Space Stocks Beyond SpaceX: Any Deals? Comparing Valuation (EV/GP/RG + Growth + Lots of Hype)

追加: 2026-06-07

[00:00:00]Hello everybody. So this video is entitled space stocks any deals. Are there any deals? And this video is of course inspired by my earlier video about the SpaceX IPO that received quite a few interesting comments. One of them of course being the insane price to sales ratio that is implied in the $1.8 trillion target for SpaceX. So essentially 100 times sells. Essentially 100 times sales. And I will show you the valuation of the other space stocks. And of course let us begin with the hottest space stock. It's Rocket Lab. Of course you've heard of it. Everybody's heard of it. The numbers wouldn't be too bad on growth. You know up 43% next 12 months.

[00:00:49]That's pretty good. Gross margin is even optimized for such a tough industry.

[00:00:54]Ebida margin is not there. They're investing heavily and keep reinvesting the money, but the valuation is so nosebleleed. I can't even I can't even fathom to begin to comprehend this madness. Especially when this stock I remember coming this stock back in the day, it was $4 and people were wondering whether it was a buy or not at four bucks. Um it it's gotten out of hand.

[00:01:19]It's very much got an out of hand. The valuation of the stock enterprise value over gross profit over revenue growth is a 5.7.

[00:01:27]It's absolute nosebleleed. Um it's way worse than Tesla even to to to to say the truth here. And of course the enterprise value over forward revenue is 64 times revenue. But look the enterprise value is 60 billion. So the rounding the rounding error of the SpaceX IPO between 1.75 and 1.8 8 trillion is the entire enterprise value of Rocket Lab and Rocket Lab to me is just absolute nosebleleed valuation. I cannot understand this. It's hype.

[00:01:56]That's what it is. Now, some in the comment section mentioning Red Wire and Red Wire is the same problem in my view.

[00:02:03]It's like, yeah, of course, if you look at revenue growth, enterprise value over for revenue growth, it's a eight. To me, that's very pricey. Eight times sales.

[00:02:12]You're you're you're beginning to have a pricey business. Um, but uh it's optimized for gross for gross profit.

[00:02:17]It's not optimized for IBM. Still losing a bunch of money at Red Wire. Although Red Wire they they they they do a bunch of uh of stuff. They do a bunch of um you know interesting stuff.

[00:02:30]Is this Red Wire? Yeah. They do um you can see um they do a little bit of military, they do a little bit of satellites, they do a little bit of space, uh they they do some defense tech, right? So that's military. They do they they do quite a bit of thing but but in my view nothing nothing justifies a 3.3 on enterprise value over gross profit over earning growth especially when the company is still bleeding money so you can't have a rule of 40 so to me of course it's a no moving on to another company which which equally as a nosebleleed valuation is lunar so lunar to me is crowded with traders and so the ne the next moon missions from from from NASA you may see the arc double and then it's going to go back down again. To me, to me, it's filled with w with speculators. Yes, intuitive uh machines is very impressive. So, they do two things. They do moon satellites and they do moon landers. And it's true that they're one of the one of less than 10 entities were able to ever land a lander on the moon. So, so they have a capability similar to that of nations from from 40 years ago. That's true. But does it warrant this nonsensical valuation? Um, in my view, in my view, it it it doesn't. This is this is a business that's just not growing um fast enough. Um, and the rule of 40, I suppose, is is there, but I have no idea why it didn't calculate the EV over GP over RG here. Oh, yeah. I have no idea why I didn't calculate, but it's it's it's it's not going to be good. It's not going to be good.

[00:04:04]There you go. Magic. I added it. I updated the spread. This is 2.78. EV over GP over RG is a 2.78 for Lunar. So again, this is absolutely absolutely not good. Not attractive. This price I don't like at all. Moving on to two potential candidates that I like. I'll first talk about a environment. Not that easy to say. So this one in my view looks very interesting if you must be exposed to the space hype and the space space error environment. The problem is that most of the revenue doesn't come from space. But as far as I'm concerned, this is a true space company. They do laser comms. They do drones. Um and they do Mars helicopters. Mars helicopters. They are they they um they they are right in the in the line of sight of what uh what hype would I would would have you like here. This is a space helicopter that they sent on Mars and and they have various space systems. The problem for Aeronment is that much of their revenue actually comes from their military drone sales like the Switchblade and that's fine but you may actually be buying a defense contractors more than a space company even though I believe a environment can catch the hype and can believe more of a space company um going forward. As far as valuation goes a environment looks looks u cheap. It looks it looks not not the cheapest out of all the stocks I cover, but it looks it looks pretty darn cheap as a 0.18 um and a 54. So, if I if I were to look at space stocks, Avive would be one of the most buyable stocks out there. As a reminder, like a stocks I cover a lot on this channel is a HIMS. HIMS is trading at a 0.10 on my spreadsheet. This is a 0.18.

[00:05:58]React, which is one of the cheapest stocks I cover, is trading at a 0.03.

[00:06:03]Right. So depending and real estate is the sector, right? So it depends on the sector. If you look at a company like Nvidia, we at a 0.45 for Nvidia on EV or GP over RG. So 0.18 is cheap. I'm going to give them that especially given the technological nature of the business and and the complicated nature of the business. So So if I were pressed and if if if I had to pick one, it would either be AVA, but as you know, I don't own AVA. I own Cooler. I'll get to Cooler in a second and explain why I own Cooler of course in a second. But Avive looks good if you want a a pure play company, a a a larger cap company. Of course, that's one of the reasons why a lot of people will eliminate cooler cooler because it's simply not a large cap. Okay, moving on to Black Sky. Uh Black Sky in my view, this one has gotten gotten ahead of itself. Uh they do uh intelligence from the sky, right?

[00:06:58]photos, videos, um all sorts of digital intelligence from their satellites, their their satellites where they have vision, right? And they can see what's going on on Earth. They have a big military business. They sell a lot of imagery um to to the military, but not only they sell it to agriculture, they sell it to insurance companies, they sell it to hedge funds. Interesting little business. I also think this is a business that could be very easily be disrupted by SpaceX, right? or by a customer of SpaceX. I think the the value of the satellite network is going to decrease over time because we're going to see so many different satellites go up in space via SpaceX. So to me, I would stay away, especially given valuation. EV GP RG is a 0.98.

[00:07:45]Given the risk, I find that too high, although it's somewhat acceptable compared to some of the other nosebleleed. And I'll I'll conclude with the last stock. And this stock has actually been quite on fire for the past few months. Um, and it's it's very interesting that Cooler has been on fire for the past few months because it's definitely not because of their Bitcoin.

[00:08:09]This stock has stopped trading on the Bitcoin that they own. So now you have a stock that I think is trading back on the original thesis and still has a tremendous margin of safety from the Bitcoin that they hold. And so in my cash number here, I have their cash plus their Bitcoin. I have it at 85 million.

[00:08:35]And so therefore, this is a company. You see, it's 180 million market cap. you remove 85 million, you get a 97 million market cap business thanks to the value of the Bitcoin that they have on the balance sheet, which is theirs to keep.

[00:08:49]And so I have a margin of safety in this stock, which is the only reason why I own it. I like owning it because of that margin of safety. And this is a stock that traded as high as $37.

[00:09:02]So this is a stock where if it were to get back to all-time high, you're looking at a 10x if it were to get back to all-time high. And to me, this is a stock that has everything that could be hype. And that is of course space batteries. Uh cooler is is I listened to the last conference call. It was only the CEO hyper hyperfocused on ramping the manufacturing of the cooler one batteries. The cooler cooler I think they pronounce it cooler the cooler one batteries which are space batteries and air batteries. And so they're focusing on these extreme environment batteries.

[00:09:38]And I see a clear disconnect between cooler and other extreme battery stocks like Emperrius for example. If you compare to Emperrius, the valuation is night and day. This stock is not uh a victim of hype and that's why I still find it quite interesting at three bucks. 80ents especially with that margin of safety. Um um we we were because it dropped a lot on on Friday, right? A few days ago, we we we were pretty much break even from when I started covering it a few days ago. We were pretty much there. And so this stock unfortunately got caught into the whole um Bitcoin debacle.

[00:10:20]But in my view, the market is now trading it in on the space batteries.

[00:10:23]It's trading on something else. And I I like it a lot. But if you don't want any drama, if you don't want if you want the best margin available at your broker, if you don't want any drama, if you want the best collateral, um I would argue that the best space stocks would be AVAV. That's that's my take on the space stock. So, as you can see, any deals maybe one or two, maybe one or two, but definitely not SpaceX, definitely not Rocket Lab. So, anyways, this was not investment advice. This is not financial advice. This is only entertainment. I'm hoping you were entertained. Please like, please subscribe, follow me on Patreon, follow me next. Thank you for watching and have a wonderful, wonderful day.