When a market becomes overextended, characterized by a significant portion of stocks trading below key moving averages (such as the 200-day line) while making all-time highs, it creates a dangerous trading environment where the market is likely to consolidate or correct before continuing its trend. Traders should watch for warning signs like the put-to-call ratio reaching extreme levels and the number of stocks making 20-day highs approaching unsustainable levels, as these indicate the market is stretched and needs to cool off before moving higher.
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
Pre Market Must WatchAdded:
We'll be starting in a few minutes, folks. I'm a little bit early today as as per my promise.
All right, here we go.
Good morning and happy Friday, everybody. Happy Friday. I can't believe it's Friday already. Hopefully everybody could hear me. Okay, hopefully you guys could see me. Okay. Um, it's been a it's been a pretty long week, but it's been an interesting week. There hasn't been all that much uh uh there hasn't been all that much stuff going on in terms of um um in terms of anything new in the market except for earnings and some news from Iran. But the market has been holding pretty steady. Let me say good morning to everybody and then we'll begin. I'm I'm trying to wake up a little earlier every day uh to make sure to make sure that uh I'm here on time.
It takes me about, excuse me, it takes me about half an hour uh to about 40 minutes to to get ready for this session.
And anytime there's a tech issue, it obviously eats into that. So, I'm going to I'm trying to give myself an extra excuse me, an extra 10-minute buffer so that I am not late because you guys are very important to me and I want to make sure you guys get value. All right, let me say good morning to everybody and we'll begin. And folks, now we have 103,000 subscribers. It looks like we're adding about 1,000 subscribers every 2 days to this channel, which I'm really happy about. Um, it takes about 90 days for folks to kind of, you know, get get everything together. But, uh, here we are. And folks, if you still haven't gotten signed up for the Sniper Scalper launch, here is the link to do so. Okay.
Uh, let me actually ask somebody something here.
All right, let me just ask someone something here real quick.
Okay. Sorry about that. All right. Let's say hello to everybody and let's begin.
Good morning, Seth, Ivano, Brian. Good morning to you. Hi, Grounder. Richie, John, Robert, good morning everybody.
Good morning, Kathleen, Dave, Brendan.
Happy Friday to you, too. Yuri, good morning. Bob, High IQ, Johnny, Devin, Diana, Jody, um, Dur uh, Durac, sorry if I'm mispronouncing your name. I I am so sorry. D U R G A K. If I'm mispronouncing it, I apologize. Vernon, Dave, Chris, Keith, Lloyd, Doug, uh, Doug, CDW57, Ray, good morning to you, sir. James, Wade, uh, Jill, good morning to you.
Good morning. Same here, Jill. I feel exactly the same way. short week and I'm exhausted. I think because of my dad. By the way, my dad is recovering. Um uh my dad is recovering well. He's going home today. I want to thank you all for the wishes. He was he was pretty boisterous last night trying to walk and uh it was pretty frisky, but he's doing better. He's going home in a couple hours. My wife is going to pick him up and uh I'm going to visit him tonight after the the session. Uh Gregory, good morning. Mint, thank you again for the wonderful wishes. I do appreciate it. I I really do. Uh Karen the shark is here.
Illinois's grain farmer, good morning to you, sir. Bernie the bear. Charlie, Omar, good morning, sir. Good morning, Omar. Uh Mazo, we got Jim, we got Bob, we got Arnof, we got Walter, we got Art, Stan, uh Jeff, Ernest, Dr. Luke, um Raj, we got uh Regina, we got Paul, we got Charlie, we got the Dragon Dawn. Good morning, Dragon Dawn. I haven't seen you in a few days. I hope you're doing okay.
We got Car Rod. Carro Rod, you must be new here. Good morning. Getting a lot of new people here. So, please welcome all the new folks that are coming in here.
It takes about 90 days for people to start feeling at home here. That's usually what the number is.
So, don't be shy. Say hello. Good morning, Cairer. Eagle Beagle, good morning. I responded to your email this morning. Uh, Dur Dur Dur, good morning, George. Uh, Sandy, good morning to you.
Good morning. Always good to hear from you. Adrian, uh, Omar, Colette, Duff, Sandra, Tucker, David, New York City, Rob, Steve, David, Vaughan, Adrian, good morning, sir. Gino, Robert, Bill, Cheese, Great Trader, Genevieve, Rosalyn, uh, Chris, Krishna, Steve, uh, we got Stefan, good morning. Good morning. Yeah, the launch is going to be exciting. I'm very excited about the launch. We got Forest, we got, uh, um, Joan, I like when you post your name, Joan. I I don't like calling you Goober's mom. I like calling you Joan. I just have to remember your name. It It takes a few days. Uh Lorski, uh Lorski, Steve, Frank, uh Rob, Tom, uh we got Henry infinitely. We got William. We got Richard. Stacy, George, thank you, George. I appreciate that.
Penny, good morning to you. Good morning, Penny. Charles, Scott, uh Mortimer. Mortimer. I love that name.
Every time I read Mortimer, I think about trading places. I love that name.
I love that name. Minnesota Mad, good morning. And uh you're gonna have to send me some more pictures of Lucy.
Clear pictures of Lucy. I got baby Lucy right here. Got her right here. Here's baby Lucy.
All right. We got uh Scotty Mortimer, Minnesota Matt. We got Jennifer, Jimmy, Dave, Brian, we got uh E-wing, USA.
E-wing, good morning from from Cal South Cal. Javad, good morning, Javad. I hope the fires in uh in in in Los Angeles have been uh I haven't heard anything really bad last few days, so I'm hoping that's okay. Munda, Chris, Judith, Donna, Haunted Doll is here. Oh my. Uh hello there. Good morning. Good morning everybody. Bull Rider, Jeff, Michael, Mitch, good morning Mitch, Frank, Mark, Lori, Julio, Jeff, Bob. Good morning, Bob. And thank you. Thank you for the call last night. Bob gave me a call last night. Told me that uh uh my mom wanted to sleep in the hospital. So, Bob gave me a good tip about the fold out bed. I appreciate that. That she did. She did.
She got the bed. She was good. And uh she slept really well and they're both going home. I just spoke to her a few minutes ago. Yeah, dad is doing well. My mom thinks that he's being too uh too boisterous, but you know, he is what he is. Uh he's they're trying to get him to walk already. I mean, the guy had back surgery less than 24 hours ago, and they're trying to get the guy to walk.
Go figure. Good morning, Richard. Good morning. Thank you. I appreciate that very much, Richard. I hope you're doing well as well. Fred, good morning. Um, Bob, Afad Diaz, uh, Ivan, Sherman, Mike, Mark, uh, to do more YouTube ads. Yeah, I think I got enough YouTube ads. Uh, Jennifer, Greg, uh, Nester, Harry, Goose. Good morning, Goose. We got Ruth, Kevin, we got, uh, uh, Kirk, we got Ruth, we got Chris, we got Bobby, CJ, we got Jason, we got Captain Beef. Always good to see Captain Beef. Brenton, Brendan, good morning to you. Good morning. Do you remember that?
Mortimer.
Cara from from uh from uh Yeah. from uh from Trading Places. I love it. I love that movie. Love that movie. Zachary Buddy, we got uh Bobby Peanuts. Good morning, Peanuts. Good to see you. Good to see you.
Uh no attending the flowers this morning. Uh Bob, we got uh Yeah, they're doing good. They're doing good. Same date. Yeah, same day. You too, huh? They make you walk the same. What is it with these doctors? They they make do surgeries and carve you up and then they make you walk the same day. Yes, he's doing better. Thank you. You You did You did too, Gregory. Thank you. And Gregory, thank you for that wonderful email, Mr. Mr. uh I'm over two and a half uh million. Cong congrats, Gregory.
Congrats. I posted it last night when I got it from you. John, Mr. Koopa is here. Good morning, everybody. Um a few links. We need to post some links to make everybody happy. Uh, here are the links. We gotta post the links right here. Where's Cam? I got Cam right here.
There we go. Okay. So, here's the video from customer service live yesterday.
We're going to get started in just a second.
Um, yeah. Yeah, Keith. That's what uh that's what the doctor said. There's the video from yesterday. They talked about a deep dive into bullseye trades, how to scan day trading, swing trading using ProTrader dashboard and uh trading view protrading dashboard. That's what they did yesterday. I'm going to go ahead and uh post that right here.
And um for some reason that Vimeo did not post. Let me post. Oops. I know what happened there.
There we go. There's that. And let me again try to post that video. I don't know what happened with the video.
Okay, there's the video. We got the video. And this morning they're going to talk about price structure precedes trading setup, the quantum indicator.
William R and the two folks, if you want to see something really cool, you need to attend customer service live today.
They're going to be talking about topics that I went through live during the live event. So, if you were in the live event, you'd want to see a replay of that or you'd want to attend. And uh if you did not, I would highly highly recommend you attend customer service live or review the video which I which I post for you guys every single day. As far as links, here's the link to customer service live, the Cam and Gustavo show.
Let me give that to you right now.
There's that. And uh here's the link to my Telegram channel where I'm going to start posting things for you in the next few minutes.
And here is the VIP room where we're going to have a little special something special for folks here today, which I'm not going to get into right now. That's a little surprise. Okay. And by the way, if you ever want to call C, if you want to call customer service, here's their phone number. Okay.
There's their phone number. All right.
So now you guys got everything you need.
So let's begin. I want to talk about this. Um uh I want to get into this. Okay, I really want to get into this. It's important. So the market's fairly steady today. We're not really seeing too much of anything, which is okay. It is Friday and it's a short week and we've been through a lot. The Dow is moving. Just so you guys know that in the last few days, the Dow really hasn't given us very much. Equal weighted SPY hasn't given us very much. I mean, we're at all-time highs. So this is I mean when I say not given us much I mean directional directional the level the liquidity is absolutely fantastic. I'm talking about we haven't really gone directionally in the last 3 days this week on the on equal weighted spy or the Dow and I'll get into all of that in a little bit.
Okay. Uh we'll get into all of that in a little bit. But so far we're holding steady. The only problem I'm seeing is the Russell. The Russell is a little lower and uh let me just put it up here so we can talk about the Russell as well. Remember, the Russell is the most interest rate sensitive. Okay.
And again, the Russell and the the Dow have been pretty flat last few days. I'm just kind of going back and forth, kind of giving you guys a good feel for the market. As far as Fed data, yesterday's data was not bad in light of what we were expecting. The data wasn't great, but it wasn't that bad in light of what we were expecting. If we weren't in this war right now, then I would say the data is really really bad. Okay? But we're not in this war. We're not in this war, right? I mean, we're we're in this war.
We're in the middle of all of this. Um, and folks, I'm really not getting political here. I'm just explaining to you that we're still in the middle of this mess. So, this data wasn't that bad. Okay. Um, let me just take a quick look at the petroleum status report.
Yeah, they were expecting Yeah. 3.3 barrels negative. Yeah, that's that's not good. According to them now, it's going to be till uh according to them, it's going to be middle of November to beginning of December. Even if crude oil starts coming down now and the war ends yesterday, which we know it won't because there's another 60-day extension. Uh and I'll get into that in a minute, but um we're crude oil prices is our biggest enemy right now. Okay, crude oil is our biggest enemy right now. And if you want the replay link for customer service live yesterday, here it is.
Aadas uh says, "Walking soon to help prevent blood clots, help leg compression." Yes. Bowels move. Yes.
Yes. Yes.
Pass some. Exactly. That's Thank you for that, Alpha. Yes. I appreciate that. Um and I guess that's what they're doing this morning. They're making sure he's, you know, he's all good and and and so forth. It's a great hospitals they have around here. All right. So today today we have um today we have uh Fed speakers we have Chicago PMI at 9:45 and we have international trades and goods and services. These will be important but these are not primary reports. These this is the primary reports personal income and outlays and the GDP the personal income wasn't as bad as we expected. Let me take a look at new home sales 622. Not that bad. See the the numbers are not coming out aside from that PPI which was just horrible. The numbers are not coming out that bad and earnings. So, do you remember yesterday I was telling you about Dell and I was telling you about why we're not doing time spreads. I even used Dell as an example and I showed you that the the moves this quarter are way way bigger than everything else. Well, guess what?
the the stock jumped like 20 a large cap. I've never seen large caps move like they're moving this quarter, which is why I'm not doing time spreads. And I warned you against doing time spreads this quarter. And don't come to me and say I didn't tell you because do you guys remember me telling you to stay away from time spreads this quarter because the moves are too big on the underlying assets. Do you guys remember that?
Just say yes if you remember that or say no if you don't remember that. Okay.
Bond market. I was wrong about the bond market. Actually, yesterday the bond market looked like it wanted to start coming down. The news came out. The news was way better than we expected it to be in light of the PPI that came out. And the bond market's now budding the 50-day line. We're now at our first level of support of resistance. We got to overcome this, this, this, this, and this. And I believe the only way we'll be able to do that is if we have some major fundamental data. Okay, you guys remember that. Okay. All right. Good morning, Eric from town. Good morning, Eric. New viewer. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Welcome, Eric.
Folks, if you're new, say hi just like Eric did. Introduce yourself. You know, a lot of people don't realize this, but once you come through this door, you will not leave. And I've had folks who left and came back and said, you know, I tried going somewhere else after you, and it just it wasn't the same. You ruined it for you ruined it for all the other gurus. So, folks, once you come in, you may end up being here for a while. and I've made some really good friends here. Okay. Uh yeah. Yeah.
Whatever they did, the new the moves have been unbelievable. Good morning.
Good morning. Uh good morning, Eric. And welcome, welcome, welcome, welcome, welcome, welcome. Okay, it doesn't matter why. The point is, have you seen large caps move like that? Those are crazy move. It wasn't just them. Snow, I mean, tons of stocks moved like this. It wasn't just Dell. Okay, let's The earnings are almost over. It's like the last one. We've been seeing it this whole whole quarter. Large caps have been moving like they're small caps.
It's been absolutely insane. Crude oil prices are now below my uh support level. The next level is right here. And I'm I'm cautiously optimistic, but I'm I we have so much uncertainty. We we have um we have so much uncertainty that it's um uh it's just it's there's a lot of stuff going on. There's a lot of stuff going on. And I'm not happy about this.
And I'll talk about that in a minute.
And all of you who are politically sensitive may have to close your ears for 5 minutes, but we'll get there in a minute. Uh, gold. Gold. I told you guys we're going to bottom out here, and I think we did. Um, actually, let me post this for you. This is really important.
We're doing good on time today, too. I'm in a very good mood today. It's Friday.
My dad feels better. I'm not as stressed out. I feel like myself again. We're going to be really careful here. So, I'm going to post this. I post this on the main Telegram channel for you. Yeah, I am as real as it gets. You're not going to get any BS from me. I'm too old for that. Um, TLT, the bond market went a little higher than I expected yesterday. This is very positive.
Uh but we have several resistance levels above us and if we stagnate around here, it will have a major impact on stocks. I posted that in capital letters for you guys. There it is. You guys should have it right now. Uh yes, good morning. Good morning, everybody. And folks, if you're just coming in here, where's my manners?
If you're just coming in here right now, please, please, please go to u the gearbox and make sure you're watching a 1080p.
Make sure you're watching a 1080p. And uh if you benefit from this show, please give us one thumbs up. It tends to help our ranking. Uh the 1080p will help you see this in really good quality compared to fuzzy, you know, fuzziness. You you we don't need fuzziness here. Okay.
Uh, good morning, Don. Good morning, Jeff. Good morning, Spider Monkey. Thank you. Thank you very much. Um, and again, here is the link for customer service live video if you missed it from yesterday.
Here is the link to customer service live today where they're going to have an amazing agenda.
I'll talk about silver in a second. I'll I'll talk about silver in a minute. I didn't realize here's a telegram link.
Here's the sign up link for the world premiere uh sniper scanner launch.
I'm just posting a few links and then we'll talk again. Here is my VIP room where I've got a special surprise for you guys for today. That's right, a special surprise and uh I think that's it. Yeah, I think I gave you guys everything you need. I gave you the VIP room, the telegram. Hey, Hawkeye. Good to see you, my friend. Good to see you here. He sends me some really nice pictures, cat pictures on on YouTube.
Uh, let's say hello to Kevin.
All right. All right. Crude oil. We We actually haven't gotten into gold quite yet. Let me Let me just crude oil is a little lower. Gold is gotten to here.
We're bouncing off. I think we're going to stay in this area for a while. Let me post this for you and I'll talk about silver in just one second. I didn't realize we have so many people here who are focused on silver, but I guess we do.
All right.
I believe gold is going to consolidate here for a while between the uh 200 and the 50-day line. Okay, let's go to silver. Let's go to silver.
Silver. Silver. Silver.
I guess I should probably start posting silver here every morning as well. I just don't want this to turn into a commodity hour. You know what I mean?
Good morning, Leo. Good to see you. Good morning, Tony.
H [sighs] Thank you, Tony. I appreciate that. Thank you, guys. Thank you, Lisa.
Thank you, Bob. Thank you, Laura. Good morning, everybody. And I I really hope everybody's going to have a a great weekend. Okay, so silver. Let's look at silver. Silver looks like it's uh in a symmetrical kind of building a little symmetrical.
Let's see if it's symmetrical or not.
Looks like it wants to consolidate. It doesn't really look like it it it wants to do very much.
Um you know, we hit this level right here.
We're near the 200. Honestly, I think we're going to stay around here for a while. We're going to stay around here because the US dollar does not have much directional bias. Okay. You want to see copper, Bob? All right. I'll show you copper. One second. We got some time for that.
Copper.
Let's look at copper. Probably good for us to look at copper anyway. Copper's near highs right here. This looks like it's setting up for an A-line. I like copper. And I'm actually considering some copper stocks like FCX. This is good. This is a swing high right here.
Look at 5 years. Look at what copper is doing. Comes up. Comes up. Copper is on a whole different trajectory, folks. Uh copper is on a whole different trajectory. Okay? It's not It doesn't run by US dollar. It run by it runs by computer and chip demand because we realize we need copper and it takes 20 years from the time you start mining a mine or or developing a mine takes 20 years for it to become uh actionable. So I only see copper prices going higher.
Bitcoin Bitcoin is breaking the 50. I got to post this for you. This is important folks. Please stay away from any anything relating to crypto till unless you're looking to the short side.
I'll post that as well.
Got a lot of energy today. Please stay away from crypto assets till we are back above the 50-day line unless you are looking to take a short.
Okay. So, we we may be setting up for a nice short here. Okay. We may be setting up for a nice short here.
All right.
Yeah, the ticker for Bob. You can just go right here to futures and you can go to metals and you could see all you could see it right here. If you guys want here, I'm going to post this for you guys for metals. If you want the metals tickers, they're right here.
Here's all the metal tickers on bar chart.
And here, let me give you guys let me give you guys Bob. Let me give you this link, too. I'm going to post this link.
Okay, so you can have this link, guys. Okay, this way you guys can access it whenever you want. But this is the metals page.
It's right here. Metals. And you can see all the futures and you just go with the front month. Okay, let's continue.
All right. China. China. China. China is not looking good at all. This is very bad. Matter of fact, let me take a quick look here.
See this? We broke down this level. This is weekly. Uh this is daily. Let me go show you weekly. It actually looks much better on a weekly. Weekly, we we're below this level. We are at a 50-day, but I don't I don't really pay attention to these on a weekly basis, only monthly basis. So on a daily basis. So on a daily, we we have quite a while to go here. As you could see, this is nine months. I'm going to post this for you.
I got to post this. This is important.
Look, look to the left.
We don't have much there.
China doesn't have much support to the left of of us.
Be cautious with uh Chinese ADRs.
Okay.
Be cautious with Chinese ADRs. Be very, very careful here.
Be very, very, very careful here.
Orange juice, orange juice futures. I used to trade orange juice futures a long time ago. Long time ago. Oats, orange juice. I was a big um corn trader. Okay, let's talk about fundamentals. Um, do we have Minnesota MAD and all the other folks? Let's let's talk uh Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Cam, thanks for that. Thank you for that.
See, this is why teamwork is so important. I completely forgot to tell you something, but Cam just reminded me.
When China's going down, gambling. I'm going to post this in here.
And I almost forgot. Thanks to Cam for reminding me. Uh, Chinese stocks going south is bad for casino.
Thank you, Cam. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. I knew I was forgetting something. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. So, keep eye on Las Vegas Sands. Thank you, Cam. See, this is what I'm talking about. Teamwork.
Teamwork is so good. You forget something, somebody else remembers something. These can soften as a result of China stocks breaking down.
Very strong correlation between gambling stocks and Chinese markets.
It's just the way it is. All right. All right. We got folks coming in hot and heavy. Um, Minnesota Matt infoch for sure. Yeah, you got Dell consumer staples. Yes, crude oil Japan. Fed data and speakers. Yes. Nice and clean. Fed data. Crude oil Japan. Infotech.
Consumer staples. Charles Charles and Minnesota. Matt, uh, you guys, uh, have been hanging out for too long. I love it. War. Yes, of course. Fed data, Fed speakers, infoch, consumer staples.
You're missing Japan, Walter. You're missing Japan. Mazo. Uh, Mazo says, "Infoch crude oil Japan war cons." Yes.
Yes. Yes. Yes. Steve says, "Fed data speakers infoch staples crude oil Japan." Yes. Because Ted, because Chinese are notorious gamblers and they don't hide it. Take a look at the And by the way, I'm not trying to get like uh anybody wound up. There's a huge huge correlation between China the if you look at these stocks Ted you will find that Chinese are like the biggest I don't know about the biggest but they're huge huge gamblers they contribute a massive amount of money to global casinos. If you don't know what I'm talking about, read about Macau. Okay.
So, yeah, Ted, if you did not know that, there's a huge, huge, huge correlation between China and casinos. Ra uh uh Cam is 1,000% correct. As a matter of fact, I forgot this. I was going down that road and I I stopped just I stopped at be careful of stocks, but I forgot to tell that. And he's absolutely right.
Macau. Yeah. Yeah. Just look at Macau.
Ted, look up Macau casinos and you'll understand.
They do. They love to gamble and they they're and they're pretty pretty good about it. Yeah, they're whales.
Yeah. Yeah. Mormons. I didn't know about Mormons. Prebnut says Mormons. I didn't know that about Mormons. Did never I never heard that about Mormons. I know that about Chinese for a fact, but I've never ever heard that about Mormons. I I don't know if that's uh I'm I'm uh I I never heard that before.
I used to work with about 150 Mormons at Credential Realy Group. It was my first and only job. Well, one of the two jobs that I had for someone else before I went to college. I worked for two years at Credential Realy Group and uh the uh the senior staff was run by Mormons and they loved hiring Mormons from UCLA.
Lovely people. Lovely people. Very very nice people. Very very nice people. Very honest. They were very very I I have nothing bad to say. Very nice people. Um but I didn't know they were big. I didn't know they were gamblers. I had no idea. That's the first I hear that ever.
All the casinos in Vegas built Shelton Anderson made a fortune building casinos over there. All right. So, let's talk about the news. We got the Everybody's got the same uh everybody's got the same uh catalyst. So, let's talk about this.
And by the way, we got about 638 people here. If you're coming in here right now, please go to the gearbox. I'm about to start talking about stocks. go to the gearbox and make sure we're watching a 1080p.
All right, 1080p and give us a thumbs up if you guys benefit from this. Okay, now I'm about to talk a little bit about and again, if you are politically sensitive, that's what I thought, Mike. I I never thought they I never heard of that before. That's why I said it's uh it's the first time I hear that. I've never heard that. And I know quite a lot of Mormons and I've never heard uh I've never heard about Mormons gambling. I again, first for me. All right. So, uh, investors became more confident that US and Iran are nearing a deal. Oh, boy.
Uh, US and Iran have reportedly reached a tentative deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, which would include reciprocal reopening of the Hermas during the first 30 days. uh it would mark the first phase of a multi-stage framework with the US hopes will result in Iran hopes you see this word hopes will result in Iran scaling back its nuclear programs for a decade um we we perhaps have been making a making of a deal Scott Bassen said now here's the problem with this deal here's the problem with this deal and again folks please let's all be adults here okay let's all be adults here.
That's what I thought. I've never heard of Mormon's gambling. I've I've never I never heard of that. That's what I'm what I'm saying. I've never ever heard of that. Okay. So, let's talk about this deal. Okay. Let's just for a second talk about this deal. Bloomberg reported that US and Iran have reached a provisional agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, which basically means we're going to agree to agree and begin further talks on their nuclear program.
Okay. So, so folks, I please if you're if you're highly sensitive to politics, please please close just do this for 30 seconds. Okay. Now, why did we attack Iran? We attacked Iran so Iran could stop producing nuclear weapons. Do you guys remember the comments we used to get here from people 8 weeks ago? I remember Rick I remember Rick said something very important. and he said, "I' I I'd gladly pay a few pennies more for energy prices to prevent our kids getting uh nuked." And I said, "I couldn't agree with you more. The problem is The problem is we're paying twice as much. We're paying 50% more for oil and we have absolutely no clarity on their nuclear program."
Okay. So again, why did we go why what was the purpose of this war? To prevent them from using nuclear weapons. We have no agreement in regards to nuclear weapons and all the other stuff, we have an agreement to agree, which means absolutely nothing. So as far as I'm concerned, as far as I'm concerned, all of that stuff that I've been telling you about how we have no deal when they're saying we're we have a deal, we don't have a deal, we basically they had nothing. And right now they have absolutely nothing. Here's my point of view and this is my point of view. We are not winning this war and we are going to do anything possible to spin this in a way that makes it look like we are winning this war. But the problem is we have absolutely no deal in terms of nuclear weapons. So my question is what the was the point of all of this? Why why not just negotiate with them and say if we don't do anything we're going to have a war? And I know I know people are going to say uh that Roger, you don't know what you're talking about. Uh Roger, you're wrong. Roger, don't get into my favorite one. Don't get it don't get political. But my question to you is a real simple one. Wasn't the point of us going over there to eliminate the new threat of nuclear, which I think is the is was a great idea by the way. We don't have any of that. We don't have any of that. Uh if that were real reason at the time when we depleted our oil reserve if that were the real reason at a time let's give them some more time to settle the nuclear issue. Okay, the bombing stopped when our other countries said they cannot fly our bases and it seems to be um again so just my perspective basically the purpose of this war just remember what was the purpose of this war to prevent Iran from having nuclear.
Iran has nuclear and oil prices are higher. I'm going to leave it at that.
Okay. Um, so again, I I know you're going to say that I was wrong, but basically this tells us all that I was 100% right.
There is no deal. There's absolutely no deal. Okay. Uh Jeff says right now Trump is floating the idea that the reading and reading the room so transparent having bet speak and says hasn't approved the deal, watching the polling of the current potential deal. Uh I I don't know about any of that. It's a ceaseless ceasefire. Okay. So, uh, I'm just going to leave it at that. Okay, that's all I wanted to add on that. I'm done with my political spiel for today.
Now, let's continue with the market. Uh, sentiment improved as Dell popped 37%.
Uh, 37%. Have you ever seen Dell move 37%. Do you remember what I was telling you yesterday about why I'm not doing a time spread on Dell when you were asking me? I said to you, because stocks are moving like crazy this quarter. They're moving like I've never seen them before.
for the war to see which one.
Same deal as with tariffs. Thank you, Dave. Same deal as with tariffs. Omar says, "I think American withdrawal from Vienna under our nuclear program was a mistake." I I don't want to get too political. All I'm going to keep things to to the basics. We attacked Iran to prevent them from doing nuclear so that our children can be safe and we're willing to pay more for oil. Well, they have they have the oil. I mean they oil is 50% more expensive and uh we have absolutely no deal with anything to do with with nuclear weapons. Let's leave it at that. Okay.
So um let's just continue. I know I know people are going to tell me please Roger you're wrong. You don't know anything that you're talking about really. Well I think that this deal tells says it all.
Okay.
Snowflake, folks. Snowflake didn't pop a a a a deal with with the government like like Dell did, and it's up 36%. Have you seen large cap stocks move 30, 20, 36% on earnings and overnight? I have not.
All right.
I'm in a heavy short plus a good report.
Yeah, we we don't we don't even have a deal. There is no deal. There's no deal.
There's a uh a deal to make a deal. A deal to make a deal. All right, let's continue. I'm turning on TC2000 because I want to look at the data. We're going to get into our stuff in a minute, but I'm done with I'm done with this.
Okay, here. Let's take a look.
Let's go.
Who closed my TC2000?
All right, here we go. Who moved my cheese?
All right, bonds are Here's the bond market right here. We'll look at that in a minute. All right, so stocks are moving like crazy. This is why I said no time spread. No time spread.
Oh, where we'd be without this mess, I can't even imagine. Um, look at Agelin search 16%. Folks, Snow 36%. A 16%. Dell 30s something percent. Have you When was the last time you saw a quarter with stocks moving like this? When was the last time you saw a quarter with stocks moving like this? Right.
Okay. So, that's why I said don't do time spreads. Don't do time spreads.
Uh D.
All right. Enough, guys. Enough. Enough.
Enough. Enough. Enough of that. Enough of that. Core PCE. The Fed data wasn't bad yesterday at all. Number of Americans filing unemployment low 200,000 as we expected. Okay, this is important. Let's let's switch Let's switch focus. Let's switch switch focus.
Let's switch focus. Uh not not uh and and snow. Snow, Gregory. Snow. And um and um and another one. There was and and there was another one. Hey, six 16%.
No, no, nobody was expecting this.
All right.
All right. The Fed data wasn't bad.
Unemployment wasn't bad. What do Fed speakers say? Central bank's policy stance is well positioned to re respond to the economic effects. I agree with them. We have to we're they're being very flexible right now. They're actually saying really smart stuff and a lot of times they say some really weird crap. They're not doing that right now.
Uh, and I'm pretty hard on them. Uh, d economic effects. At the same time, St. Louis Musalem said that central banks may need to raise its policy rate if inflation does not begin easing within the next 6 months. That's right, 6 months. He didn't say the next 6 weeks.
The next 6 months. In addition, uh, Kashkari said US consumer prices remain much too high and that lowering inflation continues to be top priority.
They're they're doing the best that they can. They really are. There's a lot of information. There's a lot of information coming their way right now.
All right.
Uh we have a zero chance of the Fed doing anything, which is why the FOMC is not or the um the Fed data doesn't have as much of an impact as it usually does.
Today we'll have the Chicago PMI that comes out at um 9:45. We had international trades and goods and services. Let's see what the number was.
Huh. Didn't come out yet. That's kind of weird.
didn't come out yet. That's weird. Okay, we have Fed speakers speaking today at 9:10 9:15.
Be careful. Be careful. And Dolly speaking at 12:40. I got to tell Matt about this because this may impact um the market quite a bit. Europe Europe is up 76.
Uh optimism that US and Iran are nearing an agreement, boosting investor risk appetite. travel and luxury stocks were among the biggest gainers. That's very positive. Defense stocks which usually go down when you have speculative stocks going up also gained when geopolitical tension escalates advanced after Romania said Russia drones wounded two people in southoutheastern city during the overnight attack on Ukraine. That there this war with Russia and Ukraine something US should have learned from.
Wars are messy and they last a long time. Gregory says Micron was up. This is what I'm saying. This is what I'm trying to say Gregory. This is why I'm not doing time spreads this quarter.
We're we we see that maybe once every 10 quarters, okay? Just trying to protect you from yourselves. China closed lower, dragged down by weakness in technology sector.
Semiconductor stocks slumped on Friday.
Again, locked in profit. Look at that.
Locked in profit. They They didn't take losses. They locked in profits.
Duh. Locked in profits. They never take Look, folks. They don't They didn't take losses. They didn't take losses. They locked in profits. Look. Look. They were locking in profits. Wink wink. Right?
Nobody took losses here. They're locking in profits, right? I mean, really, do you guys see how you're just being straight up lied to by the media?
Yes. Folks, look at China. We We've been locking in profits this entire time.
Does this look like profit taking to you?
It's just so funny. Look, profit investors locked in profits following the recent rally. Really? Really?
They've been locking in profits. Hey, I want to see the mark the US stock market go down like this and me telling you guys we're locking in profits. People would be throwing throwing uh uh grapefruits at me, you know.
All right.
Um, Japan index closed sharply higher, hit a record high. Very nice optimism.
The US Iran war, the Dell trade.
Bloomberg reported that we agreed to agree to that we may agree in 60 days and we may in the future start talking about the nuclear program. Like, let's just push it back. Let's just push it back another let's create more uncertainty for 90 days for us, right?
Of course, oil prices are going to continue going lower while we we don't know what's going to happen, right?
Uncertainty creates higher prices, not lower prices. Folks, you guys know that, right? Speculation causes higher prices, not lower prices.
This is the worst thing that could possibly happen. This is But no, no, this is Iran winning because every day that oil prices stay elevated, our economy gets worse. And if our economy gets worse and we go to a recession, that's the best thing they could possibly do to us. And they're not. And if I'm telling you that, they're not stupid. They know that, too. This is the wor the worst thing we can do is play we'll decide later. We need to resolve this now. Now.
But nobody cares what I say. Dell is up 37%.
Jeez, [snorts] can't even I can't even believe I'm saying that. Oh, HP's up 17%. Super Micro is up 10%. I mean, folks, this is not normal.
Lock in my profits. Yeah, this is locking in. They call this They call this locking in profits right here. Next time we take a couple of losers, I'm just going to say, folks, we're locking in profits. And let's see how many bananas I'm going to get on my Slack channel. Don't get me started. uh space uh the the um valuation for the launch of uh SpaceX is going down. I don't think Musk has anything to do with it actually, although I'd love to blame him for something. Um but uh the valuations are going down and they're taking all these stocks that are exposed to it down. Okay.
All right.
Yeah. Lock in profits. Never Yes. Lock in profits, folks. Lock in profits. All right. Let's talk about the my some pleasantries here. The number of stocks making 20-day highs is now approaching 400. Last time it approached 400, it backed away, but we had some fundamental data. We don't have that. And this can go a little higher. Okay, we do have a fairly good exposure to the downside.
We're over 100. So, we do have a fair reasonably balanced market. Remember yesterday what I told you how this is going to look, how the sectors Let's see what's leading. Speculative.
Speculative, speculative, speculative, speculative, speculative. Eh, in the middle, speculative, speculative. The only non-speculative sectors here are communication, financial, and Bitcoin.
And Bitcoin does its own thing. But this is still looking really good. This is still looking really good. This telling us that we have pretty good exposure.
Okay. Um, as far as the number of stocks, we still have only 54% of stocks. This market is just getting stretched and it's completely lopsided.
I'm going to pose this again. This is very, very dangerous. We're in very dangerous territory here. 46% of stocks out of a thousand of the largest stocks are trading below key levels. All right, folks. We still have a an extremely lopsided market.
46% of the largest stocks in the USA are trading below the 200 day moving average.
That's a problem. That's a problem.
That's a big problem. Put the call ratio. Put the call ratio's coming up, but it's still underwater. It's still underwater and it's telling us markets need to cool off. I'm going to post this for you as well. Notice how much energy I have today. Full of energy today.
All right.
Put to call moving in the right direction but needs substantial upside.
Um to move out of over over but but still but here to move out of over extended territory for call buyers.
Okay, we still need to see more selling pressure. Notice the Dow hasn't gone anywhere the last few days. Um IWM hasn't really gone anywhere, folks.
We're really stretched out right now and we need to come back to reality. Okay.
Um, all right. Put the call ratio. The Dow again, we hit the 8day. We backed off. I'm very nervous that this is this is just going to consolidate, not go anywhere. RSP also has not really gone anywhere. Equal weight. When you take the with the weight out of the market, we haven't gone anywhere. Now, we are at all-time highs, so we don't really need to go anywhere. We got a lot of liquidity especially with Dell and all these stocks pushing up 30%. But the problem is the same stocks are going higher and higher and higher and the other stocks are not. For example, look at XLY.
Look, let me show you something. Hold on.
See sideways. Sideways. There's no breaking out here. Look at retail.
Look at retail. We're just coming up to above the 50. We're still in a downtrend. Look, retail is only coming up here. Look at financials.
We till financials get it up, folks.
It's not going to be pretty.
Look at where we are on financials.
We're far away. You take away this. You take away this.
You see that? You take away that and you take away this and you're not in a good place. You're not in a good place. Okay, big-time rubber band. SMH, we haven't gotten higher in the last we we it looks like we peaked out about two days ago, basically beginning of this week. Mags, mags are looking good. Mags are looking good. I'm actually looking again at Amazon. Mags are looking good. SPY. SPY, folks, look at the price action here.
Look at this price action. That's a rubber band. There's no liquidity here.
There's no movement here. Yesterday was the first day we had movement. Remember holiday? It takes Hold on a second.
Remember I told you it takes several days for institutions to come back in.
Okay, look at price action on the spy from Friday of last week till uh what's it Friday till Wednesday of this week? No movement, just random price action. The candles are tiny.
Now institutions are starting to get back into the market. Remember what I told you guys? There's not going to be a lot of This is Friday. This is Monday. This is t This is Friday. This is Tuesday. This is Wednesday. Do you remember me telling you that institutions are not going to come into the market till Wednesday afternoon?
Look at Thursday. We got some price action here. Today, I'm looking for us to open here and come down right here to the 8day EMA.
So, I think we're going to open up here and we're going to come right down to the 8day EMA. Right around here. Okay.
Right somewhere right around here, here, and come down to here. So, that because this is creating too much space here.
And again, this is very listless. I warned you this was going to happen.
Folks, do you remember me telling you that I'm expecting the mark the institutions not to come back till Wednesday afternoon?
Yes. Do you remember that? Yes. No. Does anybody remember that?
Anybody remember that? Okay. So, we are we're starting we're overextended. We're overextended and we need to come back here.
We need to come back here. Here, let me show you this. Let me put this We need to come back here. [snorts] QQQ is getting too stretched out and rhythm of the market is not there. We need to cool off a little bit before going higher.
This is very listless. Okay, you do remember me telling you that. All right, told you this. There's not that's why this week was very like uh just not a lot of stuff going on. All right, let's do overnight levels and then I'm going to give you stocks. Folks, is this session helping you get a feel for the market? A feel for the market. Okay.
Okay, let's go. Spy.
What's going on here?
Okay, here's Spy.
There's that.
There's that.
There's that.
That actually captures it really well.
Okay.
All right.
Just want to make sure this gives you a good feel for price action. Remember, we haven't given you top stocks yet. I'll do that in a minute.
[sighs] Be careful. We may consolidate and start coming down here. Watch the 750 755 level.
Watch the 755 level for this level on the spy closely today.
If we break, we will test the 8day EMA on daily. Okay.
You must admit that you have been saying the spy and are overextended for the last four. They are James. They are overextended. I've been saying it for the last six weeks. Not not no James, I haven't been saying it for the last four weeks. I've been saying it for the last 6 and 1/2 weeks. And uh let me show you why right here. And I'm going to keep and I and I you got to give the full picture.
I've been saying the spy has been overextended and the and the QQQ have been overextended because of this because of this.
And I'm going to keep saying it because of this.
Do you not agree with me, James? Look, 46% of the index is below the 200 day moving average. You don't think we're overextended and lopsided? Either this has to move up or this has to move down.
We are way overextended. Like way, way overextended. Okay, here. Let me show you something.
I usually don't do this, but let me show you this.
Do you do you not see that? Do you see?
Look where we've been here. Let me go.
Look at this.
Look.
Yeah. I'm I'm I'm And I'm going to keep saying it, James. Do you need to understand why I'm saying that?
This this right here and I'm going to keep saying this till this is 65.
So James, when you have a car, you have an 8 cylinder car and your car for the last your 8-cylinder car for the last 8 weeks has been going 100 miles hour and it's still going 100 miles hour, but you're only running on four cylinders.
That's called That's called something is really really wrong. It's right here.
Right there.
You guys understand that?
[laughter] That's the I haven't been saying it for four weeks, James. I've been saying it for almost eight weeks now. You're you're you're completely wrong and I'm going to keep saying it. [laughter] Look, this isn't changing. This is exactly where it was eight weeks ago.
Holy moly. Of [snorts] course you if you need to understand why. Okay. I never say anything without explaining to you the reason behind it. Okay. Also, and I'm I hate to say this, but put the call ratio yesterday was at the highest level uh it's been in uh it was the 5day RSI 5day RSI Omar to my to to give me a little credit. Okay.
No, not for four weeks. I've been saying it for eight weeks. Let's or seven weeks. Let's let's let's be accurate with our numbers. By the way, look how well uh QQQ held on to here. This is very nice.
Wow. Look look at this range, guys. Look at this range overnight. Here's my levels for QQQ.
That's some pretty uh those are my levels. Watch the 735 level very closely today. Let me post this for you.
Yes, I'm and I'm going to keep saying it. Put to call ratio is only the high.
Hey, the put to call ratio is only at the lowest level it's been in history.
But nah, we're not overextended.
Uh here QQQ levels HD quality. Look, when you have 55% of stocks trading below the 200 day moving average, when you have the put to call ratio, look here, let me go to weekly. Hold on. Hold on.
No, I'll just go daily. Look at this.
Five years. Look at this.
Look at this. You're going to tell me it's not >> [laughter] >> Give us the truth. No one special. Says, "If you paid attention to the news, you'd know that of the 3,700 stocks traded in the first three months of Dow Jones posted on true social computer right after they got a big government contract." What does that have to do with anything? No one's special.
What does that have to do with anything?
Uh, I didn't say anything about Dell except that they they moved up a lot.
Um, [snorts] see that that's an overextended market.
The highest put to call ratio in in modern history. That's an overextended market with and take that into account with this. That's a crazy overextended market and it could stay overextended for quite some time. Uh, keep your eye on the 735 level on the QQQ. If we break it today, we are going a bit lower. Let's continue. Let's continue.
Four weeks. The guy's being too nice.
I've been saying it for like six to eight weeks now. Uh, let's continue.
Um, SMH. Let's do SMH.
By the way, um we have the most overextended price since since the great since the last crash according to news sources as well.
Okay, right there.
We are not in a good place right now, folks. We're not in a in a in a place where you should be going in buying stocks long-term investing. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. 6 months volatility.
Now, remember what I told you, get volatility 6 months out at these prices.
SMH levels, HD quality, and let's do Russell 2000.
I'll give you my stocks and I'm going to head to work IWM.
I don't want to get in trouble with with uh Clyde.
Look at Look at this. Look at the range overnight. Mama mia. Look at that.
29143. Be careful of that level.
Yeah. And and folks, if I I remember my job here is to help you make money, not to be right. I'll be the first person.
Like bonds, I told you I was wrong in the bond market. They went higher than I expected last night.
You can't really lie to yourself or anybody else when you're trading because uh the only one that's going to suffer is you. Levels HD quality. Be careful if we drop below 29143.
And uh small caps are weak today. Okay.
Small caps are not strong today.
All right.
Yeah. I want you guys to understand why.
Uh Scotty says, "Eventually we'll be right." And let me paraphrase. Remember when I when I said it? Nobody remember.
Exactly. Exactly, Scotty. Exactly. Yeah, we're way running out of that rubber band is like like that. Okay, now stocks for you guys to watch. Stocks for you guys to watch.
Short side. This is the first time I'm giving the stock to you guys, remember?
So, you better write it down because you know this is a shock. First time ever.
We've never talked about BSX to the short side before.
Schwab We we didn't talk about this yesterday, did we? Um roll.
Uh Billy, first time we're talking about Billy here, guys. First time. Take notes. PNR.
Probably mentioned the stock like 30 times already.
Yeah, he'll get a few gum a few gummies today.
Uh, your VIX option is up 38%. Really?
Hm. That's that's quite a quite a lot.
Uh, D. [sighs] Let's see here.
This is not healthy market action. DB uh D. Absolutely. Not at all. Not at all.
And again, my problem is is is we have we we have half of the market below the 200 day moving average while we're making all-time highs. Come on. You'd be insane to say it's a normal market.
Pod. First time I'm giving you guys this stock. Never gave you the stock before.
Not yesterday, not the day before. not the day before that. Um, UHS, that's a nice short.
CNA, it's a nice short.
CBRE, now that's this is actually the first time I'm giving you this stock, and I'm not kidding around. And Zillow, if I had a dollar for every time I've given you the stock, notice the trading action. Very listless. Very listless.
Just like the upside on the spy. This is what I'm talking about. Very listless but moving down which is good.
Um, let's continue. Let's continue.
No one's special. Do Do you have a problem with anything that I'm saying here?
I'm I'm serious. Like, is there Do you have a problem with anything I'm saying here? No one's special.
We got we we were at 22,800 two months ago. We got up to 103,000 subscribers in two months. What problem do you have with that? I don't understand.
Uh, all right. Let's look at the upside now.
NBIS.
NBIS. Nice long.
You know what?
I'm going to kick your ass out of here right now.
There we go. That's it. Now you're no one special because you're not even here. All right, let's uh APL. No, no. A S. Sandisk. Sorry, wrong ticker. SanDisk. SanDisk.
Everybody's a comedian in the morning.
SanDisk.
TSM.
TSM.
You're welcome.
Exactly. Everybody's an Everybody's an Einstein. Uh Morgan Stanley, DD Dog.
Exactly, Chill. I mean, like what what is it with you people?
DD dog.
That's an I still like this stock. DOG.
Um, CRDO. Oops, wrong ticker. CRDO.
This one right here. CRDO. Still holding up here.
SMTC.
I'm putting you in timeout. No one's special. All right.
Exactly. He He's fixated with Dell for some reason there. I'm not watching Dell. I don't remember anything about Dell. I don't care about Dell. My comment about Dell was that it moved 37% and that's a lot for a stock to move, a large cap stock to move, which is what I was telling you about yesterday about time spreads. Stop getting this fixation about Dell.
[laughter] Like what?
Like I don't I don't have any feelings towards Dell. I I don't I think I've talked about Dell for maybe 30 seconds this entire year.
A a [laughter] hell infected mushroom. No one special. I mean Jesus. No gummies for him. Alcoa. I still like Alcoa. I still like Cisco.
I still like Cisco.
I like Amazon.
I still like Amazon.
Um, I like Siri right now.
I like TD.
I I like this a lot actually. Let me circle that. That looks beautiful. And I like nu.
All right.
Thank you, Ron. I appreciate it. Yeah.
What is this with infected mushrooms and no one special? Like, what the hell?
Like, go somewhere else. Leave me the hell alone. All right, folks. If you if you uh [snorts] uh here's the video link for today's video. Uh here's the uh here's the um link for today's video. Here's the link for the Telegram channel.
Everybody's an Einstein here. Uh I don't know what his fixation with Dell is.
Like I don't I don't know what like I I mentioned Dell for a very specific reason for like 30 seconds. He's all over Dell.
Like go go go to go tell this to the Dell network or something. Here's customer service live.
like Dell Dell Dell.
Um, here is the here's the world premiere exclusive signup link.
There you guys go. Uh, exactly, Jeff. Yeah, that's true. That's a good point. Um, and uh, what was it? What is it? What else did I wanted to post?
Oh, VIP room today at noon. VIP room today at noon. Make sure to join the VIP room at noon.
And uh today today today today today is going to be the best VIP room ever. I promise you. And let me do Cam a solid.
Cam did me a solid by by reminding me uh of um of uh the Chinese casinos. Very very true. Very very very true. Yeah. I don't know what is with with with with Dell. I I I like Okay, good. Good for you with your Dell. I don't know.
Thank you guys. Thank you. Great discussion today except for uh uh some mushroom or whatever the hell he is.
Okay, guys. I got to get out of here.
Have a great day. Here is the link. Here is the link to this video if you missed it. And I apologize about no one special. I hope you guys have a great weekend. I cannot wait to see you at noon. I have a very special surprise for all of you and uh I'll talk to you guys later. Have a wonderful, wonderful day.
Again, I I wasn't trying to hurt anybody's feelings. I wasn't trying to get political. I'm just trying to be honest with you and give you guys a great u intro to what to expect from the market. All right, I'll talk to you guys later. Have a wonderful, wonderful day.
And I'll see you all in the VIP room where I've got something very special for all of you. Bye, folks. Have a great weekend. I had a really good time here and thank you, thank you, thank you for all the wonderful wishes for my dad.
He's doing better and he's going to be going home in a couple of hours. Bye everybody.
Dell uh people, subscribers, weird mushrooms and weird
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