Is Crypto's Next Trend Here?🤔 | SIGNAL WITH SNORLAX

Ajouté : 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]and welcome to this week's episode of Signal with Snorlax, brought to you as always, of course, by me, Snorlax. You also know me as Tommy. Today's all about crypto. Uh really dissecting whether or not the next trend is here, uh whether or not the new trend has started, uh whether or not this is going [music] to resolve into lower pricing, whether or not this is ultimately going to turn into a higher low. Try to discern where crypto could potentially go on [music] today's episode. But, hope everybody's having a great week so far. Uh I am away from the office at the moment. So, uh I don't have my big monitor today, but uh you might notice that my mic sounds a little bit better than usual. Uh it's cuz I'm probably going to be a little bit closer to the computer.

[00:00:44]Um regardless, though, right? I I mean, Bitcoin has been kind of in this stair-stepping uptrend really since we set the low back in early February, right? Kind of around 60k.

[00:00:59]Traded all the way up to to like 82, 83k, I guess, depending on which exchange you were using. Uh and then we started to see some rejection from an area that I don't think was really that surprising, right? When we kind of look at like the totality of this range and and where volume came in. Uh specifically like from the Trump pump impulse, we rejected, obviously, from here from this uh this value area low.

[00:01:22]Uh we're talking about effectively 18 months worth of value that became supply for the market. It's still difficult for crypto, obviously, to flip this and and mainly Bitcoin. Even though Michael Saylor is buying billions and billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin, why can't we go up, right? Uh it definitely matters. But, we have, at the same time, seen Bitcoin volatility smashed into the ground way more than I would have imagined. I'll be the first person to say I did not I did not expect DVOL to be coming all the way back down to where it was trading uh before 1010.

[00:02:00]Is this deep value? Are we going to see this kind of give some sort of exit pump before breaking through the floor?

[00:02:09]Um you know, we we've seen this big paradigm shift in Bitcoin volatility mostly because of MicroStrategy's uh you know, the increased volume that we're seeing from STRC obviously which gives them uh a tremendous leverage and leeway to be able to buy Bitcoin.

[00:02:28]But they obviously cannot do that at least not as much when we see STRC unpegged from one. Uh >> [snorts] >> an interesting candle down today. I don't really have any thoughts on this.

[00:02:39]I mentioned on Market Check today that uh the thing about STRC is I don't really understand it, but I do understand that when it's pegged to one, that's when Michael Saylor's going to have the most amount of firepower. And I've been saying for a while that I think that MicroStrategy specifically could be a could be forming at some sort of shoulder. It's definitely dragged out longer than I expected. Uh I think the same when I look at something like Coinbase. Obviously when I look at uh when I look at Solana, when I look at a lot of these old coins, they've given me this five um that we're probably seeing a bear flag. Most people are confusing it though, in my opinion, for reaccumulation.

[00:03:19]Uh I guess that's the million-dollar billion-dollar maybe even trillion-dollar question for this asset class at the moment. Um but I don't think it's a coincidence that we've seen Bitcoin reject from this level and show such weakness with with old coins as well kind of showing us uh they look ready for the next leg down with the exception of two or three. And I'll be assuming that I'll highlight those on today's episode. Uh but when the S&P hits 7,500, we're seeing Bitcoin really materially show uh more of that weakness. So, I do think that's notable.

[00:03:51]I think the fact that DVOL is starting to bounce is problematic. Uh and I would also add you know, something that I've seen other people point out. Let's talk about the Bitfinex longs.

[00:04:04]Which uh at least during the last bear market climbed for pretty much the entirety of the Bitcoin downtrend. It's probably not a coincidence that we're seeing these start to rise now that Bitcoin is selling off. We can compare these two charts.

[00:04:20]And we can see there's obviously a correlation here. At least there has been since like really over the last 18 months, right? That that same that same value area that we just highlighted on Bitcoin. We've seen a lot of of confluence here obviously with the way the Bitcoin's traded and the way Bitfinex is now twapping long. So, I think this will be a pretty good signal as we move forward specifically on Bitcoin. Um and and even so, man, like this looks so much as well. Like total DeFi.

[00:04:53]So much so. Um so, if you kind of want an indication of where crypto liquidity could be headed, I think Bitfinex, as they often do, is probably leading the way. Um but right now when we're talking about like who is the marginal buyer of Bitcoin, it's seemingly only MicroStrategy at the moment, which you know, I don't have to lecture you guys about all of the risks that that poses. I do think we're seeing this like dichotomy uh form between MicroStrategy buying all the Bitcoin. That is inherently short like Bitcoin vol.

[00:05:29]And then at the same time, you know, you want Bitcoin to have those impulsive candles to the upside. That's ultimately why we as speculators are here. So, push-pull, I guess. But I do think at some point the market's going to have to reckon with the fact that uh if only one person is buying Bitcoin, Yes, we can go higher on volatility continuing to be crushed, but the market's going to need a marginal buyer as well, or else it's going to realize eventually that it doesn't matter how much Bitcoin you buy if you don't have anybody to sell it to. Uh and so I almost feel like in some ways we front ran Mike We're going to continue to front run Michael Saylor, rather, and STRC having ammo to purchase Bitcoin. Uh so that'll be an interesting dynamic going forward.

[00:06:13]I'm not quite sure what the trend for Bitcoin specifically will look like.

[00:06:17]Maybe that's somewhere we can kind of look at these alts a little bit more closely uh from a timing standpoint, but I do think this is headed lower throughout this year, probably even as soon as the summer.

[00:06:30]Uh there's definitely an argument to be made that markets have front run that that typical like summer float higher, uh specifically small cap assets.

[00:06:39]I know it doesn't really feel like crypto participated in that cuz we're seeing so much activity in equities right now, but um it's I mean semis especially have just gone absolutely nuts to the point where we're now seeing a huge amount of overweight positioning versus what was almost historically underweight towards the March lows.

[00:07:00]>> [snorts] >> Uh but let's look at some of these individual names.

[00:07:04]This chart is just sad, honestly. Um it's a sad chart.

[00:07:09]I've said for a long time I think that crypto is has been in an echo bubble.

[00:07:14]Again, I think that people have been arguing that the echo bubble has ended and we're seeing reaccumulation now, hopefully, um rather than another markdown phase.

[00:07:24]I am somewhat leaning that we're going to I mean, I'm not somewhat leaning. I obviously do think we're going to see another markdown phase uh for the rest of crypto in the space. Um I'll keep making comparisons to the to the echo bubble that tech saw in 2008. Yes, I know Bitcoin made a new high, uh but we saw assets, individuals, we even saw indices make new highs in 2008.

[00:07:48]Tech specifically did not. This is a concept that I think I've talked about for each of the last two or three weeks.

[00:07:54]So, I am expecting this to mark down right now. We're kind of trading like towards the lower end of value from where this range has traded.

[00:08:03]Really over the last What is this now like two and a half years? So, a markdown could be pretty ferocious. Um to new lows maybe it I mean it could always It could always just take this low and bounce.

[00:08:20]That's not my bias at the moment. This is I I will say though like this is the level for crypto that you need to bounce. I don't want to completely rule it out because crypto has shown us some really incredible things. And you know, we have seen risk, speculative risk especially in equities really blow off over the last few weeks and the last few months, but I raised this question on X this morning.

[00:08:44]Crypto always front runs a dump in equities.

[00:08:48]And I think because it's taken so long for that to be reflected in equities that people feel as though it's not going to happen.

[00:08:56]But for me it's more of a signal of All right, well it's It's probably actually a signal that the the dump that's coming in equities rather than things being completely a new paradigm and crypto just selling off in its own isolated corner probably means the magnitude within equities is going to be much greater than people can can conceptualize at the moment cuz obviously we're ripping right now. And I'll touch on that kind of briefly towards the end of this episode. This episode's mostly about crypto, but you know, I think from a technical standpoint on ETH you're looking for a bounce here or you're praying that you get a bounce here. Because God forbid you break this low At that point, I think structurally you're taking out this low and probably backfilling some of this move here. I don't quite know what level that would trade into cuz it's pretty uncharted territory if we're being honest. And, uh, it goes without saying that would likely require a very long refractory period for a lot of these, uh, for for ETH and obviously all coins. But, look, I mean, we've seen bank stocks trade somewhat similar to the way that ETH is trading right now.

[00:10:08]And what those bank stocks ended up doing, they took this low, they had some sort of catalyst, which was obviously a massive amount of of fiscal stimulus, and then they bounced, ranged a little bit longer, and then obviously had about these 10 to 20-year supercycles, uh, within a broader equity market massive like gigabubble. So, that's kind of my bias with ETH at the moment. I think that is likely what we are going to see out of this asset, but there's no denying at the moment that this thing is just and it's it's really, pardon my French, but it's trading like a complete piece of Uh, it really is. And when you look at this chart against the Qs, it's just it looks even worse.

[00:10:48]Uh, it really does.

[00:10:50]And I think that ETH looks a whole lot like Coinbase right now. So, probably going to see an end to this this, uh, I guess we'll call it a this distribution phase for coin in the relative near term. Uh, I'll keep saying I've never seen a chart bottom with a structure that looks like this. And I think SOL looks the exact same. So, these are two assets, three assets really, when you when you factor ETH in as well, that I think are getting ready for markdown phases again, uh, and probably full cyclical resets. I know that's not really what people want to hear, but um you know, we kind of have to trade the chart. Now, one thing that does really stick out, though, is is because we're seeing DeFi crushed to such a degree, it does it does enable some altcoin narratives to really catch positive inflows because there's no there's no correlations from Bitcoin taking price lower.

[00:11:46]Um and two of the biggest beneficiaries of that, there there really three, but hyperliquid, obviously Zcash, and then of course VBV as well. I don't really know like what VBV does. I know the chart looks good. I know I've had some really smart friends that have been trading this for the last few months and and trading it really well. Uh but I really don't know anything about this.

[00:12:06]There is opportunity in the market though. I think that's kind of why I'm highlighting it. As long as DVOL remains suppressed and Bitcoin's not nuking, these coins can kind of continue to catch a fundamental bid, a narrative bid because there is that demand within equity markets for those type of assets or even within the space uh from a capital rotation standpoint where people go out of large caps, they go out of micro caps, maybe even Bitcoin and ETH, and into these new narratives, into this volatility uh that's obviously very active right now. Uh Zcash I think is probably the one that is starting ironically to interest me the most. I know hyperliquid has all of the uh the acclaim right now.

[00:12:50]But I think that Zcash and and privacy coins in general, I don't like the look of Monero, so I'm not I'm not highlighting it today. I think that the Zcash Monero pair specifically looks set to see further appreciation of Zcash against Monero. So I would I would definitely highlight that. Um but yeah, I mean I I'm not quite sure where I would be buying this. I don't know that I would buy it here if I'm expecting Bitcoin to mark down, but uh I do think this is in a broader adoption cycle.

[00:13:20]Adoption still a funny word to use with crypto, but um I I I like this asset. I like the the structure of this uh this chart in general.

[00:13:31]Although I could see us do maybe something like this before our real high time frame breakout. If I had to play Zcash, that's probably what I'm going to lean towards.

[00:13:43]And if it just giga sends, then maybe keep just playing the the lower time frame volatility on it. This is kind of ironic, but it does look a lot like Nvidia here on lower time frames. Hold on, I'm getting a lot of notifications right now.

[00:14:00]Oh.

[00:14:01]Um >> [laughter] >> I This does look a lot like Nvidia on lower time frames. So, you can guys can kind of see how cleanly these two assets are really trading. So, if we see Nvidia leg up again towards like 280, towards 300, which is definitely possible. Um which is definitely possible. I think that this is kind of like a make it or break it level for both Zcash and Nvidia. So, I would pay attention to that, of course, but um you know, if this does leg up again, if Nvidia legs up again, I would expect something like Zcash to catch a bit. I don't I think there's a reason for them to trade in the same basket necessarily, but uh there is an interesting correlation going on there at the least.

[00:14:42]And the same can be said about HyperLiquid, which does look quite a bit like Zcash as well. Um especially within kind of like this local structure over the last 1 to 2 weeks.

[00:14:52]This has huge amounts of inflows from ETFs on a relative basis. It's the hottest crypto asset really since we saw dats perk up last summer.

[00:15:02]Um What do I expect from HyperLiquid?

[00:15:06]I mean, if Zcash legs up again, then I would expect this to probably leg up towards 70 to 80 dollars and continue this breakout. Would I be top blasting here though? I'm a little bit less confident in that. Uh simply because I think we're beginning to see some distributive price action on hyperliquid and we are also interestingly I think seeing some some very What's the word? Um I guess I'll just reuse interesting again, right? Like within the order books we have some hype whales that have massive shorts on. They have massive asks here. Maybe they're baiting shorts ultimately to try and get even higher asks filled because I know these whales have massive spot bags as well.

[00:15:49]But um right now this seems to be a sticking point for hyperliquid price action and I from that standpoint I think there's a a little bit more of a supply concern here than maybe there is for something like Zcash. So I'm going to be very interested to see kind of how that resolves. Um if we lose 55 to 54, I would not want to stay long hyperliquid anymore. As long as that level holds though, I think you kind of are forced to remain bullish on this asset. Obviously given the flows that it's that it's receiving right now.

[00:16:23]But as far as some other altcoins go um I don't really have any thoughts on on lighter.

[00:16:29]Maybe it benefits from hyperliquid continuing to go up.

[00:16:33]Oh man, I I just don't know why this would why this would go up. It's like It's like buying Avax when you could have been buying sole during 2023 if that makes sense. Like yes, Avax will go up from beta correlation, but you're trying to chase ROI rather than just playing the winner, which is in my opinion not a great move just in general.

[00:17:00]Sometimes it works out.

[00:17:02]You're just usually better off buying the winner.

[00:17:06]I guess I'll touch on Ave kind of last before I go over some just like general liquidity things. Um Ave is looking really really rough and really the current state of DeFi I think in general looks quite rough. Um maybe we just kind of continue this like very compressed volatility regime on Aave as we continue to bleed down. It doesn't look like a bottom to me personally. Really this structure looks quite a bit like the structure that we saw for example on ETH right here before we saw our final capitulation phase down. So gun to my head that's probably where DeFi is is at right now.

[00:17:49]Um That obviously sucks to to maybe think about the bastions of DeFi marking down like that, but you know, I I can't say it would be all that surprising either. This is a do or die level for the market. I think it made sense that we bounced here.

[00:18:06]Coinbase kind of communicated this morning that this was coming.

[00:18:11]Right? We sold off obviously on war fears. Crypto is is a market that doesn't need to trade with the New York hours.

[00:18:19]We'll pay attention to Coinbase for signal.

[00:18:22]Um but I do think that this market is likely headed lower here over the next few weeks and over the next few months just based on a myriad of different factors. So >> [snorts] >> um I do think that crypto's next trend is here.

[00:18:35]Maybe there's a little bit of chop before we see the real trend, but I tend to think we're going to move as soon as really the next two to three weeks on some of just basing that off of some of these altcoins. So uh we'll see what we get. Uh obviously if markets continue to rally, specifically something like Nvidia, um and within the crypto space it will be hype and Zcash. Uh so I will be watching those two assets probably more than the rest if you are actively trading upside within crypto.

[00:19:08]Not financial advice ever, of course. Uh the [snorts] last thing I want to touch on is it's it's really not surprising to me that we're seeing pressures on liquidity within crypto. It is the most liquidity sensitive asset class in the market. This continues to be a huge concern of mine.

[00:19:24]Uh the USD/JPY, which is just pressing up against the ceiling at this point.

[00:19:29]When is this going to go? What is the catalyst going to be? I can dubiously speculate. Uh but I do think at some point this year we're going to see USD/JPY give a massive move higher. And I think that will be accompanied ultimately with TLT giving a massive move lower. These things are going to be hugely negative for market liquidity. And I think that crypto has probably been front-running this to some degree for a long time.

[00:19:57]Um really kind of that decline in in market conditions and liquidity. So, I think when that goes, it's going to be a very different look in the equity market for one.

[00:20:10]But, obviously, maybe we see that correlate with kind of this last leg down with crypto that I've obviously been expecting now for a few weeks.

[00:20:19]Uh similar to, you know, what we saw with the DJI. I'll keep making that reference with Bitcoin uh in 2008 when it gave that final flush lower.

[00:20:29]Uh obviously, that was when liquidity conditions ended up worsening.

[00:20:33]Uh and we had banks really struggling, right? I mean, that's an understatement.

[00:20:37]So, uh maybe we see that correlate ultimately with this final leg down for Bitcoin and crypto. But, I do think, you know, a whole different wave of factors like all coins, um like Bitfinex beginning to long Bitcoin, these are telling us that crypto's next trend is probably very, very soon.

[00:20:56]Uh so, I will be watching for that here over the next few weeks, guys.

[00:21:00]Um we'll see what we get before the next episode, of course, of Signal with Snorlax. Hope you guys enjoyed the episode today as well as kind of my my improvised desk setup.

[00:21:11]>> [music] >> Cooked a little longer than I meant to, but I'm not mad. Have a great rest of your week.

[00:21:17]>> [music] >> I'll be back next week for another episode. Thanks, guys.