to at least uh October of 2026, give or take. And it might go longer if the four-year cycle breaks if it is a prolonged bare market. get a dot style bust in the stock market which is very likely a very bad recession which is very likely and another banking crisis which is very likely.

[00:20:13]Now this is the weekly chart of Bitcoin.

[00:20:15]pointed out and I posted this chart on X and in my videos and again told how stupid I was and how Bitcoin again when I called the top and predicted a 50 plus% crash. I crashed down to 60 to 63,000 minimum objective target to kick off the bare market which again happened right on the nose. 50% 50 uh uh 52% to drop to 60,000. Where did I get that from? Oh gee, we dropped 52% over here and then we rally back up to the 200 day in the daily, which is what we've done right now. And again, there's a very good chance we're starting the next leg down. Now, if the bare market rally is done, I told you that it could be. I was expecting another push down and then a larger bare market rally. That's still possible. But I told you what if I'm wrong about that and what if this is the bare market rally and it's just weaker. This bare market rally over here is 46% to the 50% retracement. We didn't make it to the 50% retra retracement. We didn't make it anywhere close to the 50% retracement.

[00:21:18]We started at the 200 period just like we did over here. And then the bottom fill out of Bitcoin. Could we see that again and drop approximately 80 or 90%.

[00:21:27]Again, uh I told you these highs could be pointing to the next highs and we hit it three times and it's one, two, three strikes. out there in July, August, and then again in October. In order to have a bullish case, you got to clear this level. I told you getting rejection at it validates my thesis that we're going to get the crash to get kick off the bare market, which did happen. We bounced off of this trend line right here. And that gave us what looks to be now the bare market rally, but it's just more feeble. The moon boys get all excited about the bare market rally. And again, we're likely going down here to take out the 200 period moving average, the 200E moving average, the black line.

[00:22:09]Bitcoin is in a confirmed bare market with two consecutive closes below the green line up here, the 50WE moving average. Bitcoin has never ever gone and moved to new highs after confirming a bare market with two consecutive closes below the 50week moving average without first tagging the 200E moving average which is what we had back over here and the 300 week below it. Never tagged the 200 yet. So, I told you this was either a bare market rally or uh a miniature relief rally like our last one that back tested the trend line, the broken trend line from the 2022 low. If we break this trend line now, we come down and break this trend line, break below the 200, break below the 300 again, they may you may drop below them and not be able to get back above them. uh the the behavior previously was that we bottomed around the 200 and 300WE moving average and why I told you that when we drop down there it's going to be proclaimed that we have bottomed. Now again my original thesis was we would drop down and then get a bigger bare market rally because we've rallied up to the 200 day moving average and are stalling there. The risk is that is a bare market rally and it's just more feeble. It was just under 38%. Not as strong as the previous one over here at 46%. Not as strong as this one.

[00:23:28]Moving to the 50% retracement. This we stalled near the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement. This thing could be done.

[00:23:37]And we're about to see the bottom fall out of Bitcoin. Again, posted this chart back at the top. Laughed at mocked. And yet I was right. All the people tell that told me, "Oh, you don't understand.

[00:23:48]And we're going to 200 250,000 by the end of the year. H how's that breakout back up the top working out? How's that buy the dip that keeps on dipping? How's that working out? Again, soon the people that bought right here in the from the 60,000 low, soon they're going to join the other folks when we move to new lows and either be liquidated, stopped out.

[00:24:10]Some of them already are being stopped out or again like many people back over here, they rode Bitcoin all the way down. A lot of people hodddle uh not by choice. A lot of people hodddle not by choice, but because they make dumb decisions buying into moonboy hype hype and ho hoaxes.

[00:24:30]I'm telling you, if we're just getting a bounce off of this trend line, you're going to drop 80 or 90%. 80% is down to 25,000. 90% is down to about 12 or 13,000. And we could drop more than 90%.

[00:24:42]Our first bare market was 93%. But the bare markets have been approximately 80 to 90%. This one was 78.5%.

[00:24:50]So again, I think you're going to drop around 80 to 90%. Just as I predicted that we would drop about 50 plus% predicting a drop to 60 to 63,000 to kick off the bare market, my minimum objective target, which if this is the bare market rally, and it very well could be, then I was correct and I hit that right on the nose. I told you we still might get a push down and get a larger bare market. That scenario is still on the table, but this scenario where we just see this continuation now is becoming uh a lot uh a lot more likely. Now, now I'm going to show you some other charts here, but again, just as I told you, these highs could be pointing to the next high. Just like back over here, I told you these lows could be pointing to the next high back up here at the uh 2021 peak. Correct about that. Correct about these highs pointing to the next top. So you have a possible channel whereas these lows over here and over here the bare market back over here uh in 2017 and 18 and the higher low with the pandemic itself they could be pointing to the next low. Also another confluence point is the peak in 2017 at 20,000 with the bottom here in 2022 at 15,000. That trend line again is pointing down into this area. So, could this area mark a bottom for Bitcoin?

[00:26:19]Well, if it drops 90% or more or close to 90%, you might come down into this area. Something well worth considering.

[00:26:28]Again, I don't know that we're going to reach 12,000 for sure. But my target is between 12,000 and 25,000. That's at 80 to 90%. That's reasonable. Believe that Bitcoin is going to do that. You know, I have people say, "Well, we we might drop down to 40 mid 40,000 level or the mid30,000 level." Well, that's only going to be the mid 40,000 level, a 60% drop. The mid30,000 level, 37,000 is 70% drop. That's not what Bitcoin's done in the past. So, again, I'm open-minded to the bare markets becoming smaller and smaller. Certainly seen the bull markets become weaker and weaker with diminishing returns each cycle. So, I'm open-minded to that. But historically, what Bitcoin has done is it's dropped approximately 80 to 90%. We'll see if that continues. Have people telling me, "Oh, well, Bitcoin might drop to the mid40s,000 range or the mid-30, but come on, 25,000, 12,000." Well, that's what Bitcoin's done in the past. Explain to me how it's so unreasonable to believe that Bitcoin is going to do that again when all the bare markets have been approximately 80 to 90% the smallest being 78 12% marked over here.

[00:27:49]I warned you back at the top that we were hitting the trend line from the previous highs, but I also warned you that we were slamming into the 1.618 618 expansion from the previous the previous bare market. I told you we had to clear this level in order to try to go to the Fibonacci expansion from the last selloff which would have been around 175,000. If we can clear this level, I told you that with the 4-year cycle, there's a very good chance we're going to see a peak here. I called a top. The day of the top, we slammed into resistance. I saw evidence of it with the divergences and and a lot of other things I talked about and topping with the 4-year cycle as I've talked about in this video right on schedule. It's still beautifully at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, the expansion level of the previous bare market, the 1.618 extension level. These highs have marked a high here. It's possible that these lows could be marking the next bottom.

[00:28:51]These lows are pointing to the next bottom and again around 12,000 13,000 or so here with the log scaling if the 4year cycle ends up breaking. We can see this drag out on into uh 2027. But right now the four-ear cycle remains intact.

[00:29:08]So I'll be watching this. I told you the bearish case is we top with the four-year cycle at this trend line and we reverse and we drop 50 to 52% to kick off the bare market which was my minimum objective target. Then we rally back up.

[00:29:23]I told you that if we're going to clear this level, you still have a shot at reaching the upper channel which would have been towards the Fibonacci extension level of this level but we got rejection there. So I flipped from bullish to bearish and I warned you back at the top. It looked like we had an ending diagonal uh in the final fifth wave here that should be followed by a larger correction. But I took a lot of heat for calling the top on October 6 right into resistance and predicting the 50 to 52% crash minimum objective crash target levels 60 to 63,000. I was correct. Why did I change? Because I saw evidence that we were peaking on Bitcoin. People mad at me. They want Oh, no. No. They wanted me to ignore my indicators and ignore the warning signs.

[00:30:11]I was right to follow my indicators. And I told you the only way we're going to go up towards 175, 150,000, 175,000, 150,000 was the 1.78 Fibonacci extension and then this channel line. The only way we're going to do that is to clear this level. Had massive negative divergences in the weekly time frame here and in the monthly time frame, the daily time frame. all kinds of warning signs as we peaked with the four-year cycle right on schedule. You know, people that buy into the hype and the hopeium, they don't want to hear the bearish case. And again, we want to be objective and we want to be in harmony with Bitcoin. Right now, Bitcoin's bearish. So, we want to be bearish. When Bitcoin flips back to bullish, we want to be bullish in a confirmed bare market. But the idea to make money with Bitcoin and and to accumulate more and more Bitcoin, isn't that the idea? So selling at the top and trying to buy Bitcoin when the bare market finishes like it did down here, isn't the idea? Accumulate more Bitcoin.

[00:31:18]Now, the people that are riding Bitcoin all the way down or continue to get liquidated all the way down or get stopped out, as I said, buying Bitcoin at the wrong time and being doing the huddle, but holding it through the entire collapse makes no sense whatsoever. These people do will not have the opportunity to buy Bitcoin on sale at a super discount. That's why it's foolish to huddle if Bitcoin has topped. Huddle's good through a bull cycle, but once the bull cycle has completed, then it's a dumb strategy.

[00:31:50]You have to sell at some point when the bull market ends. You see evidence of that. Doing so, a person can either move to cash or consider shorting opportunities throughout a bare market and then buy Bitcoin on the cheap when it finally bottoms. That's the smart way to sell at the top into a good price.

[00:32:12]buy on the cheap after once the bare market is coming to a conclusion. But again, people can't be objective. I think this bare market either goes on to October of 2026 towards the end of the year or it goes on maybe into the summer of 2027 if this thing drags out, which it could. I want to remain open-minded and objective. You're not being objective. YOU'RE NOT PRESENTING THE BULLISH. HELLO. Reality check. We are in a confirmed bare market. If you cannot accept that and that the fouryear cycle is still attached, you're in denial.

[00:32:47]There's nothing I can do for you. You're going to believe what you're going to believe. But buying into all that hype and continues to get people wrecked. And again, the folks here rally off 60,000, they are going to join the club because Bitcoin has not bought. Just as I told you, 80,000 was not the bottom. So too, 60,000 is not the bottom.