WTH is up with pokemon cards...?

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:01]Hey guys. So today I wanted to talk about the market, but not the usual stock market and the bond market like we usually do, but I wanted to talk about the Pokemon card market. Now you guys might remember that about a year ago, I think it was about 10 months ago or a year ago, I uploaded a video saying that I bought some Pokemon cards when I visited Japan. And I actually told you guys that I was buying those cards just for fun. Um, I never really seriously treated those cards as a hard asset class. And I never actually thought, you know, there's going to be any price appreciation on the cards I bought. And, you know, basically, after I got into the Pokémon card thing, and you guys all know that I'm a complete idiot when it comes to, you know, the world of Pokemon cards. So, you guys might remember that I was referring to Charizards as a red dragon. And I had no idea what I was dealing with, but I just, uh, you know, bought some card which I, um, thought were, you know, good-looking. And after that, I bought a couple of other cards as well. And um very recently, in the past week or so, I suddenly got curious because I was going through the TV and I saw some Pokémon stuff coming up on TV.

[00:01:04]So, I just kind of very briefly searched the internet to see how the Pokemon card market was doing. And trust me, I never actually tracked the market um in the past year after I started buying the cards. And I actually came to a complete shock. I Okay. Well, you know, I to tell you the truth, I actually um thought that the cards may appreciate in value if I hold on to them because, you know, generally just like the antiques market, if you hold on to something which is old and you keep holding on to it, there's going to be that inflation value which is embedded onto the assets that you're holding on to, especially when it's physical assets that you can actually feel and touch. But, you know, when I recently looked at the pricings of the cards, you know, some of the representative cards, I was actually in a pure shock because a lot of the cards actually tripled and quadrupled in value. I mean, obviously, I told you guys and I've been with you guys for the past over a year, you know, talking about the stock market, the bond market, and you know, whatnot. And I've been giving you guys all these analysis on the macro, the liquidity, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, the government, the geopolitics, the politics, the war, the oil market, the inflation, the interest rate, the Federal Reserve balance sheet, and everything. All those analysis and all those hard work that I've been putting into and the yield that I was getting out of those hard analysis was easily just beaten by this piece of papers. And you know, first of all, you know, I had that 0.1% regret on the fact that, you know, I didn't buy that many cards. But second of all, I just wanted to kind of let it out there and discuss with you guys on why this is happening. And, you know, versus a year ago, I'm actually a little more educated on the Pokémon stuff than I used to be.

[00:02:47]You know, I don't refer to Charizards as Red Dragons anymore, and I actually know what it does. So you know I just wanted to kind of give you my views which may sound dumb and idiotic because I have no idea how this market works and at the same time and these asset classes is not something which I've dealt with um in my life and I've just been buying them uh just out of you know pure fun. So you know I might sound really dumb but I just wanted to let it out there and uh discuss with you guys on how you guys think about this phenomenon. Okay. So, first of all, I just wanted to show you guys again the stuff I have related to Pokémon stuff. So, I think I showed you guys already last time, but these two boxes are what I bought from Japan. U 151 boxes with um I think I refer to this little character as a lizard back then, but I know that it's now called a Mew. So, these two MU boxes is what I have.

[00:03:42]And then, you know, I bought these two cards. Um, these are 2018 2019 Sun and Moon blah blah blah Venusaur Blastoise uh, PSA 10s. And I just bought this because I thought it was cute. This is called the Charmander printed in 2004.

[00:03:57]Also PSA 10. Um, and then this one is a 25th anniversary, I think 2021 Charizard Holo 25th anniversary uh, PSA 10. And this is a also a 25th anniversary Venusaur PSA 10. And another 25th anniversary uh Turtle Blastoise PSA 10.

[00:04:17]And then this one is a 2016 20th anniversary reverse foil evolutions Charizard PSA 10. And this one is actually a 2021 Charizard Ultra Premium Collection. I think they call it the metal Charizard. And this was a PSA 9. I actually tried to buy a PSA 10, but you know, first of all, there's no PSA 10s out in the market. And even if I try to buy them, they're worth like $15,000.

[00:04:42]So, this was the only one I was able to find. So, I bought this uh PSA 9 metal Charizard 2021. And then this one is a 2000 Charizard PSA 10 Neo2 promo reverse foil. Okay, so that's that. Um, so I have these cards. Okay, so now let's get to the point. Basically, the recent phenomenon I found out about these cards is that a lot of these cards have tripled or quadrupled in value. Now, when I think about it, um it's quite easy to say when you see something triple or quadruple in value, it's really easy to say that it's a bubble.

[00:05:20]For example, you know, I see a lot of people comparing it to tulips uh back in a few centuries ago or NFTTS or the.com bubble. And I see a lot of videos that are getting a lot of views when people say that in front of the camera. Now, you know, to tell the truth, I really don't know much about Pokémons and you know, how this market works. But, you know, I just wanted to kind of refrain from saying, you know, this is a bubble just because it has risen in price a lot. When it comes to the basic fundamentals and the basic uh criteria of investing, there are a couple of things you need to take into account.

[00:05:52]Number one, when it comes to stocks or bonds, you take into account of the dividend or the interest that you earn from it. And from a macro perspective, as I tell you guys all the time, you'll need to take into account of the Federal Reserve interest rate and the balance sheet and the overall liquidity environment which is connected to the M2 money supply as well. But this market is something which I've you know honestly never thought about deeply and I just wanted to kind of get a sense of how you guys think about it as well. Okay. So I just wanted to go back to the very beginning and talk about why I decided to buy these cards from the first place.

[00:06:24]Now the reason I started to buy these cards is because you know I have a lot of friends who has kids and whenever I visit my friend's house or whenever I have like family dinners with my friends they would bring their kids and every time my friends bring their kids those kids would bring Pokémon cards and it was just so amazing that it was like a 100% hit ratio where I would see my friends kids bring Pokémon cards and play with them. I don't even know what they're doing with them. They're just kind of they would just like lay the cards on a table and just look at them and if there are multiple kids they would like they would compare their cards with each other and talk about something which I didn't really understand but they were kind of doing that and I thought first of all I thought it was interesting and second of all I thought if these kids like those cards so much and if it's 100% hit ratio among all the kids out there at least as far as I know then probably you know and I see some clips on YouTube where people are kind of you know carrying the boxes and pulling out cards. I thought maybe this is something which has a potential of growing in demand in the future. And I kind of started thinking about Pokémon cards as part of an asset class which I should start thinking not seriously but as something which I should consider.

[00:07:36]And you know obviously as I told you guys at the beginning I didn't think of it as a serious asset class and I never thought that the cards would go up in value that much. So, you know, I started buying some relatively cheaper cards, not like serious one like a PSA 10 Charizard first prints or anything like that, but I just kind of purchasing some cards here and there and try to keep them as a memorabilia for myself. So, that's the reason why I started buying them. Okay. But now when I'm looking at the market these days and the recent trend which I found out was something a lot more serious. I saw the market spiking up and the level of increase the price has shown was just off the charts to the extent where it surpasses the yield of the stock market or the bond market or any commodities market. So first of all when we look at Pokémon cards from my perspective this is an asset class and I'll call it an asset class given that it has a pretty firm pricing at this point. This is an asset class where you have no dividends, no earnings, no cash flow, no fundamentals, and it's just driven by supply and demand. So basically, just like bitcoins or gold, you would need to look at it from a demand and supply perspective and try to form your view on how the demand and supply would go in the future. Okay, first on the demand side of things, when I look at the demand, I think this may be just me, but you know, I get the feeling that the demand has been increasing quite aggressively in the past few years. As I told you guys, it started off with kids and I see kids playing with the cards here and there, but it never was to the extent where, you know, grown-ups would jump into it and start purchasing cards in a serious manner. You know, I'm not talking about like hyped influencers on YouTube or the internet, but I'm talking about like general adults who had no interest in Pokémon cards, but started jumping into it, looking at the pricing trend. And I think a lot of it was driven by what was happening in the YouTube world and the Instagram world and other social networks in general. I was doing my research and one thing I realized is that this influencer called Logan Paul played a pretty huge role in hyping this industry as a whole. And I also watched the entire seasons of the Golden Company which sells collectibles and memorabilas. And I think those two were the two important pillars that played a role. Obviously, I think there are other Pokémon card influencers out there in the YouTube world um who contributed to this market as well. But when it comes to the adults market, I think those three pillars, Logan Paul, the Goldens, and other YouTube influencers who does a lot of Pokémon stuff, I think those three contributed to this a lot. And I think that market, which is kind of separated from the kids market, kind of skyrocketed in recent years. And I think a lot of the serious buyers with the money like the adults who actually have the money started jumping into it which led to an overall increase in the demand. So I think it's fair to say that while it's a subset of the entire population, I think from very young aged people to a quite old-aged people are now in the market. So this entire Pokémon market kind of encompasses the entire age groups. Although the people who are actually serious about it is only a small fraction of the entire population. But obviously we would need to look at it from a perspective of whether this demand is sustainable. And I think there are two axis which we need to pay attention to and I think the first axis is the Pokemon company and the second axis is the world outside of the Pokemon company which is the issuer of these cards. Now when it comes to the Pokemon company I think it all comes down to the sustainability of the content that they're producing including the animations and the games and the cards itself. What I've realized in recent years is that these guys are very smart. Now, one thing I realized is that, as you guys may all know, these guys issue cards on an annual basis and almost on a monthly basis. And there are tons of cards out there. There are promo cards and they're blah blah cards, which I don't know about. So, these guys basically make a lot of money by selling the cards. But then what these guys are good at is that these guys make anniversary cards. for example like 20th anniversary card which I just showed you and 25th anniversary card and 30th anniversary card which will be coming out soon as well. So these guys continue to generate a less rare lineup of cards to the public which would bump up the price of the previously issued cards back in the days as people say about Bitcoin all the time there are finite number of coins available and a lot of them get lost or get stolen or are locked in a wallet. So people's general thesis is that as time goes by while there are finite number of issued coins the available coins to be purchased will also decrease which would lead to a more rarity in the supply of the coins. So as they continue to issue like 25th anniversary cards, 30th anniversary cards, 35th, 40, 45, 50, the cards which were issued previously will continue to go up in value as long as there is sufficient demand. Now I would say that this entire demand is driven by psychology. So, a lot of people would look at these Pokemon cards as an investable asset at this point, and as they see more cards come out which are less valuable, they would immediately think that the cards that were issued previously are more valuable. So, they would go after those cards before this uh new cards are issued. Now the key difference between a Pokemon card and the other assets of similar nature like Bitcoin or oil or dollar is that a dollar is the same dollar even when it was issued 5 years ago or today. Same for Bitcoin as well. If it was mined 5 years ago and you have a Bitcoin which is mined today, it actually carries the same value. But these Pokémon cards is different in a sense that if you have a new Pokémon card that is issued, there's an exact year it was printed. So the vintage is less rare compared to the cars that were issued before. So you could say that there's infinite amount of supply. But at the same time, what we need to keep in mind is that the cards that were issued back in the days now have a chance to be more valuable because they're less valuable cards that are issued today, which also carry some value. So this new cards acts as a floor for the cards that were issued back in the days. So I think that's one of the key differences between Pokémon cards and the rest. In terms of the contents which the Pokemon card company produces, if you look at the games and the animations that they produce, especially on the game side, I feel like, you know, all these contents and games that they come out with and the new games, whenever I play it, it's actually almost the exact same format. Maybe except for the Pokémon Go game which was released a few years ago, the rest of the games that you play on Nintendo Switch or whatever is actually pretty much the same. It's actually just, you know, a guy, you know, trying to hunt for a rare Pokemon. And it's just the same format.

[00:14:22]We just walk around and battle Pokemons and try to, you know, beat the trainers and try to earn the best Pokémon out there. So, it's the same format, but you know, the interesting thing about this is that people continue to play it over and over again, and especially the kids, whenever a new version comes out, they would continue to play it over and over again infinitely. And you know from my perspective I kind of understand what they're doing because if I look at myself I have some games which I play over and over again as well. You know those games which I used to play back in elementary school or middle school I continue to play it even today whenever I have time or whenever I feel like playing them. I kind of get the mentality. So that was a very interesting part. So that's on the Pokemon company side. Now, if you look at outside the Pokemon company, I think this economy outside of the company itself is divided into two aspects. So, number one, the influencer economy. So, as I told you guys just now, if you look at guys like Logan Paul and the King of Pokemon cards and people like that, they're basically hyping up this entire industry with just one word, like a single single action that they would take on a card. For example, if somebody purchases a Pokemon card for $5 million or sells it for $16 million, just like Logan Paul did with the uh the PSA 10 Illustrator card, that actually anchors the price to a higher level, which would bring up the entire pricing of the entire Pokemon card universe underneath.

[00:15:49]And I think that was what's going on in the past year. And I think while this may take place for certain asset classes or even memorabilious or paintings for example in the market for example if a painter's painting was sold for a really high purchase price the entire painting drawn by the same artist would also go up as well. So it's a common thing that would happen in the market but the price of that asset going up this fast is something which I've never observed in any market. If you guys know any other market which actually rises this fast, which does not have dividends or interest or any other fundamental value, just let me know because I've never seen this happen. So basically, this influencer economy, as the YouTube world grows and the social media grows, the entire economy of this Pokemon world is growing altogether because the influence that these influencers have on this market is growing day by day. So that's something which we cannot stop and which nobody can stop. I think the only way this could break is if somebody finds out that within one of the major transactions that happened, for example, the Pokemon Illustrator card transaction, if somebody finds out that there were a scam or a setup within that transaction to bump up the entire industry's pricing, I think that could lead to a break in the overall psychology of the market, which could crash the price altogether. But unless somebody finds out that you know everything which has happened in the major transactions were all staged and stuff like that I think this will continue to be the case. Now number two if you look at the macro environment aspect of it I think I explained to you guys in my previous uh videos as well there's a finite liquidity in the market and in order for the liquidity to reach a certain point where it flows down to an economy like this like the Pokemon cards which is not a popular asset among investors. It would take a huge amount of liquidity for it to flow into this which is a little bit counterintuitive considering where we are right now. The interest rate may go down as the new Fed chair comes in but at the same time I told you guys that the overall Federal Reserve balance sheet may also contract as well given that's his thesis. So basically what I was telling you guys is that the Federal Reserve quadrant was still in section C of the quadrant. So if you think about it, the liquidity is limited. Although the interest rate may go down from here, but the interest rate is still not a zero interest rate which we used to have back in the co days and also the Federal Reserve balance sheet may also go down which may contract the overall liquidity in the market. But this Pokemon card industry is boosting in price. So if I think about that, it's a little bit counterintuitive because this whole liquidity for example, this would flow into the prime stocks first like the Mac 7s or semiconductors and then to the less popular stocks and then to the no earning stocks and then to bonds or commodities and then to you know things like the cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum and then to like layer 2 cryptos and then to layer three cryptos and then to other assets like Pokémon cards. But Pokémon cards have outpaced all these assets in the past year, which doesn't make any sense. So, when I and we think about this, it's fair to say that it doesn't really make sense for us to invest in Pokémon cards at this point because we're still in the section C of the overall uh Federal Reserve liquidity. If you're in section A where the interest rate is going down and the Federal Reserve balance sheet is also aggressively going up, I would say that it's a very perfect time for us to invest in the Pokémon cards. And I do believe that the prices of Pokémon cards have skyrocketed back in 2020 and 2021.

[00:19:11]But now is not a period where the liquidity is so abundant that the money can flow so much into these kind of assets. So the only way we can explain this is through the overall influencer hype which has been formed in the market in the past few years and also the increase in the demand which have expanded from the young kids to the adults who have newly entered the market. And also the other thing which is most important which I'm still scratching my head is I have no idea how to value the emotional attachment people have to these kind of products. Now basically this emotional value is something which is quite different from the past bubbles that we experienced.

[00:19:50]For example in the dotcom bubble when the market crashed it is fair to say that none of the people who actually bought those dot stocks didn't really have an emotional attachment to the stocks itself. you can't really feel it and you can't really, you know, look at it. So, the only purpose you had when you invested in those stocks was to make money. But when I read through all these Pokemon communities, I actually see a lot of people who don't seem to really care about money and the capital gains that they can get from these cards, but they're actually collecting them because they genuinely like them. Now, it's really hard to see those kind of people in the crypto market or the stock market or the bond market or the commodities market. I mean, I guess there could be people who fall in love with a company and they just hold on to the stocks forever or people who are so emotionally attached to the crypto industry that they just kind of, you know, collect cryptos as their digital token. But I get the feeling that people who are emotionally attached to these cards are far more in number versus the people who would do that in the other asset classes. Now, obviously, I'm not saying that majority of the people are like that. I think a lot of the people especially the ones who have newly entered this Pokemon card market in recent days are doing this because they just want to make money and also I think that's one of the uh one of the things that we need to watch out for. But you know from a liquidity perspective as I said before I feel like you know this is the time when you shouldn't be and even for the past year as well this is not the time when you should be buying Pokemon cards from a pure macro perspective. But I just wanted to kind of let it out there and discuss with you guys and hear what you guys think about it because it's so counterintuitive that this market has grown so much in the past year that the returns on these cards have outpaced almost the entire markets out there. So, you know, sorry I'm not really educated on these stuff, but I just wanted to hear your thoughts on this. you know, when it comes to me, I plan on refraining from buying these cards unless there is something which I really want um which comes out in the market at a fair price. But I'll be very discreet and selective in buying these cards from now on. Um given that the price has jumped too much um at this point, but you know, I will continue to monitor this market and I also plan to treat this market as something as a more serious asset class in the future as well. So, let me know what you guys think in the comment section down below.

[00:22:13]And uh you know, I'd be happy to hear any thoughts you guys might have.