BITCOIN’S BEAR MARKET IS ALMOST OVER - The Data Is Screaming

[00:00:00]Good day everyone. My name is Adam Livingston and I am the Bitcoin wizard.

[00:00:03]Happy Saturday my dearest little goblin rat children. Today we're going to be talking about Bitcoin where we are at in the bare market and how much time we have left because I did some indepth analysis with 20 onchain indicators.

[00:00:19]Now, I don't know whether coin printed the exact cycle low on June 30th when we were touching 58K, but the bare market as of this point is mature. The network is still absorbing the damage and the next two years are offering a violently better setup than the next two months.

[00:00:37]Everybody wants a divine telegram identifying the final red candle in Bitcoin. But unfortunately, God does not run a paid Discord group. No matter what market you look at, especially the Bitcoin market, because everything is so transparent for us, markets offer evidence and probability and the opportunity of course to look like a complete idiot before eventually being right. You know what I'm talking about.

[00:01:04]You are a Bitcoiner like me. So we are going to go through those 20 onchain data sets of the three completed Bitcoin bare markets actually that in addition to all of Bitcoin's price history all of these historical analoges that I have run and my argument is that Bitcoin's long horizon asymmetry is already becoming very very obvious right now.

[00:01:25]You do not want to miss the opportunity kids unless of course you have the time horizon of an ant. You guys are going to love the video. Please hit the like button and subscribe to the channel on YouTube. That way you can support me spread the orange gospel of Bitcoin to the masses. And I do want to take a moment to thank Horizon for sponsoring today's video. If you guys are interested in taking your traptoome equity to buy Bitcoin, Horizon is standing by to help you do so. Bitcoin's at 64,000 right now. You can take your trap to equity to buy a coin with no monthly payments, no income requirements, no term limits, and zero risk of forced liquidation because this isn't leverage gambling nonsense. Join horizon.com to take your trapped home equity that you already have into Bitcoin. Link down below. I will talk more about Horizon at the end of the video. And we're talking about Bitcoin today. So, let's talk about the most important strategic reserve, your own Bitcoin reserve. Yes, the one that is personal to you so you can be a sovereign Bitcoiner. If you don't have Bitcoin in cold storage or if you're not running your own node, what are you doing? My friends at the Bitcoin way will train you to be your own bank so you can be a sovereign Bitcoiner and they'll help you do it using only the best open-source tools. You can go to the bitcoinway.com/adam to schedule a free introductory call or you can scan that QR code that's right there. Don't delay. Your freedom depends on it. Okay kids, my verdict is a mature bare market, but with incomplete confirmation, but at the same time, we do have exceptional asymmetry here. I assign a 46% probability that the final low of Bitcoin is already in. I am bullish, but I am not conducting a hostage negotiation with the evidence.

[00:03:04]We are 283 days beyond the October 2025 high, which is 75% of the historical median bare market clock among the 10 closest declustered analoges, 90% of them were positive 12 months later. And guess what? Every single one of these historical analoges, analoges to today, that's what I mean. Every single one was positive after 24 months with a median return of 322%.

[00:03:33]The next 2 years are really where the arithmetic starts to become extraordinary. Precise low calling has a weak expected value kids. But if you correctly identify a mature accumulation regime, this has historically had enormous expected value. And people treat the bare market ending like one bell rings at Black Rockck, but that's not reality. There are three endings.

[00:04:00]First, the price has to print its final low. Like I just said, my probability of that 46%. And I do have that rising to 78% by midocctober. And the reason why is because second, we need to understand that the Bitcoin market only enters a confirmed bull regime through repaired cost basis. Okay, positive momentum, profitable spending. That is 63% likely within 6 months and 82% within 12. And third, I do think that Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, 58% chance by month 18, but 72% within 24 months. Now, Bitcoin X, they compress all three of these into one god candle because Nuance died in 2017, and its corpse sells trading courses. But investors, we don't need to wait for gate three here. The highest expected return usually appears after the damage and before certainty waddles into the room. And that's why I am buying Bitcoin today. So the daily close high of Bitcoin was $124,728 on October 6th, 2025. The lowest close so far was on June 30th, $58,526, which was $267 days later from the all-time high to the current low print. The prior major bare markets, they took 406 days in 2013, 364 days in 2017, and 378 days in 2021. So if this June low holds this bare market, that means the cycle bottomed 97 days faster than the prior fastest bare market. Now the calendar does not prove the low obviously, but it tells us that the bear is late. It's breathing heavily and it's asking whether the stairlift is covered by Medicare. Today is day 283, 75% of that median clock. So, the time says that the Bit Bear market is mature, but it does not say dead quite yet. And I know that there's a lot of 4-year cycle bros out there. I'm just saying if you look at the median bare market here, 378 days, uh, 111 days from now, that would print a 4-year cycle pretty much exactly. So, this is the tension right now. The current cycle reached a maximum closing draw down of only 53.1% but the median completed cycle low was 83.4% below the high. We've done a lot of talk on this channel about Bitcoin's decreasing volatility. So I think the people calling for 20,000 30,000 Bitcoin these people are likely smoking crack.

[00:06:36]And so two explanations fit here.

[00:06:38]Bitcoin's structure has changed enough that future bears no longer require ritual disembowelment of their organs or the market has unfinished business and one more trap door beneath the trap door. But in my humble opinion, we saw muted upside in the bull run. We didn't have a blowoff top past the power law trend. Not in the slightest. So I don't think we'll see equal levels of downside either because the reality is when there is an increased market capitalization of the Bitcoin network for those same levels of draw downs you need a lot more capital leaving the network. So the time clock is starting to get a little bit late here for the bare market but the depth clock is still shallow and this is what is breaking everybody's brains. So, if Bitcoin's market price is falling 50% from the peak, the realized cap of Bitcoin fell only 2.5%. It remains 6.4% higher than 1 year ago, and it currently sits around 1.06 trillion. Do you know what realized cap is? Let me tell you, it values each Bitcoin at the price where it last moved. So, think of it this way. It reflects the network's aggregate paidin basis rather than whichever number escape the asylum and printed on Coinbase this morning. Price always has a psychotic break with the volatility, but the capital base continues to grind upward over time. And the divergence between this looks like repricing and ownership transfer of Bitcoin. The quote of Bitcoin, the price it gets cut in half, but the overall embedded capital was not. The network continues to absorb lots of volatility, but the realized cap barely budges. So, Bitcoin isn't coughing up an organ in a motel bathtub right now. Not in the slightest. As of filming this, the spot Bitcoin price $63,788.

[00:08:28]Now, the 200E moving average is just over 63K. That number continues to go up and to the right, which is tremendously bullish because that 200E moving average compound annual growth rate still pushing north of 20% every single year since 2020. The aggregate realized price of Bitcoin is $52,860, which is very interesting. That is 17.1% below the spot price. Now, what's interesting is that every prior Bitcoin bare market actually ended a little bit below this aggregate realized price. And we know that the low was 58,500.

[00:09:05]So we're still not coming really near that aggregate realized price for the first bare market ever. The shortterm holder realized price is $67,976, but the long-term holder realized price $49,875.

[00:09:20]So right now the battlefield is between 63K and 68K. So the price right now is defending that 200 week moving average, the most bullish chart in Bitcoin. The 200week moving average chart is this light orange line right here. As you can see, it goes up and to the right. That is beautiful. And then this orange price is Bitcoin's price since April of 2024.

[00:09:44]The red line is the shortterm holder basis. A durable move above $68,000 Bitcoin changes recent buyers incentives. You got to think about this.

[00:09:54]They moved from trapped supply waiting to sell into strength toward profitable holders capable of reinforcing support of the price. So right now price is only 1.1% above that 200 week moving average and 6.2% below that short-term holder cost basis. The structural support is barely holding but it is holding. But unfortunately bull confirmation has not yet quite arrived. But the reality is whenever you're buying Bitcoin, whenever we are at this relation to the 200week moving average, the short-term holder cost basis, the forward returns over the next 6, 12, 18, 24 months, they all rip your face off. So, right now, the market is just standing on the basement stairs trying to kick open the kitchen door.

[00:10:42]Anyone declaring victory right now because Bitcoin stopped falling for 11 minutes, they should have their leverage confiscated. I would not be confident with leverage right now. That said, it is very clear to me that most of the damage has already been done when you look into Bitcoin's decreasing volatility. Now, the MVRV [snorts] is cheap, but it's not quite a generational watch out when we just look at the numbers compared to 2015, 2018, 2022.

[00:11:10]Today is right here. This is the market value above the network's aggregated realized value which is 21% above that number today. Now when you want to calculate a zcore it's only.37 which is historically very inexpensive for Bitcoin but the previous lows you can tell were more washed out. This is just reality here. 2015 was a negative0.7 and then 2018 negative0.5 2022 a negative0.3 and today we're not even negative. So every single completed Bitcoin price bottom also printed a negative Zcore on the MVRV. So Bitcoin is cheap enough to become interesting but still the aggregate network is not yet underwater.

[00:11:58]Now I'm not saying that it will go underwater. Definitely not. This is a matter of probability. We don't have this classic scene where everyone sells a kidney behind an Arby's to meet the margin call. This tells me that terminal capitulation has not arrived, but I'm not saying that it will either. And when we look at that MVRV momentum, it is negative 26.1%.

[00:12:20]So this is materially below its 365day baseline. This is the best possible indicator that our bare market is mature because it has now stayed below zero for 281 days. So, the bare market has aged without filing the paperwork announcing its death. A bull market confirmation would require this momentum to cross above zero and then remain there. A brief spike, that's kind of noise. A sustained positive regime tells us that valuation is improving faster than the trend and the market has moved from stabilization to expansion. So right now when we look at the supply that's currently in profit, it's sitting at 53.7% that means that 46.3% of coins are underwater right now. And then when you look at UTXO is currently in profit, 51.9%.

[00:13:10]The prior cycle bottoms, this gray right here, this is the prior bottom median.

[00:13:15]Okay, from those other bare markets, 39% for supply and profit, but it's 54% today, 49% for UTXOs, 52% for today. So, we are closer to a bottom signal for the UTXOs and profit. And the loss taking amongst people selling their Bitcoin, it has now reached the old coins. The 30-day adjusted SOPR is 988 and has remained below one for 51 days. You might ask me, what does this mean? Well, if this is below one, it means that coins are moving at realized losses. And this is no longer confined to recent tourists who bought the breakout after watching three laser eyed podcasts or a Bitcoin Wizard YouTube video. Older coins are now bleeding, too. So, right now, we are seeing capitulation amongst both cohorts, the long-term holders and the new ones, both loss taking. Right now, the bare market is conducting an involuntary estate sale. But of course, Longduration Capital is very quietly loading the truck, such as myself. But this is very interesting because if you look at the 30-day average right now, roughly 6,78 Bitcoin per day are leaving the short-term supply, but 6,527 Bitcoin per day are entering the long-term supply. So the latest daily observation here briefly reverse direction and this is why I don't build a cycle thesis from one onchain print anymore than I diagnose heart disease with a case of the hiccups. But the monthly trend shows coins aging into stronger ownership here. The short-term supply is shrinking. While the long-term supply of Bitcoin is growing, which is very consistent with reaccumulation as the weaker hands distribute and then the stronger hands, the stronger holders, they really start to warehouse more coins, which is beautiful because this means that Bitcoin is moving toward holders whose time preference has not been altered by a 5-minute chart. So, the calendar is late right now. It seems like the median clock, 3/4 of it, has elapsed. The price damage is pretty shallow when we compare it to other coin bare markets, but remember we did have muted upside as well. The volatility is going down. The 200E moving average has been pretty well defended so far. Very brief dips below that number this year, not like 2022, 2023 when it spent 100 plus days under that moving average. The recent buyers are underwater. The realized spending shows capitulation, but the momentum it is unconfirmed.

[00:15:49]There are some bullish things there, but I would not take that as orange gospel.

[00:15:53]So, when you look at all of these signals that we've went over today, I really think it seems like we are seeing some advanced floor formation. Not a confirmed bull market, but you don't want to buy in a bull market. You want to buy in a bare market. And to me, Bitcoin has done enough damage to be interesting, but not enough repair to become comfortable, but I don't want to buy when things are comfortable because then I don't make enough money. The discount is the entire opportunity. So once every single one of these signals is green, then Bitcoin is going to be higher and then CNBC brings in the suits of people who are happy and jolly. By then the opportunity is gone. Kids, you got to get paid for acting while the evidence is psychologically disgusting.

[00:16:35]So, with every single one of these 20 different onchain indicators, when you take them all together and you make a fingerprint of what is the closest cycle match, guess what? It is December 7th, 2014, which was 38 days before the prior low. That is at least the closest 2013 cycle match. Now, when we get to the 2017, that was a little bit different.

[00:16:59]But during that cycle, you got to remember this little 4-year cycle, what happened? the COVID crash. Of course, things are going to be different. That was a black swan if there ever was one.

[00:17:09]So, when we look at 2021, which is the better indicator, the better comparison cycle in my humble opinion, the closest match in terms of fingerprint to today would be actually not lying here, August 14th, 2022, which was 99 days before its low. But you can see those 12-month returns from those fingerprints, 5%, 685%, 21% and then when it comes to 2 years, uh, this just means that Bitcoin goes to the moon, 101%, 490%, 149% from all of these prior bare market fingerprints that are like today. And obviously to prevent one historical episode from dominating the data set here, you don't want to do that. You want to select the closest historical analoges from each completed cycle in the past. the median return after the 12 months plus 21% 18 months plus 104% and then the median 24-month return plus 149%. So the first year can still feel mediocre. Bitcoin's convexity historically emerged after the remaining bare noise exhausted itself. The engine here is time. The market humiliates imperfect entries, but then it abruptly reprices the asset, and then it leaves the patient investors looking like geniuses after a year of staring into the middle distance at Thanksgiving.

[00:18:28]Time turns certainty in convexity. There you go. Red line is the 3month median from these analoges when you look to history. Unfortunately, is a slightly negative number. 50% of those analoges did end up positive, but the median was slightly negative. But it gets a lot better when you look at the six-month median returns of 19%, 60% of them were positive. The 12-month median return was 64%, 90% of the analogs had a positive return. And then when it comes to 2 years, literally a 100% positive return every single time. And guess what? A 322% return at that. Unfortunately, markets do not hand out uh 149% to 322% 2-year outcomes because the path feels like a shoulder massage. They pay because the asset can remove your dental filings through the screen. If a 30% draw down forces you to sell your coins, your thesis is a costume the market will strip behind a Wendy's dumpster. So, this is my explicit probability math.

[00:19:31]When I look at 20 different onchain indicators and do an amalgamation, an analysis looking at everything, I think a confirmed bull regime has a 63% probability within 6 months and an 82% within 12. I really do think we're going to see a new all-time high within 18 months, most likely, but more likely within 24. I am pro Bitcoin. I'm not married to one candle, okay? But I just look at whether or not I should be buying. And it seems obvious that I should trying to get that last 1 2 3 4 5% of the draw down. That to me does not seem like a rational risk calculus. So if the price reclaims and holds that short-term holder basis, that would be big. If we see that MVRV momentum cross above zero for more than 2 weeks, you know, these are some of the things that would confirm the bull regime. But we are not quite there yet. We are stuck in the doldrums of the bare market as of now. But ultimately when you want to buy and hold Bitcoin for a number of years, uh these are the opportunities that you wait for because this is where the real money is made. And the time horizon just changes the job. You go from surviving and then you transition and then you compound. Okay, from 0 to 3 months, it seems like we just got to survive a little bit. But the median analog return might be -7%, maybe another low remains plausible. Who cares? And then from 12 to 24 months, that's when you really start compounding those long-term gains.

[00:20:50]At least when you look at a median basis throughout history, the exact low of Bitcoin is always uncertain. A bull regime within 12 months that seems very probable. And the historical 24-month asymmetry here is already enormous.

[00:21:05]Bitcoin is laid in the bare clock. It's defending its structural cost basis. So, we are seeing some coins being transferred into stronger ownership. And when you look at all of these different indicators, it really seems like I should be buying now rather than trying to time some nuke of 50% on down to 30,000 Bitcoin. Are you kidding me? You think another $700 billion is going to leave the Bitcoin network in the next 90 days? I'm sorry. You're a The market may drag us through one more basement and kill the lights and then release something with too many legs.

[00:21:38]That's fine. But the bottom does not need to be obvious for the opportunity to be asymmetric. And that is why I am acting accordingly. My name is Adam Livingston. I am the Bitcoin Wizard.

[00:21:48]Thank you so much for tuning into today's transmission of the orange gospel of Bitcoin. Please do me a favor, hit the like button, subscribe to the channel on YouTube. That way you can support me spread the orange gospel to the masses. Have a terrific day everybody. Do not party too hard. Class dismissed. We all want to own more Bitcoin, but most of us aren't sitting on piles of idle cash. And that is where Horizon comes in. Horizon lets homeowners convert a portion of their home equity into Bitcoin so they can diversify into an asset with stronger long-term growth potential. What makes Horizon stand out is its flexibility.

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