Pre Market Must Watch

Added: 2026-05-06

[00:01:31]folks. We'll be starting in just one second.

[00:02:11]All right, let's get down to business.

[00:02:14][sighs] Put my camera on.

[00:02:22]Good morning, everybody. Good morning.

[00:02:24]Good morning. Welcome. Welcome. Welcome.

[00:02:26]Let's say hello to everybody. We got Devin, Stacy, Jill, James, Steve, uh Joel, Mitch, good morning, Gregory, Afad Diaz, Brendan, Arnulo, good morning.

[00:02:38]We got Steve, we got Greg, we got Frank, we got Art, we got Stefan, Tom, Moond Dog, Rihanna, Dave, Ivano, Richard, Salair, Duff, Adrian, Cheese, Great Trader, Deborah, Bernie, the Bear, Mark, Sherman, Ted. Good morning, everybody.

[00:02:54]Good morning. Welcome. We got Matt. We got Cam. Karen the Shark is here. We got Wade, Loey, Tom, Scott, Jody, Mark, Stacy, Jeff, CDW57.

[00:03:04]Is it a hump day today?

[00:03:07]Um, I think today's Thursday, right?

[00:03:09]Yeah, it is Thursday. Okay. Losing my mind for a second. Uh, Diana, Texas, Kirk, Brian, Stan, Robert, Robert, good morning. Last day in Florida. I hear you. Sandy, good morning. I wore that shirt that you, by the way, this is a shirt that Sandy had made for me. This is um uh the five patterns. You could see it right here.

[00:03:31]Thank you so much. Thank you so much. Um I appreciate it, Sandy. Very, very much.

[00:03:37]Very kind of you. Thank you, Brian. Good morning. It was nice meeting you, Cara Murray.

[00:03:43]Hope everybody's on their way home or is home or got home safely from the class.

[00:03:48]Thank you so much all for coming. It was really great. And um we're going to make it bigger and better next year. Hi, Grounder. Keith, Julio, Tucker, Azie, Walter, Belfast, John, Mike, um Dave, Jesse, Karen, John, Seth, Brian, Jason, Yuri, good morning, Desi, Pete, Hopiamatic, uh Robert, Jack, good morning, Jack, Ray, uh Kate, PF, Flyer, Chris, uh Al, Mark, uh we got, uh Randy, we got Ruth, we got uh Katherine. Good morning, Katherine.

[00:04:24]We got Sin. We got uh Minnesota Matt.

[00:04:27]Good morning, sir. Good morning. I got to put uh the miniature Lucy here in front of my computer. I still haven't done that. Thank you for for Thank you for thinking of me. Uh Henry, Jim, Genevieve, we got Illinois Grain Farmer here. Good morning, sir. Raj, Yolanda, Russ, Donna.

[00:04:46]Uh people don't like me, Robert. They Bob, they don't want to give me thumbs up. What can I tell you? We got uh RP Arpalumbo. Good morning. We got Craig.

[00:04:59]We got Ed. We got uh Charles. We got Trader Manish. Good morning. We got David. We got Gooer. Good morning, Goose. Good morning. We got Roger. Hey, Roger. It was nice meeting you face to face. We got Flying Ronin. We got Chris.

[00:05:13]We got Ivan. We got Doug. We got Don. We got Kevin. We got Stacy. We got uh Owen, Judith, Robert. We got uh Sean, we got Diamond Jen, we got uh Lisa, we got Dave, we got uh Flying Ronin.

[00:05:30]Thank you, Flying Ronin. I appreciate that. Lorski, Peanuts is here, we got Richard, we got uh Don, we got Bill, we got Ernest, we got FX, we got Eduardo, Magic Hands, we got uh SJL, we got Sandra, we got Rody. Good morning, Rody.

[00:05:46]Haven't seen you in a while. We got Bull Rider. We got Kurt. We got Bob. We got Nextgen. We got Jason. Good morning, Jason. We got uh Bob beat Tips for you. Good morning there. We got Lloyd. We got David. We got Porky's. Good morning. Good morning, everybody. We got Leo. Good morning, NextGen. You couldn't find me. What do you mean you couldn't find me? I just posted the link in the Telegram channel.

[00:06:14]NextGen says, I couldn't find it. What could you not find? Anyways, we got George, we got Daryl.

[00:06:22]So glad you're home, Richie. So glad you're home. The two three-day live workshop. Oh, thank you, Trader Mish.

[00:06:28]Thank you. I appreciate it. By the way, folks, I canled my travels. I was supposed to leave today with my wife to go to um to go to Virginia. I canceled my trip. I'm too tired. My wife is going to go without me. I'm just too exhausted. I can't I can't uh uh I'm just It's just it's uh it's just too much for me. So, I'm just going to hang out here and uh spend more time with you guys. I hope you guys are okay with that.

[00:06:54]Uh Hefe says, "Your pillows are special." Kevin Lloyd Lloyd says, "Big steak for dinner."

[00:07:02]Nice. Uh thumbs up only once. Yeah, thumbs up only once. I could I could find your office. I was supposed to visit you there yesterday. Oh, sorry about that. Next nextG, Mike. Yeah, all you had to do was email me. I would have given you the address, folks. Just FYI for anybody who's who's in here right now, during the day, the only thing I really check a lot is I have a Telegram channel with a few people. I check it once every I don't know hour or two. And I my email my email I have an email that's open on my left side and uh because I get a lot of emails and I need to get through them really really quickly. So when I'm not focused on the charts, I'm here answering emails. So, if you want to get an answer from me or if you want me to reach you quickly, the best I know it sounds counterintuitive, but the best way to reach me is via email. I don't keep my phone I don't check my phone during market hours or anything like that. I had somebody who tried to text me yesterday. They were looking for access to the door and I got to it too late. I didn't I didn't see it for an hour later. So, if you want to reach me quickly, the best way to reach me is e via email. Okay?

[00:08:07]I always respond to my email and most folks know I respond to my email pretty quickly. Thank you, Elizabeth. I I appreciate that. Yeah, I'm just exhausted. I can't I can't uh I'm just I just don't want to go anywhere. I want to stay home, you know. [gasps] So, anyway, uh exhausted, slept 9 hours, still wiped out. Yeah, me too. Yeah.

[00:08:27]Yeah. Yeah. I need the weekend. I Because I'm going to be ex You know what's why? Because if I go, I'll have a good time and I'll be exhausted on on Sunday and then I'll come here on Monday and I'll be tired and I won't trade my best and I don't want to do that. I want to trade my best. Would have uh traded with Murray. There you go. Robert Jeff says, "A big thank you to all of who attended. Uh not only was the content wonderful, I met interact." Excellent.

[00:08:49]Excellent. All right, let's start off with some pleasantries. Uh first things first, we got customer service live. Um they wanted me to post this link. They recorded their show. They're going to have a Telegram channel soon, but here is what they wanted me to share with you, the video right there. And uh here is the link to customer service live, the Cam and Gustavo show.

[00:09:11]Okay, there it is. Um I will be talking I will be talking today uh again more about One second.

[00:09:23]What the hell's going on here? I will be talking today more about um the trading pit. It's going to be very very interesting and very educational. I think you guys will will like it.

[00:09:39]And I think today will be the last day we'll be doing that. Um good. The meeting was amazing. Put faces to many names. Exactly. Captain Bee, Jimmy, good morning everybody. Gregory exhausted.

[00:09:49]Yeah, it was it was a lot. It was a lot.

[00:09:52]Next year I'm going to make a note. Not I'm not going to make any uh big plans be dur you know while we're having an event. All right let's talk this more.

[00:10:00]Let's let's get into it. So I gave you the link to customer service live.

[00:10:03]Here's the telegram channel where I'm posting stuff all day long for you.

[00:10:08]Okay.

[00:10:10]And and here uh here is the VIP room at noon. Folks, you don't want to miss the VIP room especially during earnings. We got a lot of stuff. and I'll get I'll have an earnings update for you. Uh let me just post something here.

[00:10:36]Okay.

[00:10:38]All right. How to set up ProTrader dashboard on Trading View. That's fantastic. That's fantastic.

[00:10:43]All right. Very nice. Very, very nice.

[00:10:46]And folks, here's my email address for those that don't have it.

[00:10:51]Okay. All right. Let's begin. Let's begin. We have a lot to talk about. And again, thank you so much all for uh for for coming out and being here. The first thing I want you to do is make sure you go to your gearbox right here and go to 1080p. You know, during the live broadcast, someone told me to switch over. I was at 480 and I didn't even know it. So, 1080p. And if you're there and if you benefit from us, give us one thumbs up just one time. That's that's all I ask.

[00:11:20]All right. And if you don't, that's that's okay, too, you know. Okay.

[00:11:26]So, um, as far as Fed data, what do we got on the table today? Boy, what we don't what the a better question is, what do we not have on the table today, right? GDP report, 20-year bond settlement, jobless claims. Now, I I know this this is going to be very controversial, but I think the number is going to be somewhere in the low 200,000s. Okay? I I know I know it's it's hard to imagine. Um the GDP will be pretty important, but the big number is going to be personal income. Now folks, as you know, I don't look at I don't look at numbers. I don't look at monthly numbers. I only look at year afteryear numbers. The the monthly numbers get revised too much.

[00:12:07]So, we're going to be looking at PCE price year-over-year. They're expecting 3.5, which is which is which is not great.

[00:12:16]uh that means inflation is not going down which is why interest rates are going up and core price index uh they're looking at that number to be higher so the numbers are looking to be higher by the way I'm going to uh hey Cam thank you do you guys real real quick real real quick I wanted to to say something to you interesting I know a lot of you are looking at mega caps right a lot of you are looking at mega caps do you know why I did not do a um a straddle on mega caps yesterday. Does anybody know? Can anybody tell me? Can anybody tell me why? [snorts] Do you guys remember what I said?

[00:13:02]Do you remember what I said about mags yesterday?

[00:13:07]Does anybody remember?

[00:13:09]They're going to offset each other. It's too many reporting at one time. Some are going to go up, some are going to go down. They're going to offset each other and it's going to create a grounding effect.

[00:13:21]Do you guys remember me saying that?

[00:13:24]Sean, do you remember the email I wrote you yesterday?

[00:13:28]Sean's emailed me yesterday said, "What do you think about a straddle or a strangle?" And I and my my answer was, "Well, you've got too much implied volatility and you've got too many of them reporting."

[00:13:39]Yeah, pre pre uh prepnuts. Look at MAGs.

[00:13:42]This is MAGS. This is the index of all the of all the index. It's flat. Yes.

[00:13:48]Yes. It's exactly what uh Prepnuts, that's exactly what you thought and that's exactly what it what I said and that's exactly what happened. You see there there's a [laughter] a triple effect.

[00:14:00]Do do you uh do you not see it? Uh do do does this look like a big move to you?

[00:14:08]This is Sean. Why I told you I don't want to do a time why I didn't want to do a spread yesterday. You had high implied volatility and too many. It's called the grounding effect.

[00:14:18]Yes, Stacy said you were right. Imagine that. I was right for once. All right.

[00:14:24]So, that's the problem. That's why I didn't want to do what I did. And and I was right. And again, I I didn't make any money by being right, but I was right. No soup. So, so yes, PrepNuts. I said it. You heard it. And it happened.

[00:14:37]All right, let's move on. Look at that.

[00:14:40]They're flat. They're completely flat.

[00:14:42]Doesn't mean they're going to stay flat throughout the day. If one if two of the mega caps start shifting, they're uh you know, that's what's going to happen. But I told you grounding effect. It's called the grounding effect. Okay? And it's that's what happens when you have too many basically basically why do indexes folks folks lesson here. I was right about oil yesterday too. You know, Prebnuts, you would think you would think uh you would think I would have more more people coming in here every day with me being right so often, right?

[00:15:12]Anyways, let's move on. Uh basically, why do indexes, folks, this is important. Listen. Listen. Open your ears and listen. Why are indexes less volatile than individual stocks? Because when you have too many stocks going up and down, it creates a grounding effect.

[00:15:27]Grounding effect. Grounding effect.

[00:15:30]Right there. See that?

[00:15:32]I I just didn't see it. Sean, thanks. I just wanted you to to to I didn't forget. I don't forget conversations with people. So, um, you see that?

[00:15:41]That's not great. That's not great. It offsets things. Doesn't really do anything for us one way or the other.

[00:15:47]Hey, Kirk Robert. So, yes, and you could you could see it very clearly right here. Right there. You don't need me to tell you that. Okay. Hey, Ann. Hey, Brian. All right.

[00:15:59]Um, options. We got we had a lot of stuff to We have a lot of stuff to unpack today. A lot of stuff to unpack today. Um and folks, don't forget Qualcomm and um there was something else. There was uh there was something else. It was coolcom and another one. It was um Marll. Qualcomm and Marll also came out with numbers. And right now SMH is a little bit lower. It's a little bit lower. It's not stronger right now.

[00:16:30]Okay.

[00:16:34]Yeah, it's not stronger. It's down 26.

[00:16:37]So, chips are not helping us. And we have a grounding effect and we have um S&P data coming out. So, I would be very, very, very careful right now. I would be very careful. Although, I will say this, the S&P's been going straight up since about 5:00 a.m. We've been going straight up.

[00:16:56]You can see it right here. Here.

[00:17:00]Let me delete this thing off here.

[00:17:06]Yeah, just FYI. Let me close this. Turn it off and turn it back on. It's a little laggy.

[00:17:21]Okay.

[00:17:23]Again, folks, I'm still recovering. I'm still recovering. Um, I I wasn't listening to Powell's speech. I didn't listen to his speech. I just looked at the reaction of the market. I think I'll tell you what I think about Powell. He's gluten for punishment.

[00:17:38]Hey, Gregory. Good to see you. He's gluten for punishment is what I think about Powell. He He wants to stick it I think he wants to stick it to Trump.

[00:17:49]Did you see what Trump was posting yesterday about him? It was That's such an awful that he can't get a job anywhere else. The truth is Powell can get a job anywhere he wants.

[00:17:59]Uh the head of the Fed never has a problem finding a job when he gets out of service. All right. Institutional bond market.

[00:18:09]Look at the bond market. Remember that level I told you about, folks? Now, folks, folks, pay attention. Do you remember I was telling you if bonds go down, we're not going to be in a good position? Well, guess what's happening to bonds? They're they're below that line. They've got [snorts] one more line left. Look, we got one more level right here. We broke the first level and this is the second level. Now, folks, you may want to pay attention to this level right here, which is 8424.

[00:18:39]For several years, we've been bouncing off of that level. Look, look. This is weekly data. I want to show you something. Look.

[00:18:53]See how we're getting towards that level? We got to be very, very careful.

[00:18:58]We got to be very, very careful.

[00:19:02]Interest rates are going up. Yes, he plans to return to the board of governors. That's what I said. He's um he's gluten for punishment, right?

[00:19:12]Gluten for punishment.

[00:19:15]All right. [sighs and gasps] US dollar US dollar is going sideways. There's no directional bias right now on the US dollar. Okay, crude oil. Crude oil went higher um filled this gap. I do you remember I drew this line for you yesterday right here and I said if there's a major resistance here and I told you that we're past 60% and the odds are it's going to continue filling the gap. It was only yesterday.

[00:19:43]Mhm. You see that? So, we're right in this area now. I Does anybody know that's what I said? That's exactly what I just said. gluten for punishment. Does anybody Does anybody know why energy prices went down in the middle of the night? I do not. I've completely lost track of uh I've completely lost track of the of the where we are with this war. I I I'm I'm uh I've moved past it. Like, you know how I move past um tariffs? I've moved past the the back and forth. So, and I'm not I'm not asking this not a trick question. Uh against the norms. Powell's one vote will not have an impact on the No, of course not. Walsh. No, it's he's not going to have a major impact, but it'll be interesting to see he'll stay in there. Um, so again, I don't know exactly why energy prices decided to go down 2%. It must be something positive, but before that, they went up. So something must have happened in the middle of the night. Uh, it's been to detriment of our economy. Child, childish, grossly overpaying for construction implies under the table deals went on.

[00:20:50]Um, SJL, he he was cleared. He was cleared of that of that of that uh construction.

[00:20:58]Okay, SJL, please stop reading stupid stuff on YouTube. Please, just stop.

[00:21:03]Please stop. I'm begging you. Please stop. Please.

[00:21:09]Do you guys know what happened with that construction project? It was a project that was finished five years ago.

[00:21:17]That investigation came and went. It was closed last week. Let's at least be factual, SJL. Let's be factual. Okay.

[00:21:26]Okay.

[00:21:28]Gold. Gold is sitting right at the VWAP right here. Not really doing anything.

[00:21:33]The markets are waiting right now.

[00:21:35]They're waiting right now. They're waiting. I don't know what they're waiting for, but they're waiting for something right now. There's not a lot of clarity here. Bitcoin, same thing.

[00:21:42]Just sitting right here at the VWOP.

[00:21:44]Very, very little. Uh, very little movement. Very, very, very little movement. Okay, folks. If you're coming in right now, just real real quick, we have a lot of people coming in. Please make sure you go to 1080p.

[00:21:58]Make sure you're watching at 1080p and give us one thumbs up.

[00:22:03]Yeah, I don't mind post folks posting stuff here. Just be be factual about it.

[00:22:07]You know, you know that investigation ended last week. You know, it was announced that it's over without anything.

[00:22:13]Okay.

[00:22:15]All right. Let's put some links on.

[00:22:19]All right. Here's customer service live, the Camman Gustavo show for people who are coming in here right now. Hey, John.

[00:22:25]Good to see you. It was actually really good to meet you, too. Um, here is the Telegram channel.

[00:22:37]Here is the link to the VIP room.

[00:22:43]Good morning, Jeff.

[00:22:45]And here is a link to a um a video from yesterday that Cam wanted me to share.

[00:22:54]Here it is.

[00:22:56]And Cam, you go ahead and tell us the um tell us your agenda for the day. Okay.

[00:23:01]Thank you, sir. Okay, folks. Make sure you're watching at 1080p. Okay. China.

[00:23:07]What is China doing?

[00:23:09]China's doing nothing. It's coming right back into this level. It's putting some pressure. We huffed. We puffed. Notice something. Bond market headed lower. US dollar choppy with some downward bias right here. It's not really much going on. Crude oil just kind of sitting right here. This is not a great place for crude oil to sit. And by the way, just want you to know, look at my levels.

[00:23:31]This is I I drew these levels yesterday for you. How how well did they hold?

[00:23:37]Okay.

[00:23:39]All right.

[00:23:50]Nothing. Nothing. All right. Let's talk about catalysts. Let's talk about catalysts.

[00:24:02]So investors digested earnings report from big US tech companies and the latest development in Iran war and then Minnesota Matt and others if you guys have catalysts please uh there we go there's Minnesota Matt mags chips healthc care just about everything today right fed mags chips energies energy definitely energies uh real estate Yep. Japan. Where is Japan? Minnesota.

[00:24:33]Matt, what happened with Japan? I missed it. I'm going to check it out right now.

[00:24:39]Belfast John is serious in the S&P 500.

[00:24:44]No, let's move on from there. Uh, I'm so happy for all the new members. Trading Pub, Roger Reports. Thank you. Thank you, Eagle Beagle. I appreciate it.

[00:24:52]Thank you, sir. All right.

[00:24:55]Google climbed over 6%. Amazon gained more than 2%. Uh Meta slumped over 8%.

[00:25:02]Microsoft slipped more than 1%. You have a mixed bag of nuts.

[00:25:06]And remember, we have a couple of big reports coming out.

[00:25:11]We have a couple of big reports coming out at 8:30. We got a triple whammy here. Okay, let's see how that goes.

[00:25:18]Uh oh, here. Maybe I can here. I could read about this. The latest on oil.

[00:25:23]Sentiment also improved as oil prices reversed. And okay, here we go. An early jump fueled by fears that US could resume military action against Iran to break the negotiation deadlock. There's I didn't know we were in negotiation. Ax here reported that President Trump is set to receive a briefing on Thursday.

[00:25:39]That's today on new options for potential military. Now we're talking.

[00:25:43]Military action is the only solution here. Only solution. And that US Central Command has drawn a plan for a short and powerful Now we're talking. Thank God.

[00:25:53]Finally, somebody's coming to their senses. a a military. The only way The only way we're going to uh The only way The only way we're going to um get past this is with violence and force. And I'm not a violent guy, but I'm telling you, the only way we get past this is through violence and force.

[00:26:19]You can't negotiate with Iran. And I keep saying that over and over and over again, and I'm going to keep saying that forever. If we want to negotiate with Iran, this is going to be a very, very long and difficult war. We need to hit him hard, and we need to hit them heavy.

[00:26:35]Okay?

[00:26:36]Period. That's all there is to it. Don't get soft on me now. Okay? Uh investors are awaiting a raft of US economic data.

[00:26:46]Uh, Apple earnings are still on uh on uh and I've been saying that since day one.

[00:26:54]We got to hit them hard and heavy. You can't negotiate with Iran. You can't negotiate with Iran. It's like me trying to negotiate. No, no, forget that. All right. Um, Pterodine 19% big, big move.

[00:27:09]GE plunged more than 13%. Robin Hood sank over 13%. NXP jumped more than 25% and was the top percentage gainer.

[00:27:20]Very nice. Again, what does what do chip stocks go what are chip stocks doing?

[00:27:26]They're going up all the chip stocks better than expected. Uh didn't the US set a policy back in the day that we didn't ne don't negot thank you.

[00:27:35]Exactly. Exactly. We can't Exactly. No troops on the ground, deep assets, close the entrance from the air. hit him and hit them hard.

[00:27:46]Hit them and hit them hard. And I keep saying this is inevitable. This would have happened. You can't blame President Trump for doing this. The only thing I blame him for is trying to negotiate with these people. You can't negotiate with them. He He wants to negotiate with everybody. He's a negotiator. You can't negotiate with these people.

[00:28:05][sighs and gasps] Exactly. Right. Thank you.

[00:28:11]That's what I just said. Well, I don't know about beating them, but you can't negotiate with these people. You You just can't. It It It's count It's counterintuitive, but you can't.

[00:28:22]We tried negotiating them with Obama.

[00:28:24]Did it work out really well?

[00:28:27]All right. March housing starts unexpectedly rose 10%, 15-month high.

[00:28:32]This is very, very good. 15-month high, but building permits fell to a seven-month low. So to me, to me it looks like um to me to me it looks like it looks very much like contractors were getting optimistic again and then and they started building again and now they're they're the permits are falling off. So we're kind of in in this influx right now.

[00:29:01]Oh, Trump threw it out, huh?

[00:29:04]I don't know.

[00:29:06]I don't know. No, I don't want to get I don't want this to turn again into some political nonsense. Thanks, Matt. I appreciate that. All I'm saying is, mark my words, we got to hit him hard and heavy or we're going to be in this drama for the next 5 years.

[00:29:20]I I want to see who doesn't agree with me on this. Who really thinks we're going to get somewhere negotiating with Iran?

[00:29:28]V.

[00:29:32]All right.

[00:29:34]All right. As widely expected, Federal Reserve uh uh left the rates alone. By the way, I'm not seeing any movement from the stock market at all right now at all. Like no movement from the stock market. Okay.

[00:29:49]Uh rates unchanged meeting revealed a widening split over the outlook of policy uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. Do you remember what I told you? They have a way out.

[00:30:00]Middle East conflict. That's all they have to say.

[00:30:04]Uh, we'll let us do a deal with them.

[00:30:08]Uh, operation boom boom. Uh, we'll never know. It was working deal and under Obama Trump threw it out.

[00:30:18]Exactly, Matt. Exactly.

[00:30:21]You can't negotiate with these people.

[00:30:23]You just can't. Okay. 189,000. What?

[00:30:27]189,000. Hold on a second. Hold on.

[00:30:33]Yeah. So, pretty much nothing. 200 close to 200,000 basically 189. Close enough to 200,000.

[00:30:41]So, not not bad at all. Market is cooling off a little bit based on this report right here. Let's look see what the bond market's doing. Bond market's doing nothing as we expected.

[00:30:54]SPY Oops. SPY is moving down on this news. down on this news.

[00:31:02]So, let's see what else we got out here real quick. Personal income.

[00:31:08]I don't have anything. I got to steal from Matt my data again. He he stole my trade exchange access.

[00:31:15]Uh, they're not going to abide by any deals, chill. They're not going to abide by anything. They're only The only thing they're going to abide by is their own their own fanatical craziness.

[00:31:26]And folks, I have no problem with with people from Iran at all whatsoever. I have tons of Iranian friends, which all happen to agree with me. I'm talking about the fanatics, the people who the military folks.

[00:31:39]I'm not talking about Iran. Iran is wonderful, beautiful people. It's like it's like blaming Russians for what Putin is doing. You you can't do that.

[00:31:47]But uh the military there is out of whack.

[00:31:51]All right. So 8 to 4 they're having contradictory information. All right.

[00:32:00]Say if order uh open the street they will not will talk about nuclear but not until then.

[00:32:08]Trump will not didn't negotiate first.

[00:32:10]He went with ne Netanyahu bombs.

[00:32:14]All right. Everybody seems to a agree with everything I'm saying. So I there's really nothing to talk about here. You you can't negotiate with these people.

[00:32:22]Okay. GDP. All right. Look at this.

[00:32:26]The the number the number GDP was two.

[00:32:29]That's not bad. Not bad. Personal consumption expenditures 1.6. See, the numbers are not that bad. They're really not that bad. That's a pretty reasonable number on GDP. Jobless claims 19 90,000.

[00:32:45]That's fine. That's right around 200.

[00:32:47]And uh again, personal income. Okay, here we go. I want to see the monthly numbers. I want to see this number below 3.5 is what I want to see.

[00:32:58]We'll get there in a minute. We'll get there in a minute.

[00:33:08]All right.

[00:33:12]All right. Let's continue. Fed Jerome Jerome Powell said he will stay at the central bank as the governor of his term as chair ends. After my term ends, I will continue to serve as the governor for a period of time to be determined.

[00:33:25]I'm telling you, he's gluten for punishment.

[00:33:28]Uh US rate futures are pricing in absolutely nothing. Nothing's going to happen now and nothing's going to happen in June uh because of this war. Apple, SanDisk, Western Digital, Lily Merc, Mastercard, Caterpillar. Uh, we got a lot of stuff happening. I will give an earnings update today. A guy who returned from a bear.

[00:33:51]Let's continue, folks. Let's continue.

[00:33:52]The market's coming off. The market's coming off. Let's see if this report is No, still the same. All right, I'll check in in a few minutes. Uh, US US Department of GDP is coming out. PCE is coming out. Personal spending is coming out.

[00:34:14]Uh never make a deal. That means anything Jack military gluten for punishment.

[00:34:28]That's what I just said. Gluten for punishment. [snorts] Uh Chicago PMI jobless claims. Europe is down.11 pretty flat actually this morning as investors assess the latest development. Middle East digesting uh fresh economic data.

[00:34:41]Uh China closed slightly higher today supported by strength in the tech sector upbeat domestic factory activity.

[00:34:47]Technology stocks rallied on Thursday.

[00:34:50]Look at that. Not bad. Not bad.

[00:34:53]And Japan closed lower today as worries about the prolonged Middle East conflict missed corporate earnings. Oil prices rose in Tokyo. Fear of escalation.

[00:35:01]President Trump was set to receive a briefing. We'll see what this briefing does, but we need to hit them and hit them hard fast. Alphabet is up. Amazon is up. Qualcomm is up. Um, Meta is down.

[00:35:12]Microsoft is down. Grounding effect.

[00:35:15]Grounding effect.

[00:35:18]All right. Grounding effect. All right.

[00:35:22]Thank you for the catalyst, folks. Let's talk about catalysts and let's talk about market sentiment. We still have a very, very markets coming down right now. We still have a very very um we still have a very very very vulnerable index. Extremely extremely vulnerable index here.

[00:35:43]All right.

[00:35:46]Very very vulnerable.

[00:35:50]Very very very vulnerable. Even here look at the S&P 500 the 50-day line only 50%. You've you've got a lot of vulnerability here my friends. You have a lot of vulnerability. Also, I hate to say I told you so.

[00:36:11]Now it's 130.

[00:36:14]A week ago it was 329.

[00:36:17]A few days before that it was 900.

[00:36:22]April 17th we are now at 130. But look at the downside number. It's increasing.

[00:36:28]That's a problem. That is a problem, my friends. That is a problem. Okay.

[00:36:34]Volatility. What is volatility doing?

[00:36:36]Nothing. Volatility is not the the war is bye-bye to this. The only thing is energy prices still staying in this area. That's actually very good. I'm going to pose this for you. Volatility is very stable right now.

[00:36:49]That's good.

[00:36:54]I'm going to post this for you right now.

[00:37:37]Yeah, GDP 2%. Yeah, market. The market right now is just kind of sitting there.

[00:37:43]It's not really doing very much. It's in our range yesterday, which I'll talk about in a few minutes.

[00:37:49]All right, let's continue. So, volatility is not looking bad. I I want to post a screenshot of this for you.

[00:38:04]Yeah. Not really reacting very much.

[00:38:09]Okay.

[00:38:16]Volat volatility is not reacting very much to the war which means the only thing that is really important is price of crude oil as far as the war is concerned.

[00:38:42]Yeah. The market is not doesn't care about this war right now. The market just cares about price of crude oil.

[00:38:48]Put to call ratio. We're we're heading higher. We're heading higher, which means there's more put buyers coming in.

[00:38:55]Okay, we're still not overextended, but we're going in from extreme call buyers to put buyers, which is why this number right here is now at 226. And I mentioned to you yesterday, I mentioned to you yesterday that this number was the highest number we've had in quite some time. Let me show you.

[00:39:18]You see this number right here? I'm just going to flip this. Keep an eye on that number.

[00:39:28]You see that? I'm just going back. All I do want to do is find out when we were back in the 200s.

[00:39:37]Oh, right there. March 30th. March 30th.

[00:39:41]Okay. March 30th.

[00:39:44]March 30th.

[00:39:46]And here, where is it? Where's my momentum level? And my momentum levels. You see how it's going from bulls to bears? This is bulls. This is bears. This is bears coming in. If this continues going higher, we're going to get into some selling pressure. This is bullish. This is bearish. I'm just telling you what I'm showing you. Now, it can very easily stop here and just not do anything.

[00:40:13]Okay?

[00:40:15]It would be very easy not to do anything. But we're still moving higher.

[00:40:18]I want to point I want to uh send this to you.

[00:40:32]Right there.

[00:40:38]put to call ratio is now traveling towards the b the bears getting a bit too excited. We are not there yet but heading into that direction. Be cautious. Markets market are very vulnerable here.

[00:41:04]Now we're moving towards the puts and we still have 52% of stocks. Sellers are starting to come in and we only have 52% of stocks in the NASDAQ above the two the 200 day.

[00:41:17]I'm going to post this for you.

[00:41:21]This is really important stuff folks because this is telling you the the health of the market from the inside.

[00:41:27]Okay.

[00:41:33]While the puts while the put buyers are getting emboldened, we still only have 52% of the QQQ trading above the 200 day line. Very vulnerable market.

[00:41:57]And I'm gonna also post this because somehow someway I feel like this is going to bite us in the butt here. Let me go to today.

[00:42:08]That was 3 weeks ago 226. I'm going to post this for you because we need to have a record of everything because you know people come here and they you never said this and you never said that. Okay, here we go.

[00:42:24]highest number of stocks making one month low since beginning of this month or end of last month, however you want to look at it. Okay, this is important.

[00:42:38]This is important.

[00:42:41]Culpable. Let me ask you a question.

[00:42:43]Let's say institutions do rebalance at the end of the month. How would that impact you?

[00:42:50]How would that impact you?

[00:42:54]Tell me, Javad. See you later, my friend. Have a great great time. We'll see you later.

[00:43:03]How How would that How would that Look at that. That's not good. This is not good. Not good at all. This is not good. The highest number in a month. Do you see the picture that I'm building here for you?

[00:43:18]We have a lot of vulnerability.

[00:43:20]All right.

[00:43:22]spy. What is spy doing? The spy is trying to break out here, right? But not this is not really like this is a move right here. This is a a move. This is a directional move. This is just consolidation up down. This is just consolidation.

[00:43:39]Look at where we're at right at the 8day EMA. And I believe we're going to cool off right till right here to this area right here. Um look at equal weighted spy. Let's take a look at it.

[00:43:52]Look, this is what the market looks like when you take out all that capitalized This is what the market really looks like broadbased when you remove the market cap element.

[00:44:16]Okay.

[00:44:19]All right. Let's let's focus on questions here that impact today's trading session. That's really all I care about, folks. Let me explain to you what I'm doing here. Maybe if I explain what I'm doing here. What I'm trying to do is get a good idea of what the market is going to do by putting all of this into my processor in my head and going through it. I don't care about end of the month. I don't care about any of that. I care about how is the market going to react today.

[00:44:46]If I'm not talking about it, then it's not relevant. Okay, I'm trying to keep you guys on the straight and narrow. And by the way, we're trading now below the 15-day EMA on the broad market. Okay.

[00:45:03]Yes, Doug. That's exactly what it's doing. Look at that. We're already there. Look at this. We're already at the Remember I told you when we were doing this, we're going to come down to the 15. The equal weighted one is already there. SMH SMH has not been going higher. It's been going higher last few days after breaking down, but it's not making a new high. Be cautious.

[00:45:22]This This is very vulnerable. Very vulnerable. I will say this, this sector is the only sector that could stand behind the numbers because the numbers have been just fantastic. But I still believe it's going to cool off. Mags, most important thing. Look at MAGs.

[00:45:38]Mags. Mags are not going anywhere. So, I'm going to post this for you guys.

[00:45:44]Look at this.

[00:45:54]Four mags came out with earnings last night. First in history.

[00:46:02]The index is up 050 right now. Not even 1%.

[00:46:10]All right. There's not a lot going on here, folks. There's just not a lot going on here. Let me look at mags right now. Mags are actually right now only are down 21%. They're not up, they're down.1%. Let me let me correct that.

[00:46:26]In real time, mags are actually down 21.15 right now.

[00:46:38]Here, look.

[00:46:42]Capiche.

[00:46:47]All right.

[00:46:49]All right. Personal income. Let's look at it.

[00:46:57]Survey says.

[00:47:00]All right. 3.2 3.2.

[00:47:05]Well, guess what, folks? Personal income price index 3 2.8 8 3.5 3.5 Inflation is going down. Inflation is going down. No, it's not. Probably because of the war, but this is not good. I'm going to post this here.

[00:47:41]If anyone tells tells you that inflation is going down, show them a the chart of TLT and then show them this graph.

[00:47:56][laughter] You see that?

[00:48:05]Thank you. Thank you, uh, Sandra.

[00:48:11]All right. Flat, flat, flat.

[00:48:15]Mags are not up. They're flat. And the spy right now is up4.

[00:48:27]This not a not a Does this look This is daily chart. Does this look like a major breakout to you? No. No.

[00:48:37]No. Okay.

[00:48:43]We talked about RSP. We talked about market momentum. Let's talk about levels. Okay. Let's talk about levels and see if I have to change my levels from overnight or not. Okay.

[00:49:12]No, not I didn't say gluten. I said glut [laughter] gluten. Glutton. Glutton for punishment.

[00:49:19]Not gluten. Glutton. Sorry if I'm pronouncing it uh the wrong way.

[00:49:26]Glutton for punishment. All right, let's look at our four time frames.

[00:49:34]Let's look at SPY.

[00:49:37]Let's look at five minute.

[00:49:39]All right, we're going to have to adjust our levels. We're going to have to adjust our levels.

[00:49:52]I'm just going to delete this and start from scratch.

[00:49:57]Okay, let's do this.

[00:50:03]Sometimes it's best just to start from scratch.

[00:50:16][snorts] All right, Gregory said exhibit one and two. You made your case. There you go.

[00:51:02]I just posted this for you and uh HD quality. Carla, in case you're here, by the way, Carla, as soon as I started posting this for you, I stop I stopped hearing anything from you. Not even any feedback. Get let it let me know if this is working for you.

[00:51:21]Let me just start from scratch here.

[00:51:22]It'll be easier. Too much stuff going on here. Okay, there.

[00:51:32]There.

[00:51:35]Those are nice, clean levels actually.

[00:51:38]Really good levels. There's one more here.

[00:51:44]You like my supporting evidence? Okay.

[00:51:47]Yeah. I don't If I say something, I'm going to back it up. If I can't back it up, then why the hell am I going to say it? Doesn't make any Yeah, that's what I said, Jeff. The gas prices are down because I think that our president is supposed to come up with something today.

[00:52:16]Thanks, Jill. I appreciate that. Yeah, folks. And and Carla, nobody here's picking on you. We're not I want you. I I appreciate you. And everybody here is happy that you It was a good idea. Just so you're just so you know, this is Nobody It was smart. It was a good idea.

[00:52:31]I'm glad you said it. I'm doing it now.

[00:52:34]Just like you asked.

[00:52:44]>> [snorts] >> All right.

[00:52:53]All right.

[00:52:58]Uh got down and that does not happen overnight. Gas prices are down. Well, I think you mean energy crude oil prices.

[00:53:04]Crude oil prices. They're down because I think Trump is supposed to come and say something about a military action, which is what I really want to see. The faster we hit them, the the less this will last. They want to they want, you know, Iran knows that every day this goes by, you know, it's hurting us financially and or the world financially and that's what they're banking on levels HD quality.

[00:53:30]Anyway, I just have my own opinions on this um IWM. Let's do IWM.

[00:53:39]Let me delete these levels here.

[00:53:49]H oil prices. Interesting. I haven't even checked around here to be honest with you.

[00:54:19]Okay, let me give you this level.

[00:54:35]And then let me give you um let me give you um SMH. I always do SMH. By the way, notice something interesting. You know what? I'm not going to give you levels for SMH because these levels on SMH actually. Yeah. I I just made a change here.

[00:54:53]made a change there. Very minor changes, but I'm making changes. I'm making changes. That's there. Yeah, little minor changes. Okay, that's that's good.

[00:55:05]I can work with that.

[00:55:08]Uh $431. I think we're paying around low low $4 around here. Does anybody remember what gas prices were here um when you guys were here last few days?

[00:55:18]He is not wasting 18 hour plane ride by his vice president other to negotiate to fly over there and have Iran's not give an inch. Exactly. Finally, he's Exactly.

[00:55:28]Thank you, Gregory. That's exactly what I would do. Don't waste your time trying to negotiate with these people.

[00:55:34]Don't wait. That's the smartest thing I've heard him say in in in quite some time. That's exactly Don't give Don't give in to these people.

[00:55:43]Make them beg for negotiations.

[00:55:46]That's what I would do. I mean, maybe I should maybe Clyde should be president.

[00:55:51]SMH levels.

[00:55:54]He likes Look, I I only can compliment him for trying to negotiate with them, but you can't negotiate with these people. HD quality.

[00:56:04]All right.

[00:56:06]Yeah. About about No. Yeah. About 420.

[00:56:10]Exactly, Murray. About 420.

[00:56:15]Mhm.

[00:56:20]Five bucks in Indiana. Jesus Christ.

[00:56:23]What are you guys?

[00:56:28]$7. Yeah, that's what I heard. Los Angeles is over $7.

[00:56:37]All right, let me give you guys stocks that I'm looking at. Let's look at mags real quick.

[00:56:44]Nothing. Look at this folks. Look at Mags overnight. So this is what's funny, right? This is if I told you that Mags had their biggest one day earnings in history. Would you would you expect it to look like this? Look up down flat.

[00:57:02]Look at this. Since 8:00 at night, flat.

[00:57:05]Look at that. I'm going to post that for you. I think this will be eye opening for some of you. And I got to get out of here.

[00:57:19]Mags did not move since 8:00 p.m. last night.

[00:57:26]Check out this chart.

[00:57:29]That's crazy, right? You would think they'd be like this all all night. Nope.

[00:57:33]Barely moving. Barely moving.

[00:57:37]All right, let's now talk about uh let's now talk about stocks on my list. BSX, BSX, CSGP.

[00:57:52]I did predict they were cancel each other out. And uh they canceled each other out. Mags right now are look look.

[00:57:58]Hey guys, look at this.

[00:58:02]Talk about canceling each other out.

[00:58:03]Look at this.

[00:58:05]That's a daily overnight chart change from yesterday.

[00:58:09]03% Talk about canceling each other out, right?

[00:58:16]Yeah.

[00:58:18]CSGP, this has been on my short list for several weeks.

[00:58:22]GIS, I got to get out of here. GIS, still on my watch list. MDT, still [snorts] on my watch list.

[00:58:34]I think we took a little scalp loss on this one yesterday. I think um I think it was this one. Maybe it was a different one.

[00:58:43]Yeah. Where's President Clyde?

[00:58:46]Tony says, "Good morning. Got to give this channel a thumbs up." Thank you, sir. Excellent earnings getting washed out by crazy news. I told you yesterday that the mags are going to offset themselves. If you think being flat overnight after having the biggest earnings is not offsetting itself, then I don't know what is.

[00:59:04]You see, folks, this is why you come here for little tidbits like that.

[00:59:08]You know how many people You know how many people did straddles and Sean, do you know how many people did straddles and strangles yesterday?

[00:59:18]Think about that for a minute.

[00:59:22]Uh BSX was the loser. Was that Was that Was that the one? Okay.

[00:59:27]I I don't I just don't remember.

[00:59:30]I know we did so many I know we did so many uh we do so many scalps in there.

[00:59:34]We had one loser and two winners yesterday.

[00:59:38]Lily.

[00:59:42]Oh, I think Lily had earnings or something. Yeah, Lilyy's up right now.

[00:59:45]Huge. Yeah, this is not a This is Or maybe they got upgraded or something.

[00:59:49]This is not a regular move. This is a This Remember, fundamental always writes technicals. This is a fundamental move.

[00:59:56]Did Lily have earnings or something?

[00:59:57]Hold on.

[01:00:00]Yeah, right here. Lily has earnings.

[01:00:02]Don't Don't go trading stocks that have earnings. Don't do that.

[01:00:06]You know better than that. RTX still below the 200.

[01:00:16]Vetel.

[01:00:20]Earnings. Earnings. You can't trade stocks on earnings.

[01:00:27]Yeah. Intel kicking butt. That's right.

[01:00:34]It did. It did turn into a winner.

[01:00:35]Karen, you're right. But I I did not have a winner. I had a loser. I I don't make my winners turn into I don't make my losers turn into winners winners magically. That for me, if it's a loser, it's a loser. CLX and McDonald's and McDonald's going down is not a great great sign for our economy. By the way, everybody should know that. Um long stocks, Starbucks, still a lot of stocks are overextended like this one.

[01:01:01]Day trade only, day trade mode only, overextended. Remember yesterday if I tell you it's a day trading stock, you set your alert at the VWAP. If it's a swing trading stock, you set your alert at the 8 8 day EMA. Remember we talked about that extensively.

[01:01:21]We talked about this STM. We talked about it yesterday.

[01:01:31]Oh, all right. Rainard, good for you.

[01:01:33]Good for you.

[01:01:37]All right, I got to figure out something with that raw store. It's not hitting our stop loss and it's not hitting our profit target. I'm probably going to give it just a few more days if that continues.

[01:01:47]I need to get you guys a new trade in the pit today. I'm just talking out loud. United Healthcare, Etsy.

[01:01:56]I like Etsy still.

[01:01:58]day trade mode only. High volume, overextended from the 8day VWOP. If it was a swing trade, it would be the 8day EMA. Same setup, different entry.

[01:02:10]WDC. See, this is overextended, but it's got volume. It has volume. It's overextended, but it has volume.

[01:02:20]Day trade these stocks. Don't swing trade these stocks. Please do not do not swing trade. Do not swing trade this stock. This is a day trading stock. I always tell you if it's a day trading stock or a swing trading stock.

[01:02:33]This is a swing trading stock. It's at the 8day EMA. This is not a day trading stock. This is a swing trading stock.

[01:02:42]I always tell you if it's a day trading stock or a swing trading stock.

[01:02:48]Uh this can go either way.

[01:02:51]Not that deviated just yet, but volume's not high, so you could probably swing it. ADM.

[01:02:57]All right. And this is a day trading stock. A lot of stocks are still overextended, folks. Folks, here's what I'm going to tell you. Um, I think the market is going to open up very like this. And I think it's going to set a tone. I think it's going to set a tone.

[01:03:13]I'm also starting Here's my other here's my other um concern and and this is something I want you guys to think about. So, here's MAGS.

[01:03:24]Here's the change from yesterday.

[01:03:27]Can you imagine Sean doing a strangle straddle on this?

[01:03:32]Hey Kevin, too bad you weren't able to stop by my office yesterday. I'm so sorry about that. Send me email next time. Send me email. So good to see you, my friend. It was great. Great hanging out with you and your wife.

[01:03:43]All right, spy. What is the spy doing?

[01:03:46]SPY is up 23 right now. Just kind of in this little range. But here's my question to you. Here's the daily chart of the spy. Okay, this is the daily chart of the spy right here. We've been going sideways now. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 days. Earnings have been fantastic.

[01:04:07]The volatility has been coming down.

[01:04:10]This has not been going up. So my question to you is this. What is the catalyst that's going to make the spy go up? You know what? I think it is finality of the war. Crude oil going down. We're nowhere near there yet.

[01:04:25]Hence, we're going to stay up here or consolidate and go lower. Okay? Be very very careful, folks. And remember, shortterm short-term price action short-term price action is starting to momentum is starting to cool off. The excitement, this excitement is waning off. Okay? This excitement right here is waning off. Remember something, World War II, end of war. World War III, end of war. If we don't get that end of war, what do you think is going to happen here? I think we all know what's going to happen here. Be careful, folks. I'll see you in the VIP room. I got to head to work. I got to head to work to to do the highf flyers. If you have any questions, roger at rogerscott.com.

[01:05:12]Thank you all. I'm not I don't if I if I hurt anybody's feelings with political commentary, it's only be I'm only talking about it in terms of how it's impacting this war. And I think everybody knows exactly what I think.

[01:05:24]We need to hit them and we need to hit them hard. Hard. Hard. Not threaten to hit them. Hit them and hit them hard.

[01:05:31]You can put that on my t-shirt. We need to hit Iran and we need to hit him hard.

[01:05:35]Okay. Bye, folks. We'll have a great great day. I'll see you all soon.

[01:05:42]Be careful, folks. Be careful. Be careful. This market is very vulnerable right now. It's I'm having some trouble with my longs right now, which means it's vulnerable. I'll see you later. Bye folks. Have a great day. I'll see you later. Thanks for cheering me up this morning. I'm in a better mood and I feel better. And Sandy, again, thank you for the uh t-shirt with the five pattern.

[01:06:00]Very sweet of you. Very kind of you.

[01:06:02]I've met some amazing people.