The digital asset industry is experiencing a significant shift toward institutional adoption, with major financial institutions like JP Morgan, BlackRock, and Fidelity entering the space, which is driving increased M&A activity and regulatory developments. This institutional interest is creating new opportunities for retail investors through tokenized equities and pre-IPO markets, while also raising important questions about market access, regulatory frameworks, and the democratization of wealth creation opportunities.
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LIVE: HYPE ATH! AERO & WLD Ripping?! SpaceX Huge Move. Big M&A Guest Today Then 21Shares Joins
Added:[music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> We'll see you around the timeline.
Feels good to be back.
>> I think the Rollup is one of the [music] most premier media brands in crypto, and Andy and Robbie are great experts at everything they talk about, and it's my favorite [music] podcast.
>> Adding it to my library as we speak.
>> Potentially multi-chain deployments.
>> We are at Devconnect [music] day one here at the precious from space.
>> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> JP Morgan, BlackRock, DTCC, Fidelity, the entire thing was institutions. It's just It's next level. This industry is going to the next level. And guys, I I don't know what else to say.
I'm bullish.
>> HE SAID IT. HE FINALLY said it.
>> I'm so bullish.
>> And he's bullish. I'm bullish. We're bullish.
>> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> The Rollup [music] is headed to the top. If we're not already at the top, we're going to the top.
>> Rollup is my favorite. [music] >> From all walks of life, all over the world, all over this industry, come together for the Rollup.
>> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Sunrise, zoom out. Institutions aren't coming, they're simply here.
Pay attention to the major crypto, guys.
Get right, let's go.
>> [music] >> Welcome to The Nest. See you on the show.
>> Wow. Look at that.
>> Another morning last week in the books.
Tuesday, the day before Kevin O'Leary's first press conference. What do we expect?
>> Wow.
>> We were so over last week. The week before we were so back.
And now, I mean, we've never been more back than where we are right now.
>> We've never been more right here, right now, than we are as we speak.
>> Ladies and gentlemen, you're watching the Rollup live from the Tokenization Tower, The Nest, broadcasting from the future of finance, the financial capital of the world. Today is June 16th. We have a great show ahead. We've got Christian Lopez, and we've got Ellie from 21 shares for you all. As always, we're live in the tokenization tower we're powered by our friends by on chain infrastructure for asset management. Rob, how the [ __ ] are we feeling, brother?
>> Feeling good.
Feeling good. What a morning SpaceX.
Um So >> Last night >> SpaceX last night was absolutely I heard more about a gamma squeeze this time on SpaceX. We got options that are launching today.
Coinbase is launching tokenized equities, Aerodrome is flying. Back to SpaceX. Man, I think Elon was you know how 2 days ago the SpaceX IPO went live the news headlines everything Elon's a trillionaire. Well, overnight he made another half a trillion dollars. I saw he was a 1.5 trillionaire.
SpaceX is now more valuable than Microsoft.
>> Dude, he made Bill Gates' net worth in a single 4-hour candle.
>> He made Warren Buffett's entire career earnings in one trading session.
>> Everyone gets bullish and of course we dump this fun counter trading retail's emotions. Dude, are you watching the 1-minute time frame, buddy? We are we are up. We are up. This daily close on hype is going to be insane.
>> Yeah.
>> Like this daily close is going to be insane. All right guys, let's get into the topics the tower what we got for today. As always, welcome to the tower markets and weather live from New York City. We've got the managing director at Cohen & Company talking about a lot of the digital assets M&A's coming on the show and we've got 21 shares team head of global research in the tower as well.
As always, our topics are powered by our friends at Treasure. Use code roll up 10 to get your Treasure today.
The interns got new sounds. I'm an intern anymore. Our lead our lead man has got new sounds.
Guys, let's keep it rolling. Before we do, let me tell you about our friends at Frax, open, stable, borderless, building the future of finance on chain with stable coins and more. Ladies and gentlemen, what a show. What a show.
>> Yeah.
Uh I'm excited. Uh it's sunny, it's beautiful both in New York. Knicks are champions. Florida is buzzing as well.
Uh it's an exciting time to be alive in the market, levered up, and ready to go.
>> Unlevered in my own lane, 71° and sunny, beautiful day outside. Got my house key back. I was locked out of the house for a little while there. Had a crash at a friend's house last night. So, we're back.
>> Per lockout trade. That's literally the definition of a lockout trade.
>> Per lockout trade. This thing is locking out. Hyperliquid lockout rally is on. As always, our weather is powered by our friends at Relay. Use relay.link for your cross-chain swaps and more. It's a beautiful day to have a beautiful day, ladies and gentlemen.
Let's get into the markets. Before we do, let me tell you about our tokenized equities partner, Denali, building infrastructure for US tokenized equities, real-world stocks on chain.
Trade SPXCD on Hyperliquid spot right now. Your place to get actual equities on chain with full ownership and full rights.
Rob, this digital assets market pricing doesn't even do justice to what's happening in the markets.
>> No, it certainly doesn't. I mean, this is the last 24 hours presented by Osama, but obviously tons happening over the past week. We've got a big week this week. Not sure when the last time you thought about Jerome Powell was, but he is out. He is out. Kevin Warsh is going to be standing up in front of America and the world tomorrow. And we've got signing of a peace deal in Switzerland happening on Friday. Um these are the two things that I'm watching from a macro perspective. I'm going to kick it back over to you to tell us what is happening with respect to the technical analysis in the charts.
>> Um yeah, I mean, look, NEAR is holding up pretty well. Chainlink, Solana, Ethereum, Bitcoin all kind of got a small bounce, but yeah, down a little bit today.
I mean, Bitcoin kind of killed the rally this morning, pulled back quite a bit across the board, but holistically speaking, Bitcoin's still in a lot of trouble.
Like, this would be the place where we would have Bitcoin falter. Like, we're back up to the resistance of of the previous levels from that February to April range.
And if we were if we're truly just looking at a full bear market on Bitcoin, it's going to have a hard time breaking this. If if we can flip this level and get to the high 60s to 70s, there's a very, very strong chance we blow the lid off this thing a lot faster than people expect and trade up to the 90Ks.
Huge, huge opportunity for Bitcoin here.
We have to flip this level. We have to flip the high 60s and get into the low 70s and close a weekly up there.
Hopefully close the end of the month up there. And there's a high chance that people calling for 40s are going to have to wait for at least another couple months.
>> Yep.
But of course, upper down, you know, can't go wrong with that. There's a chance also that this is it. Yeah, of course. So Of course. Um you know, Ichimoku clouds and doji candles and cup and handles and whatnot, we're flipping resistance into support. Um >> We need a We need a big move here.
We need Bitcoin here.
>> From a fundamentals perspective, I am looking at this, you know, obviously, I the Iran war has been sort of like the pie in the sky thing. I think this deal is act And it was supposed to get signed over the weekend. Trump couldn't sign it because he was attending his UFC birthday party.
I think the one on Friday is actually going to get signed. And the reason why is because it's not very substantial. Like they're basically saying in this in this thing that they're proposing to sign on Friday in Switzerland that they're going to unlock some of the frozen Iranian funds beforehand. I think it's like $12 billion. But on and they would do that before Friday. Otherwise, there's an additional 24 billion that is still going to be locked and that is part of what they're going to negotiate after this deal on Friday. And so if the thing signs and closes on Friday, there's going to be another round of negotiations because that kicks off a 60-day ceasefire. It also kicks off negotiations where they're going to argue and negotiate more of these frozen funds and whether they're going to get unlocked. There's this 300 million or 300 billion dollar like remittance fund thing that's going to go back for reparations. That is still not part of that initial deal. That's going to get negotiated.
>> Yep.
>> And the nuclear contingency is still to be negotiated.
So all of this is still not really part of this initial deal. It still has to get negotiated, which is why I think they're going to sign this this initial one on Friday. That's going to kick off another round of negotiations and then we're going to get we're still going to have this war. We're still going to have negotiations, but the strait is going to be opened. Oil's going to come back down. The economy is going to heal a little bit. Gas is going to come down.
And I think the most bullish thing is that they actually put pen to paper and they do sign the thing and I think that's going to happen.
>> Yep. I love it. I love it. New type says Jito is my bet for hyper liquid on Solana. He's in Jito, baby. That thing's flying.
It's up like seven to like 70% off the lows or at least.
I mean more. I mean it's up it's up 50% since Thursday. So what a move there on Jito. I saw Ansem tweeting about that.
Obviously, we had them on the show. I think New type, you probably were on that show when we had Lucas on the co-founder. So, that was a fun one. Um yeah, I mean, look, Wall Street enters today near fresh highs. S&P pumping, Nasdaq up, oil pulling back quite a bit, SpaceX flying. Like, SpaceX is doing just insane things. I was sitting here in the office 8:00 p.m. last night.
And this is like the really big light bulb for like me and I think a lot of others again, right?
You have these moments where you're checking the price action for SpaceX and you're looking at Hyperliquid cuz it's 8:00 p.m.
And you're like, what is happening? And it was flying. Hit 230. Hit 230. So, as always, our markets are powered by our friends at Zalma. Visit zalma.org to learn more [screaming] about their privacy solutions. We've got a special privacy day on the show tomorrow for you guys.
We've got an insane lineup. Multicoin, Venice, Near, Zalma, uh who else?
>> Dark Wave >> billions of dollars >> Casey Ways >> huge >> Canton >> It'll be a fun one. Canton, huge show tomorrow. All right, guys, let's get into the news. Before we do, let me tell you about near.com, your home for building, discovering, and using AI-powered apps on chain. One account, no borders. Your financial life on chain. Visit near.com to learn more about what they're doing.
The thing about buying a flex watch is you really got to flex with it. So, the 10 to 15k Rolexes are a waste of money because everyone in your circle should have that amount of liquid to drop on a watch if they wanted to.
But, then above 25k, you end up with the same couple of models that everyone else has. They Plus, you start getting watches that are cooler than a Rolex.
But, if you're going to own an exotic and niche $35,000 watch, you have to get a few to rotate because otherwise, you're the guy who owns one really nice watch and wears it all the time.
Okay. So, now you're $100,000 into this just to flex on some dudes who don't even care about you.
If you live or die.
Just buy the Seiko, bro.
800,000 views for Charco. Let's give it up for Charco. What a post. What a post.
Charco, I got the Seiko, man. This is absolutely nothing. It is a beautiful little Johnny on me. And I agree, man.
Watches are silly. They're fun to invest in. Just buy the Seiko or buy the Richard Mille. I mean, anything else in between is kind of silly.
Buy the very low end or buy the Richard Mille. Why are you going to buy a $30,000 watch? It's going to hurt if somebody robs you. It's not going to do the job. You're going to be seen as douche.
Luxury goods often follow a paradox.
You know, the more they're signal, the more they're used to signal status, the less satisfying they become.
The end game of watches maybe isn't exclusivity.
It's owning something that you really like.
And that's what matters, Charco. Just buy the damn Seiko, bro.
>> Sounds like you really related to this one with your Seiko. I I don't have a Seiko, but um I'm a big fan. Charco's the man. Always comes out there with the bangers.
>> I agree.
>> Um Look, I tend to agree with the take as well. I like the look of a cool watch. I like uh the engineering of a cool watch.
Um the only nice watch I have, and it's not like a crazy cool brand. I'm honestly not even sure the brand, but I saw it in the Kith store in South Korea. It was like this Salvador Dali-like funky-looking one. I'm not even wearing it right now, but I like the look of it. It's like the NFT, right? Like, are you going to buy a dumb picture of an ape or a JPEG of something that you don't like, but it's used to signal status?
Probably not a good investment. Um I like the art. I like the watch.
>> Yeah.
You got to like what you got, you know what I mean? All right, let's move on to some to some serious stuff here.
Uh Newtype says really excited for JTX, Solana Perp Dex built with GTO.
Yeah, man. I think that is Solana's best chance at perps, and that's why GTO is being re-rated, and I don't think it has much of a chance against Hyperliquid. It's way too early, but it has a chance to have a really, really nice move and revive Solana's value proposition to the market.
>> So, um what we have up on the screen here is something that I've been talking about for quite a while, and it comes up every once in a while, but it really feels like now we have the SEC regime in the in the the regulatory uh position to make something happen.
Brian says that it's time to revisit the accredited investor laws in the US.
Um how convenient that he tweets this the day that they launched tokenized equities.
Companies are staying private longer.
This was also something that Hester Peirce talked about. Uh we haven't posted that episode as far as I understand, and so uh that is going to be coming out for you guys. I think you're really going to enjoy it.
>> Yeah, tell us about that, Raoul.
>> Well, I mean, she uh you know, talked about why it's important to build out uh equities uh on chain, partly because of what Brian's saying here is that companies are staying private longer.
And so, we talked about the incentives that are currently at play and how a lot of that appreciation in equities happens for private investors. And so, we either have to do two things, uh one of two things, either we're going to make uh companies incentivize to go public sooner so that the public retail audience can get upside to these uh American companies, or we're going to give um retail investors opportunities to access these markets pre-IPO. And there has to be a path in order for these uh the citizens of America to get exposure to these things. Uh the it it really feels as if the SEC is like got the retail investor uh at you know, it's it's got their best interests at heart.
>> they're like they care about the retail investor right now more than ever.
>> That's who they work for essentially.
They work for citizens of the US. Um and so it's a very similar approach. We didn't get into whether or not uh you know, the accredited investor laws might change, but the fact remains uh Hester Peirce's um uh her term at the SEC is coming to an end. Uh she's going to law school at Yale as a you know, financial securities laws and whatnot. Um and so you know, she's kind of you know, talking about the legacy that she's going to leave talking a lot about privacy and you know, kind of this innovation exemption that she thinks is going to lay the foundation for the regulatory regime to come. So uh very very very uh you know, just thoughtful conversation. She's a very very thoughtful person and I appreciate her spending some time with us on the show.
>> Yeah, it was great, man. Looking forward to dropping it. Um OG Killer says, "Why is HYIP pumping today?" I say because SpaceX IPO which or SpaceX volume last night was literally over a billion in 24-hour period. Like it was flying at 8:00 p.m.
>> Yep.
>> And it's like where where are you looking for that? You're looking at HYIP.
You know, there's a bajillion reason why an asset moves up. It's more buyers and sellers, but like my reasoning would be that. Um Dang LFG love Hester. J Shep just found you guys. Digging the media so far. Keep it up with the info, boys.
Welcome to the crew, man. Welcome to the crew. Let's give J Shep some love. First time [cheering] listener. Good [ __ ] man. Welcome.
SPX 6900 flip the stock market.
Alrighty, Rob. That's where we're at, huh?
>> [laughter] >> Yeah, I think >> SPX 6900 there is no chart.
>> Look, [laughter] I think Brian's got a point here bringing us back to reality. I do think that people retail investors should have access to these markets.
I think Ultimately, this is where we're headed and we can take some precautions to make sure that we get there safely. I I the SEC is going to put in place consumer protections. Brian talked about two possible routes. Uh um Replace the rule with something merit-based. This is the one that I like the most. A financial literary literacy test. Pass it and you're accredited. Having a qualification based on competency rather than your bank balance or income seems far more fair. You can picture, you know, someone who just inherited a zillion dollars but has no financial knowledge whatsoever. Why should they be able to go into this? Why are they any more qualified than the guy that has access to AI, does rigorous testing and educates himself or herself? They're obviously more more knowledgeable about these markets.
Path two is to remove the rule entirely.
Let consenting adults assess their own risk. This is a more libertarian view.
Disclosure requirements stay and fraud enforcement stays to punish bad actors.
But effectively like look, if you want to smoke a cigarette, you can smoke a cigarette. If you want to, you know, drink drink a drink, you can drink a drink. If you want to, you know, go 25x long some pre-IPO market, you know, go for it.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, this was like so Rob and I have this like venture fund, right? And it is literally in some Caribbean island. And that's because when we started it, we weren't able to do a lot of these deals with a US entity. And that was like 2023.
So it was like a while ago. But in that process we're now using that entity still and we don't really think we need to.
And so like that's just how much the American policy has shifted and now I agree Rob, I think this is going to change drastically and I think this is like the one of many changes that I think will really create a different more crypto-esque financial market in the future than what kind of currently exists. So I'm I'm I'm bullish and I'm with Brian on this and I think the fight over accredited investor rules is really a debate who gets access to wealth creation. And I think that should be you know, democratized for all. So, let's get into the next thing. Before we do, let me tell you about Infinify building DeFi infrastructure for simple access to on-chain yield, liquidity, capital allocation, higher yield, no leverage.
Visit infinify.xyz.
Shorting SPCX right now. Pray for me.
>> All prayers.
>> Prayers, brother. Prayers.
Love Murad. I also once fell for Murad's antics. Never again.
>> I don't know if I'd be shorting SpaceX right now.
>> SpaceX at 216.
>> look, it hit $3 trillion. Do I think it's a more valuable than Nvidia?
Probably not, but Nvidia isn't going to space. So, we'll see.
>> But it's the float, Rob. It's the float.
That's the question.
It's a It is a high FDV, low float shitcoin. And I saw the the creator of Kaido tweet. He was like, I think CT's going to out-trade retail on this one.
>> Look, I think there's going to come a point where this thing gets super ridiculous, and it probably comes as the other IPOs are coming online, which is going to happen over the next few months. I tend to trust good Alexander on this one who says the way to trade low float, high FDV shitcoins is to short them going into unlocks rather than long them.
>> Mhm.
>> That makes sense to me. It makes sense.
Like, this thing is catching a ton of a bid. It's going to go higher. I wouldn't really be trying to time the top, but I do think the way to do this is you got to look at where we're at relative to these unlocks because a whole lot of this float is coming online.
>> Have you spoken on Arrow yet? Interested in your opinion.
Um, and that is dystopian. Only those with money can get rich, but those with little means can't. WCF. I think that's what Brian's on, right, Rob? Like, Brian wants to open up the ability for wealth creation to all. And I think that's part of his character arc. And that's part of our view. That's why I mean, I dropped out of college. I didn't have any like I didn't have any like, you know, here's 100 grand, go start trading. I didn't have any like, you know, obviously, you know, our parents took care of us, but like wasn't, you know, it we we started all of this on our own and I think like people should be doing the same and thinking about their their investment career and whatever it is and you know, there's at the very least what you can ask for is a level playing field, right? And you're never going to have equally level playing field, but >> Look, I I think, you know, it is a relevant story actually because you got to think, well, the accredited investor laws are what they are. Why were we able to start when we did?
And we had to look at alternative solutions, right? We've told this story.
You were trading on BitMEX getting liquidated by Arthur Hayes. I was trading on Bittrex, right? Like, there were opportunities available to us, but this was the wild west. It was totally unregulated. And I think the SEC's looking at this and they're saying to themselves, "Hey, you know, people see the upside potential here. They want to get involved, especially when we have access to intelligence at our fingertips.
The SEC's in a position where they could just continue to leave this thing unregulated, but people would still look for it and they would get hurt.
But if they bring this under their purview and they bring these markets onshore and they regulate them, they actually have the opportunity to protect people more. So, I I think that is the mission of these accredited investor laws and I actually think that you're going to end up protecting more people by allowing them to trade because you're going to allow them to trade in a regulated environment. And anyone who wants to trade these things are going to go out, they're going to trade them anyway, whether it's regulated or unregulated. As a regulatory regime, you might as well bring them under the purview of your regulation so that they're done more carefully, more safely.
>> Yep, agreed.
Um, Rob, view on Aerodrome.
Uh, have you spoken to Aerodrome?
Interesting your opinion.
Um, and then we'll get into Jesse here.
>> Yeah. Well, look, Aerodrome is in a spectacular position. Um, they were the number one trading uh, protocol on Base. They completely dominated. And I think, you know, you can say what you want about Base. They had a little meme coin season, AI season. And I'm not so wrapped up in the value of uh, trading on Base itself. Obviously, they have market share. What I'm what I'm excited about from Aerodrome is that they proved that their Metadex model is the most efficient model at penetrating the market and driving so much adoption. And they were able to do that on Base. We know that they're going to come to Ethereum mainnet. Once they are on Ethereum mainnet, I am a technologist. I believe that um, liquidity and what will flow to the most efficient technology, most capital efficient place to trade these things. And I believe Aerodrome proved that they're the most capital efficient on Base. And they're going to go test that theory uh, on on Ethereum mainnet. And I think they're going to drive um, significant market share. The other thing that I think is happening here is that they are uh, expanding their RWA and their tokenized equity uh, >> Fast.
>> mechanism. And it's happening fast. And we saw what happened with Coinbase. And we know that because Aerodrome is massive on Base, they obviously are part of the Coinbase cabal. And so, Aerodrome is poised to capitalize the most from the recent Coinbase announcement that happened just today. I think Brian Armstrong is actually going to be speaking at around 3:00 p.m. today, so in about an hour and a half, talking more about the tokenized equity strategy. I expect Aerodrome to be a significant part of their tokenized equity strategy. Obviously, this is part of our Neo Finance thesis, stablecoin supercycle. You tokenize all of the assets, those assets end up in our most prominent and resilient DeFi protocols, and then you you re-rate these protocols because they're no longer just pricing liquidity for crypto-native tokens, they're pricing liquidity for the entirety of the financial market, and that is trillions and trillions and trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars. So, that is happening. The third piece of this is you know, you had I think it was it Standard Chartered, you know, give a 40x to uh you know, to Uniswap. Look, if they're giving a 40x to to Uniswap, and we believe that Aerodrome is going to eat into the market share that Uniswap has on Ethereum mainnet, and they're going to benefit from this Coinbase uh tokenized equities announcement, I believe that you have a an even higher potential multiple for Aerodrome. Right?
Because they already you know, Uniswap already has some market share. If you believe that Aerodrome is going to eat into that market share, I think there's an even higher multiple at stake. So, I think you have this three-headed monster. I think Ethereum in general is also starting to benefit, and you're starting to you know, see it maybe sweep up off the lows. So, the the rising tide of Ethereum is going to lift all DeFi protocol boats.
I think Aerodrome is going to penetrate into the DEX market share on Ethereum. I think you also have it proving out its Metadex market share. That is going to uh that is going to work on Ethereum, in my opinion. And then you have the tokenized equities supercycle that is going to be driven by Coinbase and and the like. I think this is just a cascade of tailwinds around Aerodrome. So, I'm I I have a I have a I have a position, and I'm bullish.
>> I would just throw in there that like, I mean, the chart looks insane. Uh we're breaking above 50 cents right now. I mean, this is a massive massive bottoming formation putting in since since February of '26. So, it's been 5 months or so, 4 months just kind of chopping around at these lows. If we take out 55 cents with a strong weekly close, guys, this thing could send all the way to a dollar 25.
>> The only other thing I'll I'll say about Aerodrome, and I I think that they have, you know, more than just the Met ad X launching on Ethereum. They have, you know, this predictive allocation stuff, which is which is really really compelling.
Their ecosystem is so deep. And I think this is one of the things that early DeFi protocols on Ethereum back in DeFi summer 2020, 2021, like I don't I don't know if it's it's fair to draw the comparison, but like Curve is probably the best comparison.
And then like you've got Ohm and Wonderland and Time and like all of these crazy things.
The The thing is that like there is a really really deep rabbit hole to get into rather than just buying and holding the asset. And you can certainly buy and hold the asset, and frankly, that's all I'm doing right now because, you know, I want someone from Aerodrome to come on, and you just had Alex in the tokenization tower, but there's a ton of education to be done around the Aerodrome ecosystem because you've got vE AERO, and Aerodrome is passing back I don't know if it's 100% of the value from the liquidity on its protocol, but it's passing back a lot of the decentralized exchange revenue that they're generating.
Uh and they're generating a lot. So, I think it's millions of dollars that they're passing back to the token holder on a recurring basis.
Um and you get that by holding the token, but you can really earn quite a bit more by doing some fun strategies with vE AERO. I'm not knowledgeable enough to really talk about what the best strategies are, but I would implore everyone to go educate themselves, learn about how to deploy their AERO in the most efficient way possible. Um it looks like I'm up here solo. So, I could keep ranting about Airdrop. We're going to get our next guest in the studio very, very soon. Why don't we kick it over for our next tweet?
Um we're going to get that going uh because there's quite a bit happening in the AI world as well. And so, let's hear from our friend Capital Flows on how to think about the fundamentals behind these semiconductor stocks. This is another cohort of assets that are doing quite well on Hyperliquid.
Obviously, SpaceX caught a hell of a bid on Hyperliquid and the price discovery was extremely relevant. Billion dollars in volume over the last 24 hours. Let's go ahead and play this uh Capital Flows video and see what's happening with these semiconductors.
>> Now, notice here is a chart of the semiconductors of the S&P 500, but not just that, but it's also their earnings expectations in blue right here. Notice that earnings expectations have actually been rising during this entire time of the equity melt-up of in the semi space.
Now, just think about how if you don't know this data point right here, then you might think that this is like a 2000 um equity bubble environment. You might think, "Oh, well, this is just an equity market melt-up. These These companies are non-profitable. They're never going to do anything. They can't do anything."
Then uh and and saying, "Okay, we're going to be at a market top soon."
If you just have this one data point right here and understand it, immediately you now have a view that says, "Okay, you know what? This is not like 2000 because there's actually underlying earnings that would justify and provide insight around the valuation component of markets. Now, there are maybe some elements of continuity, but there's still elements of discontinuity and this goes back to the entire IPO of SpaceX and how everyone got super bearish up into the IPO of SpaceX and they didn't ask what the underlying mechanics were.
>> Yeah.
Well, uh um great clip from uh from the the fellows over at Capital Flows. These guys know what they're talking about. Um and I think Capital Flows does a really good job of harmonizing between technical analysis and fundamental analysis. You know, he's he's sort of drawing comparisons back to the 2000 2001, you know, dot-com bubble. And and he's talking about if you're only looking at the stock price, right? And you're just looking at the price on a chart. Um and you're looking at that in a vacuum, you might think, "Oh my gosh, this thing is going parabolic. How much longer can get this go up? It must come down at some point." Um however, if you tie in some of the fundamental analysis here and you look at, you know, some of the financials behind these companies, you'll realize that earnings are going up as well. And I think that is an important fundamental component to the way that we're valuing the these these companies, these stocks, and this applies to tickers as well. Doesn't just apply to semiconductor stocks, but it also applies to AI, and it applies to um it applies to tokens. And so, if we're looking at this, don't just look at the price. Look at the fundamentals here. And you can look at Hyperliquid and Aerodrome for that matter as a great examples of this.
These guys are driving tons of revenue.
And so, the way to value these things is going to be price uh earnings multiples, right? You look at the stock price or the token price, you look at the earnings of that protocol or that company. How much more is their price relative to their earnings? If that multiple is expanding, then you got to be concerned about bubble or is this thing becoming overvalued, but you can actually have the stock going up or the token going up and the multiple compressing because the earnings are offsetting and outperforming the price.
And that is what I think you you want to look for because that is going to tell you whether or not we're becoming overvalued or undervalued. And you know, the most traditional of traditional investors will tell you the same thing.
They'll say, "Hey, you know, the same applies to the downside. If if you see a stock that's underperforming, but you see the the financials of this company, they're just making money hand over fist, but for some reason the ticker isn't going up." Well, that is going to signal to you that, you know, the market is just not really understanding or prices thing pricing this thing efficiently. And there's your opportunity, right? And I think, you know, Capital Flows is talking about this relative to semis.
Earnings on semiconductors are doing extremely well. And so, despite their rise, Capital Flows is arguing that these things aren't overvalued because their multiples haven't been expanding.
If anything, they've been compressing.
So, you got to really parse out the different things here. You've got the price itself, you've got the earnings, and you've got the multiple. And if you're looking at something's overvalued or undervalued, whether you should take a position, pay more attention to the multiple and whether that's expanding or contracting, and that is going to tell you whether this thing's overvalued or undervalued.
And the same Now that we have revenue in digital assets, the same goes for tokens.
Um All right, let's see what we've got coming up next.
Um we've got our friend in the tower.
Uh he is going to be coming very, very soon. Uh that is Christian Lopez. He's got a hard stop at 2:00, so we're going to get him up very, very soon.
Uh let's check in with Merkle one more.
Let's give a shout-out to LeFi before we check in with Merkle. LeFi is our uh liquidity and market orchestration partner. These guys are the market access for digital assets, universal liquidity engine. They can pull in uh liquidity from wherever you need. And I'm excited about the RWA strategy from these guys as well. Very similar to Aerodrome for all of these DeFi protocols. Remember, stablecoins get tokenized, RWAs get tokenized. All of a sudden, we have trillions of dollars on chain. Our DeFi protocols were going to need to reprice and re-rate for the expansion of these assets on chain. goes for infrastructure we're going to need to orchestrate and compose all the liquidity and all these assets.
Uh and then it also goes for all of the DeFi primitives and protocols that uh we have grown to know and love as well.
Uh Mert is saying this is absolutely insane. The UK now proposes scanning of all private content on user devices or jail uh for the executives of these device companies. We've heard uh from Pavel from uh Telegram, you know, he is fed up with these laws. I think the French French government was coming after him.
Okay, recall how the French already arrested Pavel earlier this year. Yep, exactly. Uh this is on a device level, meaning you cannot even use the phone freely unless you literally KYC. Does not matter which apps you use. On top of this, uh they will require another KYC submission on the app level to access certain apps. So, this would mandate both device level and app level surveillance. Guys, I am concerned about surveillance and censorship.
Had the UK ban social media for 16 and under year olds. Um no matter your perspective on whether you think this is going to be helpful or harmful for the mental health of our youth, I think doing this in such a way is going to be detrimental. I am of the view that parents should be the ones to implement this, not the government.
Don't like the government telling me what to do. If I have a kid, they're underage, I as a parent should be the one to tell them uh what they are allowed to do or not.
Once they are of age, they can decide for themselves, but the government should not be doing this.
Um same goes for uh uh device and app level. And when it comes to AI models, right? We saw the US government censor the Mythos Anthropic model. Uh that sent the market into a tizzy over the weekend. And so we're going to see a lot more from open-source models.
I mean, the censorship resistance, the price difference for only incremental, almost negligible deprecating, uh degrading of service from these open-source models, I think uh the US needs to get better at not letting the Chinese open-source models distill what is happening in the uh frontier US market.
This is still working itself out, but you know, we're we're going to see the censorship resistance in the US on our AI models and in the UK and in Europe on social media and on the app level and then obviously on the device level as well. We need to uh we need to uh solve these censorship issues. Guys, we've got our next guest live from the tokenization tower. Uh we are going to get him up with Andy. Uh this is going to be um Mr. Christian Lopez, uh uh who is very familiar with the DAT ecosystem in digital assets.
Uh guys, he's going to be in the tokenization tower for a great conversation. Don't go anywhere.
>> Going in.
70 >> Ladies and gentlemen, we are here to organization Tower with Christian Lopez.
Christian, welcome to the tower, man.
>> Thank you.
>> Not a bad view for the boys on a fine Tuesday.
>> This is amazing.
>> It's great to have you.
>> Uh well, thank you for having me. This is awesome awesome view. I I think >> it.
>> It looks fake.
>> Yeah, no. I mean, we do get asked if it's a green room, so thank you for joining us in the flesh here. You know, I I know you you have quite an quite the experience with your company um doing a lot of digital asset mergers and acquisitions. And this has been a a prominent theme throughout the bull market. And then also in the bearish phases, you you you kind of get this consolidation. And so, I wanted to start this conversation with a conversation that I had last week after uh Blockworks acquired Messari. And what the CEO of Blockworks told me was that in this current market, there is a lot of consolidation happening. And there are the consolidators, the ones acquiring, and the you know, effectively the consolidatees, the ones being acquired.
And you know, this is typical for a bear market. And then in the bull market, what you usually get is like a lot of kind of like tradfi institutional level clients or firms buying crypto companies. But we've seen less of that in the last 6 months and probably more of this kind of like internal acquisitions. How would you describe the state of M&A today? And what do you think about this kind of like current state of uh consolidation in the market as it pertains to you know, you know, giving yourself to M&A happening?
>> Yeah, no. Great question. And just to make my compliance team happy, you know, I I do have to say, you know, nothing I say here it should be considered financial advice. Everything I say is kind of my own my own opinion.
Um but yeah, I mean, listen, the the M&A landscape is really interesting. It's busy um on both like the tradfi side and the crypto native side, right? And what I'm actually seeing is like in in boardrooms and management team conversations of like the traditional financial institutions like your banks and your asset managers and your insurance companies, they're all having the live conversation of like, all right, what do we do with crypto? Like how do we incorporate crypto rails or crypto products into our entire workflow? Um because obviously it's a huge market. A lot of people have made a lot of money in crypto over the last several years.
So like how do we top that? And they haven't topped it because like crypto has had two big issues, right? Over the last whatever, several years. Um it is regulatory and distribution. The technology was never really the hard part. Not saying that it's easy, but you know, you get a couple of engineers at JP Morgan and they can put together a really nice digital asset product. As a matter of fact, >> Yeah.
>> they have uh a payment an internal payment tool called Connexus, >> Yeah.
>> which used to be called JPM coin that um at this point is transacting billions of dollars of intercompany and interbank payments that settle real time.
>> Yeah.
>> Right. So JPM is using crypto very, very live.
Um and so the hard part for crypto was was regulatory and distribution. The regulatory piece >> Yeah.
>> it's kind of figured out. We have genius, we have clarity.
>> Yeah.
>> So all of these big institutions with a lot of capital and guess what they also have? The distribution. They have millions of depositors or customers and clients that they can sell those products to. And now that the regulatory window is open, >> Yep.
>> they have the distro and the tech. Hey, we can just build it.
>> Yeah.
>> Um so they're in this what I'm calling like the build or buy mode.
>> Okay.
>> Um and I think you mentioned the CEO of Bakkt, Jason, right? Came on and said that there's the acquirers and the acquirees. That's that's definitely happening. Not just within crypto, by the way. It's happening within TradFi and crypto.
>> Yeah.
>> Right? Uh for example, Bullish acquired Equinix.
>> Mhm.
>> Um I'm not sure if you saw that transaction, but Bullish we know is kind of an institutional prime broker and trading shop.
Equiniti is one of the oldest and largest transfer agents in in traditional financial financial markets.
You know, these transfer agents are highly highly entrenched into the entire equity capital markets ecosystem, but it's a super antiquated business model. And I mean, I deal with them all the time. It's like processing paper, phone calls for validation and confirmation.
What is more ripe for disruption than that through blockchain?
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> Um, so yeah, that's happening very very actively.
>> Yeah. And and [clears throat] so when you're speaking to different kind of firms that are looking to to do these transactions in in acquiring companies in the space, we're kind of at that moment in the space where you're going to start to see more and more of this because, you know, people are going to try to catch up and as I said, build or buy. Um, what are some of the most highly sought after companies or sectors within the digital assets industry right now? What are some of the companies? Is it like data companies? Is it media companies? Is it Is it auditing? Is it services? Is it blockchain level? What are the primary targets for acquisitions from some of the largest financial firms in the world?
>> So, the biggest the single most sought after has really been the licensed companies. So, companies that have you know, broker-dealer licenses, that have DCM DCO licenses. So, DCM DCO that kind of that stands for the derivatives capital markets and FCM for futures.
We're seeing a lot of folks trying to dive into the you know, the what's the Polymarket and and Kalshi, these prediction markets. And those are technically derivative and futures markets. So, those licensed entities have had a you know a massive run-up recently and a lot of interest. Um and then the banking licenses.
>> Mhm.
>> Right? So, you've seen Kraken and and BitGo and Anchorage, etc. all get these OCC licenses so that they can actually take in deposits and offer cheap capital and cheap funding to for their clients.
Um [clears throat] the tech part, kind of mentioned it, not that exciting unless you have something really really unique.
>> Yeah.
>> For example, Bridge, right? Like Stripe acquired Bridge because they have they're highly entrenched within kind of the stablecoin ecosystem and that's somewhere where I think a lot of people are played. Um the other piece where I think you might see some interest is you know the exchanges, the crypto exchanges.
>> Mhm.
>> Um you know I think it's probably a little too early for that right now, but there are certainly conversations and I'm not going to say any names of larger type exchanges or brokers in the crypto space that are having conversations with the big firms that you know anybody here like would have heard of in order to make that acquisition.
>> Mhm. And those firms want to offer you know crypto trading and and these assets to to their clients and >> Correct.
>> yeah.
>> Correct.
>> Yeah. And and so in the in the lens of of this kind of Blockworks acquiring Messari conversation in the more of like the bearish period here cuz we see a lot of the TradFi firms coming in in the bull period and kind of FOMOing and just buying what you know you know to just stay up to date. But in this in this more like kind of depressed market for some of these businesses, you know we speak to a lot of like conferences >> Mhm.
>> and their sponsorship dollars are are coming down. You know truth be told it's not been like a 10x year for us. It's you know it's been a bit more steady. Um And and a lot of kind of companies go through these like phases here. Um Is the is the M&A market slowed down quite a bit in inside the industry, right? I Aside from Blockworks and Messari, you know in the last month or two I haven't really heard much. Um what's actually happening inside the industry as it pertains to acquisitions, or is it mostly just a lot of kind of like tradfi coming in and and looking to buy industry companies?
>> Yeah, I mean, listen, I I actually think that there's been more activity than people realize.
Um, right, so Kraken, for example, has been acquiring a bunch of different companies, not all crypto companies, by the way. And that's because they're diversifying their business base to be more than just crypto, which is the right thing to do.
Um I I kind of talk about this K-shaped economy within crypto, and people talk about the K-shaped economy that's going on right now, driven up primarily by like AI acceleration, for example, right? Where the top end of the K, you have a few people, and the bottom end of the K is everybody else.
>> Yeah.
>> Crypto, you know, is going through something very similar, where the winners are kind of at the very top, and there's fewer of those, right? So, the the folks that we're talking about, like Kraken, Coinbase, Circle, um, you know, some of these other stablecoin companies, and everybody else, right? Like these crypto companies and L1s >> Yeah.
>> that were competing, you know, against Ethereum and Solana, they're kind of dying off a bit, right? And the other thing is like there's a lot of these validators out there, these sequencers who, you know, they may be making 15, 20, 25 million dollars of revenue, but that's coming down because a lot of the you know, they charge on a basically an AUM basis.
>> Right.
>> AUMs are down, and then the bigger firms have started to realize, "Hey, actually putting up these validators is not that hard, right? Like you you you get a couple of servers, and you put them up, and you run some software, and boom, all of a sudden you're validating." So, what I'm kind of telling my clients now, like you're you're not getting any growth capital. VC is no longer funding you at your stage. They're either looking very, very early stage, or pre-IPO rounds, like the Kraken deal.
>> Sure.
>> Or they've completely pivoted a lot of crypto guys have like completely pivoted into AI.
>> Yeah, yeah, for sure.
>> Or robotics, right? So, we're missing that growth capital. And what what do you do at that stage, you know? And the answer is you either look for an exit whether that's M&A or whether that's going public via IPO or SPAC or whatever else to actually find liquidity. Because if you don't do something today, you're looking you and your shareholders are probably looking at a zero in three to five years time.
>> Yeah, interesting. You know, one of the notable SPAC or public offerings that that we've seen that, you know, for a team that we've talked about and covered a lot of Securitize, I think you've seen their recent SEC Z public initiative I I it's some form of a SPAC or some public vehicle. Um any any words there on on like what uh the why Securitize would choose that sort of route to go into this public vehicle?
Perhaps they weren't big enough to do an actual IPO or there was a specific way to to conduct this transaction and offering. Just like curious [snorts] because I know that they've been working on that for a while. You know, what what's your kind of take there?
>> Yeah, listen, the the SPAC product is a really interesting product. I mean, you know, we at Cohen we do a lot of like SPAC M&A. It's effectively just a reverse merger and another way for a company to access the public markets.
And the reason you typically do that is you have more certainty of execution.
You don't have to and not to get too technical here, but with traditional IPOs there's usually, you know, what we call the IPO queue where the large banks who are lead left book runners of these of these transactions, they kind of have a priority list of companies, right? And right now all the big banks are focused on SpaceX, Anthropic, Databricks, like these these mega IPOs. And if you're a, you know, mid-cap to small-cap company that wants to access the public the public markets, going via traditional IPO it's just going to take a lot longer and there's there's more risk that you won't actually go public. With a SPAC, you almost guarantee it. Of course, you have to go through the SEC review process and you you know, if you raise in a pipe, you go with investors.
Um, but it's a much more it's it's much more de-risked process to access in the public markets. And why do you access the public markets? Liquidity and being able to raise capital in order to help the business grow. So, that's, you know, and I'm I know the Security Ties team fairly well. You know, Carlos and I go back a few years now. Um, and the reason that they went public is really because of, "Hey, let's go, you know, put Security Ties on the map, become a publicly traded company, have this, you know, validation of the markets, get some growth capital, and, you know, help tokenize the world," which is kind of their, you know, their play.
>> On this IPO talk, man, can't help but to talk about SpaceX here.
Um, in in the kind of like crypto perspective was um, on the on the on the IPO pricing, right? And so, Hyperliquid had a IPO pre-IPO market for SpaceX that was much closer and pretty much nailed the exact launch price, whereas on the buy side, the price that Elon, you know, and the and the SpaceX team had with the large banks was $135.
This thing launched at 165, 171-ish. I think I think it was closer to 171.
Hyperliquid had kind of nailed it like perfectly and was is has become a barometer for pre-IPO pricing.
How How much do you think the large banks will actually mold their but like because if basically, they made a lot of money on that. Banks did because they set a really low price and obviously, it launched quite higher. It was way oversubscribed. So, how much do you think these on-chain pre-IPO markets, specifically on Hyperliquid, could affect uh, pricing of IPOs in the future? Like, do you think there's a world where um, entrepreneurs, CEOs of these large companies, could actually point to some on-chain pre-IPO markets with decent amount of trading volume and be like, look to the banks and say, "Hey, like, this is where it's actually trading with people who are trading and putting up that their capital. The the you're quoting us is far too low. You know, we we need to meet somewhere in in in in the middle so we're not just losing, you know, an extra $20 billion of our capital because you guys are giving us a really low price so you guys can maximize your, you know, investors returns and your returns. Do you think that's a feasible outcome from your, you know, viewpoint of of how this works or is that just kind of like fool's theory?
>> No, I think it's well, first of all, I think Hyperliquid is a really interesting marketplace to find the right pricing because it's the deepest, you know, on-chain liquidity market and they're adding real-world assets on top of, you know, the perps that they do for crypto. Now, you know, there's the S&P, there's Nasdaq, there's oil futures, right? And of course there's these pre-IPO deals.
Cerebras, for example, was on there a few a few weeks ago. They nailed the pricing for Cerebras. They're doing the same thing for SpaceX. I just want to clarify, right? Like banks don't necessarily make money on the difference between the IPO price, right? The 135 that they were going out at, and then whatever it actually lists at, which was like 165 or 170. Banks aren't necessarily they're not making the spread between that. Banks make money on the total capital raised as part of the deal and I think they raised like you know, 75 80 billion dollars, which by the way, you nailed it. They made a lot of money, but I just want to make sure that the listeners know it's not on that spread.
>> But then somebody's making the money.
It's the it's the IPO investors who are making that money.
>> The IPO investors, once they resell in the market, yes, they will do that. But it's not it's the investors that come into that deal.
>> Isn't SpaceX theoretically [clears throat] like not raising at a high enough like like they could have raised that capital at a higher price to sell less equity to get that capital?
>> Totally, right? But they the initial That's right. The initial investors that came in to underwrite the deal, they said, "Hey, well, we're willing to clear the price at is 135."
>> Right. Okay.
>> And so then afterwards, it started trading in the secondary market, right?
On on, you know, on the exchanges where people can buy it on Robinhood and eToro or whatever.
>> Yeah.
>> Um and people have driven the price up.
>> Right.
>> Um it's just it has got that much demand >> Right.
>> um that in the secondary market people are moving the price up.
>> Right.
>> But okay, so then then it would be the investors who would be trying to set this buy-side price of 135 >> Yeah.
>> because they know that it's way over subscribed and that's probably a good price. But then it would be it would be who whoever within the SpaceX team who's handling this, CFO or whatever, pointing to something like Hyperliquid and being like, "Well, guys, like we're trading at 175 right now with $50 of volume in the last 24 hours. I know that's obviously, you know, peanuts compared to what this thing's going to trade day one, but, you know, maybe there's a there's a way that we can get this thing up."
>> Yeah. I mean, I don't think we're there yet.
>> But like, I think Hyperliquid is becoming more of a legitimate um venue >> Yeah.
>> for liquidity. And I do see a world where, you know, probably pretty soon issuers, meaning companies like SpaceX, are going to are going to come and say, "Hey, listen, we're trading at like, whatever, 30% to this IPO price on Hyperliquid.
>> Yeah.
>> I think we have room to to to move it up.
>> To negotiate.
>> it's all based off of the investors.
Like, the bank's job is to maximize the IPO price.
>> Right.
>> Right? So, that 135 clearing price, if they could have gone higher, they would have, >> Right.
>> right?
the long-only guys, the big, you know, >> It's like Jane Street and these types.
>> Yeah, Jane Street definitely participates, but even like the more fundamental investors, like Fidelity >> Got you.
>> and BlackRock >> Got you.
>> and T. Rowe Price, right? Who come in and underwrite these deals.
>> Yeah.
>> Now, I don't know, like I didn't take a look at the book. I don't know if those names got in there.
>> Right, right.
>> Just illustratively speaking, >> Right.
>> they're the ones that really clear the price.
>> Right. Okay. And those guys are not going to be too happy if this little dinky crypto exchange is is is [laughter] killing their profit margins.
>> Yeah, I mean, some of them some of them, like the long-onlys, they'll hold on to the to the stock, right? So, they're not necessarily flipping.
>> Right.
>> But for sure there's IPO investors that go in, you know, they underwrite the deal and then they'll get out of it within 6 months.
>> Yeah. And what what did you think about the way that SpaceX launched people or in the cryptoverse calling it the high FDV low float shitcoin playbook?
[laughter] The couple percent float on the stock, things trading at like three to four trillion dollar fully diluted market >> Yeah, it's like 4% of the float.
>> But 4% of the float is tradeable. We got this 30% rip overnight. Now we I don't know what what what we were doing.
>> of Cursive, right? I think somebody got wind that they were going to announce the Cursive deal. Did you see that?
>> Really? Okay, I didn't see that.
>> know. I don't know if like listen, I'm just speculating here.
But like why would why would SpaceX rip 20% overnight and then the next morning you have this announcement that they're acquiring, you know, Cursive.
>> So things trading at 213.
Um it I was sitting in the office here last night. It was 8:00 p.m. And there was only one guy left here, and we were just watching this thing on Hyperliquid, and we were like, "Holy shit."
>> Yeah. Did you buy?
>> Like 230. No, I I I stayed away. I mean, I my my bull my expression of bullishness on these is just holding specific crypto assets that are powering this trading, Hyperliquid, Lighter, etc. etc. Um and so yeah, just to they changed the rules for SpaceX specifically, and then they come out [snorts] and launch with this like very low float kind of shenanigans. And I saw a post that was like, you know, I think CT is going to out-trade out-trade retail on this cuz they're just used to trading stuff like this, right? And so yeah, just broad strokes takes on on the way that they launched it, was it is, you know, is Open Interest and Entropic going to see the success in the first couple days and be like, "Well, we want to launch, you know, that way as well."
Uh the rule changes just generally like for the sake of the health of the markets for retail investors, for the IPO investors, you know, what happened here?
>> Yeah, I mean, lots of different thoughts here, and I wasn't I wasn't on the deal, so I don't know the exact mechanics, right? But from the outside looking in and having done IPOs and SPACs, I understand how this how this stuff works. You know, first of all, you got to realize they went out at a was a 1.75 or 2 trillion dollar valuation. So, even 4% of the float is a massive massive amount of shares and volume that's traded. Right? So, like if you are the issuer and the banks advising this and the exchanges, right, and the marketplaces, you got you can't you don't go to you know, 2 trillion dollar companies say, "Hey, let's float 20%."
Because that's going to suck up so much liquidity >> Yeah.
>> from everything else that it could potentially cause a cascade that is unintentional.
>> Which people were saying was going to happen.
>> Right. And wait, and and listen, what was it? A week and a half ago, 2 weeks ago, we saw the a drawdown in in the markets, right? A lot of it was like the AI companies that were running up, the supply chain bottlenecks, etc. You know, they dipped 15, 20%. Nasdaq was down 3, 4, 5%. People were saying there's a few reasons for this, like the Iran the Iran war was starting to kick up again. And then also SpaceX is coming up.
>> Yeah.
>> And investors are prepping to be you know, so they're selling some of their positions in order to do that. Now, imagine if they floated more than 4%.
What would have been the outcome of, you know, people selling to buy the stock?
Could have been even worse. So, like that's one thing that you have to consider. Um but like you make a valid point. I'm actually, you know, I'd probably spend an ungodly amount of time on on X. And it's funny that I'm seeing a lot of like these of crypto Twitter talking about, you know, SpaceX and moving more into tradfi >> 100%.
>> because of like hyperliquid and lighter and like these perps that are on RWAs, but also cuz like there's like nothing's happening in crypto, right?
>> I mean, this is the biggest IPO in human history. I mean, how could you not you know >> I saw so I don't know, I forget who it was, but I saw someone post like the unlock schedule >> Yeah, yeah. Tell us about it.
>> of SpaceX. I don't I don't remember it, but like it just you know, all these IPOs and DESPACs, right? And companies that go public, their insiders have lockups.
>> Yeah.
>> And that's where the crypto got the idea. Like I don't know, like if people are crypto native and really didn't deal with, you know, traditional equity capital markets, that that's not like a crypto revolutionary idea. That was borrowed from equity capital markets.
Why? Because, you know, if people list the token or the stock and you sell right away, you don't have the liquidity there and it's going to, you know, rug pull using CT, you know, crypto language.
>> going to happen this time is it's going to just have the slower rug pull in the future cuz all the float's going to come out.
>> It's very, very typical. Like if you if you follow all of the IPOs, >> Yeah.
>> especially recently when where most of the valuation appreciation comes in the private markets, >> Right.
>> right? Like the like the the Facebooks and the Goog- What I'm probably not Google, actually. Google was still in the day when >> and and Open AI and all of these, yeah, yeah.
>> recent companies that went public, they went public at kind of the highest valuation and then 6 months later, you're going to see a drop in the price.
Right, why? A lot of that is the unlock schedule that tends to happen 6 months >> Depends. It's it's negotiated, but the standard is 6 months.
>> 6 months and then you get like a like a 6-month cliff and then it's typically fully unlocked or or majority unlocked for >> for a lot of people, but then if you're an insider, there's other rules around insiders. Like if you hold whatever X percent, it's like 5 to 10% of the position, then you have to, you know, you can't just sell all your shares. You have to disclose it. There's a lot of regulation around that.
>> Of course, yeah, yeah.
So, SpaceX has a very low float. It has a still an incredibly high market cap for an asset, but, you know, in the total terms of its fully diluted market cap or full >> but what is that? $800 billion or something like that of float? Like >> No, I'm no, it's not even that. It's significantly less. It's um it's only like a $100 billion asset right now.
>> Oh, oh, so it's like eight four 4% of of 2 trillion, so 80 billion.
>> Yeah, 4%. Yeah, exactly.
>> Right. But that's still, I mean like 80 billion is a very big company.
>> For sure, but it's [laughter] you know, it's SpaceX. It's like but yes, but but the point is like the you know, Elon Elon's illiquid net worth went up entire Warren Buffett's entire career earnings in one 4-hour candle.
>> Yeah, I saw some funny memes like about Warren Buffett just watch you know, his slow accumulation and appreciation just get run by >> One 4-hour candle on hyper-liquidity at 8:00 p.m. last night and I'm sitting in this office looking out at the skyline wondering what the hell where hell went wrong.
>> It listen, it just as easily as it went one way, we know in crypto it low flow and not a lot I mean, there's going to be a lot of liquidity here, but it can go easily the other way. And part of the reason why they changed the rules, I don't know, speculating here, but being able to include them in the index, that forces natural buyers like one right?
Yeah, for I mean I don't know if it's day one, but like pretty quickly, you're talking about 401(k)s, pension funds, 503 whatever 5 What is it? The the student >> Incredible capitalism.
>> [clears throat] >> Your your your mom and pop are buying low flow high FDV SpaceX IPO without even having an option.
>> Yeah, but I'm you know, and on on the one hand, yes, but on the other hand, you know, depends on your view on Elon.
What he's doing in my view is incredible, right? He's like going I'm saying with SpaceX. Now, I'm not talking about the dynamics of the of the you know, what they did with their IPO. Um but expanding the frontier of human civilization.
Uh trying to capture solar energy to to minimize our resource use on Earth and whatever make intelligence as affordable as possible. Yeah, now there's yeah, good.
>> Do you see a Tesla SpaceX merger coming to fruition and like from your experience you know, dealing with M&A, what would that even look like?
>> It'd be a mega M&A.
>> Mega mega.
>> But like I don't know. I I'm not as I'm not I don't follow Tesla as much. Um but yeah, there's there's income why wouldn't he? You know?
>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean SpaceX is dramatically larger than Tesla now, if I'm not mistaken, right? Like massively larger. Like it's it's pushing on Nvidia's valuation. I mean it's still got a ways to go, but >> we're it's fourth largest company.
>> Insane.
>> As of this morning.
>> Yeah. What is all this I mean I I just can't help but think all of this excitement and and just hype I mean you this has to come back to Bitcoin in some in some shape or form.
>> Oh man.
>> Like >> [clears throat] >> I mean come on. We got a $2.5 trillion asset trading like a a newly launched shitcoin on high volume last night and Bitcoin's just kind of like >> Yeah.
>> diddling around.
>> Yeah, listen I mean you you like to think that Bitcoin isn't going through its four-year cycles.
>> Yeah.
>> But it kind of is. Like if you're tracking it, it kind of is and whether that's you know, because the crypto investors just make it happen or whether that's just the reality of like the I don't know. Like if they're making that happen or if it just happens.
But I think we're probably seeing a bottom or close to a bottom right now.
You know, liquidity is in the more interesting asset classes right now.
SpaceX, Anthropic, AI and you know, CPUs, GPUs like all the Whatever like it's Intel yeah, the semiconductors, AMD, Micron. Everything's blowing up. All that is being drawn away from crypto.
It's being drawn away from a lot of different asset classes. Yeah, once people sell out of their positions, make their profit, where are they going to go?
>> Yeah.
>> Right? And I'm a listen, I'm a I'm a I'm a Bitcoiner through and through, always have been and I think everybody should own a little bit of Bitcoin.
I think ultimately, you know, companies will start adding more Bitcoin to the balance sheet. Does SpaceX have like what is it >> A ton, yeah.
>> Like 8,000 or 18,000 or something like that?
>> Yeah. Christian man, what a what a conversation man. Thanks for your time.
I know you got to stop here, but incredible to hear about the just state of IPOs, M&A in crypto outside. Truly a wild week for SpaceX, for investors and in all these assets. So thanks for your time man.
>> Yeah, thanks for having me.
>> Appreciate you coming out.
>> Yeah, of course.
>> Guys, we'll be right >> back. Rob and I are going to talk markets, talk our thesis, talk about what's happening, what we're seeing out there. We're going to get Christian sorted and I'll be right back on. Don't go anywhere. We'll see you guys in the chat. I'll answer all your questions. I saw you guys in there. Much love. Be right back.
>> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Money, power, and >> [music] >> Money, power, and [music] >> [music] >> We get deep hot. We get deep. You know we get deep.
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>> [music] [music] [applause] >> Bitcoin bouncing Rob. Hi back at 74.6 74.8, ladies and gentlemen, PER looks ready to go. Yeah, that was pretty fun.
Christian was sick. He has a lot of IPO experience and a lot of takes on what's happening there, Rob.
Um NOC, I didn't get to ask this, does he see it likely that crypto projects networks will start consolidating and attempt to survive? Yes. I think just from the media landscape, you know, Rob and I have fielded more like, "Hey, you want to work together on this offer?" Or like, "Hey, like you want to do something together or sell an offer together?" More than we have ever in the bull.
Um and so, I wonder if bigger chains will ever buy up smaller chains. I mean, I think it's possible. It's kind of weird when you have like a chain though. Like, it's kind of hard to consolidate chains, I guess, but um Yeah, that was a that was sick. I mean, I just feel like my bull expression for SpaceX was long, full port, hype, and PER. And I just felt like, "Dude, I have Rob, I don't know. I feel like SpaceX would have been a layup." But obviously, you say that in hindsight, you know?
>> Yeah, of course. I mean, >> Like, it felt like a layup.
>> It's tough to to, you know, kind of look at it and I mean, who knows, man? Like, when whenever you have this thing that's looking like it's going to launch as one of the top companies to ever exist.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah, in hindsight, I mean, it was a layup. I guess you could have bought it at like 150. Now, it's at like 230, right? So, that's definitely a That's definitely some gains right there.
Um >> Yeah.
>> [snorts] >> I mean, it's at 212 right now. I'm going to pull it up. Look at this thing. I mean, there is just quite the move here on this thing, right? I mean, 212.
>> Yeah.
>> I mean, wow.
>> Pretty nuts.
>> I mean, just straight up only low float FD high FDV shitcoin launch. I mean, what do you expect?
>> [laughter] >> I mean, so what? So, what's the thesis here? Like, is the thesis like it's July now, 6 months from now you get some sort of market slow down, and the unlock is it really like something crazy like this? And then like this?
Is that really like the chart that we're about to see?
Like, are we really going to trade SpaceX at 400?
>> I don't know if SpaceX 400. I mean, the rest of the market would have to go ballistic. I think you also have this confluence of like the Iran war ending, um you know.
If we didn't get that, then markets in general wouldn't have the bullishness that they have now.
>> Yeah, I agree with that. It would have probably been like a sell of the IPO thing if that if we didn't get that news.
>> Yeah, exactly. It could have been.
Um and we also have the fact that SpaceX is going first, and then you have Anthropic and and the rest of them coming later.
>> I think that is big. I agree with that.
>> so I think as more of these come online, you know, it's going to have more and more liquidity overhang, whether it's the unlocks of SpaceX itself, or you have Anthropic and and OpenAI coming online. Either way, it's more supply.
So >> Somebody says, "How much are you investing in Elon and OS C elephant in the room? What happens all that value of Elon dot dot dot goes away?
To what extent are they investing in Elon versus the company?"
>> Who cares? Elon is the company. Like, you know, that's It's not like he's he's running a decentralized platform here.
Like, this guy's not Satoshi, you know?
Like, you're investing in Elon, and you know, people when they were investing in Apple were investing in Steve Jobs. This is how companies are run. So Man, that trip was sick.
>> Guys, I have to admit Rub, I almost got bear pilled right here.
I almost missed this. I almost missed this.
I almost missed this move, guys. I got to tell you, I almost Guys, so like we were talking about per, right? When we had Sheamus on the first time.
Let's see. What was that exact date?
What was that exact date that we had Sheamus on?
David Sheamus >> That Thursday, right?
That Friday? Yeah, it was uh It was that Thursday.
>> No, no, no. March 29th, 2026. First time we had Sheamus on.
March 29th.
>> Well, he came on virtually. I uh I >> No, he came in person.
>> No, no, he came on before that.
>> on at $5 per.
>> He came on before then, before per even launched. I chatted with him virtually when he was just finishing up the fund raise. We were talking about how he was going to deploy the funds. This was per before per even launched.
>> Wow.
So, Rob's talking to him over here.
>> [laughter] >> We Yeah, over there, over there. Let me Let me pull it up. So, Rob, you're talking to him over here.
Hold on, hold on, guys.
So, Rob's talking to him over there.
>> [laughter] >> I think it was in December, yeah.
>> And then we get Sheamus back on the show here, in the studio, March It was like the third week Second week of being in the studio.
$5 per.
And I'm in. I'm in at like five something, 4.8. I sell my coin.
Only like 20 grand worth. So, it's like a baby bag.
And things starts going And things starts starts you know, things starts going. I I get a little scared, but things goes Dude, and then right around here I'm just like I see Capital Flows. I find Capital Flows account. And I'm like, "Bro, this guy's saying this is biggest position." And I'm stuck in this uranium trade. And I'm like, "Fuck, dude. I cannot be stuck in this uranium trade."
And then so I go full port. Full port here and bro, in like a matter of days were where where do we even go? I mean, we just go I mean, it wasn't even a real move. It was like it was like unreal. It was a 60% move.
>> [snorts] [cheering] >> So, I'm like I'm like off my ass.
Like the company's burning down in flames in Telegram. Like Robbie's pissed.
>> He's like, "What? I did not full port."
>> Buddy, I'm I'm in hyper liquid spot.
>> And then, bro 34% drawdown.
Everything wiped. I mean, I'm still up like uh maybe 10%.
5% 5% And I'm like, "Bro, I am fried."
And so, I'm scared and so, I sell a little bit. I sell some more.
Hype's down to like 53 and then, something changes where I'm like, "Dude dude, mama did not raise no [ __ ] Like I am not missing this generational move to $100."
And so, we just re-full port back in.
Across the whole board, full port hype and per.
And I mean, Jenny Jenny pump again.
And what are we going to do this time?
We're just not going to sell right now because the dynamic is different this time. Should I have sold right here?
Yes. Yes. Clearly should have, Rob.
>> Unnecessarily, you could have just held all the way through. You didn't have to sell down there and rebuy back in.
>> But this? Yes, you're right. That was a mistake and I thank goodness I Thank goodness we got out of uranium, first of all. I mean >> Yeah, that's a good call.
>> Come on. Uranium's just I mean, do you want to see the uranium chart?
>> I don't think I do.
>> I mean, dude >> you're you're you're time Oh, we're retesting that.
>> We'll see what happens to this.
>> Resistance retest.
Broke down the wrong way. So guys, I had a fat bag of this and right right here [snorts] I just sold it. I was like, "I'm out. I can't take it anymore."
>> [laughter] >> Anyway.
>> Heard a lot about that position.
>> story.
Where do you think this trades, Rob, this week? I think it easily 80s.
I think it easily 80s, low 80s.
It's going into the 90s.
>> Hyper liquid looks like it's just it's written to $100. It's for gold.
>> Um I mean, it just looks it looks fantastic. I don't think that there's anything that's going to slow it down. I think we've got I like I mean, obviously, you're the technical analysis guy. I'm the fundamental analysis guy.
This is the balance that we've been playing out over the show.
And we've got two cataclysmic, like both to the positive or negative side, something's going to happen on Wednesday. Prepare yourself for volatility.
>> your take on that, Rob? Do you think I say no rate hike. I say nothing.
>> I mean, I that's >> I'm saying nothing.
>> Yeah. Obviously, it's going to be no rate hike and no rate cut. It's more >> Wait, obviously? I thought market was pricing in some cuts.
>> The cuts?
>> Or sorry, hikes.
>> They're pricing in hikes later in the year.
>> Okay, so we're not getting anything then.
>> No. It's 100% on Polymarket call sheet, no no change to the rates tomorrow.
The market was pricing in rate two rate hikes by the end of the year, sometime before December.
Now people are starting to come around to the idea after the Satrady article that Kevin Warsh is going to be a little bit more dovish than people had previously imagined. They were thinking that he was going to be this super hawkish >> Um >> no more assets on the balance sheet no more quantitative easing sort of Fed chairman. Now they're coming around to the idea that hey, he's actually going to be a bit more dovish.
>> Mhm.
>> It's really it it really depends what we're going to see on Wednesday. I think we could still get rate hikes. I do think that he's going to he's going to come in a little bit more dovish than people are realizing, but it's a total toss-up. I think people are really really neutral at this point.
But we're going to get some volatility.
Nevertheless.
>> Yeah.
>> And so um you know, I think now that we have this deal in place with Iran, we have the opportunity to look through inflation.
Previously, he would have had to been hawkish on inflation and at least signal that he might hike rates in order to squelch inflation. It's not really the case anymore. If we're if we have this deal and Iran war is coming to an end, we can look through the inflation that's already making its way to the supply chain. That is going to make its way through.
If we have no more war, then there's going to be no more upward pressures on inflation. So now we have downward word pressures on inflation. That's all he needs in order to be a little bit more dovish.
I think that's what we get.
If we can get by Wednesday, okay, then we're going to be okay. And then Friday, we're going to come around and I actually think that they're going to sign this deal on Friday. It's not going to be the ho-hum, you know, everything is jolly, we have world peace thing. There's going to be plenty more negotiations after, but I think we're actually going to sign this deal on Friday. And I think we're going to close the week on a positive note. And so if we can get by tomorrow positively, somewhat dovishly, then I think we're going to have some good momentum going into Friday. I think we're going to sign that deal on Friday and think we're going to have a ton of momentum heading into the weekend.
>> Dude, so check this out, Rob. Number of rate cuts in 2026. First of all, I agree. I think we're going to have I think this is going to be hike might hit 100 this week. Um number of rate cuts in 2026.
Market pricing 71% of zero cuts. Right?
Okay.
Next Fed rate hike 60% before July 2027, which would be this meeting.
>> How Does it Do we have a mark for how many No, that's July 2027.
>> Oh, yeah, you're right.
>> have a mark for how many hikes we expect?
>> So, first of all, Fed Fed Fed decision is going to be no no uh you know, no cut, no no raise.
How many How many Fed or how many Fed rate changes?
>> Um >> I don't see it.
>> All right. What When is it saying the next Fed rate hike before '27? That one That one just under?
>> Um Sorry. Which one?
>> You were just there.
The one on the top right. Next Fed rate >> rate hike before July 2027, 60%.
>> Is that Are those the only two options before 2027 and before July 2027?
>> Yeah, they're way zoomed out and there's there's no >> the end of 2026?
>> No. No. I I I need to find it.
What about closing soon?
Fed decision The These are all for tomorrow.
>> You want call sheet or probably market?
>> Call sheet probably market wasn't loading.
>> Yeah, let's see.
>> Sort by volume. Number of rate cuts in 2026 Here we go. Next Fed rate hike.
Oh, that's the same thing, though.
Before 2027, 30 He Here you go, Rob.
Next Fed rate hike before 2027, 35% chance.
>> I mean, the So, the So, markets are totally at at par. They're you're you're pricing no Fed rate hikes before the end of the year and no Fed cuts.
>> Yeah.
Which would be bullish. If we just I mean, if we just keep things the way that they are, if you truly think that, you know, rates are high enough to combat inflation, which, you know, the end of the war would help that. If the war ends, then we're Gucci.
>> Then inflation would probably come down and we wouldn't need to to raise any more rates. Then it is dependent upon what they do with the balance sheet.
Which we'll see.
>> Yeah.
>> Freedom guy says rate hike's not going to happen. That's fake news for the masses. Yeah, rate hikes are priced in for later this year, new type says.
>> Yeah, 36% for the be Fed rate hike by the end of the year in October.
Um September meeting.
Yeah, so so dude, this is so funny, man.
>> so 1% chance by the by tomorrow. We know that's not going to happen. 7% chance that they raise in the July meeting.
Yeah.
>> we smashing, bro? I I'm pulling up Kelsey. What What are we smashing for the meeting tomorrow?
Are we smashing anything? I I Let's >> you could take a look at the mention markets.
>> No, no, no. I don't want to do the mention markets. I don't want to I want to I want to hit something on the I guess is there anything to really hit?
Let's see, closing soon. How many dissenting votes?
That would be crazy if we got one. At 20%, that would be a big hit.
There's no point in betting on this.
There's no point really in betting on this.
This would be crazy, but impossible to know.
Okay, so how about this? 65% Rob for Let me pull it up for everybody.
Get it just more fitting in there. 65% for no change and zero dissents.
That sounds pretty probable. That'd be like the most boring, basic level. Or no change and over zero dissents.
I think you're What do you think?
>> No change and over zero per dissents? I think >> I say no change and zero dissents.
>> I think you're going to get a dissent.
>> You think?
>> Yeah, I do.
I think there's I think yeah. I think you're going to have like these hardline like alignment guys with Trump that are going to want to cut.
>> And >> Yeah, because I think Moran has been dissenting like every time while Powell was staying the same.
And so you got to think like okay, maybe he just goes along with Warsh because he's the new guy or he continues maintaining that they should cut just like he was doing with Powell.
I think it's more like I mean I don't know.
>> I think it's the it's the guy's first run.
Like >> everyone's just going to bandwagon with >> Give the guy a break. Like let him have it the first one. Don't be on his ass.
I'm going no dissents. I'm going 65%.
It's not the best odds.
I'm putting $100 on it.
100 bucks to win 147. Not really great odds, but I'm thinking they let the guy have it.
I'm thinking they let the guy have it.
I'm taking no dissents and no rate cuts.
I don't think they're coming after our boy Warsh and just trying to like wreck him.
I think they're trying to like ease him into the process, get him be part of the vibe. You know what I mean?
>> Polly Markets got zero dissents at 71%. So I think that's probably pretty good odds.
>> You're getting zero dissents at 71%, but is it also federal funds rate change no change?
Or is it just zero dissents?
>> that's priced in for sure. That it's just zero dissents. So >> So this was 67%.
>> Yeah.
>> Kashkari.
>> Yeah, cuz I mean you literally you're not buying anything with not a change.
Um >> Okay.
>> Yeah, man. I think that's where I think that's where we're at. I think inflation is chilling. I think they're going to come in. There was you know part [snorts] of this was in the Citrini article.
Right? This macro memo spin cycle. And so they talk about how um there is something to watch out for.
But you know, they walk through kind of the different different things here. The the number one thing that you're going to want to watch out for with Kevin Warsh is going to be whether or not Warsh says a certain word a word.
If Warsh says the word What are we watching? the word trimmed.
If Warsh says the word trimmed so the press conference matters more than the statement. The word to listen to for is trimmed. And so rather we think Warsh holds until something in his framework median and trimmed mean CPI with the willingness to underwrite deflationary technology trends screams higher and we don't see that is going into the near future. And so because we have this inflation kind of at a higher level but the idea is that it's going to come down due to the war.
If we can classify CPI meaning this consumer price index inflation as trimmed, it means that we've essentially neutered the high end of CPI. We're going to expect it to come down means he's going to be more dovish than previously thought.
>> I think he's going to be dovish.
I think he's coming out there like yo war's over. Trump's doing a great job of ending the war. Shout out to my guy Trump. He's the one who hired me.
Rate rates are staying the same. Things are looking better than expected.
Inflation's going to come down. Guys take it easy.
>> According to Citrini, our view is that Warsh will do absolutely nothing. The Fed will not hike rates nor will Warsh immediately push to shrink the balance sheet. In January when the nomination dropped, it was easy to fall into the consensus train of thought. Warsh was portrayed as the QE critic and hard money essayist, the man whose mere nomination knocked gold down 11% in a single session and put a bid on the dollar. Now that view seems stale to us.
Warsh spent his confirmation telling anyone who would listen that trimmed means look fine and that AI productivity is disinflationary. Loretta Mester expects his actual project to be assembling a consensus for lower rates across several meetings. The market has Warsh backwards. In fact, we suspect it has him backwards in both directions at once. Too hawkish on 2026, too structurally credible on everything after.
The STIR market has oscillated so quickly between hikes and cuts that it strikes us as likely that nobody has paused to think what a December hike actually looks like. Warsh would need to assemble a majority from a committee that just split eight to four. He would also need to This is why I think there's going to be a dissent is because there was significant divergence amongst the Fed governors just recently. He would also need to do it against his own published framework, against what would be five months of falling spot energy, against the president who installed him for the opposite purpose. Don't look at me, don't look at anybody Trump offered at him uh offered at the swearing in to an audience that did not entirely believe him. Rather, we think Warsh holds until something in his framework, median and trimmed CPI, with the willingness to underwrite deflationary technology trend screams higher and we don't see that is going to be in the near future. What we're watching is that in June 16-17, Warsh's first FOMC, the press conference matters more than the statement. The word to listen to listen for is trimmed anything. If he's looking for trimmed CPI, he's not going to do anything until CPI comes down and then he's going to cut uh in July 2nd. July 2nd is when June payrolls, the first report that can show the real income squeeze reaching hiring. Uh May strength for what it's worth was concentrated in restaurants and local government, which together supplied roughly 60% of the total.
That's a labor market coasting on services momentum, and momentum is what real wage compression eats first. So, if July 2nd comes and we have June payrolls not as strong, then real wage compression is getting eaten, and we're going to see that in the June 2nd payrolls.
Pretty neutral. Pretty neutral, if anything more dovish than previously thought.
>> I fumbled Arrow's short I fumbled Arrow short just now. Manual closed right at the top. Dipped just now, would have been in profit. I would recommend to zoom out, find yourself an entry, buy that damn thing, and sign off for a couple weeks rather than shorting the damn thing.
Um Rob, I think the key takeaway is that there's a high likelihood that Warsh is being overestimated entirely, and that he's really just a chill guy.
That was my takeaway. Was that he's really just a chill guy, and it's not going to be like rash decisions or rash statements on either side.
>> I think that's pretty pretty accurate.
Um I think there is going to be volatility. I think people are going to be reacting to the press conference. We know there's going to be no change to the rate itself, but I think people are going to be listening to whether or not he's going to shrink the balance sheet.
Um and we know that they're going to ask him that in the Q&A.
Whether he wants to shrink the balance sheet or not.
>> Damn, there's some people in HyperLiquid that are up that are up 3 million on SpaceX.
5x leverage long, entry at 164.
Oh.
$10 million position.
Oh.
Oh.
Oh, that's nasty, dude.
>> Well, so they must have is >> nasty. it's only a 3x leverage, so >> 5x >> 5x leverage?
So what they got?
>> Dude, this guy's down 356k, 2x leverage, shorted it at 197.
>> Dude, shorting is just How are you trying to short this thing right now?
Oh, yeah.
>> Wow.
This guy's up 800 bands on a 3x long on 165 entry.
Damn.
>> Um, when's our next guest coming in?
>> We got Ali from 21 Shares. He's going to talk to us about what's happening in hyperliquid with their ETF. He's uh Good. I don't like people shorting our assets. No offense, bro. Yeah, for real.
What do you mean? Like we're we're we're riding this together.
Also, guys, like just very simple stuff here. If assets are going to outperform, they will likely continue to outperform.
>> Power law.
>> Something simple just to continue to understand across all time frames.
>> Yeah, there's a reason they're outperforming.
And Andy, while you were setting up the uh the first in-person guest, we had a little conversation about um earnings and fundamentals and how you know, you could look at the the the chart ripping higher and think, "Oh my god, this thing is overvalued." But if you look underneath the hood and revenue is actually up 10x and the price is only up 2x and the multiple has actually compressed, then it's actually more undervalued even though the thing has gone up in price because their earnings have outpaced the appreciation of the stock. So Yeah, I mean, that and and that was capital flows making that point with respect to semiconductor stocks.
Um, I think the same thing can go for a lot of these AI stocks as more as we learn more about the revenue profiles.
Um, you know, >> Yeah.
>> there's an argument to be made that a lot of these revenues are just a, you know, big merry-go-round, but hyperliquid you can make the argument, too, if you have, you know, just just in rough numbers, let's say you have a, you know, you 5x the amount of hyper liquid revenue over some time frame, long time frame, and the price only 2x's, well, it's actually not at and you know, you see 2x and you think, oh, this thing is overvalued.
Well, it's not. The the fundamentals got 5x better, right? Look underneath the hood.
>> Time to go bigger or secretly trading, you could probably be working harder, taking more risk than you are right now.
Be the differentiator. That's my message to you guys. I'm going to get Alli set up here in the tower. We're going to take a little break and we're going to get him set up. We're going to talk hyper liquid ETFs and more. He's the head of global research at 21 shares, guys. Don't go anywhere. It's going to be a fun segment and let's go. I'll see you guys in just a second.
>> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> We get deeper.
We get deep.
You know we get deep.
You didn't think [music] we'd get deeper.
We get deep.
You know we get deep.
You didn't [music] think we'd get deeper.
>> Ladies and gentlemen, we are back in the Tokenization Tower with Elie, a friend of the show here. Elie, welcome back to the tower. Good to have you. Thanks for coming out.
>> Andy, thanks for having me. It's great to be here. What a day.
>> Great vibes. Hyperliquid all-time highs today as we record this on June 16th, a month after the ETF launch from 21 Shares. You guys were able to get that out quickly at the right time. Clearly, there was this pent-up institutional demand for Hyperliquid. I think the SpaceX trading last night actually really blew my mind because we saw I think about almost a billion or 1.2 billion dollars of 24-hour volume.
>> Yeah.
>> SpaceX trades from about 175 to 225 about 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. last night. The best place to trade that, to track that, was on Hyperliquid. I think that says a lot about the how far this product has came.
>> Yeah.
>> When you're going through the process of launching the ETF, you guys were one of the first, you and Bitwise, same time, same day, boom, live. How did you guys manage to get this out faster than all these other larger, quote-unquote, issuers? The Grayscales, the Blackrocks, the larger kind of issuers, if you will, kind of fell asleep at the wheel here.
What happened? Was it just you guys were in tune with what you think the market wanted? How How How were you guys able to kind of uh get that out there so quickly?
>> No, for sure. It's a great question. So, we actually launched the world's first Hyperliquid exchange-traded product in the European market last year in August of 2025. And we knew already that hyperliquid is a success story. It's a financial market story that investors really need to have exposure to. In the US, we've seen that there was pent-up demand for this and we actually launched the world's first hyperliquid ETF in the US markets a few days before Bitwise because we really wanted to make sure that the investors really have exposure to these incredible story that we've actually quite never seen before where essentially we are seeing investors around the world checking pre-IPO pre-IPO markets on a specific assets.
They're trading on you know financial markets such as commodities and stocks as well as equities and it's super interesting because at the end of the day hyperliquid is a for us a Google moment for you know after market close trading over the weekend and it shows again that this is a great product for the US markets.
>> Yeah, man. I mean it was it was the war in January and February. It was oil or actually sorry, it was gold and silver in January. It was the war in oil in February and March. Then it was the AI semiconductor crazy Micron Sandisk pumps in the last month or so.
And then now it's SpaceX. And so, you know, the story continues to be told and it's funny how these external events have become catalysts for hyperliquid in terms of volume, liquidity and attention. And you know, I think that the amount of people looking at the at the product to get an understanding of what's happening after hours it has probably significantly increased. When it comes to these catalysts, if you will, they're not necessarily catalysts for all of crypto, but they have been for hyperliquid. There's more coming Anthropic IPO, OpenAI IPO and just more of this kind of like AI trade happening. How do you think about the evolving volatile global macro as it pertains to being a catalyst for on-chain finance to really get its kind of feet back under itself and become a place for trading a lot of these kind of volatile moves.
>> Hyperliquid has really forced markets and traditional marketplaces such as the CME to actually launch also their own 24/7 markets for crypto trading when it comes to options and futures. And I do think that it has become the anchor for traditional finance to also pay attention to 24/7 trading, right? And Hyperliquid has really caught the attention not just for crypto aficionados like you and I, but also traditional finance players to trade on these places, right? Because at the end of the day, Hyperliquid really provides also the blockchain and the API for global liquidity so that marketplaces such as trade.xyz, but also eventually, I would say, traditional marketplaces could build on Hyperliquid eventually to provide 24/7 trading for multiple financial assets. And I do think that this is one of the most successful stories that we've seen in crypto because so far we've seen a K-shaped recovery in the markets where Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have been down year-to-date, but Hyperliquid increased by over 100% year-to-date. And I think these geopolitical events are really showing again that Hyperliquid has prepared for these moments and really captured the mind share from investors to be able to trade over over the weekend on multiple financial assets that they want to have exposure to.
>> Definitely. And when you're you know so you guys have a vast kind of set of Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum ETFs, the the European version of of these as well in the ETPs across a variety of different assets.
You know, you're speaking to investors, you're the global head of research, you're educating the market whether it be through an Umet email newsletters, through calls, through meetings in person. You're you know, you and Adrian and the team are speaking with large allocators, you know, in Europe, also here in New York, and generally you know, people understand Bitcoin.
They understand this digital gold. Some people own gold, some people don't. So, some people like it, some people don't.
Ethereum, you then start to get into like this like DCF, what is the fees, what is the like Okay, this is like a technology stock. How do I value this?
And you've got like this whole set of other kind of L1s and infrastructure companies.
>> Yeah.
>> I'm curious, when you've been explaining the value proposition of Hyperliquid to larger allocators, is is it Is there a lightbulb moment that happens that just makes sense to them compared to other assets when you speak to them?
How do they receive the pitch? And what is that kind of like lightbulb moment for them?
>> The It's a phenomenal question. The lightbulb moment for investors has really been the simplicity of the value proposition for Hyperliquid, uh being this around-the-clock exchange where any financial assets could be exposed to uh over the weekend and 24/7 is really powerful. Especially, I would say in this moment in time after the war in Iran started, we've seen really these aha moment or these eureka moment to really help investors to realize that this is a necessity. Investors wanted to hedge over the weekend out of necessity on Hyperliquid or any other, you know, similar marketplaces. And by the way, Hyperliquid is not even the world's first decentralized venue for all financial assets, right? We've seen examples of that in the past, whether it's EtherDelta if you're an OG in this space, right? Uh there was one of the largest marketplaces on Ethereum at the time in 2017. We've seen GMX and and the likes as well, uh like dYdX. So, Hyperliquid has really been able to build this end-to-end platform that is really simple to use for many investors. The interface looks very familiar to a TradingView interface, uh and that really helped investors to get the story really quickly. Um and also doesn't feel threatening. It feels like a benefit for them for their portfolios, especially after market close when we have heightened geopolitical conflicts. So, the simplicity in the power of the value proposition has really been, I would say, the higher moments for our asset allocators around the world and not just in the US, but also in the European markets as we saw it there last year.
>> Yeah. And then that's on like the bull case side. On the risk side and the kind of tail risks to this, you know, there's the regulatory side and there's the competition.
>> Of course.
>> So, right now Hyperliquid's directly competing with Lyra, Variation on the DeFi perp stack side, Binance, Bybit, and OKX on the centralized exchange side.
>> Coinbase.
>> And then and Coinbase, and then also, you know, looking now at the CME, Nasdaq, etc. You know, none of these players are going to go down easy, right? So, specifically on the competition risk, how do you explain to investors your thoughts on the competition on the competition risk for Hyperliquid?
>> The Hyperliquid uh protocol is a decentralized protocol, right? It's globally accessible. Think about it as the internet where essentially, of course, the Hyperliquid team has to comply with local jurisdictions where in the US, for example, US persons like you and I cannot access the platform uh for compliance reasons. But, when it comes to the competitive landscape, it's great news because investors can have exposure to multiple marketplaces to have access to financial assets 24/7, especially over the weekend out of necessity. But, I do think that what is misunderstood by many investors is that Hyperliquid is also an API for global liquidity. So, essentially, the blockchain itself can be used by over marketplaces, traditional finance, as well as broker-dealers to build on the marketplace of Hyperliquid with the infrastructure ready uh to go, right?
So, these are the things that is misunderstood. It really helps investors to see the benefit that this is not just an exchange, but the end-to-end platform, full stack, that really helps the investors to really get the fiber there is a bigger upside for that kind of protocol and and product in the marketplace. So, they don't rely on a layer one like Ethereum, Solana. They are their sovereign blockchain that really helps to understand that this is both a tech play but also a financial services play.
And that's why I like to call, you know, Hyperliquid is this, you know, fintech 2.0, which is basically financial services built on blockchain rails and not on legacy and opaque systems, right? That we actually have seen for the last 12 to 15 years.
>> So, then just to get a bit more concrete with it, what is your view on on the competition for from the centralized exchange side and from the larger trading venues in the world, NYSE, Nasdaq, etc. How do you Like these again, these guys are not going to go down easy. They're going to have the guns out. What's going to happen here?
>> So, I think we're going to see two scenarios. The main one is going to be um traditional marketplaces going head-to-head with Hyperliquid. And the CME took that route, right? Couple of weeks ago they launched, you know, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana futures and options over the weekend. The volume was quite considerable, like $50 million in volumes over over the weekend couple of weeks ago. But in the same timeframe over the weekend, Hyperliquid processed $9 in in volume in the same timeframe. So, I think it shows again that Hyperliquid is operating on a global scale except in the US. And that's route number one where traditional players are not going to be using the API of Hyperliquid to go head-to-head against them. And then the second route would be where essentially a great rising tide is lifting all boats, and you're going to see traditional players leveraging the marketplace and the API of Hyperliquid to the blockchain so that the investors will be able to use it 24/7. So, from a fee rate perspective, this is great because Hyperliquid can capture uh that uh that revenue from these traditional marketplaces building on top of it, and that's truly the upside. But, that's really risk number one when it comes to the competitive landscape. When you think about over risk, right? There are technological risk as well on these uh different blockchains. You've seen the rise of AI-enabled security uh settings, and that really shows again that the likes of Zcash where they were able to hire security researcher uh to then find out about the inflation bug. I do think that, you know, um technological risk is still very important uh to consider, and this is one of them that investors will need to mitigate. And that's why transparency around, you know, security audits would be key for multiple investors around the world to pay attention to that. And then the last one is the regulatory landscape, right? Right now, Hyperliquid is not available in the US markets, uh but I do think that because the CFTC is also working very closely with the the places that call sheet to allow perps uh in the US markets. Uh it shows again that there is a pathway for Hyperliquid also uh to come in as both a blockchain as well as uh an operating around-the-clock exchange uh to operate in the US. So, let's see about that, but it's still a question mark for Hyperliquid.
>> Yeah, I mean, it seems I mean, yesterday, I think the CFTC chairman uh Mike Selig was on TV talking about perps, right? Which is awesome to see.
>> Um huge huge. That screenshot and the SpaceX uh trading volume last night, I think, sent this thing to all-time highs. Um when it comes to, you know, thinking about what this this future of this on-chain finance world looks like, right? I think >> Yeah.
>> I think it's clear that we've broken out of the uh kind of like crypto-only landscape, right? There's 150 billion or so in TVL in DeFi. Total market cap of crypto assets, couple trillion, two and a half, three and a half trillion.
You know, but it's very clear that the total addressable market of what we're doing here is much larger in terms of the tokenized assets coming on chain.
And so, I'm starting to think about a couple of these platforms, Hyperliquid, Aerodrome, Uniswap, Aave, et ceteras, later as much more of like an under underlying layer of liquidity and of a product than of a front end. Like, I think the amount of people who are trading on Hyperliquid will continue to grow, but I think that the amount of people that will trade on Hyperliquid without knowing that they're trading on Hyperliquid directly via builder codes or the amount of people trading on Aerodrome via Coinbase's app will will dramatically increase without them actually going to the UX. And I think this provides like a much bigger picture because it's not like Hyperliquid and Aerodrome and Uniswap and Aave have to go out and get all the users to their platform. They just need to secure the right integrations with Revolut and Robinhood and Coinbase and, you know, all these, you know, platforms, Telegram, et cetera. And so, I'm starting to, you know, see more of this kind of come to fruition, and I'm curious how you see this playing out, your thoughts on like this under layer of Hyperliquid and of these trading applications on chain that kind of really permeating into these larger applications with more distribution, how you see that playing out, how quickly you may see that playing out, or what kind of nuances you would see in that.
>> Yeah, I I think there is a big nuance here where you're going to have players that wants to have the end-to-end, uh, I would say stack for themselves as, like for example, the Coinbase would want to own the entire marketplace plus also the blockchain. That's why they have Base plus the market place and the money transmitter licenses to operate in the US, broker-dealer licenses as well.
Uh, so, this is the Apple, I would say the Apple, uh, strategy, which is to have the end-to-end stack owned fully by the company. And then you're going to have others like Microsoft that would want to externalize the Androids and the operating systems of the world, uh, onto their product offerings. And I think the Microsoft route would basically make sense for the likes of Robinhood, for example, to build on Hyperliquid. Um we could see also uh the likes of others, especially in the traditional finance space, that do not want to basically build a blockchain uh you know, blockchain development team um internally. So, I do think that we're going to see two routes, either the Apple route end-to-end uh and owning the stack, and then the Microsoft route where you can basically uh to some extent externalize the operating system uh through uh over blockchain teams like Hyperliquid. Um but I do think there's going to be a nuance where I invest totally fine, but I do think that liquidity begets liquidity. So, traders and market makers are going to trade only where there is a significant amount of real liquidity uh for specific assets, whether it's oil, silver, and gold, or even like pre-IPO stocks, or even IPO stocks now like uh SpaceX. Um and I do think that if we're seeing billions of dollars in uh open interest on a daily basis and billions of dollars in volumes, the market makers are really going to pay attention to these marketplaces, and Hyperliquid is really owning that space right now. Uh but I do think that we're going to see more more and more players trying to get that market share from Hyperliquid.
>> Yeah.
You know, you uh put out a piece, I think, that said 21 shares, and you know, you personally think that Hyperliquid's fair value is $75.
>> Yeah.
>> We're here now. So, you know, what does that mean? Is it time to dump it all?
Like, what's the what, you know, has has anything materially changed in your thesis for the $75 hype um to a to think that this thing could trade, you know, at 100, 125 plus? What's What's materially changed in your thesis, or has it not?
>> So, the the time the the time around we published that thesis, we uh looked at Hyperliquid very closely for the last couple of years, and the price of Hyperliquid when we published that last couple of months was around 30 40 40 bucks.
Um and we thought at the time that, given the capture that Hyperliquid has been able to get from trade.xyz and other marketplaces building on top, was a great way to think about where Hyperliquid could be. But quite frankly, if Hyperliquid becomes the equivalent of Google for after market close price discovery, where you can find the price of gold and silver and other commodities in real time over the weekend, and that becomes the benchmark for that, the same way Google changed basically the search engine and user experience that we've experienced for the last 25 years on the internet, I do think that the the upside for Hyperliquid is incredibly high.
But I don't have a specific price target for you on on where this is going to be, but we're incredibly excited. We believe that Hyperliquid could become an asset that actually is valued over $500 billion in total market cap. I think that's really that the the upside for us. It shows that it could likely become the number two asset in crypto after Bitcoin. If it executes really well, if it's able to capture the market share in traditional perps, but also most importantly, if there are, you know, no existential bugs on the network that unfortunately will lose the trust of the users.
>> Yeah. Yeah, the Google of crypto, that's a great analogy.
>> Yeah, that's our Google moment. What do you think?
>> Yeah, I mean, I I I feel like SpaceX is a is a big one.
>> Right?
>> Yeah, huge one.
>> When when you look at the pre-IPO markets for SpaceX and where the were actually the assets traded, uh very close.
>> Yeah.
>> Accuracy rate was over 95% for Hyperliquid.
>> Yeah. Yeah, it's yeah, it's insane.
Yeah. No, I'm just I mean, I'm just it's just been a incredible run. I mean, I mean, it's hard not to be just excited about what is possible from the from the from the team, from what's happening on chain. You know, one thing I'm curious about is seeing spot equities be traded on Hyperliquid and and a deeper spot market book for non-crypto assets. Just curious like your thesis there. I mean, obviously there is large spot markets on chain already.
>> volume. Uniswap, Aerodrome, and then Solana is kind of dominating right now with a recent launch of a spot SPX market with Sunrise and Backpack.
Curious like how you think the spot market may develop there on Hyperliquid.
>> Yeah, I think it's going to be a tougher market and the reason is because the spot market is the second largest market structure in crypto and then the first one of course is futures, traditional futures, and then perps and then you put the spot markets.
User acquisition and user retention would be so important for Hyperliquid to win there.
It's possible eventually that you could see traditional neo banks leveraging the Hyperliquid platform to actually offer spot markets more specifically.
But I think on that side is going to be a tougher market for Hyperliquid to win.
And the reason is because there are so many options right now today and Hyperliquid really feels right now like a high frequency trading tool not for the moms and pops yet right when you look at the interface and how this is structured. So the upside would be if they were able to have people around around the space like you and I recommended Hyperliquid to buy Bitcoin or Ethereum, right?
And right now we've seen more and more people like talking about ETFs in case or even like just opening up a Kraken or Coinbase account to to buy spot.
So I do think on the spot market they really have to change the interface and the user acquisition strategy to attract the the average user. I think that would be incredibly important to expand the pie.
>> Yeah.
>> All right, just some closing thoughts here. I mean, you know, market structure as a whole has been pretty depressed for crypto while AI has ran. Obviously Hyperliquid's kind of in its own bull market right now.
>> Yeah.
>> When it comes to persisting through the broader bear, how do you think about the performance ability of Hyperliquid and hype the asset with a broader crypto bear. Let's say it continues on for a couple more months into the end of the summer or something. Typical four-year cycle would say October. How do you think about the mismatch in performance between hype and the broader crypto market? And how do you think it resolves?
>> I think one of the key catalysts that we haven't talked about actually in this in this episode is also prediction markets.
Hyperliquid is moving to prediction markets and it's one of the key essential tools that we've seen since the last couple of years where investors around the world are trying to pay attention to market prices and where they're going and headed. So, I do think that the upside for Hyperliquid to continue the decoupling that we've seen since the year-to-date would be how they're able to capture the market share from the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket. Right now, I think the market share on the prediction markets for Bitcoin specifically on Hyperliquid is around 5 to 10% of where Polymarket is. Also, there's still room to grow, which is great and shows that again that there is the pie that could be expanding there.
So, and then when it comes to the world events where Hyperliquid would be necessary, I do think that OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs are going to be key as well, especially if the pre-IPO markets are actually getting really close to where the IPO price would be once they actually get to to the public markets for both Anthropic and and OpenAI. And these are some of the most weighted, you know, weighted IPOs in the markets after SpaceX. So, I do think it's going to be quite exciting because people use that on day-to-day for all of these AI models. So, that's the exciting part for Hyperliquid.
>> Definitely. All right, thanks for coming by, man. Great episode. Congrats on getting the ETF out.
>> Thank you very much.
>> And thanks for joining us in the tower, man. Hyperliquid to to three digits is imminent. So, we're going to hang on tight here.
>> [laughter] >> All right, thanks, guys.
>> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Yes, sir.
Ellie in the cut in the tower.
Big Hyperliquid bull, I'm in that Bitwise got that ETF out like very fast.
But it's I mean it's been a month.
It's been a month of ETF flows for Hyperliquid already. Numbers are pretty staggering across the board. I know Bitwise You know what's crazy is VanEck launched a Binance coin ETF and it did like a it did like a couple hundred K volume the first day.
Major flop.
Interesting.
It just goes to show that just launching ETF is not going to cut it. Needs to have some underlying momentum.
>> Demand.
Ladies and gentlemen, that is the show for today. Thank you for rocking with us for all the per bulls, hype bulls, aerodrome bulls, ethereum bulls, bitcoin bulls, SpaceX bulls.
Bulls.
All y'all out there, thank you for watching.
>> Drop in. Tomorrow is going to be volatile.
>> Oh.
Fed meeting tomorrow.
Friday signing of the peace treaty.
God, if we round trip from here, I'm going to be in shambles.
>> I think we're going to get some crazy wicks.
>> I think we're going to get some crazy pumps. I'm going to go home and shave, get my get my playoff clean beard in.
You know what I mean?
>> All right. I think that's the show for today, guys.
>> Guys, thanks for watching. We'll We'll be here. Tomorrow is a privacy day.
We're starting a little early.
A little closer around 12. We'll have like eight guests. Canton.
ZK sync, Zama, Zcash, Near.
Multicoin. It's going to be It's going to be lit.
W's in the chat. NOC send, we appreciate you. W for you.
Everybody who's long hype, who's long per.
Long SpaceX. We're making money.
We're definitely making money.
I'm not looking at the P&L right now.
I already looked once. That was the top.
Senator Tanh. Prices been down only since.
>> Hey, hop off my boy Tanh.
>> W's in the chat.
>> Guys, absolutely crushing it.
>> Huge show today. Much love, y'all.
Thanks for rocking with us. Tomorrow be here, same place, same time with you.
We're not going anywhere. We told you we're not going anywhere.
Told you we're sticking around. We're surviving. We're going to get long on the right assets, and we're going to ride them all to my highest, and that's what we're doing. We're going to do it together.
Cuz that's what matters.
What good is making money if you're not making money with your friends?
Make sure Rob is full port hype.
Make sure he sells that ETH.
He's going to sell that ETH.
>> my ETH, still got my hype.
>> He's going to sell that ETH, guys.
>> Nothing's changed.
Bitmain launches their preferred 9 and 1/2% income whenever you want it, whenever you need it. It's available today. Think it might might make something happen. Glamsterdam, the biggest ETH hard fork since the merge.
Putting the finishing touches on that, going live very soon.
>> ETH at 1800.
>> ETH at 1800. It's the stablecoin supercycle.
>> Did David Hoffman sell the bottom?
>> Yeah.
>> Ladies and gentlemen, give it up >> [applause] >> for the roll [cheering] up team, the producers, the children screaming sound and laughing.
>> [applause] >> What a show. What a pump. Hype to 80s this week, 90s by the end of the month.
We'll see.
Path to three digits is preordained.
>> I will see you there.
>> ride. Smash the like, smash the sub, hit the notifications on on YouTube. Much love for you guys rocking with us.
Let's go, Rob.
>> Big day.
>> Signing off.
>> See you tomorrow.
>> Inshallah.
>> Bye.
>> [music] [music]
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