Ep 40: $NVDA Reports Earnings! Plus $MU, $RKLB and $RIVN Updates

Added: 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]I believe the markets have closed officially.

[00:00:03]>> I think so. They typically close at four, right?

[00:00:07]>> That's That's a true statement. Every day that the markets are open.

[00:00:13]>> Yes.

[00:00:13]>> Unless if you're on Robin Hood and it's just always on.

[00:00:17]>> Yeah, that's true. I mean, the after it just goes straight into the aftermarket.

[00:00:20]>> I I kind of like the the the closure aspects of uh the markets closing and reopening and not trading in the after after hours.

[00:00:30]Yeah, provide some sanity, but it seems like that's going away within the next couple of years.

[00:00:36]Um, okay. So, let's let's just do an overview of what we're talking about today. Uh, you sold a stock that you've been selling like I think every week for the past few weeks. So, we'll get to that.

[00:00:50]>> A couple days I haven't sold. Yeah. Um, I bought a stock, which we kind of touched on last episode, but we'll touch on it on it again this episode. Uh, Rivian released their R2 configurator, so we'll do a walkthrough of that. Of course, we got to talk about Micron. We got to talk about the Nvidia earnings.

[00:01:12]Um, >> everything is revolving around Nvidia earnings today. So, that that'll be interesting. And I wonder when uh yeah, we we'll have to keep an eye on when it comes out.

[00:01:23]>> Yeah, we we'll have to keep an eye on it. Um and there there's a new I want to call kind of say it's a product announcement, but it's not really a new product announcement from you. Um a little side project. So, we're going to we're going to touch on that as well towards the end of the episode. And as always, we're going to have listener questions. And I want to call out that this is episode 40, which just feels like a very big number. Um, yeah. So, that's all I have to say about that.

[00:01:52]>> Okay.

[00:01:52]>> All right. Where where should we start?

[00:01:54]>> Let let's start with uh the most exciting update, which is you made a sale.

[00:02:01]>> What did you sell and why?

[00:02:05]>> I I I've been trimming my Rocket Lab position. I love this company. I've said that before. There's probably not much more to say about it other than, you know, at 110 times revenues. It's uh it's now priced for uh a lot of uh the future. So, you know, I've been trimming my position. It's still my second largest holding. So, you you know, it's not like I'm exiting this position, but I have been trimming. I expect to continue to trim at these prices or as it uh makes new highs um because the the risk factor is higher for it since uh since it's now trading at such a high high price point. So uh yeah uh have you any more rockabob or are you holding?

[00:02:45]>> Yeah, I just did that one trim. My my plan, which is always a loose plan, is I'm going to I'm gonna Well, one, I'll see how the stock moves. Obviously, if there's a larger jump, that'll probably encourage me to sell more. Um, but I'm just interested to see how Rocket Lab moves as we get closer to the SpaceX IPO. Um, >> yeah, like >> I mean, it's a double-edged sword. It's hard to predict these things. Um it it's a double-edged sword because uh clearly SpaceX is going to IPO. It's going to be the largest IPO in history. Um and when it IPOs, SpaceX might go up from there.

[00:03:26]U but it's also IPOing at roughly $2 trillion uh market cap. And you know when we get to see the sort of financial details of the company there might be a lot of disappointment as well uh or a lot lot of scrutiny like should a company that has I don't know somewhere between 20 and $30 billion of revenue be worth you know $2 trillion and that that has been sort of like an unprecedented thing right uh and um all of those things could potentially also drag down SpaceX post IPO we don't know Um, so that in itself, let's put that aside for a moment. People who are interested in Rocket Lab today might be like, well, you know what, I'd rather own the number one. So it could, you know, like it could go that direction as well. Um, so there there's like multiple risks uh in that in that sense, but also people could be like excited about space as a whole. And Rocket Lab is the second best company after SpaceX. And if you want to sort of own the basket, Rocket Lab is sort of one that is a much smaller company that you could buy into that uh that has tremendous potential uh and upside in the future. So uh all of those outcomes are a possibility. But you know what uh in my case since I've been buying it since the company was about a $2.5 billion valuation, now it's at a $80 billion valuation, it makes sense to derisk somewhat and um you know hold on to some and see what happens. and and go for the ride. But >> another angle for the uh the risk factors is a flight risk, pun intended, of there's a cohort of Rocket Lab shareholders that own Rocket Lab because they wanted to own SpaceX. And now that SpaceX IPOs, there's a chance that you actually have a decent amount of Rocklab sellers because they want to buy into that um SpaceX IPO. On the flip side, what could happen, and this is obviously all speculation, is if SpaceX IPOs and its valuation is astronomical where it has a crazy PS ratio, crazier than Rocket Lab, all of a sudden Rocket Lab looks cheap relative to SpaceX. and that could cause the more people to buy into Rocket Lab and then and then the price go up there. So, it's really hard to know what's going to happen. For me, I'm interested in the pre-IPO movement for Rocket Lab. The the post IPO, to your point, who who knows what's going to possibly happen there. Um, >> yeah.

[00:06:02]>> So, I I would expect to take more profit before SpaceX IPOs, but um yeah, we'll see. And and also one thing to keep in mind is because uh the revenue numbers for Rocket Lab are are a lot smaller.

[00:06:16]They're they're just approaching a billion dollars of revenue uh on an annualized basis. They haven't even crossed the billion dollar mark yet. Uh but it's a lot easier to 10x a billion dollars than it is to 10x2 20 billion, right? So uh SpaceX uh to 10x its revenues has to go from 20 something billion to over 200 billion. not impossible but doable. Um but but much more difficult to do than going from 1 billion annualized to 10 billion annualized. So uh Rocket Labs uh growth uh percentage could potentially be a lot faster for a lot longer uh and be able to sustain that. So you know if there if SpaceX and Rocket Lab at a equal weighing of like price sales ratio, I would way prefer to own uh Rocket Lab than SpaceX. And historically, I've had the chance to own SpaceX. I um in the private markets, and I've chosen against it. Um because Rocket Lab was, in my view, a much better deal. So, uh it's it's been a it's been a great ride to see.

[00:07:21]Um part of me thinks Rocket Lab is moving so much because it's just trying to regain that number one position in your portfolio since Micron has has stolen the seat.

[00:07:33]>> That's right. That's right. And just to be fair, if I had not trimmed it, I think it would have the number one position because uh it's it's gone up a lot in the past. Uh >> well, you should keep trimming it then because then it's just going to keep going up based on that theory.

[00:07:46]>> Um so speaking of Micron, what you haven't taken any profit and the stock has gone up tremendously since you bought it. It's also gone down since its highs of around $800 a share. I think right now it's $730 a share. Um, right.

[00:08:04]>> What What are your thoughts about um taking profit when what price target do you have, if any?

[00:08:12]>> Well, today I I posted on X that I I finally decided I'm not going to take it. I'm not going to sell a single share of Micron under $1,000 until we know more. And most likely, uh, we won't know more until the quarterly report. Um so uh you know there has basically been not much news since the last uh quarterly report where they sort of upped everything. Um Micron CEO was on a conference in a conference uh just yesterday or maybe the day before uh where he reiterated that their numbers are looking fantastic for this quarter and their financials are even better than the expectations that they set out.

[00:08:53]So that is one piece of information that has come out since then and um and you know everyone sort of like fully expects this quarter to be phenomenal and uh you know like there's in in my view uh it would be shortsighted for me to sell any shares prior to the quarter report unless it goes over $1,000. I'm I'm sort of like reserving that $1,000 price mark as, you know, I might trim a little bit at $1,000 a share, but um if it doesn't reach a,000, then I'm just going to wait for the quarterly report and see what happens uh and and roll the dice there.

[00:09:29]But um my expectation is that the quarterly report is going to be fantastic and they're going to reiterate uh what a great quarter they've had. Uh also, Nvidia's report today might give us a lot of insight on memory demand and uh Jensen usually comments about memory.

[00:09:45]He just recently within the past week has along with Michael Dell commented about how uh memory continues to be a constraint and that Micron has done a great job based on a conversation that they had years ago in preparing for the growth of memory demand and he sees the memory demand continuing for the next 10 years. This is Jensen speaking by the way. Then the the one person who knows the most about the demand on AI and AI chips um obviously and video chips but also for memory chips he speculates that uh the demand will likely continue for the next 10 years. So if this super cycle as uh we've been calling it uh continues to be going for the for another 10 years that that would just be an unbelievable amount of growth potential for uh for Micron. So, you know, um I like I I don't want to be selling a little too early, but u I suspect that'll happen anyway as I start to trim at some point just like I have been trimming Rocket Lab for the past year and it's always been too early since it's making new highs every day.

[00:10:53]But at least uh you know trimming for de-risking purposes is better than trimming thinking that something is overvalued, >> right? Um, I will say obviously Jensen is very much in the thick of it, but I I don't hold his comments with a lot of weight just because he's going to be fairly biased. I don't think he he would say, you know, memory demand is going to be weak because then that would mean AI demand and >> demand for, >> you know, Nvidia GPUs would be weak.

[00:11:24]>> Not necessarily. He could have said for example that um we expect uh to make a lot of progress on um on utilizing memory better and therefore hopefully the the part the other parts that we need for selling more Nvidia GPUs are going to be uh more accessible as uh as you know micron bearings on new plants or whatever. But like he did not say that. He's like he's like no the demand is going to continue to be ridiculous and um we're basically going to be trying to jump from one thing to another in ter terms of solving the demand problem uh as we go into a world where we have billions of agents AI agents working on our behalf. Um, sticking on the uh micron topic for a moment, by the way. Um, you know, I got to give this guy, the cityroup uh analyst, a little bit of uh additional uh trouble because or or hard time because um if you remember was who was it? Anique Malik or something like >> I'm pulling him up.

[00:12:25]>> Are you okay, there we go. Uh atif Malik. Yeah, thank you. He um had lowered his target uh price target on Micron after their stellar quarter. This is you know within days after the last quarter where they crushed all the estimates and then raised guidance beyond anything that anyone expected. He lowered his price target from $510 to $425. And he did that literally less than 50 days ago on March 31st or something like that. And then yesterday he raised he almost doubled his price target from $425 to $840. Now what has happened in the past 50 days? Nothing.

[00:13:08]Micron hasn't reported a new earnings.

[00:13:10]Uh you know there has been like basically no additional news or information that has been provided. Uh and he just went from lowering his price target by 20%. To doubling it, increasing it by 100%. And what happened is price was going down before when he lowered it. Price has gone up since since he lowered it. Now he's raising it. So how ironic. Uh so you know in my in my standard sort of uh u criticism of analysts is that like they're they they're amazing at looking at the rearview mirror. They're hardly ever very good at at predicting the future.

[00:13:50]So uh >> yeah, that was fascinating.

[00:13:54]Um, yeah, it's funny. Okay, let's go to a purchase I made this week.

[00:14:02]Um, I think it was yesterday.

[00:14:04]>> Uh, I bought 70% more Rivian shares at $1269 a share.

[00:14:12]>> Great timing. And and Rivian went up 5% today, right?

[00:14:16]>> It was also the low of yesterday. It was crazy timing.

[00:14:20]>> How did you time that? That That's really really good. uh mostly luck.

[00:14:27]Um so we talked about this and here's the um Rivian chart for the last 6 months. We talked about this uh last episode because we had a listener question ask if I was going to buy Rivian at these levels and I said I have a price target um and I don't know if I'm being stubborn or not with just waiting for it. I don't remember if I said the price target but it was $12.90 was what I was looking for. And um back in February it went down to like $1360 and I was kicking myself because after it did that it shot up to $17.70.

[00:15:05]I was like uh should have bought like and this is an example of like when >> you know waiting for a specific price target just does not work well. With that said, I already had a big Rivian position and I was not like >> uh I I didn't need to buy more Rivian, you know, like if if I was starting a position, I wouldn't be as strict.

[00:15:27]>> Um but I, you know, I whatever I decided to be stubborn and it happened to pay off. Now, you know, again, I was kicking myself in February, but in May, um it actually went down lower than$12.90. I got I I don't set up um automatic uh buys and sells. I set up just price alerts. So then I could just assess before I do anything. So by the time I saw the alert, the stock happened to be down to like 1270. Um which is when I bought it. So that that was total luck.

[00:16:00]But this is an example and I know you don't like to hear it where some basic technical analysis can help identify where there might be some opportunities.

[00:16:12]Um so that that's but but it is luck.

[00:16:16]It's not it's not you know facts.

[00:16:19]>> Right. Right. Um I I was actually tempted to add to my Rivian position as well yesterday. Today I just looked up the price. It did end the um day up 6 and a half%. So that was great timing on your part. But um yeah, Rivian continues to be a phenomenal story where the stock price in my view does not match the story of the company. The the company, by the way, they just released their uh R2 configurator, which is pretty sweet. I don't know if Have you played around with this thing yet?

[00:16:51]>> I played around with it a little bit, you know, just daydreaming uh which version I could potentially get. Um okay what's what are what would be your um R2 configuration?

[00:17:05]>> So so just you know like looking at the uh R2 configurator here the the performance model which is the 57990 which they're releasing this um this spring. So essentially this month or next month they're going to start deliveries on this thing. Um is the is the one that I would definitely go with.

[00:17:24]Uh it includes the launch package which includes autonomy plus the a key fob which these days because your phone is your key is like not as important but is nice to have. Uh the tow package and then um uh the all-wheel drive is obviously included and it includes this sort of like uh escer silver paint if you want a different paint color that's going to cost more. So I I mean I don't mind this paint color but I would probably go with the half moon gray. I think this is sort of like a nicer paint color.

[00:17:56]>> That's nice. I would I would do the blue or the green. I think the blue is called the Yeah. Catalina Cove, >> but I I like to call it Savvy Blue, personally.

[00:18:08]>> That's I like that. Um but yeah, they they've done a great job with this uh configurator, too. And I love the wheels, the standard wheels that it comes with. I would not change the wheels. Um, it also lowers the uh range from 330 miles to 307 if you >> I didn't notice that because I was looking at the uh premium package and that has different wheel options. Um >> Oh, okay. Yeah.

[00:18:38]>> Standard wheels.

[00:18:40]>> Yeah. And then I would prefer the light interior, but it's not available at launch. It says coming late 2026, so I'd probably just go with the black interior. um just so that uh you know I'd get it sooner. But the light interior looks super sharp again. So >> it's really nice. It also it makes such a big difference on a hot day. And I mean you're from Arizona, you know, um like it's the car just dramatically is um you know not as hot. And you said autonomic plus is included. Typically that costs 2500.

[00:19:13]>> 2500. So, they're including it for the with the launch edition. They said I believe for a limited amount of time.

[00:19:19]So, not sure for how long, but basically the Autonomy Plus includes all of their autonomy capabilities and as it improves, it's included uh and for the life of the car. So, you don't have to pay a monthly subscription. So, you can choose to pay a monthly subscription at 50 bucks a month, too, if you buy a different edition than the launch edition.

[00:19:42]>> Got it.

[00:19:42]>> So, that's awesome. In my view, the launch edition is the one to go with. It also has like Porsche level acceleration, so you're going 0 to 60 in 3 and a half seconds. I mean, it's just a phenomenal car in terms of performance and range and capabilities. And you can also take it off-road and you can have five passengers and, you know, beat a Porsche 911 at a red light, right? It's just like, how much better than that can it get? So, I I I love the potential of this company. So, this company just keeps getting better and it stock price just keeps going lower.

[00:20:15]>> Yeah. I mean, that was another reason why I bought yesterday is it's just I feel like we're at this uh turning point for the company right before the R2s start to deliver that this just seemed like such a great opportunity. One other thing I wanted to call out about Rivian is they have a price to sales ratio of about three, which seems pretty low uh for a company in the space, but I want to get your thoughts on it.

[00:20:42]>> Well, it depends what you mean by this space. Uh if you mean relative to Tesla, yes, it's extremely low. If by this space, you mean the car industry. The car industry has historically gotten a price to sales ratio of like under one >> which which is understandable considering the car industry as a whole is not growing. So you know Ford's revenues today are roughly what Ford's revenues were 10 years ago and same with GM and in fact they might be slightly lower. Um but you know especially inflation adjusted whereas uh companies you know like a Rivian is expected to grow revenues like 50% year-over-year.

[00:21:22]That's just not going to happen for Ford or GM or anything like that. So it makes sense for there to be a premium. Now that said, um Rivian's financials are going to get worse before they get better because they're still losing money and uh you know they are not anticipated to be cash flow positive for at least another year, maybe longer. Uh so you know this company is going to need to either raise more money or um become extremely conservative with it with the way in which it spends. So chances are there will be more dilution events that uh that occur. Now the good news is that it has enough money to get through the next roughly one year. So it's not like urgent where like Lucid for example has to raise money like all the time in order for it to survive uh a few more months. But uh but it's not like the perfect place that you want to be as a company where you have to raise in within the next year in order to sort of make it. Um but as the stock price if the stock price were to sort of start going up because it starts making deliveries of R2s and the R2 customers become fans and those fans are like well I want to own piece of this company then it is possible that the stock price could go up significantly from here and then as it goes up it becomes easier and easier to raise more money and this is exactly you know how Tesla was able to sort of like raise the many billions of dollars that it needed to sort of survive and make it to profitability.

[00:22:51]So, I'm, you know, optimistic obviously that something like that will happen for Rivian.

[00:22:57]>> Me, too.

[00:22:58]>> Hey guys.

[00:22:59]>> Yeah, Adrian.

[00:23:01]>> The voice from nowhere.

[00:23:03]>> The the voice in the cloud.

[00:23:06]>> But I just wanted to jump in here. A couple people are asking um a little bit more about Rivian. So, um, this person, um, you kind of have already been talking about your excitement, but this person wants to know at what point would you question buying more?

[00:23:28]>> Yeah. So, so, you know, for everybody, it's their comfort level, right? Like, Rivian happens to be my second largest investment only after Micron. It was my largest investment pri prior to M Micron that I've ever made in any company. So, it's still the second largest investment I've ever made in any company and it's actually very close to my micron investment. Now, the price, yes, is back down to uh just around what I purchased it at. Um, would I add more? Maybe, but you know, I'm also my portfolio is also at like an all-time high, so hovering around all-time highs. So, I'm trying to reduce cash and I'm again going to have a massive tax bill. So, I'm trying to plan for those things. Um, so I might delay purchasing for now and see what happens.

[00:24:16]Yeah. And and of course Dustin just bought some Rivian, so feel free to comment on that if you want.

[00:24:21]>> No, I I I commented with my dollars. Um, >> okay. We do have some breaking news. Uh, Nvidia did release their earnings.

[00:24:33]So, let's jump to that.

[00:24:35]>> It was a double beat. They beat revenue by over 3%. They were expecting or analysts were expecting $79 billion and they it they ended up coming in at around $81.5 billion. EPS beat by uh over 6%. Analysts were expecting $1.76 and it came in at $187.

[00:24:58]Uh and let's see. And the stock is down roughly 2 and a half% hours. after hours. Interesting.

[00:25:08]A double beat is no longer good enough for Nvidia. Um, >> there you go.

[00:25:13]>> Now, now granted, the uh the the beats were as a percentage of revenue and percentage of uh profits were 3% and 6%.

[00:25:24]Which is respectable considering the dollar amounts that we're talking about.

[00:25:28]So, um the Nvidia just beat revenues by roughly 2 billion a quarter. If you annualize two billion a quarter, that's like roughly eight billion dollars. So Nvidia just beat revenue numbers by roughly an8 billion sized revenue company.

[00:25:48]That that's an interesting way to sort of like look at it, right? Um you you know if they bought a company that was generating $8 billion worth of revenues uh it would be the equivalent of what they just beat by.

[00:26:03]So >> right it's kind of interesting.

[00:26:06]>> Yeah it's it's massive numbers. It's it's almost hard to wrap your head around how big the numbers are.

[00:26:12]>> Right. And if you analyze annualize uh what was their u uh EPS earnings per share? uh >> dollar 87 dollar 87 that means like if you annualize that assuming zero growth that's roughly $75 of uh annual profits per share and what's the price point right now >> price point after hours is uh $218 >> so 218 divided by 7 and a half is trading at a PE of roughly 29 right like it's it's not an expensive stock it's pretty impressive. I mean, I don't own any Nvidia, so I have no reason to be sort of trying to pump it or dump it or whatever. Like, I basically am just a fan watching from the sidelines, but um it's not an expensive stock, and it just continues to crush it every quarter.

[00:27:03]It's amazing.

[00:27:05]Yeah. Um Okay, let's go to a little project you've been working on. So I want you to break down obviously what it is but also how you built it because I think that's an interesting story as well.

[00:27:23]>> So okay so um to give background on this when I sold my company I set aside some money for um foundation for nonprofit activities um and nonprofit work and uh basically uh it's kind of hard to give away money. I mean, you could just sort of like write checks to sort of bunch of charities if if you want to, which is kind of what I've been doing because I don't have a lot of time to spend on uh on it. Uh long term, I want to actually do something far more meaningful with how I spend the money for the nonprofit activity for uh from the foundation from my foundation. Uh but in the short term since I don't have time I kind of like do need to write checks to uh to you know whatever number of charities and like I don't know which charities to uh to which nonprofits to donate to. Now I do a b like handful of work but I need to do more because the number keeps growing by the way because uh the the foundation's um portfolio is also invested in similar stocks to to my stock. the the number keeps growing. So I have to like donate more every year.

[00:28:36]>> The problems.

[00:28:37]>> Wait, so sorry. Are there rules around like how much you need to sell in the portfolio every year and donate or like how does that >> Well, you you have to roughly donate 5% of the um foundation's assets uh every year. So, so there is uh some aspect of that that um is in play and there's some things you can do. So, so, so you can get a little bit more time, but fundamentally 5% of the assets of the um foundation have to be donated. But in any case, I'm trying to sort of like find ways to uh make better donations.

[00:29:10]Uh and um uh you know, one of the things that I came up with is a fun way to potentially make it so that uh the nonprofits that I donate to get a little bit more visibility, but also like anybody can suggest a nonprofit and based on the votes um it could it could actually uh roll something up that I wouldn't have even known about. So I created this website called 100tiles.com.

[00:29:38]So here I'll show you I'll show you the website. So this this is the website. So there's a 100 tiles available on this website. Anybody can go on here and claim a tile by simply clicking on it.

[00:29:50]Um and then when you click on a tile, it asks what's the nonprofit that you're sort of like claiming this tile for. Uh and then you can put in the website address for that nonprofit. Um, and if all hundred tiles get taken up, uh, in any 24-hour period, I will donate $1,000 to the nonprofit that gets the highest number of votes. And I've been doing this now for I I updated the website to be based on these rules about 3 days ago. Um, so you can s sort of see like the daily archives. Uh, so this is the first day after I updated it. There's a um handful of um uh charities that were suggested like for for charity water or for golden grads or you know for pursue it if you want it and so on and so forth and you can go to each one of these websites. It's kind of cool. So you can kind of discover charities but we've never we haven't in the past three days anyway we haven't gotten close to the 100 tiles being um being taken. So I haven't had I haven't donated yet any amount of money. And the idea is that I'll donate $1,000 a day to one of the charities that's on one of these tiles every day for up to a hundred days in 2026. So that's a total of $100,000 of donations um that that I'll be making.

[00:31:07]So um if it happens and uh you know you know >> we have 100 people listening right now.

[00:31:14]So if everyone just uh entered in a tile it today would be your first day. You can go suggest literally any nonprofit that you want as long as they're a 5013C uh organization. They qualify. So you you can go on there and suggest a tile.

[00:31:32]And there's some like cool little animations that happen. By the way, if you if we stay on the homepage, is anyone going to, you know, uh do a tile?

[00:31:41]And by the way, the tiles update. Here we go. This one just happened right now for >> Hunkai. Hunkai or whatever. And you can draw on your tile, by the way. So, um, in real time, it updates it for everyone. It's just a fun little project. Now, to make this website, uh, I, uh, wanted to sort of learn how to use AI to build websites and or do software development. I've been in software development all my life and I haven't used AI yet. So, this was my first project where Claude literally wrote every single line of code for this website. There's a backend, there's server components, there's a database, it's a multi-user app where, you know, there's socket updates happening. Um, it's just unbelievable, which just made me even more impressed by Anthropic as a company. So, uh, yeah, it's kind of exciting. Here's another one for Palestine.

[00:32:33]>> Um, so there there we go. This, uh, hundredtiles.com. If you're interested in promoting your nonprofit or any nonprofit for that matter, it's kind of a fun way to do it.

[00:32:45]It's awesome.

[00:32:45]>> Yeah.

[00:32:46]>> So, when you were building it, did you even look at the code at all?

[00:32:51]>> No, I've never even looked at the code.

[00:32:53]You know, there there was a number of bugs. I had COD just like look at the bugs and I describe the bugs to it and it would fix the bugs. I am so blown away by AI right now, it's not even funny. And I and I built the whole site in like maybe couple hours a day for over three days. uh which is even more mind-blowing.

[00:33:14]>> Um >> yeah.

[00:33:15]>> So yeah.

[00:33:16]>> Yeah. And like what boggles my mind is like obviously this is only the beginning. It's only going to get crazier from here, right?

[00:33:24]>> So it it's a very exciting and somewhat scary time.

[00:33:30]>> Yeah. I mean I I I view it as more and more exciting. like it I was more scared of it three years ago and now I'm just like wow this can just enable so much more you know I'm I'm kind of >> absolutely I think it's similar to the internet where like in theory the positives outweigh the negatives um >> right >> you know but there are definitely negatives to it >> right >> um okay let's get to listener questions Adrian what do we have >> hey guys Hello.

[00:34:04]>> We have so many listener questions.

[00:34:08]>> Um, so we'll see what we can.

[00:34:09]>> You seem super excited, Adrian.

[00:34:12]>> Oh, I'm I'm just so overwhelmed. It's It's just amazing.

[00:34:17]>> Let's do it.

[00:34:17]>> I'm I'm also trying to figure out h how to answer all of them. So, >> okay.

[00:34:22]>> We have a lot of time today, so hopefully we can we can get through a lot.

[00:34:26]>> Yeah. Hi, how do you guys react to one of your stocks getting a short squeeze?

[00:34:30]I'm in te long term, but today it went up 30% I believe. That's from >> Yeah. Well, congratulations for being in something that is getting short squeezed. Um, >> absolutely.

[00:34:40]>> For for those who don't know what short squeeze means is that like uh sometimes uh people speculate that a stock is overvalued and they sell it short, meaning they they sell the the stock without actually owning it. This is something that I do not think should even be legal, but um but unfortunately it is. and uh and it creates an overupp of a stock and causes the stock price to go down temporarily. Um and what happens is if the stock is you if the company's performance is actually bad and uh you you know um the price the performance of the company goes down the price of the stock might also go down and then short people people who are short the stock can cover their short by buying it and uh and paying back the borrowed share that they have uh they have previously sold. It's just kind of a crazy idea that literally I do not know of any other sort of uh industry that it applies to except for the stock market.

[00:35:40]What it it blows my mind. But but anyway, a short squeeze happens when the price the company's performance actually does well and the price of the stock goes up and uh all of a sudden there's a lot of people who speculated that it should go down, but now as the stock price goes up, they're kind of short the stock. So they have to buy the stock causing the stock price to go up even higher and this sort of like uh cycle continues and this is exactly what drove the GameStop fiasco. If you remember uh during the GameStop fiasco the shortselling had happened to the to the point of more than 100% of the stock was short shorted meaning like more shares were shorted than they were even available. more shares were borrowed to be sold supposedly um than should have been available to even borrow. So there's all kinds of problems with shorting. Uh but then as people were trying to cover the stock price was going up which was causing more people to be interested in the stock which was causing the stock price to go even higher which forced short sellers to cover even more and it caused this sort of you know uh crazy stock price and it it literally went up 50fold in in the course of what like a few months. Yeah.

[00:36:56]>> Um >> so that that was the extreme case of GameStop. Um but in you know I don't know about this company TE but uh what what I would say is that if if it seems overvalued then you know you might want to consider selling some or significant portion but you know obviously that's going to be a personal decision but um if it seems still undervalued maybe the short squeeze is not even enough yet.

[00:37:19]Who knows? But um I don't know anything about uh TE in particular to comment about it though. Yeah, I don't know about the dynamics of TE either in regards to like how do you handle a short squeeze? Um it's very hard like mentally cuz there's an element of greed that sets in of like well can it go even higher because it's going up so fast and then all of a sudden it you know goes back down in a lot of cases not always but in a lot of cases >> also because these things are so non-transparent meaning you don't know that the reason is because of a short squeeze right like Rocket Lab went up 30% in one day also post uh you uh uh earnings report. So, was that due to a short squeeze? We don't actually know, right? It's all speculation. The following day, it went up another 10%.

[00:38:11]So, had you know, so um it it's hard to know, but yeah, the the way I would think about it is um in regards to like should you sell or should you keep holding or whatnot is how what percentage of your portfolio do you want this stock to be? So, like if it's 10% of your portfolio right now after the squeeze, but you want it to be 20% of the portfolio, then maybe there's nothing to do here because it's just growing into the position size you want it to be. But if it's 10% of your portfolio and you want it to be 5%, well then maybe it's time to sell half. Um, so that's how I would think about it is like what allocation do you want to give it in your portfolio as opposed to just like looking at the the stock price by itself.

[00:38:55]You ready for the next?

[00:38:56]>> Just to be clear, this is like not investment advice. We're we're just sort of spectating what we would do. Yeah.

[00:39:03]>> Yeah. Let's do let's do the next. Yeah.

[00:39:04]Yeah.

[00:39:05]>> Okay. Same listener real quick. Is there a way to see where a country was found, a company was founded based out of or mainly does business in on earnings?

[00:39:15]>> Earnings hub. Uh no there there currently that is that information is not available but earnings hub only includes companies that are uh listed on the US markets. So uh most of them are Americanbased but some are uh foreignbased. Usually you have to have a pretty significant presence in the US for there to be a listing though.

[00:39:36]>> Ready for the next one?

[00:39:37]>> Let's do it.

[00:39:39]>> Okay. We kind of just touched on this but we touched on it before but here we go. This listener Hamid, you've mentioned that you invest only in US-based companies, but once SK Hinx and Kioia get listed in the US stock market, would you be interested?

[00:39:56]>> Maybe, but the the reality is that uh I I love Micron and they're all in the same business, right? Uh actually I don't know about Kioxia but um Micron and SK Heinix are in the same business and um uh you know I've already done my research on on Micron and uh I I like the CEO. I love I like the management team. It's executing really well. I'm going to stick with that with that horse. I'm not into diversification. So, you know, I don't want to bet on like six different companies in the same space.

[00:40:30]The the other thing to note is just because a company is listed in on the US stock market does not mean it's a United States company. Um so there are companies that are are listed like Alibaba is an example that we've talked about where I know you have no interest in because it's a Chinese company not an American company. Not only that, but in Alibaba's case, there's a you actually don't own shares in the company. In in typically that's not the case. Even if the um uh meaning when you own shares in the company, you do own a piece of it.

[00:41:06]In Alibaba's case, you actually don't own a piece of it. You own representation of it in this phantom organization that is made in the Cayman Islands. It's just like this crazy structure when you look into it that like I want to I don't want to touch with a 10-ft pole. So, um, yes, it technically represents the the company, but it's not actually the company that you're owning in Alibaba shares in particular. So, yeah.

[00:41:33]>> Okay, this is a fun one.

[00:41:36]Hamid and Dustin, do you have any favorite finance related movies? Mine will always be 1987's Wall Street.

[00:41:43]>> Greed is good. I I hate that speech and I hate that, you know, that's uh in the psyche of the uh uh American u social environment.

[00:41:54]Um no, I don't I don't have a particular movie that I love. In fact, most finance related movies frustrate the hell out of me.

[00:42:04]>> Oh, I love The Big Short. Do you not like it?

[00:42:07]>> That was That was interesting. uh but uh you know I like I don't like the concept of shorting in general like I think that you're betting against a company companies uh doing well and I like fundamentally don't like that right I don't want a company to fail but I thought the movie was great >> yeah the movie was entertaining I would say the big short was entertaining and then Michael Bur right um he was the he was the guy and he's >> he's been basically a failure ever since in terms of predicting the uh the hundred of the next two three down cycles.

[00:42:48]>> Yeah.

[00:42:48]>> So if if you're constantly predicting oh you know everything is overvalued and you're right twice out of a hundred times uh you know like how how good are you really? So I I think it g him too much credibility. Unfortunately, >> the movie did and and he doesn't necessarily deserve it, but yeah.

[00:43:10]>> Um okay.

[00:43:14]Have you looked into VCX? I think that's Fundrise Innovation Fund.

[00:43:19]>> Um it allows the secondary market to invest in private companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and others. It IPOed at like 24x and is now around 12x.

[00:43:30]Wondering your thoughts.

[00:43:32]>> Um I have not looked into that but if it IPOed at 25 times the NAV which is the net asset value that means it was 24 times roughly overvalued unless the underlying assets have gone up in value and it hasn't the NAV has not been repriced which is the the NAV gets repriced every quarter if I'm not mistaken. So that could happen but 24 times is a lot. um RVI which is Robin Hood's uh fund that is doing the exact same thing uh is in a similar type of boat right now it's NAV is uh its price point is roughly two times than than NAV so to me something like an RBI just not knowing anything else uh would seem much more valuable than a VCX right if if VCX is trading at 12 times its net asset value and RVI is trading at uh two to three times its net asset value. RVI seems like a much better potential investment. So, um, generally speaking, I'm not interested in these. I'd rather bet on individual companies. The reason I own RVI specifically was just to sort of like, um, dapple with uh, with Robin Hood's venture fund and see how that works. And it's been super interesting actually.

[00:44:50]But I have no interest in like massively increasing my investment there.

[00:44:57]>> Are you are you done?

[00:44:59]>> Yeah. Sorry. Let's go to that another question.

[00:45:02]>> All right. Let's go to this listener. Do you think it's a good idea to buy MUU instead of MU, which is ETF times two?

[00:45:11]>> Yeah. So, it's a leverage leverage ETFs is a good question. Yeah, I I have never done any of the leverage ETFs personally. Um, you know, it's kind of an interesting uh I I also don't know the technical details of how they work. So, if you're 2x leveraged, for example, and the stock price goes down 50%, do you lose 100% of your money? I I don't know if that would be the case, but if you were technically two times leveraged on your own, that would be true. Uh I don't know how that would work for muou uh and I've never looked into these type of uh ETFs. I personally prefer not to leverage.

[00:45:52]>> Yeah.

[00:45:53]>> I al yeah I also stay away from leverage. I think uh it's very easy to be greedy which is what I was just talking about with um the short squeeze conversation and this just plays into that. Um, and I need to maintain a level head. Um, and it's just harder to do that. Even though it could be more financially uh, lucrative. It's just more of a dangerous mind game for me at least. Um, so I don't I don't touch the leverage ETFs.

[00:46:23]>> Yeah.

[00:46:25]>> Okay. You next. You ready for the next one?

[00:46:28]>> What else we got? Let's do it.

[00:46:29]>> Quick update.

[00:46:30]>> Today's questions day since we didn't spend enough time on it last time.

[00:46:34]>> Yeah. Uh quick update for this listener.

[00:46:37]Which is your one largest largest holding?

[00:46:40]>> So fortunately you don't ever have to ask that question because my portfolio as uh can be seen here in on savvytrader as well as Dustin's portfolio are both available um on savvytrader.com. You can you can subscribe to them and see exactly which um which holding is the largest.

[00:47:00]>> You're not in the right window. Oh, sorry.

[00:47:03]>> If you're showing it.

[00:47:05]>> Oh, I was showing it, but I was not on the right window. You're right. So, so here's sort of my portfolio. You can see exactly that. Uh, my largest holding right now is Micron. My second largest Rocket Lab. Third largest is Cash.

[00:47:19]Fourth largest is Meta, Robin Hood, Rivian, Bumble, um, Bitcoin, and RBI.

[00:47:25]So, these these are sort of like all of my holdings. They're up to date. Uh generally they're up to the minute, meaning I'll make a trade in my brokerage account and within one minute uh I usually update my um Savvy Trader account. Uh in fact, usually it's less than a minute. Uh sometimes I load it up in my Savvy Trader before I even make the trade in my brokerage account and I hit the button at the same time just so that people can be notified of my trades at the exact moment that I make them. So um so yeah at any given time uh you can see my my portfolio and what percentage of my portfolio is in is in what and you can be notified of any trades >> and that's with Dustin as well.

[00:48:08]>> Yeah, both of our uh portfolios there's a link in the description totally free um to follow. Uh my largest position is Bitcoin let me zoom in here. Bitcoin at roughly 35% and then my largest uh stock position is Rocket Lab at 20%. Um and then it it dramatically decreases from there where it goes to cash at 10% uh Rivian at 5% so on so on. So >> very nice.

[00:48:39]>> Okay, this one's for Hamid.

[00:48:43]>> Hi Hamid. Is US market overvalued considering the higher 10-year bond yields?

[00:48:50]>> Um, it depends on which stock you're referring to. I I don't look at sort of like the Well, there's nothing in the in the um main markets that cause me to sort of be extremely concerned about overvaluation.

[00:49:05]Uh, and since I'm sort of focused on the tech sector, I always compare it to other sort of like other markets. And today or yesterday I may have pointed out for example that Walmart trades at roughly 50 times earnings and Google, Apple, Amazon, uh Meta, U Nvidia are all trading between 20 and 45 times earnings and they're all growing outpacing Walmart's uh growth pace by multiple factors. Right? Walmart is growing at roughly 4%. um all these tech companies are growing at uh you know 15 20 30 40 50% or or higher even in Nvidia's case.

[00:49:47]So, um I don't necessarily think that the markets are massively overvalued, but you know, they are nearing or trading at near all-time highs or at all-time highs depending on the week.

[00:50:00]And um you know, there can always be some kind of correction as we've seen even in the past couple of years. And those corrections could last a long time or they could they could be short times.

[00:50:13]Those things are very hard to predict.

[00:50:15]And from my perspective, I like to have enough cash to be prepared for things going wrong, right? And and that's the way sort of like I deal with it personally.

[00:50:30]>> So next, >> um let's go to the next question. Yeah, >> you ready?

[00:50:36]>> Let's do it.

[00:50:36]>> Um this is another one for Hamid. Hey Hamid, are you interested in any digital banks? I think the sector still has a lot of room to go and one high-risk highreward company I personally own is Lending Club.

[00:50:50]>> I haven't looked at that sector in particular, but of course I own Robin Hood. It's one of my largest or you know, one of the investments in my portfolio. All of my portfolio investments are relatively uh large since I only have like six companies. Um but um but Robin Hood uh is getting into the banking sector, digital banking sector and uh uh it hasn't fully released its product to the public yet, but in its beta it seems to be growing really well and the assets under uh its banking division is growing rapidly. So my bet is on Robin Hood in in that sector. So I'm not looking to add a different one.

[00:51:32]So London Club back in the day I was really uh not as a stock but as a uh company I was just very interested in. I don't I think they've pivoted fairly significantly but it used to be really focused on anyone can provide uh a loan to anyone else. It's kind of like a democratizing loan. So, like you can, you know, make interest on uh, you know, someone someone paying off your loan and you could see, uh, you know, different credit ratings and whatnot. Um, I just thought it was fascinating as opposed to like, you know, putting your your money in a savings account or or even in the stock market. Um, but I don't think it ever really took off. And I believe they're they're pivoting more into and I could be wrong here because I don't follow them too closely now, but I think they're more of a digital going into the digital banking space.

[00:52:32]>> Um, but I like what you said because I already own Robin Hood, I'm not too interested in looking at any other companies just because there's going to be too much overlap.

[00:52:46]>> Adrian, another one. Yeah.

[00:52:48]>> Okay. Oh, whoops. We already did this one.

[00:52:52]Um, what about the Treface team article on Rivian? How software can 10X Rivian stock? What's your take?

[00:53:02]>> I haven't seen uh that article, but um, you know, lots of things could 10x Rivian stock. That's the reason why I own it.

[00:53:12]Um, I wouldn't own Rivian if I didn't think it it has 10x potential. uh just to just to be clear because uh it's a company that is not yet profitable uh and financially it's uh it's not financially strong like for example uh like Meta is a very financially strong company. It's extremely profitable and it's sort of like undervalued. Um, but it might not have 10x potential because uh, you know, there's like lots of things going for Meta and that's the reason I own Meta.

[00:53:48]In Rivian's case, it's extremely uh, undervalued, but it's also sort of like financially not that strong and um, it's on the verge of this like massive potential growth which is not going to provide it with um, huge cash inflows for at least another couple of years for it to be cash flow positive. maybe even longer than a couple of years. So, so you know, financially it's not that strong, but uh based on all the technologies, based on all of the things that it has built, uh this company is extremely valuable to almost anyone who would want to do EVs, autonomous driving, um softwaredriven vehicles, charging network. I mean like all of these aspects assets that Rivian has they just add up to be like so much more valuable than the company's currently valued again in my opinion and um if you know uh it would shock me if this company was not 10 times its current valuation in five years um but you know who knows I mean that's those are the sort of like uh risks as investors that we take um you know it could also struggle for the next five years it's like hard hard to know for sure. What what I do know for sure is that 5 years ago, this company was worth roughly 10 times its current valuation and it didn't have any of these things that it has today. Um like not nearly as much as it has today. Today it has 10 times more assets and uh and uh technology uh and it's worth onetenth what it was 5 years ago. So, you know, I suspect it it it has done this sort of like seessaw thing where it went down by 10x, it's going to go up by 10x, and in between it has gotten a hundred times better of a company um between those 10 years. So, >> okay, let's do this. I think this will be our last question. So, let's do it.

[00:55:48]>> Let's go.

[00:55:49]>> Have you looked into Snapchat stock?

[00:55:51]Snap. Um they might swing into a big profit in Q3 and Q4.

[00:55:57]I have uh largely because uh my my children are in Snap literally all the time and uh this is one of those companies where uh I had to sort of like look into them just to see like you know is this the future? What's going on? And uh the kids are always using it. So um there there's definite potential there for this company to be very profitable and a great player. And I like the founder. He's still running the company.

[00:56:25]I think uh uh I forget his name. It starts with a s um Spiegel some something like that. But anyway, >> what is it? Evanel.

[00:56:37]>> Yes, that's him. Uh so uh Evan super smart guy. I like I like his attitude. I like his energy. I think uh he's very innovative obviously. Um and he's got the attention of like teenagers. was like pretty interesting group to get their attention because as they grow you kind of like keep their attention. Um so uh super interesting company. I I kind of keep a close eye on them but they have been unimpressive in terms of actually make delivering profits uh and in terms of uh significant growth. Uh both of those things have been relatively disappointing. uh and therefore I have picked Meta as my uh choice in terms of investment because Zuckerberg has made a cash cow and um growing faster than uh than Snap despite Snap's innovations as well.

[00:57:30]>> Yeah, I also because I own Meta I I compare it to them. Um Evan is great. I think Zuck is a much better founder. um and CEO than Evan is. Um, also Meta as a business, they have way more uh product depth than Snapchat does. Um, I'm not I even if the and I haven't looked at their their numbers, but even if the numbers are great, like I just don't see Snapchat being around forever.

[00:58:09]um >> you know like >> teenagers teenagers might disagree with you because I don't think you can try snap >> teenagers are gonna grow up it's it's similar to uh like Facebook has changed dramatically over the last 10 years right like the teenagers that were using Facebook a lot of them are off Facebook now >> because they're using Snapchat or they're using Instagram or they're using something else >> but those teenagers as they have grown they they have continued to be using or they continue to be using Facebook and they have more money and therefore they're spending money on Facebook on the ads that they see in Facebook. You know what I mean? So like if if they continue to do a good job and keep their existing user base as the user base grows and has access to more money, they can monetize better. And I don't know, it's there is a case to be made for Snapchat for sure, but I'm I'm not there yet for for >> Absolutely. I just think it's a lot of ifs and I think there's more going against them than for them.

[00:59:08]>> Plus, if you just look at the uh ad spend on uh Facebook's products versus Snapchat, it's not even close. Um obviously that could change and you could look at that as like, oh, there's a ton of opportunity, >> right?

[00:59:23]>> Um I don't know. I I think I think Meta um to me is the much more >> exciting play here.

[00:59:30]>> Yeah, 100% agreed.

[00:59:32]Awesome. Should we wrap it up there then?

[00:59:35]>> Let's do it. Episode 40 in the books. We did it.

[00:59:38]>> Awesome. Thank you. Yeah. Thanks everyone. If and if you like what you saw, subscribe, you know, do the things.

[00:59:44]Rate us.

[00:59:44]>> I thought we weren't supposed to say that anymore.

[00:59:46]>> Well, um, one one thing I would love to see more of is uh comments on um on what people think in uh on the podcast. So, if you're listening to this on like Apple Podcast or something, I'd love to hear your comments on Apple Podcast. So, uh go in there and and rate it and uh you know, tell us what you think.

[01:00:11]They're