NIO Revenue Up 123%. Xpeng Revenue Down 17%. Same Market. Same Quarter. Here's Why.

Ajouté : 2026-05-31

[00:00:19]Before we get into today's stories, guys, I want to share something really special that I've been working on. I wrote a book. It's a full-length novel called Dialtone, a modern salesman's story, and it's essentially a novel for everyone who's quietly wondering if there's more. So, the book the ebook, I should say, is now available for pre-order on Amazon. I'll link that in the description.

[00:00:45]The hard copy is set to release right alongside the ebook on June 12th. Link in the description again, guys. Now, let's get into today's video. So, guys, welcome back. I've been out I had Dell Technologies World in Vegas Dell Technologies World in Vegas last week life, but today I'm back loud and proud because a lot happened while I was gone.

[00:01:11]NIO ES9 deliveries started yesterday, and the stock is moving. Ferrari just revealed its first ever electric car, and the Chinese internet destroyed it.

[00:01:22]NIO just reported its historic Q1 earnings, while XPeng had a rough quarter, which their earnings came out today. I'm going to be comparing both, and PCE inflation hit 3.8%, while Wall Street quietly profits from the war that it publicly says that it wants to end. Thursday, May 28th, guys.

[00:01:45]Coming back from a long weekend. Let's get into it. I'm Obi. This is Courtside Financial. Let me start where your portfolio lives. Yesterday, NIO kicked off ES9 deliveries one day ahead of schedule. The ES9 is China's largest pure electric SUV, basically an executive suite on wheels, and NIO did something that nobody saw coming with the marketing. They hired an MBA legend, Yao Ming, as chief experience officer for the ES9. So, guys, think about that move. Yao Ming is 7'6".

[00:02:22]He's the most recognizable Chinese basketball player who ever lived. He retired in 2011 and has stayed consistently respected and beloved in China in a way that definitely transcends sports. Putting Yao Ming in the ES9, the biggest SUV in China, is definitely a visual that writes itself.

[00:02:43]The tallest man in Chinese sports and the largest car in the Chinese market.

[00:02:48]That's not accidental. The market responded. NIO surged 9.32% in US trading and 10.45% in Hong Kong. The stock snapped a 15% monthly slide in a single session, and the demand signal for management was striking. The higher-priced Executive Signature Edition and Horizon Special Edition trims are selling far above expectation. That's a margin story. The buyers coming in for the ES9 are not shopping at the base price. They're loading up. That flows directly to vehicle margins and revenue per unit.

[00:03:25]NIO pre-built over 6,000 ES9 units before launch day to enable a rapid delivery ramp. That's operational confidence. You don't build inventory that aggressively unless you believe that the demand is there.

[00:03:39]ES9 deliveries, they're happening right now, and the momentum is real. Now, let me give you the earnings comparisons that your portfolio needs because NIO and XPeng both reported Q1 2026 results, and they tell completely different stories about where the Chinese EV market is headed. Neo first, revenue came in at $3.7 billion up 123% year-over-year. Deliveries were 83,465 units up 98.3% vehicle margin improved to 18.8% the fourth consecutive quarterly improvement. The GAAP net loss narrowed dramatically to 332 million yuan compared to 6.75 billion yuan a year ago.

[00:04:25]Management guided Q2 deliveries of 110,000 to 115,000 vehicles, 53 to 60% year-over-year growth. Bank of America doubled its Neo stake directly after the call. Morgan Stanley and Bernstein both upgraded. Now, Xpeng. Revenue came in at $1.89 billion down 17.6% year-over-year. Deliveries were 62,682 units down 33.3% year-over-year. Their gross margin was actually 20.6% slightly better than Neo's, but the top line story is difficult. Revenue falling while a competitor's revenue more than doubled in the same market. That's a stark contrast. Here's the honest context for Xpeng. Q1 2025 was their strongest quarter ever. So, the comparison base is pretty brutal. Their newer models like the GX and the P7 Plus are starting to ramp and the Volkswagen relationship with Xpeng's touring chip powering Volkswagen vehicles in China, it's a revenue stream that doesn't show up cleanly in vehicle delivery numbers.

[00:05:37]But, here's the investment thesis question your portfolio needs to answer.

[00:05:41]In the same Chinese EV market in the same quarter, Neo doubled revenue while Xpeng contracted. These are not macro conditions favoring one uh car company over the other. They're competing in the same environment and producing pretty much opposite results.

[00:05:59]That divergence tells you something real about brand strength, product mix, and execution. Nio's premium positioning above 300,000 yuan is protecting margins in a market where everyone below that price point is fighting for scraps.

[00:06:13]Xpeng has traditionally played more in the mass market and mass market in China right now is the kill zone. Now, let me tell you about the most entertaining automotive story of the week because it directly connects to why Chinese EVs are winning and why Western legacy brands are struggling. Ferrari unveiled the Luce on May 25th in Rome, their first fully electric production car. Four doors, five seats, designed with input from former Apple design chief Jony Ive.

[00:06:44]Over 1,000 horsepower, top speed of over 300 km/h.

[00:06:50]Price is 550,000 euros. That's about 645,000 dollars. In China at current rates, that's approximately 4.7 million yuan.

[00:07:02]And the reaction to this car was immediate and brutal. Italy's Deputy Prime Minister posted on X, "It looks nothing like a Ferrari. Is this supposed to be innovation? Who knows what Enzo Ferrari would say?" Ferrari's former chairman Luca publicly said that he was shocked by the design. And then the Chinese internet got a hold of it. The Chinese internet compared the Luce to the Nissan Leaf to a Fiat Multipla, which is widely considered one of the ugliest cars ever made. People joked that you could buy 10 Xiaomi Wy U7 GT SUVs, each with nearly 1,000 horsepower and a 101 kWh battery for the price of the Luce. Ferrari's stock dropped 8% on launch day, but here's the deeper story from the Chinese internet this week that nobody in English media is talking about. A 36 KR analysis titled Chinese EVs can't copy the Ferrari Luce and they absolutely shouldn't try made a fascinating point. The Luce was clearly designed with China in mind. Ferrari's chief commercial officer literally said at the launch that they're targeting someone who already owns an electric vehicle. That's definitely China, the biggest uh EV market in the world.

[00:08:25]That's exactly the Chinese premium EV buyer that they're after. But the article's argument is this. Nio's ET9 starts at 818,000 yuan. Huawei's Maestro S800 top trim just crossed 1 million yuan and sold 1,147 units in April, outselling Porsche.

[00:08:44]BYD's YangWang U9 supercar goes for 1.8 million. China's ultra-luxury EV segment already exists. It's already growing and it's already being served by Chinese brands with technology that Western legacy automakers are simply scrambling to match. Ferrari's Luce is trying to enter a luxury EV market that China has already moved on without them. And at 4.7 million yuan for a car that the Chinese internet is comparing to a Nissan Leaf, they have a very hard road ahead. So, the lesson for your portfolio is this. The premium EV market in China is not waiting for Western validation.

[00:09:30]It's already here and it's already dominated by Chinese brands. So, two connected macro stories today. First, the Fed's preferred inflation measure PCE came in at 3.8% for April, the highest reading in nearly 3 years. The Iran war is still sitting in every consumer's fuel bill, every grocery receipt, and every airline ticket. No rate cuts coming. Bank of America already moved their forecast to the second half of 2027 for the first cut.

[00:10:01]Second, and this is the story that should make every investor think. CNBC's market coverage today featured a segment with a headline that cuts right to the core of why the war is still happening.

[00:10:14]Wall Street wants the Iran war to end, but it's also the reason why it isn't ending. The argument is simple and uncomfortable. Defense contractors are posting record revenues. Energy companies are printing money on $103 oil. Semiconductor companies building out AI infrastructure are benefiting from the massive government spending justified by the current geo- geopolitical climate. So, the financial incentives to keep the war going, unfortunately, and this sucks to say, but are enormous. And many of those incentives flow directly to companies in your portfolio. This doesn't mean that the war is permanent. It means that the resolution is certainly complicated by who's making money from it. When you wonder why peace talks keep stalling, follow the money. For your Neo position specifically, resolution of the Hormuz situation is the single best catalyst for rate cuts, which is the single biggest catalyst for growth stock re-rating. The war ending is the most bullish macro event possible for Neo stock. The fact that Wall Street is also profiting from the war continuing is the tension that your portfolio is currently living in right now. All right, guys, before we go, Dial Tone is on Amazon right now for pre-order, ebook available for pre-order immediately. It'll be automatically delivered on June 12th, hard copy scheduled to release on June 12th alongside of it. A novel for everyone who's quietly wondering if there's more. Link is in the description. Now, Nio ES9 deliveries are live. Yao Ming is the face of it. Stock was up 9% yesterday. Nio's Q1 revenue grew 123% while Xpeng's fell 17.6%.

[00:12:09]Same market, same quarter, completely different stories. Ferrari's first electric car got roasted by its own former chairman and compared to a Nissan Leaf on the Chinese internet. PCE inflation hit 3.8% while Wall Street quietly profits from the war it publicly says that it wants to end. Thursday, May 28th, the comeback is here. I'm Obi, this is Courtside Financial.

[00:12:36]Try to stay Courtside. Goodbye.