Why Microsoft’s Desktop Monopoly is Finally Cracking

Added: 2026-04-29

[00:00:00]Hey everybody. Uh, it's your friend and your guy gardener. Uh, I'm here today because Lionus posted a very interesting video over on the Linus TechTips channel and I wanted to react to it. I started watching it and then I was like, I might just react to this instead. So, uh, this is a mostly fresh reaction uh to the year of Windows humiliation. I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of talk about Linux in here. Uh, and if it's not specifically about Linux, I think it is, then uh, there's still some interesting stuff that I feel like I can add to this. So, let's get into it.

[00:00:37]For decades, we've joked, is this the year of the Linux desktop? And to a lesser degree, is Apple finally sick of selling iPods with cellular modems and ready to take a bite out of Microsoft's desktop market share. But it's always been just that, a joke. Even within the niche communities that embrace Windows alternatives, the year of is less of an optimistic projection of future success and more of a masterpiece of self-deprecating observational humor that we've spent so long debating the timeline for this grand event that even the deepest believers are no longer sure that it's ever going to happen. Because in spite of every monumental improvement in the competition, not to mention in spite of every Microsoft stumble, Windows remains as dominant as ever.

[00:01:29]>> I don't know about that per se. I mean look there there is a significant trend um that it is a pronounced trend I would say maybe not significant but that is that is some pretty uh steady decline for uh the Windows desktop which up until very recently I'm talking like the Windows 11 era um it has remained pretty flat in terms of of market share.

[00:02:01]Windows has been the predominant operating system for PCs for time in memorial. And now we're cutting into it, guys. We are cutting into it. Not only are the cracks appearing, but they're starting to widen in a way that could put the critical mass that drives widespread adoption just around the corner. So, it might not be the year of the Linux desktop, but seeing one colossal failure after another, it's starting to feel like the year of Windows humiliation.

[00:02:33]>> And I think that Microsoft knows it.

[00:02:35]>> Clearly, Microsoft knows that it is the year of Windows humiliation. uh they have been announcing things like um uh trying to test updates to make sure that they don't break when they roll out to people across the world. Being able to prevent uh or dismiss updates for up to 35 days. Like these are things that Microsoft are actively doing to help uh regain market share here. But I think people are waking up to the fact that Linux is just a superior operating system. It it it is uh people are waking up to the the the fact that uh Linux is the only real way forward. If you value your privacy, if you value your autonomy, if you value actually owning your PC, Linux is the only way forward. Microsoft has shown they are ready, willing, and able to force themselves upon the general public uh and make themselves uh self-appointed admins of your PC, taking that away from you uh and uh making ads and mal like malicious behavior the norm. And I don't think we should ever trust them again.

[00:03:54]Nobody should. And um yeah, it I don't think anyone should trust them ever again because they've shown they are so willing to do this nefarious stuff. My proof, Microsoft themselves, they're not stupid. They see all the same signs that I do. And after years of Windows and crapification, they finally dropped the facade and published an open letter to the community promising to do better this time. Please take me back.

[00:04:25]>> Yeah. No, people aren't going to buy that. People I mean the like the PC gamers are you pissed them off and you've pissed off the the core demographic um for Windows at least as far as like consumer I I don't like that term, but like consumer PC hardware. You piss off those guys and and you're not going to be able to sell Windows licenses anymore. Microsoft.

[00:04:51]>> I want to get this out there before we go any further. As a lifelong user, I certainly have my share of gripes with Windows, but I'm also no hater and for every complaint is also a counterpoint.

[00:05:03]I mean, sure, search is a giant swimming pool full of dog water, but how about firing up compatibility mode and running software from my childhood? That's outstanding.

[00:05:11]>> Please. Microsoft's compatibility mode has become a a joke as far as I'm concerned. Proton and Wine offer tremendous legacy support for for older versions of Windows APIs. I don't know.

[00:05:26]I just I don't I don't see Microsoft's compatibility uh making that meaningful difference anymore. On the surface, there's not a ton of danger signs here, thanks to its broad support for most titles, its often lower prices, and its unparalleled access to modding tools that enhance the gaming experience. Learning to navigate the ins and outs of Windows has become something of a right of passage for young PC gamers to feed their habit. And once they're on the Windows platform, many gamers end up stuck due to kernel level antiche and copy protection systems that either only work on Windows or that developers choose to only implement on Windows. And yet gamers are leaving Windows in numbers that we have never seen before. Tom's Hardware observed last year that while Linux market share was languishing for years in the 1% range, 2022 marked a significant turning point with Linux then surpassing 2% sometime in 2024 and 3% in 2025.

[00:06:31]What happened to build this momentum?

[00:06:33]>> It's now over 5% on the Steam hardware survey. Yeah. Also the fact is that um it Microsoft has Windows for ARM but uh ARM is like becoming a viable solution not just on something like the Ein Thor or the Aynthor I don't know how to pronounce the the brand name. Um, but it Valve is also producing their headset which uh the the Steam frame which has uh an ARM processor and it's going to be able to play a significant portion of the the games that the Ein Thor can play and that's first party steam hardware. Uh and the market is moving towards ARM and it feels like Microsoft is quite behind in the ARM space. Uh I have it within the last two years or so I've used a laptop with Windows for ARM on it and it's hot garbage. Like I couldn't figure out how to get Steam working. Uh that's you know anecdotal of course. Windows is antiquated. It's stuck in the past. It's being developed by a company that is um how do I put this politely?

[00:07:49]It's slow. Microsoft is slow. It is it is a structurally uh slow institution and uh you know it's it's like IBM it's like uh RCA right these are companies that uh cared more about the structure uh the infrastructure of the organization rather than being able to be nimble and um capable of having teams work independently and uh build things. It's micros. Okay, I just thought of the word bureaucracy.

[00:08:26]Microsoft is a bureaucracy. It is uh these teams that uh have in order to get things done in the Windows world uh at Microsoft teams have to work together in order to uh make these things work. But there's so much seuite baloney going on that um this is at least what I have heard. There's so much seauite baloney going on and there's so many levels of bureaucracy that need to be satisfied before teams can get the green light to work together that things just don't anymore. That's my understanding anyway.

[00:08:59]I I could be wrong about that. But the idea that Microsoft is somehow going to be able to write the ship at this point that they've already lost the momentum.

[00:09:09]They've already lost favor with so many gamers. They've already alienated so many Xbox players that even if they come out with like, you know, the next Xbox and it has Windows on on it and it can play your Steam games, I think they're going to have a real hard time getting people back on board. That's just my take.

[00:09:30]>> Microsoft has been doing seemingly everything in its power to turn Windows into a giant ad for One Drive, Xbox Game Pass, and Edge Browser. Ads that I can't simply dismiss and then never see again.

[00:09:42]I made a video just a little while ago about why it's time to switch to Linux and uh he's hitting on all the same points that I was hitting on in that video. I mean, Windows is now a surveillance marketing tool uh that Microsoft has weaponized against their own users. And people don't like being bludgeoned over the head by a corporation. People don't want to be cajol into uh you know one drive or using edge. Nobody wants those things.

[00:10:16]Uh and people have learned that Linux ain't going to push that stuff on you.

[00:10:21]It's it's garbage.

[00:10:23]>> Breaking news editor. No idea where you're going to put this, but Framework just announced that for their new Framework 13 Pro laptop, the Ubuntu version is out selling Windows.

[00:10:33]>> That's pretty cool. Uh yeah, the iuntu version of the framework desktop is or the framework laptop uh is now out selling the Windows version. I mean granted framework has a uh I would say a somewhat of a different market share, a different clientele. So but I mean Windows was still like the primary seller on those old machines I think on their older machines anyway.

[00:11:02]Um, fascinating.

[00:11:05]>> Windows use is eroding and Linux use is growing and Microsoft is clearly taking drastic measures to stop the bleeding.

[00:11:13]The most obvious example has got to be the new Xbox full screen experience or Xbox mode that Microsoft developed to provide a more seamless gaming experience on handheld PCs like the ROG Xbox Ally X that they co-branded alongside ASUS in late 2025. It pairs down system resource usage, particularly system memory significantly, and makes the whole operating system much easier to navigate with a controller. And it's coming to a desktop near you. This is very exciting stuff. But it also raises a big question. Why now? Microsoft has owned the Xbox brand for nearly 25 years. At any point, they could have taken what they learned there and then stripped the Croft out of Windows to provide a better experience.

[00:11:58]But they chose not to until they were forced into action.

[00:12:02]>> See, Microsoft has been their their hand has been forced. Like he said, they have to start competing with Valve. Um even but they didn't even back when Gabe Newell was saying that Windows 8 was a disaster for everyone in the PC space.

[00:12:20]That's gamers, but it was also game developers. It was also game publishers.

[00:12:24]And Microsoft didn't fight back then either. They don't fight back because the institution has so much momentum.

[00:12:32]It's going in the the the way it's going the way Satia Nadella wants. It's going the way you know their their investments are in AI. Their investments are in Azure. Their investments are not prioritizing Windows. You know, you can't read the tea leaves and say Microsoft cares about Windows. Like I think there are teams at Microsoft that do care about Windows, right? But I don't think the institution of Microsoft cares anymore. Even though like the Xbox team and the the Windows team are working on making like the Xbox the Windows experience for e gamers or whatever, it's too little too late at this point. Like they're not going to be able to re they're not going to be able to repair the damage that's been done to their reputation. And to be clear, right, I've been saying that Microsoft is not trustworthy for I mean, as long as this channel has been around, I've been doing this for like 14 years at this point.

[00:13:32]That's insane.

[00:13:34]Uh, I've been saying that Microsoft isn't trustworthy for ages, but gamers, people who aren't like uh interested in the hyper niche special interest of operating systems and corporate shenanigans are not watching. They're not trying to figure this out. They're like, "What gives me the most access to my games?" Windows.

[00:13:57]Okay. Well, let's play on Windows then.

[00:13:59]Why would I plan anything else if it takes away access to games I've already bought in my Steam library, in my Epic, in my uh Amazon, in my GOG, right?

[00:14:08]People So, but now people are realizing that not only uh is Microsoft untrustworthy. They are ruining the platform. They are ruining uh the experience. They are forcing ads down your throat. But also, you can get a better experience in a majority of your Steam games on Linux.

[00:14:32]And that that's the thing that like Valve keyed in on is like it's not enough for Microsoft to just not be playing, not be competing like and actively undermining their market share.

[00:14:46]Valve realized that they had to make a better experience.

[00:14:52]And those two things combined, that's why we're seeing such great market share growth for uh for Linux now. Um it's pretty exciting. I've been talking about this for like 14 years, guys. It's insane that uh you know, I've been over here in my little quiet corner of the internet uh talking about this stuff for so long and it's finally becoming a reality.

[00:15:21]It's It's cool. I love it. And speaking of my quiet corner of the internet, you can head over to the Bryant Review. This is uh gardenerbryant.com. You can check this out. Uh I've got tons of cool content going on over there. We have on average we're posting one new article a day. And uh it's written by me. It's written by my friend Dash, by my friend Hightech Low Life, uh by my girlfriend.

[00:15:45]She's got a couple articles coming up pretty soon as well. and they're all really fun uh nerd culture gaming related and uh I've got a review of the Steam Controller coming up really soon, so make sure you get over there and check that out. While Apple's Mac product line has been treated like something of a red-headed stepchild ever since the iPhone completely took over Apple's balance sheet, their share has been slowly but surely growing and in my opinion is on the verge of a major breakout. Apple silicon was one of the keys, giving Certino complete control over their performance profile, supply chain, and margins. And while they were content to keep things mostly status quo for a few years, the launch of the M4 Mac Mini was a huge turning point in my eyes. Suddenly, the same company that used to sell $700 wheels for their desktops had a great generalpurpose desktop for less. Then they followed that up more recently with the MacBook Neo, an incredible $600 laptop using their last gen phone chip whose success has surprised even Apple. And did I mention it's only $500 for students in schools? With Apple suddenly aggressively pursuing volume while the rest of the industry is reeling from pricing shocks due to DRAM and storage shortages. I mean, no amount of Microsoft writing checks to Dell or Lenovo is gonna suppress that competition for mainstream consumers.

[00:17:15]>> Yeah. Not to mention, like I said, the the industry is moving towards ARM. Like the PC industry is moving towards ARM.

[00:17:22]Val's doing it, Apple's doing it. Uh some boutique manufacturers are doing it. Uh some some other manufacturers, Chromebooks are doing it, right? ARM is far more power efficient than x86. Uh, and like I said, Windows on ARM is not a great experience yet. I don't know if it's going to become a great experience.

[00:17:44]I I have I'm skeptical of that. I just don't see Microsoft being agile enough to to make the moves necessary to switch architectures. Like Microsoft's like a radio station in the era of uh online media. Like Microsoft just feels like a dinosaur. and I am highly skeptical that they're going to be able to compete.

[00:18:08]Now, >> all of this is against the backdrop of Microsoft's traditional customers being desperately ready for change. I've talked about how Linux is chipping away at mind share among gaming enthusiasts, but both Mac and Linux are now strongly positioned for other types of enthusiasts. AI enthusiasts, software development enthusiasts, freedom enthusiasts, privacy enthusiasts, value enthusiasts. I mean, these are just some of the passionate user bases that have become so disenfranchised to the point where they will openly admit to only using Windows because I have to. To be clear, Microsoft is doing stuff on top of the Xbox stuff I mentioned. They've committed to pulling unnecessary co-pilot AI cruff out of tools like snipping tool and finally fixing search, not to mention allowing the taskbar to be repositioned. But see, here's the thing. Okay, dude. Pulling unnecessary AI out of products like of of the different apps that are built into Windows. What Microsoft fails to understand here is that they've already pivoted. They pivoted hard into AI.

[00:19:22]That is part of the problem. That pivot showed that they are not trustworthy.

[00:19:28]Microsoft cannot be trusted. They are going to sell you down the river. They are going to ruin your experience if they think they can make money from it.

[00:19:40]And that's what's going on. That's why people are no longer trusting Microsoft.

[00:19:45]That's why uh market share is eroding.

[00:19:49]And I think the dam is about to break. I really feel like we are on the verge of major change. I really I and I hope I hope I hope that something like the Steam Frame is going to uh make a big splash. It's going to make a big change.

[00:20:07]But we'll see. All of these things raise the same question I asked before. Why did this course correction take so bloody long? It is better late than never. Even as I was writing this video from my MacBook Neo, I found myself tempted by Microsoft's efforts to win me back.

[00:20:28]Here's the problem. It took this long, like I said, because the institutions at Microsoft are not structured in a way to keep users to build positive mind share with users. Microsoft doesn't consider you to be uh Microsoft doesn't consider you to be a friend. They don't consider you to be a customer. You are a resource to Microsoft that they have a right to and a and and a need to exploit. The the reason that Microsoft has been losing so much market share is because people are waking up to that fact. You are a resource to Microsoft. you are a natural resource that must be exploited for maximum profit. Even though they are realizing that the uh the the profit margins on AI are next to nothing, they're still going to and they're going to course correct from that clearly. Uh the fact is at any moment the next shiny what thing that they think that they can dangle in front of you to to exploit you, you know, they're not going to give up on edge, guys. They're not going to give up on all on one drive and the various ways that they are screwing you over. Uh and people are waking up to that fact. So to answer Linus' question, that's why. And they have enormous inertia. So, the year of Mac OS or the Linux desktop, it's probably not this year and probably isn't next year either. But staying afloat the way they have isn't a given.

[00:22:08]Just because the Titanic didn't sink in 30 seconds doesn't mean that it didn't eventually sink. And Microsoft's iceberg is clearly on the horizon. Only time is going to tell if they can avoid it.

[00:22:21]>> All right. Well, I think that was a a fairly wellargued uh video from Lionus.

[00:22:26]I like where his head's at as far as arguing for competition and not really taking sides. But I will say that I take a side if you didn't know already. I I think Microsoft is an untrustworthy organization with uh too much inertia to change course in a meaningful way. Uh because they have already changed course and people know that they are not trustworthy anymore. Um I think that's going to do it for now. Thank you so much for watching. Head over to the Bryant Review, check out some of the awesome stuff we're doing over there. I just did a really fun retrospective about Bioshock, which I made a video about here, but I think the read uh the article is a little bit more fun than the video. I also have made other videos which you can check out up here. Uh that's going to do it for now, though.

[00:23:12]Thank you so much for watching and I'll see you guys in the next