Ask 9: What to expect from tonight's round of strong storms

Ajouté : 2026-05-20

[00:01:56]Welcome back to Ask N. I'm Becky Phelps >> and I'm Joe Winters. Back once again.

[00:02:01]>> Back once again. You know, we um we were streaming at the beginning of our four days of First Alert Days, and here we are again streaming at the end, wrapping up an eventful weekend for weather.

[00:02:13]>> Why not, you know, wrap it up after four straight days of potential? First time we've ever had four First Alert days in a row.

[00:02:21]>> First time we've had chances of storms, four days in a row. Thankfully, thankfully, here in Eastern Iowa, what we've seen has not caused damage or been incredibly severe. So that we are very thankful, >> very very grateful for that. So like we said, our final of four first alert days, but Joe, you've been saying this is a this is later. This is going to be like overnightish.

[00:02:45]>> Yeah. So think about last night's storms. Kind of think about them as we head through tonight. Right now, we've kind of targeted for our first alert day when it really is is out there 900 p.m.

[00:02:55]to about 2 a.m. And I can probably cut that back to midnight, actually. So between 900 p.m. and midnight will be our best chance that we could see stronger storms that potentially could turn severe. Now again, I think it's going to be very isolated in nature. Uh but that possibility will be there. So there's what it looks like right now.

[00:03:16]What did we see through most of the day today across eastern Iowa?

[00:03:20]>> Clouds.

[00:03:20]>> What are we seeing right now as we look at our satellite and radar in eastern Iowa?

[00:03:24]>> Looks pretty cloudy to me.

[00:03:25]>> So if you have a cloudy day >> Yes. What does that do?

[00:03:28]>> Oh no, it's another weather thing.

[00:03:30]>> You always learn and you're you're becoming more and more of a meteorologist every time we do a stream.

[00:03:35]>> Yes.

[00:03:35]>> Clouds above us.

[00:03:36]>> Okay. What do they block?

[00:03:38]>> The sun.

[00:03:38]>> Okay. So, our temperatures underneath those clouds here on Earth would do what?

[00:03:42]>> Keep it cooler.

[00:03:43]>> Would be cooler. What is one ingredient we like to see or need to see for severe weather?

[00:03:48]>> Heat.

[00:03:49]>> Yes. We didn't get as much heat today.

[00:03:51]>> Oh, this is great.

[00:03:53]>> See, you are coming along.

[00:03:54]>> This is a lot easier than they think.

[00:03:56]Yeah, it's just it's >> got for this.

[00:03:59]>> Yeah, boy. We went to school for four years. Can you believe that?

[00:04:03]>> Anyway, wait till she asked me to stream the next I asked AJ a question on one.

[00:04:08]He was like, "Oh, yeah. I'll just use my water bottle to explain it." I was like, "Is it water bottle?" Simple.

[00:04:13]>> Well, we've used cupcakes. We've used I mean, there's different things.

[00:04:16]>> I'm so grateful for the experts.

[00:04:18]>> Clouds.

[00:04:18]>> Clouds.

[00:04:19]>> Blocking the sun.

[00:04:20]>> Yes.

[00:04:20]>> Not as warm underneath.

[00:04:22]>> Okay. That's good if you're thinking of not getting as strong storms. Doesn't mean we won't get some, but it won't be as strong. So, we go back to our satellite and radar, but there are some storms out there. Where? Well, maybe in an area that had sunshine earlier today.

[00:04:37]And boy, that's true. Back across southwestern Iowa into areas of Kansas.

[00:04:42]There's a line of storms that goes from basically Concordia, Kansas all the way up to Shannondoa, Iowa, Shannondoa, Iowa. Orange boxes along that line, severe thunderstorm warnings. Red boxes along that line, tornado warnings. Blue boxes, flash flood. So, there's some pretty good rain. They >> got everything down there.

[00:05:00]>> Yep. And back across our area and particularly as we head toward the southwest corner of Iowa, uh, numerous areas right now. And some of these will just pop on because it's automated some of the tornado warnings or severe thunderstorm warnings that are out in that area. What will happen is eventually this kind of almost congeals into a line that happened last night. So last night northwestern Iowa lots of wind uh several tornado reports confirmed reports at least two um in northwest Iowa eventually congealed into a line moved into our area. Our area was not as conducive to severe thunderstorm development. So the area is more stable.

[00:05:36]The storms just kind of fell apart a bit. So that's exactly what we're going to probably watch as we move through the evening and overnight hours. But again, just a long line of storms, and that was the area really that was outlined for the uh biggest threat for severe weather. This was put out earlier today.

[00:05:56]As you get toward the red and eventually kind of that pink or purplish color, that's when you really see the high outbreak. So, this outlook stretches from Texas all the way to Michigan.

[00:06:06]>> Whoa. Michigan is just um >> kind of looped in there. Just that's a fun little >> It's always interesting to watch because as things evolve and develop, they go, "Oh, we need to adjust this and they add a little bit because there's some storms in that area." This is the area really that we're watching. Um, and you can see exactly where that red is located on this outlook. That's where we're seeing the storms right now. Now, that does stretch into southwest Iowa. And there's an enhanced area as well because the storms coming out of southwest Iowa will still be strong as they move into oh, areas near Lemonai, Atlantic, up toward De Moine. But they continue to move east into more stable air because we had what today?

[00:06:40]>> Cooler weather >> and the clouds.

[00:06:41]>> And the clouds, >> right? So that all kind of makes it so as they get cross Interstate 35 and slowly get into that more stable air, the likelihood of them dissipating a bit or losing some strength is what's going to happen. So we still have that outlook in yellow across much of eastern Iowa.

[00:06:57]Um so that threat is there. It's just not as great as it might have once once was going to be as we move through the um well last week, Friday for example, Monday looked like and indeed it is in Kansas. If you're down in Kansas, areas of Missouri right now, it certainly is a big outbreak, but it looked a little bit um the ingredients look to come together better here and they didn't, which again nobody is sad about.

[00:07:20]>> Today even it felt a little less like humid when I stepped outside.

[00:07:23]>> Sure did because temperatures again were just a little cooler. still had due points in the 60s. So, we still had moisture around and if we can use a recipe for severe weather.

[00:07:32]>> Yeah, >> you need or Well, let's let's talk cookies.

[00:07:36]>> I'm great at this.

[00:07:37]>> What is your favorite cookie? What do you like? You did you make the lemon poppy seed?

[00:07:41]>> I did.

[00:07:41]>> They were delicious.

[00:07:42]>> Oh, thank you.

[00:07:43]>> Absolutely delicious. So, what what went into those cookies?

[00:07:46]>> Okay, we've got flour, sugar, baking soda, um salt in the one bowl, and then we've got the butter. Well, butter and sugar goes together. And then eggs, >> all these things, the poppy seeds, lemon juice.

[00:07:58]>> What if you took the butter and eggs out? What would happen to your cookies?

[00:08:01]>> They would not work.

[00:08:02]>> What if you took the eggs out?

[00:08:03]>> Wouldn't uh bind.

[00:08:04]>> What if you took the sugar out?

[00:08:06]>> That would taste terrible.

[00:08:07]>> Okay, so you miss one. You miss one ingredient. Your cookies are not going to be as good as they are.

[00:08:12]>> Absolutely.

[00:08:13]>> We were missing one ingredient today. As we take a look at our ingredients, we have moisture. There's And it's not quite as high as it was the past couple of days. We had due points closer in the near 70°ree range. They've been in the low 60s. So your observation is correct on that. So we had some moisture. That's one of the ingredients we had. We did not have the instability. That's the heating that we talked about. Um it just did not get unstable enough to allow that air to continue to rise as those storms move in. We did have lift.

[00:08:38]There's a front moving in. So that cold front that's coming in going to push that air up. So the ability is there, but the instability is not. And wind shear, different wind directions at different heights. Um we have that in place as well. So, but as we talked about with your cookies and with severe weather, one ingredient missing can cause that not to work. Now, I like the fact that this works with severe weather. I don't want you to miss an ingredient in your cookies.

[00:09:01]>> I love this checklist. This is great.

[00:09:04]This is very, I think, easy to understand.

[00:09:06]>> Yeah. Simple and storm ingredients. So, just kind of take a look. If you look back uh 10:00 last night, and this is the instability in the atmosphere.

[00:09:15]That's what the colors that you're seeing in the reds as well as all of the uh yellows that go to kind of the white color. So, this whole area here, that's instability. This is the line of storms that was developing. So, very unstable air and some of that in eastern Iowa.

[00:09:31]And as those storms moved into eastern Iowa, they still remained strong. But as they lost that instability or went more toward the red or moved out, look what happened. They dissipated and the stronger storm stayed down by Missouri where you're seeing more of that instability. So you can see where they're feeding on that. The the ingredient that we don't have. Um they had it last night. Wide view shows pretty much the same thing. As we head through this morning, look at that. The instability was down to the south across areas of the plains. Move through the day, that instability really moves in.

[00:10:02]Um the bright white that you see from Witchah all the way down across Oklahoma and Kansas. So that's where we're watching more showers and storms develop now. Right where the instability is greater. look right on that instability gradient. And in eastern Iowa, although we are seeing some instability increase a little bit, it'd probably be too little too late and most of that activity will stay in southern Iowa um into northern areas of Missouri for the strongest storms as they move through.

[00:10:30]Uh moisture is out there. So we did have some due points in the 60s, 70s farther down to the south. So that certainly was in place, but we do notice some drier air moving in behind it, which I can't wait. bring in some drier air, bring in some cooler wear, and bring in some more stable air. And for at least I think through Thursday and probably Friday, even though there's some storm chances, probably any non severe, so we don't have to worry about any more first alert days.

[00:10:54]>> That is wonderful news.

[00:10:56]>> It is. It is. It is.

[00:10:57]>> Cooler weather though, like how much cooler?

[00:10:58]>> Um well, did you like do you like the warmth? I mean, well, first of all, what did you do on Saturday?

[00:11:06]Um, on Saturday I woke up and I ran a 5K.

[00:11:11]>> Uhhuh. Which is great. Congratulations on that. And then what' you do?

[00:11:14]>> And then I sat in a dunk >> tank.

[00:11:15]>> Uhhuh. Where you want some warmer weather?

[00:11:17]>> Where I did really want some warmer weather, but I didn't want the warmer weather several hours previously at the 5K.

[00:11:24]>> You would have liked it cooler for the 5K.

[00:11:26]>> Oh my god.

[00:11:27]>> Where was the 5K at?

[00:11:28]>> It was at Guthri Park in there.

[00:11:29]>> Oh, it was okay. All part of the same event, >> which is a nice area by the way.

[00:11:32]>> Yeah. No, it's gorgeous. Yeah, it was a lot of fun. It was for Tales and Transit, their dog, Foster.

[00:11:38]>> So, a little warm, a little muggy for your run.

[00:11:40]>> Yeah, I was I ended up being very grateful to be in the dunk tank.

[00:11:43]>> So, the dunk tank helped. So, the warmer weather was good for that. It was >> not so good. If you want cooler weather, here's what we've got. Take a look.

[00:11:50]>> We're talking 60s. Um, >> okay.

[00:11:52]>> From about 64 to 66° for the rest of the week. Overnight lows in the 40s.

[00:11:57]Noticeably cooler than last last Friday we got up to close to 87, I think. Um, we've been near or above 80 um all the way into today. Upper 70s, near 80 degrees. So, noticeably cooler. Not I mean, nothing that you have to worry about if you have plants out or things like that. That's not you have nothing to worry, but it is going to be noticeably cooler and windy tomorrow with the northwest winds.

[00:12:18]>> Oh, windy.

[00:12:22]>> We've had we've had a series of um I play volleyball on on Tuesdays. We've had a series of just really unfortunate Tuesdays.

[00:12:29]>> And you're going to get strong northwest winds tomorrow. It's like really brutal Tuesdays. I am I mean it's nice to see some decent weather out for Memorial Day though.

[00:12:38]>> Yeah. Let's uh take a look at the specific Memorial Day weekend forecast and we'll consider it Saturday, Sunday into Monday. Although be a slow warming trend. Friday right now has some showers out there. Um we'll watch and see. Um that could last into early Saturday at this point. Timing is kind of the big question. So most of Saturday, all of Sunday and Monday right now look really nice. And we get the warming trend back and not super warm. Um, we're up in the upper 70s Sunday and uh looks quiet right now for any observances on Monday or anything you want to do on Memorial Day on Monday about 82 degrees. So, it uh slowly warms up as well for the weekend. So, you get your warmth back.

[00:13:14]>> I'm curious. I had some friends tell me they turned on their AC this weekend.

[00:13:17]I'm curious if that's going to stay on.

[00:13:19]>> They haven't had it on.

[00:13:20]>> No, >> really?

[00:13:21]>> No, just turned it on just now.

[00:13:23]>> I want to say Gosh, I turned mine on quite a while ago and every once in a while it uh goes on >> strong arming through it.

[00:13:31]Why sweat when you don't have to?

[00:13:32]>> I don't know, man. My AC is on.

[00:13:34]>> Yeah, mine was on and it's been on and it's been running a little bit more now the last few days, but >> yes, it's been putting some work in.

[00:13:40]>> Yeah, it'll get a little break. Um, which will be nice. Give it a little break. Let it kind of, you know, get set for the uh cuz summer isn't even here yet.

[00:13:47]>> That's very true. This is And it does This is the kind of time where in my brain it feels weird to say it's spring >> cuz I feel like it's we're like solidly in no more frost territory. I hope not gone. We're past Mother's Day weekend or simulated wood grain. Um we uh >> what we got out here >> and we um are past the the time where we'll see frost. We're past the three frozen kings which is three frozen kings. You don't know about the three frozen kings.

[00:14:16]>> Oh, I'm about to learn.

[00:14:17]>> Well, let me see if I can find the graphic because >> we have a graphic for this.

[00:14:20]>> I do. Let me see if I can find it fast.

[00:14:22]>> Is this something that I should know about being considered?

[00:14:25]>> Yes, you absolutely should know about this. Let's see. I think it is in uh let's try this.

[00:14:33]Let's try this. Oh, sure. There we go.

[00:14:36]You don't know. You never >> had it ready.

[00:14:39]>> Wow.

[00:14:39]>> Get it ready to go >> here. Three frozen kings.

[00:14:43]>> Okay.

[00:14:44]>> So, check legend from the 4th century.

[00:14:48]There were three frozen kings that visited in late spring. I don't know exactly how to pronounce the names, but there are the names of the kings. May 12th, May 13th, and May 14th, all three of them went out on a lake and it froze.

[00:15:03]They froze solid.

[00:15:06]But on May 15th, St. Sophie comes and thaws them with a kettle of hot water and they all survived. So according to Czech legend, once you pass the three frozen kings by May 15th, you can plant because they've been thought out by St. Sophie.

[00:15:23]>> What? I love this. I have never heard this story before.

[00:15:27]>> Yeah. Three frozen kings. People follow that. Now, you think about we talk about Mother's Day a lot of times. It's kind of that date to watch. Well, many times Mother's Day is around the 12th, 13th, 14th, so a little earlier this year, but many times. So, it kind of follows that same thing. But yes, three frozen kings.

[00:15:41]>> There we go. And we've made it past that.

[00:15:44]>> And look at this.

[00:15:45]>> That's great.

[00:15:46]>> End of May into early. Let's look into early June. Why not? June 1st.

[00:15:49]>> Okay.

[00:15:50]>> Well, above normal.

[00:15:52]>> Oh my gosh. Nearing June. Can you believe that? Five months of the year are done.

[00:15:57]>> As I said to Cory in the weather lab today, I said, "Sooner or later it's going to be fall. Suddenly the snow will be flying. We'll be talking Christmas."

[00:16:03]>> It's basically Christmas.

[00:16:04]>> That's how it really is, >> Joe. 364 days a year. It really is.

[00:16:09]>> It's almost It's Christmas.

[00:16:11]>> That's pretty close. We're Yeah, we're coming up anyway.

[00:16:15]>> First Alert Day in effect. Let's not forget that. 9 to about midnight. I'm going to change that to midnight because that's the time. Um not looking for a lot of activity. It looks scattered or isolated if it stays strong. Southern Iowa favored. Um we're looking at southwest Iowa right now. It is beginning to approach Interstate 35. So we're passing 5:45 right now. Um it does cross 35 and then moves through southern counties. So approaching our area again 8 9:00ish. Um and again numerous warnings along that. But you notice as it gets north, and you'll watch it happen, as we move north, it will likely uh dissipate and kind of congeal into a line um as that activity moves. While farther back to the south and west, that's where they see the very very powerful storms. And right now, the the individual cells that can give us some of that tornatic formation.

[00:17:05]>> All right, everyone say thank you to the clouds for giving us a bit of a break today.

[00:17:09]>> Thank you. Yep. Thank you for the cookies.

[00:17:11]>> Oh, thank you.

[00:17:11]>> They were fantastic. And using those for our explanation.

[00:17:14]>> Thank you for the weather.

[00:17:15]>> Yep. Anytime. Anytime you ask, I will be here for you.

[00:17:19]>> Oh, this is We have the best weather team. We really do. Thank you again for coming on the show and thank you all for joining us here on Ask N. We appreciate you coming on. Hope you feel a little bit more prepared for tonight and excited for the rest of our week. We're almost clear of >> almost there and almost June and almost Christmas >> and almost Christmas. Have a great evening.