SA Unemployment | SA’s unemployment figures rose to 32.7%

Added: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]All right, as uh we continue then to explore the country's unemployment crisis. Right, yesterday we're having a conversation with the Department of Labor telling us that there are still some measures that are being put in place in order to try to us and deal with the unemployment crisis in South Africa. But at times it feels like it's not enough.

[00:00:19]>> Yeah. And there's been this narrative that has been coming through from government. Certainly you picked it up when the finance minister Ino Gordon was delivering uh his budget uh about you know recent developments that government says and the common phrase being used and I know some people don't like it green shoots that there are certain green shoots that are starting to look up inflation is under control uh you had had a few quarters of growth marginal marginal growth and all of that and public finances are stabilizing but our guest for the fireside chat >> disagrees >> is here to turn up the fire.

[00:00:56]>> Thank you so much. Welcome.

[00:00:58]>> Thank you so much for the invite.

[00:00:59]>> Yeah. So, where do we even start? I >> I suppose we start first with um you know, we're seeing a lot more people again uh lost their jobs and we're still grappling with the question I suppose a lot of people are asking. Is it a a case of being incapable to create an environment that allows these companies or jobs to be created or does it seem that there's something else that we are struggling with as a country because every year we're talking about this unemployment crisis.

[00:01:33]>> Let me start with Tulis.

[00:01:35]The government has been hallucinating telling us that the economy has turned the corner. They've also gaslit us who question this narrative, you know, because there is no real economy data points to back up the narrative. So the first quarter 2026 quart labor for survey put a nail in the coffin um into this narrative that there is a green shoots of economic recovery and bonga to answer your question you know I've been looking at let's start with the quarter first of all so the quarter 345,000 jobs vanished in 90 days now if you unpack the composition of that the biggest job losses were in community, personal and social services, 26,000 jobs. The next one was construction, 110,000 jobs. Now then you my people at stats as I asked them to unpack this for me. So if you go to the community and it's mostly government, community social and personal personal services. So then you look at the details. So we find that there's proof in the data that they provided me that the national treasury stopped the basic education employment initiative. Um this was a part of the presidential employment stimulus. Now the presidential employment stimulus started in October 2020 as a response to co over the next five years it created 2.5 million work opportunities roughly 500,000 work opportunities every single year. And then um the basic education employment initiative created 1.4 4 million work opportunities and in the last year about 200,000. So if you see the the release um 168,000 jobs were lost in education. So that is the basic education employment initiatives and then on the other side the national youth service there were delays in terms of um providing funding for the national youth service. So the national youth service didn't operate for the first quarter. So that is probably I speculate the 41,000 other jobs. So of the 200,000 and six jobs 168 in education and 41,000 in public administration. So this is the side order. The government was celebrating this primary budget surplus.

[00:04:01]But what logic is there in pursuing this primary budget surplus when it has such an economic blowback? you're cutting spending if they're so committed to job creation. Why are they dashing the hopes of 200,000 young people?

[00:04:19]>> Duma, is there no case to be made as government I imagine would make the case that um our trajectory as far as public finances are concerned was on an unsustainable pathway and something needed to you don't fix the finances by destroying the economy. So that's what they're doing. So let's look at it over 17 years. So I think this best way we can look at two periods in South African history over the past 23 years. So from 2003 to 2008 our economy grows by 4.5% a year and employment grows by 3.6% a year. So we create 3.1 million jobs. So basically what I'm showing is that there's never been a period since 1994 where we had jobless growth. So when the economy grows there's a relationship between GDP growth and jobs. So during that period um when we were growing at 4.5% a job employment creation was 3.6%.

[00:05:13]So the employment multiplier was 0.9. So that's what happened then. So now from the fourth quarter of 2008 to now our GDP growth collapsed for 17 years 1.1% a year. Now if you look at the average emerging developing country 155 of them they grew at 4.4% 4% a year emerg or the same period which is the global financial crisis the excuses that people come with and also the covid pandemic they cruised through those two huge shocks to the economy and they managed to create 4.4% 4% GDP growth over the same period. Why South Africa and Asia 6.3% over those 17 years. So why South Africa alone have we got this? So what we had over the last 17 years 1.1% growth and you must look at the supply side the number of people who entered the labor market 9 million people.

[00:06:10]>> And how many jobs did you create? Two million people. So the difference between the nine and the two that the increase in the unemployed that seven million increase over seven years.

[00:06:21]>> I know you want to probably go in another direction.

[00:06:23]>> No no but but quickly let me just say so we had like so we've increased unemployment by se as Bongi was saying we we haven't why haven't we have a grip on this unemployment? So it was 6 million in quarter 4 2020 2008 now it's 13 million it's 3.8 8 million increase under president Ramaporsa 3.2 under President Zuma. So both of them failed dismally to arrest this jobs crisis and I for the life of me can't understand what's so difficult about >> I know you want to go a bit further but side issue. Did I hear you correctly?

[00:07:02]>> Uh there's never been a point where we've had jobless growth.

[00:07:05]>> No.

[00:07:06]>> Why do I seem to recall that uh people in your space >> Yeah. I was one of the people who said there was jobless growth and I actually went and I had during the years yeah I had a yeah I used to say so I had a meeting with President Becky you apologized I apologized to him I said listen I was one of those people said jobless growth but the thing is to you know >> I want I got the stats and I looked at them stats as they sent me the stats and you know I looked at there was no jobless growth so there has never been jobless growth that's number one the second one that we must say there's never there's no skills mismatch we must not um you know we mustn't shame our people for being you know >> we don't have the skills that the economy >> yeah there's 1.1 million unemployed graduates there are no vacancies in the economy >> but that's where I wanted to go to actually that's where I wanted to go because Duma tonight we're reporting on the fact that the quality um assurance body right wants to phase out some 1,000 courses because it says that um it wants to align the skills to the everchanging jobs market because it describes these courses as legacy courses and we've heard this issue of a skills um issue in South Africa. So are you saying it does not exist?

[00:08:18]>> No. No. I believe in universal education and I believe in universal tertiary education and I believe in free tertiary education and we have to increase um our levels of educational attainment. For example, um the the graduates I think in our population it's about no let's start with um tertiary enrollment it's about 22 23%. In other countries it's they've got universal tertiary like 100% you know and in OECD countries 7. So we have to increase the amount of people the educational attending power in the economy. So if you look at um stats as say they've got this survey of large industrial companies and they ask them you've got spare capacity of about more than 20% spare capacity. Why are you not using your spare capacity?

[00:09:25]They say there's no demand for the things that we the people that we can sell because the people don't have the spending power. So by definition low GDP growth for so long means there's not enough money in the economy. That is it's as simple as that. There's no spending power in the economy. Now to create we have to create Yeah, that's what I'm trying to say. Yeah.

[00:09:49]>> I I I I'm still trying to understand this because Duma you still have uh people who say if you skill these young people >> are being skilled there no jobs.

[00:10:01]>> So So let me say let me say this you have got this argument by some who are saying skill them correctly even from tertiary level. Right. Hang on hang on a second. They say skill them correctly from tertiary level, teach them the qualifications for the now and then and for the future as well. So they can be able to bridge this skills gap.

[00:10:20]>> You know, I looked at the graduates. We graduate more than 200,000 people. And you look at why do they graduate? What's number one? It's STEM.

[00:10:27]>> It's 30%.

[00:10:29]>> Business, commerce, and management is about just below that, 28%. So there's nothing wrong with the composition of our graduates, you know. And I have to mention this like um I was on Chester missing some months ago and I was picked up by a Uber driver and he says you're my um it's my first day on the job.

[00:10:47]You're my eighth customer and um I'm an unemployed doctor.

[00:10:52]>> Sure.

[00:10:52]>> Yes. I was at Safo Makato for six years.

[00:10:56]I was three years at um Charlotte Mle and my brother has been supporting me for so long and I couldn't take it anymore. I've applied for jobs in Thailand. I've applied for jobs in Australia. I've applied for jobs in um Namibia. And that is the situation I'm faced with. There are people who come to my today economics come louder students asking me for jobs.

[00:11:24]It is not a skill shortage. It's a problem on the demand side of economy.

[00:11:28]>> Yeah. Let me take you back to this issue around uh policies, the policy choices we make uh and the structural issues that you talk to account for me Duma for why uh your emphasis is more on the I think you've described it at some point as a public sector investment strike which is counterintuitive because we grew up knowing of a private sector investment strike. Why is your emphasis on the public sector leading and putting money in the economy? Doesn't that uh give um that doesn't that let off the private sector for conditions that some would say have increasingly been improved for them to be actually be >> Why would you invest in this disaster of an economy that 2025 GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2007.

[00:12:22]>> So average living standards and the from the IMF is 1% growth for this year and 1.3% next year. So by the end of you know next year we'll have had two decades of declining living standards.

[00:12:35]So companies invest when there's customers when there's demand for the things that they can produce. So during that period from 2003 to 2008 when that which showed us that when the government spends on its people and its infrastructure the economy grows by 4.5% a year. So what happened during that period? Government consumption spending increased by 5% a year and then public investment increased by 14% a year.

[00:13:01]There was an investment boom by the public sector and that stimulated private investment which picked up later on. So that is how it works. You know the government kickstarts the economy.

[00:13:12]The private sector cannot kickstart the economy. They've got it back to front this government. So now what happened this this time? So in terms of the last 17 years there was a recovery under Jacob Zuma a small recovery 2010 to 2003 but 13 sorry then the wheels came off from 2014 to to now so rail per capita public investment has collapsed by 40% more than 40%.

[00:13:40]Infrastructure must keep up with the growth of the population and inflation.

[00:13:45]So we have had this public sector investment strike which I believe is the number one reason that we're failing to grow. If we stop and then in the budget last year 2025 budget they say construction has got a multiplier the highest multiplier of any sector in the economy. One you spend a rand on construction a billion rand on construction you get 1.9 billion for the economy. You spend a million rand on construction you create three jobs for people whose highest qualification is metric. So if it creates the resources to more than pay for itself, there shouldn't be a budget constraint for >> government tells us that they're doing that though. Uh that they've got 1 trillion rand in the pipeline over the next three years.

[00:14:26]>> So now so from 2014 to now real per capita public investment has declined by um by what you call it by more than 40%.

[00:14:35]And then for the next 3 years, government con public investment will decline from 4.5% of GDP to 3.9%. It is growing slower than the rest of the economy. That is a continuation of the public sector investment strike over the next 3 years and real per capita public investment will decline by 3%. So yeah.

[00:14:57]So >> Duma quickly quickly uh okay before we run out of time you you speak about a government that is supposed to kickstart this economy. This is a government that we hear about uh when the violence minister reports debt is ballooning and you also look at the issue of corruption. You look at the fact that it speaks about a bloated public service and >> the public service is not bloated. Um I believe >> that is what they say.

[00:15:21]>> No no that's not true. Okay. First of all let me just quickly if you look at OECD benchmarks for doctors. Yeah. Um for us we've got I got a spreadsheet from the department of public service last year. We've got 20 million 20,000 doctors for 54 million people who use the public service. If we have that is absolutely insane. Yeah. So if we use OECD benchmarks, we need another 150,000 doctors. Yeah. Number two, do the same for nurses. Um >> as they cry about >> 300,000 nurses that we need. So we need a bigger public sector. Um and then I was looking at um university academic staff in universities. So we've got 20,000 roughly academic staff for 1.1 million people in higher education. And if we So now it's 55 for one 55 learners for one academic staff. Now to reach the average for these OECD countries, it's 15 to1.

[00:16:23]So we need another 160,000 academic staff in our universities. Yeah.

[00:16:28]>> Tell us, pardon me for a second. I know you you you looked at the the future, right? But you do have others who are saying that having these expectations of miracles in a situation where currently we've got the war for example in Iran um you know it it's bringing with it its own challenges it's bring with you know the headwinds at the same time these particular headwinds you think about the increase um when it comes to you know um oil uh supply chains that are being disrupted globally that is going to have an impact on the jobs ultimately. So some are saying that it may not necessarily be the fault of those who are in charge going into the future but you do have other factors that are beyond their control.

[00:17:12]>> You must remember that this war started in end of February at the end of this quarter. So that is not the reasoning the future. I'm saying as we forecast the future there are some who are saying you may argue around the growth some are looking at >> global financial crisis covid pandemic Iran war Ukraine war throughout all these crisis the average emerging market grows by 4.4% the average Asian country grows by 6.6%. I can guarantee you by the time this year is over you'll see the average emerging market 4.4% 4% Asia 6 6% a year because what do the countries do when you have a negative shock to your economy? You put more juice into the economy. That's what you do. You count you can counter there was a shock of the tariffs.

[00:17:58]>> Yeah.

[00:17:58]>> And then the people counter the tariffs with more juice into the economy. That's what you do. So I just have to say one thing is that in terms of people must understand the scale of this crisis. You can't aim a water pistol at a blazing inferno of unemployment. The policy, the policies that we have to do, we need a Marshall plan for this country. So I did scenarios. What would it take for us to achieve full employment 5% within 10 years?

[00:18:26]>> Um I did a Yeah. So I did the scenarios article I did with Neil Coleman recently and I did the scenarios. So we need 4.6% 6% GDP growth just to create jobs for the 750,000 people I estimate will enter the labor force over the next decade. So we've got 13 million currently unemployed. Another 750,000 7.5 million will enter the labor force. 20 million. So we need to create 19 million jobs over the next decade.

[00:18:56]Yeah. That is the scale of the crisis.

[00:18:58]This is like a war effort, you know.

[00:19:00]>> So what would that Marshall plan look like? The Marshall plan I've been talking to South Africans about it for quite a couple years. So we need every country needs a mobilizing vision and plan whether it was China, whether it was Japan, Malaysia, Rwanda, Ethiopia.

[00:19:13]We need a GDP growth target that mobilizes society. That's number one. So you see it in all these countries. Every single successful country has a GDP growth target. The problem in South Africa is that nobody's responsible for jobs. Number one, National Treasury is chasing a primary budget surplus and Reserve Bank only cares about the 3% inflation target. That's number one. I'm a big supporter number two of universal basic income. That's number two. Number three, a job guarantee. So, what we need to do this public employment um we must build upon these public employment things programs that we have. We've got the presidential employment stimulus which they're decimating. We've got the community works program, expanded public works program. I say the surplus in the unemployment insurance fund is 140 billion. Let's capitalize it with some of that. The surplus in the seats is about 60 billion. Let's capitalize it in that. Let's use the let's cancel this employment tax incentive which is a basic income grant for employers and let's put it into this public employment. How robust is uh the uh policym um environment in government such that voices such as yours and others uh to the other end of the spectrum that may not agree with you necessarily in other words the policy makers within the economic cluster of government are they exposed to this >> I was looking at an article I wrote in business day you know when president becomes president there's 9 million unemployed by the time of the next election there's 10 million. So I wrote would it take 10 million 11 million 12 million or 13 million for you to see that these policies are not working. We are now after eight years or even 17 years. This the same policies. We went from nine nothing happened for jobs. 10 million they did nothing about jobs. 11 million unemployed nothing. 12 million 13 million what are they doing? They're giving lame excuses like the war you know 13 million unemployed. That is just a crisis you know and nothing will happen. And you have to wonder there's an election in few months time they don't care about the jobs what was said about the jobs in the sona what was said about the jobs crisis in the budget the whole year January to May I have not he had one government minister say what we must do about this jobs crisis we need to have declare it a national emergency we have to have a debate in parliament about the jobs crisis you know >> and it really is a crisis especially Especially because you think about the fact that all of us know somebody who's unemployed or people who are unemployed and that one person in a family that is unemployed will be taking care of a number of family members to less >> and for African women it's 51%.

[00:22:08]Like we can't for African people it's 47.8%.

[00:22:12]>> We can't continue like this year.

[00:22:14]>> All right Dum thank you for coming through and being part of our fireside chat.

[00:22:19]never pulls any punches does in these conversations.