Successful stock investing requires combining fundamental analysis (revenue growth, earnings trajectory, thematic positioning) with technical analysis (moving averages, volume patterns, IPO VWAP) to identify stocks before they explode. Key principles include: (1) Look for stocks with multiple catalysts like Marvell's combination of CPO technology, custom ASIC positioning, and earnings acceleration; (2) Use technical indicators like the 50-day moving average as exit signals and IPO VWAP as a core technical framework; (3) Position sizing should be conservative for micro-cap stocks due to inherent volatility; (4) Great growth stocks appear expensive at purchase but valuations compress as earnings catch up; (5) Avoid FOMO-driven trades by following your rules and giving investments time to work.
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How to Find Stocks Before They Explode | The Solid ReportAjouté :
[music] [music] >> What is going on everyone? Welcome to the Sal report. It is a great day in the market again. The queues just don't stop going up. It it is literally just a face ripping rally right now and bears are getting shellacked right now. We have tons of stocks to do good today, but it is mostly centered around of course the semiconductor industry. We've had the great news with China yesterday which we can get into a little bit. I'm going to gather our good guest thoughts. So we're going to bring on someone onto the show.
He's been a great friend for quite some time. We've had a previous podcast with them just a month or two ago. His name is Bidu. Let us bring him on back onto the show. What are you doing sir? How are you? I'm good. I'm good Sam. How are you?
I'm doing plenty good. Basically Marvell is a double for us by now and honestly this is like one of those companies that I've been bullish on for a while cuz I've been in Marvell before and then I've gotten out. Like I traded like around this thing. But when you started tweeting about it, I was like man, I need to take a closer look at this company and I started looking into them.
It's like jeez, dude, they they have a lot of good stuff in the pipeline because I actually was one of my one of my buddies were on the stock talk discord and Wall Street engine traded the earnings and he bagged a massive he bagged a massive move during those earnings. So I looked into those earnings and I was like they are getting into photonics. So obviously they acquired Celestial AI.
But the things that they're guiding for, especially with their TAMs, like this is actually is a pretty good stock for a re-rating, right? Especially when you think about the A6 chips.
And then, I didn't see that Google deal coming. The TPI deal, like I did not know that was going to come, and that is just blasting us The high day was like 191 or something, so we almost got to 200, but I do think it's going to eventually go to 200 if this does continue. But, yeah, give us a Why don't we give the audience a little bit of a background, cuz last time you we brought you on here, um, we you know, it's just a shorter segment, but this time we have the full time to basically focus on your strategy, your mentality, and how you've been playing the markets, how you've played in the past, and you're a pretty young dude. So, congratulations, first of all, um, for starting very young. I'm I'm much older, but why don't you give the audience a little bit of a background about, you know, who you are, like the type of field that you work in, how you got into the stock market, and where you saw where things went in the past, and how you're putting those themes in to bring to the future. You don't have to answer it all in one question, we can kind of make this a conversation, so go ahead. Sure. Sure, Sam. Thank you Thank you so much. Thanks for the intro, and yeah, I think, for me, I started around I think 2021 uh, for stock market. I Like, I currently work in tech as a in a biotech company for as a like in tech as a software engineer, but I started in 2021.
Uh, in 2021, I think the first thing I bought is Doge coin, the Doge coin. Then, I was like in a meme rally. 2021 was like crazy, everyone is making money. Then, I was like started. I think 2022, it's kind of bear market, that's where I was like little getting started at the time, but I think 2023 is the time where, like, you know, I completely getting started in the market. I was like, "Okay, I need to be a little serious serious about stocks." And I was like Um, um, the only thing uh with your brain you can make money, I feel like it's stock market. So, that's where I get started with uh stocks and I think the first 1 2 years has been couple rough for me.
And I think 2020 by mid-2024 by end of 2024 early 2025 I started getting good at it because uh until then I used to do only like technicals, right?
So, only purely technicals, nothing else.
Then when I started aligning like uh fundamentals with technicals and adding a layer of theme, that's where like you know, it gets uh it gets very interesting. So, I think uh around 2025 uh then I started picking like building a portfolio like 10 to 15 stocks, like top five stocks would be like I have certain rules like uh shouldn't be more than 20% a single stock. Then bottom five bottom seven would be like thematic names. Top five would be like a good growth companies for long term.
Something like that. Then I think 2025 I did did pretty well like 160% returns or something in 2025. I think 2026 is also going well.
And yeah, I think it's mostly about um uh just a little while. Yeah.
>> Okay. It's okay. [laughter] Yeah, right. Come on, man. You're humble as hell.
Yeah.
But uh I think most of my technicals uh work around like uh um around uh Stan Weinstein's stage analysis and William O'Neil CAN SLIM framework. That's where um um I started technicals. And I do have a like I had a good mentor. His name is Ravi. Uh his name is First Follow on Twitter. But uh I do have a good mentor.
Uh he helped me at uh during my earliest stages of my career. But yeah, I think uh uh by making a lot of mistakes I did I did like uh zero day trading, swing trading, options, and everything what not. Yeah, I did all that crap. I realized that for me it's it's not the game for me. Then I was like, "Okay, I'll just do shares.
Uh I can sleep peacefully at night.
That's That's something I think uh I can do with shares." So, that's where I get started.
Yeah, you know, I I've I've dabbled in basically every single type of derivative market. The only thing that I don't really play with currencies, but yeah, I I've I've been through all that, the zero DTEs and everything. I was doing zero DTEs before even COVID. Like, people just like [clears throat] learn what zero DTEs were during COVID cuz that was like a big thing with the option buying and everything, but I was doing that stuff even before COVID, like the weeklies and everything on Google.
Google when it was like $1,000 or something pre-split, right?
Like, it went all the way up to like 2,900 and then they had their split.
Like, I was doing when it was like $1,000. So, those were very expensive.
Amazon when like Amazon was like $1,500 or something pre-split. And like Microsoft when it was like $1.20, like back then, right? And it's crazy cuz that wasn't long till That wasn't too long ago. That was like less than 10 years ago, right? And Yeah.
Um It's been a COVID definitely changed the game for everything in my opinion. And it continues to be changed every single day. And you mentioned the 2022 bear market. Uh that was That was a learning lesson uh for a lot of people.
I mean, like what were you trading options during that time? Were you investing during that time? Like, what was happening during 2022?
2022 I wasn't like uh investing, but I was seeing the market was going down. I was I was literally seeing Bitcoin was at like 16k.
Uh then, I think uh I started with the most worst stocks, I think. I mean, it's not worst stocks. For me, I think it is.
The most lagging stocks, I think, PayPal and Alibaba. I started at that time investing those non-growth stocks. Then, I was like, it was lagging, but it's mostly shares. Um By holding those names for almost like 6 months, I realized like you cannot make any money in shares.
That's what my mentor told me in 2023.
Then I was like I switched it to options. Then when I did options, it's like wow, it's like boom and bust. You made money, but you can't for me I made money, but it's like after analyzing like two or three years by doing it by early 2025, I realized like okay, shares is something I'm really making money. Options is something I'm not making money. So I was like let's dump to let's dump options and let's do shares. That's where I think uh I changed my game. Yeah.
That's cool. That's cool. Uh on the audience like dude people love you. They're calling you like the goat. This dude is telling you to keep singing. I don't even know why people are [laughter] telling you to to sing. That's that's pretty funny. I don't know why. First of all >> [laughter] >> Yeah. Okay, so this dude thinks I got the P Diddy oil on my face. Listen I just put lotion on. All right, so of [laughter] course my face is going to be shiny. Like that's just the way it is.
All right, like it's I don't I don't know why these lights do this. It just does. But anyways, guys yeah, so let's say let's get into um some past plays that you've had. Uh I brought up Marvell in the beginning.
Now I think what a lot of you a lot of the audience is trying to understand here is not if Marvell is going to go to like $250. I'm sure a lot of people want to know. I've I've always been a proponent like look you don't give someone a fish every day. You teach them how to fish and they can feed themselves and I'm pretty sure you're part of that as well. Um and you mentioned volume price analysis and everything, but probably more in the fundamental side cuz you've been very bullish Marvell for quite some time.
Yeah. What brought you into Marvell? Cuz if I looked at your portfolio, you've been in Nevious since last October and you've held through all that crazy drawdown, right? Like we all have.
And what got you into Marvell? Were you looking at them before you saw those earnings or was it after the earnings and then you looked at the TA and stuff?
like kind of walk me through that process.
>> Yeah, sure. Good question. Good question, sir. I think for Marvell I watched earnings obviously. Earnings was the trigger. So I I've been watching Marvell for quite some time past two years. Like it's like it's like a stock everyone like think like it's a dead stock. It's not I mean it has every reason to be a dead stock like past a few years.
I think that revenue and EPS is like going flat or like 8% 10% growth. So the key for me is when I hear this Nvidia CEC event happened around like January or February 2026. I think Jensen like quite often mentioned that they are going to move away from like traditional copper to the CPU custom custom optics custom packaged optics. So I think for me the trigger has been started there.
So as we know like inside a inside a inside a data center and GPUs we have these data clusters, right? So for those data cluster to move traditional ways like going using copper interconnects.
So but to increase the latency and you know efficiency, they bought up like let's use CPUs optics. So that's where So when you look at optics, right? So when you look at optics everyone look at like the traditional companies like Coherent Lumentum and there is one more few other companies AOI and all these companies.
But for me is when I when I start to invest in any stock, I look at a I I need to have multiple reasons, right? So the first reason is a CPO and you might wonder how does the CPO like you know CPO theme will align to Marvell. That's what brings us like Marvell has acquired Celesta which is one of the decent player in CPOs CPO theme. Celesta which is a private company they acquired like three months ago before the team is picking up. So, they were little ahead of the game. That's one point. And the second point is you know these Google's what's this chip Trianeum I think Google Trianeum and so Amazon Trianeum and Google TPUs, yeah.
Amazon Trianeum and Google TPUs. Those chips so they want to eventually these hyper scalers they want to move away from not to have that much dependency on Nvidia. They want to build their own custom chips. So, in order to build their own custom chips they need to have custom ASIC chips. So, there are only two major uh major players in custom ASIC. One is Broadcom, second is Marvell. So, then I was like, "Okay, you had the custom ASIC, then you had the optics layer. So, you have these two which is the main fundamental of the story. Then you have the earnings acceleration. If you listen to any of the past earnings calls from the Marvell, they're like, "Hey, we're going to like, you know, increase our guidance." They've been saying the same thing for past three quarters. I was like, "Let's look at the fundamentals."
When I look at the fundamentals like 26, 27, 28 it's like blasting. It's like 11 billion, 15, and 18 billion. So, it's like a lot of numbers. I think revenue when I see revenue re-rated or EPS has been increasing by analyst for the forward guidance that's what the key triggers. Then then the third part comes to technicals. The technicals is obviously like forming a base and formed a big candle and all this stuff. But, yeah, this is I mean, I think it's a lot. But, yeah, this is my approach usually. Yeah.
Yeah, so I mean, I was looking the same thing, too. So, this is like one of my favorite setups and this is what I've learned from from one of my from from Stock Talk on this one. And I reference him a lot because I've learned a lot from him. You know, teach a man a fish, right? So, I was looking Oh, that's the intraday chart.
Um when I was looking at when we were looking at Marvell when you brought it up and around the earnings this happened, right? It popped up here out of nowhere it popped up above its above its 100-day moving average. Like ignore this, right? Ignore this cuz everyone's going to be looking at that.
Everyone's going to be looking at that the whole time. Right? So see how these EMAs break up above all the moving averages? When I saw that cuz this was like around the time when I got in over here and I think that's around the time you got in.
So look at this massive base here. And you you you that's that's one of the titles of the show on on the Wolf Channel like the base, right?
>> Yeah.
Look at this massive consolidation for for years for years.
>> Yeah.
Look at all these moving averages in a tight range here, right? Obviously you had 2025 where like things fell, came up, fell back, you know, it's just been basing out here.
And then you started getting massive support on the 20-day moving average over here. You started seeing these EMAs curl up. This was like the big tell right here. This was like holy cow. And then you had the fundamentals change, right? Their earnings. So like you said, Marvell was it was a pretty decent growing stock but they weren't like super profitable or anything. They were in the A6 sector.
Um we weren't even sure if they were going to be on Tranium 4 even Tranium 5 when it comes out later on with Amazon.
And they haven't even denied it or affirmed it to this point. We're just this the market's just assuming that's the case.
And that was their thing and they're also in networking as well. They're like a baby Broadcom, which is what Chip Stock Investor says a lot. And that was like the that was the D 40. And then they acquired Celestial AI, which is more in photonics and CPO, right? So that was like something where okay, you saw all of these photonic stocks work.
The AOIs, the Light AXTI's, T-Sems, which I don't want to get into T-Sem, right? Because like you're in that one, you know, that was a that was a crazy run. But the thing is is that like you have the charts that support the thesis on every timeframe, right?
>> Yes. Yes.
>> On the monthly timeframe, too. And like everyone's looking at like this like no, no, no, we were looking at it here, right?
>> Yeah.
And then you have the fundamentals.
And those two things put together is what makes the whole thesis. And >> Exactly.
Dude, it was like the timing was insane.
Like it just blew up. And then someone mentioned someone mentioned in Cratos, right? So there's also a sterile lab and there's Cratos, but they focus more on the ethernet transceivers as well as the re-timers. Um Cratos is get So I'm thinking of Coherent as well, which is more in the optic space, but like all these things come together where it's no longer just about the networking. It's starting to become also the photonic space, but this all has to do with one thing, inference, right?
Inference is the key driver here. It is a demand that keeps growing with Anthropic, OpenAI, and everything. And then the hyperscalers are catering toward the inference. And this is the reason why Fastly was such a good play at the time. Like obviously today it's I thought that last quarter was just thesis breaking, right? And thank goodness we're out of that one. But this is really the core theme of the market, it's AI. And then you look at the specific sector. So like in your case, like what were some sectors you were looking at before that made you really hone in the ASICs and the photonics?
Like what are the sectors I'm looking at at the time?
>> Yeah, cuz cuz at the time it was the it was the photonics and it was the ASICs, right? So what How How did you drill down, basically?
Yeah, I think um so the first approach I would go with is like when you when you see GPUs and all, people will look at like, you know, hey, uh we need Nvidia, Avago, or AMD chips, that's all. Like that's where like I mean obviously there's a lot of bottle like accounts on X recently which is incredible. But yeah, I think once you see those often the chips, I mean it needs to go like eight to seven eight seven to eight different layers in the entire GPU stack, right? So once you have those chips, who will be the biggest So we have this hyperscalers is like that spending crazy amount like 600 billion 700 billion dollars but this year. So I know like we'll get most of the money will go to the Nvidia and Ambuja.
Nvidia and Ambuja will have the customers, right? So who will go where where does the money will go?
Then then it makes drill down to memory.
We can see it by price action. Then you have the Sandisk, Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung. Then what's next?
Then the connectivity layer like CPO CPO customer custom package optics like all these Marvell, Ciena Light, Lumentum and all.
Then what's the next layer? The custom ASIC chips. And we have like different different layers like six to seven layers in the entire AI infrastructure.
Then who will host these servers like Dell? I think who are the infrastructure plays like Nvidia or Core Weave or all these stocks. So you have to go layer by layer and understand and I think we are at a point where we've been all through those teams and we are ending we're going down to the power management. I think grid infrastructure team or grid infrastructure layer.
I think that's what the next interesting thing going to be. But yeah, it's all about like how you go drill down into the list. Like chips, memory, optics and I have a separate [clears throat] watch list for these all stocks. Then you have this thing called assembly and packaging. For we have Amkor, ASE X. Then you have these testing companies called Cohu, Form Factor and these semi semi testing companies and memory testing companies. So, we all have I did spend a decent amount of time in semiconductor. So, that's something I've been eyeing on like research work on semiconductor for past like 1 year around like June 2025. I was like getting started, but I think doing fine with those semiconductor names.
Yeah. Yeah, man. Um I still think that this whole thing has room to run. Like but unfortunately, I don't know if it's going to be a straight line, but I definitely think that the themes are are pretty big.
Someone keeps on talking about RXT right now, Rackspace. We'll get into that another time. Uh right now we're kind of focusing on uh these things right now.
So, um we did talk about Marvell and you mentioned the energy theme, right? So, the energy theme is something that you did publicly come out and say that you have a position um Forjin Power Solutions, yeah. And they did have earnings this morning and those were insane freaking numbers, okay? Like I I don't know if anyone expected that. So, um you got into Forjin pretty early.
Um that's something that I was looking to get exposure into the energy space.
It was Forjin, it was many other names that I was looking at. And uh I mean, I really honed it down to Forjin and I actually sized that thing up um >> Nice.
>> around like $41. I was like, you know what?
There is a lot of I I don't want to broaden out too much in the energy space because it's better just to like hone down and maybe like one or two players over here because I feel like they're all going to win and Bloom Energy has already been discovered, right? Yeah.
The Let's Let's open up the uh Let's open up that tweet you have with uh Forjin. I saved it somewhere. Hold on, let me just look for real quick.
And why don't Why don't you talk about Forjin uh Power Solutions real quick?
Yeah. I think so for them uh So, the way how I got that name into radar is like I was looking at charts.
Basically, most of my ideas comes from the charts first. So, I was looking at that name that recently IPO'd, and it's like it's like it's trading above IPO VWA, and it's it's about to break out the base of the IPO. That's like technically for a new IPO name, it's very strong. So, when I see this stuff, then I was like, "Let's look into this background thematic story of it." Then I was like, "They generate If you go all the way down, Sam, if you go all the way down in the tweet, you will see one image."
All the way You'll see that first image, yeah. The first image. You see that When you have these hyperscalers, the the logic is very simple. When you have the hyperscalers, they need a lot of new data centers. If you need a lot of data centers, you need a lot of chips and power. So, if you need a lot of power, you need the all the switch gear, e-house, low-voltage distribution, all this all those things. They'll make that product. So, I think they will get all these products. They They design and produce these products, and they sell to this data centers, or they host this to the to those data centers. And probably they get They get What do you call it?
Uh bid from the from those hyperscaler companies. So, that's that's where it was like, you know, one of the key key player in this data center power power theme. Then I was like, "Let's look at fundamentals." Fundamentals actually pretty good. They're like profitable company. Their net income is positive. I think their free cash flow is positive.
Their revenue is growing like 20 to 25% for next 3 years.
EPS is going good, and they did beat revenue 20% this quarter. And I think they have this IPO theme, then power is the main bottleneck, and fundamentals, technicals, all of them are aligned. Yeah.
I think that's where I was like, "Okay, this is something I I there is one more thing I read it somewhere.
Even if you order any power grading equipments, they won't be available until 2027 mid or something. They're like fully locked up. Not this company and most of the companies like Eaton and all those companies.
So, yeah. I think that's where I get started interested in this name.
Yeah, this this is a really good one to be in. I was very surprised how they were able to consistently or continue growing at 100% over here.
And also the adjusted EBITDA margins are really good. I mean, obviously this isn't going to let This is how much it grew. Obviously, you know, they are going to be expanding on the profitability and you know, obviously this is adjusted basis.
Um but it is good to see that they're definitely headed in the right direction in terms of profitability very quickly.
Uh one thing also when it comes to Forgeron is that its valuation is not actually too demanding. Cuz like there's like there's a lot of stocks out there that you know, their valuations have gotten pretty egregious. Like, you know, some people they look at they look at the P and they're just like, oh, well, the P is like 84 times.
Like, okay, hold on. First of all, this company is growing It grew at over 100% last quarter. And before that they grew at 200%. You can't look at PE when you're looking at that stuff. You look more at the price of sales, right? So, if we look on the forward basis, they're trading at nine times, right? People are like, oh, that's that's still very expensive. But they just grew at 100% last quarter. So, you need to factor that in, right? And it's also people who look at net income. We can talk about net income in a little bit. And people are like, it's trading at egregious multiples. Like, guys, they're growing like 400 plus percent. Like, come on.
You can't factor that in. You You can't expect Yeah, when you have a company that's growing that quickly, you need to look like a year in advance. You can't forecast based on today's metrics because it's going to be way higher later on, right? So, Yeah. I do think that the guidance that they provided is really good. So, if I go down here to If I go down here to their guidance they raise their guidance significantly from last year. So they're expecting 1.4 billion dollars in in revenue by the end of this year.
So today that puts them at a market cap of 13. So they're trading at 13 times forward but they're growing at 100 times. Actually they're growing at 100% plus right now.
>> 100% yeah.
That itself if they're able to double the year after that and that basically cuts their valuation in half on a 2027 perspective, right? So then that's five times. Like that that's one thing that people need to understand and also considering how much they beat this quarter you better believe they're going to beat next quarter, Yeah, exactly. Until I'll go ahead. Go ahead. No, no, no. Sorry, go ahead.
Yeah, no, I I was That that's it. I mean I was just going to say like these are the things that kind of >> Yeah, I I I was about to add a like a a small point to your point. I think a lot of people misunderstand like I'm in for me personally P is not price earnings. It's not the metric I would look at. I would look at revenue. I would I would divide fundamentals into two parts. One is income statement, second is balance balance sheet. Income statement, you only need two things.
What's the revenue? What's the EPS? For from a growth investor perspective, okay? From the growth side.
What's the revenue? What's the EPS? Is it growing 15, 20, or 30 percentage?
Good.
Then go to the balance sheet. What's the net income? What's the free cash flow?
Are they positive? Okay, good. What's their debt and what's their assets? So they That's it. These are the metrics I look at. These are the simple metrics I look at. And the most common mistake is people try to compare one sector, one name to a different sector, different name. It's like comparing apple to banana. The apple to oranges or bananas. It's like it doesn't make sense. And the second point I want to stress this out is a All all stocks that made like 200, 300, 500, 1000% moves, they are expensive.
They are expensive when the time you buy.
Because that's the time that like many don't want to involve. Even if you take Nvidia in 2023 or 2024, Nvidia is growing at forward P of forward P or regular P of 70 to 80% is at that time.
Even Nvidia made like 300 300% run from even with a But look at Nvidia now, forward P is like 30 or 40, I think.
See, like valuations will like, you know, compress eventually when the company will keep on outperforming. But the important point everyone needs to remember is you need to look and like, you know, expensive. I mean, fundamentals, yeah, I get I get it. Like even Palantir or Hood, they are expensive when they are like $10 or $20 when they made like Palantir at like 50 or 60, I said like P like 200 or 300. I mean, it's like crazy. But look at now, like I mean, it's a different case, but what I'm trying to say is that all great stocks will look expensive. Read this from William O'Neil book. He literally mentioned that all growth and explosive stocks are expensive at earlier stage.
Eventually, they will compress because price will match, earnings will match, and valuations will compress. So, all great stocks will be at rich valuations.
What's that? William O'Neil, How to Make Money in Stocks. Oh, yeah, yeah. I have the book in the book, yeah.
How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil. That's my favorite book.
Yeah, I know. You've mentioned that one more than a few times. I want to Yeah, I'll put I'll put that I'll put that in the in the chat in case people want to check it >> Yeah.
I'll just throw this right there in case people want to check that one out.
I'm assuming this is this is the one, right?
Yeah, that's the one. Okay, yeah. So, in case people want to check that one out.
Yeah, so um no, I I I do agree. You have You can't [clears throat] just you know, you can look at the charts or you can look at the fundamentals, but I think the real alpha is looking at both. And like you said in your past, you were trading zero TTs in the beginning. I think a lot of people are started out in the stocks by just trading options. So like they're basically looking at charts, right? Or they're in a or they're in a Discord where they're just getting like alerts where buy now, sell now, buy now, sell now. Like yeah, that's kind of how we all start. And then as you start to make these mistakes, which we've both made a lot of mistakes, you start to realize like what works. And yeah, this is what works. I feel like this is what's been working for a while because it goes in up and down directions, right? It tells you when to get into a stock and then when to get out of it. Right? And we we both have experiences where we've gotten out of stocks and then they've proceeded to run and we're like, "Oh crap, we totally [laughter] missed out." And then they have a quarter and they're down 45% and you're like, "Okay, I I dodged a bullet there." Fastly, right? Like that that was one where you know, you got out and I was like, "No, no, no, it's bouncing over, it's bouncing." And like and then I eventually got out cuz I eventually got stopped out again at the 50 day moving average. And then [clears throat] it proceeded to run to $32 and I was like, "Oh shoot. Like I totally messed up here. I totally messed up."
And then they had that crazy quarter where they had a freaking Duolingo headline on there.
And the stock I don't know what the stock is at right now. What What's Fastly at right now?
>> it's at like 25 or something. No, it's at $17. Oh god, I I didn't check that one at all. It's at 17 freaking dollars.
And you know, the the thing is when it comes to these stocks is is that there is a inherent risk investing in mid caps and small caps. Inherent risk. Like people think that like, you know, these are just as safe as buying [snorts] Amazon, right? Like no, they're not cuz they can do this. Amazon will not drop 50% in one day that unless it's there's like some sort of catastrophic event.
And this is why we use moving averages and fundamentals as a way to stop yourself out. But with certain things I hold more true to the technicals. So, I'm assuming like which I'm assuming you use like the similar technicals than I do because I look at things you look at, right? So, so what if we just looked at this, right? Cuz a lot of people are feeling FOMO around here. Yeah.
You got in around here, $19. Yeah. All right. So, what would be your thing to get you out of this stock?
I think mostly technicals. I think like fundamentals will tell you the story, but technicals is the is the indicator I would use for entries and exits. Technicals. So, if let's say if I want to enter, you see that beautiful bike candle with a lot of volume. It was good, then you had this 9:00 a.m. a test, clean 9:00 a.m. a test that got entered and then it was good.
Yeah. So, if yeah, if I have to remove the position like for these type of new leaders and they're trying to emerge into a stage to up trends, I need to if they break 50-day moving average, then it's done for me.
If it's a if it if it breaks 50-day moving average, it's done. Like at least for short term. Because see, the new leaders like these Fastly and all, once they form a peg, if you compare Marvel with Fastly, both are same. Like they both created power earnings gap candle, then they pulled pulled the 9:00 a.m. a under and all. But I think Marvel like gone up like run like crazy. For Fastly, I think for me to get out, I think it's a technical so when it lost 50-day moving average with volume and when it has that Anthropic news for Akamai, I think Akam and this one the ocean and net I think when those pulled those are big big red candles like with a a of 3x. When I see more distribution and accumulation, that's where I was like, "Okay, I'm done." 25 Losing 21-day moving average is like first sign first sign of short-term weakness. Then once you lost 21-day moving average, then losing 50-day moving average is like you're done. Like when you see a lot of volume, and it shouldn't be like, you know, 0.5x volume than average volume or like half of the volume or 1x volume.
You need to have 2x and 3x volume.
That's what exactly happened with that candle. And I was like, "These are like warning signs." And I was like, "Okay, we had a good run, but I gave up like, you know, back to like what break even or something." That volume, yeah, that is concerning.
So then I was like, "Okay, let me remove." And uh sometimes you And the one of the most important thing I think you might not have this one. I think IPO VWAP, uh Sam. Yeah, I think you have I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I see I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I >> I Yeah, VWAP, uh I think try to set it for VWAP. Yeah, or or yeah, you can try that one.
Or you can have a indicator I don't know, like on the left-hand side I will see indicators. I don't see it here. Uh It's It's okay. It's okay. Okay. Yeah, so the IPO VWAP projection, so that's one of the most important thing. Used to be I have a selector criteria like above 200-day moving average, but when I was I learned this from Ravi, I think First Fellow is name I think it's First Fellow. So I learned from him that IPO VWAP is like my core fundamental technical frame, like indicator technical framework indicator.
I will go long only the stocks that trade above IPO VWAP. I'll tell you why.
So VWAP means volume weighted average price. So the way how it works uh when you have IPO date and you draw the line from the IPO to like, you know, just click on right click just click on the VWAP and click on the IPO date, it will draw the line. Once you draw the line >> Um Oh oh oh, okay.
Think, let me >> And then, it's in here?
Yeah, I think or else you can just pull up my Yes, yes, yes, this is the one.
Yep, this is the one.
Yeah.
You don't need to send everything. You can just click Okay, click on okay.
And Go to the IPO date. Okay, oh, that's the indicator. Okay, VWAP. Can you try to Uh the second icon, can you click the second icon? It's okay, sir. Or else you can just go to my profile and search for the Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Go, go ahead. Keep on talking. I'll look for it.
>> Yeah, so you can search for the fly video. I have a video called fly on a fly stock. It has an IPO VWAP. You can search on my X.
Uh Um I think Yeah, I had a lot of browsers. [clears throat] So, the VWAP plays a huge role because a lot of funds use a VWAP like even Ken Griffin mentioned in Citadel Congress hearing a VWAP. So, the way how it works, it will combine volume with price. So, uh that's not the one. I think I'll have a video. Can you go back again? Go down a little bit.
Maybe it's one of these.
Yeah. I'll check.
>> It's okay. I mean, you can pick uh recent charts any of the uh you can you can search fly as well. You can search fly.
>> okay.
>> Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, so open the first chart. Yeah, perfect.
You see that rejection when it tried to uh when it tried to like uh during the 2026 January.
Yeah.
>> You saw the red line rejection. So, the way how it works is uh just like 200 moving average, VWAP is a very important tool. So, you need stock to trade above IPO VWAP. Palantir Foods are fit. Trust me, check those charts, draw the IPO VWAP, and all the big moves happened when the stock trades above IPO VWAP. Any stock.
So, VWAP plays a huge role. So, IPO VWAP is like IPO is the anchor point for the VWAP. So, what else can anchor? You can anchor to the uh 2022 bear bear market lows. You can anchor to the uh 2025 lows or year-to-date lows or like 2008 lows.
It depends on what you anchor on.
So, I think that's one of the reason why I use IPO VWAP. I don't know why we ended up in IPO VWAP. I I I I apologize.
Yeah, I I I don't use IPO VWAP. I don't even use VWAP. Um I'm pretty simple when it comes to technicals. So, I was like, I don't know why I spent so long trying to look for it. That's That's That's really That's really cool. That That's That's really interesting how you picked that out. I got to take a look at that one. I mean, I think a lot of people put a lot of precedents over like RSI, MACD MACD divergence, you know, and drawing all these crazy lines and everything. And yeah, they they work. You know, I I think it depends on who you are cuz you're mentioning at the beginning of the stream like it depends on who you are. You know what works for you. So, that's your alpha. And you create your core rules, right? And you just You just don't break the rules. And Yeah. I have my core rules too, and they might not be at the same as yours. And I break my rules all the time, right? Like I try not to, but I break my rules all the time. And a lot of that is the degeneracy side of lotto plays to earnings. Like I I do it sometimes and it doesn't work out, but but my rule is that if I am going to break it, then I do it with a very small size, so it doesn't matter. So, I I I have done earnings plays, and I've lost like 10 basis points of portfolio, 25 basis points of portfolio. And it's like not a big deal, right? Well, then like you you find these stocks where um you think there's a lot of potential here where the where the base is is very close to where it's trading at. And also on top of that, where where a lot of things hasn't been re-rated into the stock yet and they're in second phase and so on and you go hard, right? And I made Marvel a very large position and we saw the same thing for arm. And it's crazy because it's like it's like dude, this guy it's like this guy is always looking at the same stuff that I'm looking at. I don't even tell anyone, right? Like I post stuff later on and like, you know, you start and then like holy crap, like this guy is like really good and I just I just started talking to you like just a few months ago and we've already been in a couple things with each other and arm is probably one of the most recent ones we Oh, no, FPS was one of the most recent ones and um I mean that was one that you suggested me to look at when we were chatting up.
And yeah, like when I looked at it I was like, man, I just I don't know about this because they just IPO'd, right? And they we don't know too much about this company, but I did want exposure in the energy space. So one thing that we're both looking at right now is the robotic space and I don't know if you own Syna.
I've owned Syna or Synaptics for a while. That one's been pretty good, but I am also looking for additional exposure and you've mentioned a couple of other stocks. So I'm going to need to take a look at that one and a few other ones, but I'm not trying to go hard right now.
However, you know, there are some stuff that I think I want to get rid of out of my portfolio, but I think one of the spaces that I did get into recently was telecom.
Do you have any telecom exposure?
I don't think so. I have like a few things. Like yeah, I have things. I have like robotics, semi, so some space and I have a couple other things.
So I don't have telecom, I think.
So there is this one telecom company that I'm in. I got in I got in two days ago ahead of earnings and it's it's a it's a micro cap. Like the 69 it's a 73 million dollar company.
So I sized it very small. Like this is one thing that I always do is that I size it very small when there's inherent risk in a stock, right? And the inherent risk here is that this is a micro cap. A hedge fund can come over here and just blow this thing up if they feel like it.
So, I size it small, right? But, the the benefit is that if the thing blows up, as in like goes up, I don't need that big of a position to make a lot of money off it, right? And a lot of people are mentioning KNOC, and the only reason why I'm staying out of KNOC is because like everyone knows about this one, and it already based out and everything, and it already took off. So, it's not really one that I want to get into with a small size. Like, I'm not looking to attribute like a 5% position. Like, if I were to get into KNOC, I would wait until it hits critical moving average here, and it bases out again, and then I'd make it big, right? So, that way the floor is high. But, with something like uh with something like this, with Amphenol Tech, this this has been basing out for probably a few months now, which is good. But, if you if you look at the inflection that they made here along with other companies in the telecom sector as well, those have already been doing well. So, you don't need to be like early in a theme. You just need to find what hasn't been priced in, and those are the ones you get into. But, you know, I'm not going to go ahead and like tell everyone to go all in this thing. Like, this was literally a 1.5% position. Um I'm up pretty decently on it already, but I took I bought it before earnings. So, like there's the inherent risk of buying something before print, which is how I fell in love with FPS, but I think that was a lot less riskier than this one. And there's also the risk of being in a small cap or a micro cap in this case, right? So, I think people it's good that people understand these things because look, when you deal with the small caps and the micro caps, that's how you can make the doubles and the triples and the multi-baggers in a very short period of time. Like, you don't get an Nvidia or Palantir all the the Like, that doesn't happen often. But, sometimes, you can get those multi-baggers in a very short period of time by being in the small and mid-cap space. And that's what FPS was, right? And it's still I mean it's not a mid-cap anymore technically speaking it's above $10 billion, but it's still a fairly fairly small small market cap.
People have asked me about Vistra, right? Or CEG or Constellation Energy Group. It's like those are Well, Vistra's like a $50 billion company and they they have focused mostly on consumer versus like enterprise versus more like wholesale the hyperscale stuff which they have their focus on more.
And CEG is like a $100 billion plus company, right? And they're not discovering anything new like one of these photonic spaces or anything or like Micron where there's like a a massive comp you could trade or a thing like this company's been around for a while, right?
So, those are the kind of things that I look for. Now, um to kind of a lot of people were asking like the next things to look at. So, you know, telecom is probably something. Energy is still good. Like what what I I hate it sucks when people ask about price targets and I try not to give them.
But what I try to think in terms of price like and I know you don't give them either. But what I try to think in terms of price targets is on on a scale of considering that a theme could continue running, right? Yeah.
Looking at 4G. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, price targets it's like like I mean See, it it all changes like this is I don't want to I don't want to point out figures straight away on X. It's like common thing. People put crazy price targets on X.
Some big accounts I know, they put crazy price targets and like I saw some dude like talking about Duolingo it's going to $1 trillion market cap. Just just some dude. Just some dude. Yeah.
>> [laughter] >> Yeah, I think everyone knows who you're talking about, dude.
>> Yeah. knows who you're talking It's like I mean, no offense. It's like it's like ridiculous. I mean, it I don't know. It might go I'm I'm in I don't know like it's it's sounds so so so silly. It's like That's why that's one of the reason I don't give price targets. See, you always have to be like under promise, over deliver. That's how you have to like, you know, win win hearts of others or like win hearts of retail investors or any investors. You always have to put the low ball and like, you know, keep killing it. So, the reason why I don't like to give price targets, see, the initial price target I had on Nvidia is like 200. Right now it's at 220 or something. I've been holding like still holding. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
The thing is you really don't know how much higher stock can go. Even let's say if you bought who that 10 and your price target is 20 and who knows it like 150 at the top like October 2025. So, the point I'm trying to make is you never know how much higher or a lower stock can go. So, the better thing is uh you can like, you know, follow the market, right? So, you follow the market, you follow the market conditions, how it's going, is whether this market is extended, whether it's trading above key moving averages like spy and Qs. You need to make decisions based on market conditions, not like uh fix a targets. I don't know some people how they give like if it's a $10 stock, they'll give price target like 70. I don't even know if it makes sense. If it makes sense If it If it makes sense it doesn't in our company and it's like a $30 company.
It's like, what are you doing? Like, why are you saying that? You know, it's just you're misleading people because there's no way it can be a $1 trillion company. Like, no one could have forecast that Nvidia would be a $1 trillion even a $5.5 trillion company. Like, there were people out there who were saying that and then today they're going to be like, "Hey, remember when I said this is a $5 trillion company?" It's like, buddy, you hit one in a million and you probably said many stocks were $1 trillion companies. You can't make that judgment and take those flyers from that one situation. Yeah, but now I I I I I I I I I I was I was I was making one one one post on X saying that, "Hey, like, you know, all FinTwit influencers, just be, like, you know, a little responsible with your reach." And I made this post.
Even Amit commented on the post saying that, "Hey, I 100% agree with it." It's just like when you're having, like, building a, like, you know, account like on X, like, just if you're being a little responsible, and people will, like, you know, uh I mean, the point is if you if you set big targets, that will change the people who started to investing. There are a lot many people on X, like, they they literally start like one this year or like 1 year ago, 6 months ago. You cannot set the expectations so high.
People will have that expectations, and stock might go to that level or not.
It's okay. But they're like, "I'll wait until that price will go." I mean, who knows who will go that price? No one knows that it will go to like 70 or 100 or whatever the market cap is. Just need to manage your risk and follow the trend. Once the trend is, like, you know, going to end by, like, you know, [clears throat] the seeing distribution or sell-off, like, you know, blow-off tops and all this If you read that William O'Neil book, you'll get an you'll get you'll get to understand what I'm trying to say. So, yeah, it's it's very silly thing to say, like, those people who put targets, like, like, ridiculous targets. I know.
It's I mean, like, people ask me a lot of the times when people ask, um "What's the price target?" Right?
It's likely because they just got in, and they're hoping it's a significantly higher number from where they got in.
And I think one of the things is that you need to know why you get into something, right? Is it a trade? Is it a long-term hold? You know, and there's so many other factors to answer that question that, like, I can't answer that question for you.
Should I get in now? Like, I I That is like the one question I get all the time. Should I get in? Can I still get in? Right? And it's like, I can't answer that for you. Because I don't know about you. I don't know your goals are. I don't know what your risk parameters are. I don't know how much money you're dealing with. I don't know what you Like, I don't know all this stuff. And I could only answer that for myself. So, the best thing that I can do as an influencer and as someone who manages my own portfolio and someone who sells a service, too, is like, I can only tell you what I'm doing, right? And plus, I'm not a financial advisor, so it would be illegal for me to tell you what to do.
But But the one thing that I do is I know what something's going to be when I get into it. Is this a short-term trade? Is this a medium-term trade? Is this a long-term trade? If it's a long-term trade, I'm going to focus much more on the fundamentals to get me out of this than technicals. If it's a short-term trade, I'm putting way more weighting on the technicals than anything, right? And it's like finding what works for you, too. Like, someone got Someone gets into Nvidia and they're just like, "What's your price target for Nvidia?"
And I There's nothing wrong with asking that question, you know? The thing is is that it has already ran so much and the story is so well known and the earnings are next week, right? You're You're hoping that they come out with something that'll blow it out of the water to justify your reason for buying the stock right now. Like, there's so much psychology involved in all this that I hate to tell people when something's a good buy or when it's not. But what I do say to people is like, "Look, if you missed that in the stock and you really want to get in, take a look at the 9 EMA on the daily chart. And that could be your first point of entry to slide into it. And then take a look at the 21 EMA. That's probably something that's a better indicator. Like, this is actually a bad example because this has basically gone parabolic. But if I look at um Circle is a good example, right?
Yeah. Circle Circle's a So, people were looking for like a play, right? Like, I It's It's like me and Ariel like always in the same place too, which is just so weird. Like and there's like a couple of other guys, right? So, I'm in this one, too. And I don't know if you're in it. I don't want to like Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, I'm I'm in circle. Yeah. Okay, okay. So, just like I hate cup and handles, but this is the most obvious cup and handle. [laughter] But, on top of that, if you look at Bitcoin, it's teetering like it is The 200-day moving average.
the 200-day moving average over and over and over and over and over again. And people are like, "Oh, it's going to reject this thing." Guys, this is the first time Bitcoin's testing the 200-day moving average 200-day moving average, you know what? Yeah. For like and it's testing it, testing it, testing it. When this thing breaks out, what do you think is going to happen to circle? Especially with the Clarity Act passing and Trump basically posting about the Clarity Act today, right?
>> Yeah. Yeah, there's a chance this might get sold off, but look at the 90 MA.
Support, support, support. They won't let it close under it. Like these are the things that tell you the good entry and your stop loss should be the 50 the the 21 EMA, if anything. 21 and 50, yeah, yeah. close or if you want to be very conservative, your stop loss is a close below the 21 weekly, right?
>> Yes. That's like your line in sand.
That's the 20% drawdown from here, so that's a good amount. So, maybe you want to be in shares, calls, whatever it is.
Like that is how you figure out your risk parameters. You don't buy here and hope it's going to go higher.
Yeah.
>> Because now your margin of safety is extremely wide, right?
>> Yep. Now, you have an additional 20% to go higher if it falls down to 223.
Like that Those are Those are the risk parameters that I always follow to not chase, right? Chasing is just never a good idea. Because when you chase, usually people chase things out of FOMO, and they don't want it they it's fear of missing out, right? And the problem with chasing or FOMOing into something is that it's very likely you did not build your conviction in this.
So, if you buy at $140 like it was at the other day and you bought out of FOMO and now you're sitting at a 17% drawdown about or 15 13% drawdown now, you might sell at the worst time possible because now you're at the bottom of that margin of safety, but you're deep in the red on it and then it just takes off and you're just like holy crap and then you FOMO again. Like that's the psychology behind all this, which is the reason why I wind up being patient, but two it's like have your rules, have your core rules >> Yeah. and try to stick to it as much as possible. Don't break your rules like I break mine stuff like every week.
I mean but yeah, if you're going to break your rules, size it right.
>> This yeah, yeah. You're you're doing good you're doing very well, Sam. Like I think yeah, you mentioned pretty good point like when it comes to discipline and mindset it's like we need to be like little careful, right? So, like if I if I add a position like I generally know what would be my entry.
I think am I lost?
Huh?
Oh, okay. Okay. Okay. So, yeah. When I when I enter any position like for a swing trade or long-term hold or like thematic investing or whatever it is, I would know like what's my entry and stop it all depends, right? So, you I mean so, if you do swing trading, I agree like you can have 21 EMA with the distribution or VWAP from the lows as a stop or 50-day moving average or whatever it is. You have your own framework. For me, I don't look at the stops that way. I have like multiple factors. Like for example, I removed Grab like a while ago and I bought Marvel at that time. When I removed my Grab, I was like I will give my investments of my like whatever the names I have will enough time. Like I have So, one of the most important thing I think in investing or trading is having a extra pain tolerance and having a little bit of extra patience.
If you have both of those, you will do very well in the markets. It's just that you have little more life like time span like some people will have a little like if they buy a trade or they buy a stock, they want to up like 50 or 100% in a month or 2 months. I mean, it's happening right now, but it won't happen forever. It's just that when you give a when you enter a stock or anything like just give it a little time like let it I mean, for me if I buy an investment like uh for me when I bought like what's the investment? I think there are some stocks like when I bought like Texas Instruments take Texas Instruments as an example. I know that's a very good analog theme. It has the robotics drones theme and they're the critical player in analog. They they want 20% of the entire market share of analog. So when I bought it 220 when it's breaking out and it ended up as a failed breakout uh like uh it's like almost down like 15% from my trade I think. For most people will look at 200 and moving average and literally the stock bounced off from the April 2025 uh VWAP close.
So I was like my thesis were were very much strong on this and uh I think >> thing's a $300 stock already. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We bought it like 220 or something. I held through I think it's it's going to I think it's it's it's a it's a $400 stock and the people who are in semiconductor they think like this like crazy. I think you can check all these MCHP, Texas Instruments, all these analog stocks.
MCHP Yeah, we know. I'm in I'm in on.
Oh, okay, okay, okay, okay. I'm sorry.
>> [laughter] >> I've been in on since $47 and I'm just riding it, right? Like no, I hear you and you know what? To be honest, every single good thing that comes out of Texas Instruments, it brings this whole sector up. Yeah, cuz Texas Instruments is the biggest player in analog power sector. Yeah.
And this company is crazy man like when I done the work, this is like February 2026. See, doesn't matter. Market goes up, market goes down. You always have to look up to good ideas. Even William O'Neil said multiple times, like uh people tends to ignore stocks in bear markets, but no.
Bear market, bull market, whatever the market, you always need to have that hunger to look at the stocks, and try to find the next big ideas, because a lot of great companies will bottom and form a great base, cup and handle during the bear market loss.
So, I think Texas Instruments I think that's going to fall that's going to be like $400 or four $450 stock. Yeah. So, but when I when I when I wrote a pieces on Texas Instruments, my initial price was like 220 when I bought, and my target is like 300. But I'm still holding. People might You said 300 is your target, you why you holding?
Because it's it's going the trend is going well. You just need to hold until the trend ends.
How when the trend ends, you just like, you know, might might take some chips off the table.
But when the trend is your like on your side, you just just ride along. Yeah. I hear you, dude. You don't People who sell stocks because they went up so much, they're usually the ones who um regret it later on. And I've made that mistake, you know, more than a few times, but the stock that I didn't make that mistake with was Nevius, right? So, I had trimmed like 10% off my Nevius position when it was like 120 dollars or something. And then it dropped to like 80 dollars, 7 dollars, and I was like, man, I'm a genius, you know? But it was only 10%, so it wasn't a big deal. So, I still experienced a drawdown.
And then now it's here at 220, it like 230 today, and people are like just selling out of it, right? And that's fine if you want to do that, but I I don't I like you said, you know, if a stock is winning and if the trend is up, then like don't sell it. Just let your winners run. And then what you do is you sell your laggards. Right? Like I had a I had a podcast about the other day.
It's like don't cut your flowers and water the weeds. Like, that is the one thing that Peter Lynch says not to do, and people do it anyway. It's just human nature to end up giving in to like these urgencies and these wills, right? So, the market just closed, and I think we're about to close this tonight cuz it is the top of the hour, but really appreciate you coming on to here, man.
Um I put in the bottom where to find you in case people want to follow you on Twitter. And you also have a Discord, and you also have a subscription, so definitely check that out if you're interesting if you're interested on following Venu.
But yeah, man, really appreciate you coming on to here. This is a This is a great chat. Better to do the longer one than the shorter one last time, and we got some earnings after hours at Applied Materials reporting today, so that's probably going to be a little bit of a market move for semiconductors. But yeah, man, appreciate you coming on to here.
Again, guys, we're do we do I do my stream um at 2:45 p.m.
Monday through Friday. There's going to be no stream tomorrow, but I am doing a I am doing like a little reunion stream with Shy and Logical for Investing with the Boys tomorrow morning. I believe it's going to be like 11:30 a.m. Eastern time, so go ahead and check that one out on the channel. Really appreciate you coming on, Venu. Take care, guys. Thank you, Sam. Thank you for having me.
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