Global Bust vs. Fed's Balance Sheet: Economy Dictates

本站添加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]The problem is, and I have said this, um, many times, I think macro will Trump what he wants to do. In other words, no pun intended, but but, um, you know, basically, next year, if we get what I'm calling for, which is a global deflationary bust, he can think all he wants about the long-term, um, desire to shrink the balance sheet, get it back to a normalized balance sheet, he's not going to be able to do that in the face of a global bust. So, it it it might be a long-term goal, uh, and he might even think he's going to be able to do it over the next year.

[00:00:37]I I think the economy's going to sideline that. So, so, even though I think Warsh could be different than Powell in terms of some of his objectives, um, I I think ultimately, like always, you know, the economy, inflation, and employment are going to be the things the factors, you know, the data's going to kind of dictate what they do, and I don't I I was one that defended Powell through all this. I was not on the side of, you know, he he was, uh, too slow to cut or anything. I think I think the Fed's done a pretty good job considering, if you step back and look at things. Going forward, I think the risk is, and it would have been the risk if Powell was there, it's going to be the risk if Warsh is there, the risk is that they do kind of have in the, you know, the the governor on themselves of fighting the last war.