We *REALLY* Need to Talk about The Stock Market

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Guys, we need to talk. There's a lot of tom foolery going on in the stock market right now, and I'm trying to help you guys make money or prevent you from losing a good chunk of it. That's what we're going to talk about in today's episode. I'm going to share with you historically what is going to happen with markets. the like history doesn't always exactly repeat itself, but normally it kind of looks the same, okay? It might not be as severe or might not be as good, but you tend to kind of follow that overall trend. And there's some very clear history on what to expect over the next couple of months. But I also see a troubling trend right now of people calling this market a bubble, people being bearish, not positioned correctly in this market. Now, keep in mind, I am not a financial adviser. I'm not a financial planner. Anything can happen. This market really, Trump is very volatile. One tweet can make or break the markets on any given day. So, like I don't know what Trump's next tweet is going to look like, but I I do know a couple of things and we'll get into that in today's episode. Um, what's coming next for markets? This once in a-lifetime opportunity that I think we we have right now that a lot of people are squandering.

[00:01:34]Okay, this is not the moment to squander your once in a-lifetime opportunity. you may not have another opportunity like this for a very long time. And I know as I'm saying that the the NASDAQ has an RSI of 82. Like I get how crazy that sounds if uh if if you don't understand what we're going to talk about in today's episode. So, it's critical that you stick around a while that you try to understand this because this video will help you make money and probably a lot of it. Now, with that said, before we begin, hit that like button, subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already. Now, if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode, but we'll talk about that in just a few minutes. Let me first acknowledge one thing. As we talked about earlier today, this market, yeah, it had a good day today, but it was really semiconductors.

[00:02:38]It was semiconductors, Apple, Tesla. Now, I've said on this channel for a while now, I'm really bullish Tesla, but I'm not bullish on the rest of MAG7. I'm not like bearish on the rest of MAG7. I don't think they're going to collapse or anything.

[00:02:55]Let's not be dramatic here. I just don't think if you're watching this video, that is the best place to put your money right now. Obviously, if you're watching this video, you're trying to make as much money in as fast amount of time as possible by taking on as little risk as possible. Mag 7 just doesn't check those boxes for me besides Tesla. Now, semiconductors, they really led this market today. The NASDAQ was up almost 2%.

[00:03:28]Semiconductors, that's what did it.

[00:03:31]Okay, semiconductors, I want to give you guys a warning at the start of this video.

[00:03:39]They are stretched.

[00:03:41]They are pricing in a lot of good news.

[00:03:43]I mean, Intel doesn't go from 20 to 110 in the course of six months and it's a screaming buying opportunity, right?

[00:03:53]Qualcomm is up 12% today. Micron is up over 11%. AMD is up eight. Intel up another eight today. Okay, there's not a whole lot of value here.

[00:04:06]You need to be prepared for pain in semiconductors.

[00:04:11]Not because things are bad, but because they're so good, you've already priced it in. So, if you are out there doubling down on semiconductors right now, I get the I get why you're bullish for the next couple of years. There's a lot of earnings growth there. There's a lot of investment there. I I get it. But it's priced into these stocks already. Now, specifically when it comes to semiconductors, this happens all of the time. Okay. What happens all of the time? Nvidia. Nvidia is the poster child for semiconductors, right? What Nvidia does, the others will tend to follow.

[00:04:51]This happens all the time. Nvidia will do really well before earnings. People are pricing in good earnings. Nvidia reports at the end of earning season. So at least uh for years now it seems like other semiconductor stocks will do really well. That will gas up expectations for Nvidia earnings and then what happens? Nvidia reports a blowout quarter and then semiconductors chill out for a couple of months. That's what is going to happen again. Okay, it's going to happen again. Be prepared for that.

[00:05:26]By the end of May, Nvidia will report earnings. The stock will sell off a little bit after earnings, not a disaster, but sell off a little bit. And semi semiconductors will stop skyrocketing just every day. Okay? You will go into a multi-month hiatus in semiconductors where other areas will take the leadership. So, if you played the semiconductor rally, well, great. If if you were only in semiconductors for a trade, I think it's time to take a profit. If you are in semiconductors for the next couple of years because you're bullish, you have your own thesis, that's fine. Just be prepared for semiconductors to do nothing for the next 3 to six months and for other areas to outperform. Been very clear about this on the channel. The areas that will outperform are the areas that will benefit from lower inflation, lower oil, and a stronger consumer. Let's say that again. Lower oil, lower inflation, stronger consumer.

[00:06:33]What areas benefit from that dynamic?

[00:06:39]Okay.

[00:06:40]Consumer cyclicals.

[00:06:43]Easy. It's literally in the name.

[00:06:46]Consumer cyclicals technology excluding Mac 7. Does Max 7 benefit from a stronger consumer? Maybe.

[00:06:56]Is it hurt by a weaker consumer? Not really. Okay. Tech stocks, a lot of them are smaller companies are more impacted in a positive way by a stronger consumer, by lower inflation, lower oil.

[00:07:13]um thus leading to maybe a more accommodative Fed. Financials, easy one here. Benefit from a stronger consumer, stronger economy, lower oil, easier Fed policy. Okay, again, you want to think about what is priced into this market.

[00:07:34]So if tech excluding MAG7 was doing all of the heavy lifting here, if software stocks were back to their highs, if Oracle was back to their highs, if cyber was back to their highs, right? That's a lot of the technology excluding Mag7, Oracle, Palenteer, Synopsis, Fortnet, Crowd, um Palo Alto, right? Block or Square, uh, Core Pay, Global Payments, F5, Gen Digital, U, NetApp, uh, VeraSign, right? If these stocks were already doing very well, like at the same pace as semiconductors, there wouldn't be as much of an opportunity.

[00:08:16]But there's been such a underperformance versus semiconductors, the leader within tech. I think you're going to get a rotation into those underperformers.

[00:08:26]again a rotation into consumer cyclicals and financials. Could Mag 7 do well? It could. Okay. But I think it's going to be a mixed bag. I think Microsoft could do well. Okay. Because that is tied into the software trade heavily.

[00:08:44]Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, like they could go either way. and MAG 7 is is what is going to dominate how the indexes perform. Um so if you had a rotation from defenses, financial or defensives, industrials, utilities, energy into financials, cyclicals, and tech excluding MAG 7, the net on the S&P is probably neutral. Okay? like you could see a a huge rotation and the S&P not move because they're roughly similar waitings in the S&P. Okay. Now, if MAG7 does really well, the S&P is going to continue to skyrocket. If the MAG 7 does poorly, S&P is actually going to come down. At the same time, software, financials, cyclicals could do very well. Hopefully, that makes some sense.

[00:09:38]Now, as I've talked about before on this channel many times now, it is a midterm election year. Now, during a midterm election year, markets tend to make their high for the year in April or before the midterm before the midterm election high at least in April. It is May 8th today. Stocks are still ripping.

[00:10:00]That is already out of the historical normal pattern, right? Um, so again, history doesn't always repeat itself, but it typically rhymes.

[00:10:12]You normally experience downside during a midterm election year in the summertime, but considering the areas that have led this market higher, MAG 7, specifically semiconductors, you probably get a strong rotation in this market where the laggers begin to outperform and the the outperformers begin to lag.

[00:10:38]So, by no means am I saying the markets are about to crash here. Don't don't be confused. I'm saying the biggest leaders may underperform. That may drag down the headline indexes as you typically see during the summer before a midterm election.

[00:10:58]But there's going to be some big winners here. And that's what I think a lot of people are missing because when you look at the NASDAQ right now, the NASDAQ has an RSI of 82.26.

[00:11:10]You're going to come down. The NASDAQ is going to fall. It is going to consolidate.

[00:11:17]Like you cannot sustain an 82 RSI.

[00:11:21]Unsustainable.

[00:11:24]I I I hope we all know this at this point. But it doesn't mean that everything has to come down if the markets come down. Now I think again the stop clock if you will the timer um has started. Nvidia earnings are the timer for um this consolidation correction whatever you want to call it in the markets. Okay. When Nvidia reports earnings the stock will sell the news.

[00:11:52]Mag 7 will likely sell off a little bit and no matter what else is happening under the surface of this market, this rotation very well could happen at the same time and the market still come down a bit. Now again, I've been calling for about a 2 to 7% um consolidation of this move. that is most likely coming in the next couple of months. But I also think you could have a 20 to 30% or more rally in financials cyclicals tech excluding mag 7 like software at the same exact time. Other individuals like Tom Lee expect that we're going to have a 15 to 20% draw down this year before we inevitably rally to about 7700 by the end of this year. That would look like a straight down crash and then literally a vertical rally again. I don't think that is going to happen. I just think you're going to see a pretty violent rotation and people are not ready for this. But even more so recently, I've started to hear a lot of people talk about a bubble that AI is in a bubble that um you know that people are just waiting for the shoes to drop and uh for the markets to crash. And unfortunately, if that is you, you're going to miss out on a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Now, what is this once in a-lifetime opportunity? Well, again, historically, the markets are going to be up about 30% over the next year from a headline index perspective. That's history for you. I don't know if it's 20%, I don't know if it's 10%.

[00:13:34]But historically, the markets are going to be up about 30%. A a a year from now.

[00:13:39]Now, historically, the markets are set to rally starting in October and then rally until about July of 2027.

[00:13:49]That's what history says. Don't shoot the messenger here. That's history for the headline index. What happens under the surface could look a lot more explosive based on what sectors are being priced for what. for an example, cyclicals, financials, tech, excluding Mag 7.

[00:14:10]Nobody's really bullish on these areas.

[00:14:13]Nobody. Now, we all have to understand this. Um, and I think everyone's missing this. AI is in its baby stages. Okay? SE the semiconductor trade is not the end destination for um the the AI trade, right? It's it's step one.

[00:14:35]The biggest companies of the internet were not the companies that enabled the internet. It wasn't Cisco. Let me just remind you. It was Meta. It was Amazon.

[00:14:46]It were the companies that built things on top of the technology that existed and then evolved.

[00:14:55]We haven't even really seen those companies that are building things on top of AI actually do well. These are going to be cyber security stocks. These are going to be software companies.

[00:15:05]These are going to be uh maybe cyclical companies, right? Who knows? Those are the areas that we should be looking at right now. Those are going to be the areas that benefit from this once-ina-lifetime rally that is likely starting next year. Okay? You are about to see, let me get close to the mic for this. You are about to have likely the strongest rally you've ever seen over the next 1 to 3 years beginning later this year.

[00:15:41]This is at the same time everyone's starting to talk about an AI bubble. In fact, valuations are nowhere close to bubble-like valuations in most areas of the markets. Now, I also really like the consumer cyclical trade because for a lot of different reasons, I I I think it's one of the easiest calls right now. Uh, one reason is the consumer has been weak for years.

[00:16:07]Real estate is the key there. Real estate, 70% of household net worth is tied up in their equity in their homes.

[00:16:14]We have record low home sales. So if that picks up, if home sales begin to trend higher, which they have started to, that's going to unlock a lot of spending for the consumer. But what happens when the economy grows, when productivity grows, when GDP grows, cyclicals do very well. Literally, it's in the name consumer cyclicals.

[00:16:37]Cyclical to the economy, cyclical to the consumer. If the consumer gains and and benefits, especially as inflation comes down, mortgages begin to transact again.

[00:16:48]Cyclicals are going to be one of the biggest winners from AI, right? Um there's so much opportunity in cyclicals right now. It's stupid. Same is true for financials. That same logic applies directly to financials as well. you know, software. There's going to be some huge losers and some huge, massive winners within software. Do you think software is in a bubble? I I don't think so. Do you think consumer cyclicals are in a bubble? I don't think so. Do you think financials are in a bubble? I don't think so. Could memory storage stocks be in a bubble? Maybe. It's possible.

[00:17:31]Do I know that with a degree of certainty? No, but it's definitely possible. Okay. Um, so you have to look at individual areas of the markets right now. And when you do, you will start to identify these once in a-lifetime opportunities. Now, more specifically, if you're trying to make as much money as possible in the shortest amount of time possible, which is absolutely you, if you're watching this video, there's two ways to do it. You could try to day trade. Don't do it. You're going to lose all of your money. Nobody gets rich day trading in the stock market. That's a fantasy. Number two is heavily concentrating into big winners in the markets. If you were heavily concentrated into Nvidia, well, you're somewhere on a beach drinking, you know, Bahama Mamas and margaritas right now.

[00:18:21]The idea is you want to find those big winners and heavily concentrate into them. You only need a couple of them.

[00:18:29]That is what we are doing in the trading community is having a little bit of foresight here. Little bit of understanding of what the future could look like, how companies are executing.

[00:18:39]Uh are they at risk of AI disruption or or not? Or is Wall Street getting it wrong? Are algorithms uh heavily discounting stocks that where a discount shouldn't belong? Right? for an example.

[00:18:53]Those are some of the criterias that we look at and that's what we are doing in the trading community. Now, you know, over the past year, a lot of those big winners have been, you know, semiconductor related, right?

[00:19:06]I bought Nebius at $22 a share. Where is Nebius today? Um, they report earnings in this upcoming week. By the way, I bought Nebus at $22 a share. It's $178 a share. Okay, that's uh that's a gain of 750% at the high. That was a gain of 827%.

[00:19:27]I bought that last year, April of 2025.

[00:19:31]NVTS identified this one as a winner. Okay.

[00:19:37]Was buying that around a $1.70 back in May of 2025.

[00:19:43]At the high, the stock was up 900% from when we first bought it. Right now, the stock's still up 700%. Since we first bought it, okay, APLD, I was buying the stock at $3 a share. Okay, last year, $3 a share. Back in April, the stock today is up 800% from that level. The stock was up 900%.

[00:20:13]at the high.

[00:20:16]That's what we do. We find these big winners. Now, I'm not a financial adviser. I'm not a financial planner.

[00:20:22]You could lose money, okay? But I think the opportunities are really starting starting to broaden out. Not just semiconductors right now, okay? There's massive opportunities in these other areas that you know as history would suggest we are identifying. Not a financial adviser, not a financial planner, but if you guys want to come invest alongside of us and with the idea of making a lot of money a lot faster than the rest of Wall Street, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. But contact financial adviser before making investment decisions. You are responsible for investing your capital.

[00:21:03]I point out opportunities and share what I'm doing. Now, again, as I've talked about on this channel on a separate note, um when the Iran war officially ends, um I think you could actually see a sell the news event in the broader index as well, but there's going to be some ferocious rallies under the surface and financials, cyclicals, in areas of tech, excluding more of your MAG7 stocks. Um and and and that could be the catalyst that gives you a little bit of a reset here in the NASDAQ, in the S&P when you are this overstretched.

[00:21:41]If not, it's going to be Nvidia earnings later this month. So, I think we're coming down to the wire here where you should start to expect some downside in the markets, but that doesn't mean everything's going to fall. This is actually one of the weirdest markets I've seen in a long time where I'm like growing pretty skeptical of like the NASDAQ here because it's so over overbought.

[00:22:09]But I don't think I've ever been this bullish on the markets with an RSI of 82 on the NASDAQ. Like I am buying stocks actively almost every day right now knowing that the NASDAQ is going to pull back but I don't think everything's going to pull back and I think some of these winners for the next you know some of the biggest winners for the next couple of years are the stocks that we are buying right now that will actually benefit over the summer. So um yeah it's a very weird situation that we have on our hands. Now again back to the bubble argument briefly. I think one day we will enter into a bubble. Okay. Um cyclicals, financials, um tech, right? But semiconductors don't bother me. Why? because there is actual productivity here with AI. AI is actually being used today. I get why people are all bowled up on semiconductors. I think that's a bad use of capital after they've rallied so much. I think there's much better opportunities elsewhere. But what's simply going to happen is these semiconductors will become a lot less important to the markets. The focus will shift to other areas. So, I don't think you're going to see a de a massive implosion of semiconductors, but at some point they will just stop going up and really start to find a level in which they trade at. Kind of like back in 2022, Apple was the saving grace for the stock market. Nvidia has been the saving grace for the stock m stock market at at moments over the past couple of years.

[00:24:00]It's not really like that today. Nvidia could come out with worse than expected earnings. Of course, is that going to drag down the NASDAQ? Yeah, but I don't think it would cause a full-blown market panic and everything. Some areas would do really well, right, if Nvidia had worse than expected earnings. Like, it would allow other areas to see some capital influx. So, it's a weird moment that we're in and I think a lot of people are not going to benefit the way that they should over the next couple of years.

[00:24:38]Like, I will give you one example of a stock that I think has a lot of opportunity in the near term, but also will benefit from a stronger consumer over the next two to five years, will benefit from AI growing the economy, and it's one you wouldn't think of. Royal Caribbean. Okay. They now pay you about two a 2.3% dividend. Each share pays you $6 a year to hold it. They're projecting $20 of EPS next year.

[00:25:09]I mean that means by the end of this year the stock is trading at a 13.85x 85x PE about half uh you know 40 45% discount to the headline S&P index directly benefits from a stronger consumer if oil prices come down as we hope over over the next couple of months directly benefits profitability like pays you a 2.3% dividend.

[00:25:39]Yeah, that's one that you wouldn't think is a big opportunity, but this stock could double in the next 12 months.

[00:25:46]Okay.

[00:25:48]At least get back into the 400s easily. I mean, if the stock was a market multiple um by say the end of this year, by December, that's a $420 stock.

[00:26:05]It's 277 today. Like there are some of these opportunities that I think you don't have to take a ton of risk in to make a lot of money.

[00:26:16]You know, do I think Nvidia is going to double anytime soon? I don't. Do I think Micron's going to double anytime soon? I don't. Do I think Intel is going to double anytime soon? Not really. Okay.

[00:26:28]Possibly. I would like Intel and AMD more than Nvidia for that uh matter at this point. But this is one example of like a stock that nobody's paying attention to that has short-term and long-term tailwinds to the business.

[00:26:46]It's a it's a no-brainer. Now, Royal Caribbean is a far cry from uh you know, some of the other stocks that I'm more bullish on for larger upside. Yeah, I think Royal Caribbean could be like a $500 billion market cap company one day at 75 billion today. Like I think the stock could four to 6x over time um and pay that dividend. Probably get that dividend up to like $20 a share in the next 10 years. Um which would be crazy.

[00:27:12]It'd be like a 30% um dividend stock at that point. Uh but but like there's other stocks that could easily more than 10x. I'm just pointing out this opportunity here because look, nobody's thinking like this. And some of these opportunities are just literally right in your face right now. They're screaming opportunities like a Zeta. I mean, um, can't say enough good things about Zeta, Zeta, however you want to call it.

[00:27:45]That's a software stock. Yeah. It's going to be one of the biggest AI winners.

[00:27:51]One of the biggest winners by far.

[00:27:54]other stocks are going to be some of the biggest AI losers within software.

[00:27:59]That's how you want to be thinking about the next two to five years and positioning for that right now. Because by the time everyone already loves a stock, it's too late. It's too late, my friend. You're not going to be the guy that jumped on the bandwagon when everyone else was telling you to jump on the bandwagon and make a fortune. You have to jump on the b bandwagon before people love the the stock or love the idea. And that's what we are doing in the trading community. That's what I'm expressing to you here in today's episode. If this makes sense to you, let me know down below in the comment section. If it doesn't, let me know why it doesn't make sense or where you would counter the argument. In the meantime, hit that like button, subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already. Again, that link is down below in the description of today's episode.

[00:28:43]Have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next