NIO Stock Analysis: Is The Sell-Off Over?

追加: 2026-05-24

[00:00:00]Nio stock was down 15.7% last week. It's dropped 20% in the last month.

[00:00:07]It is up about 7% in the last 3 months.

[00:00:09]So, Nio stock did fall away following the earnings report. They posted a loss, but very positive earnings and going in the right direction, but nevertheless investors didn't like it and the price has dropped. So, in this video, I'm going to conduct a price analysis for Nio stock, off my thoughts and opinions on whether you should buy or sell this stock. Let's take a look.

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[00:00:54]So, Nio stock posted their earnings report last week. Now, we can see on screen in this short article by Invest, they're talking about why Nio stock is falling despite revenue surge and strong EV delivery growth.

[00:01:10]So, we can see that Nio reported first quarter revenue of 25.53 billion yuan, 3.8 billion US dollars, more than double the level recorded a year earlier, and above the company's forecast range.

[00:01:25]So, very positive for Nio.

[00:01:27]It also says that vehicle deliveries doubled year-over-year, which is also positive across Nio, Onvo, and Firefly.

[00:01:37]However, this all led to Nio posting a net loss of 496 million yuan for the quarter.

[00:01:45]But, compared to last year, that is very, very good result, a very positive for Nio.

[00:01:53]But, overall, the stock price did fall. So, despite all these positive signs for NIO and everything going in the right direction, investors weren't happy and the stock was sold off.

[00:02:06]So, we can see on screen on the weekly chart for NIO stock earnings here last week and we can see overall bearish price action during last week with the earnings coming out. So, obviously investors didn't like the news even though it was relatively positive.

[00:02:27]So, technically for a short-to-medium-term trade, NIO now becomes a sell. The clear sell signal there from the price action last week.

[00:02:39]Following this lower high here and the price action falling through and closing below this price trough here created a couple of weeks ago. So, technically NIO is a sell if you're in this short-to-medium-term trade following the trendline break.

[00:02:58]So, what exactly do I mean then regarding this sort of trade sell? Well, we can see price action here falling away since this $8 level back in September 2025.

[00:03:11]It was bearish. It did come down to find support here, came back up to form this higher low, then came down again, once again pushed back up to about 581 to create this lower high again, and finally it came down to about 430 on the weekly data.

[00:03:32]Sort of a double bottom there.

[00:03:34]430 and then 440.

[00:03:37]And you can see then price did break away from this sideways action, breaking the trendline.

[00:03:43]And depending on your rules, the rule I was looking at was an entry above this level here about 580. I wanted price to come down, find support, break up, and then take out this level here at 580. So, you can see it did break, but fell away immediately to pick up orders down here during this week.

[00:04:05]It reversed and closed at around 477.

[00:04:12]And then this was the the breakout week, very bullish during this week of March commencing 9th of March. So, for me that was the buy signal there where it closed for the week above this first peak following the trend line. So, in terms of an entry, you could have taken it on the weekly data on that Monday the week after this bullish close. So, your entry was around about 599 on the market open.

[00:04:38]And of course, targeting that $8 level up here where we know there's lots of resistance and potential selling pressure.

[00:04:46]15% stop loss, you'd have a risk to reward of 2.31.

[00:04:52]And you can see following the entry, NIO was bullish for 2 weeks. So, from the entry here, it did move up to create that peak. You would have been about 17% in profit following 2 weeks after the entry.

[00:05:07]Um but of course, you'd have to wait to move your stop loss up. You needed to have, you know, some sort of price trough to track your stop loss for any profits.

[00:05:20]Price then fell away from this week here during April. There was two bearish weeks, and eventually it came down and it created this trough here, which where you could have put your your trailing stop. Which is obviously just then below your entry price here.

[00:05:39]So, any price drop or break, you know, and close below that level would have triggered an exit. And that's exactly what happened last week. Price did sell off following the earnings report and it closed low. So, on the weekly rules, you would have taken a loss with this trade on Neo about probably negative 10 to 15%. Let's have a look.

[00:06:01]Thir- about Yeah, about 13.2% potentially if you're going to sell, obviously, on market open next Monday.

[00:06:10]And that's based on the weekly rules.

[00:06:12]Now, if you use the daily data, you probably would have got out a bit earlier. So, let's check that out.

[00:06:19]So, over on the daily chart, we can see for Neo a long position could have been possible when price closed above that peak here following the trend line break. So, this day here, Tuesday, 10th of March, closed bullish. So, you could have entered the next day uh on the Wednesday. So, just here.

[00:06:39]And um looking at the $8 target and then putting in um a basic, you know, 10 to 15% stop loss, potentially, you could have put at the bottom of that gap there, 12.6% of downside. So, 3.28 risk to reward on the daily.

[00:06:57]And price moved up few days after and then pulled back inside your stop there.

[00:07:03]It then reversed and then took off to create that peak of about $7. So, after that low formed, you could have trailed the stop up there to about 530 as you sort of um your trailing stop. Um and then, of course, as it moved higher, you could have moved the stop loss up a bit further up until this this low here.

[00:07:28]And similar to the weekly price action, once price fell away and created this trough here, that would have been your exit marker if price fell through. And we can see then it did create that lower high before closing underneath that low on this day here, which was Friday, May the 1st. So, you could have got out a bit earlier on the daily price action for Neo stock. Obviously, before the earnings was published.

[00:07:58]And in that scenario, using the daily data, you would have exited with a profit of just under 5%.

[00:08:05]Exiting just in this bar here on the Monday market open, which opened at about 5.95.

[00:08:12]So, trading Neo on the daily or weekly, obviously, yeah, they're both both sells. You'd be out of this stock now.

[00:08:18]Weekly, potentially, on Monday, you take a sell on that short to medium-term trade. But, what if you're longer term?

[00:08:25]How's the price action looking longer term? Let's come across to the monthly chart and have a look.

[00:08:31]So, we can see on the monthly chart, it is looking as if May is going to be a bearish bar. Got about a week to go, but it does look as if May is going to close low. But, you'll notice that the longer-term trend is still looking okay for Neo.

[00:08:47]We can see following the long-term bearish price action. It's come all the way down to find this $3 low here back in April last year. So, about 12 months ago now. It's found that low and started moving up. It's found that higher base here at 3.37. It's broken the trend line. Remember those three bullish months last year.

[00:09:10]Come into $8, found that resistance as it's done before. And it has pulled back. But, it formed that higher base once again, which is positive around 4.34. Before March was a very bullish month for Neo.

[00:09:26]April was also positive, but you can see the April bar. I'll just make this a little bit bigger.

[00:09:32]You can see very bullish bar, extended price action March, and then coming into April the bar is a bit smaller. It did get rejected about $7 and closed it closed high but it closed back down the bar. Now of course in May we've got that red bar. It does look as if May is going to be bearish. I wouldn't want to see price action close lower than where it is now 517.

[00:09:59]You can see I've got this trend line just just guiding up here the price action.

[00:10:03]We've got this low here the higher low higher low almost an equal low here and potentially this is going to be a trough for May.

[00:10:14]And we need to see now in June obviously buyers come back in if this longer term trend is going to keep pushing up. You can see overall if I zoom out very bearish but it has stopped falling here at $3 and it has come up. It's sort of in a sideways pattern here. If you look at the last sort of you know 12 to 18 months you look at this price action here. It's clear that you know it's it's fallen it's come down it's looked for support counter trend it's fallen a bit further and this at the moment is the the key low and from here it's pushed back up. Can't get above $8 and now it's sort of moving sideways or is it you know it's unclear yet. What we need to see is a break of this $8 as I said before many time. So right now we can see this this short to medium term trend is moving up.

[00:11:13]But for that long term trend to be established we need to see price action break $8. Otherwise the risk is that it's going to move sideways between sort of you know four and $7 for a number of months and it could do that it could consolidate before it breaks to the upside.

[00:11:32]But I think for that long-term trend to be consi um confirmed, we need to see that break of $8.

[00:11:39]So effectively, we want to see this sort of price action.

[00:11:43]We have seen that lower high following this one.

[00:11:47]It's come down. Now we want to see it push up now and break here. It might take a few months. It might come down a bit lower, but eventually if enough buyers get behind the your stock, we're going to see a break.

[00:11:58]And then we're going to see that longer-term trend confirmed by that bullish price action. And then, you know, we can get that that longer-term trend um moving up towards the upside and then into new price action up here, you know, above $16 and and beyond. So overall, the bigger picture looks positive for NIO.

[00:12:23]As I mentioned, the short-term trade is over with the volatility, but long-term, I think NIO is moving in the right direction.

[00:12:32]Let me know what you think in the comments. Did you trade NIO and took a loss, or perhaps using this pullback to buy more NIO because you believe in long-term? Thanks for watching.