Is the AI Boom Real? Seth Freeman's Big AI Prediction, Foreign Investor Outflows & Market Outlook

追加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]Uh, let's actually get in. Seth Freeman, senior managing director at uh, Glass Ratner Advisory and Capital Group. Uh, Seth, good morning and welcome to the show. It's always a pleasure. This is Hiral here.

[00:00:10]My question to you is how are you reading this entire geopolitical situation? I know we talk week in, week out about what next, but I think there seems to be no respite over here. On one side, questions and conversations about negotiations which are ongoing. On the other side, you're talking about fresh attacks which are being made, you know, on US bases as well. Uh, how are you reading into this situation because the impact is absolutely seen. I mean, you see that down tick in terms of crude and there the spike comes in yet again.

[00:00:46]>> Yeah, we we see it in real time. Uh, the impacts of favorable announcements, negative announcements, uh, the Iranian government saying the talks are suspended, uh, the US uh, uh, Trump administration saying, "Oh, no, that's not right. We're continuing to talk and talks are back on." Um, it's very volatile and it's reflected in in the market action.

[00:01:13]>> Okay. Uh, Seth, hi. Good morning. Mahima uh, joining the side. Uh, with regards to FIs flow, right? I was just reading yesterday that in 2025 total outflows that we saw uh, from FIs have already been been done in the last 6 months in 2026 already. Um, so according to you now, uh, do you think tides are going to turn but because yesterday there was a Morgan Stanley report stating that, you know, from here on a strong year for the equities is what uh, they're expecting. So what's your overall view when it comes to FIs, uh, you know, outflows or inflows?

[00:01:48]>> Well, there there is a point at which uh, the growth rate uh, expectations uh, may actually induce uh, to come back in. I was reading an article this morning about whether the new calculations of GDP growth were correct or not and indicating that in fact India had understated its growth rates and it's been more close to a 7 and 1/2 7.8% average uh, except for a 23 24. So, that might get investors excited. Um, all of a sudden there are articles popping up about this idea that if you uh, take the uh, high growth rate in India plus AI then it could be supercharged India. And we may be reading more about that in the coming days.

[00:02:45]>> Good morning Seth. I'll Sharad here. Of course I want to talk a little bit on the macro front as well and very interesting data which I you know Hiral picked out is gold has overtaken US treasuries as the world's number one reserve asset for the first time in 30 years. Now, how does this actually shape up in the macros when it comes to the reserves for both the US treasuries and the gold treasuries?

[00:03:08]>> Well, it's pretty crazy when you see gold prices rising in unison with the market and interest rates. So, um, clearly uh, expectations to have some piece of the rock the gold rock. Um, there was also some recent news about um, the amount of gold tied up in India versus the rest of the world. So, uh, it is the reserve currency uh, on the other hand um, you don't get any return on it on a current basis.

[00:03:45]>> Uh, Seth, my last question to you from my side is in terms of the global IT sell-off that we saw in terms of overnight trade. I mean brokerages are citing AI disruption as one of the key reasons. You had Nvidia, you know, come out and say that AI is not something which will be negative when you talk about software companies, specifically Indian companies. And that's what caused that kind of rally in terms of Indian IT over the last two days. And in overnight trade, the kind of down take that has come in, you have Wipro ADR which that was down, Cognizant, Accenture.

[00:04:21]What are you making of this entire AI theme? Do you think it's still a bubble which is brewing, ready to burst anytime? Or do you think there is really some froth there?

[00:04:32]>> Well, there's got to be expectations of growth plus froth. If you look at the valuations, you were talking about trillion and a half dollar valuations of companies.

[00:04:46]I was reading this morning again with SpaceX expectations of newly up to a thousand newly minted multi-millionaires just from this one IPO. And um I think what's being and and in terms of Indian IT companies, outsourced companies, large corporations are in fact cutting back on consulting spend. And that's going to affect the Indian consulting firms. On the other hand, I think it's very likely that the high-speed nature of AI and the amount of power and computing power that AI actually recovers may actually create demand for new software that hasn't even been contemplated yet.

[00:05:33]>> Okay, sir. Thank you so much for taking out the time and you know, giving us all those insights. Always a pleasure having you at NDTV Profit.