GET READY: BOND MARKET IS FLASHING RED!

Added: 2026-04-30

[00:00:00]Oil prices just hit the highest level since the start of the Iran war. What's going on, guys? It's Ricky, and I'm sure many of you guys have already seen the series of headlines that are being announced. UCO is up 1.15%.

[00:00:15]If we pull up USO, we should also be able to see that this thing gapped up during the overnight hours. So, what exactly is going on? Let's go ahead and jump right into it. Breaking Bret crude oil prices officially surged to the highest level of the Iran war at $119.50 a barrel. This puts Brett oil prices at the highest level since 2022.

[00:00:40]The EA has called the biggest energy security threat in history. I wonder what Trump had to say about this.

[00:00:50]President Trump says that Fed pal wants to stay as Fed because he can't get a job anywhere else. Literally, our president has clapbacks and responds to other federal officials like a six-year-old while oil prices are at the highest level.

[00:01:12]While now, and this is one thing that we've learned, I just loved how Jerome Pal stated it in today's press conference, that oil prices going up is not just more that we are paying more at the pump, but it's also taking away from the disposable income the average American doesn't have. So therefore, if they have to spend their disposable income on filling up their tank now, because now you went from paying, you know, three or what is it? 250 u $2.50 a gallon, $3 a gallon to now 4.5 to 5.5 per gallon.

[00:01:51]Now, everyone should be affected by that, right? Because now disposable income is likely to now be forced to be spent on necessities and that's for a lot of people unfortunate but it is at the pump. It's insane. But guess what?

[00:02:08]We will be hearing more about this. We talked about this last week. Isn't it funny how like the market sentiment just shifts and you know a few weeks ago it seemed like we kind of cared that inflation was going up or that the labor market was weak. But for the past two weeks, markets have not cared about it at all. Now all of a sudden, the US 30-year yield touches 5% for the first time since 2025. Now just 11 basis points from a new 18-year high. Ask your lender if you're thinking about buying a home. Is it a good sign that the 10-year Treasury is pushing back closer to 5%.

[00:02:51]No. But Ricky, then that's the Fed's fault because they should be cutting rates. The Federal Reserve cannot cut be cutting rates when inflation is going up, right? Because cutting rates is inflationary. So it's understanding that by trying to put out one fire, it's like pouring gas onto an existing fire already. They're only going to exacerbate the entire issue. Please ask if if you're even thinking about buying a home, ask your lender, what does this mean for the average consumer, for the average American? We are so consumed by the idea of these like mag seven companies that because they're performing exceptionally well that that means all of us are. No, it's a handful of companies that first off, Google killed it when it came down to earnings, well-earned, pushed up 6.95%, happy to see it. Amazon also killed it.

[00:03:41]unfortunately just didn't gap up as much, but it's beginning to give back some of its gains. 2.2%.

[00:03:48]Meta got destroyed. It's spending a little bit too much when it comes down to what investors might see as overspending into its capex and into this AI development. Uh so there's some risk or some concerns there, but that's why we're seeing a little uncertainty, but Meta actually exceeded expectation.

[00:04:06]And then Microsoft also very unfortunate. It was green, then it was red, it was green, then now it's red, down 1.3%. Again, absolutely killed it when it comes down to earnings. Don't get twisted what I'm not saying, right?

[00:04:20]It's really cool to be able to celebrate these few but large companies that are winning. Cool.

[00:04:27]But when you think about the overall outlook of our current economy, you're telling me that markets are pushing to all-time highs when we have the average American not being able to either put food on the table, be able to rent or own a home when it's so expensive to, you know, put gas into a vehicle that's, you know, essential for a lot of individuals. And now we have oil prices at the highest level since the Iran war started. If you look back at the day chart, I mean, I don't know how back how far back I'll have to zoom out to see when was the last time we were trading at these levels. 200 around 2015.

[00:05:12]Nice. At least for USO.

[00:05:16]Yeah. A little different for UCO.

[00:05:19]Nonetheless, I think it's very important to acknowledge the red flags. Not because you should panic. I've made it very clear before. I have no intention of selling any of my long-term investments fully.

[00:05:35]But what we have acknowledged is that markets are irrational. All the red flags are there. Markets are overextended. Inflation is still rising.

[00:05:45]It will only continue to rise as oil prices continue to rocket because that gets passed down to producers which then gets passed down to consumers.

[00:05:55]Eventually this irrational market will pop. But no, it comes in sentiment in waves of sentiment. For the past two to three weeks markets have not cared about it.

[00:06:07]Now all of a sudden now we care about the bond market. Now we care about rising oil prices. This was all a concern before, but now I guess there's a little bit more uncert uncertainty at these elevated levels. It's going to be very interesting to see how the market trades for the following weeks. Does it continue to push higher? possibility or do we finally break support and begin to correct as we all can pretty much agree that a correction is long overdue in a market full of irrational valuations. So again, we'll talk about this a little bit more in tomorrow's live trading session. Um and excited to see how oil holds up and what Trump actually has to say. I just really hope that the tweets that follow are not ones that look like they came from a six-year-old trying to throw shade to a 73y old man who's probably a multi-millionaire and was already looking to retire. He's not looking for another job. Trump, right?

[00:07:13]He's just not looking to be hunted like a witch with a case that, you know, your administration had to drop because there's obviously nothing there. So, I think it's important to understand the bigger picture and what's going on.

[00:07:29]Jerome Pal, for those that did not hear um or did not watch the press conference, he said he was not going to leave the committee and be involved into in the committee until the case is fully satisfied in the sense that they weren't going to continue to pursue him. So until that is done, he will stay on the committee. Um and I'm actually very impressed. I did not have that in my bingo card. Um Jerome Pow is normally very softspoken in my opinion, very level-headed and he doesn't tend to overreact, but he stood his ground and obviously it seems like it got to Trump's ego and now he's responding. So we'll see how things continue to develop, but all politics aside, the bond market and rising oil prices, consumers will pay a higher price and um it's not going to be good. So, I'll make sure that I do my part in keeping you up to date if that means markets selling off tomorrow, which again, they gapped up. So, markets might sell off tomorrow into the open and I'm excited to see if they do and maybe we can open up a few short positions and hopefully you can see it live in our live trading session.

[00:08:38]If you want to tune on in, second link down below. Appreciate your time like always. Let's make sure that we end the year on a green note. Take care of team.