Parabolic market moves, characterized by accelerating price increases that become increasingly steep, typically end with consolidation phases where stocks may trade sideways for months before potentially resuming their upward trend. Investors should be cautious of late-stage parabolic moves because the risk-reward ratio becomes less favorable as prices rise, and the market eventually runs out of incremental buyers willing to take on the risk. This principle applies across various sectors, including semiconductors, where stocks like Micron, SanDisk, and Intel have shown parabolic behavior. The key is to recognize when a move is accelerating toward its end and adjust risk exposure accordingly, rather than trying to time the exact top.
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Semis Go PARABOLIC! What Happens NEXT? & IREN, CRWV, MELI Earnings追加:
Good evening traders and investors. Will back here with another one coming to you with a weekly market recap. Hopefully you guys had a very nice Thursday and then subsequently Friday session in the markets overall that you ended the week very strong and that you're off to a very nice start of the weekend as well.
Don't forget Mother's Day with all the gains that you may have been working in the markets. Buy something nice for your mom. So don't forget that please. So moving into the action, guys. I haven't seen you guys since Wednesday. I do apologize. Thursday and Friday evening, I was a little bit under the weather.
Had a little bit of a weird spring flu, but we're back in action, back to full power. So, we'll do the Thursday and Friday updates tonight and just wrap it all off with what we saw last week. So, got a lot of things to cover in today's video. The S&P and the QQQ's obviously at all-time highs. Friday, a very nice recovery day after Thursday's slight pullback. We do have some parabolic moves going on in the markets right now, which are very nice for people in, but for people considering getting in, there may be some cause for caution and concern. So, we'll talk about that in today's video. Obviously, we will break down today's video in a couple different parts. Number one, well, we're going to go over some earnings with you guys, okay? So, there's some very interesting earnings that unfortunately I missed with you guys last week. Today, we'll be doing IN, we'll be doing Cororeweave, and we'll be doing Marcato Libre. Now, shout out to every other company. If I have time today, I prepared the Rocket Lab earnings as well. If we have time, we'll get into it, but for this for the time being, I want to cover those three.
Shout out to all the other very interesting ones such as Celsius, Data Dog, McDonald's, and the other ones.
There's like 25 different companies that were very fun reporting earnings on Thursday. But in today's video, we're going to do the three ones that I think could be quite interesting for us. And if we have time, I'll do Rocket Lab. The reason I say if we have time is because there's a lot that I want to cover at the end of the video in terms of a lot of these moves, especially the moves to the upside that we saw across the semiconductor cohort on Friday. So, first we'll get into earnings, cover those three companies. Number two, we'll cover our technical analysis bases here by going through the S&P, the Q's, and most of our minor sectors. Check on the rotation and the market breath because there's a little bit of an issue here with the market rotation and the market breath that I want everybody to be paying attention to. After we're done that, we'll get into our big tech list and once again derive which of these big tech names are decent for swing trade opportunities or possibly long-term portfolio positions on a valuation basis. And at the very end of the video, this is what I want to focus on in today's action game. I want to focus on the biggest gainers and losers of the day on Friday because although there were some losers after earnings such as uh Cloudflare, Toast, Marcato, Libre, Corweave, etc., etc. We'll we'll tackle a few of those after earnings or for earnings of course, right? It really is.
Okay, I really want to put a lot of focus on the biggest winners of the day because we're starting to see the the parabolic climax in a lot of these names. It doesn't mean that they're done forever. It just means that similar to other parabolic moves and the sentiment associated with some of those parabolic moves when they're happening, you're starting to see some very interesting similarities that people just need to keep in mind. Especially if you are involved in these positions are thinking of being involved in these positions especially, right? If you're not in, you're feeling great deals of FOMO right now. Well, I just want to give you guys a decent dose of perspective. So, we'll do that at the end of the video. And that's going to be everything for today.
So, a lot of things to cover. It should be a very fun and action-packed video as they usually are. So, let's get into the action right away, shall we? So, the S&P on Friday up83, the Q's up 2 uh 2.34.
Both brand new all-time high records in the markets overall. So, very strong pushes here by the indexes in terms of the fear and greed index right now.
You're currently sitting at a 67. And this is not investor sentiment, right?
This is just a this is just a um summation of various different technical indicators. The distance from the EMAs, extreme greed. We've covered this in the most recent few videos, especially not so much in terms of the distance from the daily 12 or something like that. But look how far we are from the weekly moving averages on the SPY and on the QQQ's as well. Usually, you do not get that extended. It doesn't mean that we have to crash. It just means that well, you either are going to have a nice pullback or you're going to move sideways until the EMAs can possibly catch up, right? So, keep that in mind.
We are quite in extreme greed territory now in terms of distance from the EMAs.
Stock price strength right now has made its way back into the greed territory.
net new 52 week highs and lows on the New York Stock Exchange. You'll notice it's not as strong as in February because in February we had marginally better market breath. So although the market is leading higher, it is doing so on restricted breath and we got to pay attention to that stock price breath as measured by the Mlen volume summation index. I said that all wrong. The Mlen volume summation index, you can see here that we've been dropping off. Still in greedy territory, but nowhere close to where we were before the war started.
And that is a little bit of an issue right now. put to call options right now in extreme greed. Nobody is buying protection and also the VIX is at relatively neutral territory right now.
So keep that in mind. We'll tackle a few of those concepts when we run through our index portion of the video talking about rotation, talking about market breath, and talking about overall participation because you can see on Friday as well, the participation was definitely not unilateral across the board. As a matter of fact, it was again quite concentrated to where? Well, you guessed it. A lot of the big tech names and especially semiconductors lift lifting the cues in a very big fashion overall. Look at the gains on Micron, AMD, Intel even on Friday and Nvidia up about 2%, but I mean the rest of the semiconductor market had most of those gains. SanDisk was up 16%. Dell was up 13% overall. So, we'll talk about that at the end of the video. Don't worry.
The banks still not doing much of anything. Healthcare still not doing much of anything either. at the bottom half of the market. Definitely not doing much of anything. So, you're expanding here well beyond the EMAs with some very big days on lower and lower participation. And the last time that we saw that guys, you might remember was me highlighting the risks associated with this without being willing to call market tops. It's something you have to pay attention to. You know that it's coming. If the market breath does not improve, guys, these sectors, especially the parabolic ones, they cannot do all of the heavy lifting forever. So, keep that in mind. This is actually something you do not want to see. It doesn't mean the market is terrible. It just means that you have to take a bit of a pause, step back a little bit, and dive deeper into the index rotation and the index market breath. And when you see certain things like this happen, it just raises a little bit of a red flag. Now earnings have been fantastic all across the board but still the market can't always do everything on restricted breadth and restricted amounts of rotation. So keep that in mind. one day relative you'll see that even better technology basic materials cyclicals were up a little bit but a lot of the market was lagging behind on only one week relative guys same concept very concentrated uh action here on the top technology and basic materials your better performers communication services shout out to them but that's largely uh Google and meta which didn't have terrible weeks especially led by Google there to the down I mean look how many sectors are flat or down on the week right energy utilities energy because oil came down utilities still struggling against the higher yields right Now, healthcare and financials. Healthcare and financials, guys, are huge. Why? Well, because they're two very large weights in the market. Okay? You need health care and you need financials if you want to see the S&P a little bit more healthy. These sectors down here are a bit justified. I mean some days the data center specific industrials such as G Vernova and others sometimes they'll run with the broader tech train but by large and by far a lot of these other industrial names they are affected by u the higher energy costs and also the lack of interest rate cuts over the course of the year and the same can be said about utilities which is really beholden to the direction of interest rates for a lot of algorithmic trading. And the same can also be said about consumer discretionary and consumer staples. They really don't like elevated inflation. And what we've been seeing recently is indeed that the inflation prints have been coming in a little bit hot. Now, this should be temporary in nature, provided that the price of the barrel of oil can make its way to the downside over the course of the next few months as the conflict in the Middle East hopefully gets wound down in a timely fashion. The longer oil stays higher, well, the more pressure gets put on this whole segment of the market. So, keep all of that in mind when you're going through uh today's video and also the subsequent videos I'll be dropping into next week because unless you get a permanent end to the war, this is possibly going to continue until it stops. Meaning until tech and semiconductors pull back and maybe join the rest of the market to the downside or or or you get a permanent end to the war, then the bottom half of the market is able to actually get some lift while semis and tech can take a very welldeserved breather. Those are the conditions that you need in the current market landscape. Right? So before we get into more market analysis, more breath breath analysis, more rotation analysis, that was an introduction of what we'll be looking at today. For the time being though, let's start covering some earnings. And we're going to start off with a very fun company. We're going to start off with IN Thursday after the close. Now, speaking about parabolic moves, since we've been on the topic now since the introduction, you might notice that iron and a lot of the semiconductor cohort or rather the Neocloud cohort cohort had their exponential moves last year, right? Last year into September, etc. For the most part, all of them, right? And then what did they do? They consolidated in a big fashion. Doesn't mean that they went to zero. It just means that they embarked into a very long-standing phase of consolidation as they went into the execution layer. This was the big funding layer where a lot of these companies got a lot of their initial very big deals and now has been when they've been building all the data centers to serve the customers that have locked up a ton of money with them.
Right? So, as we analyze earnings from the Neoclouds, we want to know a few things. Number one, how far are they in their construction timeline? Are they executing properly? And in the process of building out these data centers, how much debt or how many shares are they off how much debt are they raising or how many shares are being diluted into the open market from these companies because they need to raise capital, right? You can only raise capital two different ways. number one need to access the private debt markets and number two need to access the public markets in forms of shared dilution or you know um in Irene's case at the money shelf offerings which is a form of shared dilution right so as we analyze these earnings keep in mind that the current quarter's numbers don't really matter whatsoever okay so you'll see here that they missed on EPS by about 240% it doesn't matter they're scaling the business they're not making money yet at least not a tremendous amount from their uh GPUs, right, from their data center clusters. And the same thing for revenue. Sure, they missed on the revenue estimates, but I'll remind you a lot of this current revenue right now is from their previous Bitcoin mining operations, which they are winding down in favor of deploying heavy GPU clusters for their AI business they're currently ramping right now. So, these quarterly earnings metrics arguably don't matter whatsoever. No, all we want to know for these NeoCloud providers are how many deals do they have in the pipeline? How many total gigawatts do they have in the pipeline? And are they executing properly with their construction timelines? How quickly can they get these data centers up and operational while they continue to raise capital?
Right? So it's basically a race for these neoclouds, whether it's Nebus, whether it's Cororeweave, whether it's can they scale these businesses while raising capital from shareholders and from private debt markets. Can they scale these businesses fast enough before they destroy too much shareholder value? It's kind of a race right now, which is why a lot of people enjoy these companies, but a lot of people also hate these companies. Okay, so keep that in mind when we go through these Iran earnings prints. But overall, it was a pretty good quarter for them. Very nice announcements. Let's get into it. So before I show you the very first couple of slides here, it's important to remember that IN was kind of left behind the pack. You might notice that they've expanded very recently. However, for a long period of time, Nebius is running far ahead of the crowd. Even Cororeweave had benefited from a tremendous rally off of the bottoms, and Iran was kind of left behind for a few key reasons.
Number one, they had not announced a new deal since their Microsoft deal last year, late last year, for about $9.7 billion in contract value, which was a 5-year term for about 200 megawws. And since that time, people have been patiently awaiting the next IRN deal.
When was it going to come? Well, that was all divulged on Thursday's earnings whereby they presented this very nice deal with Nvidia. So, Iran and Nvidia announced a strategic partnership to accelerate deployment of up to 5 gawatt of next generation AI infrastructure.
This deal for 5 gawatt represent about $3.4 billion in contract value under which IN will provide AI infrastructure cloud services for Nvidia internal AI and research workloads. This is a very nice deal overall. It was also supplemented with some rights. So, as part of the partnership, Iran issued to Nvidia a 5-year right to purchase up to 30 million shares of stock at an exercise price of $70 per share, which at the time of earnings was well above well above the current market value. So, it's a two-part deal. Number one, Nvidia is agreeing to buy up to $3.4 billion of compute power for their own internal research processes, which is very good.
This is a landmark deal for Iron overall and also Nvidia does now have the right to buy $2.1 billion of stock at $70 per share. Now, this is a right, not an obligation. They probably will follow through with it, but we don't know when that capital is going to be deployed by Nvidia, if at all, right? It probably will be, but we don't know if it's over the next 3 months or the next 6 months or the next 2 years. You don't know how Nvidia is going to deploy this 2.1 billion. But at least what it does do is it does a very big vote of confidence for Iran as a brand overall. Jensen Hong here saying deploying these systems at scales requires deep integration across the full stack compute, networking, software, power and operations. Iran brings the scale and infrastructure expertise to help accelerate the buildout of next generation AI infrastructure globally. Together we are building for the age of AI. So it does give a very big vote of confidence to the Iron brand overall. And this money right here, just pay attention to this, right? $3.4 billion of contract value, which is very good. However, the first question you should ask yourself is number one here with IN2.1 billion, those are rights. That's not a cash deal. It's not as if Nvidia is saying, I'll give you $2.1 billion now or I'll invest in your business directly now as they did with Cororeweave. This is a right for a future obligation to purchase. That being said, as well, this 3.4 billion of compute capacity right now. That being said, um, Nvidia is fronting none of this money. So, IN will have to get the money to build out this 5 GW somehow, and we're going to come back to it. However, this is a very good deal. Okay, but it's alo important to know both sides of the deal. How will Iran finance this obligation that Nvidia now has them contractually obligated under? Now, moving further, they did also acquire another thing called Morantis. So, Morantis, very nice open- source software here, building upon IN's existing software. Morantis has a track record of serving over 1500 enterprise customers globally and is a founding independent software vendor partner of the NVIDIA AI cloud ready initiative.
This was very interesting as well. For that they did spend about uh $650 million if I'm not mistaken. I have it here somewhere. Uh there it is. $625 million acquisition which was all stock by the way. Okay. So that is another slight little uh piece of the information piece of information that you do want to pay attention to when looking at IRN. Now, let's look through a few of their earning slides and once again determine how far are they along in terms of their construction. So, they're making very real progress at a lot of their very different sites. If you take a look right here, currently total customer ARR under contract is about 3.1 billion. They get another 3.4 billion with Nvidia, which is about.7 billion in ARR if we just break down this five 3.4 billion into 5 years. So, they'll be adding that on top of everything. They have a nice balance sheet here with $2.6 billion. However, this current quarter they build they burned a billion of that. So this 2.6 billion would technically give them a twoarter runway run rate with existing cash beyond which they either have to raise more debt or get direct investment from somebody right or number three well they'll have to possibly dilute shareholders once again. So you always got to keep that in mind guys to build these data centers the money's got to come from somewhere. Yeah, but they are doing really well in terms of scaling their offerings. Now, currently they have about 480 megawatts deployed. 1210 going to come online by 2027 and then 2028 plus you got a whole 5 gawatt pipeline which is a very very strong pipeline overall. As you can see here, the exit rate for this year is about 3.7. That's the existing 3.1 plus the additional.7 roughly from Nvidia uh coming into the next years or so. Now if you take a look at where they are exactly uh so the ARR targets right 3.7 with the Nvidia this is right here with 150k GPUs we're about 480 megawatt contracted at the end of this year in terms of where they are right now they're making further progress on their canal flats on children in Texas and also in street water in Texas which just obviously got their uh power online very recently. This was news about 3 weeks ago overall. And if we take a look at the expansion pipeline here, where is all their power going to be deployed?
You can see right here, we got a ton in Canada, 80 megawatts in Mackenzie, 50 megawatts in Prince George, 30 megawatts in Canal Flats. This was their previous Bitcoin operations, which they will now be progressively converting into AI operations. And this is important because this is the reason why you're currently seeing some misses on revenue and some current misses on earnings.
Okay? because they're converting uh those sites over to uh AI. Then you have the very big factories here, one in Childris in Texas, 750 megawws. The Street Water uh in Texas as well, which is where Microsoft's going to have their capacity. And also a uh new obligation here, 1,600 megawatts in Oklahoma. Very good. But additionally, they just acquired this very interesting company right here called Nostrom. So, Nostrom Group is a company for which they paid about $160 million very recently here over the course of the quarter for an additional 500 megawatt. Last quarter, IN had 4.5 gawatt in total eventual compute capacity. Now, it's up to five.
If you're wondering where that extra.5 came from, it is from the acquisition here of Nostrom Group in Spain, which is very interesting. Okay. overall uh it gives them access closer access to Europe and additionally at the same time they are potentially making inroads into some data centers in the future. Nothing announced right now but in Australia as well. So they're trying to secure grid access in or around Australia to possibly have some operations in uh the AsianPacific uh whole region of the market. Right. So very interesting push into Europe. Obviously, they're all around North America right now and then maybe even in Australia, too. So, keep all that in mind. And then, of course, their Morantis obligation. Now, all of this expansion into various areas. And while they're converting their Bitcoin operations here towards AI operations, it's costing them some money. So, here's the revenue mix shift right now. You'll notice that Bitcoin mining revenue through um you know, 2025 was a bulk of their revenue currently, but now that's been coming down. Why? because they're pivoting the A6 towards GPUs, Nvidia GPU clusters for AI. So now their cloud services revenue as you can see is taking more and more of a share of the revenue PI which is very good but obviously there is an operational cost to making that switch which is why over the course of the past two quarters I has been missing some of their revenue some of their EPS estimates. It's not a big deal. It's all part of the transition. This should largely be known by overall investors. So, that being said, those are the main highlights from IN's earnings call. These the two-part deal with Nvidia, the 3.4 billion for 5 gawatts, which IN will have to find the money to build somehow because Nvidia did not front them the money as opposed to other deals that you can find across Nebius or uh potentially even Cororeweave, right, when people start to pay upfront. So, keep that in mind. and also the um the rights at uh $70 per share with a $2.1 billion uh price tag on those which just gives the brand a very big vote of confidence from Nvidia.
Still unsure when Nvidia is going to deploy this but still so a very strong quarter from them adding to their um operations here in Europe with the acquisition of Nostrom Group and exploring further things in Australia.
So suffice to say the future is looking very good for Iran overall. But you will remember when we provided the introduction to this company, right?
These styles of companies are a trade-off. They are spending tons of money now for revenues in the future.
Meaning investors will have to sit through the execution phase. Right? Last year we had the big funding phase. Now is the execution phase. They will be raising capital through the debt markets while they do construction on these data centers, potentially trying to acquire new clients. And then at the end of the execution phase when most of these facilities are online, then we finally get to see the exit rates of revenues that these companies are going to generate and how profitable these companies can be while paying down the debt obligations that they were using to build out the infrastructure in the first place. So it was a good earnings from IN right now over the next few years. You can see the uh exit rates of the ARR here are huge. 110% revenue growth over the next few years. I mean the revenue expansion is no joke guys, right? When these factories come online, they're going to be absolutely massive.
Look at this revenue forecast, right?
Forecasting by 2029 here to have an exit rate of about $8 billion in ARR. And that's kind of service revenue ARR, right? To where it's just recurring revenue at that point in time because I mean the whole world is compute constrained right now. So they will be utilizing all of these data centers.
Every GPU will be turned online. That's not the issue whatsoever. The issue with these companies, as I've said, is the two sides of the coin, right? Uh, do you want to do you want to trust the company in being able to dilute shareholders through at the money offerings such as the capital raise that they did not too long ago, $6 billion when the stock was down here. Six at that point in time, the market cap was about 13 billion.
They did a $6 billion at the money shelf offering of shares. That at that current time was about 50% of the company's entire market cap. So obviously a very big dilutive event. However, for some shareholders, some shareholders won't mind because that money is being properly utilized to build out the data centers that they need to uh you know get more and more clients and get these investments or these contractual obligations from companies like Microsoft and companies like Nvidia as well. So, you could argue that the company is raising into their shareholders for very good things, right? At the same time, keep in mind that they only have 2.6 billion in cash on their balance sheet. They burned a billion dollars. So this is like two to three quarters of further cash on the balance sheet before they will have to use some of this $6 billion at the money shelf offering, right? They'll have to basically sell shares in the open open market to shore up the balance sheet a bit more or they'll have to access the debt capital markets such as companies like Cororee do and basically raise debt. Right? So it's the execution phase right now. The exit rate for these companies especially at 5 gawatt is absolutely massive and there is still some very interesting opportunities for IN 2 3 4 years right so is INValued here at 60 bucks arguably well in terms of today's current revenues you'd say it's overvalued in terms of where they're going through 2028 2029 2030 as a matter of fact at 60 bucks it is still a very decent deal now best risk-to-reward you might remember on the channel I was saying was clearly down here into the low 40s and high30s. That's where you find the best riskreward. But up here at 60, it's not bad. And if anything, if these stocks compress a little bit more, you know that you're buying very strong revenue growth for the future, a very interesting 5 gawatt pipeline, which potentially could be further expanded with further endeavors into Europe and maybe even Australia. So, we got to keep that in mind as well, right? It's just that currently what you will have to go through are news releases surrounding dilution. either convertible notes through debt capital raises because that's how a lot of these companies want to do it or the company possibly deploying okay share sale events into the open market which will dilute current shareholders which just means the more they dilute shareholders guys the better their EPS growth is going to have to be in the end or no or if not it won't be worth it at the end of the day these companies are a function of riskreward does the reward of investing in these businesses at these prices well at least for IN does the reward currently outweigh the risk I certainly do think so but there is a cut off point for me I do not mind buying IN shares from the 60 down to let's say 30 range but as we start to move further into the prices that's when the riskreward kind of gets a little bit less manageable so personally I don't mind buying Ian in these levels but it will be a bit of a bumpy path forward as we know from their own earning size right the power is not all coming online at the exact same time as a matter of fact you will have to Wait, most of it, the bulk of it, as a matter of fact, comes online only really beyond 2027. So there will be a lot of execution risk here over the next 12 to 18 months. But as a function of risk-to-reward as an IR investor myself, I do believe that it's worth it to see these through to the other side because I still believe that there is just not enough compute in the world and that even our estimates of how much compute needed over the next 3 to four, 5 years is probably still a little bit light.
That is everything for your INEN earnings. And now let's talk about company number two which is part of the same cohort which also had their earnings on the very same day which was Coreweave. Now Cororeweave actually went I didn't even mention what IN's share price did um after the after the news was announced. Right? So INitially went up like 25%. And then when people realized that Nvidia actually didn't commit any money, they only committed basically their brand, which is very solid still and a right to purchase above 70, people were like, "Oh, there's no net new money now and I's going to have to fund most of it themselves."
Okay, well, you know, maybe we're a little bit too bullish, so they brought it down. Anyways, I digress. We we presented why and both sides of the coin. Now, let's move into core. Sorry about that. Let's move into core. Okay, they were down 11.4% 4% after their earnings. Even though they had strong earnings, guys, in terms of the forward growth outlook for the business, the current operational earnings were not the best. They missed on EPS again by 21.1%. Very heavy cost with this business. They did beat a little bit fractionally on the revenue estimate by 5.5%, the market sold them off anyways.
Now initially when they dropped their earnings there was a positive reaction but sadly we sold off thereafter and then we sold off into the actual Friday session as well resulting in about an 11 12% drop. So let's take a look at some of the core numbers and we will relate them back to each other. Okay, we'll relate cororeweave to Ian to Nebius because there are some differences right here. So let's do it right now. So some of the easy numbers for little core right here. You can see that they grew revenue 112% year-over-year which was massive. They now have a $99 billion backlog, which is truly legendary. Take a look at the growth of their backlog right here just over the last four quarters, guys. Absolutely massive increase in the total backlog. Very interesting to see. Take a look here at gross income. It actually beat that was 89% year-over-year. Gross income was good. However, the margins debatable, right? Little bit of a miss on margin right here as opposed to last year's margins. And here's where it kind of all falls apart, right? So earnings margins EBITDA right 55.7 they missed right there that's down year-over-year the operating income as well that was down year-over-year as well last year was 16.6 six now only at uh 1% so they missed on the estimate. So you can see here the operating income, operating margins getting crushed and as a result EPS also getting crushed in the process.
But it makes perfect sense, right?
There's a lot of upfront cost to scaling a lot of these data centers and that's what Corey is currently going through.
Now Cory is no stranger to raising debt either and we're going to talk about that. A lot of people have a problem with this company which is their debt profile and I really don't blame them to be quite frank with you. We'll touch upon it real quick. So if we see some of the earnings highlights from Core overall very nice execution multiple new agreements number one with Meta for a new $21 billion commitment that was signed in the month of March. I will remind you they did get a deal from Meta late last year. The initial deal from Meta was 14.2 billion in September of 2025. Now they got an additional 21 billion here in March. That was very well received by the markets overall too. Excuse me. I'm jumping ahead right there. multi-year agreement with Anthropic to support the development of uh the Claude family of AI models.
Unfortunately, this didn't actually come with any dollar figures, but it was very strong and it's probably a multi-billion dollar deal, except for I don't have any dollar figures for you guys right now.
So, just keep that in mind. But very interesting that Anthropic is uh putting their money behind Core Weef overall too right now in terms of compute capacity.
They also signed other obligations with very interesting AI companies such as Coher, Jane Street, and Mistl. Jane Street was probably a bigger news headline for them uh at least last month. Jane signed Jane Street signed a $6 billion AI cloud deal with them and also made a $1 billion equity investment at 109. So So that was also a very powerful uh deal for them too.
Additionally, you got a uh current run rate, right? or sorry, you got an initial invest or you got an additional investment by Nvidia of $2 billion over the course of the quarter which is very strong. Nvidia just went out the open market and just purchased class A stock which is very good. And where we currently stand in terms of the power capacity here, they surpassed 1 gawatt of active power. They expanded total contracted power by more than 400 megawatts to over 3.5 gawatt while further diversifying the portfolio of providers. Their backlog is huge. Okay, 3.5 gawatts of potential total power and they expanding their long turning their long-term standing relationship with Nvidia to accelerate the buildout of more than 5 GW of AI factories by 2030.
So 3.5 plus your 5 are currently sitting on core right now at approximately a 2030 goal of around 8 gawatt which is absolutely massive for this company overall. So please keep that in mind too. Now, in terms of their forward guidance, here are the exit rates. So, the next quarter, 2.45 to 2.6 billion.
If you forgot where they are, well, they're right there right now. They're at about a 2 billion uh revenue run rate for this current quarter. So, next quarter 2.45 to 2.6. Look at the exit rate, though. 12 to 13 billion in revenue for the end of 2026. Very solid.
Now, they will be making more operating income right here, but may still be running at a loss because those debt obligations are no joke. Right now, their interest expenses, as you can see, for the quarter, guys. I mean, look at the adjusted operating income. Look at your interest expenses, very high, extremely high capital expenditures to build all these data centers, 31 to $35 billion, which is coming from a lot of their debt capital raises that they had to do. And now you can see that they have an exit ARR. So coming into 2027 with annual recurring revenue obligations of about 1819 billion very strong numbers guys they are scaling extremely rapidly however it is coming at the expense of who of current shareholders because of the sheer amount of debt that the company has right now employing over $35 billion of debt and counting. This will erode margins it will erode free cash flow similar to IRN overall too. The only company that's not currently severely underwater in terms of their debt obligations is Nebius.
Nebus gets some of the best financing terms. They're able to get a lot of uh deals whereby the companies commit to a portion of the capital upfront. They do not have to dilute shareholders that much and also they have more cash than other companies too. Nebias's financing terms or how they structure deals are arguably the best in the game. Okay. IRN is the company that does the most amount of shareholder dilution. Cororeeve is the company that does the most amount of debt capital raises. So they're all a little bit different. Okay, so that being said, Corore right now with those current numbers and the fact that they currently have 49 data centers worldwide. If you just move further here, they got a tremendous amount of stuff here, guys. I mean, the revenue is growing nicely. Operating income is getting crushed for obvious reasons.
They're in the buildout phase. The net losses are mounting for obvious reasons.
They're in the buildout phase too.
Revenue backlog absolutely massive.
Nothing to say there. Capex, we saw we we said it before. Obviously, they'll have to do a ton of capex right there.
And if we take this one slide right here, they're increasing their amount of loads, right? So, six new data centers added in Q1, bringing their total up to 49, several in Europe, most though in North America. So, Cor is also expanding fairly nicely. Corweave, iron, Nebius are the exact same type of company, right? At the end of the day, well, they're not exactly the same. There are certain minute differences here and there, but at the end of the day, it's the exact same thing. Companies generating a tremendous amount of revenue in the future, but to generate that revenue, they got to take on a lot of debt, do a whole bunch of capex with the potential that with perfect execution, eventually they will be positive in terms of net income and in terms of positive EPS as well. That however will not come at least for the next few years for these companies. So the question we shall always was ask ourselves is a risk-to-reward question.
Does the risk that this company's taking on so much debt, okay, does that outweigh the possible rewards? In my opinion, the risk does not outweigh the rewards. You actually can find some very decent rewards on this company overall.
At 114, they're currently trading at a five forward price to sales for this year. And by 2028, you're trading at 2.65 forward price to sales. They won't be profitable for a few years to come, nor on net income, nor on a adjusted gap EPS, adjusted non-GAAP EPS basis. But still, is this company going to be here to stay or will they eventually go bankrupt in four or five years because they took on too much debt and they're just not utilizing the capacity of their data centers? I don't think that that's an actual risk to the business. Who knows? I might be wrong. But that's why the market, guys, is always a game of probabilities. Does the reward outweigh the risk? In my opinion, I do truly believe so. Here, Cororeef trading at about a $62 billion market cap. I really do think this company can be an eventual hundred $150 billion company into the final stage of their scales buildout.
Talking 2028, 2029, 2030. If it does it sooner, all right, great. But I have a timeline here from 2028 to 2030. And I truly do believe the company can still generate some significant ROI for shareholders. However, as a shareholder, you have to understand the risks to this business. For every deal headline that you get that can see the stock jump 10 20%, you possibly will find another headline whereby the company is either raising capital with more debt or raising capital via diluting shareholders. So, those are the things that you will have to contend with.
You'll have to get the good headlines with all the deals. You have to get the neg negative ne negative headlines with the capital raises and come to terms with the fact that whether or not you think that the capital raises or the shareholder shareholder dilution are going to be worth it for you as an investor or if you just would rather stick with a very different business model altogether. I can't blame you either way. You guys already know I've said it many times on the channel. My biggest one of my Neocloud positions is Nebius. Corweave and Irene are my two smaller ones overall, but I am in all three and I will be holding all three for the longerterm expansion thesis of the Neo Clouds as a whole. So that's everything I had for you guys for Cororeweave and for IN consequently. Now let's change gears a little bit and let's cover another one of my very well not that I and Corv are my favorite businesses in the market, but this is Melly is another one of my favorite businesses in the market. Um, and I'll be looking forward to buying the dip on some of these shares because you'll notice here, McConnell Libre, previously they had some misses, but now we've had four quarterly misses in a row. Missed on EPS four quarters ago, missed on EPS 3 quarters ago, missed on EPS two quarters ago, and missed on EPS this quarter as well. But what have they not been missing on? Four quarters ago, revenue, they beat revenue two three quarters ago, they beat two quarters ago, they beat. And now this one, they beat by more. So, as they've been sliding on EPS, they've been growing revenue a lot faster. And this will be the subject of our discussion for Marcato Libre. The stock has been coming down over the course of the past 3 four quarters because their margins have been compressing. And if you guys know anything about Wall Street is that they love topline revenue growth. But what they really love more is when a company is able to grow margins. And when you see margins sliding here for the past four quarters, both on operating margins and net margins, well, some people take a little bit of a pause. But there is some things that are referred to as good uses of margin erosion. And then there is other times where a company shouldn't be losing margin, but they are possibly because they're being eroded by competitors and they have to they have to drop their prices and stuff like that. This is not the case. This is a case of where Melly is making strategic investments. They are taking hits in terms of short-term margin compression, but they are going for big big big topline growth. And so far, the strategy is working. The stock price may not lead you to believe that the strategy is working because it's down, but don't be fooled by this price action and by the negative sentiment around the stock.
Their topline growth is exploding and they continue to capture so much market share in their end markets. So let's take a look at their numbers in a bit more of a deep dive fashion. So Marcato Libre, let's take a look at some of the numbers right here. Their numbers were absolutely insane. Total revenues 49% year-over-year. Commerce division 47% year-over-year growth. Fintech 51% year-over-year growth. Commerce gross merchandise volume right 42% year-over-year. Commerce items sold 47% year-over-year. Fintech total payment volume 50% per year. However, at the expense of their margins, they're making very big pushes. They have two divisions very clearly. Commerce and fintech. They are trying to take over Latin America in both. They've been making very good strides in commerce over the past few years. They dominate that market.
Fintech. They are continuing to grow and grow and grow and are a very large player in the fintech segment overall.
However, it's coming at the expense of short-term margin compression. You can see here they missed on operating margins. They missed on operating income overall. The estimate was 7.7 for operating margins. It came in at 6.9 last year, 12.9%. And they also missed on EPS as a result of that margin compression. Now, take a look at Marcato Libres's topline revenue growth.
Absolutely ridiculous, ridiculous revenue growth here over the course of the past four or five years to the dominant player in e-commerce and fintech that they are today. Notice over the past four quarters while margins have been compressing, you can see these EPS misses here, subsequent EPS misses, the compression of their margin, which I'll show you in the further further chart right here. Well, I guess I'll compare them right away. Okay, look at the past um look at the past four quarters or the past four or five quarters of margin, right? Top line right here is your operating margin.
Okay, the bottom line, orange, is your net margin, margin compression. But at the same time, okay, if they were taking a gamble, if they were saying, "Listen, we're going to compress margin. and we're going to go for growth and then they end up not growing. Well, then you have a problem, right? However, look at this revenue expansion again. They are accelerating the revenue expansion at the expense of margins. So, these investments that they're doing are paying off in other words. Okay, so that is the highlight of Marcato Libre's earnings. Very important to understand the distinction between the two. Moving on a bit further here, some commentary by management in terms of these margins during the earnings call. The margin compression reflects our choice to invest in strategic initiatives and the results of each investment reinforce our conviction that we're taking the right steps to build the largest and most engaged commerce and fintech platform in Latin America. Our investments uh our investment decisions are guided by clear observable evidence and that evidence tells us that now is precisely the right moment to invest boldly in a market with significant multi-year growth runways ahead. And the numbers don't lie. The revenue acceleration is there. And as I said, that comes at the expense of margin compression. Now, speaking about some of their quarterly KPIs, their key performance indicators. Look at the amount of unique buyers. Continues to grow up, go up across their commerce platform. Very solid. 84 million unique active buyers, which is actually massive growth year-over-year. That is 26%. Very solid right there. Marketplace highlights, GMV, no problem growing this as well. Consolidated 36%. Items sold, 47% year-over-year, which is very, very, very strong right there. same day, next shipments, same and next day shipments, 199 million, which is a 39% increase over year. They've been investing heavily in their logistics network to make themselves as efficient as someone like Amazon, and it's working. You see acceleration here in same and next day shipments. So, those investments are paying off. items sold per unique active buyer. That's down a little bit from the Q4 period. But Q4 is usually their best seasonal period just like Amazon by the way in terms of the commerce division.
So I wouldn't look too much further into that. Overall fintech services highlights monthly active users very strong push right there. 29% year-over-year. 83 million monthly active users overall very strong. Their services highlights from fintech assets under management almost 20 billion which is very strong. Their credit portfolio is accelerating. That is an 87% year-over-year increase in their credit portfolio. It does come with a few caveats, however. They're trying to do the shotgun approach. They're trying to onboard as many customers as humanly possible. Now, of course, in the process of that, well, while you're accumulating some flowers, you also do accumulate some weeds, right? But a lot of these companies go through that same process.
Meaning that their credit, the amount of money that they set aside for losses is growing right now. So you can see fintech services highlights here. Net interest margin after losses. Although they're growing their credit portfolio and growing the AUM, you can see that their net margins here are compressing.
Okay? So that is a function of going for the shotgun approach, trying to attract as many customers as possible.
Eventually, if they acquire some bad customers that won't ever come back because they either go overdue or don't pay their balances, that's the cost of the shotgun approach, right? They're trying to do the shotgun approach and just try trying to accumulate as many customers across ED markets as possible, but their net interest margins are taking a hit in the process. As a shareholder, you have to understand this and you have to be okay with their decisions doing this overall. past dues, 15 to 90 days and over 90 days, you can see it is on the rise. 15 to 90 days past due is going up and over 90 days past due although it's not egregious right now. It's an uptick from last quarter, but 15 to 90 is definitely on the upswing right there. And provision coverage as well. Provision coverage re remains exactly the same, but it is more money as you accumulate more customers.
However, as a percentage, it does remain the same. It just means that there is a slight deterioration here. slight deterioration in credit quality and the amount of losses that they have to take to that's the cost of them trying to acquire all these customers, right? It goes hand in hand. So, that being said, if we take a look at further financial metrics for the uh commerce net revenues in terms of their services versus product sales, you can see the division right there. Very strong growth overall.
Nothing bad to say. The take rate is very good. financial metrics too, fintech net revenues per user. You can see here from credit revenues, they're making a lot more money from fintech product sales a little bit and financial services and income very strong overall.
So that user growth is no joke, but like I said, it's coming at the expense of some margins. Income from operations and margin here, you can see that margin compression, net income and margins, you can see that compression as well, although I showed it to you on a different graph. So overall for Marcato Libre guys, very strong quarter. The main takeaway should be this, the function that they're improving commerce and their fintech platforms at very fast paces. If you did not see these big numbers from both commerce and fintech, you could argue that perhaps perhaps the dwindling dwindling margins were not worth it. However, as a shareholder myself, I want to see this company do that. I want to see them try and just dominate their entire niche or rather niches which are rather not niches but their very large end markets across Latin America that they're going for. I want to see them plow money into the fintech platform and try to get as many users as possible because those are then converted to lifetime value. And the same thing for e-commerce, right?
They're building the largest logistical network in all of Latin America with the fastest shipping and delivery times.
that requires money to do. Just ask Amazon when they spent, you know, 10 12 years scaling their e-commerce division to the juggernaut that it is currently today. And it came at the expense of net margin. So, this is a play out of Amazon's book. It worked well for Amazon. They were able to dominate their end markets. And so far, it's working very nice for Marcato Libre as well.
That being said, the revenue growth here over the next few years is phenomenal.
If you take a look here, look at this company. This company trades for $82 billion right now. Look at this revenue growth though over the future, right?
Because of the fintech and uh the um commerce divisions, right? 2026 we're going to be about $40 billion run rate.
Look all the way up to 2028. That's 60 billion and then 2029 73 billion. This company is about to double the revenues again over the next four or five years.
Substantial increases. And although we have some short duration uh EPS, well rather not so much compression, they're still growing every year. the growth rate is not very strong, right? So, keep that in mind. But it will be coming back. Marcato Libre has no problem to improve margins if they want to. And this is the takeaway from this. You'll notice from 2020 through 2024, they had no pro if they want to improve margins, they can do it. They've shown us their ability to do that in the past. It's just that in the last year or so, they've seen a chance to take advantage of their scale and really just go for even further of a shotgun approach and try to just crush all ED markets and really go to accumulate the most amount of customers possible. So, it's not the fact that they can't improve margins.
It's the fact that management through the earnings highlights the earnings call high that they don't want to go for margin expansion right now. They're going for topline revenue growth, mass customer acquisition, and as a result, their margins are suffering. So that's what you got to pull out from this EPS chart right there. That being said, over the next few years, revenue growth rate on an annualized basis, 25.7% per year, phenomenal EPS growth over the next few years, 34% year-over-year growth, not so much this year, but into next 2027, 28, 29, when they go for margin expansion once again, it's going to be pretty huge. Now, all that being said, at the current price right now at about 1,600 bucks, is this company a buy? Well, let's do some math right here. At 1650, they trade for a 37 times Ford earnings.
They trade for a 1.09 peg because they're growing EPS so fast over the next few years. And they trade at a 2.09 price to sales, which is fantastic, right? If we just use normal EPS calculations and we were to go out and we say, listen, let's give them a very fair because they won't be growing EPS at 35% 35% plus forever, right? Let's just say we go out into 2028 and we give them a 30 times a 30 time Ford multiple in 2028 at the current EPS print, which is $90, right? Let's just say $90. It gives you about $2,700 per share. And that's at a very fair 30. That's like base case, right? bull case would be 35 or 40 times uh Ford P, which would not be crazy for a company growing this fast. But just at 2,700 bucks, it gives you a uh an ROI potential of 64% above current share price. That's a pretty good uh return for the next 2 years. Not bad at all. Now, let's just say, yeah, but I can't trust their EPS. What if they continue to get crushed on uh their operating margins and they just scale back the CPS growth? Okay, well, we can take price to sales. They currently trade at about a two. Amazon trades roughly around a three 3.5 at any given moment, right? Because also Amazon doesn't have the most tremendous margins right now. So let's just say we take them on a forward price to sales basis.
Right now they're arguably cheaper than they should be. And let's say we give them expansion up to 2.5 to three just on price to sales, right? So 2.5 to three if we were to take 60 billion times 2.5, right? That's about $150 billion in um market cap, right? or rather uh well in total uh revenues excuse me right so if we give them that okay and means that at 150 that should be your market cap right well 150 divided by 82.7 that'll give you about an 81% ROI and that's at 2.5 times Ford sales if the market lets them expand to a three times price to sales well you guys can do the math right 3 time 60 billion revenue run rate in 2028 put you at 180 billion in terms of market cap which would be an ROI over currently at about 117% %. So you can see whether we use a base or we even expand them on a bull to three times sales or 35 times for orderings whatever you want the riskreward is very good meaning there's not much risk at current share prices versus the possible reward that you may stand that you may stand to uh to arrive to right so that being said I know as in I get a lot of questions about this company especially over the last let's call it 8 n months because the share price has just been going down right however what you need to know is when the share share price is coming down. Is the business still executing? Don't forget, when you buy a company, guys, you're not just buying a stock price, you're buying a business. If the business is continuing to execute very well and they're doing what they say they're going to do and they're having some good uh economies of scale right now, well, then you would trust them and you would be a buyer down here because the reward does currently outweigh the risk. So, Marcato Libre, I still do believe this company is phenomenally undervalued right now, which is why, and I said this since under 2,000. I'm just buying. You know, whenever I have cash and it comes into some DCAs every two weeks or every month or something like that, and I can find this business under $2,000 a share, I buy. I'm very simple like that, right? Right. So, if they come down here around the $1,600 to $1,300 range, which would be surprising, but you know, it can happen. I'll be buying a little bit heavier and just building my position because I think the where this company is going is a whole lot higher than $82 billion over the next 3, four, 5 years. And I do want to trust in management to make the right decisions to continue to execute their business model across an entire continent and really be one of the largest well the largest commerce player by far but also one of the very big fintech platforms in all of Latin America. So Micardo Libre down here for me is indeed a buy. And with that that wraps up all three of our earnings presentations for the day. I was hoping to get through them a little bit quicker than I did but you know it is what it is. Hopefully I was able to give you guys some context because as I always say guys, I can go through these numbers in 2 minutes like other people do, right? Oh, revenues are great, margins were down, so just pay attention to those margins and it's undervalued down here and it is what it is. But it's all about the context. Understand these things, right? I'm not just going to give you guys the numbers and say, "Well, I think it's cheap, but you have to go do your due diligence on your own and figure out what all these numbers mean." If I don't give you context, it means nothing. And I kind of, you know, cuz I know the other financial channels as well. I just hate channels that just run through the numbers and say like, "Oh, well, here's the uh here are the numbers. Here's the income statement.
Here's the balance sheet." And uh you know, like I like it, but it is what it is, right? Just trust me, bro. You know what I mean? At least I give enough context for you guys to at least make an educated decision. Or if you guys want to explore further past like I was talking about the operating margins or the scaling of revenue, at least you guys have a better a better indication of what to look for moving forward or at least better indication of what to look for if you were to do any additional due diligence over and above what I present in the videos. So that's why I go so deep into certain things as opposed to just giving you guys a two-minute summary. If I just wanted to do a two-minute summary of earnings, I could give you guys like five, six, seven, eight earnings reports per day, but you would have context behind none of them.
And I don't think that really helps people at all because the first thing I always want to do on this channel is give education, not so much just give fish, right? I kind of want to teach people how to go fishing and not just give fish. Say, "Oh, this company's a buy down here. I'm buying." But not not even say why. Right? So that's it for me guys in terms of that overall. Now let's move in to the good old S&P 500 and our index rundown, shall we? So the good old S&P 500. Let me just move myself over and let's get into it. So, we just wrapped up another very big earnings week. Ton of very fun companies. AMD was the highlight of the week, of course.
Into next week, what do we have? What could possibly impact this price action?
Well, in terms of next week's highlights, we don't really have that much in terms of the macro fundamentals, but couple key interesting things here.
CPI on Tuesday. We know the talk of the town right now has been all around inflation because of the price of the barrel of oil. We will see what those impacts on CPI will be. You got producer price impacts as well with the PPI coming out on Wednesday. Then on Thursday you also have retail sales. So we will see with the possible higher energy prices have consumers been pulling back on spending and by how much. The expectation here is6 versus 1.7. Last week, what helped the markets as well, not only with all of the earnings, especially from semiconductor companies, was the fact that on Friday, we got a pretty good non-farm payroll sprint. 115K versus 62 expected and a 4.3% um unemployment rate, which is around historical lows. Thursday, I didn't see you guys on Thursday. So, initial jobless claims came in under the expectation at 200k. challenge of job cuts still remains a bit high as many tech companies seek to uh cut some labor of course with some AI gains but also because a lot of those companies hired a lot too many hired way too many people in 2021 2022 but I digress ADP employment change on Wednesday was also pretty healthy at 109K versus the 99 expected and Joel's job openings shows that there's still a lot of jobs in the current economy right now so the job supports by large and by far we're pretty good but you know what that doesn't help that doesn't really help the case for interest rate cuts does it right if you have higher infl inflation and a dwindling jobs market, but you know that the inflation may just be temporary in nature, meaning you end the war, oil comes down, maybe the Fed can look into cutting interest rates later on this year because the inflation part of the mandate will be solved. If the jobs were weak, that pushes that even further, right? However, if you know inflation is temporary in nature, but is still high, but the jobs market is doing fine, well, then you kind of got going to restrict the odds of cutting rates throughout the end of the year, right?
It'd be one thing if the jobs market was falling off a cliff, then you could argue that even if inflation is elevated, the Fed could possibly be pushed towards cutting interest rates to save the labor market and kind of, you know, say that inflation is transitory, which was their favorite word a few years ago, right? But now with the jobs market being relatively healthy still, it kind of takes rate cuts off of the table overall, which is why you did have some pullbacks in financials and some interest rate sensitive sectors over the course of Friday, okay? Over the course of the day, even though there was no uh negative news, per se, in the market, so to speak, right? So keep that in mind.
Now, moving into the earning cycle of this week, you'll see that it's a lot less serious than in weeks prior. Sure, there's a few com some u some companies here that are quite fun like Circle and HMS and ESTS or Nebus on Wednesday and other things of that nature, right? But nothing very huge over the course of this week. So, we are now wrapping up earning season overall. Still a few fun names here and there, but nothing truly serious for the markets overall. And as we kind of wind down earning season, here is your earning scorecard for Q1 of 2026 with 89% of all S&P 500 companies having reported so far. 84% of them have reported a positive EPS surprise and 80% of them have reported a positive revenue surprise. That is extremely strong. For Q1, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P was 27.7% which is is excessively high. So if you are wondering why the markets can continue to move higher even though we still have the Middle East situation as an overhang, well that is why. because earnings has been has been excessively excessively strong for the markets overall. The scorecard has been very good. Now, that being said, we two things can be true at the same time. You could say that earnings are very good, but you can also argue that the markets may be a little bit extended right now on the daily RSI on the S&P. We are currently clipping into the 75 range.
It's been overextended now for the past few weeks. And also, we are doing so off of some restricted market breath. Take a look at the rotation, right? So you'll see based off of the heat map on Friday, it's no surprise that the market breath, as we've highlighted many times over the past week and a half of trading, that the market breath hasn't been very good.
Okay. Now, if you take a look at the percent of stocks above their 20-day EMA, we are down here at 53%. Not as high as we were all the way up there.
And if you remember last week, we related this to one very simple concept.
The 17th of April, something happened.
What happened? Oil bottomed and then found a new range of highs. Since that time, a lot of the market hasn't really come back. Even in spite of very strong earnings growth, the short-term market breath is showing that not everyone is participating. It is much harder to keep pushing highs and highs and highs when you do not have all of your participants. So, keep that in mind. And percentage of stocks above their 50-day EMA, that one staying okay at 63%. where institutions start selling and start being more bearish on the market is when you cross this 50% mark down here. That is not there yet. Okay. Only short-term you've lost a certain few sectors in the market. But mainly most of the market remains above its 50-day EMA and percent of stocks above their 200 day EMAs. Most of the market as well has their 200 day moving average too. But you cannot say that this is a everything rally market.
No. Around the 17th of April, we lost the everything rally. This was an everything rally coming off the ceasefire news. We had very nice market breath expansion on the short term across all of the major sectors. 17th of April, you lost some of that and now the market is quote unquote running on fumes. Well, not really, but you know, less full gas than it was back here.
That being said, the daily bulls remain in full control. Is a daily uptrend until proven otherwise. The bulls are in full control right now. Higher lows are down here at 7:15. So, pay attention to it. Right? If you get the pullback, which is what everybody's wanting or anticipating, right? Well, do we have enough space here? Of course, you have enough space. We're extended on the weekly, very extended from the EMAs. You got a lot of space. Anything above 630 is looking for a new weekly higher low for possible further trend continuation.
And we say trend continuation. Why?
Well, because number one, earnings are good, but number two, the bulls control the time frames. It's just really that simple, right? The month of April was very strong. The month of A is off to the month of May is off to a good start.
But nobody would be surprised if after such a nice second leg here because this is the first leg. Second leg was very nice a lot of earnings growth but on reduced breadth and that can't last forever. So keep that in mind. Right.
Moving on to the QQQ's right now. This is where all the strength is coming from. Semiconductors and technology.
Beautiful uptrend. The daily higher lows are all the way down here 655. Pay attention to the RSI on the Q's. 83 on the daily RSI. So, that being said, on the weekly, we're also very extended from our medium-term moving averages, the 12 and the 26 on the weekly time frames. You will notice you can pull this chart back as long as you want.
Usually, this is kind of like the maximum that you can get extended from the EMAs without some consolidation.
That doesn't mean they have to go back and tag them in a straight line like this. No, we can very easily just consolidate sideways and wait for those moving averages to catch up. So that might mean rotation within or amongst v various different segments of the market overall. So please keep that in mind.
The QQQs are very extended right now. It was a beautiful close to the week, but we're also starting to see some sentiment pop up right and especially surrounding semiconductors right now.
We'll talk about it right now. See, if I had to relate this in terms of a timeline of expectations, a lot of people here didn't believe this rally because of the ceasefire. And even probably up until about a week and a half ago, people didn't quite believe the rally. They were waiting for a pullback. Some people might have missed back here. In the past week, I've probably seen most people who were formerly bearish start to be bullish on things that they weren't bullish on previously, especially some of the memory names and companies like that.
It's like people just dropped their bare thesis and said, "You know what? I'm tired of missing out on this gains. Let me participate now." Right? Buying AMD up here in the $400 range. buying m you know you didn't people didn't want to buy micron here or back here but no now everybody suddenly acknowledges the big memory shortage and now that's all everybody wants to talk about we'll talk about these parabolic moves I relate them all together as we move through this index analysis and our uh subsector analysis too so XLF right now XLF financials still struggling guys still no breath expansion in financials overall still some consolidation too so keep that in mind daily is still amongst the daily downtrend right now weekly still in consolidation mode too coming into support 50 one down about $50 is your support range. Pretty decent range for the bulls to put some work into right now. Weekly downtrend, nice bounce. You got to give me the trend change. We need to find financials sometime soon if you want to see the S&P uh hold up uh some of its gains, right?
So, keep that in mind. Moving on to uh healthcare right now. Healthcare, same concept. Healthcare has been very weak.
We rejected from resistance once again.
As a matter of fact, let me just change this box red because now we've officially lost it on the weekly close.
Okay, they closed the week like this on Friday below where we wanted to see. So unfortunately, daily downtrend will probably continue until the bulls prove otherwise and the weekly might just consolidate a little bit further too into support down here 140 down to 133.
This will be a phenomenal area looking to pick up some healthcare buys if we were interested in doing it around the 200 weekly EMA. Big resistance, huge support now at the current moment. It's going to be incredibly tough for the bears to get through that and we are still hunting for your market higher low on the monthly for possible expansion into the later part of 2026 on most of your healthcare names. I know it's not a very popular sector but for those who are willing to play pay attention because the opportunities I mean although they're here might get incrementally better and you'll have a very massive area of support to possibly take some bids into. moving into the SMH right now. This is now I mean we've presented statistics on SMH every single week over the past three weeks during this expansion. Everybody knows, trust me, you're not alone. Everybody knows that this is one of the biggest rallies ever on the SMH or the SOX. Sorry, I got something in my eye. 56% in roughly a month. Okay, that's a lot. Not only the speed of the move, but the size of the move. how fast the move came and the size of the move gives most people some pause. But as I was saying into last week as well, we know, everybody knows the weekly RSI is blasted here at about 85. Everybody knows the RSI here on the daily is also very extended. As a matter of fact, some people were pointing out that back here, okay, we were into bearish divergence, right? Saying lower lows on the RSI, higher highs on the price. A lot of people were I was seeing it all over the place trying to take shorts in the semiconductors, right? And what happened? Well, they just essentially essentially got blown up right now. Yeah. However, although you will probably not find anybody more bullish on the AI trade than me, and I'm very early, very early into many of these semiconductor names, guys. We've been having a phenomenal time in the Discord so far, making a lot of gains on semiconductors. I'll be the first person to tell you I'm very bullish on the AI rally as I'm very bullish on other things. However, we need to understand sometimes the nature of parabolic moves.
Normally, they accelerate into the final leg of the move. Okay? When something's very healthy, they'll put in big gains initially and then taper off and then we find some nice consolidation. When you see a move accelerate towards the end, and it is an acceleration. You'll notice this week right here, this was 11.36 off of the ceasefire lows, very normal. Then they put in a 6% week and a 9% week and then a very small week about a week ago.
And now another 11.13% move. That's pretty big. When you look at names like Micron, yeah, this candle structure here was quite normal. Big expansion move out of the ceasefire. Big expansion. Look at the weekly moves here. 15% 8% 9% 9% and then what do we have last week? 37%.
On top of all the move that we've already done, right? I'll give you guys another one. SanDisk. SanDisk. I mean, there's been some big weeks on SanDisk, right? When it was upon First Discovery back here. Well, First Discovery was here, but then the rest of the early adopters and there's been some big weeks. 37% right here. You know, this was another 21% week uh you know, out of the uh in the war times even 25% out of the ceasefire this week right here 21%.
But look 21 87 then 1920 and then what happened this week? 31 at higher valuations accelerating for a 31% move. Okay, I'm not going to go through all of them because they all look the same. Now I will relate this back to several other trade Intel right do we have to say anything else okay so they came out of here out of the ceasefire right uh coming in at 23% and then and then 10 and then 20 after their earnings normal the week after that 20 and then this week 25 okay so you can notice the nature of parabolic moves where have we seen this before recently well I'll take you back because all parabolic moves eventually all end the same something. And it doesn't mean that the move is done forever. Not even close. It just means that be wary of the end of parabolic moves because they all end in the same fashion. Early adopters in silver made a lot of money. Okay?
People that were buying back here with a nice thesis that silver will be utilized more and that possibly it was undervalued in relation to physical versus paper prices, etc., etc., etc. And then the late adopters came in here 50 to 60. And then and then on the internet all you can hear when silver was crossing 90 through $100 in the last 2 three weeks of this move all you could hear is people saying silver is clearly going to $200 $300 in a straight line.
Clearly people that weren't interested in it at all down here or here or here.
Now all of a sudden silver experts in the last third of the move buying it at any price fearful of missing that last exponential move. Do you guys really think if somebody's in at silver at 33, do you think they care if silver has a massive pullback like there it normalizes within a trading range for the next 3 4 months? No. Because their cost is super low. They can hold. But somebody here, they're going to get shaken out by this. And how we relate this back to SanDisk on Micron is do you really think somebody who's early on SanDisk at $300 or dare I even say5 or $600 at this rate, do you really think they care if Sanisk pulls back from 15 down to a,000 and normalizes price like this? No. But you might, if you're buying up here, you may question your entry or you may question the thesis.
The market will give you a ton of reasons to sell because you will want, you will realize very quickly that maybe you were a little bit late on the tail end of the parabolic move. Who knows?
Maybe it goes all the way up to 2,000 by the time it's done. Maybe it goes all the way up to 3,000 by the time it's done. Okay, everybody knows they're undervalued in relation to Ford EPS, right? But let's talk about something on Micron. Yeah, Micron. Okay, it's undervalued. What is the Ford P? 78.
Last time I checked, something like that. Okay, it's undervalued. What should it trade at? 2530, you might say.
Okay, what's an $800 billion company? 78 times earnings. What should they trade at? 25 to 30, you say? All right. So, that would be what? A three four times on current price earnings multiple.
Great. So, it means that the price should 34x, right? Well, three times 800 billion market cap, guys, is 2.4 trillion to 3.2 trillion. Is Micron going to be a 2.53.2 trillion company?
Maybe. But you know what matters the most here? The risk-to-reward. Okay, it's much easier being early on Micron in the when the stock's only worth 250 billion or dare I even say 400 billion.
You could take that bet that it's going over a trillion easily. But you see, when you buy up here at 850 billion, if you want to make it double, you need Micron to go to 1.5 trillion. Going from 300 billion to a trillion is more manageable and easier than going from 800 billion to 1.5 trillion. Okay? So keep that in mind. It is always a function of risk-to-reward. I'm not saying that the people buying up here are not going to make money. It is very po and I'm still very bullish on Micron as well. Okay? The demand is there. The contracts are there. The operating margins are definitely there. The EPS growth is there. Everything is there.
But it's a function of risk-to-reward.
people buying up here, you're either going to have to have a very good stomach or you're willing to risk you're willing to take on the ris the additional risk because there's more risk buying up here than there was down here or down here. Let's just be honest.
It's just natural, right? So, you'll have to take on that additional risk.
You can have incremental reward, but for some people the riskreward trade-off will not be worth it anymore.
For some people, it was definitely worth it down here or down here. For some people though, they may just hit the brakes up here and say, "Let's just, you know, I missed it. I missed it. I missed it. The riskreward is just not attractive." Some people who could buy it up here, maybe you do stand to make two times your money. Maybe not in a straight line. It might be a little bit bumpy and maybe that's okay, but some people won't justify it. I'm not here to tell you guys to buy or sell. Okay? But for some people up here will be a hold on previous shares with a low cost or a trim. For other people, it'll be a last minute FOMO buy and a full port. And maybe those people even make money, too.
I'm not here to say. I'm just here to provide perspective that as stocks move into the arguably final phases of the current parabolic move and could end up into a consolidation phase, nobody's saying it's going to go down by 50%. No, but what if they just trade sideways for the next 3 4 months? That's also a clean possibility. What if they go up another 50% before doing that like silver did, right? Or like Nebus, the parabolics moves, they they all do it the same.
They get very violent towards the end of their moves, very violent, and then you end up with some consolidation. It doesn't mean it's bad consolidation. It means it's healthy, and it doesn't mean that's the endgame of the company. It can consolidate for a while and still go up thereafter. So, if you just relate it to some parabolic moves that we've seen in the past year, like that or like we saw in the medals, okay, it doesn't mean that these trades are done forever. It just means that they may have to cool off for a little while. And you might be wondering, well, what's the cooloff catalyst? Well, in my opinion, it's probably only going to come from one of two things at this current point, right?
Number one would be something like a technological advancement because when when it's pushed to shove, when the price of something, a supply component goes up so so so much. What ends up happening sometimes is number one, you can either replace it with something else. In this case, there is no replacement. But number two, you might have a good technological advancement like Broadcom or Nvidia could come out with something and say, "Listen, we develop a new technology that makes our future products, our future chips less reliant on DRAM and HBM. They may be 40, 50, 60, 70% more efficient on memory."
And what do you think that's going to do? That's not going to stall the demand for memory in the next 3 4 5 years cuz there's just not enough compute. But what it will do is that news headline will be enough to give a lot of the market some pause on the thesis. Okay?
So keep that in mind when we talk about semiconductors overall whether it's in the memory names right whether it's in names like Intel which have ran parabolically whether it's in names and I love AMD as well but this is a parabolic move at this point right it accelerates.
Now some people might say yeah well this is just people acknowledging the thesis once and for all. Yes, but eventually you run out of incremental buyers. If everybody knows about the thesis, then well then nobody's early anymore, are they? Then it's just a function of riskreward.
And if more people cannot justify the riskreward at these prices or everybody thinks that thinks that they're late okay well then who is your incremental buyer? Do you think that the institutions don't know about AMD? Do we think that the majority of retail doesn't know about AMD anymore?
Eventually, it becomes a function of everything about these niches become known. And then it just becomes a very simple function of risk-to-reward versus for growth estimates. And some people will want to take that riskreward at current prices, some people won't. And when more people don't want to take that risk-to-reward, that's when you can possibly end up with some pullbacks. But we cannot sit here and just use technical analysis and say, well, there's divergence here. It's too overbought. The move is too large. Yeah, but as you've seen, people try to call that here and here and here, and everybody's been wrong so far. So, you may as well, just as I said in silver and gold, right? You may as well just wait for the price action to show you where the top is rather than perpetually trying to short. Now, I'm not saying memory is going to have a 25% day, which clearly indicates that that was the top.
But eventually, you know, you may find a rollover in terms of a daily downtrend on the SMH, meaning you're going into weekly consolidation for a weekly higher low and either immediate continuation or maybe sideways consolidation for a minute as other aspects of the market catch up and then maybe we can go for further expansion. So, if you ask me what I've been doing on some of my semiconductor plays, longdated covered calls if they ran tremendously, trimming some of my most aggressive profits that I've had so far, and just not entering any new trades at elevated prices on things that I found that have been running too hot. Have I completely sold out of semis? Not even close. But am I covering my bets with some covered calls on certain things? Am I trimming my bets elsewhere? Yes. And then I'm just holding the rest. Why? because I have very low cost bases on a lot of my semiconductor plays. I don't personally care if we have a very big pullback because I mean I'm not an SMH. But I'll give you guys an idea. If all my costs are down here or here, do you think I really care if it goes for a pullback?
No. But people buying up here, you guys might. Just as the incremental last buyer of silver above $90, he probably does care about the fact that he bought silver late. He might still believe in the long-term thesis, right? But he may just think, "Oh, no. there's an opportunity cost to me buying very high like that. Whereas the person right here, he's made his kager, he's made his compound annual growth rate for the next three years. Silver can consolidate for a full year and this guy's made more money than the S&P still for the next two years. Wallet consolidates for a year. This guy has not. He has an opportunity cost. So, keep that in mind.
Right? I spent a lot of time talking about semi. I was supposed to do this at the end of the video, but I figured I should do it right now while we're on the topic. Right? Right. And I'll include an asterisk down below in the timestamps cuz I wanted to do this at the end of the video with a lot of these moves. Okay. Um like the SanDisk, the Micron, the Intel, Dell, President Trump tweeting, "Go out and buy a Dell." And then you can see a 13 20 25% uh candle on Dell when this company barely makes 9% revenue growth per year. It's an AI boom at this company. It's not me, okay?
We're in an AI boom. This company can very barely put out 10% revenue growth per year. It's not me. This is just the facts, right? Look at this revenue growth. It's not that good. But then it has also has a parabolic move. So I mean if you're buying Dell up here, I mean what are you looking forward to, right?
That's always the question you got to ask. People down here, they don't care if Dell consolidates.
But you, if you're buying up here, you might. And that's the same across all stocks. Take SoFi. Okay. I as a person in ch in SoFi with an $1 cost basis.
Does it bother me that SoFi is down a lot? Of course. Of course it would.
Right. But someone who's up here bought at 2830 drinking the Kool-Aid paying no attention to this who has a cost basis up here. He probably doesn't really like his position right now. Whereas I yeah it bothers me but I'm still up. I'm up a lot less than I was and I did trim up here but still same concept on Palunteer. We said this all last year, right? Be wary of the parabolic moves.
Okay. Do I care as a Palanteer shareholder with the cost basis? It's not mean to brag or anything but my cost guys is $11. Do you really think I care?
As I was trimming on the way up, especially a lot up here, do you think I care that Palunteer spends maybe a year or two consolidating? No. I'll still be up 10x on my initial buys, right? I don't care. The person who bought up here at 190 cuz they just watched too many YouTube videos when everybody was pumping it at the very final stage. He probably cares that the stock hasn't recovered his cost. It's just like Tesla. Do you guys, when I was in Tesla before the entire move started happening, I've taken a lot of profits.
My cost on a lot of my Tesla shares like under 40 bucks. Do you think I care that Tesla spent the past 5 years doing nothing? No. Because I made my compound annual growth rate for the next 10 years in one and a half years. However, people who bought here or here or here, a lot of people probably care that it spent the last 5 years doing nothing. So, keep that in mind. All of this comes full circle. These moves are all the same. It doesn't matter what it is. And I'm the first person to talk about the AI boom on the channel. We've been talking about it for like a year straight, right? I know the implications of the memory shortage. I know, right? I know the prices of DRM and HBM over the past 2 weeks have been moving a lot higher than previously. I know all this. I cover all their earnings for you on the channel, right? So, of course, I know about all this stuff. The fundamentals are definitely there. It's just the speed.
Have we done too much too quickly? And is it a good buy up here is the question you should be asking yourself. Is the risktoreward still worth it? And I'm all for riding momentum, trust me. But there are times to enter momentum to still have good riskreward. And there are times you got to look at things and you're kind of just like, well, maybe it's not the best up here, right? Maybe I'll wait for a pullback. And if it just keeps running, running, it is what it is. But if you just avoid potentially getting trapped, you know, for every one of these parabolic moves that you may still be able to etch out some additional ROI, there's going to be a whole host of other ones where you're in the last 10% of this move, man. and you'll just be stuck holding the bag.
So, I hope you really enjoy the bag is all I'm saying. Right, moving on to IW Russell right now. The Russell actually performing well. Got a nice expansion move right here. A lot of space off the lows. I think above 270 looking for a higher low or possible for their trend continuation. If they don't, if they come lower, you guys know the drill.
Looking for a weekly higher low into the 12 MA just like the SPY, just like the QQQ. Nice resistance, current support.
That would look so awkward, would it?
So, if that does happen, pay attention.
growth stocks probably going to be some very fantastic dip buys soon. In two of the minor sectors of the market, some sectors are still not cooperating here.
Staples not doing anything. Why? Higher inflation, no interest rate cuts. Some things that staples do not like at all.
Is it good to maybe accumulate down here a little bit? Yes. But that trade has been put on pause because of the macro.
Consumer retail, same concept. This trade was supposed to have a very nice year this year. Why? because we're projecting two three two three interest rate cuts and we were finally supposed to be over this entire inflation narrative that has been here since COVID seems like that got rekindled last year with the tariffs that was supposed to die off this year but got rekindled with the war. So unfortunately consumer retail is just not the place I want to be. Not much momentum right here. It doesn't mean that you can't find some good value bets down here on some of your favorite consumer retail names. It just means that setting the expectation you should not maybe be looking for these stocks to move extremely rapidly and have extremely strong earnings guidance into this macro backdrop right now. Utilities utilities down.9%. Now this has been a function of a couple things. There are some utilities companies out there like we focus on like on the Vistas of the world or the next era energies of the world or Duke or possibly constellation that you've seen have been pulling back. That's not because there's not a massive energy bottleneck coming towards us in the next 2 three years. There definitely is and these companies are definitely preparing for it. Building more grid infrastructure and locking in some independent power contracts with the hyperscalers. All that is very true. But what utilities do not like are stubbornly high risk-free yields. They compete with them directly. And as the 10-year right now is still at 4.36 and the 20-year is still around 5%. That is just not a very good look for utilities.
So it's a push and pull. On one hand, you have a big bottleneck coming and everybody knows it. On the other hand, you have stubbornly high interest rates and utilities in just in terms of normally how you think about utilities guys. They always compete with interest rates. A lot of these utilities companies have a lot of debt because it costs a lot to maintain that grid and to expand the grid. They pay a very nice dividend and they don't grow their top line that much. The best thing that people enjoy utilities for is the 5 6% dividend yields. However, when the risk-free 10 is at 4.5 roughly and the risk-free 20 is at five. Well, it's like why would I buy a utilities company with stock specific risk and execution risk when I can just buy a risk-free yield?
That's what a lot of people think about that trade-off, which is why there's a push and pull in utilities right now. Am I buying utilities for the inevitable future bottleneck of the next 2 3 4 years? Of course I am. But I also realize right now that that trade is not the most favorable in terms of short-term momentum because it's competing with the yield curve right now. So keep that in mind. Real estate is kind of the same thing right now. So real estate, I mean, you look at this chart and it's doing well, but let's be honest, it's not going to get that much expansion while your yields are high. So once again, set the expectation.
Anything that you buy that's associated with real estate right now may not get the most amount of lift because you're competing with very high interest rates.
Very natural. and XLE. Well, this one just es and flows with the price of the barrel of oil. So, not much comment right there. Although, we can see some future outflows from the United States in terms of more export capacity, which will be good structurally structurally for these companies. In the short term, these ones will move a whole lot more closely with the barrel of oil than they were with than they will with their own cash flows, which is why you saw last week when all the big oil companies reported their earnings. Look at this EPS.
So massive. Chevron, Exxon Mobile, look at these EPS, monster monster EPS beats.
Konico Phillips, monster EPS beats across the board and you will expect that to continue. However, they've come down since then. Why? Well, because they're being closely tied into the price action of the barrel of oil. So, if we're buying these for margin expansion, free cash flows, you will get them. But just realize that for the time being, they're being closely tied into the um the variance in the price of the barrel of oil. So, that's all I have to say about that. Gold and silver. So gold and silver do not look too bad. They are coming into resistance right now.
Resistance on gold 49 at about 4750.
Nice expansion off the lows. Nice recapture daily uptrend. You're going to be looking for a higher low to pull back. Anything above 45. Just be looking for a higher low. What the bulls are trying to do right here is they're trying to reverse after the parabolic move on gold. This last little stretch right here. See gold here were big moves. This is wild. Wild. So what happened? Well, we consolidated for the last uh four or five months and it's been a very healthy consolidation period. So, we're looking for when does it come back? When do we go back into bull mode? Well, that's what we're looking for right now, which is why weekly downtrend, nice bounce, higher lows. They're trying for it. They're trying to get the weekly back. We never lost the monthly. Clearly, it backs to the 12, right? This is still clearly an attempt to continue a monthly uptrend right now. What we did lose though was the weekly time frame. Now, we got to get it back. So, we'll see if the bulls can get it back over the course of this week. Looking pretty good. If we're entering gold longs here, stop goes below the low because we are trying to go for the bigger trend expansion into the monthly reexpansion of this chart.
And the same thing can be said about this silver chart right here. So silver, if you look at it, it's just a carbon copy of gold just at a higher beta. So higher volatility overall. Same concept, daily uptrend at a support right there, rejection from resistance. 83 down about 80. And on the weekly, they're trying to do the exact same thing. Weekly downtrend, lower high, higher low. And they're trying to go for it right now.
Now, so if we're entering silver long, stop goes clearly below there. You're going for the weekly re-expansion and the monthly reexpansion of the metals trade. We'll see if they can actually get it done this time or if they just get relegated into further tightening up of the price action, but so far it does not look the worst in terms of an overall trade. Now, let's look into big tech. So, moving into Apple right here, Apple very nice day on the Friday session, 2.05% after they said that they would possibly consider consider the Intel chips for their upcoming suite of products. Very nice move. That being said, little bit extended here on the daily. You would not be surprised with overall market consolidation if Apple pulls back. So that being said, pullback area very clearly defined right now. Should be very obvious, right? Very nice weekly MACD expansion. If you do pull back, you're coming right back down to support. This would be for some very nice trade opportunities, guys. The breakout, the retest, we very clean right there. Support area stands at 277 about 268. And the monthly is looking quite good for the expansion, but if you do pull back a little bit, just be uh cognizant of the fact that there may be some entries for some swing trades. No longs in terms of long-term shares for me. Valuation is just a little bit too extended. So, I'm just holding all my Apple shares onto AMD. AMD 11.44%. And you guys know there is arguably not many more AMD bigger bulls than me. I spent a large part of the last what 6 months saying that 200s was pretty good opportunity for AMD for the long-term thesis. But the thing is the same, right? They had their own parabolic move last year after the opening eye deal, right? They went very, very, very hot right there into 256. Everybody wanted to get in and then it just consolidated for a long time. So, I'm still a very big fan of the AMD thesis. I think they'll crush it over the next few years. Everybody knows that their EPS, their their profitability across GPUs, CPUs, etc. The demand is there. The EPS function is going to go exponential. The revenue function is going to go exponential, too. All in good time. Is AMD a good buy up here? Well, once again, that depends on your stomach or volatility and it also depends on your forward thesis in terms of how much you think the company's going to be worth into 2028, 2029. Some people can justify buys up here and they'll say, "Well, I'll absorb any volatility and maybe I'll just buy more." I know I'm late and I'm fine with that. I still think there's some good functional risk-reward up here, which there is. However, for people like me that already are full on AMD, up here is just a up here is just basically hold right now, right? So, I have leaps. I'll give you guys I'll tell you guys what I'm doing on LEAPS. I have a number of leaps. I closed a portion of my LEAPS so far. Very happy with the gains. Couple more have very longdated poor man's covered calls and a couple of them I'll probably just be exercising for some shares cuz my strike prices on those leaps like 160. I can just exercise some shares, delay the taxable event, and I'll just take the shares and I'll be fine with holding these over the course of the next 2 three years. But so far so good on AMD. Am I buying up here?
Personally, no. doesn't mean that you shouldn't buy. It should mean that you should really do your research and derive whether or not the risk-reward is up here is good enough for you. Up at about 450, you just add 10% to this.
It's trading now around a 1.8 1.85 peg.
Definitely not the same one peg or under one peg as it was trading down below there. So, just keep that in mind, right? Have we gone a little bit too far too fast? Maybe. I guess the markets are going to tell us that the next few weeks, aren't they? Moving on to a Amazon right now. So, Amazon up.56%. Not the worst day for them, but the bulls are getting a little bit tired up here.
The LRSI is a little bit overbought. You can see it was easy for them to push up into their first two legs. And now this one's been getting a little bit challenging. In the event that you roll over after six very beautiful weeks for Amazon, well, the pullback area could be clearly defined as a back test of the 12 MA that'll be curling up. And maybe some of these price action zones around the 250 range. That could be quite interesting for a breakout, retest, maybe run trade. So, I'll pay attention to it. See if I can add any Amazon back there. But up here, not adding anything.
Not buying any new LEAP contracts, not adding any shares. Up here at about 275 for price earnings is a 32 and the peg is about a 1.61. Not terrible, but best believe on the pullback. It could get a little bit better if they do offer us that re-entry. Moving on to uh Google right now. Google also a little bit stretched up here just shy of 400.
Looking very strong. Higher lows are all the way down there at 334. So, a ton of room created by the bulls. Bulls are still in control. They could very easily just set a higher low and just keep going at that point in time. But I think you guys agree at a 83 on the RSI on the daily and on the weekly time frame they're coming up in overbought territory right now it's very extended extended from the 12 EMA overall too. So is Google a fantastic buy up here? Maybe not for some people maybe for some other people right for me personally no at about 400 just add 10% of this it's trading at 35 four times earnings a 2.3 peg. So that's like that's my cuto off zone for Google. You guys know me. The only time I would have been interested in nibbling a little bit would have been down here 275 to 250. Then I could justify the risk-to-reward. But as the current moment, I'm just holding my Google shares right now. Very happy with this expansion, but I'm not uh going to chase the price all the way up here. But if we get a pullback, well, the logical area on a longerterm time frame would be waiting for the 12 EMA to kind of curl up into the price. And that might be around the whole 350 range. We'll see.
Even this would look very healthy, right? The market moves in waves all the time, guys. Some people might be surprised to know that stocks don't move up in a straight line. Moving on to Meta right now. Meta down about 1.16 on Friday. This is one that just has not found any expansion whatsoever. Bouncing out of support 605 down to 560. This one is still relatively uh inexpensive in my opinion. So down here at about 6 under 630, you're trading under a 24 price to earnings. Very close to a one peg ratio for very strong cash flows for Meta, right? So I know the price action has been very awkward, right? We got resistance above 651 to 630 and it just appears Meta has just been left for dead down here and there's just no momentum, let's be honest. So, what I'm doing is I'm selling put options down here and just accumulating a few more long-term shares because I do really believe there's good value, but definitely no momentum in the price action. Definitely nothing that uh gives me any indication that I want to go long with short-term trades, right? Maybe if you break through support and back test like this give me some momentum. All right, let's for the time being just accumulating some longerdated things like uh call debit spread leaps and selling put options under here and just accumulating some long-term shares. And the same can be said on a company like Microsoft right in the past 2 3 weeks not doing too much since their earnings. Microsoft just slowly fading but they got support below 400 down about 380 above resistance 430 up to 450. Both of which are very big levels. Support very big level. Resistance up there very big level too. So Microsoft what they're doing right now is they're trying to reset the time frames one by one. Okay, so the weekly big weekly downtrend, nice engulfing move. They're trying to set the higher lows into the support area and go for the weekly trend reexpansion.
We'll see if Microsoft has it in them.
One thing's for sure though, I like it for selling put options down here. I also like it for accumulating more shares. And at the valuation right now around 420, it's about a 25 times Ford earnings at a 1.44 peg. On to Netflix right now. Netflix down about 86%. Not the best weeks for Netflix overall, but we know that a lot of the consumer tech has been down and out. Spotify, right, since their earnings down and out.
Shopify since their earnings down and out. So many others, guys. And Netflix is part of that whole cohort, too.
Consumerfacing tech. Okay, nobody's probably worried that Netflix is going to lose half their subscribers, but the market just isn't there right now for this style of company. So, we need to know which ones are in favor, which is infrastructure, hardware, etc. anything software or consumer tech very much out of favor for the time being. So, keep that in mind. Coming in at support right now, 86 down to 83. Very nice valuation though on Netflix down here. Although, they have no uh short-term price action for any swing trade longs. For that, I need to be above the daily EMAs and at least have the daily uptrends because as of right now, categorical daily downtrend. Weekly, we've unraveled the weekly uptrend right there. It's just consolidation. So, no swing trades for me on Netflix right now. However, uh and in terms of a long-term ad, yeah, I'll be adding some Netflix shares down here in the mid80s as right now. Just take 10% off of this. It's trading around a 24 23 forward price to earnings at about a 1.15 peg, which is very manageable, very manageable risk-reward down here for this company uh for longerterm share buys if you're a very patient person.
Moving on to Nvidia right now. Nvidia having a very nice week last week, capping it off with a 1.75 day on Friday. Very nice. The bulls taking charge again, right? We were noticing that this move was a little bit awkward on Nvidia and we were saying, "Yeah, this didn't make sense. It was probably a buy as we were kind of back testing this whole area, right? So, weekly downtrend, nice expansion. You got the expansion and then the back test and then the run. So, that run was very beautiful so far, trading in around the all-time highs and they have earnings in in the next coming weeks. If they come back here again, you guys know the drill. I'll be selling puts and maybe even interested in accumulating a bit more shares down there. Up here at 215, I'm not buying any more though. There was some times to buy and I did kind of talk about Nvidia almost every day for the past 6 7 8 9 months saying it's too cheap it's too cheap it's too cheap now they haven't gotten that much lift off the lows but it's a start a very nice start right around 195 I mean just add 10% to this valuation you'd be trading back around 27 1.1 peg so it's not even that expensive up here my end ofear targets on video should be sitting closer between 250 to 300 if they just continue on doing what they do best which is execute as of right now they're catching up moving on to Tesla Right now, Tesla, very nice day on Friday. 4% to the upside. Finally. Finally, Tesla showing some very nice price action.
Daily uptrend for the first time since how long? Well, I'm glad you asked.
Since December, as a matter of fact, recapturing the EMAs, all of them, putting some nice distance, recapturing this 405 down to 382, which I will gladly turn green for you guys as a support area. So, now now we got something to base our trades off of. If we find some consolidation on the indexes in the next few days or weeks and they give us a back test that could be a nice entry style trade. They have the weekly uptrend back as well. So a bit of a back test that might provide some re-entry trades here for some longs. MACD is currently crossing. Now Tesla has flipped the script in terms of momentum. The momentum is now with the bulls. So we'll see. Is it too little too late? This is why it's always challenging a little bit, right? I mean it's tough to go Tesla long here if you know the S&P and the Q's are a little bit extended. So this is why it's like is it too little too this is why I wouldn't be top blasting it's not even top but you know what I mean metaphorically top blasting the move in this move on Tesla right now if we do though find consolidation on the indexes and Tesla gets brought down again now that they've changed the price action structure well maybe this one will be one that I could commit to for a bit of a swing trade long we'll see what happens so far so good though on the price action right there Palanteer Palunteer down here 0.55% nothing big to report on this company they had great earnings We covered it last week overall, but you can clearly tell the momentum is still to the downside.
Weekly also not getting the uptrend underway right now. For that, you need a clean break above 150. Get the support area back, reclaim your daily EMAs, reclaim this resistance level, just get everything back. And then we can talk about swing trade longs. As of right now on Palunteer, the bears are in short-term control of this one. And at 140, as we determined after their earnings, they're still trading about a two peg and a quite high price to sales, which just reiterates, right? If you are fine, if you're buying Palanteer with the expectation of it going back to 250 in the next three months, maybe it happens, but the expectation should be that it may not happen. Okay? So, keep that in mind. You should be okay if you're buying balance here, you should be okay with the concept of the company's executing flawlessly, but because of the valuation, it can consolidate sideways and test your patience as it grows into that valuation, right? So, keep that in mind.
I'm not saying it can't go back up here.
It can. But first things first, give me the EMAs back. Give me support and show me that that's what they want to do. I'm not just going to guess down here that, oh yeah, yeah, for sure they're going to do that. No, if they start to make a move, then we can maybe participate. But until that time, it's just kind of oscillating, a bit trapped in a bit of a range of price action. Now, SoFi, SoFi, I mean, everybody wanted up here. Nobody wants SoFi down here, even though the company continues to execute, but it's just not there for the market, guys.
There's really nothing else to say, right? We covered their earnings last week and we just basically said in this market environment, you know, people just aren't excited about uh SoFi or Robin Hood or Palanteer, all the popular names from last year, right? They're just not there anymore. It's all about semiconductors right now, the AI buildout, the infrastructure trade, and just even though SoFi is putting up very solid numbers, they were unable to raise their end of year guidance on EPS because there's no rate cuts this year.
They executed very nicely across across financial services, lending, uh technology platform was a bit um soft, you know, very soft in my opinion, but the business continues to execute. So, if you're holding SoFi right now, should you be expecting us to go back to 30 within the end of the month of May because it's a semiconductor? No. If the war ends and you start getting talks of rate cuts maybe back on the table, is that what's going to help SoFi move up and the rest of financials? Yes. So, you know your catalyst. no rate cuts, SoFi might move a little bit slow and it might be in the out of favor basket of the market for the time being. Doesn't mean it's a bad company. Just means to set your expectations. If you're buying SoFi here with the expectation that it's going to go back to 30, you know, as fast as Intel can rally from here to there, well, you're probably going to be disappointed, right? That being said, am I selling some puts down here? Sure, I'll still do that. And am I accumulating maybe a little bit of SoFi shares at the bottoms there? Yeah, but nothing fast, right? I'm not like, "Oh my god, SoFi is the only fintech platform left behind by the market. I have to get in as many shares now as humanly possible because if not, I might miss it. All the other ones have ran.
Only SoFi has not ran." Well, that's not the case, right? Where's Robin Hood?
Robin Hood's doing nothing. I mean, PayPal, if anybody still looks at PayPal, PayPal's doing nothing. The Local, like all the fintech companies, guys, and even not even the fintech companies, look at the bigger financials, the the processing volumes, right? Visa is doing nothing.
Mastercard's doing nothing, right? So, keep that in mind. Always important to frame the trade and the expectations into Uber last or Uber before last cuz it's already an hour 40 minutes deep, guys. I spending so much money even so much time on these individual and money so much time on these individual companies um that we won't be able to do the uh the list at the end of the video there. There's no way. I'll do it on Monday for you guys. Um that being said, Uber will wrap it up really quickly here. Uber also consumer tech, right?
So, um I mean their earnings were good.
We covered them on the channel on Wednesday, I believe. So, the earnings were very good. Am I a buyer of Uber down here for long-term shares? Yes. But for short-term momentum, it's probably not your best bet. The bulls are trying to get something back here. We'll see if they can do it. They're they try to make an attempt here, but look how the weekly candle closed. They lost everything.
They were not able to close above here.
I need a weekly candle close above $78 or I cannot say the bulls have returned uh into a nice weekly uptrending momentum phase of expansion, right? So keep that in mind. Am I buying Uber shares down here? Yes, because I do believe there's very good value down there. And I will be selling some short puts down here on Uber as well. So lastly, but not least, TSM. TSM not up with the rest of the group on Friday.
And they are somewhat extended right now. Very nice daily uptrend. Your higher lows currently planted still at about 385. So keep that in mind. If TSM unwinds with the rest of semis, what are we going for here? Weekly higher low.
Okay, that's it. that you should be looking around the 375 360 area maybe for a back test of the 12 EMA because TSM definitely loves riding this 12 EMA in the context of a bull expansion period. TSM not part of the parabolic move group overall and the valuation if they do pull back there uh in the 360 range is a bit more manageable down there on a pullback would be roughly these metrics right here 24 times forward earnings and about a one peg and about a 10 for price of sales which is not egregious right is it the best deal in the market no is it a justifiable a justifiable buy here if you um are willing to embrace the Taiwan China risks as I have embraced after being a TSM shareholder for the last 5 6 years.
I understand that risk and I continue to hold. Am I adding any up here? No. Cuz I'm full. Would I, you know, if I didn't have a TSM position up here and I was looking to hold over the next 5 10 years because I like their moat and competitive advantages, would it still make sense even at a true trillion dollar market cap? Yeah. But let's just say it wouldn't be one of my heaviest buys. Okay, so keep that in mind. That is everything. That's one of the longest videos I ever put on the channel, guys.
An hour and 42 minutes. I spent a lot of time talking about the parabolic moves when we talked about SMH. So unfortunately I will not be have I will not have the time today to talk about each of these companies individually.
But you should probably know where we stand if you've been watching my videos for the past 2 3 weeks. You should probably know where I stand on the themes in the current market on the energy theme on the semiconductor theme.
various themes within semiconductors, right? Whether it's the chips, the CPUs, whether it's the photonix aspects of that trade, whether it's the neoclouds like Iran and Cory, which we covered their earnings to start off the video.
Whether it's the military and defense spending trade, which has been out of favor, but still a tremendous buy for the next 2 three years. Whether it's the space trade, which found some resurgence on the Friday action after Rocket Labs earnings, which I supposed to cover today. I promise you guys, I was ready, but unfortunately, we just don't have the time. Um, you know, Rocket Lab super solid. very glad that I was able to build some investments around there around the $70 range. Um, so that being said, space trade very popular, but it is a trade that, you know, the timeline of expectations should be 2028, 2029, 2030. Is it rallying really hard off the Rocket Lab earnings? And because the SpaceX IPO is in June, yes. Can you make some short-term money? Yes, of course, possibly. It was better when we were down here first talking about it, obviously, right? But, you know, we'll cover these themes more in detail come the Monday morning video. That's it for me, guys. Hopefully you're enjoying a nice Saturday. It's currently midnight by the time I hit the end button here on the on the stream. So, uh hopefully you guys are having a good weekend.
Hopefully you have time to watch a video tomorrow. If you enjoyed today's video, drop a like, subscribe if you want to the channel. We'd love to have you back.
And if you have any questions, comments, concerns, or anything that you want to say, leave it down below in the comment section. Always glad to read your guys' comments. That's it for me. Have a good rest of your evening and a great Sunday.
I'll see you guys tomorrow on Sunday for the biggest gainers and loser or sorry for the top five options plays for the upcoming week. So that's it for me folks. Take care. Have a good one.
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