This Signalled Every Bitcoin Bottom — We're 4.9% Away, So Why Risk It

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]So, let's jump right into it here on the Bitcoin realize cap hotwaves chart we have here on bitcoin magazinepro.com.

[00:00:06]Now, what I'm going to do is just remove all of these bands from 3 months and below. So, what this chart is showing us is almost the influence different age bands have on the realized price. Now, the realized price being the average accumulation price or cost basis of all Bitcoin on the network. when these larger longer age bands really start spiking to the upside indicates a distinct lack of new capital flowing into the market. And what we can see is right now this is approaching around 84% very very similar to levels we usually see Bitcoin bare market lows at. If I just highlight all the areas where these distinct levels have occurred previously, as I said, literally the bare market lows practically every single time. Now I can actually work out which version of this I like more. If I do just the longer age bands or if I just add the shorter age bands on. It's pretty much showing us the exact exact same thing just completely flipped. But again, what we can see is this red these warmer colors show us when new capital is flowing in and having a large influence. When this spikes rapidly to the upside like we see at bull market peaks indicates that new market participants, those that have been here for 3 months or less, are coming into the market and paying potentially disproportionately high prices for their Bitcoin in relation to those longer market participants. And they're the exact same levels. We can see bare market lows every single time. And these are the levels we're currently at, indicating no new capital is flowing in, which might sound like a bearish thing, but as we can see historically, this peak level of disinterest and capitulation is is really what transitions a bare market into a bull market. Now, I'm not saying we can't go lower. We're destined to immediately price higher, but we're starting to get some inclinations that we're probably closer to transitioning into the next phase of the cycle than I think many maybe realize. If we look at the long-term holder supply of Bitcoin, I anticipated this wouldn't cross 16 million for a few months. And I know there's a few hundred,000 due to some Coinbase movements within their wallets internally, but this has just been rapidly increasing and is now only about 30,000 away from an all-time high reading on the long-term holder supply.

[00:02:22]Now, again, should we have a look at moments where this has peaked? We can see right here pretty much at the bare market lows. We can see here before we actually set bare market lows and then again here before we rallied to new all-time highs and once again down here at bare market lows. When lots of people are wanting to hold Bitcoin and aren't willing to sell it. And I don't want to say the sellers are exhausted because if we do get a black swan event, large and long-term experienced holders may consider again offloading a little bit of Bitcoin. But if we look at the value days destroyed multiple, we can see over the past few months, this hasn't been the case at all. They've really subsided their distribution, these large and long-term holders. What we can see right now and and where we were just a few weeks ago, again, exactly at bare market low levels. The value days destroyed weighs based on the coin days destroyed, which is essentially the velocity of Bitcoin movement. It weights the amount of Bitcoin that was transferred by the amount of time it was held. So we can essentially gauge the amount of long-term and large holders who are distributing their coins and again it's extremely low valuations. If we just go to the raw coin days destroyed but adjusted for the circulating supply of bitcoin again very similar indication we can see as we currently are on the supply adjusted coin days destroyed. The only instances where we've been at these levels before are unbelievable accumulation opportunities. Now, in some of these instances, like we can see here in 2018, this occurred just prior to a big downward spike in price action. It didn't mark the immediate low. I mean, the the charts we previously looked at kind of did point towards an immediate low, but occasionally we do see almost this final flush out, this final capitulation event. And if we do get a black swan, if we do get some more geopolitical uncertainty, a tweet from a certain person and a certain white building that sends the markets into turmoil, then again, we could see lower prices. I'm not saying that that isn't the case. I'm just saying, is it worth the risk of not even taking into consideration that the Bitcoin bare market lows may be in? And if we look at the spend output profit ratio, we can see monumental levels of capitulation occurred, realized losses on the network at these most recent $60,000 lows. Again, looking pretty similar to what we usually see at bare market lows. But if I just zoom in, we can see after just a what six 7% dip, we're already seeing people realizing losses. The only real losses happening on chain right now are those that have been accumulating at local highs.

[00:04:55]the amount of sellers who are actually making a notable difference in the supply and demand dynamics has rapidly declined. Finally, if we look at the Bitcoin whale shadows or the revived supply, what this does is tells us specifically when there are individuals which have a monumental amount of Bitcoin, we're talking hundreds or thousands of Bitcoin who have been holding for years and years and years.

[00:05:19]Again, just from a supply and demand economics perspective, once a monumental amount of Bitcoin hits the open market, unless there's a Michael Sailor around to buy all of that up immediately, this just has a detrimental impact on price. Usually, we can see big clusters, especially if we just isolate, say, the 79 around bull market peaks because they're aware that this is the opportunity when there's sufficient liquidity to start offloading the coins that they likely accumulated at significantly lower prices. But because we have so many different age bands, four to five, 5 to 7, etc., what we can do is actually aggregate all of these whale shadows. So if I go here onto Google Sheets, now this was obtained using the CSV data download. If you're not a site subscriber to Bitcoin Magazine Pro, first of all, why not? But it does allow you to actually manipulate a lot of the data points we have to create your own custom metrics. So, if we aggregate all of these whale shadows together, it looks a little bit messy.

[00:06:13]But if we look at a 28 day average, a 4-week or about a one month average of this data point, and again, just for accuracy sake, I will say we're only doing this from the first day of the 10year plus whale shadow ban. It doesn't really make sense to do this analysis prior to then because Bitcoin just hadn't been around that long. But we can say from around here, October 2020. If we just go back here, what we can see is we are at very very minimal levels of whale distribution. In fact, if we look at where we are now, it hasn't occurred in this cycle so far. The last time it occurred was back here, well, when price was what, $8,000ish?

[00:06:53]No, that can't be right. $25,000ish.

[00:06:55]Looking at the wrong scale there. This doesn't happen very often. If we look at the previous cycle, it was just before we rallied to new highs. It was after we'd had a retracement down to $30,000, just before we ran up to a new all-time high, and again, just after we'd had all these big dumps in the market. So, again, I'm not saying we can't go lower.

[00:07:14]I'm just saying it's starting to look like the probability that the worst is behind us has increased, at least in my opinion, beyond 50%. So, waiting for an arbitrary date and an arbitrary price lower than we are today is a little bit risky in my mind. Now, I know a lot of people looked to something like the long-term holder realized price, which as I film this is currently around $48,600.

[00:07:39]And if we zoom out, we can see every single Bitcoin cycle, every single Bitcoin bare market has had its bottom out occurring beneath this level. And we haven't done that yet. And if we look at Bitcoin through a four-ear cycle lens, we haven't had this timebased capitulation that we may be anticipating. See Bitcoin bottom out maybe in a few months. a lot of people looking towards October time and I hate I I hate saying that this time is different because I just it feels like I'm cheating but I don't think that this time is different because if we look at the supply and demand economics data not arbitrary dates on a calendar if we look at who is buying and selling this time isn't different because the long-term holders have stopped selling no new capitals flowing in but This is what happens at the tail end of bare markets. When people have lost all hope, when people claim that Bitcoin has died to death and will never recover again.

[00:08:35]When the long-term holder supply reaches new all-time highs and the supply adjusted coin days destroyed and the value days destroyed, all show a complete lack of distribution from these large and long-term holders. In my mind, the base case is we have already bottomed. We may still have some weeks and months of chop ahead of us to to really fulfill that time g timebased capitulation but risking not accumulating around these prices and saying we can't have bottomed yet because we haven't f fulfilled x y and zed criteria when the data points that really matter are showing that we've we've reached peak apathy in the market is to me not not the way I'm playing the market right now. So, just to summarize, Bitcoin is approaching peak levels of disinterest and despair. Close to no new capital is flowing in from retail participants. We didn't even cover this today. If we look at Michael Sailor buying billions of dollars every single week, that's all the new Bitcoin inflation, all the newly minted Bitcoin completely gone immediately. and a vast majority of the speculative retail participants who are only buying a few hundred few thousand dollars here and there. Again, that's practically already been wiped out in terms of their sell pressure by one individual. Once the floodgates start opening and we see more and more capital rolling in from the ETFs and more treasury companies, I just don't think there's enough sell pressure to really have a deeper capitulation.

[00:10:06]I'm not sure who is going to capitulate from these levels when we've already seen this big sell-off in the Bitcoin market. And if we look at the onchain data, we can see that a lot of the sellers truly are exhausted. Now, I'm not saying that we can't go lower. A black swan event which craters all markets, equities, commodities, cryptocurrencies, etc., is probably going to have a negative effect on the Bitcoin price action. That's obvious.

[00:10:30]But if it looks like the end of a bare market and smells like the end of a bare market, is it the end of a bare market? I mean, we can see the data point that we're seeing right now aligns with pretty much every single bare market low we had throughout the entire history of Bitcoin. And sure, there's a few percentage maybe just under 5% to reach that kind of realized cap hotter waves peak all-time high that was set in the previous market, but in my mind, I just I'm I'm I'm becoming more and more bullish. I mean, until we break that kind of one-year moving average around $95,000ish, as I film that, 94ish, we can't concretely say that this bare market is finished. But if I was a betting man, and I guess we're all trading and investing in speculative and volatile assets, so we're all kind of betting people. You know, my my money is on right now being the asymmetric opportunity of a life of a lifetime.

[00:11:25]Almost had such a good poetic finish and I just stumbled over my own voice. But if you did like this video, then again, do consider becoming a site subscriber to gain access to the API and the CSV data downloads that we use today. All of the professional charts at higher resolutions a lot of the time. and the trading view indicators, industry reports, and a whole lot more that I'm sure you'll find lots of value out of.

[00:11:46]And as always, thank you all very much for watching. Let you let me know your thoughts down below in the comments and on social media. I look forward to reading and replying to them. Thank you all very much for watching and I'll see you in the next one.

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