NPP Addresses Ghanaians Ahead of Ato Forson’s 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review | Channel One News

[00:00:00]we are observing and our presentation this morning is in three parts. First, the props or what is known as the settings that the government is employing to achieve the macro numbers that it is publishing and the effects of these props or settings. Second, we'll be speaking about the sustainability of these props or settings that we are using. And thirdly, we'll be uh speaking to the subject of some outstanding key development issues that the government is failing to tackle.

[00:00:30]So let's start off with the fiscal space question and how they are manufacturing data on what they call the surplus. Now on Thursday for sure the governor will tell the country that Ghana has moved from stability to growth. Our task today is to lay out what the government's own published data actually shows. Not the headline or narrative they are putting on it but what the data actually shows.

[00:00:54]how the headline numbers are being manufactured and whether they can last and what they have cost the ordinary Ghanaian and we'll put three tests to this review and the first is the quality of the 2025 surplus. Now the government will site a 2025 primary surplus of 2.6% 6% of GDP on a commitment basis against a target of 1.5% and they would seek to tell the Ghanaian people that that means that they are managing the fiscals.

[00:01:22]But we want to sound a caution ahead that it's important to look underneath these numbers. You will find that revenue is missed the revised target by about 4.7%.

[00:01:34]and the surplus was delivered because expenditure was compressed by 13.8% of GDP. In plain language, the government did not outcolct its target.

[00:01:49]It rather underspend its expenditure targets. Savings from delayed capital execution are not structural reform. they are only a postponement of things that they will have to do at the end of the day. The second issue is something that the first quarter of 2026 confirms as a pattern.

[00:02:12]Now the government's own data through what the bank of Ghana has just released ahead of the MPC shows that first quarter spending is about 62 billion against a target of 78 billion. That is 21.2% 2% below target.

[00:02:28]Capital expenditure is 41% below target. This is a government that says that its focus is a big infrastructure project out of which it will create 800,000 jobs and they are 41.9% below target on capital expenditure.

[00:02:46]Foreign finance projects is about 0.6 billion Ghana cities out of 5.3 billion Ghana cities. goods and services 35% below target. Grants to health, education and the districts is about 19% below target. And the only thing that they've been able to protect is the wage bill. And that is why the independent analysts are calling this the weakest first quarter execution of any budget since 2017.

[00:03:18]roughly about 24 billion Ghana cities unexecuted in three months and that is roads, schools and hospitals that had had to carry the cut.

[00:03:30]The third part of this argument is that the areas problem that this government first complained about and tried to paint the NP black on the aras problem is not gone away. The finance minister himself if you recall in 2025 reported that they had discovered aras of about 67 billion Ghana cities and he used that to adjust the primary balance at the time and you recall the minority at the time saying that that was very very inappropriate.

[00:03:59]Now he subjected it to an audit. The audit came back and proved that his 67 billion was false and that indeed what he could only even attempt to claim was 45 billion. And I'll come to a second point on that one. And by the way, that 45 billion was because he just went around asking anybody who says that government owes them to bring forward a claim. Now against this 45 billion, the 2025 budget allocated only 13 billion to settle some of it. And by November 2025, the road sector alone reported that they have now got a backlog of close to about 40 billion Ghana cities areas. So if the audited claim ended at 45 and they claimed they were going to pay about 13 billion and now the road sector alone is talking about 40 billion still. The minister now says only 11.5 billion has been cleared and no new payables have accured. the maths doesn't matter.

[00:05:01]What is the true stock of Aras and which sectors are driving it? And when cash is tight, is it the Aras clearance itself that is being squeezed? And by the way, bear in mind that this area stock as I mentioned was because they went around asking everybody to add up. The proper area stock has always been on the Gness.

[00:05:20]So when he comes tomorrow, he has to tell us which database he's using for his new AR calculation. Is he using the same formula he used in 2025 or he's going back to gifness in which case he'll be comparing apples and oranges and you believe we need to draw your attention so that all of us examine this in detail.

[00:05:39]Finally on this first argument that we've been making about the settings that we are using the revenue engine of our republic is paling the first quarter revenue missed the program target by about 4.5%.

[00:05:51]Oil revenue fell from about 19.8 38 billion Ghana cities in 2024 to 8.7 billion Ghana cities in 2025 and first quarter oil receipts this year were about 37.6% below target. Does the 268.1 billion CDs fullear revenue target still stand Mr. Minister or are you going to revise it downwards? And if it still stands from where are you going to close this gap without new distortionary taxes on households and businesses? It's important that we all keep an eye on this figure, the revenue figure that parliament has approved. And as he delivers the midyear review tomorrow, we ask ourselves with all of this under performance. Is he going to review the revenue target downwards? Or if he's keeping it, then the question is where are they going to close the gap from?

[00:06:43]because if it is not closed they cannot spend on the promises that they have made. The question hanging on Thursday is a surplus a policy achievement or reporting artifact of budgets that were simply not executed on the evidence. Ladies and gentlemen, we are clear that it is the second fiscal space created by underexecution is not true fiscal space. It's only a deferral of things that you still have to do at the end of the day. And you'll recall quite recently we were reminded uh in a very sad way when for example expenses that needed to be uh made on uh flood control programs were not done in the end when the floods came we saw the number of people who perished. So fiscal space that is created by under execution is not fiscal space. The real cost is there for the people to pay. Now let's go to the second part of our three-part conversation. How durable are these settings that they are embarking on?

[00:07:44]When the props are removed, what will happen at the end of the day? And here I'll treat it in a number of parts.

[00:07:49]First, what's going on at the IMF? The IMF executive board is expected to approve the final ECF review and the new policy coordination instrument around the 27th of July. That's 4 days after the minister will read the media review.

[00:08:05]Note that the PCI is a non- financing instrument that the government has gone for still under the INF. Now, choosing to remain under fund supervision without fund money is an admission that an external anchor is still required for this economy. And the fund's own May statement flags state-owned enterprises, contingent liabilities, quai fiscal activities and gold price over reliance as continuing risks to the Ghanaian economy. And that's the real reason for which this government is now gone under a PCI even though the ECF has ended. Now the second point is that the growth story that we are seeing is on gold.

[00:08:47]It's not based on any policy. The government will tout the first quarter growth of about 6.4% to say that ah the economy is performing. It is uh rebounding. There's higher growth. This is how they hope to make the argument that we have moved from stability to growth. But go into the details.

[00:09:04]industry's growth rate jumped from 1.9 to 6.9% yes in one quarter but if you double click it shows you that it's on the back of gold mining and export earnings hitting a record $ 31.1 billion in 2025 why because of historically high gold prices. Now let me refresh your memory. In 2025 when the minister read the 2024 review and realized that there have been growth in the economy mostly led by gold. I'm sure you recall what he said. He said I was gaming growth.

[00:09:39]So today as they are going to hint their growth numbers on gold it is fair to say that what is going on is galam accounting which they will be touting as gold.

[00:09:52]If gold returns to its 5-year average price, what will our growth figure be?

[00:09:58]What will the trade surplus be? What will the primary balance be? Where will they get forex to continue pumping onto the market? And now that matter has been established. We started talking about it in the first quarter of 2025. They disputed it. Now the jury is clear on it. The review that the minister will publish tomorrow must answer this sensitivity analysis else we are living on borrowed time. The third issue under the second pillar inflation is beginning to turn and the city is beginning to slip. Falling headline inflation never means falling prices. Prices have been rising only more slowly and now they are rising faster again. three consecutive months and it's increased to 5.3% in June, the highest since December 2025 and it's driven mostly by fuel cost from the Middle East conflict. Today brand crude is averaging about $91 per barrel. You recall in 2022 at the peak of the economic crisis when crude was about $120 and we kept explaining that that was the real driver of inflation. They said ours was untrue.

[00:11:11]Today it's inching up mostly driven by fuel cost by the Middle East conflict.

[00:11:17]Meanwhile, the city is also depreciated between 8.4 and 10.3% this year depending on the data source that you are using. Now you will notice that apart from the debt restructuring that the MPP government did which led to outright cancellation of about $5 billion of Ghana's debt and cash flow savings of about $4.7 billion cumulatively which contributed significantly to a reduction in our debt to GDP ratio. The other part of our debt improvement came from an appreciation of the currency last year.

[00:11:51]what the currency gave the currency is now beginning to take back. I'm sure when the bank of Ghana put out the data you noticed that our uh debt in CD denomination is now gone up by about 40 billion Ghana cities. the appreciation that they touted uh as a great thing and later counted back as showing that we had improved in our debt uh numbers in CD nomination is now going back and that's mostly why you are seeing this over 40 billion to the increase in our debt stock issue number four the government's own debt numbers do not agree with each other depending on which of their data sources you are looking at now the bank of Ghana is reporting that debt is roughly about 45% of GDP now as of June. The IMF is also projecting that it will get to 53% before the end of this year. Now given that Ghana's program with the IMF projects debt to GDP ratio to reach 55% of GDP by the end of 2028 the increased borrowing that we are seeing today means one thing that this target by the end of 2028 is already at risk and that's tomorrow the minister must present a proper debt sustainability analysis to convince the people of Ghana that all the sacrifice and the work that the people of Ghana went through to reduce our debt burden is not in vain.

[00:13:21]Colleagues, I'm sure you recall that just yesterday in parliament, they came for nearly 1 billion approval. And so already the debt target by 2028 is at risk.

[00:13:37]The government should not try to hide this reality in the impending rebasing of the GDP. We will fish it out and we'll calculate for you pre-rebasing and postrebasing what the new debt to GDP will be looking at the way they've started debt accumulation just 9 weeks after the IMF left town. But it even raises a bigger question. What does the IMF know that the government is not telling Ghanaians? What is included and excluded and on what GDP base? The review must publish one reconciled figure and one methodology.

[00:14:13]Issue number five. The Bank of Ghana's balance sheet is a fiscal time bomb.

[00:14:17]Colleagues, the Bank of Ghana reports a 2025 loss of 15.6 billion in one instance and then if you add the other 19 billion together about 34 billion and we have argued that if you net off the one-off gold sales it brings you to about 45 44.5 billion. Now, independent analysis puts the negative equity roughly around 96 billion Ghana cities.

[00:14:43]That's about 8% of GDP. The IMF has named the domestic gold purchase program as a driver of these losses and recapitalization is promised by 2032.

[00:14:54]That liability, for example, is sitting outside the budget, but it will demand real fiscal space tomorrow. The minister will need to start answering the questions on that one tomorrow. every city of it is a road that is not built.

[00:15:08]It's a classroom that is not funded. And finally, let me speak to the issue of what the Bank of Ghana is now confirming despite the fact that the majority in parliament doesn't want them to speak in public.

[00:15:19]Yesterday, at the opening of the 131st Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the governor announced that the central bank has seized pre-inancing of the gold board's gold purchase program effective the 1st of July. Let me refresh your memories once again. For months, the minority in parliament warned that this financing was an unbudgeted quasi fiscal operation exposing the state to huge losses. We were dismissed.

[00:15:50]Our motions for investigations were dismissed.

[00:15:54]At the time, the IMF quantified it at $214 million lost on the gold for reserves program. This was around September 2025. By the end of the year, the Bank of Ghana account itself shows that it was around $900 million. That's about the 9.6 billion Ghana cities that they talk about in their report, which reports the finance minister has still not made before parliament. Now, those figures were disputed loudly. Now just yesterday without apology the bank has announced that it will stop the financing.

[00:16:31]This is too little too late. The losses have already been booked onto the balance sheet in between the 15 billion the 19 billion and the commumulative 96 billion uh underwater. Stopping the bleeding unfortunately does not restore the blood and mark our words the governor has begun the confession. Soon the finance minister too will come before this country confessing what we have been saying all along. And very finally we want to speak about the credibility of some of the promises that we are making going forward. And here I'll treat it in four major parts.

[00:17:11]Announcements. We celebrate a lot of announcements that the finance minister makes when he announces them and we see a lot of headlines. When you go into the details of what has actually been released and executed, it's very disappointing. In June, the finance ministry said it released 1.6 billion Ghana cities to agriculture. The Greek ministry put the authorization at rather 910 million Ghana cities. And then they further argue that even disbbursement was lower at 453 million Ghana cities.

[00:17:40]Right to information reports indicates 76 to 90% of the big push road contracts worth over 70 billion Ghana cities are soul sourced and when the country was assured that payment will not be a problem we are now finding out that capital execution as I've already explained to you is only about 58% of targets so money is a problem so when announcements are made that's not what we'll be looking at we'll be looking at the cash releases because they tell two different stories it is the press release that tells the truth. The second is that the jobs numbers are audio announcements. They are in the pipeline. They are not on the payroll.

[00:18:23]The 24-hour economy promised about 1.7 million jobs. It direct 2026 allocation is 110 million Ghana cities.

[00:18:33]They now claim that they've created about 160,000 jobs and signed someus but they are not operating projects and the totals lean on multipliers of 1 to four and if you look at the detail of the 160,000 jobs that they are claiming out of a number of filling stations that they see are operating 24 hours. It's laughable. You all know that filling stations were operating in this country before the NDC came to power. So to claim that about 300 or so filling stations are operating 24 hours as evidence of a functioning 24-hour economy program and 160,000 jobs announced out of it is laughable. A memorandum of understanding is not a pay slip. In Koko, a producer price of 41,000 CDs per ton was announced in February. Yet farmers reportedly remained unpaid even as at March despite a pledged $337 million dispersement. So they announced one thing, but the reality on the ground was another. Let's also talk about the unfinished business the government inherited and has still not dealt with. When the previous administration left office, approximately 98% of all debt eligible for restructuring had been negotiated.

[00:19:51]The domestic debt exchange restructured $20 billion equivalent and delivered debt service savings. The Euro bond restructuring is what delivered the stock reduction over $5 billion.

[00:20:06]Yet nearly two years on the remaining 2% just 2% somebody did 98% you are left with 2% to do. 2 years on that 2% about $2.7 billion is still unresolved under this government.

[00:20:23]And where are the promised independent fiscal council, the debt management office and other institutions? Have they been abandoned or delayed or quietly sheld? Or the new fiscal council? We saw an announcement that the new fiscal council has been put in place. Have they been cowed into silence already? As other critical voices are being called into silence by this administration.

[00:20:48]The fourth issue is that borrowing has already begun. Just 9 weeks after the IMF ECF ended and even before the IMF board considers the last ECF review, the executive is in parliament asking for nearly a billion dollars.

[00:21:06]The minority will scrutinize every pesa per post stems and collateral on where each city will actually go.

[00:21:14]Finally, we think that Thursday's presentation must disclose a few things with numbers and not just asurances.

[00:21:21]First, the actual halfyear execution line by line against allotment. And we'll be asking did the first quarter pattern persist or did it reverse?

[00:21:32]Second, a full decomposition of the primary surplus, structural revenue, gold windfall, expenditure compression, valuation effects, and one-offs. Third, one reconciled debt to GDP figure and the methodology they are using for it.

[00:21:50]Fourth, a current audited areas stock with a credible payment schedule tied to actual allocations.

[00:21:58]Number five, verified payroll employment for the big push and the 24-hour economy program and project level big push procurement disclosure. Number six, the true loss figure and the resolution plan for the Bank of Ghana. Remember, as we've mentioned, the minister has not presented it to parliament. A team of NDC persons came to parliament to do a press conference and understated it at 15 billion when it's actually 34. And if you take away the one of gold sales is about 44. So the true figure must now be published. Seventh sensitivity analysis on gold prices fuel costs and the city and number eight the status of the fiscal council and the independent debt management office that was promised as well as a refinancing plan for the growth agenda that names its sources.

[00:22:49]And here let me make this point. The minister has already started sounding the market that he's going to announce some new strategies tomorrow. Mr. Minister, this is a media review to assess performance.

[00:23:01]Policies have already been announced and funded. Any new policy will just be more settings, props, and audio announcements because they unfunded.

[00:23:12]Already you are struggling to fund the announced policies and promises. desist from the temptation to announce new cities, new policies, and new projects.

[00:23:24]Ladies and gentlemen, a country cannot build growth on unspent budgets, unpaid contractors, disputed debt numbers, and jobs that exist only on paper. On Thursday, the MPP through its minority in parliament will be in the chamber measuring the minister's statement line by line against this government's own published data. The Ghanaians deserve numbers and not narratives. We thank you and we'll take your questions at this point.

[00:24:06]Okay.

[00:24:15]PP policy coordination on finance and economy.

[00:24:33]GH finance minister finance minister numbers. economy.

[00:25:15]Primary balance.

[00:25:36]Bank of 40 billion Ghana cities almost$1 billion billion dollar 24man 24 women's organiz 2450 totalation 300 million.

[00:26:47]Finance, Bank of Ghana.

[00:27:15]colleagues. So we'll take your questions and depending on uh which of um our sub committees at the finance level um these questions are directed to. I'll deal with some I'll invite some of my other colleagues to also deal with some Yeah. So, we'll take a few >> if you don't have questions, we can end it here.

[00:27:39]>> Questions.

[00:27:43]>> Yes, sir. Sitting. Yeah. on.

[00:28:14]So I would uh give a response. I invite um any of my colleagues who feel moved by the spirit to join me. Well, first of all um if the Bank of Ghana says it will no longer fund gold B's gold purchase program, the question is why? The answer is that they have made significant losses on it. In September when we sounded the alarm, the loss was around $214 million and we asked for a probe and you recall that they blocked the probe in parliament. By the end of the year, it had risen to about $900 million. I'm sure you know what $900 million can do. How many agenda 111 hospitals it can complete so that nursing students can be recruited, doctors can be recruited, lives can be saved, how many contractors um you know could have been paid so that they will continue with projects in different parts of the country. $900 million is a lot of money. But because they refused and they pretended it wasn't happening, that's where the loss went to. Between January and June, they were still continuing. We are still computing what even that extra loss is.

[00:29:20]We'll give you that figure as we go along. But now the Bank of Ghana is confirming that what we said was true.

[00:29:26]And so they will no longer bear this loss. The government and the gold bomb will need to tell us how they are going to finance this loss because the structure they are running. If you buy gold at a premium price and sell at the world market price, you will make losses. So who's going to bear that loss? Is it the gold board or is it the finance ministry? They have to tell us where that loss will go. And what we have to do is to ask what the opportunity cost of that loss is. What else that money could have been used for? Millions of young Ghanaians who are looking for jobs if this money could not have been put into some initiatives which would have given them jobs. So we are waiting for them to tell us where they'll move that um loss to. But when the governor appeared in parliament a few days ago and they blocked the media from covering, one of his written answers explained that what is really anchoring the city is not the gold ball.

[00:30:16]It is the domestic gold purchase program. So even that narrative that they tell you that you know this government likes a lot of settings and PR narrative that narrative they tell you that is the gold board. The governor's answer shows clearly that that is not true and this is why they don't want you to hear from the governor himself. Colleagues, I don't know if anybody wants to add something to Dr. >> Well, thank you chairman. You put it rightly but we we have to put this stability in context when they say because of gold balls they have brought stability and therefore Ghanaians should accept the cost of of that stability.

[00:30:54]you can achieve stability without incurring the kind of losses that we saw under uh gold bought in the bank of Ghana and I give you some examples the inflation that we are talking so much about by the end of 2022 the inflation rate was 54% if you recall 54% and we all understood the circumstances the war was a factor because it it challenged global logistics movement, imported inflation, you know, and and many other reasons 54%.

[00:31:33]By the end of 2024, it had come down to 23%.

[00:31:38]That is a decline by 31 percentage points.

[00:31:43]They have brought it to to today what about 5%. So if a government that brought inflation from 54% to 23% 31 percentage point when decline can a government that brought it from 23% to 5% say it did better.

[00:32:03]Can that government say that it did better? One government brought it from 54% to 23%. It declined by 31 percentage points and the other brought it to now 5% from the 23%.

[00:32:19]That's about 18% or so. 18 percentage points.

[00:32:25]But we did it without incurring the losses that we are incurring today.

[00:32:31]So you cannot tell me that Ghanaians should accept the losses because it brought stability. another government brought down the inflation by more than what you did without incurring those losses. So that cannot be you know accepted.

[00:32:48]I I also talk about the depreciation itself. Depreciation of the city by the end of 2022 the city was depreciating at 52%.

[00:32:58]You remember when we said that Ghana had lost the international capital market?

[00:33:02]The city was depreciating by 52%.

[00:33:06]By the time we left government in in 2024, by the end of 2024, the city was depreciating by between 18% to 20%.

[00:33:15]So the government that brought the depreciation of the city from 52% to about 18 20% did not incur such losses.

[00:33:27]How can they then come and say that because of the losses incurred by the Bank of Ghana, we now have the stability? But another government achieve you know greater stability without incurring those losses. We talk about reserves. Today they are talking about 13 billion dollars. Before we left government we had built the reserves through the bank of Ghana to the tin of 9 billion US. We handed over 9 billion US in international uh uh reserves to them. we didn't incur those losses.

[00:34:07]So, so when you talk about stability and therefore the huge cost of 900 million US dollars justifies is justified because of that stability. I don't think Ghanaians, you know, will will just accept this. They must give us proper explanation.

[00:34:29]And I tell you, is it that they don't want the stability again? If the bank of Ghana is now announcing that they will seize the pre-inancing of gold B, gold purchasing, they don't want the stability again.

[00:34:44]They still want the stability. So why will they stop the financing of gold B?

[00:34:50]Already inflation has inched up from 3.4% to 5.3%. We are losing it. The city which was appreciating in 2025 remember they said the city appreciated by about 40%.

[00:35:04]From the beginning of 20 2026 to date the city has depreciated by about 8%.

[00:35:13]Depreciated by 8% is no longer appreciating the appreciation we saw in 2025. Today it is depreciated by 8%. And if you go to the market by more than 10%. don't they want the stability again? So why are they stopping the financing of the gold board purchases?

[00:35:30]And so let's don't take this this explanation which which I think is is is below the belt.

[00:35:40]Thank you. We'll take another round of questions. By the way, when Dr. Ming talked of reserves, uh you know the Bank of Ghana data shows that in the last about two to three months, our reserves have lost about$1.2 billion dollars. The minister needs to explain to us where those reserves are gone. Have they used it for market intervention i.e. pumping on the market which they have now coined a new phrase for which they call market intermediation or what?

[00:36:06]Where is the $1.2 billion of our reserves going to collections if there are any?

[00:36:14]Final batch of questions if there are any.

[00:36:39]The last point I would like to mention is that the energy sector, if you recall in In the 2026 budget statement, the Minister for Finance announced that they had spent $1.47 billion to clear the energy sector debts. Again, most of you media houses you carry the government clears energy sector debts. When you say clear energy sector debt, it means that you have repaid all debts outstanding in the energy sector. But that was the word used.

[00:37:17]Again, you didn't interrogate them. What do you mean by clear? But you all carried it. That's the propaganda.

[00:37:25]Indeed, the World Bank has projected that by the end of this year 2026, the debt in the energy sector will reach $9 billion.

[00:37:37]$9 billion.

[00:37:40]If the reforms, the energy sector reforms the government is supposed to implement have not been implemented, what does that mean?

[00:37:48]The same World Bank two weeks ago gave a damning verdict on this government's implementation of the same energy sector reforms. You published it.

[00:38:00]The World Bank said that the implementation of the energy sector recovery program was unsatisfactory.

[00:38:09]Unsatisfactory. That is the word used by the World Bank on this government's implementation of the energy sector reforms. And by their failure to implement the energy sector reforms, debts are accumulating. As I speak to you, fuel debts that have accumulated is quite huge. So what debts have they collected? Why would the debts end at 9 billion United States dollars by the end of 2026? And so the minister should use the review budget tomorrow to tell the Ghanaian public why they fail to implement the energy sector reforms and what measures they are going to put in place. They call themselves reset government to reset the implementation of the reforms and bring these reforms on track so that we avoid doomso. Otherwise the doomso we all don't like and we pray against this government is going to bring it back because the debts that have accumulated will compel them to give up the proper management of the energy sector. And so these are some of the questions we want them to answer. If under an IMF program, you have failed to implement the energy sector reforms, then what will happen now that we are not under an IMF program.

[00:39:28]And this is why I say sometimes that the IMF went to sleep. When this new government came into government, the IMF went to sleep because they had failed to hold this government accountable to the policies and reforms that they are supposed to be implementing. And this is why they have opted for the PCI to continue to be under IMF surveillance and supervision because they haven't implemented the reform they supposed to to implement. And so thank you ladies and gentlemen.