When markets exhibit extreme greed in certain sectors (like semiconductors), investors should trim positions in those overvalued areas and rotate capital into sectors experiencing extreme fear or oversold conditions, as these represent better long-term buying opportunities with higher upside potential.
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Deep Dive
This Euphoria Has Got Me Nervous! Here's What I'm Trimming..Added:
Hey guys, welcome to a new video. So, the market is all over the place, honestly, at the moment. Um, chips and semis are going absolutely parabolic, it seems. Look at Chippy. Look at this move. Wower. If you're in Chippy like I am, congratulations. I'm sure you're very happy. It's gone over $80. It was at 50. My average uh cost price is around 56. So, killing it. Socky, same thing. Over 100 bucks now. SPCI, this thing. I was trying to get into this, but it just didn't dip like where I wanted it. I didn't get into it at this point. And look at that space with the upcoming SpaceX IPO. I'm sure that's got a part of it all T. Look at that. That looks terrible. But if you go year to date, I love it. Um, the reason being because you can buy extreme fear, you can buy in fear and then it's got a lot of upside opportunity. You could, it captures a lot of upside. It's got great holdings. So, I just want to show you my alt position right now. Actually, this is in Snowball Analytics, by the way.
And I've got a 10% discount code. I've been using Snowball Analytics for about 6 months, and it's only in the past couple of months I've been really getting into it. It's like so good, but it takes time to get used to it. Anyway, I've got a 10% discount code in my description or in the comments. So, if you want to get involved with that, I would recommend it cuz it's pretty awesome. It helps me out a lot. Um, but anyway, this is my alty position. Uh so I was started buying a little bit early when we're in fear and then we got into extreme fear and I was buying when we're in extreme fear at the end of March was buying heavily um and now in a capital gain on a high distribution ETF. So this pays out 70 75% and yet I'm in a capital gain of 13% and of course I'm making weekly distributions on top of that. So I'm in 25% uh total profit. Um and I love it. I think it's great things the best high distribution ETFs. It's very risky, very volatile, but I think it's the best in the game at, you know, compared to Alti from YieldMax or uh any of the others. I think it's really good.
Nuke, Nuclear's backup. I bought the dip on that at about $41, just under 41.
So, loads of things doing well like AMDW absolutely crushing it. And that's what I'm talk about today. I'm going to talk about some of these single stock ETFs, some that are opportunities, and one position that I've actually taken profits on. I've sold a small position of one of my bigger holdings. That's what I'm going to talk to you about today. But of course, this is not financial advice. This channel is purely based on my thoughts as I navigate my own personal investment journey. Please, please, please always do your own research. So, yeah, continuing on that thought, AMDW, I mean, look at this chart. Let's go year or it's just nuts. Look at that. That is This scares me a little bit because it's getting very euphoric. like AMD just crossed over the $500 uh share price and it is just been absolutely nuts. Whilst look at these opportunities in the market like Coinbase, Uber, Microsoft, Meta, some of these are down near their 52- week lows.
So a lot of the stock market is like it's got a split personality right now like software um some consumable type stocks are just really having a rough time. there are kind of not all-time lows but like I said near 52- week lows and there are lots of opportunities in these kind of stocks or single stock ETFs whereas you look at your AMDs and your chippies and your socksies and you're like oh maybe I need to start taking profits on these how long can this really go on for and you know that's what I kind of been looking at looking at my portfolio look at Micron if anyone holds Micron congratulation it it went over it hit here hit hit it's $895 a share there.
Now, I bought in at 108. My issue with Micron is I bought five shares. It wasn't a lot. Um, but I sold two of them along the way. And now, uh, I wish I hadn't because it crossed over $900 a share, which is nuts. It's like an eight or 9x from where I from where I bought it at. Uh, up 520%. Rocket Lab, obviously. Space doing Space Sector.
Maybe it's to do with the IPO. Maybe Space is just really, I don't know, having an incredible time. It looks like the next few years in space and putting data centers, AI infrastructure into space is going to have a big part in the AI cycle. So, we'll see what happens with that. But again, pretty risky, pretty volatile. And then third place, got my AMDW position up 240. So, we'll just go into this one and we'll look at where I'm at. But the fact that AMDW crossed overund $106 a share like like I was buying it when it was like $43, you know, like I've got an average price of I don't I think um my brokerage is now counting the distributions to give me my average cost price. It didn't used to do that, but it seems to be doing that recently. So anyway, my average cost price on here, I don't know if it's correct, is $36. Uh so it puts me in a total profit of 247% 12 $125,000.
uh $95,000 in capital gain. And because this is because there's such a disparity in the market, like if we go to we're in greed right now, so we're not in extreme greed. And normally, uh if you've seen my previous videos, I'll just go to my fear and yield strategy. So when we get into an extreme greed, I have a big I have a strong in this fear and yield framework where I like to sell a portion of my single stock income ETFs when we're in extreme greed. The reason for that is because I want to free up cash for when we go into the fear and extreme fear and because that's where I believe most of the opportunity lies. And that's why I deploy aggressively into the high conviction and leverage ETFs in extreme fear. So, I'll buy be buying a lot during this zone and I want to be not buying around here and even selling a little bit uh when we're at the top here. Now, it says we're in greed, but really the stock market's all over the place. Like chips and semis are in extreme greed and a lot of these are in like fear. So, like software, consumer defense, energy, well maybe not energy but um like software is definitely in extreme fear right now. So, there's a lot of disparity there. And so, the fact that AMDW is on such a parabolic move is amazing. Um, and I'm loving it. And I still think even though AMD crossed over the $500 a share mark and I think that in the next few years or two or three years, it could go and hit $1,000. It scares me this move a little bit. It It's very euphoric. And so I was doing a little bit of research on um on Gemini and with Chat GBT and just about like AMDW. This is the thing with the uh Round Hill Weekly pay ETFs is they are risky. They are leveraged 120% exposure. So it's 1.2 times the underlying stock. That's the exposure you're getting. There's leverage. So if it goes up 10%, you're going up 12%. But if it goes down, you're going down even harder because you're getting a distribution paid out to you. you're also going down 12% for every 10% move where you go down. So there's risk involved. So when I was, you know, having this chat with uh chat GBT and Gemini, you know, I was analyzing this and this is basically the summary, the fear and greed snapshot of AMD. Now AMD is currently in extreme greed. It's got a reading of 82. Uh it's got a uh how do we do this? High overbought pullback likely. Its status is parabolic. It's 500 plus psychological wall. uh greed ratio in terms of put uh put call ratio and extreme status in terms of crowding high the trade is crowded and then when you look at that in comparison to like a meta for instance like Meta's in extreme fear Microsoft's in fear and caution Uber's in moderate fear Palanteer's in neutral so these are better buying opportunities and because of the uh weekly pay the leverage nature of these uh roundhill ETFs I actually decided now was time to take a little profit on this AMDW position.
So this morning after hours I was trading I'm here in Australia. I sold a few shares only only a few like a few hundred bucks worth because I still believe that it's going to you know I still think AMD will do extremely well.
I still think there's a shortage on chips. I still think believe in the business. I think uh you know the amount of revenue they're making and in terms of where we are in the AI cycle and the shortage of chips as I said I think it's going to do really well. So I only sold a few um but I just think it is the time when we're in such a parabolic phase and chips and semis are the ones that are really holding up the stock market.
They're the ones that are keeping us in greed. if chips and semis and and memory storage like micron um wasn't in it, I reckon we'd be in fear or near extreme like we'd be around here. So, it's just there's a huge disparity in the market and I think there's more opportunity and because it's getting so parabolic, I just want to make sure that I'm I'm being a little bit careful because these roundhill weekly ETFs because of the leverage that they have when they come down, they can come down real hard, like real quickly. So, just I want to take a little bit of profit, just a few hundred bucks, like I said, and rotate it into some of the some of the other um single stock ETFs that are in more extreme fear or fear or, you know, the the consensus uh is that they, you know, nobody's buying them. Everyone's avoiding them right now. Uh so, kind of the contrarian trade. So, um, when we go back here and I'll show you what because look at this.
Look at what happened yesterday. AMDW up 70 7.8% in a day. SMC, but then you look down here and Uber's down three and a half%. Microsoft's down, MSTW's down, Palanteer's down, Meta's down. So, so much opportunity in these ones. And we'll just go to my buy and watch list.
So this is my kind of my main uh income ETF watch list right now.
So we have uh I'll just do this by symbol actually. Amazon, Robin Hood, Meta, Microsoft, Nuclear, uh Palunteer, both ones. Uh the space uh ETF from Tuttle Capital, although that's just too parabolic right now, and Uber. And the main ones for me are Uber, uh, Meta, Robin Hood, and Palanteer right now. And I think of the four of them, I think Meta is the one. It is just down so much. Um, and I think unfairly. And so I think this is the one that I'll be rotating. you know, it's only a few hundred bucks, but I'll be rotating uh that capital into because I think that Meta when we look at the forecasts of Meta, like we're down here and the average analyst rating is a projected upside of 33%.
Okay, so from you know, it's a strong buy, 57 analysts saying strong buy, seven saying hold and it's the same for like you could go to Microsoft and it would be a similar type thing. uh 559 price target and we're down here. We're down at the bottom. And this is the thing with all these um uh why has it changed there?
This is the thing with all these stocks right now is that a lot of them are just so like oversold or undervalued right now. Whereas like AMD, Chippy, um all of those kind of semiconductor uh single stock ETFs are just going crazy. So, I'm just trying to protect that position, try and protect some capital and kind of lean into the reason why I produced this framework was to sell a small percentage of my single stock ETFs when they're in extreme fear and buy when the others are oversold or the sentiment is really bad.
Um, and when we're in extreme fear for, you know, uh, either your alties, the thing is with alt is doing really well right now. The thing is with TDAX is a leveraged NASDAQ 100 position, but again, it's doing pretty well because chips and um memory storage and AI is bringing up it's like kind of holding up the stock market, but there's lots of other opportunities in software, consumable stocks, that sort of thing.
So, that's what I'm doing. Uh yeah, I'm looking at So I'm probably looking at Uber. Um maybe Meta. I think I think Meta is going to be the one that's going to be my focus.
I love I love Robin Hood at this price.
Who I think that's a Palanteer. Someone mentioned Palanteer last week and I agree. Like Palanteer is uh Let me just go to stocks. Where were we? Why did this change? Hold on a second.
We'll go down here. We'll go to Palanteer and then we'll see.
Palanteer is probably a buy again. Yeah, Palanteer is a buy. We got 17 by strong buy, two buy, two strong sell. I think that they just crushed their their earnings report. Um revenue is just m they're basically a monopoly in the sector that they operate in and it's just I think Palanteer Yeah. Um, so Palanteer, Meta, Microsoft, I think those are the those are the ETFs that I'm buying small amounts. I'm DCAing into those and I'm just a bit wary of runs like this or from even Chippy. I'm not selling Chippy. I mean, let's be honest. I'm not going to be selling my Chippy position.
Where is Chippy? Where am I? I keep messing this up. Sorry, guys. Yeah, Chippy Hike and Socky just crazy. I mean, it's awesome. Glad I'm in them. I wish I was in SPCI, but it does make me a little apprehensive about these parabolic moves. Um because usually, you know, this has got to stop somewhere. Uh I'm not saying it's now.
I'm not saying it's a month from now, but I just want to be a little bit careful. You know, I'm only selling what a tiny percentage, like less than 2%, I think it is. Uh and rotate into these ones that are down a lot more near 52- week lows. the um the sentiment is really bad on some of these stocks, especially software, uh especially like Meta, which has got a big capex spend and that's really why it's been hammered so much. But really, it's an $800 stock that's trading around $600. So, for me, that's probably my focus right now. So, I'm trying to stick to my fear and framework. uh sell tiny bit of the single stock income ETFs that are going absolutely parabolic and rotate them into the ones where sentiment is bad and there's extreme fear. So those are the moves I've made guys. Um I just thought that might be of interest. I would love to know what you're doing. If you're holding on to your AMD uh income ETF positions, if you're holding on to Chippy, if you're taking profits anywhere, if you're rotating into other things, I would love to hear what you're doing in the comments. Uh, for now guys, I'll leave it there and I'll see you in the next one.
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